Cabinet of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Transcription

1 Youth Movements: Protest! Power! Progress? Cabinet of the Islamic Republic of Iran The Green Movement Director: Leo Goldman Assistant Director: Marcelo Escalante

2 CJMUNC Highland Park Model United Nations/Congress(HPMUNC) This document was created solely for the use of Central Jersey Model United Nations and Congress (CJMUNC) Other uses are not permitted without explicit permission.from HPMUNC. Please contact us at hpmunc@gmail.com.

3 CJMUNC INDEX POLICY DILEMMA. 3 CHRONOLOGY. 3-4 ACTORS AND INTERESTS 5-6 POSSIBLE CAUSES..7 PROJECTIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 7-8 COMMITTEE ROLES.9-10 DISCUSSION QUESTIONS..11 BIBLIOGRAPHY....12

4 CJMUNC Policy Dilemma: The 2009 election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a conservative hardliner, prompted uproar among the Iranian electorate. In response, the suppression of political opponents such as Mir Mousavi, caused activists to initiate what has become known as the Green Movement, a political movement within Iran that demands fairer elections and protests corruption within the government. Galvanized with slogans such as where s my vote, protesters expressed frustrations with economic failures, political corruption, and national leadership. The movement has ultimately led to the denunciation of the Islamic Republic and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The government arrested Mousavi and other Green Movement leaders, in a campaign to censor the movement. Unrest continues into 2018; protests, often led by students, threaten the authority of the Iranian government. Chronology: The 1979 Islamic Revolution: The Islamic Revolution, also known as the Iranian Revolution internationally, was a series of events leading up to the ousting of the Palvani Dynasty, or the Shah. The Shah were a Persian monarchy that seized control of Iran for over 2,500 years. This was due to a history of class conflicts and rising frustrations within the working class that came with the rapid industrial growth that skyrocketed during the 1970s. The government was replaced by an Islamic Republic and ruled by the Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolutionary movement. The movement was supported fiercely by Islamic leftist groups and Iranian Youth. The revolution changed a pro-western monarchy into an anti-western theocracy, seeing that the Shah was a large supporter of the United States and those involved with in the revolution, were not. 1989: Supreme Leader Khamenei is succeeded by Ali Khamenei After replacing Khomeini as Supreme Leader of Iran in 1989, Khamenei needed to find a new political base of his own that was separated from the disenfranchised working class that Khomeini was able to mobilize. Khamenei was not a natural politician and lacked the charisma as well as the religious credentials to continue to gain support from the working class that started the revolution in Iran. Although Khomeini had banned the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) from participating in politics, Khamenei encouraged both political and economic participation in this controversial group.

5 CJMUNC June 12th, 2009: The Iranian Presidential Elections: Countless human rights violations including juvenile death penalty, mistreatment of LGBT citizens, and voter fraud left former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad chances of winning re election in 2009 slim. This was particularly prevalent in urban areas and with the younger voters of Iran. And so, going into June 2009, Former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi was the frontrunner. However, when the results came out, Ahmadinejad led by a landslide and this caused great disagreement between the government and the opposition about the results of the election. Mousavi and his supporters believed the results were fraudulent and accused Ahmadinejad s administration of interfering. Therefore, Mousavi claimed victory and around the same time Ahmadinejad did the same thing. This sparked public outcry from Prime Minister Mousavi and his followers. June 15: Mousavi and his supports begin protests On June 15th, Mousavi rallied with hundreds of thousands of his supporters in Tehran, the nation s capital, despite warnings from state officials of legality. The demonstration was the largest the new Islamic Republic had seen in its 30 year history and was Mousavi s first public appearance after the election. Protests were focused around the Azadi Tower and gunshots were reported to have been fired. Mousavi s general rally cry seemed to be that the vote of the people was more important than his candidacy or anyone else s for that matter. A large number of those in the crowd were from Mousavi s younger voter base. All opposition candidates attended. June onward: Competing rallies and the Birth of the Green Movement Pro-Ahmadinejad rallies broke out the next day and although they did not match Mousavi s crowds the day before, they did outnumber the Mousavi crowds on June 16th. Seeing that Ahmadinejad was anti-west, his protesters chanted, Death to America! Death to Israel! and soon violence broke out between the two sides. According to the Huffington Post, 32 Iranians died in the protest that year. The two sides continue to demonstrate, the Pro Mousavi side, now called the Green Movement, is calling for government reform while the Pro-Ahmadinejad protesters are advocating for the status quo and condemning those who are in the Green Movement.

6 CJMUNC Actors and Interests: The International Community Russia Russia is seen as one of the major influences that drive geopolitical movements in the Middle East. Russia has been one of the main backers of Bashar Al-Assad in the Middle East and opposes the expansion of influence of U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel. For Russia, the stability of Iran is crucial, especially for Russian oil trade and pipelines that go through Iran into the Caucasus. Ultimately, Russia relies on Iran as its main ally in the Middle East as long as anti-western politicians are in control of the Iranian government. Saudi Arabia The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran has historically been very tense. Both sides are fighting proxy wars against each other in the Middle East for expansion of influence in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. The relationship between is due to conflicting islamic ideologies as Saudi Arabia has a Sunni Muslim majority, whereas Iran has a Shia Muslim majority. The conflict between the two have been backed by opposing parties such as the United States and Russia, which has increased the tension between the two nations. Saudi Arabia poses a major threat to the national security of Iran. The protests and instability with pro-western sentiments in Iran could potentially give Saudi Arabia the chance to expand its influence in the region. Israel Historically there has been clear tension between Iran and Israel about nuclear proliferation and conflicting religious ideology. Israel maintains a close relationship with the United States and tends to keep US foreign interests in mind when acting on their own foreign policy. Because Israel opposes Prime Minister Ahmadinejad, the Supreme Leader, and the Cabinet, they potentially have interest in the revolutions that are happening. United States With President Trump in power, the United States has taken a more aggressive plan of action in the world, especially in the Middle East. The United States has fostered many important bilateral relationships and allies in the Middle East, with common objectives to that of the United States. The United States has played an active role in the region ever since the Gulf War, and its presence in the region has been expanding ever since. With the establishment of military bases in

7 CJMUNC Turkey, Qatar, and Bahrain, the United States has encircled Iran and has made itself known as a country that opposes Iranian influence in the region due to the US s ties to Saudi Arabia. For these reasons, the United States is also interested in taking advantage of the Green Movement. United Kingdom Following the Brexit vote and the Salisbury poisoning, the United Kingdom is looking to make itself present on the world stage. The United Kingdom has a very strict policy regarding Iran and is also opposed to the expansion of Iranian and Russian influence in the region. The United Kingdom has been relatively supportive of US policy in the Middle East, and has also developed many friendly relationships with nations friendly to the United States such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. The United Kingdom also has expanded its presence in the Middle East by establishing military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Cyprus. It is likely that the United Kingdom would participate in actions in conjunction with the United States and its allies regarding the protests. France With the election of Emmanuel Macron as president of the French Republic, France has been trying to play a greater role on the foreign stage. Its relationship with the United States is crucial, with France participating in airstrikes against Syria, alongside the United Kingdom and United States. France has also played increasingly important roles in developing the Iran nuclear deal, and fighting Islamic militants in Mali, Syria, and Iraq. France s presence in the Middle East has been expanded with bases in the UAE and Lebanon. It also has friendly relations with America s allies in the region such as Saudi Arabia and Israel. It is also likely that France will participate in actions in conjunction with the United States and its allies regarding the protests. Non-State Actors Hezbollah (Lebanon) Hezbollah is a militant group active in Lebanon, which conducts military operations against Israel and other Sunni terrorists groups such as ISIS in Syria. Hezbollah receives its financial and military support from Iran, Syria, and allegedly from Russia. Hezbollah could be utilized in assisting the Iranian government against the protesters seeing that the Iranian government is their main source of funding.

8 CJMUNC Mir Mousavi and Movement Leaders Movement leaders including former Prime Minister Mir Mousavi have been put under strict house arrest since As they enter their late 70 s and 80 s, the former leaders and founders of the Green movement may be under house arrest indefinitely as Ayatollah Khamenei drew the redline to the seditionist movement. The release of such leaders from house arrests is a national outcry as the movement lays mostly subdued. As the movement finds new leaders they are looking towards the younger generations that have been so involved in the protests and in Mousavi s presidential campaign. Iranian Youth Over the past decade, Iran s economy has plummeted due to international sanctions and unemployment for the expanding middle class. Frustrated with the deflated job market, Iran's youth took to the streets in an attempt to gain representation within the Iranian Republic. Being frustrated with the lack of stable education system, as many fight for government jobs, Iran's youth feels frustrated in the corrupt system where many lose, very few win. They believe that with government reform and free, fair elections, they will be granted more opportunities in their country. Possible Causes Domestic Economic Issues: During the 1970s, the Iranian economy was booming with industrial growth. However, middle class workers felt disenfranchised by the rapidly growing technological world. This created animosity between those in the upper and middle classes. Swiftly, there became a push for orthodox economic and religious traditions in a growing progressive world. This disparity between the wealthy and the middle class was and continues to be a driving force in Iranian politics. A lack of a free and fair democratic system: After a 2,500 years under monarchical rule, the Iranian people are yearning to catch up to the rapidly democratizing world. Younger generations of Iranians are watching their peers in democratic countries through social media and are becoming more driven toward government

9 CJMUNC reform. This drive to join the rest of the world will be a key part in ensuring Iran has free and fair elections. International Isolation: The BARJAM, commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, was agreed to by the Iranian Parliament along side the P5+1 nations. This agreement lifted economically crushing sanctions from Iran in exchange for the disarmament of nuclear weapons. While most of the sanctions were lifted, Iran still holds a tarnished reputation on the global stage because of alleged funding of terrorists groups, numerous human rights violations, and a general anti-western sentiment. A strong democratic system and government reform could legitimize Iran as a democratic nation and expands its influence around the world. Projections and Implications With rise of the Arab Spring in the Middle East, a push for change in government has been widespread throughout the region. There are many outcomes to these revolutions and calls for change, revolutions in nations such as Tunisia, Bahrain, and Oman have brought about positive change. However, some can end up in turmoil like nations such as Yemen, Libya, and Syria. The stability and the power struggle in Iran will have major geopolitical implications for the Middle East, and has the ability to change the balance of power in the region. As the Iranian cabinet, it is your obligation to work together to resolve the crisis at hand. The decisions you make as the cabinet, will influence how the rest of the crisis will play out. The following are some examples of action you may need to take: Compromise with the protesters: Compromise with the protesters will lead to the possible destabilization of the strict moral code of Iran, which is enforced by the religious leaders. The clergy class within Iran holds a lot of power, and often enforces laws defining what is appropriate and moral as a means to consolidate power. Lack of Action: Just as dangerous as working with the protesters, is ignoring them. Simply attempting to contain protesters to certain parts of the country or lightly detaining leaders will not work by nature of the movement. Being decentralized and known for its use of social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, the Green movement has gained a reputation in evading censorship using divergent channels such as social media.

10 CJMUNC Goals for committee As members of the Cabinet of Iran, delegates are expected to effectively work to undermine the protesters while maintaining a faith in the Iranian government and Supreme Leader. They should explore potential compromises with the protesters and weigh these options against the use of political, economic, and military power to address the Green Movement. Finally, delegates must consider how the actions of the Cabinet will reflect on Iran and impact the country s influence, power, and legitimacy around the world and the role the youth involved in the movement may play. Committee Roles The Supreme Leader Representative The representative to the Ayatollah of Iran, Ali Khamenei. He assumed office on June 4, He was previously the President of Iran and is currently the second Supreme Leader, following Ruhollah Khomeini. He is the Commander in Chief of Iran s armed forces. The representative s job is to ensure that all of the Supreme Leader s interests are being voiced within the committee. President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani Iran s parliament holds ultimate authority of the nation to Iran, but the presidency itself has developed into a powerful position to hold. In particular, the president is the Head of State and thus has influence on foreign affairs. First Vice President of Iran Being part of the first revolutionist movement in 1979, Eshaq Jahangiri was elected the First President of Iran and thus has the power to communicate with vice president's below him and helps the President lead the cabinet. Minister of Intelligence Being charged with defending the Islamic Republic from defamation, the ministry often implements its department of disinformation. The abilities of the ministry are mostly contained within the nation as its counter-intelligence campaigns have been penetrated, rather the ministry has the ability to request data from any organization in Iran.

11 CJMUNC Minister of the Revolutionary Guards The position of Revolutionary Guard is by far the most entrusted job in ensuring the security of Iran. The Ayatollah and IRGC enjoy a symbiotic relationship as they play a large economic role within the nation, and in return are allowed jurisdiction in controlling the nation internally and externally through military means. Minister of Communication Being one of the oldest cabinet positions in the Republic of Iran, the ministry is charged with determining what is appropriate in ICT (Internet-Communication-Technology). Minister of Defense Being part of three sovereign institutions that dictate what the Armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the ministry advises the logistics of armed conflicts with aggressors internally and externally. Minister of Finance The functions of ministry of finance extend further than tax policy, and how money is printed. Instead, it has the unique power to advise the Ayatollah and the President on financial matters such as international sanctions, & often consults the minister of petroleum on predicted market rises and falls. Minister of Petroleum The number export in Iran is petroleum which accounts for more than ⅔ of the nation's wealth. With oil and petroleum having such an importance in Iran's economy, the minister must consider the changing geopolitical landscape that makes the barrel price of oil volatile. Minister of Foreign Affairs Being the oldest cabinet level position in the Islamic Republic of Iran, the ministry of foreign affairs hold great prestige as they represent Iran on the international stage. Minister of Justice Being the attorney-general or Iran s top lawyer, means that the minister of Justice is charged with processing and prosecuting government cases like corruption. Minister of Interior

12 CJMUNC The minister of interior has direct jurisdiction over policing within Iran, as well as the enumerated powers granted by Iran s constitution and the expansion of freedoms & practices within the republic's government. Minister of Energy Having purview over the nations water, electricity, and wastewater services might seem menial, but its jurisdiction of construction of nuclear power plants puts it in a unique position of power. Minister of Culture & Islamic Guidelines The ministry oversees the creation of films, books, and media to restrict access to any product that violates the ethics and values that were instituted by the Iranian revolution. Discussion Questions 1. As the Cabinet of Iran, should the government consider the Green Movement disruptive riots or a legitimate form of protest? 2. How can the Cabinet reduce the influence of the protesters and their ability to communicate their message? 3. How have the increasingly liberal, educated, secular youth of Iran contributed to the Green Movement?

13 CJMUNC How far can the Cabinet go in quelling protests and suppressing Green Movement leaders? 5. Have the protests revealed any problems within the Iranian government? How can the Cabinet work to resolve these issues? Bibliography Works Referenced: "Iran Nuclear Deal: Key Details". BBC News, 2018, Accessed 3 May "The Iranian Green Movement: A Promising Uprising To A Failed Revolution Regional Insights". Regional-Insights.Org, 2018, ailed-revolution. Accessed 3 May "Timeline Of Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran Arms Control Association". Armscontrol.Org, 2018,

14 CJMUNC Accessed 3 May "2009 Vs. 2018: How Iran S New Protests Compare To The Green Movement Of The Past The Star". Thestar.Com, 2018, -compare-to-the-green-movement-of-the-past.html. Accessed 3 May Dehghan, Saeed, and Ian Black. "Iran's Defiant Green Movement Vows To Fight On". The Guardian, 2018, Accessed 3 May Majd et al. "Think Again: Iran's Green Movement". Foreign Policy, 2018, Accessed 3 May Ritholtz, More. "Brexit Failure Looks More Likely Every Day". Bloomberg.Com, 2018, Accessed 3 May Pdfs.Semanticscholar.Org, 2018, Accessed 3 May "Leaders Of Iran's Green Movement At A Three Ways: Execution, Freedom, Or Indefinite Imprisonment". Huffpost, 2018, ml. Accessed 3 May 2018.