Iraq and the Unfinished Business of the War on Terror. All three of these movements have had the US in their sights for some time the

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1 arrested, even though we still don t know the fate of Osama bin Laden himself. movements at war with us: The Shiite Islamists, embodied the ruling clerics in Iran. of this computer coming from file the more at all modern times, approach of and the Sayed only Khatab group authorizes in Egypt. The the use of this here file particularly to of make the Iraqi Baathists, film although and Syria printing can also be included. plates Shiites since 1979; the fascist Baathists since 1991 because, for them, as Saddam Saddam often says, Iraq and the Unfinished Business of the War on Terror JAMES WOOLSEY WAS DIRECTOR OF THE US CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY FROM 1993 TO HE SPOKE WITH NPQ EDITOR NATHAN GARDELS. NPQ It has been a year since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington by Al Qaeda. What have been the successes in the war on terror? What remains to be done? JAMES WOOLSEY Despite the uncertainty that remains over Afghanistan s future, the war against terror must be regarded as a major victory. Al Qaeda has been deprived of its base of operations. A substantial number of the key cadre have been of mass destruction violation of their obligations under the cease-fire and UN with a variety of terrorist groups. out written the Gulf War never permission ended. and fair compensation to But beyond this, the terrorist threat to the United States remains. There are three The Sunni Islamists of Al Qaeda and others bolstered substantially by funding from Saudi Arabia and the closely parallel beliefs of the Wahabi sect as well as the Islamists third movement is the Baathists, modeled after the fascists in Europe. I m speaking All three of these movements have had the US in their sights for some time the often says, the Gulf War never ended. They continue to work on building weapons resolutions, and their intelligence services continue to work The Sunni Islamists were more focused on the near enemy of infidel Arab regimes until the mid- 90s when, under Al Qaeda s leadership, they shifted their aim to Crusaders and Jews. All these movements regard themselves as being at war with America. Only the Al Qaeda Sunni Islamists have been dealt a substantial blow by the US and its allies. Fortunately for the West, the Shiite Islamists are dealing themselves body blows with their endless internal struggles. They are so mismanaging their economy and are so alienating young people and women that their fate today looks a lot like the Kremlin leaders in 1988 or the French monarchy in The storm is not here yet, but it is gathering. The important thing here is not trying to get along with the faux reformers such as (Iran s) President Khatami clearly the 46

2 ruling mullahs poodle in pursuit of investment that comes with better European relations but supporting the real reformers like the students, jailed newspaper editors and Ayatollah (Hossein Ali) Montazeri. NPQ The unfinished agenda, therefore, has to do with Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Let s take Saudi Arabia first. What to do there? WOOLSEY The Sunni Islamists, the Wahabis and the Saudi money that supports them are a huge problem. The Saudis struck a Faustian bargain in the 1970s with the Wahabi clerics, who would get all the money they could dream of to spread their particularly angry, hostile anti-infidel brand of faith in exchange for turning a blind eye to the corruption and decadent lifestyles of the Saudi royal family. So, in addition to rooting out Al Qaeda and the Sunni Islamists, we need to break the power of the Saudi oil weapon, the sword that they hold over the economies of the West. It is the Saudi swing capacity of 3 million barrels a day what oil experts call the Saudis nuclear weapon that Design. Steven Rachwal Design maintains Al Qaeda and the ownership Sunni Islamists, pushes spot oil prices up or down on a daily basis. We need, therefore, to move quickly and decisively toward of this more fuel computer efficiency for our file automobiles, at all such times, as throughand only the Saudi authorizes oil weapon. hybrid engines. We need to produce more renewable fuels. We the need use to construct of this more pipelines file to with make Russia so it can film take over and a larger printing share of the plates world oil market. We need to enlarge not only the US oil reserves but encourage our allies to build their own so that if and when the Saudis threaten to use their oil weapon, we are able to neutralize the effect on the spot market. power. The Saudis were America s allies in the Cold War and even our friends. But This will begin to undercut their ability to use their only real instrument of state we are past that now. NPQ Now, what to do about Iraq? WOOLSEY It is important to make certain that as we move to change the regime in Iraq, we do it decisively and in a way that everyone knows we are determined to succeed. It is very important that our objective be a decent regime oriented toward democracy, not just a coup that replaces one Baathist dictator with another. If our NATO allies and Britain and Turkey are with us and we are able to use our bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait we will be able to succeed. It would be useful to have a base of operations in Saudi Arabia, but not essential. Indeed, the only way to gain the cooperation of the Saudis is when they see we can go ahead without them and don t need them. Then they won t want to be on the wrong side of history, which they are now. In addition to rooting out we need to break the power of 47

3 NPQ What military scenario can be assured of success? WOOLSEY We need to be able to use bases in Turkey. And we need to be able to work with the British who, as the Afghanistan campaign has shown, have the kind of force capabilities that mesh well with ours in a way that our other allies do not. Most European countries are well equipped to defend against an invasion from Byelorussia with infantry and artillery, but have only partial capabilities to defend against chemical or bacteriological warfare and not very well developed special forces. But here is the key point: In the Gulf War, we used 5 percent smart weapons, and we did not directly target command and control centers or the instrumentalities of The kind of targeted pounding Assuming we use that same proportion of smart weapons and we can execute would convince the mainline Iraqi army the Iraqi state such as the Republican Guard and weapons now less than half the force of the Gulf War to surrender of this computer file at execute all would times, convince and the mainline only Iraqi authorizes army now less to whoever comes along. the use of this file to make film and printing plates There is even a chance that, with the right kind of cooperation from Kurds military force akin to the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. In the south, there is no sales, alterations copying is strictly prohibited with- 200,000 US troops. state power. In Afghanistan, we used 65 percent smart weapons. attack command and control facilities as well as key organs of sites an air campaign would have a decisive result relatively early on. Certainly, the kind of targeted pounding we can than half the force of the Gulf War to surrender to whoever comes along. It wouldn t take five weeks, the way it did in 1991, when the army gave up to anyone who came along, including to Italian TV crews. and Turkemans in the northern sanctuaries, we could put together an effective sanctuary or comparable indigenous force. There we would need 100,000 In the event that the Republican Guard fights on in Baghdad, even as the mainstream army surrenders, the battle could well turn bloody. That is why we must have overwhelming troop strength going in. NPQ Is your concern that Iraq will use its weapons of mass destruction against the US, or that those weapons will be covertly supplied to, or otherwise fall into the hands of, terrorists who would use them? WOOLSEY Both. Allowing the Iraqi regime with its ties to terrorism, its historic ambitions and its demonstrated willingness to use chemical weapons against Iran in war and its own Kurdish population to continue to develop its capacity with each passing month is a mistake we are certain to tragically regret. It would be an historical mistake as great as failing to confront Hitler after he took the Rhineland 48

4 in 1934 to let Saddam continue, day after day, to fulfill his goal of attaining longrange ballistic missile, nuclear and further chemical capabilities. When Europe finally drew the line against Hitler when he invaded Poland four years later in 1939, he was too strong to stop. The West just can t sit here and wait for Saddam to build up weapons of mass destruction. NPQ The new doctrine that has arisen out of this asymmetric battle against terror is forward deterrence, or preemption. Since terrorists always have the advantage of secretly striking at any time by coming to your soil, the only defense is to get them where they are now before they develop the capability of a devastating strike. Do you agree with the emergent doctrine of 21st-century warfare? WOOLSEY That is an important part of the new thinking. As far as legality is concerned, though, we are still at war with Iraq. The UN and the US Congress authorized it in Saddam doesn t believe the war is over. He is still violation of the cease-fire agreement. The real risk here is that someone at the UN will come up with a half-baked of this inspection computer scheme that Saddam file will at agree all to and times, people will and say, Oh, only now theauthorizes problem is solved. Nonsense. He cheated on the inspection regime before. He lied the about use having of no this biological file weapons to make capability until film his son-in-law and printing defected and plates spilled the beans. Now Saddam is lying by saying that he destroyed those weapons. And we know he has mobile laboratories. How we can be confident in an inspection regime with mobile labs that move His capabilities are too widely dispersed and buried. Anyone out the back door when you knock at the front? which assassination, deception who believes an inspection regime will work is in denial. They are an ostrich with their head in the sand. We are fighting a new war in which assassination, deception and hiding one s identity the traditional attributes of desert warfare dominate the enemy s strategy. We can t try to fight this war as if one state were attacking another, crossing the border with flags flying. We have to fight the war that has been brought to us. The Shiite and Sunni Islamists have fought against us with hijackings, unsuspected terror attacks and hidden money transfers. The Baathist fascists under Saddam fought a more traditional war by invading Kuwait. This time around Saddam won t make the same mistake. He will try to assert influence because he possesses weapons of mass destruction. He will try to give those weapons to terrorist groups to hit us, as Saddam s son Quesay threatened recently. We are fighting a new war in and hiding one s identity the traditional attributes of desert warfare dominate the enemy s strategy. 49

5 It would be foolhardy for us to pretend that our enemies are going to abide by the treaty rules associated with Westphalia and the emergence of the nation-state. Today we face a much more difficult war than that between two armed nation-states. So, we must fight back in kind. And preemption, or forward deterrence, certainly ought to be one of the new tools in our arsenal. Design. Steven The Rachwal United States Design vs. the maintains Empire of Law ownership of this computer INCLUDE file THE SEMINAL at all The times, Death of Artemio and Cruz, only SERVES authorizes ON THE EDITO- the use of this file to make film and printing plates International Law of the United Nations, Ambassador Roberto Cordova, a stellar MGM, more stars than the sky. sales, alterations copying is strictly prohibited without written permission and fair compensation to The principal promoter of Nuremberg and of the legislation of war crimes in 1945 was the United States of America. CARLOS FUENTES, THE MEXICAN NOVELIST AND DIPLOMAT WHOSE BOOKS RIAL ADVISORY BOARD OF New Perspectives Quarterly. MEXICO CITY My first diplomatic experience occurred in a now very distant 1950 when I served in Geneva as secretary to the Mexican member of the Commission on career diplomat in a Mexican foreign service corps which at that time had, like JUDGMENT AT NUREMBERG Those events echo today in my memory because the principal theme that occupied Cordova and the Commission on International Law in 1950 had to do with the legitimacy of the processes initiated by the victorious powers of World War II against conquered Nazi Germany. The dispute was clear. Did an ex-post-facto tribunal that is, a tribunal created after the crimes themselves have the right to judge the deeds of the past? Didn t Nuremberg violate the cardinal principle of criminal law established since the Romans, nullum crimen nulla poena sinae previa lege penale that is, no crime and no punishment without a law that precedes it? Or, on the contrary, didn t the fact that the crimes being judged atrocities, massacres and executions without due process were already crimes before World War II give full legitimacy to the Nuremberg Tribunal? And in any case, weren t the crimes of the Nazi regime so 50