Muhlenberg College/Morning Call. Lehigh Valley/Trump/Presidential Election Poll

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1 Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Lehigh Valley/Trump/Presidential Election Poll The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 416 registered voters in Lehigh and Northampton Counties in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between September 17 and 22, Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (297) and cell phones (119) by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) in Allentown, Pennsylvania on the Institute s Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. Of the 119 cell phone respondents 98 had no landlines in their household. With a randomly selected sample of 416 respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample sizes, such as those for voters from one political party, will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues could introduce error or bias into survey results. The sample data has been weighted by gender and party to reflect those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Secretary of State for Lehigh and Northampton Counties. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of adult Pennsylvanians both land lines and cell phones are called up to 5 times. The response rate for this survey as calculated using the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) RRII formula is 13%. Due to rounding the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick of the MCIPO is conjunction with the staff of the Morning Call. The survey was funded exclusively by the Morning Call and the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at or Dr. Borick at INSTRUMENT And FREQUENCY REPORT Q1: What is your current age? (Open Ended) (Coded into Categories) % % % 65 and Over..38%

2 Q2: Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a? (READ LIST) 1. Democrat.53% 2. Republican...37% 3. Independent/Other Party.. 10% Q3: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable. (ROTATE) First, Hillary Clinton Favorable 35% 58% 7% 19% Unfavorable 55% 30% 88% 62% Neutral/Not Sure 10% 12% 5% 19% Haven t Heard Of Her 0% 0% 0% 0% Q4: Next, Donald Trump? Favorable 28% 13% 42% 50% Unfavorable 60% 79% 39% 35% Neutral/Not Sure 13% 8% 20% 15% Haven t Heard Of Him 0% 0% 0% 0% Q5 Jeb Bush. Favorable 25% 19% 33% 29% Unfavorable 52% 57% 42% 57% Neutral/Not Sure 23% 23% 24% 14% Haven t Heard Of Him <1% 0% 1% 0% Q6: Bernie Sanders? Favorable 33% 46% 11% 40% Unfavorable 41% 25% 66% 35% Neutral/Not Sure 20% 21% 17% 20% Haven t Heard Of Her 7% 8% 6% 5%

3 Q7: Now, if the 2016 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) Clinton 41% 69% 7% 19% Trump 40% 13% 72% 62% Neither/Other (Vol) 18% 17% 20% 19% Not Sure (Vol) 1% 2% 1% 0% Q8: And if the race was between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) Trump 36% 13% 64% 57% Sanders 45% 68% 16% 38% Neither/Other (Vol) 16% 17% 17% 5% Not Sure (Vol) 2% 2% 4% 0% Q9: And if the race was between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) Clinton 45% 70% 8% 45% Bush 46% 22% 79% 55% Neither/Other (Vol) 7% 6% 11% 5% Not Sure (Vol) 3% 3% 3% 0% Q10: And if the race was between Hillary Clinton and Carly Fiorina who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) Clinton 42% 66% 8% 45% Fiorina 39% 16% 70% 50% Neither/Other (Vol) 13% 11% 18% 5% Not Sure (Vol) 6% 7% 4% 0% Q11: And if the race was between Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) Clinton 41% 68% 4% 33% Rubio 48% 21% 85% 48% Neither/Other (Vol) 8% 7% 5% 19% Not Sure (Vol) 4% 4% 5% 0%

4 Q12: And if the race was between Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED) Clinton 41% 67% 5% 40% Carson 47% 21% 82% 50% Neither/Other (Vol) 6% 4% 8% 10% Not Sure (Vol) 6% 8% 5% 0% Q13: Vice President Joe Biden is considering running for president in Do you think he should run for president in 2016 or not run? Run 46% 49% 46% 40% Not Run 44% 39% 46% 55% Not Sure (Vol) 10% 12% 9% 5% Next I m going to read you a list of statements. For each statement I read please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the statement. First: Q14: Climate Change is a hoax Strongly Agree 21% 11% 33% 31% Somewhat Agree 10% 7% 17% 6% Somewhat Disagree 15% 9% 25% 11% Strongly Disagree 51% 71% 22% 53% Not Sure 3% 2% 4% 0% Q15: In order to pay down the national debt there should be a one-time 14% tax on wealthy Americans. Strongly Agree 25% 31% 18% 22% Somewhat Agree 24% 27% 20% 28% Somewhat Disagree 12% 18% 8% 0% Strongly Disagree 29% 19% 43% 33% Not Sure 9% 7% 11% 17%

5 Q16: In order to effectively fight ISIS boots on the ground are necessary. Strongly Agree 40% 25% 59% 50% Somewhat Agree 18% 18% 20% 11% Somewhat Disagree 8% 9% 5% 6% Strongly Disagree 23% 33% 9% 22% Not Sure 11% 15% 7% 11% Q17: The United States should build a great wall on the southern border and have Mexico pay for it. Strongly Agree 26% 17% 35% 44% Somewhat Agree 9% 8% 11% 11% Somewhat Disagree 13% 8% 20% 22% Strongly Disagree 48% 62% 32% 22% Not Sure 4% 5% 3% 0% Q18. The nuclear deal with Iran gives Iran a lot and the United States gets nothing. Strongly Agree 42% 26% 62% 50% Somewhat Agree 11% 7% 15% 11% Somewhat Disagree 12% 20% 4% 0% Strongly Disagree 23% 32% 8% 33% Not Sure 13% 15% 11% 6% Q19: What is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Donald Trump? (Open Ended Coded into Categories) Arrogant/Abrasive 29% Jerk/Idiot 13% Joke/Clown 12% Businessman 7% Rich/Successful 5% Honest 4% Entertainer/Showman 4% Flamboyant/Flashy 3% Smart 3% Strong 1% Generally Positive 2% Generally Negative 3% Other 13%

6 Next I m going to read you a series of claims made by Donald Trump. For each of Trumps claims that I read pleases indicate if you thing the claim is completely true, partially true or completely false. First: (Rotate) Q20: That he has become pro-life after years of being pro-choice Completely True 13% 11% 21% 0% Partially True 23% 13% 32% 44% Completely False 38% 48% 25% 39% Not Sure (Vol) 26% 29% 23% 17% Q21: There are 30 million illegal immigrants in the United States Completely True 37% 29% 45% 44% Partially True 23% 23% 25% 11% Completely False 20% 26% 12% 17% Not Sure (Vol) 20% 22% 18% 28% Q22: The United States is the most highly taxed nation in the world. Completely True 30% 19% 40% 61% Partially True 11% 10% 11% 11% Completely False 44% 53% 37% 17% Not Sure (Vol) 15% 18% 12% 11% Q23: John McCain has done nothing to help veterans. Completely True 10% 8% 11% 22% Partially True 10% 7% 17% 6% Completely False 65% 71% 57% 61% Not Sure (Vol) 15% 15% 15% 11%

7 Now I would like to read a few descriptions of Donald Trump. For each description I read please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with the description of Donald Trump. First: (Rotate) Q24: Trump speaks the truth. Strongly Agree 25% 10% 39% 50% Somewhat Agree 23% 17% 31% 33% Somewhat Disagree 12% 11% 14% 6% Strongly Disagree 39% 60% 15% 11% Not Sure 1% 1% 1% 0% Q25: Trump only cares about himself. Strongly Agree 42% 56% 27% 17% Somewhat Agree 22% 22% 22% 33% Somewhat Disagree 13% 11% 16% 6% Strongly Disagree 21% 9% 33% 39% Not Sure 1% 2% 1% 6% Q26: Trump is a real conservative Strongly Agree 15% 12% 19% 22% Somewhat Agree 19% 12% 23% 39% Somewhat Disagree 17% 17% 15% 22% Strongly Disagree 40% 47% 34% 17% Not Sure 9% 11% 8% 0% Q27. Trump can t be trusted. Strongly Agree 38% 52% 25% 11% Somewhat Agree 20% 19% 18% 32% Somewhat Disagree 15% 13% 15% 26% Strongly Disagree 23% 10% 38% 32% Not Sure 5% 6% 4% 0%

8 Q28: Trump can be elected President of the United States Strongly Agree 33% 22% 47% 44% Somewhat Agree 25% 29% 18% 33% Somewhat Disagree 11% 10% 15% 6% Strongly Disagree 29% 39% 16% 17% Not Sure 2% 1% 4% 0% Next I m going to read a list of functions that a President often performs in office. For each function that I mention please tell me if you think that Donald Trump would be excellent, good, fair or poor at performing that function. First: (ROTATE) Q29. Serving as commander in chief Excellent 9% 2% 15% 24% Good 22% 11% 37% 29% Fair 21% 23% 18% 24% Poor 47% 63% 27% 24% Not Sure 1% 1% 3% 0% Q30. Negotiating with hostile nations Excellent 14% 3% 28% 22% Good 19% 14% 25% 17% Fair 18% 16% 18% 28% Poor 48% 64% 28% 33% Not Sure 1% 3% 0% 0% Q31. Working with Congress to get things done Excellent 7% 2% 15% 6% Good 20% 13% 29% 22% Fair 28% 26% 29% 33% Poor 43% 57% 25% 33% Not Sure 2% 2% 1% 6%

9 Q32.Creating jobs Excellent 21% 10% 33% 33% Good 30% 29% 31% 33% Fair 25% 27% 22% 17% Poor 23% 30% 13% 17% Not Sure 2% 3% 1% 0% Q33. Improving economic conditions for the middle class Excellent 20% 11% 29% 39% Good 22% 14% 33% 17% Fair 16% 16% 17% 11% Poor 39% 54% 18% 33% Not Sure 3% 5% 3% 0% Q34. Dealing with illegal immigration Excellent 21% 11% 32% 33% Good 17% 11% 19% 33% Fair 17% 14% 22% 17% Poor 44% 61% 25% 17% Not Sure 2% 2% 1% 0% Q35. Improving race relations Excellent 4% 1% 6% 17% Good 16% 7% 28% 22% Fair 21% 18% 25% 28% Poor 55% 71% 37% 33% Not Sure 3% 3% 4% 0%

10 DEMOGRAPHICS Q36: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)? 1. White/Caucasian 86% 2. African-American.. 4% 3. Hispanic. 6% 4. Latino. 1% 5. Asian.. 1% 6. Native American 0% 7. Mixed race 3% 8. or other..0% 9. Not Sure (Volunteered) <1% Q37: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)? 1. Catholic 34% 2. Protestant.. 37% 3. Jewish 2% 4. Muslim.. <1% 5. Hindu. <1% 6. Other Religion (Including agnostic).. 18% 7. or Atheist... 7% 8. Not Sure (Volunteered).. 1% Q38: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST) 1. Less than High School. 1% 2. High School Graduate..25% 3. Some college or technical school 22% 4. College graduate (4 yr only).32% 5. Graduate or professional degree...19% Q39: Which of the following best describes your political beliefs? (READ LIST) 1.Very Conservative..18% 2. Somewhat Conservative 25% 3. Moderate 30% 4. Somewhat Liberal..16% 5. Very Liberal 10% 6. Not Sure (Volunteered). 1%.

11 Q40: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)? 1. Under $20,000.9% 2. $20,000-$40,000 17% 3. $40,000-$60,000 18%. 4. $60,000-$80,000 12% 5. $80,000-$100, % 6. Over $100,000 24%. 7. Not Sure (Volunteered) 4% Q41: Thank you for your help with the survey. We appreciate your time. (GENDER DETERMINED BY VOICE RECOGNITION) 1. Male..48% 2. Female..52%,

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