What Happens Next? Looking Backwards to See into the Future. MarkZinder.com
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2 What Happens Next? Looking Backwards to See into the Future
3 The Top 10 Money Managers of the 20th Century: 1.Warren Buffett 2.Peter Lynch 3.Sir John Templeton 4.Benjamin Graham 5.George Soros 6.John Neff 7.John Bogle 8.Michael Price 9.Julian Robertson 10. Dr. Mark Mobius
4 When everyone is saying the same thing, a different outcome is likely to occur - Sir John Templeton
5 Often early, rarely wrong.
6 EQUITIES Magazine
7 on the upside and downside, Sir John has been seriously wrong only once in 22 years. In early 1999, he was positive the overpriced US stock market would quickly crash, but he was a year early.
8 Does History Repeat Itself?
9 Does history repeat itself? Abraham Lincoln John F. Kennedy Johnson 1808 J. W. B. 35 Ford Theatre Johnson 1908 L. H. O. 35 Ford Lincoln
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11 Does history repeat itself? Ronald Reagan Donald Trump Ronald Time s Man of the Year Oldest elected: 69 First divorced President Tear down that wall! Campaign Slogan Donald Time s Person of the Year Oldest elected: 70 Second divorced President I m going to build a wall! Campaign Slogan
12 Does history repeat itself?
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14 Data Mining
15 Per Capita Cheese Consumption and The Number of People Who Die By Becoming Tangled In Their Bed Sheets
16 The Divorce Rate in Maine and Per Capita Consumption of Margarine
17 2011 Academy Awards INSIDE JOB Directed by: Charles Ferguson
18 Occupy Wall Street
19 Joseph Schumpeter Creative Destruction When you create something new you destroy something old!
20 Disruptive
21 Destructive
22 Disruptive
23 Destructive
24 Necessity is the Mother of Invention 1880 New York City 1898 The world s first international urban planning conference
25 They did the math
26 The biggest problems with my customers is they can only extrapolate the present. If I had asked my customers what they wanted from Ford Motor Company, they would have said a faster horse. -Henry Ford
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31 The Evolution of a Revolution The Industrial Revolution Railroad Revolution Electrification Mass Production Information Technology
32 The Evolution of a Revolution Idea Exotic Curiosity Early Adoption General Acceptance Frenzy Collapse Final Build-out It Becomes Invisible
33 Idea Aha moment This period can last for 25 to 50 years IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
34 Strike Zone
35 March of 1950 The Electronic Umpire
36 March of 1950 The Electronic Umpire
37 Exotic Curiosity The new technology achieves success in early demonstrations People are often frightened of the new technology IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
38 Early Adoption We go from what may be possible to what is possible New businesses are started based on the new idea IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
39 General Acceptance It s a technical free-for-all Government regulations are largely absent IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
40 Frenzy Successes mount The public starts to speculate The new technology becomes the engine of growth Wealth is being created IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
41 Collapse The stock market starts to fall Fortunes are lost IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
42 Final Build-out Jobs are lost The new technology is no longer a novelty Profits reflect the real return of the new technology IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
43 It Becomes Invisible The cycle is now complete IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
44 Railroads IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
45 Idea 1775 James Watt invents the steam engine 1813 George Stephenson invents the train IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
46 Exotic Curiosity 1829 L&M sponsored the Rainhill Trials contest IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
47 Early Adoption 1830 L&M purchases six trains IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
48 General Acceptance Instead of transporting coal, L&M begins to transport people IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
49 Frenzy Entrepreneurs emerge Wealth is created A more prosperous economy begins to develop 1843/44 The railroad mania was raging IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
50 Collapse 1845 Great Western Railway shares fall 40% 10/17/1847 An economic week of terror begins IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
51 Final Build-out Businesses adopt and adapt to the railroads Jobs are lost IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
52 It Becomes Invisible The cycle is now complete IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
53 Information Technology IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
54 Idea 1946 The ENIAC 100 feet long and 10 feet tall It weighs 30 tons It has the memory capacity of 12 words IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
55 Exotic Curiosity 1971 the microprocessor is invented IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
56 Early Adoption 1981 Microsoft DOS IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
57 General Acceptance 1982 The Commodore 64 IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
58 Frenzy The 90 s 1995 Toy Story, the first computer generated fulllength feature film IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
59 Collapse S&P falls 43% NASDAQ falls 78% Cisco falls 86% IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
60 Final Build-out Businesses adapt to the new technology Jobs are lost IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
61 It Becomes Invisible The cycle is now complete IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
62 Where are we in the computer revolution?
63 Is Technology Invisible?
64 Industrial Revolution Yrs. Railroad Yrs. Electrification Yrs. Mass Production Yrs. Microprocessor Yrs.
65 Industrial Electri- Mass Micro- Revolution Railroad fication Production processor
66 1899 Everything that can be invented, has been invented. Dr. Charles Duell, Director of U.S. Patent Office
67 LeftoverSwap
68 What Happens Next? What is the next revolution
69 What Happens Next? The Partial Repeal of Dodd-Frank
70 What Happens Next? Artificial Intelligence
71 What Happens Next? Biotech
72 What Happens Next? Graphene
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77 IBM has built a graphene chip that s 10,000 times faster than silicon
78 Graphene battery recharges in 4 minutes
79 Graphene where are we? IDEA EXOTIC CURIOSITY EARLY ADOPTION GENERAL ACCEPTANCE FRENZY COLLAPSE BUILD-OUT BECOMES INVISIBLE
80 What Happens Next? 3D Printing
81 World s First 3D Printed Gun
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88 SKYFALL Directed by Sam Mendes
89 Estimated Value: $4,600,000
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91 If they lost a car, they could simply print another one.
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96 What Happens Next?
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O Captain, My Captain!
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