The Palestinians. Between State Failure and Civil War. Michael Eisenstadt

Transcription

1 The Palestiias Betwee State Failure ad Civil War Michael Eisestadt Policy Focus #78 December 2007

2 All rights reserved. Prited i the Uited States of America. No part of this publicatio may be reproduced or trasmitted i ay form or by ay meas, electroic or mechaical, icludig photocopy, recordig, or ay iformatio storage ad retrieval system, without permissio i writig from the publisher by the Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy Published i 2007 i the Uited States of America by the Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washigto, DC Desig by Daiel Koha, Sesical Desig ad Commuicatio Frot cover: Palestiia wome cover their faces from the smell of garbage piled i the street i Gaza City, October 23, Copyright AP Wide World Photos/Emilio Moreatti.

3 About the Author Michael Eisestadt is a seior fellow ad director of the Military ad Security Studies Program at The Washigto Istitute. Prior to joiig the Istitute i 1989, he worked as a civilia military aalyst with the U.S. Army. A officer i the Army Reserve, he served o active duty i at U.S. Cetral Commad ad o the Joit Staff durig Operatio Edurig Freedom ad the plaig for Operatio Iraqi Freedom. He is coeditor (with Patrick Clawso) of the Istitute paper Deterrig the Ayatollahs: Complicatios i Applyig Cold War Strategy to Ira. The opiios expressed i this Policy Focus are those of the author ad ot ecessarily those of the Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors.

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5 Table of Cotets Ackowledgmets v Executive Summary vii Itroductio State Failure: Permutatios ad the Palestiia Case Characteristics ad Cotours of Palestiia State Failure Roots ad Origis of Palestiia State Failure Implicatios of Palestiia State Failure Policy Optios Coclusio Illustratio Israeli ad Palestiia Distributio of Authority, Fall 2000 (map) xi

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7 Ackowledgmets I wo u l d l i k e to t h a k the umerous idividuals who kidly agreed to be iterviewed durig the preparatio of this study, as well as several people who geerously gave of their time ad expertise to read earlier versios, icludig Patrick Clawso, Adrew Exum, Matthew Levitt, James Lidsay, David Makovsky, Robert Satloff, ad Mohammad Yaghi. I would also like to thak several research assistats Ghaith al-faqih, Joatha Powell, Nic Ravella, Ashraf Zeitou, Neri Zilber, Cecile Zwiebach, ad especially Zack Syder ad Jake Lipto, who assisted me durig the fial phase of this study for their cheer ad ethusiasm, help i chasig dow iumerable citatios ad sources, ad assistace i preparig this text for publicatio. All errors of fact ad judgmet that remai are my resposibility. The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy v

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9 Executive Summary T h e Pa l e s t i i a Au t h o r i t y (PA), though lackig certai key attributes of sovereigty, has largely fuctioed as a de facto state sice its creatio i Almost from the outset, however, the process of Palestiia state formatio was accompaied by a parallel process of ecoomic declie ad istitutioal, territorial, ad political fragmetatio. The latter process was greatly accelerated by the secod itifada ( ), the formatio of a Hamas govermet followig Jauary 2006 legislative electios (leadig to iteratioal sactios o the PA) ad the a short-lived atioal-uity govermet, ad the Jue 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza. Today, the PA hoverig betwee survival ad collapse displays may of the traits of a failed state. O the eve of the Hamas takeover of Gaza, the PA was o loger able (ad i some respects, it ever was able) to fulfill the most importat fuctios of a state: to provide for the welfare ad security of its people. The clearest sigs of the weakess of the PA were what Palestiias referred to as the four Fs : fawda (chaos), fita (strife), falata (lawlessess), ad fassad (corruptio). These coditios cotiue to defie life i the PA-cotrolled West Bak ad show sigs of returig i Hamas-cotrolled Gaza. Because of this state of affairs, local ogovermetal orgaizatios (NGOs), iteratioal orgaizatios, ad the iteratioal commuity icreasigly have bore resposibility for the welfare of the Palestiia people. The roots of Palestiia state failure ca be traced to the followig factors: Yasser Arafat s leadership style which cotiues to exert a baleful ifluece o Palestiia politics; corruptio ad political factioalism iside Fatah ad the PA; ad the itese ad violet rivalry betwee Fatah ad Hamas A self-defeatig strategy of armed struggle that was pursued i spite of its social, ecoomic, ad political costs to the Palestiia people Although the Hamas takeover has improved iteral security i Gaza, the status quo there may prove dif The morally corrosive effect o Palestiia society of the struggle agaist Israel, maifested by the reflexive resort to terrorism ad the emergece of a culture of violece, which iadvertetly led to icreased iter- Palestiia coflict The vulerability of the Palestiia ecoomy to exteral shocks, pressures, ad sactios as well as restrictios imposed by Israel i respose to terrorist attacks, which cotributed to the declie of the Palestiia ecoomy ad udermied the Palestiia state-i-the-makig The high Palestiia birthrate, which has outstripped ecoomic growth ad created a youth bulge, cotributig to political istability i the West Bak ad Gaza The perpetuatio of the Israeli occupatio caused by the aborted implemetatio of the Oslo Accords, alog with the cotiued growth of Israeli settlemets, which geographically circumscribed the PA s ability to exercise its authority ad curtailed the developmet of the Palestiia state-i-the-makig Israel s couterterror strategy, particularly the system of iteral ad exteral closures, whose side effects icluded the declie of the Palestiia ecoomy, the uravelig of the Palestiia social fabric, ad the territorial fragmetatio of the PA The disruptive role of outside actors particularly Hizballah, Ira, ad Syria who have helped stoke Palestiia violece Iteratioal sactios o the Hamas ad atioaluity govermets, which while aimig to udermie Hamas had the uiteded cosequece of further udermiig the PA The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy vii

10 Michael Eisestadt The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War ficult to sustai. It faces upopular Hamas policies ad practices; cotiued mortar ad rocket attacks o Israel (which threate to provoke ever-larger Israeli air ad groud operatios); efforts by a broad rage of actors the Uited States, the PA, Israel, ad others to udermie the Hamas govermet; ad deterioratig ecoomic coditios, which may lead to discotet with Hamas rule but which paradoxically might also eable Hamas to tighte its grip o power (just as coflict ad sactios i Iraq durig the 1990s allowed the regime of Saddam Hussei to tighte its grip o power). Little reaso exists to believe that the situatio i Gaza will chage for the better so log as Hamas cotiues to advocate ad egage i violece agaist Israel. Edig the chaos, strife, lawlessess, ad corruptio that have characterized life i much of the West Bak will require far-reachig political reforms, the iculcatio of a culture of political compromise, ad strog leadership coditios ot likely to be fulfilled soo. Likewise, Israeli security restrictios i the West Bak that hamstrig the Palestiia ecoomy, limit Palestiia freedom of movemet, ad costrai the PA s ability to exercise its authority throughout the territory are likely to remai i place util Fatah s militia, the al-aqsa Martyrs Brigades, is dismatled ad the PA demostrates that it ca prevet attacks o Israeli civilia ad military targets ad check Hamas s efforts to lay the groudwork for a future takeover i the West Bak. Because of iter-palestiia violece, iteratioal sactios, ad Israeli measures iteded to couter Palestiia terrorism, ecoomic coditios i the Palestiia territories have deteriorated dramatically; as a result, both the Hamas ad PA govermets have become heavily depedet o exteral budgetary support. The ecoomic situatio i Gaza is especially dire. Uemploymet may be approachig 44 percet, while more tha 80 percet of the populatio of Gaza depeds o food aid provided by the World Food Program ad the Uited Natios Relief Works Agecy (UNRWA). Foreig aid, however, ca accomplish oly so much, abset a dramatic ad fudametal chage i the ature of the relatios betwee Hamas, the PA, ad Israel. For these reasos, the status quo i the territories is liable to cotiue for some time (uless Israel goes ito Gaza to depose the Hamas govermet there), with the ever-preset possibility of a ew ad perhaps more-violet roud of fightig betwee Fatah ad Hamas or betwee the Israeli military ad various Palestiia factios. What are the potetial implicatios of this cotiued state of affairs for the Palestiias ad their eighbors? Possible cosequeces iclude the followig: The cotiued iflux of small arms ad light weapos ito the Palestiia territories, the further militarizatio of Palestiia society as a result of the growth of militias ad/or official security forces, ad cotiued ati-israel violece The further etrechmet i Gaza of iteratioal jihadist groups such as al-qaeda Icreased emigratio of educated Palestiias, robbig the West Bak ad Gaza of critical huma capital Modest refugee flows withi the territories i the evet of reewed large-scale civil violece or Israeli military itervetio Cotiued opportuities for Hizballah ad Ira to expad their ifluece i the West Bak ad Gaza Israeli military itervetio i Gaza to halt ogoig Palestiia mortar ad rocket attacks or i the West Bak to prevet a Hamas takeover Growig tesios betwee the Jewish ad Palestiia citizes of Israel ad betwee citizes of Trasjordaia ad Palestiia origi i Jorda, particularly i the evet of large-scale Israeli military itervetio i Gaza or the West Bak The closure of border crossigs with the West Bak i the evet of the collapse of the PA, leadig to a further deterioratio i ecoomic coditios there viii Policy Focus #78

11 The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War Michael Eisestadt Lastig damage to Palestiia social, ecoomic, ad political istitutios, resultig i dimiished logterm prospects for political stability, Palestiia statehood, ad peaceful coexistece betwee Israelis ad Palestiias Faced with the Hamas takeover i Gaza, cotiuig low-level violece i the territories, ad the possible failure of the Hamas ad PA mii-states i Gaza ad the West Bak, the Uited States has four possible optios: Support efforts by the PA ad Israel to cotai or roll back Hamas i Gaza while helpig Fatah ad the PA to reform, with the ultimate goal beig a uitary Palestiia state livig i peace with Israel Egage Hamas ad support the resurrectio of a atioal-uity govermet i the hope that the burdes of goverace, ad a combiatio of pressures ad icetives, will breed political moderatio Support a iteratioal force or trusteeship for the West Bak (ad perhaps Gaza) to keep the peace there ad to prepare the Palestiia people ad a reformed ad revamped PA for idepedece Support alterative sub- or supra-atioal frameworks to a idepedet Palestiia state such as cla, militia, ad warlord rule or cofederatio with Jorda, should the Hamas ad PA mii-states collapse The first optio cotai or roll back Hamas while helpig Fatah ad the PA to reform is the policy ow beig pursued by the Uited States, the PA, Israel, ad much of the iteratioal commuity. This policy, however, faces log odds, ad if it is to work, its propoets will have to avoid the pitfalls of recet attempts to udermie Hamas by fidig a way to cotai ad roll back the group without further udermiig the Palestiia ecoomy, social istitutios, ad political structures. If they caot, this policy is liable to lead to further chaos, strife, ad lawlessess i both the West Bak ad Gaza ad to a political dead ed rather tha a political horizo. I seekig to (a) cotai ad roll back Hamas, (b) reform ad bolster Fatah ad the PA, ad (c) ecourage Palestiias ad Israelis to defie a political horizo for the settlemet of their coflict, the Uited States is grapplig with the outcome of early a decade ad a half of policies pursued by the PA ad, to a lesser extet, Israel, the Uited States ad others, that have brought the PA to the brik of collapse. Although the ear- to midterm cosequeces of the failure of the PA might be maageable, the Uited States, Israel, ad Jorda have o log-term iterest i the failure of the PA, which could create opportuities for Hamas to expad its ifluece i the West Bak ad lead to other udesirable outcomes. Palestiia-Israeli diplomacy to create a political horizo by defiig the broad cotours of a Palestiia-Israeli settlemet may be a ecessary coditio for reversig this tred, but it is hardly sufficiet. Dealig with the challege of Palestiia state failure requires a comprehesive approach for dealig with the problems of corruptio ad political factioalism. New leadership is eeded i both Fatah ad the PA, as is security-sector reform, icludig the dismatlig of militias ad the reorgaizatio ad professioalizatio of the PA security forces. The harmful effects of the Israeli occupatio o the Palestiia ecoomy ad istitutios of goverace must be mitigated, ad the ifluece of outside actors, such as Hizballah, Ira, ad Syria, that are committed to perpetuatig violece i the territories, must be limited. I these areas, the Palestiias ad the iteratioal commuity ca ad must do more. The iteratioal commuity has a importat role to play i helpig the Palestiias build a better future by providig advice, traiig, fiacial aid, ad security assistace. The iteratioal commuity s past efforts to rebuild failed states, however, do ot provide reaso for optimism. Ultimately, oly the Palestiias ca implemet the far-reachig chages eeded to trasform their politics, alter their relatioship with Israel, ad establish the ecessary coditios for buildig a healthy society, a productive The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy ix

12 Michael Eisestadt The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War ecoomy, ad a stable, idepedet state. Abset a commitmet to ad a capacity for political reform, for cofrotig ad disarmig groups egaged i terrorism (such as Hamas, the Palestiia Islamic Jihad, ad al-aqsa Martyrs Brigades), ad for defeatig extremists at the polls, the rest of the world ca do little to spare the Palestiias from a future that looks much like their recet past ad that is characterized by more chaos, strife ad lawlessess, ecoomic hardship, ad coflict with Israel. x Policy Focus #78

13 The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War Michael Eisestadt Israeli ad Palestiia Distributio of Authority Fall 2000 Haifa Sea of Galilee Area A: Full Palestiia Civil ad Security Cotrol Area B: Palestiia Civil Cotrol, Israeli Security Cotrol Area C: Israeli Civil ad Security Cotrol M E D I T E R R A N E A N S E A Tulkarem Jei Jorda River 0 miles 15 Qalqilya Nablus Tel Aviv WEST BANK Ramallah Jerusalem Jericho Bethlehem Gaza Hebro GAZA STRIP Dead Sea I S R A E L JORDAN This map reflects the distributio of authority i the Palestiia territories through fall 2000, whe the secod itifada bega The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy xi

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15 Itroductio T h e Pa l e s t i i a Au t h o r i t y (PA), though lackig certai key attributes of sovereigty, has largely fuctioed as a de facto state sice its creatio i Almost from the outset, however, a parallel process of ecoomic declie ad istitutioal, territorial, ad political fragmetatio accompaied the process of Palestiia state formatio. This deterioratio was greatly accelerated by the secod itifada ( ), the formatio of a Hamas govermet followig Jauary 2006 legislative electios (leadig to iteratioal sactios o the PA) ad the a short-lived atioal-uity govermet, ad the Jue 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza. Today, the PA displays may of the traits of a failed state, hoverig betwee survival ad collapse. The future of the Hamas-led govermet i Gaza may ot be much brighter. The situatio i the West Bak ad Gaza has several possible outcomes: (a) the survival of weak PA ad Hamas mii-states i the West Bak ad Gaza; (b) the cotiued declie ad perhaps evetual collapse of PA or Hamas istitutios of goverace as a result of fiscal isolvecy or iterecie violece; or (c) the reestablishmet of a sigle Palestiia govermet i the West Bak ad Gaza through electios, revival of a atioal-uity govermet, or force of arms. I all three cases, Palestiia istitutios of goverace are likely to remai weak, with collapse remaiig a possibility, if ot a reality. This study examies the origis of this state of affairs ad its implicatios for the Palestiias ad their eighbors. Durig the 1970s, 1980s, ad 1990s, umerous reports ad studies examied the implicatios of Palestiia statehood; most focused o security issues.1 All these studies were writte before the secod Palestiia itifada, ad much has chaged sice the. The assumptios o which most were based that Israeli- Palestiia egotiatios ad the process of Palestiia state formatio would be a liear ad relatively peaceful process, like Israel s peace egotiatio with Egypt ad Jorda have prove ivalid. Moreover, the regioal eviromet has chaged dramatically. The reality of protracted low-itesity coflicts waged by groups such as Hamas, the Palestiia Islamic Jihad (PIJ), ad Hizballah, ad supported by a resurget Syria ad a icreasigly assertive ad self-cofidet Ira with uclear ambitios, has overshadowed (though ot supplated) the possibility of a major Arab-Israeli war ivolvig a rearmed Syria supported by Ira. The actual outcome of the Oslo process was geerally uaticipated. Whereas some believed that Oslo would lead to Israeli ad Palestiia states coexistig peacefully side by side, ad others believed that it would lead to Israeli ad Palestiia states locked i perpetual coflict, few, if ay, foresaw the possibility of Palestiia civil war or state failure. The implicatios of state failure or civil war i the Palestiia territories are ot just matters of academic cocer. The two ofte occur i tadem; state failure is ofte the result of civil war. Moreover, each may ivolve a variety of cosequeces arms flows, refugee movemets, crimial ecoomic activities, terrorism, humaitaria crises, ad sigificat loss of life ad damage to the civilia ifrastructure whose repercussios are ofte far reachig ad log lastig. Therefore, uderstadig the pheomeo of state failure ad the factors that have led the PA to the brik of collapse is vitally importat so that failure may be preveted, or at least its cosequeces mitigated ad cotaied. This paper examies the ew reality that has emerged i the Palestiia territories i the wake of 1. See, for istace, Walid Khalidi, Thikig the Uthikable: A Sovereig Palestiia State, Foreig Affairs 56, o. 4 ( July 1978), pp ; Mark Heller, A Palestiia State: The Implicatios for Israel (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Uiversity Press, 1983); Aryeh Shalev, The West Bak: Lie of Defese (New York: Praeger Publishers, 1985); Ze ev Schiff, Security for Peace: Israel s Miimal Security Requiremets i Negotiatios with the Palestiias, Policy Paper o. 15 (Washigto, D.C.: Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy, 1989); ad Ze ev Schiff, Israeli Precoditios for Palestiia Statehood, Policy Focus o. 39 (Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy, 1999). The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy 1

16 Michael Eisestadt The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War the collapse of the Oslo process, the outbreak of the secod itifada, ad the Hamas takeover of Gaza. It examies the causes ad maifestatios of state failure i the Palestiia case; assesses the potetial implicatios of state failure for the Palestiia people, Ameri- ca s regioal allies (Israel, Jorda, ad Egypt), ad U.S. iterests i the regio particularly agaist the backdrop of state failure ad civil war i Iraq ad perhaps evetually Lebao; ad evaluates U.S. optios for dealig with this serious foreig policy challege. 2 Policy Focus #78

17 State Failure: Permutatios ad the Palestiia Case H i s t o r i c a l ly, the process of state formatio, more ofte tha ot, has bee violet ad bloody. States are frequetly bor of war; they rarely come ito beig through peaceful meas. This was as true for Europe i the ieteeth cetury as it was for Asia ad Africa (ad parts of Europe) i the twetieth cetury.1 Thus, the moder Middle-Easter state system came about through the dismatlig of the Ottoma Empire followig World War I; the states of Asia ad Africa emerged as a result of World War II ad the subsequet aticoloial wars of atioal liberatio; ad the oldew states of the Balkas rose violetly from the ashes of the former Yugoslavia. Eve the relatively peaceful dissolutio of the Soviet Uio gave ew impetus to the Cheche separatist movemet o Russia s souther periphery ad led to the creatio of a umber of ew states i the Caucasus ad Cetral Asia that have sice bee mired i border disputes ad civil war. Moreover, ew democracies are more proe to istability, to belligeret atioalism, ad to warrig with their eighbors tha are stable, mature democracies. Political elites i youg democracies ofte stir up aggressive atioalism as a meas of maitaiig ustable goverig coalitios. Risig democracy ofte goes together with risig atioalism. Recet Russia policy i Chechya ad the former Soviet republics of the Baltic ad Caucasus regios, as well as Serbia policy i Bosia ad Kosovo, are examples of this pheomeo.2 Fially, the process of state formatio fails as ofte as it succeeds especially if accompaied by domestic or foreig wars leavig weak or collapsed states ad a trail of huma misery i its wake. The pheomeo of state failure is either recet or ucommo. States have bee failig for as log as they have existed, ad except for the period of relative iteratioal stability durig the Cold War, state failure has bee a commoplace evet.3 A quick glace at a world map from the tur of the cetury (either ieteeth or twetieth) will reveal states ad empires that have come ad goe. The rash of state failures that the world has witessed sice the ed of the Cold War Somalia, Bosia, the Democratic Republic of Cogo, Afghaista, Sierra Leoe, ad most recetly Iraq, to metio but a few simply marks the resumptio of oe of huma history s oldest ad most cosistet treds. Thus, see agaist the backgroud of moder political history, the assumptio that the process of Palestiia state formatio ad democratizatio would be accomplished peacefully, or would be cocluded successfully the first time aroud, seems, i retrospect, to have marked the triumph of hope over historical experiece. Although the PA, sice its creatio i 1994, has fuctioed as a de facto state with a parliamet, executive, judiciary, govermetal bureaucracy, ad security forces, it has particularly sice the outbreak of the secod itifada i 2000 icreasigly exhibited may of the pathologies typically associated with the pheomeo of state failure.4 Therefore, examiatio of recet developmets i the PA i the light of what is kow about the process of state failure would be useful i better uderstadig the origis ad ature 1. Christopher Clapham, The Global-Local Politics of State Decay i Robert I. Rotberg, ed., Whe States Fail: Causes ad Cosequeces (Priceto, N.J.: Priceto Uiversity Press, 2004), pp Edward D. Masfield ad Jack Syder, Democratizatio ad the Dager of War, Foreig Affairs 74, o. 3 (May/Jue 1995), pp Jeffrey Herbst, Let Them Fail: State Failure i Theory ad Practice Implicatios for Policy, i Rotberg, ed., Whe States Fail, pp I makig this poit, Herbst cites Charles Tilly s estimate that the eormous majority of Europea states sice 1500 have failed (p. 303). See Charles Tilly, Reflectios o the History of Europea State-Makig, i Charles Tilly, ed., The Formatio of Natioal States i Wester Europe (Priceto, N.J.: Priceto Uiversity Press, 1975), pp De facto states are those that seek or have declared idepedece ad have mustered sufficiet istitutioal capacity to provide govermetal services over part or all of their claimed atioal territory, but lack iteratioal recogitio. Examples iclude Somalilad, the Turkish Republic of Norther Cyprus, the Kurdish Regioal Govermet of Norther Iraq, ad the PA. For more o de facto states, see Scott Pegg, De Facto States i the Iteratioal System, Istitute of Iteratioal Relatios, Uiversity of British Columbia (Workig Paper o. 21, February 1998); Tozu Bahcheli, Barry Bartma, ad Hery Srebrik, De Facto States: The Quest for Sovereigty (Lodo: Routledge, 2004); ad Pal Kolsto, The Sustaiability ad Future of Urecogized Quasi-States, Joural of Peace Research 43, o. 6 (November 2006), pp The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy 3

18 Michael Eisestadt The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War his toleratio (if ot promotio) of croyism ad corruptio, his ofte ambiguous stace toward Hamas ad PIJ terrorist attacks o Israel, ad Israeli security measures to couter terrorist attacks (particularly the temporary closures frequetly imposed o the territories), which adversely affected the ecoomic uderpiigs of the PA. The secod itifada ( ) exacerbated this state of affairs, with the impositio by Israel of additioal security measures o the territories to couter the Palestiia suicide-bombig campaig that had bee uleashed agaist it. These measures created ew obstacles to istitutio-buildig ad ecoomic developmet i the territories. Popular disillusiomet with PA corruptio, ad the failure to deliver either peace or prosperity, led to the Hamas victory i the Jauary 2006 legislative electios ad the formatio of a Hamas-led govermet. The formatio of a govermet led by a party codemed as terrorist by Israel, the Uited States, ad the Europea Uio (EU) led to the impositio of Israeli ad iteratioal sactios o the PA ad the itesificatio of the power struggle betwee Fatah ad Hamas. This coflict icluded bouts of Fatah- Hamas violece i Gaza from December 2006 to February 2007 ad durig May Jue 2007, culmiatig i the Hamas takeover of Gaza i Jue Give its ecoomic circumstaces, ad after early a decade of itermittet ad sometimes itese coof the problem ad i developig optios for dealig with it.5 State failure exhibits at least three degrees:6 (a) compromised states have relatively strog ad effective govermets that are costraied, for political reasos, from takig actio agaist extremist or terrorist groups o their territory; (b) weak states have a fuctioig cetral govermet but because of croyism, corruptio, lack of resources, or sectaria or ethic tesios are uable to maitai law ad order or to deliver essetial govermet services to certai sectors of the populatio or regios of the coutry; (c) collapsed states may have a fuctioig cetral govermet that is uable to provide security, maitai law ad order, or deliver essetial services outside the capital, or they may have o cetral govermet at all. I may cases, state failure is accompaied by some kid of civil coflict or civil war, which may be a maifestatio, or proximate cause, of failure.7 The process of state formatio i the Palestiia territories was, almost from the start, accompaied by a set of parallel processes that worked to udermie the istitutioal capacity ad effectiveess of the state-ithe-makig. At first, the PA provided reaso for optimism regardig the prospects for a viable democratic state i the Palestiia territories; electios were held, a parliamet seated, ad a relatively free press established. But the state-buildig effort was quickly compromised by Yasser Arafat s autocratic leadership style, 5. Various defiitios of state failure are used i the academic literature, some emphasizig violece, others emphasizig performace, ad yet others a combiatio of the two. Thus, Rotberg costrues state failure primarily i terms of the existece of edurig coflict (revolts, isurgecies, or civil urest) ad by the iability of the state to cotrol peripheral regios. He defies a collapsed state as a rare ad extreme versio of a failed state i which a cetral govermet o loger fuctios or exists ad substate actors have take over. Robert I. Rotberg, The Failure ad Collapse of Natio States: Breakdow, Prevetio, ad Repair, i Rotberg, ed., Whe States Fail, pp By cotrast, Zartma defies state failure primarily i terms of state collapse, which he describes as a situatio i which the basic fuctios of the state are o loger performed (i.e., the provisio of law ad order, ad goverace) ad i which the state is o loger see as a symbol of idetity, a legitimate sovereig authority, or capable of offerig its citizes security. I. William Zartma, Posig the Problem of State Collapse, i I. William Zartma, ed., Collapsed States: The Disitegratio ad Restoratio of Legitimate Authority (Boulder, Colo.: Lye Rieer Publishers, 1995), pp Foreig Policy magazie s Failed State Idex offers a defiitio that icorporates both violece ad performace: a failig state is oe i which the govermet does ot have effective cotrol of its territory, is ot perceived as legitimate by a sigificat portio of its populatio, does ot provide domestic security or basic public services to its citizes, ad lacks a moopoly o the use of force. A failig state may experiece active violece or simply be vulerable to violece. Fud for Peace/Caregie Edowmet for Iteratioal Peace, The Failed States Idex, Foreig Policy, May/Jue 2006, p These defiitios are adapted from Dr. Ke Mekhaus, associate professor of political sciece, Davidso College, Weak States ad Terrorism i Africa U.S. Policy Optios i Somalia, prepared statemet submitted to the Hearig before the Subcommittee o Africa Affairs of the Seate Foreig Relatios Committee, Somalia: U.S. Policy Optios, S. Hrg , 107th Cog., 2d sess., February 6, 2002, p A civil war is a violet iteral coflict withi a coutry i which oe or more of the ivolved parties are tryig to chage the govermet or its policies. It ca iclude isurgecies, ethic or sectaria violece, or separatist coflicts. The violece threshold used by may academic specialists to determie whether a coflict passes as a civil war is 1,000 killed over the course of the fightig. See, for istace, James Fearo, Civil War Defiitio Trasceds Politics, Washigto Post, April 9, 2006, p. B3. 4 Policy Focus #78

19 The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War Michael Eisestadt flict with Israel, that the PA fids itself i such a crisis should probably come as o surprise. How Palestiia vulerabilities were compouded by Palestiia (ad to a lesser extet, Israeli, U.S., EU, ad Arab) policies, ad how the PA has bee brought to the brik of collapse, are discussed below. The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy 5

20 Characteristics ad Cotours of Palestiia State Failure T h e m o s t i m p o rta t f u c t i o of ay govermet is to provide for the security ad welfare of its citizes. Perhaps the clearest sig that the PA has failed i this area is what Palestiias refer to as the state of isecurity i the territories, characterized by the four Fs : fawda (chaos), fita (iteral strife), falata (lawlessess), ad fassad (corruptio).1 This failure is also evidet i the decliig capacity of the PA to deliver vital services to the Arab residets of the territories.2 Chaos, Strife, Lawlessess, ad Corruptio Isecurity i the Palestiia territories is ot a ew pheomeo; it dates to the later phases of the secod itifada. The chaotic situatio o the streets of the Palestiia territories at that time is best captured by the words of Gaza prevetive security chief Rashid Abu Shabak i his 2004 testimoy before a Palestiia Legislative Coucil (PLC) committee ivestigatig the matter: Most of the security forces do ot have disciplie or cotrol over their people. Each orgaizatio does what it wats ad imposes its will o the PA, ad o side ca say it is i cotrol.... Most of the militiame represet the geeral atmosphere istead of the law ad order of the PA. It is threateig the etire atioal project.... There is o deterrece of crimials ad collaborators, ad we are forced to deal with problems usig cla methods, rather tha legal methods. If this cotiues, it will sed difficult messages to our people, to the Israelis who claim there is o Palestiia parter ad to the iteratioal commuity, that we do t deserve a state.3 The ed of the itifada i 2004 did ot halt iter-palestiia violece i the territories. Istead, iterecie violece icreased, particularly i Gaza, where, followig the Israeli withdrawal i August 2005, Palestiias icreasigly tured their gus o each other.4 Figures for the umber of people killed ad kidapped i Gaza i the past five years provide a sese of the scope ad magitude of the problem before the Hamas takeover. Accordig to the Gaza-based Al Meza Ceter for Huma Rights, 2 Palestiias were killed i iterecie violece i 2002; 18 were killed i 2003; 57 were killed ad 16 kidapped i 2004; 101 were killed ad 39 kidapped i 2005; 260 were killed ad 123 kidapped i 2006; ad 422 were killed ad 296 kidapped i just the first half of With the Hamas takeover of Gaza i Jue 2007, violece ad kidappig decreased dramatically, followed by sigs of a retur of the state of isecurity to Gaza i Sep- 1. Dr. Mahdi Abdul Hadi, The Crisis of Fateh (miutes of coferece sposored by the Palestiia Academic Society for the Study of Iteratioal Affairs), July 27, 2005 (available olie at ad Graham Usher, The Struggle for Goverace, Al- Ahram Weekly O-Lie, Jue 30 July 6, 2005 (available olie at This study does ot address the issue of corruptio i the PA ad the Palestiia territories i detail. Corruptio does ot seem to be a major drag o ecoomic activity. Thus, accordig to a recet World Bak study, Corruptio... do[es] ot appear to be a major costrait to ivestmet. Most maagers reported ot havig to pay ay bribes ad for those who did, they paid less o average tha i most eighborig coutries. Fiace ad Private Sector Developmet Group, Social ad Ecoomic Developmet Departmet, Middle East ad North Africa Regio, West Bak ad Gaza Ivestmet Climate Assessmet: Ulockig the Potetial of the Private Sector (World Bak, March 20, 2007), pp. ii, 14, 21, 22, 24, 25, 33. Corruptio is, however, a major political issue, ad does appear to be a sigificat costrait o the PA s istitutioal effectiveess. 2. This coclusio, of course, begs the questio whether assessig the performace of the PA i the terms oe would use to assess the performace of a traditioal state is appropriate. Some Palestiia leaders, such as the late Yasser Arafat, seemed to view the PA as a trasitioal etity whose primary purpose was ot effective goverace, but promotio of various sectioal iterests (persoal, cla, or party) ad the prosecutio of the struggle agaist Israel. 3. Aro Regular, Palestiia Lawmakers: Arafat Evadig Promises of Reform, Haaretz (Tel Aviv), August 11, Chris McGreal, Lawless i Gaza, Guardia (Lodo), Jauary 23, 2006; Gaza: Death ad Disitegratio All Roud, The Ecoomist, September 7, Kidappig statistics iclude foreigers abducted by Palestiia crimial gags ad armed factios. Al Meza Ceter for Huma Rights, Statistics o Icidets of Security Urest i the Gaza Strip (available olie at ad Al Meza Ceter for Huma Rights, Report o the Cotiuatio ad Itesificatio of the Pheomeo of Security Urest ad the Absece of the Rule of Law, Gaza, First Quarter 2007 (i Arabic) (available olie at ). Mior discrepacies were foud betwee statistics i the Eglish- ad Arabic-laguage reports o the al Meza website. Statistics i the Arabic reports were used oly to supplemet the statistics cotaied i the Eglish-laguage reports. 6 Policy Focus #78

21 The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War Michael Eisestadt tember November 2007 (maily i the form of tesio ad violece betwee supporters of Fatah ad the Hamas security forces). The reewed violece, however, is owhere ear levels experieced prior to the Hamas takeover.6 Petty ad serious crime reportedly icreased i both the West Bak ad Gaza durig the later phases of the secod itifada ad agai followig the impositio of sactios o the PA followig the Jauary 2006 Hamas electio victory.7 Accordig to West Bak police chief Col. Ada al-damiri, crime i the West Bak was up 60 percet i 2006 over the previous year. The major types of crime iclude drug traffickig, robbery, auto theft, kidappig, ad murder.8 The icrease i crime sice Jauary 2006 was apparetly caused i part by iteratioal sactios imposed o the PA followig parliametary electios, which hurt Fatah s ability to maitai its patroage etwork. As a result, may former beeficiaries of patroage, icludig members of the al-aqsa Martyrs Brigades may of whom had started out i life as petty crimials agai took up a life of crime to recoup lost icome. Aother sig of the PA s declie was the icreasigly frequet violet feuds betwee rival families, particularly i Gaza before the Hamas takeover, as people tured to their cla, rather tha the PA, for protectio ad dispute resolutio. Eve the PA resorted to cla mechaisms rather tha the weak ad ieffective legal system to deal with out-of-cotrol armed factios.9 This growig reliace o tribal law as a meas of mediatig ad resolvig coflicts is a commo pheomeo i strife-tor ad postcoflict societies, where the govermet is o loger able to esure law ad order or to dispese justice, ad it is a sure sig of the weakess of the state.10 Moreover, sice the establishmet of the PA i 1994, various armed groups (Hamas, the PIJ, the Popular Frot for the Liberatio of Palestie [PFLP], ad later the al-aqsa Martyrs Brigades ad the Popular Resistace Committees) have bee allowed to bear arms opely ad to attack Israel or Israeli targets, sometimes cotrary to the wishes of the PA, sometimes with its tacit approval, ad sometimes with the direct assistace or active participatio of seior PA officials.11 The PA has cosistetly prove uwillig or uable to establish a moopoly over the legitimate use of force i the territories a key defiig feature of a successful state. This policy backfired o Fatah ad the PA. The surfeit of gus o the streets of the territories cotributed 6. Al Meza Ceter for Huma Rights, Al Meza Calls for Ivestigatios ito Acts of Abductio ad Torture; Face Icreasig Lack of Security i Gaza, Press Release, October 2, Available olie ( Other maifestatios of the state of isecurity i Gaza durig 2006 icluded 52 icidets of attacks o civilias, commuity figures, ad security persoel; 137 clashes ivolvig armed factios; 214 icidets of family feuds ad acts of revege (resultig i 90 dead ad 336 ijured); 139 istaces of the misuse of arms ad bombigs; 121 attacks o private property ad public facilities (icludig the torchig of private homes ad attacks o PA facilities); 128 kidappigs for purposes of revege, as part of iterecie struggles betwee armed groups or to blackmail the PA ito hirig family members; 42 road closigs ad establishmet of roadblocks; 64 usolved killigs; a uspecified icrease i the icidece of burglary of houses, theft of cars, ad the lootig of electrical power lies; ad the illegal seizure of 2,957 duums of govermet-owed lads (most of which formerly beloged to Israeli settlemets i Gaza) by various idividuals ad armed factios. All figures here are from Al Meza Ceter for Huma Rights, Field Work Uit, Jugle of Gus & Law of the Jugle: Report o Ifrigemets upo the Law ad the State of Isecurity i the Gaza Strip (Gaza, Jauary 2007). Available olie ( isecurity_e.pdf ). These figures do ot iclude the thousads of Israeli automobiles that are stole ad brought to the West Bak each year. 7. Ferry Biederma, Crime Soars i Palestiia Areas, Iter Press Service News Agecy, February 3, 2004 (available olie at asp?idews=22227); Peter Keyo, Gaza Crime Rates Rise, Natioal Public Radio, All Thigs Cosidered, February 9, 2004 (available olie at www. pr.org/programs/atc/trascripts/2004/feb/ keyo.html); Chris McGreal, Lawless i Gaza ; World Food Program, Occupied Palestiia Territories, Emergecy Report o. 19, May 12, 2006; ad UN Office for the Coordiatio of Humaitaria Affairs (OCHA), The Impact of the Palestiia Authority s Year of Declie o Its Employees: The Case of Jei, OCHA Special Focus, April 2007, p PA Police Chief: West Bak Crime up 60%; Blames Militats, Poverty, Associated Press, Jauary 22, Aro Regular, Palestiia Lawmakers: Arafat Evadig Promises of Reform, Haaretz (Tel Aviv), August 11, For a dramatic example of how a apparetly mior disagreemet betwee a street vedor ad a customer i Gaza became a violet cla feud that cost the lives of fourtee people, see Charles Leviso, I Lawless Gaza, Cla Wars Thrive, Agece Frace-Presse, November 21, See also. Gaza: Death ad Disitegratio All Roud, The Ecoomist, September 7, For examples from postcollapse Somalia ad post-saddam Iraq, see Ke Mekhaus, Somalia: State Collapse ad the Threat of Terrorism, Adelphi Paper 364 (Lodo: Iteratioal Istitute for Strategic Studies, 2004), pp , ad Rory Stewart, The Price of the Marshes (Orlado, Fla.: Harcourt, Ic., 2006), pp The best-kow case is that of Gaza police chief Ghazi Jabali, who i 1997 allegedly ordered a series of attacks o Israeli settlemets. Israel subsequetly issued a warrat for his arrest. He was ever arrested by Israel ad remais free today i Gaza. Roi Shaked, Expose: Hamas Murderers uder Arafat s Aegis, Yediot Aharoot (Tel Aviv), October 15, 1997, Sukkot Supplemet, pp The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy

22 Michael Eisestadt The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War to the formatio of armed crimial gags ad made coductig a cosistet policy toward Israel impossible (because ay armed factio could play the role of spoiler). Whe Fatah bega to fragmet ad the power struggle betwee Fatah ad Hamas evetually itesified, the failure of the PA to esure that oly law eforcemet ad security officials carried arms cotributed to the lethality of iterecie violece i the Palestiia territories ad evetually paved the way for the Hamas takeover of Gaza. Limited Istitutioal Capacity The istitutioal capacity of the PA has bee hidered by iefficiecy, croyism ad corruptio, a bloated security sector that has grow at the expese of civilia public service istitutios, ad costraits created by the cotiued Israeli occupatio of the West Bak. Because of these limitatios, iteratioal orgaizatios (such as UNRWA), private service providers, Palestiia NGOs, ad political movemets or parties (such as Hamas) have played a major role as service providers to the Palestiia residets of the territories. Accordig to a 2006 Birzeit Uiversity poll, of the 39 percet of Palestiia respodets who stated that their family sought exteral sources of fiacial support to meet their eeds (34.8 percet of West Bak respodets, 46.9 percet of Gaza respodets), a plurality (20 percet) stated that their families depeded o NGOs ad charities. Other sources of support icluded family or cla members (17.7 percet), PA istitutios (13.5 percet), UNRWA (13.2 percet), frieds (8.1 percet), political groups (1.1 percet), ad others (4.1 percet).12 A recet World Bak study of the role of NGOs i the territories provided corroboratig data for these figures. Accordig to that study, UNRWA, private providers, ad Palestiia NGOs together accout for 51.7 percet of total household use of health services i the Palestiia territories. Moreover, private providers ad Palestiia NGOs accout for 71 percet of agricultural services (although this fidig is a atural outgrowth of PA policy i this sector, which has emphasized regulatio, rather tha service provisio) ad 92 percet of preschool educatioal services (although the umber drops to 30 percet for primary ad secodary school educatioal services).13 Perhaps most remarkably, i Gaza, UN orgaizatios (UNRWA ad the World Food Program) provide food aid to 80 percet of the populatio.14 Hamas operates a variety of social welfare ad educatioal istitutios i the territories particularly i the Gaza Strip that provide a much broader rage of services tha are provided by most civil society istitutios elsewhere. Its dawa (Islamic outreach) istitutios were used to recruit ad mobilize Palestiias. These istitutios iclude various Hamas-affiliated charitable foudatios that provided fiacial assistace to the poor ad to wouded fighters, the families of prisoers, ad martyrs (icludig suicide bombers); dozes of medical cliics that dispese free medicie ad provide free medical care to the Palestiia public; orphaages; more tha 100 educatioal istitutios from ursery schools to Gaza s Islamic Uiversity; ad hudreds of Hamas-affiliated mosques.15 How the emergece of a Hamas admiistratio i Gaza ad the PA decisio i August 2007 to close dow 103 charities i the West Bak may of which were coected to Hamas will alter its mode of operatio or its ability to fud its ogovermetal ad govermetal activities is uclear Birzeit Uiversity, Developmet Studies Programme, Public Opiio Poll #28, Livig Coditios, Evaluatio of Istitutios & Leaders, the Proposed Govermet, Palestiia Electios & Political Support, Palestiia-Israeli Negotiatios, Hezbollah & Hamas, September 20, Available olie ( 13. World Bak ad Bisa Ceter for Research ad Developmet, The Role ad Performace of Palestiia NGOs i Health, Educatio ad Agriculture, December Address by UNRWA Commissioer-Geeral Kare Koig AbuZayd to the Political ad Security Committee of the EU Coucil of Miisters, Brussels, April 27, Available olie ( ). 15. Matthew Levitt, Hamas: Politics, Charity, ad Terrorism i the Service of Jihad (New Have: Yale Uiversity Press, 2006), pp , , ; Zohar Palti, Advacig Palestiia Society by Weakeig Hamas, PeaceWatch o. 441 (Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy, Jauary 21, 2004). 16. Adam Etous, U.S.-Backed Campaig agaist Hamas Expads to Charities, Reuters, August 20, 2007; Khalid Abu Toameh, Closed Hamas Charities May Go Udergroud, Jerusalem Post, August 31, Policy Focus #78

23 The Palestiias: Betwee State Failure ad Civil War Michael Eisestadt Because of a lack of reliable iformatio, the curret istitutioal capacity of the PA is difficult to assess accurately. The most authoritative published assessmet of the PA s ability to deliver services ad gover was a (ow somewhat dated) November 2006 World Bak assessmet of the istitutioal performace of the PA uder sactios, which reported the followig amog its major fidigs: PA miistries ad departmets cotiued to operate ad to provide core services, albeit at reduced levels. As of late September 2006, work had halted at may miistries ad agecies because of fiscal difficulties ad a public-sector employees strike to protest opaymet of salaries (which eded i December 2006). Educatio, health, ad social services were compromised sigificatly by the fiscal crisis ad the civil servats strike. The assessmet cocludes by otig the risk that the fiscal crisis sparked by the impositio of iteratioal sactios could cause sigificat log-term damage to PA goverig structures ad services.17 A more recet UN assessmet of istitutioal degradatio i the Palestiia territories caused by iteratioal sactios, published i April 2007, drew similar, if somewhat more dire, coclusios: The PA as a goverig body [has] essetially ceased to fuctio.... [L]ie miistries have bee experiecig shortages of fuel, medical equipmet, school supplies, all of which reduced their capacity to deliver services. Saitatio, educatio, health services have all sustaied protracted periods of disitegratio. Employee strikes due to opaymet of salaries ad abseteeism have curtailed the provisio of services i public hospitals, forcig people... to resort to private cliics.18 Other published assessmets cocluded that the fiscal crisis ad ogoig violece have affected the istitutioal capacity of the PA. Accordig to the Iteratioal Moetary Fud (IMF), productio of govermet services fell by about 10 percet i 2006, based o workdays lost ad reductios i goods ad services acquired by the PA.19 A Oxfam survey of public-sector service directors ad seior maagers coducted i March 2007 foud that 86 percet reported that iteratioal sactios had adversely affected their orgaizatio s services ad that 54 percet reported that they had reduced services by more tha half as a result.20 Although the claim that PA services had bee cut by more tha half seems improbably high ad is ot supported by the admittedly limited statistical data reported by the IMF or by aecdotal reportig from the Palestiia territories, o doubt exists that the evets of the past year ad a half have hidered the delivery of services ad udermied istitutios of Palestiia goverace. Noetheless, the UN report (writte followig the impositio of iteratioal sactios o the Hamasled govermet but before the Hamas takeover of Gaza) poits out that the PA istitutios remaied i place, eve if their fuctioig was subpar because of high abseteeism rates (32 percet i 2006), demoralizatio caused by arrearages i paymet of salaries, ad the territorial ad istitutioal fragmetatio of the PA.21 The report cocludes by otig that while PA istitutios have become largely dysfuctioal, they have ot disitegrated. After a decade of reforms ad capacity buildig, these istitutios have established a solid set of procedures, accoutig practices, elaborate ad trasparet budgets ad fiacial cotrols, which have all bee codified by their staff. While, these istitutios have bee largely margialized by the parallel paymets mechaisms, the civil service has ot yet deserted its fuctios, migrated to the private sector, or abroad World Bak, Copig with Crisis: Palestiia Authority Istitutioal Performace ( Jerusalem, November 2006), pp Karim Nashashibi, Palestiia Fiace uder Siege: Ecoomic Declie ad Istitutioal Degradatio, OCHA Special Focus, April 2007, p Iteratioal Moetary Fud ad World Bak, West Bak ad Gaza: Ecoomic Developmets i 2006 A First Assessmet, March 2007, p Oxfam Iteratioal, Poverty i Palestie: The Huma Cost of the Fiacial Boycott, Oxfam Briefig Note, April 2007, p. 4. Available olie (www. oxfam.org.uk/what_we_do/issues/debt_aid/dowloads/b_poverty_palestie.pdf ). 21. Nashashibi, Palestiia Fiace uder Siege, pp. 13, Ibid., p. 17. The Washigto Istitute for Near East Policy 9