Security Trends. Analysis. 30 th October to 29 th November

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1 Trends NCCI s Security Trends provides internal advice for NCCI members only and should not be forwarded outside your organization. If forwarded internally, care must be taken to ensure that it is not passed on to any third parties. Security Trends 30 th October to 29 th November [Type text]

2 The NCCI Security Trends is provided to member NGOs twice a month as an informational and advisory report on possible trends, threats and incidents based on information received from NGOs, the media, international organizations and official sources. Every reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this analysis. NCCI collates information from reliable sources. Where a source is in doubt, NCCI seeks to corroborate that information. There may be an occasion when some information is included and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This typically occurs with an emerging or developing situation when it is considered in the best interests of NCCI s member organisations to be made aware of any available information. We thank you in advance for NOT disseminating this document and ensuring that it is ONLY circulated between members within your organisation General information is available to members at the NCCI website Please do not hesitate to contact us at communication@ncciraq.org 2 NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

3 Table of Contents Renewed Kirkuk Tensions between Irbil and Baghdad.. 5 PYD control of North-East Syria affects IK Security.. 6 Islamic State of Iraq to Refocus Operations.. 7 New Election Law and Potential Destabilization. 8 Security Incidents in Basra Disrupt Oil Production. 9 Targeting of Religious Pilgrims NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

4 Map of Iraq and Governorates 4 NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

5 RENEWED KIRKUK TENSIONS BETWEEN IRBIL AND BAGHDAD Tensions have once again boiled to the surface as a result of the longstanding battle for influence and control of resources in the highly controversial region of Kirkuk. Disagreements this month between the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the Iraqi Government centered on the proposed exploitation of Kirkuk s rich northern oil fields. In early September, a contract was signed between the Iraqi Government and BP in order to allow the British oil firm to access significant reserves in return for addressing the significant decrease in oil output. The BP Chief Executive s visit to Kirkuk this month with the Iraqi Oil Minister, and their subsequent meeting with the Governor of Kirkuk was strongly criticized in Irbil 1. Photo taken by Reuters Despite the Governor of Kirkuk s endorsement of this deal, KRG believe it to be unconstitutional since they have allegedly not been consulted on any level prior to the contract being agreed upon 2. As a result of this Irbil has totally opposed the deal and has given warning that it refuses to provide any security or policing for BP, unless KRG is engaged as an equal partner. Some analysts suggest that this deal is a symptom of a substantial rift between Baghdad and Irbil surrounding the development of oil and gas pipelines in KR-I that will facilitate direct exportation through Turkey. The Iraqi Government appears worried that independent oil contracts will result in an independent Kurdistan 3. Relations may become increasingly strained between KRG and the Iraqi Government, with Turkey playing a key mediating role in forthcoming energy negotiations. Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution states that a referendum must be called in Kirkuk so that citizens can determine allegiance to Irbil or Baghdad. This will be an important part of any subsequent legal and political lobbying. Disputes are also likely between the leading Kurdish parties as a result of the BP oil deal being welcomed by the Kirkuk Governor and then subsequently opposed by leading officials in the KRG 4. Ethnic tensions on the ground may develop in line with political tensions NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

6 PYD CONTROL OF NORTH-EAST SYRIA BORDER REGION Early this month, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and a bloc of smaller Syrian Kurdish groups made an official announcement, declaring an autonomous government for Western Kurdistan in the Kurdish-dominated north-east region of Syria 5. The agreement proposed an 82-member parliamentary assembly and three local administrative councils. The PYD has claimed that the autonomous government is transitional and will only remain operational until the end of the Syrian civil war. The People s Protection Units (YPG), the armed wing of PYD, has retained control of Syria s key Kurdish areas. Intense fighting with militants in October enabled the capture the important Yarubiya border crossing to Iraq 6. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has provided support for the PYD to defend territory held in Kurdish areas of north-eastern Syria. However, Masoud Barzani dismissed the announcement made in Syria of an autonomous Kurdish government. He accused the PYD of disregarding the common Kurdish cause and acting too hurriedly without the support of all Kurdish factions 7. The KRG has been working to improve relations with Turkey and this is an unwanted inconvenience that threatens to take attention away from important energy agreements. PYD control of the Yarubiya border signifies potential Kurdish exportation of Syrian oil supplies, which are currently not being exploited due to the ongoing conflict. Photo taken by Fabio Bucciarelli AFP Developments regarding the PYD are unlikely to have an immediate impact upon the security situation in KRG because of Masoud Barzani s denouncement of the Syrian-Kurdish autonomous government. The KRG s previous support for Kurdish Syrian groups was cited as motivation for the Irbil bombings that took place in September, killing several people. The KRG s immediate priority will continue to be the development of energy relations with Turkey, who are wary of the intentions of the PYD. However further conflict in the north-east of Syria will be sure to force more refugees across the border into Iraqi Kurdistan. The situation is currently extremely tense, with accusations of the YPG targeting Arab villages NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

7 ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ TO REFOCUS OPERATIONS The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) this month defied demands made by Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al- Zawahiri to end its operations in Syria and allow the al-nusra Front to take control. Zawahiri demanded that ISIS refocuses its operations within the borders of Iraq and fulfill its mission there under its previous identity of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) 8. ISIS has instead seemingly rebelled against Al-Qaeda s leadership demands and continued their operations in Syria, where the group has been accused of committing inhumane atrocities, which this month included the mistaken beheading of one of ISIS s own commanders 9. Photo taken by Stringer/Reuters The ongoing competition for power amongst militant groups in Syria has revealed cracks in the leadership of al- Qaeda. However this does not appear to have affected the efficiency or devastation of the work of its affiliated groups in Iraq. Earlier this month, Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri Al-Maliki, warned that ISIS has been given a second chance to thrive in Iraq as a direct result of the ongoing al-qaeda presence in bordering Syria. The Director of the US National Counter-Terrorism Centre also claimed this month that ISIS is the strongest it has been in Iraq since 2006 because of its exploitation of increasingly permissive security environments in Iraq to fundraise, plan and train for attacks 10. Since April, more than 5,500 people have been killed in bombings and shootings in Iraq, according to the United Nations. ISIS s refusal to adhere to Zawahiri s may result in some disillusionment among militants aligned with the ideology of al-qaeda in Iraq. Some may reject fighting for a subordinate group that does not adhere to al-qaeda s central leadership direction. ISIS will over the coming weeks and months face new challenges in Iraq, which include renewed coordination and funding for Al-Sahwa forces in the al-anbar and Ninewa provinces, which border with neighboring Syria 11. However the civil war in Syria continues to provide a militant stronghold for the group, where it can plan and execute attacks inside Iraq s borders NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

8 NEW ELECTION LAW AND POTENTIAL DESTABILISATION On 4 th November, Iraqi lawmakers passed a new elections law that paves the way for full parliamentary elections on April 30 th The passing of this law follows months of debate and speculation about whether the ongoing deterioration of Iraq s security situation would cause longer-term postponement. Iraq has suffered from political instability ever since the withdrawal of US forces from the country in Analysts argue that this has been a major factor in renewed spikes in violence that have not been seen since 2008, when the country was on the brink of widespread civil war. US President Barack Obama has expressed his wishes that the elections will be free and fair so that people are able to resolve their differences through politics instead of violence 12. Photo published by Iraqi Embassy (US) website The parliamentary elections will be a critical test for Iraq, which last year was the fourth largest oil exporter in the world, according to OPEC. Political stability in Iraq is generally acknowledged as being a vital step towards achieving regional peace and security. Parliamentary speaker, Usama al-nujaifi, told media that the new law was produced by consensus, which makes it fair for all" 13. There had previously been disagreements between Arabs and ethnic Kurds about the potentially unfair relative provincial representations. Initial apprehensions about the 2014 elections were that it could turn into a sectarian battle between large Sunni and Shia blocs. However it now appears that strong intra-sectarian rivalries are emerging between fragmented alliances that will hopefully lead to election campaigns that are not based purely on sectarian loyalty and representation. Sectarian and ethnic rivalries will remain central to the elections and the preceding electoral campaigns, which are certain to aggravate already crippling tensions in the country. However the division of large coalitions formed on sectarian grounds is something encouraged by the new law, which reduces incentives for forming large political blocs 14. The hope is that small alliances will develop, based on shared political and not sectarian loyalties. The danger for political parties is that by doing this they may lose core voters, whose priority may be to ensure an increased representation for their community. The elections present a massive security risk for security forces NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

9 SECURITY INCIDENTS IN BASRA DISRUPT OIL PRODUCTION Hundreds of foreign oil workers were evacuated from Basra early this month following violent protests that were seemingly carried out by employees and local villagers. Baker Hughes and Schlumberger are both large foreign oil companies operating in Iraq and they subsequently suspended their operations in Basra amid perceived security instabilities that could threaten the wellbeing of their employees. Both protests happened on November 11 th and seem to have been religiously incited. A British Security Officer was physically assaulted because he pulled down banners and flags marking the Shiite religious occasion of Ashura. In a second incident an Egyptian worker removed flags commemorating Imam Hussein and Imam Ali from company vehicles 15. Photo taken by Ismail Zitouny - Reuters Foreign oil companies that have invested in Iraq have generally avoided any unwanted security threats and intimidation, which could be considered surprising given the fact that around 1000 civilians are being killed each month. However, suicide attacks, bombings and shootings are predominantly carried out in cities and towns in the center or northern regions of Iraq, whereas the oil companies are working in oil fields located in the south. Foreign workers are afforded excellent security and protective measures and move around in armed convoys. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-maliki called for the immediate deportation of the British worker involved in the first of the incidents, which could be a preventative measure or alternatively reflect his role in provoking the incident. The Egyptian worker involved in the second incident was charged with insults made to religion 16. These appear to be isolated security incidents that were aggravated by the fact that they coincided with the Shiite religious festival of Ashura. Baker Hughes is expected to resume its operations over the coming weeks, following reassurances from Iraqi authorities that security will be stepped up to ensure the safety of its employees 17. Upon the deployment of extra security forces and a situation that gradually calms down, many employees of the two oil firms are likely to return to work in Basra. However it is important for Iraq that incidents such as this do not become more regular. The danger is that it will deter foreign oil companies from future operations in Iraq NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

10 TARGETING OF RELIGIOUS PILGRIMS November 14 th marked the spiritual occasion of Ashura, a day where Shiite worshipers commemorate the death of a key religious figure in Shiite Islam. Millions of pilgrims from Iraq and around the world took part in Ashura and approximately two million people made the pilgrimage to the Iraqi city of Karbala. However this occasion of religious mourning was met with violent outbreaks of bombings in the Diyala, Wassit and Kirkuk governorates, which killed a total of 44 people. This was despite massive security operations that for the previous two years had protected the pilgrims from any major incidents. The most deadly attack at this month s Ashura was by a suicide bomber disguised in a police uniform who struck a Shiite area of Diyala, killing 32 people and wounding Photo taken by Metrography Shiites are frequently targeted during Ashura. In 2004, al-qaeda killed 178 and injured over 500 civilians in a series of consecutive bombings with the additional use of arms, including mortars, grenades and rocket launchers. The absence of specific claims of responsibility by militant groups this month has led to fingers being pointed at al-qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) 19. The events could have been a direct prompt for Prime Minister Nouri al-maliki to appeal to the United States for intelligence sharing and additional weapons supplies. The attacks were disappointing given the fact that more than 35,000 Iraqi soldiers and police were deployed in Karbala and its surrounding areas in an attempt to uphold security for pilgrims 20. Following the Ashura bombings there was an upsurge in sectarian violence, including increased targeting of tribal leaders, Sunni mosque Imams and regular civilians. Sunni mosques closed for several days in condemnation of the deaths of the Sunni Imams. The series of attacks that took place reflect the continuing sectarian tensions that are crippling Iraq s security. The Ashura bombings are expected to cause further strains that could culminate in more reprisal attacks carried out by Shia militant groups. Al-Qaeda and ISIS have escalated their campaigns of violence in Iraq in order to thwart the Shiite-led government s efforts to uphold security. The regularity and successfulness of their attacks is expected to continue in the short term, maintaining the current pace of killing that is the most prolific since NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization