Analysis and Evaluation on the Risks of the Construction Project

Transcription

1 Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No. Aprl 009 Analyss and Ealuaton on the Rsks of the Constructon Proect ANALYSES ET ÉVALUATION SUR LES RIQUES DU PROJET DE CONSTRUCTION HU Xnfu Abstract: The thess, startn from the characterstcs of the constructon proect, deploys the combnn method of normate and emprcal research. Accordn to nterated Rsk Manaement Paradm, the thess sums up the oerall frameork of the constructon proect system and proposes the ealuaton ndex system of the rsk analyss based on the Analytc Herarchy Process. In addton, the paper puts forard a comprehense rsk ealuaton model and makes clear the relate mportance of arous rsk factors. By so don, t prodes some thouhts for the constructon proects manaement and ealuaton. Key ords: Constructon Proect; Rsk Manaement; Rsk Ealuaton; Analytc Herarchy Process Résumé: A partr des caractérstques du proet de constructon, cette thèse utlse la méthode de combnason de recherches normates et de recherches emprques. Selon le Paradme de manaement de rsques, cette thèse résume le cadre lobal du système de proet de constructon et propose le système d ndexaton de l éaluaton des analyses des rques, basé sur le Processus hérarchque analytque. En plus, cet artcle met en aant un modèle d éaluaton de rsques lobaux et clarfe l mportance relate des dfférents facteurs de rsque. En assant de la sorte, l fournt quelques dées concernant la eston et l éaluaton des proet de constructon. Mots-Clés: Proet de constructon; Geston des rsques; éaluaton des rsques; Processus hérarchque analytque. RESEARCH AT HOME AND ABROAD Proect rsk manaement s an ndspensable part of proect manaement. As the ne Economcs and Manaement Scence hch has ust emered durn the past 0 years, proect rsk manaement s based School of Manaement Wuhan Unersty of Technoloy, Wuhan, Hube,0070, Chna. Schuan Collee of Archtecture Technoloy, Deyan, Schuan, 68000) *Receed 5 February 009; accepted 5 March 009

2 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No on economcs, manaement scence, behaoral scence, operatons research, probablty and statstcs, computer scence, system theory, control theory, nformaton theory and other dscplnes, as ell as modern enneern technoloes. It also takes nto account the partcular condtons of modern constructon proects and hh-tech deelopment proects, thus becomn a ne frne scence of Economcs and Manaement Scence. In terms of the publshed books and papers, the Brtsh scholar J R Turner deoted a chapter n hs book The Handbook of Proect-based Manaement to the proect rsk manaement. The most representate ournal s Butterorth-Henemann Ltd s Internatonal Journal of Proect Manaement from the Unted Kndom. And t often publshes proect rsk manaement artcles. Other maaznes that often run artcles on proect rsks are: Brtan's Proect Apprasal, Amerca s Journal of Rsk and Uncertanty, Rsk Analyss, The Enneern Economst and so on, and also other related maaznes such as Insurance: Mathematcs and Economcs, Decson Scences, Manaement Scence, Econometrcs, etc. The artcles manly focus on the techncal deelopment and mproement of the theoretcal system, hle some are applcaton reports and feedbacks. In terms of softare deelopment and applcaton, the softare that has been deeloped are "Analytcal Poer Tools" deeloped by Palsade Corporaton n the Unted States, the Unted Kndom s "Rsk-Net" softare, Noray s "Dyn-Rsk" softare, and Fnland s " Rskman "softare. In Western ndustralzed countres, the proect rsk manaement s releant n many felds, rann from natonal defense, aerospace and constructon to medcne, chemcal ndustry, mnn, ol and other areas. In today's orld, lare-scale proects, thout excepton, apply proect rsk manaement. Accordn to aalable statstcs, the Unted States Washnton metro, subay proects n London, Hon Kon and Snapore all hae adopted the rsk manaement technques to ensure the success of the proect. Research on rsk manaement n Chna starts from decson-makn concernn proect rsks. And e hae a late start. Ths s because Chna had practced the hhly centralzed planned economy for a lon tme before Chna's reform and openn up. Under the planned economy, the state as the only nestment body, and controlled prces of ra materals. Enterprses ere not for proft and rsks ere borne by the state. Therefore, n a ery lon tme, the constructon proects of our country dd not hae rsk manaement and e ere ay laed behnd the deeloped countres. When Chna ntroduced proect manaement theory and methods at the end of the 70s, early 80s, e only ntroduced proect manaement's basc theores, methods and procedures, not rsk manaement. "Rsk" as rased for the frst tme n 980 by Zhou Shfu. From 987 to 996, at the natonal key scentfc and technolocal proect, "Maor scentfc and technolocal research of the Three Gores proect", sponsored by the Natonal Scence and Technoloy Commsson, the Three Gores Proect rsk research as adopted and as the frst rsk analyss and ealuaton of lare-scale proect. So far, hoeer, the maorty of our research s about a partcular rsk, manly focusn on proect proress and cost control. In terms of softare deelopment and applcaton, unerstes manaement collees, collees of computn technoloy, Menlon Scence and Technoloy Co., Ltd. n Ben, and Tonzhou computer Co., Ltd. (Sno-Japanese ont enture) n Dalan hae all deeloped some softare concernn the proress of proect manaement, but they manly use plan coordnaton technque and ther research s not tareted at proect rsks. Proect rsk analyss has been adopted n proects n Chna, such as the Three Gores Proect, the Shanha subay constructon proect, and Daya Bay Nuclear Poer Plant proect. From the aboe summary of domestc and foren research, e can conclude that: as for the proect rsk manaement, n terms of theoretcal research and practcal applcatons, Chna stll has a lon ay to o to catch up th the Western deeloped countres. We are stll n the ntroducton, absorpton and deston stae. In order to narro the ap th other countres as soon as possble and stre to make breakthrouhs and nnoaton, e should make full use of modern manaement technques, mproe the leel of enterprse rsk manaement, and learn the adanced practces and experence of deeloped countres. At the same tme, t s necessary to consder Chna's natonal condtons, set up releant systems, standards and procedures for rsk manaement, so as to nterate the three benchmarks of proect manaement, namely "cost, qualty and proress", and form a scentfc and standardzed rsk manaement system. 6

3 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT RISKS Characterstcs of the proect rsks are determned by the nature of the proects. Compared th the producton process of other products, constructon proects hae ther unque features. Therefore, t s necessary to elaborate on and analyss the characterstcs of constructon proects.. Characterstcs of Constructon Proects In eneral, the constructon proect s man features are: ) constructon proect nole hue rsks hch are olatle and complex; ) rsks affect not part of the proect or only for a perod of tme, but hae a oerall effect; ) the partes noled n constructon proects all hae rsks, but ther rsks are not the same and ther ablty to thstand rsks dffers; ) constructon proects hae a fxed structure, but constructon process s flexble; 5) proects only produce one property at a tme, but the proect types are arous; 6) the constructon teams are often temporarly noled n the proect and ther recrutment s open to the hole socety; 7) on the constructon ste, the proect s co-ordnaton, command and superson are complcated. In the constructon process, there are many unpredctable factors, so the constructon proect s a hh-rsk process. The sources of proect rsks are complex and the rsk patterns are dffcult to rasp. The enaement status of key partes of the constructon proects s shon n Table. Table. The enaement status of key partes of the constructon proects Inoled partes Feasblty study Desn Constructon Fnal acceptance of constructon Constructon unt & Desn unt & Contractors & Subcontractor & Superson unts & Materals supplers Notes: key partes; &noled partes; not noled partes. Characterstcs of the Constructon Proect Rsks The nature of constructon proects determnes the rsk characterstcs as follos: Wde rsk sources. Constructon proect rsks not only come from the external natural condtons (such as: fres, floods, typhoons), the socal enronment (such as: the economy, poltcs, las and reulatons), as ell as the proect s technques, manaement leel, and the qualty of personnel, etc. The rsk s lon-term hdden effects. It takes tme or some staes for certan constructon 7

4 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No proects rsks to nflct losses. For example, the rsk of desn errors may only be reealed at the fnal acceptance stae of een after ben put nto use. The rsks chane from tme to tme. The rsks of constructon proects are not statc, but rather chane th the passae of tme or the dfferent constructon staes. the arablty of proect rsks are manly reflected n the chanes of the nature of rsk, the consequences, the emerence of ne rsks and the dmnshn of rsk factors. Therefore, n the actual operaton of constructon proects, there should be real-tme montorn of rsk chanes and an effecte early arnn system should be set up. Serous consequences. When constructon proects rsk ncurs losses, the losses are often seere. In addton, t may ndrectly affect the soco-economc deelopment, natural enronment, as ell as people's les, etc. The complexty of rsk manaement technques. Durn the constructon proect rsk manaement, the rsk manaers should not only hae a deep understandn of the constructon proect tself, are famlar th rsk manaement theory and methods, but also hae knolede concernn economcs, polces, la, fnance, or een math, computer scence, etc.. THE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR RISKS IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS Generally speakn, rsk manaement ncludes fe components, namely, rsk analyss, formulaton of rsk manaement and crcumenton stratees, rsk control, rsk pre-arnn and ealuaton of the rsk control results. Amon the fe, rsk analyss s the bass of rsk control and conssts of three components: rsk factor dentfcaton, rsk estmaton and rsk ealuaton. These components o throuh the hole process of the constructon proects, consttutn a crcular structure. Horzontally, rsk manaement of constructon proects can be dded nto four mportant aspects: cost rsk manaement, proect schedule rsk manaement, qualty rsk manaement and safety rsk manaement. Vertcally, t can be dded accordn to the dfferent staes the proect s n, hch nclude rsk manaement n the proect ntaton stae, the feasblty study stae, the desnn stae, the constructon stae and completon and utlzaton stae. Therefore, accordn to characterstcs of constructon proects and components of rsk manaement, hch are analyzed n the preous pararaphs, the rsk manaement process of constructon proects can be shon n raph. Symbols n the raph represent the follon terms respectely: I rsk dentfcaton,; E rsk estmaton; A rsk ealuaton; S formulaton of crcumenton stratees; C rsk control; W rsk pre-arnn; R ealuaton of the rsk control results; TRM schedule rsk manaement; CRM cost rsk manaement; QRM qualty rsk manaement; SRM safety rsk manaement. In raph, the four small crcles represent the four mportant aspects of rsk manaement of constructon proects: cost, schedule, qualty and safety. Each of the small crcles,.e. each mportant aspect of rsk manaement conssts of seen steps: rsk factor dentfcaton, rsk estmaton, rsk ealuaton, formulaton of rsk manaement and crcumenton stratees, rsk control, rsk pre-arnn and ealuaton of the rsk control results. In addton, the four mportant aspects are also nterrelated. The outer crcle shos the perodc nature of the rsk manaement of the constructon proects, ndcatn that the rsk manaement s contnuous throuhout the lfe cycle of the constructon proects. Eery stae ncludes some or all components of the four mportant aspects. The components and mantude of the rsks n the next stae, to some extent, depend on the manaement and control of ths stae. 8

5 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No R I E R I E W TRM A W CRM M A C S C S I R E R I E W QRM A W SRM A C S C S Graph. Rsk Manaement Process for Constructon Proects. EVALUATION OF AHP IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT RISKS. Basc Contents of AHP Analytc Herarchy Process (AHP), hch s dely appled n constructon, s a rsk estmaton method that combnes qualtate analyss and quanttate analyss. It dentfes the maor rsk factors n the taret proect by ay of a herarchy structure. Experts then decde the relate mportance of the rsk factors n the perspecte of the amount of loss the rsk may cause and the rsk s probablty of occurrence. On such bass, the experts ll run a consstency check on the matrx. If the check s passed, the experts ll calculate the relate mportance of each rsk factor and sequence all the factors accordnly. If not, they ll repeat the aboe-mentoned procedure and rese ther opnon untl the check s passed.. Features of AHP The features of AHP nclude: () loss expectaton and estmaton are manly based on the experts subecte udment; () the results of rsk ealuaton are ndcated by the relate mportance of factors n the proect s rsk factors system, so absolute ndexes such as the amount of loss arous rsks may cause and the rsk occurrence probablty can not be reached. 9

6 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No Ealuaton of the Herarchy Analyss Method Table. Ealuatn enneern chane rsks a ndex system Rsk factors(, K, ) Sub-rsk factors( p, K, p ) Ealuatn Methods ( ) eolocal condtons of the Operaton rsk Fnancal rsk Stratec rsk Manaement rsk constructon ste and foundaton condtons ()supply of materals ()supply of equpments ()enneern chane (5)techncal standards (6)desnn and constructon ()chanes n exchane rate ()chane n nterest rate ()collateral ()labltes (5)tax (6)nflaton ()stratec enronment ()stratec resources ()enterprse competteness ()enterprse leadershp (5)stratec poston ()competence of the desner ()competence of the constructor ()competence of the contractor ()competence of the supersor (5)competence of the propretor ( 6 ) competence of the personnel n oernment functonal bodes Experts estmates Experts estmates Experts estmates Experts estmates.. Buldn the Judment Matrx In order to compare the mportance of each rsk factor, four ealuaton standards are selected, namely, operaton rsk, fnancal rsk, stratec rsk and manaement rsk. 0

7 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No Assume that the real rsks for the four ealuaton standards are and respectely. Compare the four ndexes to by to; you ll reach the results n the table belo: Table. Results of the Parse Comparsons beteen the Four Indexes Importance of the rsk a a a a A = = a a a a a a a a a a a a.. Calculatn the Relate Importance Ths step s to obtan the maxmum latent root and the correspondn eenector of the matrx. An approxmate soluton s employed to obtan the root. The procedure s as follos: st. Follon the ros n the matrx, μ = n a ( =,,,) nd. Normalze ector μ = ( μ, μ, μ, μ ) T, eenector = (,,, ) T.e. = μ e.. A = n = u ( =,,,) μ = = s then obtaned,

8 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No Consstency Check λ = n s true. Accordn to AHP, to check the Only hen matrx A s fully consstent, equaton max consstency (compatblty) of the udment matrx, the dfference beteen the test. The consstency ndex s defned as follos: λmax n CI = n, λ max can be obtaned throuh the equaton belo: ( ) λ max = AW n In the aboe example: AW = λ max = =.7 = λ max and n can be used for CI =.7 =0.09 Obously, the udment error ncreases th n, that s hy the nfluence of n needs to be consdered CI hen conductn the consstency check. A consstent random rato CR = s ntroduced th RI RI ben the aerae random consstency ndex. Table shos aerae of 500 samples. Table. The Aerae Random Consstency Index order RI When CR <0., the consstency of the udment matrx s acceptable. In the aboe example, CR = 0.09 =0.0<0.,hch proes the consstency of the udment 0.90

9 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No matrx. The obtaned eenector s representate of the preference and relate mportance of the rsk factors... Calculatn the Comprehense Rsk Importance After ann the relate mportance of the factors at the same leel, the comprehense mportance of factors at each leel relate to the total can be calculated follon a top-don order. In the aboe example, there are four factors,,, on leel, th ther relate mportance ben,,,. On the next leel there are chld nodes from p to p, ther mportance relate to ben (obtaned n the same ay as ), then the comprehense mportance of factor p on the leel p s: W = Table 5 shos the calculaton process: Table 5. Comprehense Importance of the Rsks n Constructon Proects W p p L L L L L L p L W = W = W = Throuh comparn the alue of W, an order of the sub-rsks rsk mportance can be obtaned. The ber W s, the hher deree of rsk s contaned n the correspondn rsk factor. 5. CONCLUSION The characterstcs of constructon proects determne that rsks n constructon nole factors of all aspects. To ensure smooth completon and cost-effcency of the proects, effecte rsk manaement s necessary. As a key step n rsk manaement, rsk ealuaton should be pad th suffcent attenton. The rapd deelopment of modern mathematcs and computer technoloy equp the rsk studes of constructon proects a reat number of ealuaton methods, hch, n addton to AHP, nclude fuzzy mathematcs method, rey correlaton analyss method, Proram Ealuaton and Ree

10 HU Xnfu Canadan Socal Scence Vol.5 No Technque( PERT) and Monte Carlo method. The studes on rsk dentfcaton and ealuaton methods can prode decson-makn support to proect manaers and help them to conscously control, reduce and shft rsk so as to mnmze the loss caused by the rsks. REFERENCES Moore, P. G.. (997). The Busness of Rsk. Cambrde: Cambrde Unersty. Mottershead N, Taylor R & Marsh P.. (00). Manan rsk to protect and ro shareholder alue. 00 Rsk Manaement Gude. Ernst & Youn. Nadn, Yan. & Mrus R.. (00). A study on enterprse nterated rsk manaement. Industral Enneern and Manaement, 7 (5),-5. Ncos S.. (000). Interated rsk manaement. The Journal of Rsk and Insurance, 67, 6 7. Shouyu, C.. (99). System Fuzzy Decson Theory and ts Applcaton.Dalan: Dalan Unersty of Technoloy Press. Wanhua, Q.. (00). Modern Rsk Manaement: Methods and Practce. Ben: Scence Press. Youe, L, & Jey, L.. (998). Proect Rsk Manaement. Ben: Tsnhua Unersty Press.