4/11/18. PSCI 2500 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Jim Butterfield Davis Arthur-Yeboah April 11, 2018

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1 PSCI 2500 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Jim Butterfield Davis Arthur-Yeboah April 11, 2018 Office hours: Davis: M-Th 3:00-4:30 JB: Tu 4:00-5:30, W 2:00-4:00 From last Wednesday, know for the final exam: What are the various types of migrants? What factors compel each type to migrate? What does the evidence say about the relationship between illegal immigration and crime in the US? jimbutterfield.org/2500.html From Monday, know for the final exam: What are the various components of the expanded meaning of human security? What did it replace? What factors have compelled states to become more interventionist in the last century? What are the various models of state intervention into economy and society? Be able to do a cost/benefits analysis of free trade and protectionism. Third In-Class Paper Open notes (but not open book). At least one page. Handwriting must be legible. Write in sentences (i.e., not a list). 15 minutes. Third In-Class Paper Today Answer either one of the following: 1. How much should the international community do to protect human rights? Why? How much can it do? Current events Wednesday: Iran. Global Economic Governance. 2. How much should the international community do to fight poverty? Why? How much can it do? 1

2 Iran: A Rogue State? Current Events Wednesday April 11, 2018 Today Why is Iran strategically important? Why is Iran considered a rogue state? Iran: Primer Historically called Persia. Language: Farsi (Persian). Ethnicity: Iranian (not Arab) Approximate in size to Alaska. Population: 81 million. 18 th in the world in both area and population. Caspian Sea Basin Persian Gulf Iran: Strategically Important Historical invasion route between East and West (e.g. Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, Timur the Great). Strategic importance today: Center of Shia Islam. Heart of oil, gas region. Mongol invasion of Iran, 1220 Major producers of oil, natural gas 2

3 Iran: Strategically Important Largest Shia population in the world. Islam has doctrinal divisions, just as Christianity. Main division: Shia (~13%) vs Sunni (~87%). Iran's top rival: Saudi Arabia, the center of Sunni Islam. Persian Gulf Distribution of World's Muslims IRAQ Iraq: mixed Shia and Sunni Iran: Strategically Important One of the world's most important "choke points" Fourth largest oil reserves. Second largest natural gas reserves. 20% of world's oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz. 21 miles wide 3

4 The World's "Choke Points" Iran and the US 1941: Mohammad Reza Pahlavi becomes Shah of Iran. 1951: Mohammad Mosaddeq became prime minister. Moved to nationalize the oil industry. Oil transit, millions b/d Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Mohammad Mosaddeq Iran and the US 1953: US and UK engineered a coup to remove Mossadeq. Control over oil by multinational companies was reestablished. Oil, the Western Powers and the Middle East Until roughly 1973, seven oil companies (the "seven sisters") controlled 85% of the world's oil. US/UK/Dutch. Oil companies explored, drilled, extracted, transported, refined, and sold. Mossadeq in court, Who benefited from cheap oil? The Reaction Source countries: few discernible benefits = remain poor Oil companies: every step = more profit Consumption countries: cheap energy = get richer. 1970s: wave of nationalization of oil and gas production. Result: substantial increase in price of crude oil. Iran: full control over oil wells in But, what else happened in 1979?à 4

5 Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini leads revolution to overthrow the Shah. Iranian Revolution The Islamic Republic of Iran was created in December Khomeini became the supreme leader. It is a ** theocracy: theological (religious) rule of the political system. Anti-Western because of secularism, support for corrupt dictators. Anti-American: the "Great Satan" Iranian revolutionaries occupy the American embassy in Tehran. 5

6 Hostage Crisis Women in Iran Before the Revolution 52 American hostages were held for 444 days. Women in Iran After the Revolution Street art in Iran: the "Great Satan" today. Iran as a Rogue State: Israel Iran as a Rogue State: Terrorism Committed to the elimination of the Israeli state. Current Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: "It is the mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to erase Israel from the map of the region." Support for terrorist groups in the Middle East. Designated by US as "state sponsor of terrorism." 6

7 President Bush: Iran, Iraq and North Korea are an "axis of evil". Iran as a Rogue State: Nukes Nuclear program: Iran claims for power generation only. In fact: research and development of nuclear weapons. 2006: UN sanctions imposed on Iran. Sanction on Iran's oil and banking sector were applied by US in UN sanctions (2006) focused on nuclear and missile technology Nuclear Deal The "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" negotiated by the P5+1. P5 = UN P5; 1 = Iran. Iran: eliminate existing fuel stockpiles; stop R & D. UN: end sanctions (effective January 2016). Nuclear Deal: Status Liberal internationalist Approved by Obama. Opposed by President Trump and his (current) key advisers. Realist New National Security Adviser John Bolton 7

8 Sum The Conundrum Iran occupies a strategically important position: Geography. Center of Shia Islam. Resources (fossil fuels). The history of antagonism between Iran and the US goes back to the 1950s and has continually escalated. Iran fits the definition of a rogue state: states that do not adhere to international norms of behavior. How can the international community best deal with a rogue state? 8

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