AFTER BIN LADEN: WHAT NEXT FOR AL-QAEDA? PAGE 7-10 >>

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1 Issue 33 May IN THIS ISSUE IN-DEPTH This month s edition takes an indepth view of Al- Qaeda following the death of Osama bin Laden >> Page 7-10, and Islamist terrorism in Indonesia >> Page DISCLOSURE The latest threat warnings from official sources around the world. >> Page 5 CONTENTS WORLD NEWS IN BRIEF A roundup of key terrorism related events from around the world >> Page 2 NEWS IN FOCUS This month we look at an attack against Westerners in Marrakesh >> Page 3 the Taliban s spring offensive in Afghanistan >> Page 4 counter-terrorism raids in Turkey and Germany >> Page 6 and kidnapped French hostages in the Sahel >> Page 11 ATTACKS BY SECTOR A breakdown of terrorism attacks that affected business sectors across the world in April. >> Page AFTER BIN LADEN: WHAT NEXT FOR AL-QAEDA? PAGE 7-10 >> UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED, ALL IMAGES LICENSED FROM PA IMAGES

2 WORLD NEWS IN BRIEF Issue 33 May EUROPE In the deadliest act of suspected terrorism in Belarus since the end of the Cold War, 13 people died and over 200 others were injured when a bomb exploded in Minsk s busiest metro station on 11 April. The bombers left a device packed with nails on a platform during rush hour and detonated it remotely. Police arrested five suspects but the motive for the attack remains unclear. Police in France arrested seven suspected Islamist terrorists in a series of raids in Paris and its suburbs on 10 May. The raids were part of an investigation into an network sending French nationals to fight in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Officials believe some had recently returned from Pakistan s tribal region but said there was no evidence to suggest they had planned attacks. AFRICA Boko Haram, currently the most active terrorist group in Nigeria, rejected an amnesty proposal from the governor-elect of Borno state on 9 May. The radical Islamist group, which mounts near daily attacks in the country s northeast, rejected the offer as it does not believe in democracy only the laws of Allah. The group carried out a series of bombings in Maiduguri ahead of the 26 April gubernatorial elections. CENTRAL ASIA On 8 May, the Taliban in Afghanistan released a video of a Canadian tourist it kidnapped in February. According to the group, the hostage was involved in clandestine activities to discover the whereabouts of the Mujahidin. The hostage claims he travelled to Afghanistan to study historical sites. The Taliban warned that unless the Canadian government accepts its demands, he might face trial as a spy. SOUTH EAST ASIA Terrorists in Thailand carried out a car bombing in the commercial area of Yala province on 18 April. The powerful gas cylinder device exploded near a busy market as a security force vehicle passed by. Militants in southern Thailand have increasingly used bombs to attack the security forces in recent months. Another car bomb in March injured 18 people in Narathiwat province. SOUTH ASIA The Taliban in Pakistan staged three roadside Damaged navy bus attacked in Karachi bomb attacks in two days against navy buses in Karachi in late April. Two buses were attacked within 15 minutes of each other on 26 April at different locations killing four navy officers, and injuring around 60 others. Two days later the third attack against a navy bus killed five people and injured 13 others. The bombings were the first major attacks against the Pakistani military in Karachi in seven years. On 2 May, US Special Forces killed Osama bin Laden at his compound in Abbatobad in Pakistan. See page 8 for more details. PKK ambush a police convoy after an election rally MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA On 4 May, PKK gunmen in Turkey attacked a police vehicle that was escorting a campaign bus of the ruling AKP party. The attack in Kastamonu killed a police officer and injured two others. It occurred after the Turkish prime minister held an election rally in the town, although he was not in the convoy at the time of the attack. The PKK claimed responsibility and warned Turkey s government that it faces a great war if meaningful negotiations do not begin after June s national elections as they attempted to plant a bomb. On 5 May, in Iraq, a suicide car bomb exploded outside a police station in Hillah, in Babil province. The attack killed 24 policemen and wounded over 70 others. The Al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq, the ISI, claimed responsibility. On 6 May, an American military drone killed two suspected AQAP members in a car in southern Yemen. US officials said the target of the attack was Anwar al-awlaki, an Americanborn cleric that is linked to a number of attacks against the West. Awlaki reportedly survived the attack.

3 MOROCCO CAFÉ BOMBING Issue 33 May The Argana café after the explosion An explosion at a café in Marrakesh on 28 April killed 13 foreigners and three Moroccans. The attack was the deadliest in Morocco since The bomb exploded on the terrace of a café in Marrakesh s main square. Initial reports suggested a suicide bomber carried out the attack, but investigators later announced that device was remotely detonated and had been packed with shrapnel to maximise casualties. The location and target of the incident - a café popular with foreigners shows it was an attack which has implications for Morocco s tourism industry. The explosion killed eight French nationals, as well as a Briton, a Dutch, a Swiss, a Portuguese, and an Israeli- Canadian. A week after the attack, the Moroccan authorities announced they had identified the perpetrator and arrested three suspects. The interior minister stated that the main suspect was a jihadist with an allegiance to Al-Qaeda. He reportedly made the 6kg and 9kg devices using information gleaned from the internet, and planted the devices in the café while posing as a tourist. Witnesses provided descriptions that led to the arrests. Tourists told police that a man with two large bags entered the café, while another stood outside, looking agitated. Following the attack, checkpoints were set up at the entrance to Moroccan cities, and senior officials warned the country faced the same threats as in May In that month, terrorists mounted a series of attacks in quick succession in Casablanca, which targeted restaurants and a hotel popular with Western foreigners. Although the authorities have said that the suspects had direct links to Al- Qaeda in the Islamic Maghrem (AQIM), the group released a communiqué on 8 May in which it denied it carried out the bombing and said it had no link to the attack. However, the Moroccan authorities have continued to maintain that AQIM was a suspect. On 30 April, a government spokesman said, although Al-Qaeda has not claimed it, that does not mean it is not responsible. According to French media reports, sources close to the investigation have said that the bomb bore AQIM s signature. While such claims of proof remain unverified, there have been indications that AQIM has deepened its influence in Morocco. In April last year, the interior ministry announced it had arrested 24 AQIM operatives who were recruiting Moroccans to fight in Iraq, Somalia and Afghanistan. A few months later, reports suggested scores of Moroccans had joined AQIM, and were now in training camps in Mali and Somalia. This prompted concern in the government that Moroccan AQIM members were planning to attack their homeland. Three days before the attack, an excerpt of a 2007 AQIM video uploaded onto YouTube showed five militants threatening to attack Morocco. The video quickly disappeared from the site, and it remains unclear if it had any connection to the perpetrators of the bombing.

4 TALIBAN SPRING OFFENSIVE STARTS Issue 33 May it killed 116 government employees and security personnel in the attacks. Afghanistan s Interior Minister said it killed two and claimed that 23 Taliban suicide bombers died during the offensive and that security forces detained four other assailants. The Taliban claimed the tunnel took five months to dig, and showed the incompetence of Afghanistan s security forces. Afghan officials suspect prison guards collusion helped facilitate the mass breakout. It is unclear if any of the escapees were involved in the attack fortnight later. Afghan security personnel patrolled the compound of the governor of Kandahar following the armed attack In late April, the Afghan Taliban announced its annual spring military campaign would start on 1 May. In a statement on its website, it said it would focus attacks on enemy soldiers, government officials, spies, heads of companies and contractors. It also warned Afghans to avoid public gatherings and said it would pay strict attention to limit civilian casualties. On the 1 May, a 12 year-old suicide bomber detonated his explosive vest at a bazaar in Afghanistan s eastern Paktika province. The attack killed four people, including the head of a district council, and wounded 12 others. A week later, the Taliban launched a two-day assault on the southern city of Kandahar, with small arms and suicide bombing attacks on the governor s compound, the mayor s office, the Afghan intelligence agency and several police stations. The Taliban claimed that According to the Taliban, it planned the Kandahar operation months before Bin Laden s death, and it was not retaliation for the killing of the Al- Qaeda leader. However, the Taliban has hailed Bin Laden s martyrdom and predicted America s action in Pakistan would blow a new spirit into the jihad against the occupiers. The dramatic assault on Kandahar came just two weeks after Taliban members freed over 500 Taliban inmates from Kandahar s main prison after digging a 320-metrer tunnel to a cell. Escape tunnel in Kandahar prison

5 DISCLOSURE Issue 33 May IRISH TERRORISM THREAT TO BRITISH MAINLAND Dissident Irish republicans have developed the capability to stage attacks on the British mainland, according to counterterrorism sources quoted in the Guardian on 24 April. The last attack on the mainland was a car bomb in London at the BBC Television Centre in A day after the newspaper report, the Real IRA threatened to execute police officers in Northern Ireland, and declared its opposition to the Queen s visit to Northern Ireland in May. AL-QAEDA AVIATION THREAT Pakistan s daily newspaper the Nation reported on 23 April that Al-Qaeda is planning to attack UK-bound flights leaving Pakistan with liquid explosives. An intelligence agency has reportedly said that one of Pakistan s airports will be used to stage the attack in the near future. Officials neither in the UK nor Pakistan have verified the claims made by the newspaper. The strength of the intelligence or intelligence agency behind the report is not currently known. KENYAN POLICE ISSUE EASTER ALERT On 21 April, Kenyan police issued a terrorism alert that warned that Al- Shabaab might be planning an attack over the Easter period. The alert said shopping malls, places of worship, government buildings and recreational areas were all at risk of attack. Al-Shabaab has repeatedly threatened to attack Kenya for its alleged training and support of Somalia Transitional Federal Government troops. In the event Easter passed without incident. FRANCE WARNS OF KIDNAP THREAT On 20 April, the French Embassy in Mali posted an alert on its website that warned of a heightened threat of kidnapping in Mali and Niger. The alert said the Mopti region of Mali, near the border with Burkina Faso, was particularly at risk. Both Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and criminal gangs affiliated with the group, have kidnapped Western nationals in the Sahel region over recent months. PAKISTAN REPRISAL THREAT According to Pakistani interior ministry reports leaked to local media, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, the Haqqani network, the Al-Haq Brigade and Lashkar-e-Islam are planning a campaign of attacks if Pakistan s military intervenes in North Waziristan. On 19 April, the Express Tribune reported that the groups had agreed to target strategically important buildings, military installations and politicians. PHILIPPINE MILITARY WARNS OF ABU SAYYAF THREAT OVER EASTER On 20 April, the Philippines military warned that the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) may attempt to attack tourist spots and other crowded places over the Easter period. The government reportedly intensified intelligence operations against ASG and stepped up security at airports, ports, beaches resorts, churches, and other public places. No major attacks took place, however. WORD FROM THE UNDERGROUND The blood of the mujahid sheikh, Osama bin Laden, may God have mercy on him, is very dear to us and more precious to us and to every Muslim from being shed in vain. We assure there will be a curse hunting the Americans and their agents, chasing them both outside and inside the countries. On 6 May, Al-Qaeda confirmed the death of Osama bin Laden and warned that jihad against America and her allies will continue. We affirm that despite that striking the Jews and the crusaders, and the targeting of their interests is amongst our priorities which we incite Muslims upon and seek to execute, we choose a time and place that does not conflict with the interests of the Umma in moving towards the desired liberation. On 8 May, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb denied involvement in the bomb attack in Marrakesh that killed 16 people in April. We promise Allah that we will remain firm in the covenant and that we will continue the march, and that the death of the sheikh will only increase our persistence to fight the Jews and the Americans in order to take revenge. On 11 May, the leader of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) warned that the group would avenge the death of Bin Laden.

6 CT RAIDS IN EUROPE Issue 33 May German police arrest the three Al-Qaeda suspects Al-QAEDA IN TURKEY On 12 April, police arrested 55 suspected Islamist militants in a series of raids in Istanbul and the eastern Turkish province of Van. Halis Bayancuk, the widely presumed head of Al- Qaeda in Turkey, was reportedly among the detainees. It is unclear if the arrests have any connection to a suspected Al-Qaeda plot revealed six days earlier by the Turkish authorities. On 6 April, the government announced that the National Intelligence Organisation and the General Directorate of Security had reason to believe Al-Qaeda was planning a rocket attack on US military aircraft at Incirlik Air Base, in southeastern Turkey. The authorities said two Syrian members of Al-Qaeda had been tasked with carrying out the attack. Over the past two years, security forces have arrested over 400 Islamist terrorist suspects in Turkey. In October 2009, police detained 50 individuals in connection to a suspected Al-Qaeda plot against US, Israeli, and Nato targets in Germany. And in January 2010, police arrested 120 suspected jihadi terrorists who were reportedly planning to kill Turkish soldiers and police officers. AL-QAEDA IN GERMANY On 29 April, German authorities arrested three suspected Al-Qaeda members in Dusseldorf and Bochum. Germany s interior minister said the men posed an immediate [terrorist] threat at the time of their arrest. All three men in the Düsseldorf cell are Moroccan, but one holds a German passport. According to local media reports, a senior Al-Qaeda member reportedly ordered the cell s leader to carry out an attack in Germany last spring. German officials said the men were in the process of testing explosives and discussing potential targets. They had studied the security arrangements of public buildings, airports, and train stations but had not decided upon their final target. The security services reportedly overheard the suspects praising the 28 April bombing of a tourist café in Marrakech. Fearing that the attack might speed up their own plans they arrested the three men. It remains unclear if a there is any link between the two incidents. Investigators had refrained from arresting the men as they learned more about their connection to a wider Al-Qaeda network. According to German magazine Der Spiegel, the cell s leader was in regular contact with suspected Al- Qaeda operatives in the Afghan-Pakistan border region where he had trained. Over recent months. Germany has witnessed increased levels of counter-terrorism activity. On 3 October, the US State Department issued travel alert that warned of the potential for an attack in Europe. And in mid-november, the authorities increased security measures across the country after receiving warnings of an imminent terrorist attack. An anonymous caller alleged terrorists were planning a Mumbai-style attack.

7 AFTER BIN LADEN Issue 33 May Osama bin Laden s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan On 2 May, after nearly ten years of searching, the US government finally located and killed Osama Bin Laden. Far from hiding in Pakistan s tribal areas, he had spent recent years in a fortified compound 40 miles north of Islamabad, and just 800 meters from the Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad. The killing of such a high-profile figure in a unilateral action was inevitably controversial, but made more so by US officials giving changing accounts of the circumstances of Bin Laden s death. President Obama has said there will be no release of images of Bin Laden s body as proof he is dead. This has fuelled widespread scepticism but Al-Qaeda and its affiliates have all acknowledged the demise of the man to whom they swore loyalty. All pledged to continue the jihad. The intelligence gleaned from the raid on Bin Laden s safe house will undoubtedly transform our understanding of Al- Qaeda and the threat it poses. But the death of Bin Laden will probably also transform Al-Qaeda, which aside from eulogies and general threats of revenge, has remained remarkably silent. KILLING BIN LADEN According to official US accounts, it was the identification and tracking of Bin Laden s personal courier that led the CIA to the Al-Qaeda leader s hideout around August last year, where he lived in a secure compound with no telephone or internet connection. President Obama has said they only had sufficient confidence in the information of his whereabouts a week before the raid to order the operation that killed him. Apparently worried that the Pakistani government might compromise the operation, the US took unilateral action and launched the raid in secret. Two Black Hawk helicopters modified with hitherto unseen stealth technology and carrying 25 Navy Seals from Afghanistan, arrived at the compound after midnight. The assault team stormed the compound, shot and killed Bin Laden, his son Khalid and two suspected couriers, and wounded Bin Laden s wife. It also seized what officials described as the largest haul of intelligence ever discovered in an Al-Qaeda safe house, including ten hard drives, five computers and more than 100 portable storage devices. Bin Laden s family were also at the compound, although apparently unable to transport them because one of the helicopters crashed, the assault team departed with Bin Laden s body and the intelligence haul. According to the US government, they identified Bin Laden s body and then buried it at sea with appropriate Islamic rites. While undoubtedly a coup for President Obama, the US military and intelligence services, the raid has proven controversial. The Pakistani government has strongly protested about a violation of its sovereignty. Many are asking how Bin Laden could hide so close to its capital and whether elements of Pakistan s military or intelligence agency, the ISI, colluded with Bin Laden, as some US officials seem to suspect. There have been controversies over the circumstances of Bin Laden s death. Initial accounts portrayed him

8 AFTER BIN LADEN Issue 33 May Bin Laden s supporters across the world protested against his killing. using his wife as a human shield, and that the Seal team killed him as he put up resistance. Now it seems that both accounts were incorrect, and that the mission objective was to kill bin Laden, probably because his capture would greatly increase the risk of kidnappings of Americans in return. The decision to bury at sea has also been criticised but this too seems to have been a solution thought out long before, to prevent a grave becoming a shrine to followers. RETALIATION WARNINGS As news of Bin Laden s death broke, Western governments were quick to warn of reprisal attacks. When President Obama announced Bin Laden s death in a televised address later the same day, he warned that Al-Qaeda would continue to pursue attacks against the West. The head of the CIA said Al-Qaeda would almost certainly attempt to avenge Bin Laden s death. Interpol advised its member countries to be on full alert. London s chief police officer cautioned the British public that terrorist attacks are highly likely and could occur without warning, although this warning is consistent with Britain s national threat level before Bin Laden s death, and which remains unchanged. A number of countries including the US, India, Nigeria and the Philippines increased security checks at airports, while others including Britain and France stepped up security at diplomatic missions and embassies. The US State Department issued a worldwide travel alert, in which it urged its citizens to avoid mass gatherings. Britain and Australia warned their citizens to remain vigilant against anti-western reprisal attacks. Although Western governments are evidently concerned about the high potential of reprisal attacks, the terrorism threat levels of a number of countries including America, Britain, France and Germany have remained unchanged since Bin Laden s death. According to their methodologies, this is because none has specific intelligence of imminent attack, suggesting the warnings are presumptive. AL-QAEDA EULOGIES Al-Qaeda and its affiliates were slower to respond. Most hailed Bin Laden a martyr and pledged that the jihad would go on. Not all warned they would mount attacks to avenge his death. Al-Qaeda issued a communiqué four days after the raid, in which it acknowledged Bin Laden s death and pledged his blood would not be in spilled in vain. The statement issued vague warnings that America s joy will soon turn to sadness. It warned that his death would be a curse that chases the Americans and their agents, and goes after them inside and outside their countries. It also called on Muslims in Pakistan to rise up and cleanse the country of American filth. Al-Shabaab in Somalia, the TTP in Pakistan, and AQAP in Yemen all made threats to mount

9 AFTER BIN LADEN Issue 33 May attacks to avenge Bin Laden s death in official communiqués. On 3 May, the TTP, which is the most active terrorist organisation in Pakistan, said it would definitely take revenge on America as well as Pakistan, and claimed it already had people in America. On 5 May, Al-Shabaab said it would make the US regret killing Bin Laden. And on 11 May, AQAP s leader Nasser al-wuhaishi said the coming attacks will be worse than those during the life of Bin Laden. He added that AQAP would only increase its persistence to fight the Jews and Americans in order to take revenge. Other groups, including the Afghan Taliban, Fatah al-islam and the Abdullah Azzam Brigades have also issued eulogist statements concerning the death Bin Laden, most stating that his death will have no effect on the jihad. AL-QAEDA: THE NEXT ATTACK With both official and Al- Qaeda warnings strongly indicating retaliatory attacks on the horizon, it is reasonable to speculate where and when these are most likely. The countries most at risk of reprisal attack already have a severe threat from Al-Qaeda and affiliated groups. Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Algeria, Mauritania, Mali and Niger are where local active chapters or sworn allies are capable of mounting successful major attacks on local Western interests. Western officials seem most concerned that Al- Qaeda s chapters in Yemen (AQAP) and North Africa (AQIM) are the groups most likely to mount attacks actually in Western countries. The British prime minister warned on 3 May that these two affiliates might attempt attacks to demonstrate their continued ability to operate. A week before Bin Laden s death, a US State Department report said AQAP continues to show its growing ambitions and strong desire to carry out attacks out of its region. It also described AQAP as the first of the affiliates to make attacking the United States at home a central goal. Since its formation in January 2009, AQAP has made two serious attack attempts on US soil and placed a much greater emphasis on attacking the far enemy than any other Al-Qaeda affiliate. But it seems unlikely that other affiliates possess the necessary capability or even the desire, to mount large-scale retaliatory attacks outside of their immediate operating regions. So far, neither AQIM nor Al-Qaeda in Iraq (now known as the Islamic State of Iraq) has ever attempted to attack the American homeland, although there have been cases where there have been suspected links. FOLLOWERS, ALONE AND OTHERWISE AQAP has gone to considerable lengths in its messaging to encourage followers in the West to mount attacks on their own initiative. It claims the shootings in Fort Hood by a radicalised US Army major among its successes. Its online English-language magazine Inspire provides operational advice for would-be combatants and encourages individuals to carry out mass casualty attacks in public places. It seems highly probable that AQAP will call on followers in the West to avenge Bin Laden s death in the upcoming edition. Indeed, Al-Qaeda followers have been vociferous in calling for reprisals. One prolific member of the jihadi web forum Shumukh al-islam stressed the necessity of taking immediate action, seriously and effectively, to arrange and prepare for jihad raids targeting primarily America, the bearer of the banner of the cross, and the NATO allies that stand with her. In our view, attacks by followers in the West that operate outside of the organisational structures of Al-Qaeda affiliate groups are probably the greatest near-term source of revenge attacks. Since 2009, followers of Al- Qaeda s ideology have carried out at least nine lone wolf attacks in Western cities, according to the Terrorism Tracker database. Among them last December, a bomber botched a suicide attack against shoppers in Sweden, in March, another Islamist apparently acting alone killed two US airmen at a German airport. It is still unclear how much training or direction the perpetrators received from official jihadi organisations at home or abroad, and it is quite probable that exposure to an extremist organisation in some form led to their radicalisation. But in all cases, it seems that the attacks were more Al-Qaeda-inspired than managed. In light of this trend, Britain s prime minister warned on 3 May that alongside Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, a radical individual acting alone might carry out revenge attacks. The Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee described lone wolves as a great concern in the days ahead. >>

10 AFTER BIN LADEN Issue 33 May THE REAL BIN LADEN While revenge attacks are the most obvious near term risk concern arising from bin Laden s death, the impact of his death on Al-Qaeda is harder to discern until more information becomes available about what role he played and what intelligence the US Navy Seals recovered in the raid. If US official accounts are to be believed, then the first revelation is that widely held assumptions that Bin Laden only functioned as a figurehead after he went into hiding are wrong. Indeed, Bin Laden was playing a much greater role in Al-Qaeda than previously assumed. Materials seized in his compound reportedly show that he was an active leader who provided strategic, operational and tactical instructions to the group. Videos found in the compound, and released by the US, suggest he was making recordings to communicate with his followers and playing a role in planning attacks. On 5 May, US officials announced that intelligence found in Bin Laden s compound showed that the group had considered an attack against the US rail network to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Although the plot was at an aspirational stage, increased security patrols occurred at US rail stations following the discovery. THE IMPACT ON AL- QAEDA If Bin Laden was intimately directing operations, then his death will have a much greater impact on Al-Qaeda than were he just a figurehead. Al-Qaeda and affiliates have stressed that the jihad will go on without him and have hailed his martyrdom, but there are practical consequences to the loss of an operational leader. In the first instance, the ideology of global jihad against the West was uniquely Bin Laden s, and those individuals and groups that joined Al- Qaeda swore a blood oath to him personally. This means that their personal rights and duties in the global jihad were through Bin Laden, and their links to one another flowed through his authority. This matter of loyalty and leadership raises important questions about his possible successor. The most obvious candidate is his ostensible deputy Ayman al-zawahiri. But so far, Al-Qaeda has made no mention of succession whatsoever its communiqué acknowledging Bin Laden s death mentioned no names and had no signatures. As Al-Qaeda members swore allegiance to Bin Laden, and not to Zawahiri, it remains to be seen whether Al-Qaeda members will recognise Zawahiri, or whether any disputes will emerge over other possible candidates, such as the younger and prolific Abu Yahya al-libi. What also remains to be seen is whether any successor will be able to keep the broader Al-Qaeda movement together, or whether the groups and factions that comprise it will step back from their sworn duty to attack the West, preferring local issues and targets of greater convenience. Many Al-Qaeda affiliates were born out of local conflicts before they swore loyalty to Bin Laden. It is possible that some will drift away from the idea that attacking the far enemy is a priority as Bin Laden famously advocated. For now, the silence could simply be because its senior ranks have gone to ground. The intelligence seized during the raid may be highly damaging to organisation. Moreover, the discovery of Bin Laden s courier, that ultimately led US Special Forces to his compound, could prompt the remaining Al-Qaeda command to think that their own means of communication has been similarly compromised. This possibility suggests that Al-Qaeda s retaliation may be some time coming and fall to its most dedicated affiliates like AQAP to act in its stead. The first US drone strike in Yemen since 2009, against the senior AQAP figure Anwar al-awlaki, might suggest how the US is now prioritising its target list. Although Al-Qaeda and the global jihadist movement have lost their leader and figurehead, Bin Laden s ideology has propagated widely and infused into many diverse Islamist struggles. The dispersion of its members and incorporation of local affiliates, means he has left behind disciples that will try to keep the global jihadi movement alive. But Bin Laden s idea may have begun to die before the US Navy Seals visited him. As quiet as Al-Qaeda has remained since his death, it had also been quiet on Arab uprisings, which shattered his argument that change could only come through violent jihad. It seems Bin Laden met his historic end just when he was most out of step with history.

11 AQIM: FRENCH HOSTAGES VIDEO Issue 33 May Audio recordings were played over still images of the French hostages On 26 April, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) released a video message from four French hostages it kidnapped in northern Niger last September. In near identical recordings, the captives appealed to French President Nicolas Sarkozy to withdraw French troops from Afghanistan. The four French hostages were kidnapped in a group of seven last year from the uranium-mining town of Arlit. In February, AQIM released three of the hostages, including a French woman, after reportedly receiving a ransom payment. The French government denied any involvement. AQIM demanded seven million Euros for the release of the captives last October and said France would have to release militants from its jails and repeal its decision to ban the wearing of full-face veils in public before it released the hostages. In March 2011, the ransom demand for the remaining four hostages had increased to $90 million according to a source close to the mediators. Four months earlier, AQIM announced that Osama bin Laden would oversee all future discussions on the hostages release. Days earlier, the late Al-Qaeda leader released an audio message that warned France its citizens would continue to be targeted it if failed to remove its troops from Afghanistan. In January 2011, AQIM seized two French civilians in Niger and subsequently killed the hostages following a botched rescue attempt by French troops. Six months earlier, AQIM murdered its first French hostage following another failed French military raid. Following the killings, France cautioned its citizens about the threat posed by AQIM in northwest Africa. In January, the French foreign ministry said the Sahel was no longer safe and in April the French Embassy in Mali warned of a heightened kidnapping risk to French nationals in Niger and Mali. On 8 May, AQIM released a eulogy for Bin Laden, but issued no further statement regarding hostages. Four days earlier, a prolific member of key jihadi web forum called on AQIM to kill one of the hostages after Nicolas Sarkozy praised the US operation that killed Bin Laden.

12 TERRORISM IN INDONESIA Issue 33 May The Indonesian Bomb Squad inspects a suspicious package found in Jakarta s main business district on 28 April In the past month, Islamist militants in Indonesia have staged a series of attacks. These include a suicide bombing at a police mosque in Cirebon in mid-april and a foiled plot to blow up a packed cathedral on Good Friday in Jakarta. In March, extremists also sent parcel bombs to advocates of liberal Islam. These latest incidents point towards a sustained threat, which appears to come from small cells, remnants of larger Islamist networks and elements from more mainstream Islamist movements. In its haste to destroy larger, high-profile networks such as Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT) the Indonesian authorities appear to have neglected less overtly militant groups like Darul Islam (DI). Meanwhile new groupings of Islamist militants appear to have engaged with organisations such as the Islamic Defender s Front, which have historically been peaceful movements. Recent statements by the president indicate that the government now recognises the threat that these new radical groupings pose. Following the discovery of the bombs near the cathedral on Good Friday, the president, Yudhoyono, stated If we continue to let [the radical Islamist movement] happen, it will threaten the character of our nation and people. COUNTER TERRORISM SUCCESSES The Indonesian government has carried out a series of successful counter-terrorism operations against the largest and best known of the country s militant groups. In February last year, an Al-Qaeda in Aceh training camp in North Sumatra was torn down. JI and JAT members have been under constant pressure from arrests of followers over several years. As a result, talented or influential members, such as the Malaysian bomb-maker, Noordin Top, have either been killed or captured. In the past week, Indonesian authorities alleged that JI leader Umar Patek intended to meet Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad, before his arrest by the Pakistani authorities in January. A RESILIENT THREAT Despite the pressure on radical movements, militant Islamist ideology has enduring appeal in Indonesia. This is evident in recent incidents, such as a 15 April suicide bombing at a mosque in a police compound reveal that the perpetrator, an unemployed 31-year-old, had attended rallies by Islamist activist groups and became radicalised by listening to the sermons of JI cleric, Abu Bakar Bashir, who is currently on trial at the South Jakarta District Court for his alleged involvement in the Aceh terrorist training camp. Subsequent arrests by Indonesian police in early May of three suspects in the police mosque suicide bombing appear to reveal connections between the current campaign and more established Islamist networks. Police believe that the cell behind the Cirebon mosque bombing may also be linked to the Aceh training camp, as well as to an Islamist terrorist network from Klaten, Central Java. That network included a terrorist operative who spent ten years in prison for his role in making bombs for the 2002 Bali attacks, which killed 202 people. On Friday 22 April, counter-terrorism

13 TERRORISM IN INDONESIA Issue 33 May Police are on high alert in Jakarta authorities in Jakarta found five bombs, including two 100kg devices planted near a cathedral, after they arrested 19 suspects in the March book bombings. The devices were set to explode at 0900hrs during the packed Good Friday mass. After these discoveries, the president put Jakarta on its highest security alert level for the Easter weekend, with more than 20,000 police officers deployed to protect the capital. The following Thursday police discovered a suspect package containing sawdust and a nail on a roundabout in Jakarta s commercial heart, Plaza Indonesia, located near luxury hotels and the British Embassy. The authorities have not yet confirmed whether this device was a viable bomb. Most recently, on 5 May, Indonesian police discovered six bombs in the port city of Cirebon, on the north coast of Java. Police believe the bombs were probably intended for a wave of suicide attacks. PROFILING THE THREAT The Indonesian authorities are already beginning to learn how these active militant cells organise themselves. Investigations into the recent attacks seem to suggest a fusion of veteran radicals with a new generation of radical Islamists. One of the prime suspects arrested in connection with the March parcel bombs and the attempted church bombings is Pepi Fernando. Originally a member of the six-decade old group DI, Fernando also had connections to other, larger groups, such as JI and JAT. DI and JI have had an overlapping membership. In 2002, a former DI member drove an explosives-laden van into a nightclub in Bali. Members of DI were also involved in attacks on Christian communities in the Maluku and Sunda Islands between 1999 and The group allegedly has international connections and developed relationships with militant organisations in Pakistan and Afghanistan in the 1980s. Judging by the explosives found in the recent attacks, those behind the incidents have not benefitted from an experienced bomb-maker, such as JI s Noordin Top. The bombs found in the most recent Cirebon incident had small quantities of homemade explosives and faulty wiring. Recent arrests also indicate how militants have been funding themselves. On 8th April, the authorities arrested two men in Aceh Besar for their involvement in a failed armed robbery on banks and gold shops in the region. One of those arrested had reportedly served more than four years in jail for his role in ferrying explosives used in the 2004 Jakarta JW Marriott hotel bombing. OUTLOOK AND THE THREAT TO WESTERN INTERESTS Following its apparent success in breaking up more established, overtly violent Islamist networks such as JI, Indonesia now appear to face an emerging threat from smaller remnants of these groups, as well as new militant collaborations. There has not been an attack against Western interests in Indonesia since the JW Marriott and Ritz Carlton hotel bombings in June 2009 and recent incidents have only affected domestic interests, such as local Muslims and counterterrorism officials. However, this latest incarnation of active militant Islamists in Indonesia is connected, both ideologically and personally, to groups such as JI, that have staged several attacks on Western interests in the past decade.

14 ATTACKS BY SECTOR Issue 33 May APR 11: ATTACKS ON BUSINESS BY SECTOR OIL AND GAS 7% 24% 19% An explosion at a gas facility in Qom province on 8 April disrupted the delivery of gas to northern Iran. The explosion damaged three pipelines but there were no casualties. Iran called the incident a terrorist attack, but no group claimed responsibility. The most active group operating in northern Iran is the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK) an Iraq-based Kurdish organisation linked to the PKK in Turkey. FARC continued its campaign against oil and gas infrastructure in April, mounting five separate attacks against pipelines in northern Colombia. Four of the bombings occurred on pipelines close 10% 5% 7% 29% Construction Extractives Financial Media Retail Tourism Other to the country s border with Venezuela. The attacks caused significant disruption to oil supplies but no casualties. An attack against Colombia s second-longest pipeline, the Caño Limón, on 30 April, prohibited pumping for four days. Suspected Bedouins attacked a natural gas pipeline in northern Sinai, Egypt, on 27 April. The bombing caused no casualties but the ruptured pipeline, which shot flames 20 metres into the sky, disrupted gas supplies to Jordan and Israel. The pipeline was previously attacked in February during large antigovernment protests that forced Hosni Mubarak from power. Another device planted near the pipeline in mid-march failed to explode. CONSTRUCTION A roadside bomb exploded in Jalabad, Afghanistan on 12 April as a car belonging to a construction company passed by. The attack killed five construction workers. The Taliban regularly tries to disrupt development in the country by attacking labourers working on government projects. On 20 April, the group released 12 Iranian construction workers it kidnapped in Farah province earlier that week. On 18 April, gunmen opened fire on a group of construction workers in Balochistan, Pakistan. The attack killed two workers and injured four others. No group claimed the attack, but it is likely the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), was responsible. In March, BLF militants opened fire on a camp of construction workers near the port city of Gwadar. Secessionist groups regularly target construction companies operating in the province. ELECTRICITY On 2 April, unidentified assailants exploded bombs at two electricity pylons in Bazid Khel, Pakistan. The 2kg devices destroyed both pylons and disrupted electricity supplies to Mianwali and Dear Ismail Khan. No group claimed the attack. On 26 April, terrorists planted four bombs near an electricity tower in Swabi district, Pakistan. Two of the bombs exploded and partially damaged a transmission line, while security personnel defused the other devices. The electricity line was the target of a similar bombing in TELECOMMUNICATIONS On 18 April, Maoist insurgents (CPI-M) raided a village in India s Jamui district. Armed men set two telephone masts alight and killed a villager. The CPI-M regularly attacks critical infrastructure to undermine local government in the region. India s federal government is proposing to install telecom towers at police stations in Maoist influenced areas. FINANCIAL On 14 April, some 100 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) militants attacked a bank and police station in Guaitarilla, Colombia. They stole 140 million pesos ($300,000) and injured a civilian and two police officers during the attack. In March, the group attacked a helicopter delivering money to a bank in Caloto, and escaped with another large sum of cash. On 20 April, the head of Colombia s armed forces said FARC is weakening and has increased the

15 ATTACKS BY SECTOR Issue 33 May frequency of its attacks over the past few months to remain visible, although these attacks clearly appear oriented at raising funds. Two bombs exploded outside ATM machines on 16 April in Iran s Kurdistan province. The explosions, which were 10 minutes apart, caused material damage to the cash dispensers and injured a passer-by. Last November, Iranian officials defused two bombs in the city of Sanandaj, where the latest attacks took place. MEDIA On 8 April, gunmen assassinated the director of the Al-Masar TV channel in Baghdad, Iraq. A month earlier, militants assassinated an employee of the Mosuliya TV channel in Mosul. Terrorists frequently target journalists in Iraq. On 23 April, a suicide bomber tried to assassinate the director in charge of religious radio broadcasts in Afghanistan s Khost province. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the bombing, which injured five people at a busy market. TOURISM Boko Haram exploded two bombs at the Tudu Palace hotel bar in Maiduguri, Nigeria on 23 April. The explosions, three day before governorship elections took APR 09 - APR 11: PROPORTION OF ATTACKS ON BUSINESS Number of Incidents place, killed three people and wounded 14 others. Boko Haram mounted a series of attacks across the city shortly before and after polling started. RETAIL Unidentified assailants threw a hand grenade into a busy shopping area in Karachi, Pakistan, on 7 April. The explosion, outside a milk shop near Rainbow Centre, killed a man and wounded 19 other people. Eyewitnesses said that two men on motorcycles threw the grenade at the centre before fleeing. Rainbow Centre is Pakistan s largest CD and DVD market, and one of the largest hubs for video piracy in the world. On 18 April, terrorists conducted two separate attacks outside shops selling alcohol in Baghdad. The explosions occurred in central and New Baghdad but caused no casualties. Suspected Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) bombers detonated an explosive device in a commercial market in Pakistan s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on 19 April. Around ten shops sustained material damage but there no reports of casualties. TERRORISMTRACKER DATABASE AND LIVE THREAT MAP Terrorism Tracker is a comprehensive global database of terrorist attacks and plots. Each terrorist event is geo-tagged to allow its actual location to be viewed using the Google Maps interface. Terrorism Tracker is updated daily, with new events displayed as they occur. Terrorism Tracker will become an essential part of your threat monitoring activities. Access is available free of charge to all clients of Aon s Counter Terrorism team or by subscription from Janusian. For further information about access to Terrorism Tracker please speak to your Aon broker or visit ABOUT AON Aon has developed a unique approach to terrorism risk management, combining expert consulting with the most appropriate risk transfer solutions. Aon s specialist Crisis Management division provides integrated risk mitigation, management and transfer solutions against terrorism, political risk, kidnap for ransom, extortion, product contamination and recall. Aon is the leading global provider of risk management services, insurance brokerage, and human capital consulting, delivering distinctive client value through its 59,000 colleagues and 500 offices in more than 120 countries. Aon is regulated by the Financial Services Authority in respect of insurance mediation activities only. FP ref: ABOUT JANUSIAN Janusian provides security consultancy and services to multinational companies and other large organisations. We have particular expertise in the assessment and management of terrorism risk and in assisting clients to develop suitable security strategies. The Janusian team combines intelligence analysts and security specialists, who work in close cooperation to ensure that our advice is appropriate to the threats our clients encounter and their business needs. Janusian is the political and security risk management practice of The Risk Advisory Group. 0 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 crisismanagement@aon.co.uk intelligence@janusian.com Business Targets Other Targets