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Frank Wiggins
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1 VV SA149MJC659 RUQMHR D R USBL K /1 199!3. ZNY SSSSS ZZH R 1!?124Z JIJ. 79!'". AM~BASSY KABUL TO R UHC/SCSTAT WASHDC IMMD lat INFO R UFI'B/AMMBASSY BRLIN 326 RUSBOO/AI':I':BASSY ISLAMABAD 9?.28 R UHMO/AMMBA!'~Y MOSCOW 1749 R USBA:/AMMBASSY NW DL HI 7<!5 RVGI'l!fl/AMC"BASSY THRAN 331 R UMJFG/AM~~BASSY BIJING %27 BT " T SCT ION 1 OF 2 KABUL 5459 I B Jut 19 i 3 ~ D pol c'v..~ evm (l.i c..,\v1' : RDS 7/18/99 <AMSTUTZ, J, BRUC>.OR-M TAG<;; PINT, PINR, AF, US SUaJ: (S) GDR AMBASSADOR RPORTS THAT SOVITS HOP TO RPLAC FRIJ': MI~ISTR AMIN WITH A BROADR BASD GOVT. 3: RI': KABUL <S - NTIR TXT> 2. Slii':MARY. I HAV JUST HAD AN XTRAORDINARY MTING WITH GRMAN DMOCRATIC RPUBLIC AMBASSADOR DR. HRMANN SCHWISAU. 1T AA~ XTRAORDINARY ON ACCOUNT OF WHAT H ~DISCLOSD~ WITH RSPCT TO SOVIT INTNTIONS HR INCLUDING TH LIKLIHOOD qf A "VTT-BACKD MOV TO OUST PRIM MINTSTfL HAFIZ!.!l.l..tLH AMIN. OVR TH LAST 3 WKS W HAV HAD HINTSlrrl\POSSIBL SUVTT-ASSISTD IN'l:RNP.L COUP, BOTH FROM GDR AMBASSADOR SCHWISAU <KABLJ! ) AND ARLIR FROM SOVIT MINISTR COUNSLOR VASILIY STPANOVICH SAFRONCHUK <KABUL 4888). THIS TIM, TH GDR AMBASSADOR WNT MUCH FURTHR IN SPLLING OUT!OOV!T DISSATISFACTION WITH TH DRA, TH SOVIT DILMMA ABOUT WHAT TO DO, AND TH POSSIBILITY OF AN INTRNAL PARTY COV!" TO LIP!lNAT AMIN. H HINTD THAT THIS MIGHT OCCUR IN AUGUST. ND SUMMARY.

2 3. 11 JUl.. Y 17, I PAID A CALL ON SCHWISAU, H HAD CALLD 11 CHARG l'l..atin ON J11. Y 9, lind BSIDS WANTING TO RTURN TH COmTSY CALL, I WLCOMD AN XCUS TO SF. HIM. W TALKD AN HOlJi, OF ALL TH PRO-MOSCOW COMMUNIST COUNTRY A!':BASSADOR~!'R:,!':CHWISAU IS PRHAPS TH MOST ASTUT AIID JNTLLIGtn:, AIID CRTAINLY TH MOST APPROACHII.BL. ALON AI'.ONG PRO-I':OSCOW COMMtNIST DIPLOMATS, H CALLS PRIODICALLY ON WSTRN A!.ll THIRD-WORLD DIPLOMATS, AND INVARIABLY LIKS TO NGAG IN CANDID POLITICAL DISCUSSIONS ABOUT AFGHANISTAN. H HAS BN I'ROV B ON OF 1'!!!'lOST IMPORTANT SOURC OF INFO ABO!IT DV COMM NIST DIPLOMATIC _COI"MUNITY AND RCNTLY ABOUT MOSCOW'S THINKING. 4. SOVIT DISSATISFACTION WITH TH ORA: YSTRDAY W SNT A RPORT <RFTL> ANAL'tZING TH PRSSUR!' SIHNGLY BUILDING U!' FOR AN INTRNAL CHANG IN TH ORA LADRSHIP. WHAT SCHWISAU TOLD ~I AT 1~ MTING CONFIRMD ALL THIS, INCLUDING TH XI!':JNC OF BHIND-TH-SCNS NGOTIATI~NS BY SOVIT MINISTR-COUNSLOR SAfl!ONCHUK WITH I'DPA PARTY LADRS AIID OTHRS TO BRING ABOUT AN INTRNAL CHANG, SCHWISAU RPATD!.. Y C:A'~ THAT ':"!! ~OVI T~ \'F.P D<;:PLY ;JOP.R!!J OVFR T~ o;nr!':f.ntill> SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN. H SAID, "THY KNOW TH RGII'It: HAS LITTL PUBLIC SUPPORT AND IS LOSING CONTROL OF TH COUNTRY.". W!ITL TLLING M THIS, H ALSO SAID, "W AR DTRMIND TO SAV. TH RVOLUTION," 5. SCHWISAU CLARLY LAID TH BLAM FOR TH ORA'S TROUBLS ON ffiim MINISTR/FORIGN MINISTR HAFlZULLAH AMIN. H DSaliBD AflliN AS "TH STRONG MAN" IN AFGHANISTAN. "H PRSONALLY RUNS TH NTIR GOVT," H SAID, "CONTROLLING TH ARMY, TH INTR!OR MINISTRY, AND. H MAK!': ALL IMPORTANT DCISIONS." AMJN HAS BLUNDRD BADLY, H SAID, IN TH WAY H HAS IMFI..MNTD TH GOVT'S CONOMIC AND RFORM PROGRAMS, AND!'ARTIClLARLY IN TH WAY H HAS "HARSH!.. Y" ACTD AGAINST PRSONS H SIISPCTO MIGHT OPPOS HIM. ~/ 'nva " ~ c c. c t c -"'.. " ;!:... ~ "5 "' ;!: ~ o; V> "'!l I -. ;::; d " -.;.c f-<..; > :;; <>! < >- f-< ;;:: :::> I "' ""..l I < [::: < "' c:::

3 6. <:: HWJSAtt DISMISSD TAR H DSOHBD HIM A':' AN, KI Y ACHR, PHILOSOPH, AND WRITR" WHO JS WLL INTNTIOND, AND LOVS TH ADULATION P.r.!'D ON HIM lli TH FRSS <"SPCIALLY TH PICTl'llS"). ~w SUSPCT,"!"CHirl ISAU "AID, "THAT H DO!= NOT KNOW MUCH OF WHAT IS GOING Ofl IN THF. COUNTRY." 7. SOVIT MA!:L'VRS: SCHWlSAU CUNFIRI'IO THAT SOVIT MINISTR-COUNSLOR SAFRONCHI.'K HAS BN GIVN TH TASK, BY!':OSCOW, TO BRING ABOtT A "RADIC~L CHANG" IN TH GOVT. SAFRONCHUK WAS GIVN THIS TASK, SCHWISAU SAID, BCAUS, "IT I!' NOT l'ocd FOR TH SOVIT Af':BA"'SADO!l HIMSLF TO B SN HOLDING THS DaiCAT NGOTIATIONS." H CONTINUD, "IF TH!' NGOTJATIONS FAIL, AND/OR SAFRONCHUK \JR XPLLD AS PRSONA ~ON GRATA, THAT I.'Otn..D ATTRACT LSS ATTNTluN AND B LS!' OF A DIPLO!':ATIC MBARRASSMNT FOR TH SOVIT UNION THAN IF Af':BASSAOOR PUZANOV I<R XPLLD."... " AS Tv WHAT J!: LIKLY TO HAPPN, SCH\oiicAll CL '-RLY :NDiCATO TH I!Aqy NTRAP tp ING Al':lN AND PRHAPS OTHR<::, IS AHAT TH SOVIT2 INTND. SCH\I!ISPU <fa!o THR" AR NQW DP DIVISIONS IN IR PDPA PARTY i'l'laivy nf "HO!" LAD!NG MMBRS AR VRY DISSfiT!SFID \lith TH?RSll! CO[!lS!:: OF VNTS PND AMIN"S LADR"HIP. H SAID TH.ot WHAT!!' NDD IS A NW PH IM MINISTR WHO IS A "STRONG MAN" A~'D "llot JDg'TJFID" WITH "PR!'NT" POLICIS. ~. W!-:N I MNTIOND DFNS MINISTR ',li\t ANJAR PS A PUSSIBJLI"!"Y, SCHt.i!'!SAU ActD AS IF I HAD CAt.!'>HT HIM JN A :'CRT. AFtr.R P 1'1\t:.':', H SAID WATANJAR IS "NOT A POLITICIAN, BVT OF COURS T'"' r.il TT AR Y I~ KY TO P NY CHANG." THN H!:: WNT P!i TO OBSRV BH, SINC TH RVOLUTION, WATI>.NJPR HAS NVR MAD A ~PF.~Cf' THAT I<' A~ FR INT"D IN TH PRS:O PND THAT HIS XACT!"lll!T!Gt;L VIVIS A.R NOT CLPR TO TH PUBLIC,!MPI.. YI!iG BY THIS THP.T I.:ATANJAR I!P.S "CLAN." ~CH~ISI\1.' \1/F.NT ON, HO~ VR, TG 'lint T~AT WHIL WATANJPR MIGHT PLAY P ROLF. IN A COttNTR CIJF?, ;;;: WAS NOT LIKLY TO B?RIM t<inis1r SHiCF. "H':!~!:' twt X F!::P. I~ ~r.d " BT N545 5' -I

4 N~IJNVV '1?.!!f.ff-11 SA!5 WJC6c9 D:::!:~ 1 S8LK "5459/ CI ZNY c-c:r.~s ZZH 'J R 1 <'124l!Z Jt!L 79 Fl': Af"MSA"SY K~''."L T Rl''IC/~CSTAT WASHDC IMMI!:DJ.AT 476; I~Ff1 P.UFHa/M1::8AS<>Y 8RLIN ;:27 RUSB!ll/A~r'i8AS~Y ISLAMABAD 91'129 "UJ.l!':On.!"r ;;;~.SSY MOSC\\ 1 175?. RUSBAF/A MSP.SSY NW DLHI 7~86 RUQM!ffi/AMMBASSY THRAN "332 R UMJPG/M 1 I 1BASSY BIJING.'62 2-T S C R T SCTION 2 OF 2 KABUL 5459 'XD IS I ' l. l 11. SVRAL TIMS SCHW ISAU SAID, "11/ AR NOW S! NG TH CLOSING C~AFTR OF THIS GOVT." H MUST HAV USD TH TRM, "~", AT LPST THR TIMS TO M. AS TO WHN TH CHANG WA.S likly TO OCCUR, '>CHW.ISAU HINTD THAT IT CO!LD HAPPN AtlY TIM BUT WO!li..D MOST LIKLY TAK PLAC IN ~ AHGUS'G7 H SAID H WAS SNDING HIS WIF TO AST BRLIN SOON FOR "THR OR FOUR WKS RST," MD LATR H TOLD M H HIMSLF CO!LD NOT POSSIBL LAV KABUL THIS SUMMR SINC "AUGUST J!' '3!NT TO B HOT, AND I DOW T MAN TH WATHR." ARLIR IN Olfl CONVRSATION, H SAID THAT TH SITUATION WITHIN TH GOVT WAS HIGHLY UNSTABL AND THAT SCURITY IN KABUL COULD DTR!ORAT ANY TIM, SO FAST IN FACT THAT IT WOULD B "IMPOSSIBL TO VACUAT DPNDNTS." 11. SOVIT INTRSTS: SCHWISAU SAID THAT NO INTRNAL PARTY "R~D!CAL CHANG" COULD OCCI..R HR WITHOUT SOVIT SUPPORT, AND THAT SOVIT INTRSTS WOL'LD HAV TO B TAKN INTO ACCOUNT BY ANY NW AFGHAN GOVT. "AFTR ALL," H SAID, "AFGHANISTAN BORDRS TH SOVIT UNION AND JUST AS YOU HAV A SPCIAL INTRST IN ANYIHING HAPPNING IN CANADA AND MXICO, TH SOVIT UN JON HAS A SPCIAL INTRST IN AFGHANISTAN." THUS, H SAID, C A POLITICAL SOLUTION HAS TO TAK INTO ACCOUNT THR FACTORS: "SAVING TH FACJ;: OF TH SOVITS, SAVING TH FAC TH AFGHAN PARTY (PDR{\j, AND SAVING TH FAGL.Qf MUSLIMS."

5 I IN CONNCTION WITH SAVING SOVIT FAC, SCHWISAU SAID TllAT T!i SOVITS IIAD TO TAK INTO ACCOUNT THIR RLATIONSHIP AND RPutATION WITH "OTHR PARTIS AROUND TH WCilLD." IF TH SOVITS WR SN TO ABANDON TH PARTY HR IN AFGHANISTAN, H SAID, IT WOILD HAV A "VRY UPSTTING FFCT ON PARTIS LSWHR WHICH WR FRINDLY WITH MOSCOW." THIS COMMNT TRACKS WITH!liS COMMNT MNiiON ABOV <PARA 4) THAT, "W I'!UST SAV TH RVOLutiON." IS. QUSTION OF SOVIT MILITARY INTRVNTION IN AFGHANISTAN. TOWARD TH ND OF Ol.R CONVRSAliON, SCHWISAu VOLUNTARILY RAISD THIS ~USTION. H SAID H WAS AWAR THR WAS SPCULATION IN TH DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY AS TO WHTHR TH SOVITS WOULD, IN TH LAST ANALYSIS, INTRVN MILITARILY IN AFGHANlSTAN. "WR THY TO DO SO," H Sl\lD, "IT WOULD SOLV ON PROBLM BUT CRAT ANOTHR." SOVIT INTRV/lNTION COULD LUIINAT TH PRSNT GOVT THRBY SOLVING ON f'roblm. IT WOULD, HOWVR OlAT A~OTHR f'robli!m; NAMLY, THP.T TH "NTIR AFGHAN NATION" WOULD Tl.flN AGAINST TH SOVITS, JUS'r AS TH AFGHANS TURND AGAINST TH "BRITISH INVADRS" IN TH 19TH CNTUR. HNC, H SA!D, IT MAD NO SNS FOR TH SOVITS TO INTRVN MILITARILY !H PARCHAMISTS: SCHII/ISAU, IN DISCUSSING TH PARCHAI'llSTS, COMMN! THAT TARAKI HIMSLF HAD BN ACCPTABL TO TH PARCHA!'!IST WING.!IllS WAS NOT TH CAS WlTH HAFIZULLAH AMIN. XILD PARCHAMIST LADR, BABRAK KARMAL, AND 1\MIN WR "RIVALS.~ SCHWISAU OBSRVD THAT IT WOULD B IMPOSSIBL FOR AMIN AND BABRAK KARMAL TO B IN TH SAM GOVT. RFLCTING ON TH TWO WINGS OF TH PARTY AI TH TIM OF TH RVOLUTION, SCHWISAU CONFJRMD OtJl Il'!f'RSSION THAT TH PARCHAMISTS HAD A WIDR FOLLOWING THAN TH KHALQIS WITHIN TH'i: PARTY AND AMONG ARll S'MPATHI!RS, BUI THAT TH KHALQIS WR STRONGR IN TH MILI!.@Y. TH LATTR"S SIRNGTH IN TH MILITARY!'!lOVD DCISIV, SCHWISAU OBSRVD, IN PURGING TH PARCHAMISTS. I ASKD HIM WHTHR H HAD INFORMATION AS W DID, THAT MANY PARCHAMIS!S HAD BN RCNTLY RLASD FROM PUL--CHARKI PRISON. H SHOOK HIS HAD. H SAID THOUGH THAT, AT THIS PRSNT JUNCTUR IN TH CRISS FACING TH ORA, IT ~'AS NOT NOUGH TO BRING BACK PARCHAMlSTS INTO TH GOVT. "IT IS NCSSARY TO BROADN TH BAS OF TH GOVT FAR BYO!ll TH PARCHAMISTS." TWO OTHR THINGS ND TO B DON TOO, H SAID. ON WI\S TO RLAS MANY POLITICAL PRISONRS <"VN PARTY MMBRS HAV BN ARRSTD"), AND TH OTHR WAS FOR A NW GOVT TO B "FIRNDS WITH.TH MOSLM COUNTRIS."

6 15. BITS AND PICS: SCHWISAU OBSRVD THAT TH ORA HAS "LOST CONTROL OF MANY PROVINCS." WHN I ASKD Hll'l FOR XAMPLS, H ~AID HRA! <THOUGH W KNOW HRA! CITY RMAINS IN DRA HAli'DS) AND TH PROVINCS IN TH CNTRAL PART OF TH COUNTRY CTH HAZARAJA! RGIONl.!6. J!'1lG!lT IRM!IIIII 1NFLUNC IN AFGHANISTAN WAS MOR~ UANGROa!" I!! f!i.go!ij: IHMi THAI OF PAKISTAN. WHN 1 ASKD HIM WHY, ;t SAID lt WAS BCAUS OF I IG S!NFL NC OVR TH S;tiJA POPLt.ATION WHICH RLIGIOUS I.M!l'I PROOMI ATD IN TH I'ROVI~CS BORDRING IRAN AND IN TH PROVJNCD MAKING UP TH MOUl."!AINOUS CNTRAL MASSIF. 17. THN, SOMWHAT IN CONTRADICTION TO TH ABOV RMARK, H SAID THAT TH PUS TUNS WR POLITICALLY TH MOST IMPORTA)l! _THNIC LI':NT IN th COt!NIR r. HNC, SINC SO MANY OF TH PU!:!tl'I!NS WP.."OPPOSING TH RGIM MILITARILY," THIS WAS ANOTHR ~R IOUS POLITICAL PROBLM. Ill. COMMNT: AS A RSU..T OF THIS CONVRSATION, TOGIIR WITH ARLIR ONS MNTIOND, W BLIV TH VIDNC.JS NOW O.I\R THAT!!I SOVIRT AR DISSATlSFID WITH HAFIZULLAH AMIN AND AR IRVING IO NGINR A "RADICAL CHANG. 'W AR ALSO TJ>,FTD TO BLIV THAT TH SOVITS, BY MAifS OF' SAF'RONCHUK'S CONVRSATION WITH M ON JUN 24, AND SCIIWISAU'S TWO CONVR SATIONS WIT US ON JULY 9 AND 17, HAV TRID TO SND US A SIGNAL. HAT SIGNI\L SMS TO B THAT, THY AR UNHAPPY WITH TH AM IN GIM, THAT THY AR TRYING TO ARRANG A CHANG, AND 81 Al'l [; SPCULATING HRD AR HOPING THIS WILL NOT HAV A NGATIV IMPACT ON US. ON COULD AL.SO DRAW TH CONCLUSION TIIAl t WITH Til OBVIOUS SLIPPING GRIP TH ORA HAS OVR TH COUNTRY, TH SOVITS HOF ihat BY BRINGING ABOUT A CHANG AND BROADNING TH BAS OF TH 3VT, AND BY POSSIBLY MAKING AMIN 1\ SCI.PGOAT, THY CAN AVO!D LOSING THIR INVSTMNT IN THIS MARXIST PARTY AND GOVT, AID AVOID A MAJOR BLOW TO SOVIT INTRNATIONAL PRSTIG. AM~ titz BT "545 9 c d -;; c::

#pictureadvent. Family Resources. #pictureadvent 2017 Family Resources Written by Rev. Monique McBride.

#pictureadvent. Family Resources. #pictureadvent 2017 Family Resources Written by Rev. Monique McBride. Family Rsourcs What happns at church should nvr stay at church! Whn w look at how faith formation happns in th livs of our childrn and adults, what happns at hom and with familis is th most important indicator