Security Trends. Analysis. 30 th November to 29 th December

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1 Trends NCCI s Security Trends provides internal advice for NCCI members only and should not be forwarded outside your organization. If forwarded internally, care must be taken to ensure that it is not passed on to any third parties. Security Trends 30 th November to 29 th December [Type text]

2 The NCCI Security Trends is provided to member NGOs once a month as an informational and advisory report on possible trends, threats and incidents based on information received from NGOs, the media, NCCI focal points, international organizations and official sources. Every reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this analysis. NCCI collates information from reliable sources. Where a source is in doubt, NCCI seeks to corroborate that information. There may be an occasion when some information is included and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This typically occurs with an emerging or developing situation when it is considered in the best interests of NCCI s member organisations to be made aware of any available information. We thank you in advance for NOT disseminating this document and ensuring that it is ONLY circulated between members within your organisation General information is available to members at the NCCI website Please do not hesitate to contact us at communication@ncciraq.org 2 NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

3 Table of Contents Increasing Tourism to Erbil Poses New Security Risks... 5 Kurds Recruited by Islamic Militant Groups in Syria... 6 Increased Targeting of Journalists in Iraq... 7 Continued Targeting of Shia Pilgrims. 8 Tensions in Anbar Threaten to Spiral Out of Control... 9 Executions and Access to Security Force Supplies NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

4 Map of Iraq and Governorates 4 NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

5 INCREASING TOURISM TO ERBIL POSES SECURITY RISKS Erbil s tourism has boomed over recent years due to outside views upon the city as a safe haven from national and regional violence. The city is home to world-class hotels, designer shops, up-market residential complexes and increasing investment from international tourism companies. In May, Erbil was named the 2014 Tourism Capital by the Arab Council of Tourism, a title that promises increased worldwide publicity for this developing holiday destination. With large numbers of visitors from outside Iraqi Kurdistan (IKR), the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) must face up to this security challenge, whilst at the same time ensuring that human rights are equally protected for all ethnicities and nationalities, including Arabs and its spiraling refugee population. Photo taken by Agence France-Presse The September attacks on the Asayish security service headquarters in Erbil has meant that the KRG has had to deploy tighter security measures, which have especially affected Arabs travelling to IKR from other regions of Iraq 1. Cars and luggage are subject to intensive inspection upon entry to IKR. Arab visitors also require a sponsor and men can only enter IKR if accompanied by family. Residency cards have to be renewed regularly and strict security checks are implemented. Such security constraints have detrimentally affected tourism since the Erbil bombings and a further attack would trigger additional border security measures that would act to further constrict the growing tourism ambitions of the KRG 2. Economically, the IKR is reliant upon Iraqi Arab investments and commercial spending. However increasing threats to domestic security from militant groups based outside of its borders has led to accusations of strategic profiling of individuals wishing to enter IKR 3. Security measures, if targeted disproportionately towards certain ethnicities, have the potential to further catalyze the tensions that have been already been stirred due regional unrest and an increasingly unstable situation for Kurds in neighboring Syria and Turkey. The apparent opportunity that 2014 presents to expand the booming economy by increasing tourism could quickly become a curse if security mechanisms fail to prevent a similar attack to that which occurred in Erbil in September NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

6 KURDS RECRUITED BY ISLAMIC MILITANT GROUPS IN SYRIA At the end of November, Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani initiated the formation of a committee to investigate the recruitment and training of young people in Iraqi Kurdistan (IKR) by Islamic militant groups operating in Syria. As the civil war in Syria has unfolded, there have been an increasing number of reports of citizens from IKR fighting on behalf of groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Jabhat al-nusra 4. According to KRG s intelligence services, more than 300 individuals from IKR and Kirkuk have entered Syria to train with ISIS. This month KRG security forces took firm counter measures by raiding mosques in Sulaimaneyah, which has long been a Kurdish Islamic stronghold within IKR 5. Photo taken by Marwan Ibrahim - Agence France-Presse The willingness of local citizens to join the ranks of ISIS and other militant groups threatens to drag KRG into the Syrian conflict and detrimentally affect security of people within IKR. The coordinated attacks early this month on the Police intelligence headquarters and a nearby shopping mall in Kirkuk are warning signs of increased militant activity by internal recruits. Following the Kirkuk attacks a militant website posted a photo of one of the attackers, a Kurdish boy recruited from Sulaimaneyah 6. Al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups do not seemingly distinguish between the different Kurdish political groups of Iraq, Syria and Turkey and consider them all to form a combined regional threat, despite ongoing disagreements between them. The KRG will respond to this developing threat to its internal security by continuing to instruct local Kurdish religious figures to educate their congregations about the abuse of Islam for political means and the threat this poses for the Kurdish people. They will also uphold the ban on funerals for Kurdish jihadists killed in Syria and whose families wish to hold a local funeral in IKR. The difficulty for border police will be that the young Kurds travelling to Syria may have no previous connections with extremist groups but when they return to IKR they are trained militants. Military strongholds and continued fighting between ISIS and Kurdish groups in Syria increase the likelihood of further attacks within the borders of IKR, despite increased security measures NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

7 INCREASED TARGETING OF JOURNALISTS IN IRAQ Iraq is currently experiencing its worst period of violence against journalists and media employees in years. The government has been repeatedly criticized for the number of unsolved killings of journalists and lack of media freedom 7. A total of 12 journalists have now been killed in Iraq since October, which includes an attack this month on the Salaheddin television station s headquarters by four suicide bombers. The coordinated attack was subsequently claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and resulted in the death of 5 of the satellite channel s journalists. Mosul in particular has become dangerous territory for media workers. Attacks in this city include the assassination this month of TV presenter Nawras al-nuaimi and 5 others since October 8. Photo taken by Patrick Baz/Agence France-Presse The attacks carried out this month on journalists in Iraq have been met by strong condemnation from the international community. United Nations envoy Nickolay Mladenov urged that such attacks be fully investigated. He also called for additional preventative measures to be deployed by the Iraqi government to prevent similar attacks from being carried out in the future. Reporters Without Borders expressed strong criticism towards the authorities for not already stepping up security measures to protect media workers from this ongoing security threat from regional militant groups 9. ISIS, who was seemingly behind the Salaheddin satellite channel attacks, has also claimed responsibility for similar attacks in Syria. There are worrying signs that attacks this month may form part of a regional strategy by the ISIS and other potentially connected militant groups to target journalists and other media employees. The Iraqi security authorities will continue to face increasing pressure from the international community. This may be relieved if they respond by deploying more effective security measures to protect journalists and if they are able to bring the militants responsible to justice. Security authorities will also face rising pressure in the face of accusations of threats and constrictions upon the free reporting by Iraqi journalists. The effectiveness of new security measures will decide the likelihood of further attacks against Iraq s journalists over the coming weeks NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

8 CONTINUED TARGETING OF SHIA PILGRIMS Arbaeen is a religious occasion, which for Shia Muslims marks the end to a 40-day mourning period for Imam Hussein Bin Ali s death. This holy day attracts millions of Shiites from across the globe to gather in Karbala. During Saddam Hussein s rule, the observance of Arbaeen was prohibited. However following his deposition, the final day of this religious occasion has consistently provided one of the largest gatherings of people in the world. Arbaeen has over recent years been the target of attacks by militant groups. This year was no different as December witnessed tremendous bloodshed. One attack carried out by militants on December 19 th targeted the road in which the pilgrims were marching, killing a total of 34 people and injuring Photo taken by Agence France-Presse There were warning signs last month that another Shiite religious occasion would provide an irresistible target for extremist militant groups to bring about further bloodshed. Last month s Ashura festival was met with violent outbreaks of bombings in the Diyala, Wassit and Kirkuk governorates, which killed a total of 44 people 11. This was despite massive security operations organized by the Iraqi authorities. Similarly strict security measures this month were unable to prevent militants from successfully executing a series of attacks that caused devastation for the Shiite pilgrims. This was despite the fact that upholding a high level of security was viewed to be extremely important for Prime Minister Nouri al-maliki in the run up to elections in April. The final day of Arbaeen did pass without incident as tens of thousands of Iraqi police officers guarded the pilgrims as they entered Karbala 12. No official link has been made by Government officials but the string of attacks against Shia pilgrims this month has coincided with aggressive Iraqi military operations against militant groups operating out of Anbar province. Reprisal attacks by Shia militias are likely given the immense bloodshed that was witnessed during Arbaeen. The war in neighboring Syria has ignited already tense sectarian differences in Iraq, which are being further ignited in the run up to Iraqi parliamentary elections. Militant groups have developed strongholds in Syria that will continue to pose an active base from which to plan and execute coordinated attacks within Iraq NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

9 TENSIONS IN ANBAR THREATEN TO SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL Military groups have continued with intensive operations this month in Anbar province, targeting security forces and other officials. Attacks appear to be increasingly well-planned and strategic. 18 soldiers from the Iraqi army, including several high-ranking officers, were killed during an operation that targeted militant groups in Anbar. 32 other soldiers were also wounded in the attack, which sparked off a large-scale 24-hour a day military offensive by security forces 13. Since then the Iraqi Defense Minister s convoy was attacked on its way to Ramadi, which led security forces to close the border between Iraq and Syria 14. Anti-government protests have compounded security complications in Anbar and have been condemned by Nouri al-maliki for harboring members of al-qaeda. Photo taken by AIN The targeting of security officials by Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant groups appears to form part of a long-term strategy that has been deployed in order to deter people from working for the police and military. The strategy has led to many officers leaving the security forces amid fears that they or their family will be targeted by militants. This resulted in the weakening of security mechanisms, which allowed for more devastating militant operations to be executed without adequate resources to prevent them. Government officials have blamed the conflict in Syria for the flourishing militant camps that have this month been raided in bordering Anbar. The government has also linked extremist militant groups to the protests in Anbar, which were violently broken up by security forces. This seemingly heavy-handed response led to the resignation of 44 members of parliament 15. Alleged heavy-handed reactions by the Iraqi government and its security forces to protests in Anbar may catalyze the deteriorating security situation, which has the potential to spiral completely out of control. The controversial arrest of Sunni Member of Parliament Ahmed al-alwani under terrorism charges has not helped the issue. Retaliation attacks are expected over the coming days by militant groups, who continue to thrive in Anbar due to the difficulties that security forces have faced in securing the border with Syria. Key Sunni figures are likely to withdraw from the political process over the coming days, as tribal leaders call for a collective resistance NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization

10 EXECUTIONS AND ACCESS TO SECURITY FORCE SUPPLIES The security situation in Baghdad and its surrounding provinces has worsened this month with seemingly almost daily attacks carried out by militants in public gathering places such as restaurants, markets and cafes. There has also been a growing insurgent campaign of gun and bomb attacks that have specifically targeted security forces and other officials. This month has furthermore been characterized by a rise in execution style killings that has not been witnessed since In one incident, police discovered the bodies of 18 men who were kidnapped from their homes and shot in the head in a town nearby to Baghdad. Another incident saw 13 people, including a police officer and army official, executed and their bodies disposed of in different areas of Baghdad. According to police sources, abductors have access to police and military uniforms 16. Photo taken by Ibrahim Jassam - Reuters At least 41 bodies were retrieved by the Iraqi Police within a week, according to Reuters. 17 The bodies were found to be decapitated or had a bullet within the head. This could be a further sign that Iraq is close to returning to a state of civil war unseen since 2007 when so called sectarian death squads mostly moved freely and undetected. A video released online shows how Al-Qaeda-affiliated militants have previously crossed checkpoints and issued orders in the name of military forces 18. If militants still have access to equipment, vehicles and clothes resembling those of SWAT and government forces then it is unsurprising to read reports this month of kidnappers disguised in police and military uniforms. The goal of such attacks by militant groups has historically been to break public trust in the security forces and weaken their ability to prevent future militant operations. Silent operations such as abductions and private executions are likely to increase if militants are able to access equipment resembling those of security force personnel. Strict instructions issued by the government to prevent this from happening appear to have been unsuccessful. The government needs to take effective security measures and relieve widespread aggravation due to Sunni political underrepresentation and demands not being listened to. Political leaders need to work together on security in the run up to elections or the situation promises to worsen NCCI We thank you for not disseminating this document and ensuring that it is only circulated between members within your organization