sinai threat >> Pages 9-10

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1 Issue 47 August TERRORISMTRACKER in this issue Focus This month s edition focuses on escalating violence in the Sinai >> Pages 6-7 a TTP attack on a Pakistani airbase >> Page 8 a northward trend of terrorism in Algeria >> Pages 9-10 and a bombing in Turkey >> Page 11 disclosure The latest threat warnings from governments around the world >> Page 3 WORLD News in brief A monthly review of terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism activity around the world. >> Page 2 egypt confronts sinai threat >> Pages 9-10 News in focus A foiled bomb plot in Saudi Arabia >> Page 2 and an explosion in Kazakhstan >> Page 2 attacks by sector A breakdown of business sectors affected by terrorist activity across the world in July >> Pages Unless otherwise stated, ALL IMAGES LICENsED FROM PA images

2 WORLD NEWS IN BRIEF Issue 47 August americas On 5 August, a White supremacist opened fire on worshipers at a Sikh temple in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA. The attacker - an ex-soldier and neo- Nazi singer - killed six people before shooting himself. While on 27 August, a court in Georgia heard that four soldiers arrested last December had formed an anarchist militia and plotted to kill President Obama and overthrow the federal government. EUROPE In early August, Spanish police arrested two Russians and a Turkish national on suspicion of plotting attacks in Spain and possibly other European countries. A video found in one of the men s apartments suggested the group planned to drop explosives on targets from a remote controlled plane. Six days earlier, a member of a leading jihadist forum posted instructions on how to use model airplanes to conduct surveillance and attacks. middle east On 18 August, heavily armed gunmen attacked the headquarters of Yemen s secret police in Aden. At least 17 people died in the attack. No group has claimed responsibility, but the target and nature of the attack is consistent with past AQAP attacks. In June 2010, the group staged a similar attack on the same intelligence building. north africa On 21 August, three European hostages held captive by terrorists in Mali urged their governments to negotiate their release in a video broadcast by Al- Jazeera. The Dutch, Swedish and dual British/South African hostages were kidnapped in Timbuktu in November 2011 by suspected Ansar al-din gunmen. According to the Terrorism Tracker database, 48% of all terrorist kidnappings of foreigners in the Sahel since 2010 have occurred in Mali. sub Saharan africa On 26 August, the Nigerian government said it was conducting back-channel talks with Boko Haram in an attempt to end the three-year long insurgency which has killed more than 1500 people. Nigerian officials claimed negotiations with Boko Haram s deputy leader occurred in Saudi Arabia in August; the group denied the claim and threatened further attacks. In March, the group said it had closed all possible doors of negotiation with Nigeria s government and would restore an Islamic Caliphate in Nigeria. south asia On 26 August, Afghan government and intelligence officials claimed that a US drone strike in Pakistan s tribal region had killed Badruddin Haqqani, the suspected deputy leader of the Haqqani Network. US officials believe the network is responsible for the sophisticated attacks in Afghanistan in recent years. It is closely aligned to the Taliban, which denied that Badruddin had died. A day earlier, US officials confirmed that a drone strike in Afghanistan had killed Mullah Dadullah, a senior Pakistani Taliban commander. south east asia In recent weeks, insurgents have staged a series of attacks in southern Thailand that show growing capabilities and sophistication. On 31 July, a car bomb targeted the CS Pattani Hotel on Nhongjik Road in the provincial capital of Pattani province. The attack wounded three people. It was the second on a major hotel this year, after a car bomb targeted the Lee Gardens Plaza Hotel in Hat Yai. Both hotels are frequented by government officials, foreign tourists and business travellers.

3 Disclosure Issue 47 August Security on alert at Pakistan s largest airport On 27 August, the Express Tribune reported that security was tightened at Jinnah International Airport in Karachi following threats of a possible terrorist attack. An airport manager cited in the report claimed that snipers were deployed at the airport and police along approaching roads. He said security measures would stay in effect for an indefinite period. At the time of writing, government officials had not commented on the alleged threat and no other media sources reported increased security at the airport. ALLEGED THREAT TO US NATIONALS IN PAKISTAN On 23 August, the Express Tribune, citing an official confidential report, reported that the TTP is planning to kidnap US nationals as well as current and retired Pakistani military officers, in an attempt to raise funds and exchange hostages for TTP prisoners. The Interior Ministry reportedly circulated the report to law enforcement and administrative agencies countrywide. Most Western governments warn of a high threat of kidnapping to foreign nationals in Pakistan. NEW AL-SHABAAB TACTIC IN KENYA On 6 August, Kenyan police warned that Al-Shabaab (AS) was using a new tactic to mount attacks in Kenya. AS militants are reportedly paying unsuspecting locals to transport bombs disguised as household items, before remotely detonating the devices when near intended targets. This new tactic was apparently used in two attacks in August outside a Catholic church and Kenya s air force headquarters in Nairobi. BOMB SCARE IN NORWAY; BREIVIK SENTENCED Security guards at the US Embassy in Oslo discovered a suspicious object attached to an embassy vehicle on 31 July. The discovery prompted the authorities to evacuate the embassy, Presidential Palace and surrounding downtown area. The object turned out to be a dummy bomb that was used in a security drill at the embassy days earlier and mistakenly left on the vehicle. Last July, a bomb attack in central Oslo killed eight people, before the attacker, Anders Breivik killed 69 others less than two hours later on Utøya. On 24 August, a court in Norway sentenced Breivik to 21 years in prison for the massacre. US State Department 2011 Terrorism Report On 31 July, the US State Department released its annual report on terrorism which highlighted trends and developments in the past calendar year. The report is the first to be released since the death of Osama bin Laden and described 2011 as a landmark year in the global effort to counter terrorism. It claimed that a series of counter-terrorism successes against Al- Qaeda s central leadership has put the network on a path of decline that will be difficult to reverse. But warned that while Al-Qaeda s core has got weaker its affiliates around the world have not. The report warns that AQAP poses a particularly serious threat and has exploited unrest in southern Yemen to advance plots against regional and Western interests. Despite the lack of attacks in 2011, the report says the US remains concerned about the terrorism threat to the US mainland from both established terrorist groups and lone wolves. The report also named Iran as a threat and said the world s leading state sponsor of terrorism continues to threaten stability, especially in the Middle East and South Asia. In January, the US director of national intelligence told a Senate select committee that Iran s leadership is now more willing to stage an attack inside the US and that intelligence agencies are concerned about Iranian plots against US and allied interests around the world.

4 news in focus Issue 47 August Bomb plot foiled in Saudi Arabia On 26 August, Saudi officials announced the arrest of eight members of two terrorist cells in Riyadh and Jeddah. The Saudi Interior Ministry said the men planned to conduct criminal operations targeting security men, citizens, residents and public facilities. The official announcement said the cells were at an advanced stage of planning, but did not indicate when they had chosen a target or decided when to attack. The authorities did not reveal when the arrests took place, although in the past, Saudi officials have announced arrests months after making them. Following the announcement, the US Embassy in Riyadh released an emergency message that informed its citizens of the developments. The message warned that terrorist groups on the Arabian Peninsula continue to pose a threat to U.S. citizens and U.S.-affiliated businesses, restaurants, and facilities. The official report said security forces had watched the Riyadh cell for some time, and eventually arrested a Saudi citizen, who gave additional information about the group s activities. This allowed them to arrest six other cell members, who were all of Yemeni nationals. According to the announcement, the group had begun preparing explosives which they planned to test outside Riyadh. In a search of three locations, including a room attached to a mosque in Riyadh, security forces discovered chemicals used to manufacture explosives, and booby-trapped mobiles to be used through remote detonations. The Interior Ministry reports that the security forces then discovered another cell based in Jeddah and arrested a Saudi national who was a member of the group. He has reportedly confessed to preparing explosives. The Interior Ministry says the cells were communicating with a deviant organisation which is how the Saudi state usually refers to the Yemen-based Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In the last few years, many of those arrested in Saudi Arabia in connection with terrorism-related offenses have been Yemeni nationals or had connections with AQAP. In 2009, when AQAP emerged as the second incarnation of a group with the same name that was active in the Kingdom between 2003 and 2006, it was largely made up of Saudi and Yemeni nationals. AQAP was responsible for the most recent significant attack in the Kingdom, when a suicide bomber targeted Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who was the deputy Interior Minister at the time, in Jeddah in EXPLOSION IN KAZAKHSTAN On 11 July, an explosion at a house near Almaty, Kazakhstan s largest city, killed eight people. Police reportedly found weapons, explosives and extremist religious literature in the house. The residents of the house were unknown to Kazakhstan s domestic security agencies before the explosion. A subsequent investigation led the authorities to a nearby district, where nine suspected accomplices died in a firefight with police. Kazakhstan experienced a series of terrorist attacks against government targets last year. The deadliest took place on 12 November, when a lone wolf gunman killed seven security officers in Taraz. Although terrorists have failed to mount a successful attack in the country this year, there are indications that violent Islamist factions are still active and retain some capability to mount attacks in Kazakhstan. In recent years, Kazakhstan s authoritarian government has invested heavily in counter-terrorism training. As a result, hardly a week goes by without news of a counter-terrorist operation or arrest. The wide geographic spread of operations suggests aspiring militants are active across the country. Only one established group has claimed attacks in Kazakhstan in the past 12 months. Last October, Jund Al-Khilafah (JaK) took responsibility for a bombing outside a government building in Atyrau Kazakhstan s oil capital and in November the shooting of two elite police officers in Almaty. Although JaK is based the Afghan- Pakistan border, where it is most probably affiliated with groups that espouse anti-western ideas, its pattern of attacks last year suggest its principal targets are elements and symbols of the Kazakh state. Since October 2011, JaK has released several statements that threaten violence against the government of Kazakhstan for the mistreatment of Kazakh Muslims. JaK released its last statement in late March, claiming to have trained Mohammed Merah, the gunman who killed seven people in a shooting rampage in southern France days earlier.

5 Register for Free Tickets If you would like free tickets to Transec please visit: and enter the discount code AON when prompted during the registration process*. Aon is pleased to offer free tickets to the 2012 Transport Security Expo (Transec) November London. Transec is the premier international event for transport industry professionals, providing a unique environment in which to debate problems, learn from the experience of others and discover the innovative solutions offered by commercial vendors. There are three conference programmes Marine, Aviation and Public Transport. Aon will be participating in the Marine and Aviation conferences and hosting an area during the evening drinks reception. In addition, Aon s crisis consultants are running a free Crisis Management workshop. Crisis Management Workshop Acts of terrorism, kidnap for ransom, extortion and politically motivated disruption are just some of the extraordinary risks that your company could face. They could affect your personnel, property, business operations, reputation and brand. How rapidly and effectively you react in a crisis is critical. It can make the difference between recovering well, or not at all. Aon s Crisis Management Consulting team will be running a free workshop in order to help you increase your resilience against these risks. The session will enable you to: Anticipate and understand the risks you are exposed to Prevent crisis risks from occurring and prepare to deal with them, should they occur Respond appropriately during a crisis Recover effectively from a crisis To register for the workshop, please simon.honor@aon.co.uk. Please note places are limited and will be awarded on a first come, first served basis. For full details of the event please visit: *The free code provides access to any of the conference streams, however the offer is limited to one conference per day. Places are limited and free tickets will be provided on a first come, first serve basis. Please note a maximum of three tickets will be allocated per organisation. Tickets provide entrance to the conference only and do not include transport, accommodation or additional expenses.

6 Issue 47 August SINAI VIOLENCE ESCALATES A deadly cross-border attack in early August showed the increased confidence of militants operating in Egypt s Sinai Peninsula. With ground assaults and rocket firings into Israel becoming more frequent, Israel is watching the Egyptian military response with concern. bold assault On 5 August, suspected Islamist terrorists mounted a complex attack on an Egyptian checkpoint close to Gaza on the Egypt-Israel border. The incident was the deadliest single attack in Sinai for six years and the most lethal in Egypt since a suicide bombing in Alexandria on 1 July According to Egyptian security sources, up to 35 masked gunmen killed 16 Egyptian soldiers, stole an armored vehicle and then attempted to enter Israel by ramming it through the Kerem Shalom border crossing. Israel scrambled a jet which bombed the vehicle as the attackers tried to drive along the Israeli side of the border. Another vehicle belonging to the attackers exploded on the Egyptian side; it appears to have been a car bomb. Israeli forces discovered the bodies of at least seven attackers but have not indicated their nationality. Some media reports suggested the attackers were dressed like Bedouin. The assailants appeared to have timed the assault for when the Egyptian security forces were breaking their fast during Ramadan, to catch them off guard. No group has claimed responsibility and several jihadist groups have denied their involvement. This is most likely because the attack killed Egyptians rather than Israelis. Previous attacks in the frontier region have selected softer targets, or made use of vulnerabilities in border security. The scale, boldness and relative sophistication of the incident seems to suggest that the capability of groups operating in the Sinai is growing. Prior warnings The incident did not come without warning. Four days earlier, the Israeli Counterterrorism Bureau (CTB) reissued its travel advice and warned of an imminent terrorism threat to its citizens in the Sinai, with an emphasis on kidnapping. It is unclear whether the CTB alert was based on specific intelligence or was a response to several incidents in the Sinai area in the weeks running up to the attack. These include two shooting incidents and a bomb and gun attack that killed an Israeli construction worker on 1 August. The spate of border attacks in recent months suggests that militant groups are able to travel across the region with relative impunity despite increased security measures. Rising rocket attacks The security vacuum in the Peninsula since the fall of the Mubarak regime also appears to have increased terrorists ability to launch rocket attacks against Israel. Data from Terrorism Tracker shows that rocket attacks from the Sinai have become more frequent since April. The most recent occurred on 15 August when unidentified attackers fired two rockets at Eilat, a popular resort town in southern Israel. The rockets landed near a residential area but caused no casualties or damage. Four days after the attack, the IDF deployed an Iron Dome rocket defence system outside the city. On 17 August, the Sinai-based militant Islamist group, Ansar Jerusalem, claimed the 15 August rocket attack on Eilat. The same group carried out a sophisticated cross-border terrorist attack on Israeli soldiers and civilians near Eilat on 18 August 2011 that killed six civilians and left dozens injured. Since the August 2011 attack, Ansar Jerusalem has become one of the most active and prolific jihadist groups in the Sinai and threatened to stage larger attacks on the Arish-Ashkelon pipeline if the new Egyptian government resumes supplying gas to Israel. Prior to August, Sinai-based militants fired two Grad rockets 75km north of Eilat in June and three Grad rockets at Eilat

7 Issue 47 August SINAI VIOLENCE ESCALATES in April, a day before Passover. None caused any casualties. Before that, the most recent rocket firing in the Sinai area dates back to August Militant training ground In August, Israeli media cited security forces saying that Islamist militants from Sinai were carrying out rocket tests in the region in June. An article in Reuters repeated these allegations, and suggested that Gaza-based militants, who used to test fire rockets into the Negev desert or even the sea, are now using the Sinai to practice for assaults on Israel. Also, according to Maan News Agency Sinai tribes had warned the Egyptian government that jihadist groups have recently trained in areas near Sheikh Zuweid and Wadi al-amro. Both areas are located near the recent crossborder attacks, and are in relative proximity to the Gaza Strip, where several jihadist groups operate. Jihadist Groups make threats Since June, several previously unknown jihadist groups, ostensibly based in the Sinai, have made threats against Israel and the Egyptian regime in communiqués posted on jihadist forums. One such group is the Mujahidin Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem (MSC). In the group s first communiqué on 19 June, it claimed responsibility for a cross-border attack that killed an Israel contractor a day earlier near Beer Milka. Since then, it has vowed to continue attacking the Jews through ambushes and devices. On 30 July, a previously unheard of group calling itself Jund al-sharia made a series of demands in a communiqué posted onto Al-Fidaa, a jihadist forum run by Al- Qaeda s official courier and translation service. In the statement, the group said it was committed to implementing Islamic law throughout Egypt. The Jund al-sharia statement called on the infidel regime in Egypt to free jihadist prisoners, liberate Muslim sisters from the monasteries of the Crusaders, stop pursuing mujhadin in the Sinai, expel American forces which it claims are spying on Muslims for Israel, and implement Islamic law across the whole of Egypt. More recently, on 16 August, a group calling itself the Salafist-Jihadists of Sinai posted a statement to the Egyptian military on jihadist forums. Addressing Egypt s military command and political leadership it says you are dragging us into a battle that is not our battle, do not place yourselves as a barrier between us and our target, the Zionist enemy, for our weapons are not aimed at you and you know that. The announced formation of at least three unknown terrorist factions since June suggests the threat from radical jihadist factions in Sinai has deepened in recent months. Egypt deploys military In a bid to re-establish security, the Egyptian government launched a major counter-terrorism offensive in northern Sinai following the 5 August attack. In its aftermath, President Morsi sacked the country s top two military leaders and increased Egypt s military presence in the Sinai with armoured tanks and helicopters. The Israeli government agreed to allow Egyptian military aircraft into the region on 9 August in spite of the Camp David Agreement that stipulates that the Sinai should remain demilitarised. Since then, the Egyptian army has conducted a series of operations near Arish and Rafah and reportedly blocked 120 tunnels used for smuggling to and from Gaza. Since operations began, Egyptian security forces have clashed with suspected militants in northern Sinai and arrested and killed scores of terrorist suspects. So far, it is not clear whether additional security measures will be effective in countering the terrorism threat. Or indeed whether Sinai-based militants will seek to retaliate elsewhere in Egypt.

8 Issue 47 August TTP ATTACK ON AIRBASE A terrorist assault on a Pakistani airbase has sparked fresh concerns about the government s ability to protect the country s nuclear arsenal. On 16 August, nine heavily armed gunmen attacked a Pakistan Air Force (PAF) base at Kamra, around 60km northwest of Islamabad in Punjab province. The attack was the fourth on the airbase since Terrorists launched the raid in the early hours of Laylat al-qadr, the holiest night of Ramadan, at a time when many soldiers on the base were likely to be praying. Eight militants died in a fire fight inside the base while another blew himself up outside the compound. During the five hour assault, two soldiers were killed and a plane damaged. Officials said security forces personnel prevented the gunmen from attacking 30 other aircraft at the facility. The last attack on a well-defended military installation - the May 2011 assault on a naval air force base in Karachi - lasted 17 hours and saw 18 killed and 16 wounded. The lack of casualties at Kamra suggests the response was faster and more efficient than previous raids on military bases. The attack was the third on a highsecurity military installation in Pakistan since October 2009 and came less than two weeks after local media cited intelligence reports that the TTP was Kamra airbase planning attacks on a PAF base in Lahore before the end of Eid. TTP CLAIMS RESPONSIBILITY The TTP claimed responsibility shortly after the assault. Ehsanullah Ehsan, the TTP s main spokesperson, said the attack was to avenge the deaths of Osama bin Laden, the TTP Emir Baitullah Mehsud and other fighters who had been killed by the Pakistani security forces. Three days later, the authorities announced the arrest of the suspected commander of the attack. At the time of writing, police had arrested 16 people in connection with the assault, which included a retired Air Force worker. NUCLEAR CONCERNS The attack gained international attention over concerns that nuclear warheads were being stored at the base. Pakistani officials immediately denied this claim and ensured that the country s nuclear arsenal was safe and secure. Two days before the attack, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta expressed concerns that militant groups could gain possession of nuclear weapons if Pakistan did not control terrorism and cited the possibility of terrorists acquiring nuclear material as a main strategic risk concern of the US. The TTP has released contradictory statements regarding its position on the use of nuclear weapons. On 16 March, the leader of the TTP s Mohmand Agency branch said the group aims to use Pakistan s nuclear weapons and other resources for the betterment of the Muslim community and the survival of Islam. However, in May 2011, the TTP s main spokesperson said the group had no plan whatsoever to attack Pakistan s nuclear assets. And in 2008, the group s late leader said the TTP was not thinking of using a nuclear bomb as doing so would involve the killing of women and children, which Islam does not permit. FUTURE THREATS The incident is the latest indication that the TTP retains the capability to mount attacks on well-defended military installations across Pakistan. The TTP has since issued another threat against Pakistan s security forces. On 20 August, the group sent an to the media warning it had established a suicide bombers squad to attack soldiers in the event of an offensive in North Waziristan. The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported that the US and Pakistan might conduct a joint-military operation in Waziristan in coming weeks.

9 Issue 47 August ALGERIA: a NORTHward trend On 1 August, police reportedly thwarted a suicide attack at a police headquarters in Khenchela, approximately 500km southeast of Algiers. Twelve days later, another suicide attack was reportedly foiled in Tipaza governorate. The arrest came 15 days ahead of the one-year anniversary of AQIM s double suicide attack against Cherchell Military Academy on 28 August Two AQIM bombers killed 18 people and wounded 20 others when they attacked as cadets were breaking fast for Ramadan. the Algerian security forces. Another explanation, therefore, may be that rather than AQIM s northern branch mounting attacks further south, southern factions are mounting attacks further north. In the past six months terrorists have mounted two suicide attacks against national gendarmerie headquarters in southern and central Algeria. The attempted attacks were the latest in what appears to be a trend of terrorist activity moving north from the Sahara region, possibly driven by Sahara and Sahel based factions or offshoots of AQIM. The Plots According to Algerian media sources, on 1 August a man drove a car laden with six gas cylinders to the entrance of a police station. An officer guarding the facility reportedly saw the man trying to detonate a device inside the car and security forces detained him. Twelve days later, security forces reportedly detained a youth as he took pictures of Cherchell Military Academy in Tipaza governorate, 570km east of Khenchela. According to El Khabar, the suspect claimed he was conducting reconnaissance on the building for a suicide attack to be carried out by a group he called the Guardians of the Salafist Call. It is possible that the photographer was conducting reconnaissance on the military target ahead of an attack to coincide with the anniversary. The thwarted attempts seemed to suggest that security forces in Tipaza and Khenchela were on alert and had increased surveillance around police and military buildings. Desert factions head north The 2011 attack in Cherchell was the last major suicide bombing in northern Algeria, according to the Terrorism Tracker database. AQIM has not commented on the arrest, but it is possible that a recent spate of attacks in southern Algeria may have encouraged AQIM s northern branch to attempt a large-scale bombing in the north. However, the failed attack on 1 August is a considerable distance (300km southeast) from Kabylie, where AQIM s northern command seems to be largely contained in a stalemate situation with

10 Issue 47 August ALGERIA: a NORTHward trend AQIM s northern branch has not commented on the attack in any communiqués in the past month. Indeed, due to the geographical distance, and the lack of suicide attacks claimed by AQIM s northern branch in the past 12 months, it seems quite probable that a Sahara based AQIM faction attempted the attack. According to some sources, an AQIM faction reportedly led by a figure called Abu Zeid that has kidnapped foreigners and is active in the desert as well as Mali and Niger, has been active in this area in the past. Another suspect is the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MOJWA), a suspected AQIM splinter group, which has claimed attacks in southern Algeria in recent months. At present, there is currently little evidence to suggest it was involved in these attack attempts or that it operates so far north. A threat in the East Whatever the case, the attacks and alleged plots are part of what have been a growing number of major attack attempts in recent months outside of the AQIM stronghold in the Kabylie region. They also seem to point to an increasing threat in the central and northeastern provinces of Algeria. There have been two suicide car bombings over the last five months further south against National Gendarmerie headquarters. This indicates a growing threat of terrorism against hardened security targets in the region. It also suggests terrorist groups are increasing moving their operations north, having established rear bases in northern Mali. On 29 June, a suicide bomber rammed a vehicle laden with explosives into the National Gendarmerie headquarters in Ouargla, killing a soldier and injuring ten others. According to AFP, MOJWA claimed the attack in a text message sent to AFP correspondents in Mali. Three months earlier, on 3 March, MOJWA claimed a suicide car bombing against National Gendarmerie headquarters in Tamanrasset. That attack injured ten gendarmes and 14 civilians. Following the Ouargla suicide attack, Ennahar reported that seven cars laden with explosives were at large in the Sahara region. If that report was accurate, it is possible that the car used in the 1 August incident was one of the missing vehicles. No Western government has issued any new travel advice in light of these events, although most Western governments warn of a high threat of terrorism in Algeria. The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office reissued Affiliates of AQIM in Mali its travel advice on 26 July and warned attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places frequented by expatriates and foreign travellers, such as restaurants, hotels and shopping centres. AQIM during Ramadan What is not clear is what is driving this apparent northerly trend. One explanation may be that AQIM or other factions have benefited from a safe haven in Mali and are better able to push their operations further north. Another could be that they had been seeking to increase their operations in Ramadan. This may also explain why there have been no further reported plots since the Cherchell incident. In recent years, AQIM s operational tempo has increased significantly during Ramadan, which jihadists call the month of jihad. But during Ramadan this year, the tempo of known or suspected terrorist operations increased only slightly according to the Terrorism Tracker database. During Ramadan last August, we recorded the greatest frequency of attacks in Algeria in any five-week period. But this year we recorded only nine attacks which was a 25% decrease on last year. The failure of AQIM s northern branch to mount a major attack or substantially increase its attack frequency in Algeria may be more a lack of capability than intent. Improved and sustained counterterrorism and security operations by the Algerian military and police, particularly in the northern and central provinces, seem to have suppressed AQIM s northern branch. At present, the greatest terrorism threat in the country appears to come from AQIM s Sahara and Sahel based factions, which may be operating almost independently from the AQIM s central command in the north, and the ostensible AQIM splinter group MOJWA.

11 Issue 47 August BOMBING IN SOUTHERN TURKEY On 20 August, a truck bomb killed nine people and injured nearly 70 others in Gaziantep, a Turkish city 40km from the Syrian border. The truck was parked at a bus stop near a police station. Though there was no immediate claim of responsibility, officials in Ankara immediately blamed the PKK the Kurdish separatist group that has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state for over two decades. The PKK issued a statement denying responsibility for the attack, but senior government officials said their denial should be treated as a smokescreen. Some findings of a police investigation were leaked to the press days later, and according to the report, members of the PKK drove the truck to its target. In March, the PKK ostensibly allied with the regime in Damascus threatened an escalation of violence in Turkey if Ankara sent troops across the border into Syria. This threat is significant because Ankara recently called for a UN-mandated buffer zone in northern Syria. Turkish troops would likely play a role in securing such an entity. The PKK opposes foreign intervention in Syria because it has made gains from the chaos and power vacuum in the north. With the apparent sanction of the Syrian regime, a PKK offshoot now controls a handful of towns in northern Syria and is running its own security checkpoints. Though there are moderate elements among them, Kurds in Syria vow to fight to preserve their newfound autonomy. In this context, the PKK may have mounted the attack in Gaziantep to warn Turkey against crossing the border and potentially threatening the new power structure in northern Syria. State-sponsored terrorism? In the wake of the attack, the Turkish deputy prime minister revealed that Turkey was investigating the possible involvement of Syrian or Iranian state actors. If Ankara uncovered evidence pointing to Tehran or Damascus, it would deepen existing regional rivalries along sectarian lines. However, Turkish officials have since downplayed the possibility of Syrian or Iranian involvement, which suggests concrete links have not been found. Bombing in Gaziantep Possible link to Syria The proximity of Gaziantep to the Syrian border suggests the attack was linked to the deepening civil conflict in Syria. Turkey has publicly backed the uprising against Bashar Al-Assad, and officials in Ankara have accused him of providing material support to the PKK in retaliation.

12 ATTACKS BY SECTOR Issue 47 August agriculture On 20 August, suspected New People s Army (NPA) rebels attacked a Dole Stanfilco banana plantation in Cotabato province in the Philippines. The rebels set fire to a farm vehicle and fired gunshots at other equipment. According to local officials, the attack took place after the plantation owners refused to meet demands for protection money. NPA rebels have previously carried out similar attacks after their extortion demands were not met. construction On 13 August, suspected PKK militants kidnapped 11 workers from an airport construction site in the Hakkari province of Turkey. The militants set fire to several supply trucks and a construction vehicle before escaping with their hostages. Last month, the PKK killed a worker and wounded two others when they attacked another construction site in Hakkari. electricity On 15 August, an anti-personnel landmine planted by FARC militants killed two engineers and their guide in Tumaco in southwestern Colombia. The attack followed a series of attacks against power infrastructure in the area. FARC guerrillas carried out several attacks against electrical pylons on 10 August, which left Tumaco city and surrounding areas without power for several days. The engineers were repairing one of electrical pylons the militants had sabotaged when the landmine attack took place. Suspected TTP militants kidnapped eight construction workers from the Gormal Zam Dam project in South Waziristan in Pakistan on 15 August. The militants kidnapped the workers as they were returning to Tank city from the hydroelectric power station. Militant activity has previously delayed the project; work on the dam was suspended in 2004 after militants kidnapped two Chinese engineers. oil and gas Suspected Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants sabotaged a section of a gas pipeline in Shabwa province of Yemen on 21 August. The pipeline supplies a liquefied natural gas export terminal owned by Total. Militants have targeted the pipeline several times this year in retaliation for the deaths of AQAP members in military operations. On 17 August, unidentified insurgents detonated two car bombs outside the offices of North Oil Company in Kirkuk city in Iraq. The attacks were part of a series of four bombings across the city which left nine people dead. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, however the Al-Qaeda affiliated group Islamic State of Iraq has carried out similar attacks previously. On 6 August, suspected PKK militants bombed the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in the Mardin province of Turkey, near the Syrian border. The attack started a fire on the pipeline and interrupted the flow of oil from Iraq. Militants have repeatedly attacked the pipeline since Another attack on the pipeline in Mardin last month also disrupted the oil supply. On 5 August, unidentified militants set fire to two NATO oil tankers in the Khuzdar district of Balochistan in southwestern Pakistan. Militants have Source: repeatedly targeted NATO vehicles following the reopening of supply routes through Pakistan in July. mining On 8 August, suspected FARC militants destroyed a section of railway serving the Cerrejon coal mine in La Guajira department in Colombia. The militants detonated explosives on the line which connects the mine to La Guajira s main export centre. The attack was the second time militants had sabotaged the mine within five days. FARC has increased its attacks against Colombia s energy infrastructure over the last three months.

13 ATTACKS BY SECTOR Issue 47 August retail On 16 August, terrorists detonated a car bomb in a busy shopping centre in the town of Kut in Iraq, killing at least five and injuring more than 70. The attack targeted shoppers preparing for Eid festivities. No group claimed responsibility for the bombing, which was part of a wave of attacks across the country. The Islamic State of Iraq has previously claimed responsibility for large coordinated attacks in Iraq. Also on 16 August, unidentified militants detonated a homemade bomb outside a wine and liquor store in Nazran city in the Russian Republic of Ingushetia. No group claimed responsibility for the attack, but Islamist militants have previously carried out attacks against shops in the region which they consider violate their interpretation of Islam. Misrata in eight weeks. In May, an Islamist terrorist faction calling itself the Omar Abdul Rahman Brigades called on the ICRC to close all its offices in Libya. media On 31 July, unidentified gunmen shot and killed a comedian and radio presenter in Mogadishu, Somalia. The man was known for parodying Al-Shabaab, and had received death threats from the group before the attack. Al-Shabaab frequently target media figures in the city; on 12 August a gunman killed a veteran journalist after waiting for him at his car. financial On 28 August, a bomb exploded outside a National Bank of Greece branch in Athens in the early hours of the morning. The device damaged an ATM but caused no casualties. In the past three years, anarchists have conducted a series of attacks against financial institutions in Athens. TerrorismTracker database and live threat map Terrorism Tracker is a comprehensive global database of terrorist attacks and plots. Each terrorist event is geo-tagged to allow its actual location to be viewed using the Google Maps interface. Terrorism Tracker is updated daily, with new events displayed as they occur. Terrorism Tracker will become an essential part of your threat monitoring activities. Access is available free of charge to all clients of Aon s Counter Terrorism team or by subscription from Janusian. For further information about access to Terrorism Tracker please speak to your Aon broker or visit ABOUT AON Aon has developed a unique approach to terrorism risk management, combining expert consulting with the most appropriate risk transfer solutions. Aon s specialist Crisis Management division provides integrated risk mitigation, management and transfer solutions against terrorism, political risk, kidnap for ransom, extortion, product contamination and recall. Aon is the leading global provider of risk management services, insurance brokerage, and human capital consulting, delivering distinctive client value through its 59,000 colleagues and 500 offices in more than 120 countries. Aon is regulated by the Financial Services Authority in respect of insurance mediation activities only. FP ref: ABOUT RISK ADVISORY NGO On 5 August, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced the suspension of aid operations in Benghazi and Misrata, following a bomb and RPG attack on an ICRC residential building in Misrata. The incident was the second attack against international aid targets in Libya in a week. It was also the third attack on the ICRC in Libya in ten weeks and the second on the ICRC headquarters in Source: Risk Advisory provides security consultancy and services to multinational companies and other large organisations. We have particular expertise in the assessment and management of terrorism risk and in assisting clients to develop suitable security strategies. The Risk Advisory team combines intelligence analysts and security specialists, who work in close cooperation to ensure that our advice is appropriate to the threats our clients encounter and their business needs. crisismanagement@aon.co.uk security-intelligence@riskadvisory.net