Key words: climate change, coastal defence, risk, interdisciplinanty

Transcription

1 MRIBX: GLIS'EATIE; CHANGE, GOASTAL PROTECTION AXD RISK MAk;AGEII.IIEWT 1X YNOIRTH-\VEST GER%lAN"I! B. ~chuhardt', M. ~chirmr', S. ~akknist~, D.P. ~ ~ ~ A. ~tsnr', l ~ W., ~ ls~r~? I. ~rabmannf..-j. ~rabrmann'. M. ~aarmann~. B. ~ ahnf H ~inrihs'. D. ~raft', T. ~ n o ~ H. ~ ~ a ~ n ~, S. ~ai', ~, V. ~ ~r', C. 0tt6, H.P. ~trs', A. ~isnr-stinr7, S. wittig2, I. yu6, ~immrmann' "io~onsult Schzlchardt & Scholl GbR, Rdr-Bischofl-Str. 54, D-2875M~"mn Institut of Evolufiona~ Biology and Ecolo~gy, Collg ofkincs, Uuivt.r--si@ of Brmn, D Brmt.n ' INFRAkf, Voorstr Wg 28, NL-8316 PT Marhss GKSS Rsarch Cntr, Mm-Plank-Str Gsthacht Fra~zzizls Institut, Univrsi~ oj-hannovr, Ninburgr Str. 4, Wannol)r "nstliut of liconomis, Univrsi~ of Brmn, Brmn Rsarch Cntr Sustainabili~ (artc), Unzvrsiv ofsrmn, D Brmn ' Rsarch Institut Jur Knowldg Systms (NKSj, Abtstracxt 2a, NL-LS Maastricht "~sarch Gnir Jclich (MT), D Jillich Ky words: climat chang, coastal dfnc, risk, intrdisciplinanty Th intrdisciplinaiy KRlM projct has gnratd orintation and policy-rlvant knowldg for th futur task of risk managmnt in coastal protction fforts undr conditions of climat chang. KRIM includd svn subprojcts from th social scincs and natural scincs. A Dcision Support Systm is undr dvlopmnt. Th cntral findings hr ar that th adaptation to climat chang currntly ndd can b achivd using stablishd stratgis and stnicturs, providd that th acclratd rat of ris in man sa lvl is accptd as a "nw paramtr" by th political and administrativ systms involvd. In ordr to support this accptanc, th discussions on climat chang and th dsk of stom tids, dbats which hav largly bn pursud sparat on from th othr, will hav to b brought togthr. This procss has alrady bgun but nds to b furthr intnsifid. In ordr to prpar for mdiumand long-tm adjustmnt to climat chang, th discussion alrady startd on th furthr dvlopmnt of th coastlin protction stratgy will hav to b continud and xpandd, ultimatly to culminat in intgratd risk managmnt; financing will hav to b guarantd fos th rsarch rqriird in this contxt. 2 Aim of tk rsfsrch in tk -framwork 0% DEB(k1M Du to thir far-raching impact on natiiral and socio-conomic systms, climat chang and climat variability prsnt major global challngs. In viw of th potntial ricks causd by climat chang, climt impact rsarch has bcom incrasingly important. Against this background, th goal of th Gman climat impact rsarch program, DEKLIM C, is to study th consquncs of climat chang and climat variability in slctd cological and socioconomic systms in ordr to bttr undrstand th factors that dtmin thir wlnrabiliw. Th climat impact rsarch program aims to produc policy-rlvant howldg that will hlp to improv rk capacity of socitis to cop with th ffcts of climat chang. Morovr, DEKLIM C placs mphasis on intnsiv co-opration and communication with stakholdrs, potntial iisrs oe th rsarch rsults, and th public at larg.

2 Sinc climat impüct rsarch has to dal mlitb complx Intractions btwii ph>rsicai, cological. socio-conomic and political sjjstins, th KRIM rsarch group is charactrisd by intaidisiplina- rsarch co-opration btc~:t=r: social and namral scintists, hsd on som prvious work (Schucbardt and Schimr 2001: 1007a; 2003) th KRIM prcfjct aims at providing bow-how for sociq9s hhr task of "riisk rnmagmnz in coastal protction undsr climat chang conditions", giving spcial attntion not only to th natural scincs, nginring and csnoi-zics, but also to th procrsss of prcption, comrnunicatlon, intyrtation, orgmisation md hnding. ConRict potntials, dcisiun-makiilg stmchrs md possibl solutions ar analysd. 'I'h objctivs of KRIM ar to analys th consquncs of an acclrdd ris in sa lvl and intnsifid xtrm incidnts for diffrnt natural and social sttings within th No&h Sa coastal rgion, to xamin individual 2nd socital prcption and communication of th possibl consquncs of a sa lvl ris and th rising risk of dik failur as wll as to analys th implicit conflict potntials, th dcision-making stmcturs and th possibl solutions, and to dvlop on this basis a Dcision Support Systm (DSS) for coastal protction managmnt as a rnthodological instmmnt fsr intgrativ analysis and as a tool to sugport public discows on th handling of th impacts of climat chang on coastal rgions. 'Th study ara is th Wsr-Jad rgion in Nordl1n-n Gmmy, including th Lowr Wsr s.tua.ry, th Jad-Bay, th Waddn Sa, th marshs, th banir island Wangroog, th cltis of Brmn, Brmrhavn and Wilhlmshavn and som ssnallr citis and towns. 3 Strrictrir of th prsjct 2nd approach Th task dfind for th KRIM projct rquirs an analysis of functional intrrlationships btwn natural and social systms. Basd on th ralisation that sociv prcivs th stat of its nvironinnt through a filtring procss for prcption and communication (Bckr t at., 1998) and that an activation of its instmmnts is th rsult of complx opinion-foming procsss, svral discipliiis ar involvd as subprojcts (SP) in th KRIM projct (subproj ct ladrs in brackts) SP "Climat Chang aiid Hydrodynamics aiid Moql-iology" (Iris Grabmann; Ditr P. Eppl, GMSS Rsarch Cntr); SP ""Climat Chang and "Coastal Protction" (Claus Limmrmam, Franzius Instihit, Univrsity of Hannovr); SP "Climat Chang and Ecology in th Coastal Rgion" (Michal Schirmr, Univrsity of Brmri); SP "Climat Chang, Political-Ahinistrativ Rgulation and Coastal Protction (PAS)" (Hllmuth Lang, Univrsity of Brmn); SP "Rgional Economic Risk and Rspons Analysis of Climat Chang Impacts" (Wolfram Elsnr, Univrsity of Brmn), SP ""Clirnat Chang in th Public Sphr" (Hans Ptr Ptrs, Jülich Rsarch Cntr), SP "Intgrativ Analysis and Dcision Suppod Systm" (Michal Schirms, Univrsiv of Brmn, and Bastian Scfiuchardl, BioConsult).

3 Using rsults compild by th IPCC and in a downscaling s~dq. by th CKSS, th joint scnario inciuds (partly saconally diffrntiatdj: ris of man sa Ivl: +M cm; Inctas of tidal rang: -75 cm (WT +G5 sm: LS 1-40 m); xtrm stom-slirg: +200 cm: axr tmpramr- +.8"C; prcipitation: + 10%; wind vlociq: +'B% (Uc-Fw). 'l'his scnario bms th common basis for assssing tki consquncs of climat chang. Inttllfmriv risk concpt: Tki concpt of risk is usd in nginring and th nahiral scincs as wll as in th social scincs. It is thortically applicabl for all disciplins invohd in KRIM and rprsnts a tool for intgration within KRIM. Basd on th diffrnt disciplinary dfinitions, a joint dfinition taking into account th various aspcts has bn fomulatd: Risk is a mntal construct to haractris huzards mor prcisb. It d m not hav a cl'irct connfrpart in rali~ and can b construtd onb within a spcijic contxt. luztr,lftion cnn h th prim mchnnism (public domain) along with scintific mthods. Th procss is cntrd on th apprhnsions of damag husd on dangr, th quality and yuantiq of which cun b injluncd by socital an&r indiviclual dcisions and which rguir acting undr conditions of uncrtain~. In th prspctiv ofth tchnical, natural and conomic scincs th two cnhal catgoris qfvisk ar th xtnt ofdamag and th probubiliv of occurrnc. Darnag may b difind in d(;fsrrnt ways by diffv discklins. In th prspctiv of th social scincs th risk concpt also inluds th aspcts qlrrisk xprinc, v.i&~k prcytion and risk communicution. All of tha aspcts hav to b includd in modrn risk rnanagrnnt. Th main part of th work was to idntify scintific, political-administrativ and public risk constmcts and to xamin th rlationships htwn ths thr risk corrstmcts.. Th scintific rislc constmt has bn gnratd by implmnting nw scintific approachs which ar not in us in th xisting scintific risk constmct, whras th xisting political-adnninistrativ and th public risk constmcts hav bn analysd using various tchniqus found in th social scincs. Although intgrativ analysis and th construction of th Dcision Support Systm hav not yt bn finalisd, th following rsults can b fomulatd as th main findings: S'cintEfic risk construct: W hav gnratd a scintific risk constmct in th KRIM projct. Among othr faturs, it o maks uss of scnarios drawn frorn clirnat rsarh, calculats th prohabiliq of occuninc for damag incidnts (probabilistics), analyss th potntial damag in th vnt af inundation, mploys an xpandd concpt of "damag" which, in addition to losss in capital goods and fixd assts, also taks account of rductions in valu addition and cological damag, and nabls th us of cost-bnfii malyss as dcision-making critria. A constmct of risk of this typ hac to dat had no countrpart in th political-administrativ systm. Dcisions in rgard to coastal protction in north-wstm Gmany ar rachd on a~otlir basis. In additlon to a multi~rxd =f indivib~al rsults (Grzbmann b a!. 2000;!%4ai t al., 2004; Schimr t al., 2004; Elsnr t al. 20U4): which ar discsissd In th publications

4 prpard by rh subprojcts, ih follouing rsults rprsnt th ky findings of th intgrativ analysis Eor th suprordinar qustionsr An acclratd ris in man sa lvl diminisbs th prsnt s a k lvl ~ along th coast and rquirs suitabl adaptiv ffoorts in th fild of coastal protction. Th acclrating ris in man sa Lvl is th cntral Paramtr in climat chang for thc Gman NoaZ:h Sa oüst; its w~lnrabilitgr as rgards changs in otbr paramtrs is rlativly modst. Evn whr tl7 probabili~ of failur ic kgpt constant by strngthning ch diks, an lvatd sa lvl i~nplis an incras in th potntial damag lvl, sinc watm inrom? would b gratr. Th dmag potntials following dik failur diffr widly, dpmding on whr tk failur occurs. Th potntial is fairly srnall in som zons in th largr rgion bing xamind, This is also tm whli an xtndd damag concpt is applid, i.q a oncpt which considrs not only th dirct damag (proprty damag) hut also cological darnag and rductions in conomic outpart. Ths diffrncs in damag according to th aras affctd (a phnomnon which xists vn without climat chang) ar not takn into axount in th practics mntly applid whn dimrzsioning coastal protction facilitis in th rgion undr study, Th ml is: ""qual safty for vryon" or ""yual safty against fslilur at all points9', Natblral adaptation procsss dich rduc th probabiliq of dik failur would includ a concornitant ris in th tidlands aild at th forshor. At prsnt on camot say with cr6aint-y whthr this will happn, but it Is likly, Projcts to supporl. this ffct would includ intnsiaid constmction of rclamation filds to stabilis th forskor and stopping any rwioval of rr~atriai from tb tidal flats an$ th forshor. Additional rsarcb is rquird hr, howvr. Risk analysis as dvlopd in th m IM projct (using an xtndd darnag concpt) rprsnts a procss with whicb to gnrat a rational dision-making basis for th dimnsionirrg of th coastal protction facilitis; mthodically it is wll suitd for linking with th scnarios usd in climat rsarch, with th implid uncrtaintis, It rnaks rio diffrrrc whthr h "qual safty for vryon" philosophy is rtalnd or cost-bnfit considrations lad to dirnnsioning which diffrs according to th Zon affctd. Thr ar various stratgis availabl with which an adaptation of tb coastal protction systm to account for acclratd ris in sa lvl can b ffctd. On of tlis is a rdoubling of fforts, following th xisting dik lin and slcting thos loations with th most favowabl cost-bnfit ratio (and with th widst accpta~ic, as will b discussd blow), Th rction or ativation of a scond dik lin and th constmction of additional flood banirs in crtain locations can mak sns as a long-tm augmntation and to limit th potntial for darnag. Th financial rquirmnts for coüstal protction will incras in rh flutu~ with an acclratd ris in sa lvl, Statmnts as to th probability of an incidnt and as to th damag to b xpctd ar subjct to rlativly larg uncrtaintts; this has io b takn into account whn using th rsults.

5 In th vry lang tm viw (mor than 200 yars) th xtnt to which th ris -in sa lvl can b countractd in th rgion may rach its limits, dpnding on th furthr progrss of climat chang. Pzlbllc rks k ca~sfr-t?icf: Communication of risks du to climat chang and stom tids in thr mdia and th stimats hld by th public at larg mak up what w rfr to as th "public risk constmct". Such constmcts cannot b gnrally undrstood as popularisd vrsions of th corrsponding scintific risk constmcts; th systm of communications with th public colours maning and significanc according to its own st of mls. On th subjcts of climat chang and stom tid risk thr ar two clarly sparat discussions among th public and in th mdia. Thr has hardly bn any ovrlapping (at last at th tim th survy was conductd). In addition to a multitud of individual findings (Ptrs and Hinrichs, 2004) which wr dpictd in th subprojct publications, th following ar among th important rsults in th outcom of th intgrativ analysis for th suprordinat qustions: Th discussion on clima chang clarly shows th influnc of scinc and th scintific risk constnict. Both th mdia and th gnral public hav adoptd th majority position among climat rsarchrs and ar assuming that global climat chang is taking pla and that tbns is (also) du to anthropognic influnc. This hang is associatd with srious risks. Thr is no indication of xtmalisation of rsponsibili~, but thr is grat radinss to undrtak action (at last as xprssd vrball y). Th mdia and th public focus almost xclusivcly on mltigation in ordr ho countr th risks associatd with climat hang and thus concntrat on avoiding climat hang; adqtation plays almost no part at all in th dbat (at th tim of th suwy). Quit striking is th high dgr of confidnc which th mdia and th populac placd in scinc as rgards finding th "ttnih" and diagnosing problms. Public discussion on th risks associatd with stom tids is in many cass influncd by th rgional oprativs in coastal protction. Scinc dos not play any significant rol hr. Th rgional political and administrativ instiktions rsponsibl for coastal protctlon ar far rnor prsnt in mdia discussion than ar th primay scintifi sourcs. Thr is Consnsus that a stom tid risk dos xist, but thr is also ugrmnt that this risk is currntly bing rducd to an accptabl lvl by coastal protction projicts. Th plablic and political-administrativ risk constnzcts for t-h stsm tid risks ar not idntisal at th rgional lvl but ar largly coqatibl. 'This is also mad clar by tlin high dgr of trust which coastal protction (as part of th pofiticaladministrativ systm) njoys in th thr aras sbdid - Brmn, Wilhlmshavn and Wangrland. Ths two discussions hav hardly bn linkd at 31% as yt, ithr in th mdia or in pllt)iic awarnss. Altkiough clirnat chang is sn as bing unavoidabl and as an ""ndmgmnt", thr is hardly any concm about th incras in stom tid risks as a rsult of dimat chang. r 'Th public assums that coastal protction will b Al to mastr th challngs rsulting frorn cllmat chang by applying st&lishd stratgis. It is obvious that abov all coastal protction masurs which continu th cunnt stratgy will (and would b) accptd.

6 r Th grat dgr of tmst njojd by coastal pmtctioia prsnts bo-th an opportuni~ and a problrn, St offrs oastal protction on tii on band th chanc to gain support in ovrcomit~g xtn~al rsistanc. On th othr hand it also implis a considrabl mount of obstrnacy -vjbn changs imposd om th ou@id ar to b implmntd. Th political-administrativ systm (PAS) ~ ith its oprativs in poiitics, adminiskation alld dik associations, all of wl-iicfi play a fairly larg rol in th rgion s-kidid, has organisd coastal protction in th ap.a studid in such a way that no inundatlons hav takn plac sin~ l%2* Th accptanc of coastal protction arnong th public is rmarkably high, On thing whih maks a considrabl contribtrtion to accptanc is th cunnt ""sf~ philosophy" (Kslizz, 2004) adhrd to in coastal protction, namly "qual safty for vryoni9. In addition to a multitrd of individual findings which ar dpictd in th subprsjct pubhcations (Lang t al in prp.), th follovu-hg rsults, as th output of th intgratlv analysis, ar of considrabl irnportanc for th suprordinat qustions: r o Accptanc of th mthods (.g. probabilistic risk malysis) and th rsults of th scintific risk constmct is currntly rlativly low in th political-adininistratlvt: systm, Mntion is mad of th continuing nd fbr furthr dvlopmnt of th mthods; thr is still an ovrly high dgr of uncrtaliity in rgard to tb xtnt and natur of clirnat chang, Th intll-lationsliips btwn th dlscussions on climat chang and on stom tid risks ar largly prcivd by oprativs in tln political-administrativ systm, but taking appropriat action is still r~ctd du to th uncrtaintis as rgards dvlopmnt, ths still bing too grat. ""ACt only on th basis of sur lmowldg" is namd as an axiom for action; tbis is not ongmnt with th iinplicitly uncfiain rsults of climat rsarch. Th oprativs in th political-administrativ systm ar putting thir faith primarily in continuiq in th systm and thus assum that thy will b abl to mastr th consqarncs of cliim& chang witbin th cours of ""bsinss as usual". Th coastal protction administration assigns rsponsibility for risk accptanc to th political sctor of tb political-administrativ systm whil dlgating to administrativ coastal rsarch rsponsibility for th yustion of risk stimatioii. Both ar Sn by th coastal protction adrninistration mor or lss as xtmal factors to which stratgy dcisioizs ar dlgatd. For th administrativ coastai protction systril th primary and dcisiv qustion is nsuring and xpanding tb financial framwork. At prsnt thos who would potntially b affctd by dik failur ar not dirctly involvd in dfining th safty standard. Instad, this is don by th politicaladministrativ systm. But thos affctd also mak only a vry small contribution ro th t-quird funding. Th rsidnts of Grmany as a whol bar th largst part of th costs. Itzt~*dpndr?ci~~ a7~7oi.rg ih risk constrztcts Th thr risk constmcts clarly influnc ach othr. Propr account will hav to b takn of this in any htur changs in th coastal protction stratgis.

7 Th (prsni) adaptation to accommodat climat chang can also b ralisd with th stablishd dimnsioning procdurs, th stablishd coastal protction stratgy 2nd th currnt organisation, assurniny th approprictt incras in financial rsourcs.?o achiv this it is ncssav that th acclratd ris in sa lvl b accptd by th political-administrativ systm as a "nw paramtr". To support this, th discussions on climat chang and th risk of stom tids (and coastal protction), now bing pursud largly sparatly, will hav to b drawn closr togthr. Th ralisation of th ncssary adaptiv masurs in coastal protclion might xacrbat xisting problms. Accptanc can b promotd by th mrging of th discussions on climat chang and coastal protction, as mntiond abov. Ovr th long tm th cunnt, linar coastal protction concpt incrass th risk that th potntial for damag will bcom vr gratr as th diffrnc btwn th watr lvl and land lvation bhind tli diks widns. Th dvlopmnt and stablishmnt of zond coastal protction (.g. scond lins of diks) can rduc th risk. Th implmntation of zond coastal protction should b supportd by its bing fully considrd in land us planning procdurs. Cost-bnfit analyss should b mployd as an additional dcision-making critrion in th fild of coastal protction. In th mdium and long tms th futur challngs rsulting from climat chang itslf and from oprating paramtrs which continu to chang (including limitd financial rsourcs, fairnss in rsourc distributiori, incrasing th fficincy of public invstmnts, dmographic chang) will prsumably bttr b managd if th cunnt coastal protction stratgy is furthr rfind to bcom a risk managmnt systm within th framwork of an intgratd coastal Zon managmnt (ICZM) conpt. In spit of an ongoing nd for furthr dvlopmnt, th probabilistic risk analysis is in principl capabl of dlivring data rlvant for planning purposs in rgard to xisting and futur risks (applying th scnario tchniqu in prdicting th lattr). Thr is still nd for additional rsarch hr, howvr. Any xpansion of th cunnt coastal protction stratgy should b undflakn stp by stp and should b accompanid by a frank and opn dialogu in ordr not to ndangr th high dgr of public accptanc of coastal protction, Planning in th futur should b considrd in rgard to its "snsitivity to climatrlatd phnomna". This is to avoid rducing th adaptiv capacity of th rgion and instad to incras it whrvr possibl. htgratd rzsk managmnt Although (prsnt) adaptation to th consquncs of climat chang could also b achivd with th currnt coastal protction stratgy, that stratgy should, for th rasons lucidatd abov, b transfomd to bcom an intgratd risk managmnt concpt ovr th mdium to long tm. This chang could b managd in svral diffrnt ways. Th cntral diffrnc to currnt srratgy is th dtmination and considration of risk as a product of probability of occunnc and potntial damag An approach such as this is alrady bing usd in Grat Britain, th Wthrlands and othr countris and has also bn proposd in Cmany (Kunz, 2004 La.). Bfor introducing probabilistic risk analysis it will b ncssary, in addition to

8 1 Should this incolporat a chang in paradigm frorn ih cul~nt "qqual sak~" to "qual risk"? 3. 1s this I;O b associatd with a chang from linar to zond coasdira ps-otction? (Also possibl wihout prolsabilictic risk assssmnt.) 3. Should this b joind witb opn communications rgarding tli rsidual risk andior th "accptd risk lt-l"? 4, Should cost-bnfit coansidrations thn also b includd in th dtnninatlon of "kqi "lacptd risk"? (This is indd an irnplid componnt in th stl-akgy at prsllt, but it is not mntiond so opnly.) Th confidnc which th public placs in currnt coastal protction practics and in tbat part of th (rgional) political-administrativ systm whih is rsponslbl for coastal prottion is xtraordinarily high. A haw in th stratgy sliould b undrtatn gradually and should b flarikld by opn dialog so as to not ndangr this confidnc. Dcision iyuppo~*t Systm: In th DSS a stmcturd approach towards consquncs of an acclratd sa lvl ris with its possibl ffts on oastal protction managinilt is coinbind with advancd inhmation tchnology. Th rsult is an instmmnt that facilitats th procssing, analysis and (graphical) prsntatioil of information and which ats as a howldg bas. Th DSS, whih is still undr dvlopmnt, is a computr-basd instmmnt intgrating knowldg from many diffrnt but intrrlatd disciplins (.g.: hydr-odynamics, cology, conomics, risk managmnt, social scincs tc.). Espcially th intgral rprsntation of knowldg about both physical and soial procsss maks a dision support systm ushl for both intgrativ sci~ific analysis and participativ policy-rnalcing procsss. Prim focus in th dvlopmnt of th Dcision Support Systm is on th intgration of knowldg, modls and data from th various disciplins involvd In th mim-projct (Schuchardt and Scliimr, 2002). Th KRIIM-DSS is bing dvlopd on th basis of an application fiamwork for intgmtd Zonal Dcision Support Systms (Hahn md Engln, 3000) and has stimulatd th intrdisciplinary rsarch procss. ih intrdisciplinary rsarch projct KIPIM has shown that th adaptation capacity of tln rgion is stimatd to b high, but that thr is an obvious nd for action rgarding th coastal protction systm. Th (currnt) adaptation to climat chang can also b accomplishd using th convntional dimnsioning tchniqus, th stablishd coastal protction stratgy and th xisting organisation, providd that th acclrating ris in sa lvl is accptd by th political-administrativ systm as a "nw paramtr9' and that sufficint financial rsourcs ar amarkd for th purpos. In ordr to support this, tb discussions on cllmat chang and on th risk of storan tids, conductd largly sparatly in th past, should b rlatd mor closly on to tb othr. This procss has alrady bgun but should b hrthr promotd and intnsifid. In ordr to prpar for mdium- to long-tm accommodation to clirnat chang, th discussion on furthr dvlopmnt of coastal protction stratgy should b continud and movd in th dirction of an intgratd risk manaymnt concpt, Funding will hav to b pro"idd for th rsarch which is still rquird.

9 31 projct gnrats nfivorkd orintation arid how-how ndd to tak action to rspond tu tb irnpacts of climati- chang in th coastal rgioii of tn Grnan Bigh. In addlcion to classical rsarch into th impact of climat on both th natrral and sultivatd aras in th countvsid, th ffcts on tb socio-conomic systm ar also analysd, Socisty's prcption an$ rastion panms in rspons to hanging risk undr conditions of uricrtainp ar dgictd on th basis of modls arid. in a dcision support sjstm, ar conlakd with th ffcts ~f posibl prvntiv arid rmdial masurs. Th main issu of slvanc to policymaking is ""how to dal witli th risk". Tb intgratd naral and social scinc analysis of th snsitiviv of th natural and social stinlcturs to climat alrd th analysls of th options for prvntiv risk and coastal protction managmnt supply findings on th rsillnc of tfa nahral md social stmchrrs. This analysis also provids insighls into thos gmups within socity which ar involvd in risk managrnnt and th coastal psotction rnmagmnt psocss; it also shds light on tb intractions among thos groups (govmanc). Bkr, E., Vack, A., and Whling, P., 1998, Mnsch-Umwlt-Systm und Indikatorn inr xischhaltign Enhvicklung, MAB-Mittilungn, Q, Elsnr, W., Ott, G., and Yu, I., 2004, Rgionalökonomisch Risikn ds Klimawandls, Projktbricht mm Tilprojlct 4 irn BMBF-Vrbundvorhabn Klimawandl und prävntivs Risiko- und Küstnschutzmanag~ an dr dutschn Nordskust (mim). Grabmmn, I., Grabmann, H.J., and Eppl, D., 2004, Klimawandl und hydrodynamisch und rnopphologisch Auswirlangn im Küstnbrich. Projkctbricht zum Tilprojkt 1 im BMBF-Vrbundvorhabn Klimawandl und prävntivs Risiko- und Kustnschutzmanagmnt an dr dutschn Nordsküst (KRIMI. Hahn, B., and Engln, G., 2000, Concpts of DSS systrns. In: Dcision Suppo& Systms (DSS) for rivr basin managmnt, BfG-Vranstaltungn , Koblnz-Brlin, pp Ibz, H., 2004, Sichrhitsphilosophi fir dn ICustnschutz, Jahrbuch dr Hafnbautchnischn Gsllschaft 54, Lang, H., Haamann, M., Wisnr-Stinr, A., and Voosn, E., 2005, Klirnawandl und pravntivs Risiko- und Küstnschutzmanagmnt an dr dutschn Nordsküst (mm): Tilprojkt Klimaandrung, Küstnschutz und politisch-administrativs Systm. Endbricht an BMBF. Mai, S., 2004, Klimafolgnanalys und Risilco für in fistnzon arn Bispil dr Jad-Wsr-Rgion, Mittilungn ds Franzius-lnstikuts 91, Mai, S., Elsnr, A., Myr, V. and Zimmmann, C., 2004, Klimawandl und prävntivs Risiko- und Kiistnschutzmanag~nnt an dr dutschn Nordslcüst (KRIM): Tilprojkt 2. Klimaändmng und Küstnschutz. Endbricht an BMBF. Ptrs, H.P., and Hinrichs, H., 2004, Intpprtationn ds globaln Klirnawandls durch di Öffntlichkit. Konsqunzn für di Risikowahrnhmung und di Implmntirung ins vorbugndn Küstnschutzs. Projktbricht nxm Tilprojkt 6 im BMBF-Vrburrdvorhabn Klimawandl und prävntivs Risiko- und Kustnschutzmanagmnt an dr dutschn Nordskflst (WZIM). Schimr, M., and Schuchardt, B., 2001, Assssmnt of Climat Chang Impact on th Wsr Eshaary Rgion: an intrdisciplinaq approach, Climat Rsarch, i8, Schimr, M., and Schuchardt, B. 200" Ästuar und Klimawandl. In: Lozan, J.L., E. Rachor, K. Ris, J. Sundmann, H. v. Wstdagn (ds.) Wamslgnäl aus Nords und Wattnmr - Ein akhll Umwltbilanz, GEO-Vrlag, Hamburg, Schimr, M., Kraft, D., and Wittig, S., 2004, Klimawandf und pravntivs Risiko- und Küstnschutzmanagnnnt an dr dutschn Nordsküst (KmM): Tilprojkt 3. Kastn6kologisch Aspkt ds Klirnawandls. Endbriht an BMISF, Schirmr, M., and Schuchardt, B., in prp., Klimawandl und pravntivs Risiko- und Kustnschutzmanagmnt an dr dutschn Nordsküst ( M): Synthsbricht. Endbricht an BMBF, Schachardt, B., an8 Schimr, M., 2002, Clirnat chang: dvlopmnt of intgrativ managmnt tools hr caastal protction on th Gman NoI-tb Sa coast.- IHPJOHP-Bricht, Sondrhft i3, Schuchardt, B., and Schimr, M., 2003, Impact of Climat Chzlng On th Wsr Eshrary Rgion - a Cas Shrdy, Irr: W.J Wofc K. Essink; A. Kllmarrn; M.A van Lraw (ds.) Challngs to th Waddn Sa ara, Croningn, Sckuchardt, B., and Schirmr, M., 2005 (ds.), Klirnawandl und Kust Di Zuhnfi dr Untwsngion, Spnngr-Vrlag, Hidlbrg, 1 - J4 1.