National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1955 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report December 08-11, 2017 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track 78 60% Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 POL1_4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve 44 23% Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 265 4% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 99 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 99 5% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues 367 9% Health Care Issues 37 9% Senior s Issues 298 5% Women s Issues 82 4% Education Issues 9 6% Energy Issues 70 4% Other 88 5% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 79 40% Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_5 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL2 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL3_1 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority 40 2 % Not too important a priority 73 9% Should not be done 92 0% Dont know/no opinion 66 8% POL3_4 POL3_5 POL3_6 POL3_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority % An important, but lower priority 376 9% Not too important a priority 3 4 6% Should not be done 35 8% Dont know/no opinion 97 0% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 90 0% Should not be done 286 5% Dont know/no opinion 2 0 % How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a tax reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 235 2% Should not be done 83 9% Dont know/no opinion 203 0% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority 68 35% Not too important a priority 232 2% Should not be done 64 3% Dont know/no opinion 290 5% Page 3

4 POL3_8 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 273 4% Should not be done 06 5% Dont know/no opinion 255 3% POL3_9 POL3_10 POL3_11 POL4_1 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 328 7% Should not be done 48 8% Dont know/no opinion 98 0% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 364 9% Not too important a priority 289 5% Should not be done % Dont know/no opinion 8 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 3 6% Should not be done 288 5% Dont know/no opinion 2 9 % How much have you seen, read, or heard about each of the following? Legislation introduced by Republicans in Congress that makes widespread changes to the U.S. tax system A lot % Some % Not much 294 5% Nothing at all 265 4% Page 4

5 POL4_4 How much have you seen, read, or heard about each of the following? Senator Al Franken announcing his resignation from the Senate amid allegations of sexual misconduct A lot % Some % Not much 267 4% Nothing at all 230 2% POL4_5 POL4_6 POL5 POL6 POL7 How much have you seen, read, or heard about each of the following? The United States recognizing Jerusalem as Israel s capital A lot % Some % Not much 276 4% Nothing at all 276 4% How much have you seen, read, or heard about each of the following? Michael Flynn pleading guilty to lying to the FBI A lot % Some % Not much 3 6% Nothing at all 255 3% Based on what you know, do you support or oppose legislation, introduced by Republicans in Congress, that makes widespread changes to the U.S. tax system? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 267 4% Strongly oppose % Dont Know/No Opinion 367 9% And based on what you know, do you believe this legislation would cause the total amount of taxes you pay, including federal, state, and local, to... Increase % Decrease % Stay about the same 369 9% Dont Know/No Opinion % Generally, how willing are you to support a candidate for public office if you agree with the candidate on issues, but dislike him or her personally? Very willing % Somewhat willing % Not too willing 294 5% Not willing at all 99 5% Dont Know/No Opinion 300 5% Page 5

6 POL8 When casting your vote, which of the following is more important? A candidates character % A candidates policy positions % Dont Know/No Opinion 295 5% POL9_1 POL9_4 POL9_5 POL9_6 POL9_7 each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Bill Clinton Credible % Not credible 36 8% Dont Know/No Opinion 329 7% each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Roy Moore Credible % Not credible % Dont Know/No Opinion % each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Kevin Spacey Credible % Not credible 372 9% Dont Know/No Opinion % each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Harvey Weinstein Credible 03 56% Not credible 350 8% Dont Know/No Opinion % each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Bill OReilly Credible 89 46% Not credible % Dont Know/No Opinion 67 34% Page 6

7 POL9_8 each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Mark Halperin Credible 52 27% Not credible 248 3% Dont Know/No Opinion 87 6 % POL9_9 POL9_10 POL9_11 POL9_12 POL9_13 each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Donald Trump Credible % Not credible % Dont Know/No Opinion % each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Charlie Rose Credible % Not credible 32 6% Dont Know/No Opinion % each of the following to be credible, or not credible? John Conyers Credible % Not credible 26 3% Dont Know/No Opinion % each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Al Franken Credible % Not credible % Dont Know/No Opinion % each of the following to be credible, or not credible? Matt Lauer Credible % Not credible 380 9% Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 7

8 POL10 As you may know, Alabama Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore has been accused of sexual misconduct by a number of women, including an allegation of a sexual relationship with a 14-year old minor. If Roy Moore wins his election, do you believe the United States Senate should expel him from Congress, or not? Should expel him 84 6 % Should not expel him 333 7% Dont Know/No Opinion % POL11 POL12 POL13 POL14 As you may know, the Republican National Committee has reinstated its support for Alabama Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore and has contributed to his campaign. Do you believe this was the right thing to do or the wrong thing to do? Right thing % Wrong thing % Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, the Republican National Committee has reinstated its support for Alabama Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore and has contributed to his campaign. Does knowing this make you more or less likely to support the Republican National Committee in future elections, or does it not change your mind either way? More likely 2 9 % Less likely % Does not change my mind either way % Dont Know/No Opinion 38 20% Generally, who do you believe is more responsible for continued con ict between Israel and the Palestinians? Israel 58 8% The Palestinians % Both equally % Dont Know/No Opinion % In thinking about the next few years, how likely is there to be a peace agreement reached between Israel and the Palestinians? Very likely 2 6% Somewhat likely 229 2% Not too likely % Not likely at all % Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 8

9 POL15_1 As you may know, the United States recently recognized Jerusalem as Israel s capital and announced plans to relocate the US Embassy there. Do you support or oppose each of the following? The United States recognizing Jerusalem as Israel s capital Strongly support % Somewhat support 379 9% Somewhat oppose 244 2% Strongly oppose 277 4% Dont Know/No Opinion % POL15_4 POL16 POL17 POL18 As you may know, the United States recently recognized Jerusalem as Israel s capital and announced plans to relocate the US Embassy there. Do you support or oppose each of the following? The United States relocating the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem Strongly support % Somewhat support 373 9% Somewhat oppose 264 3% Strongly oppose 296 5% Dont Know/No Opinion % And, why do you most oppose the United States recognizing Jerusalem as Israel s capital? (N=521) It will incite violence and unrest in the region 42 8 % Jerusalem is not the rightful capital of Israel 49 9% Dont Know/No Opinion 5 0% As you may know, the United States recently recognized Jerusalem as Israel s capital and announced plans to relocate the US Embassy there. Do you believe this move by the United States will do more to help or more to hurt the prospect of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, or will it not make much difference either way? More to help 328 7% More to hurt % Will not make much difference either way 49 25% Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, the United States recently recognized Jerusalem as Israel s capital and announced plans to relocate the US Embassy there. Do you believe this move by the United States will make the region more stable, less stable, or will it not make much difference either way? Much more stable 2 5 % Somewhat more stable 244 2% Somewhat less stable 343 8% Much less stable 370 9% Will not make much difference either way 346 8% Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 9

10 POL19 As you may know, the U.S. Department of Justice has appointed a special prosecutor to investigate any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign. Based on what you know, do you believe the special prosecutors investigation has been fair or not? Yes, it has been fair % No, it has not been fair % Dont Know/No Opinion % POL20 POL21 POL22_1 POL22_4 Do you believe President Trump should re the special prosecutor in charge of the investigation, or not? Yes, should re 370 9% No, should not re % Dont Know/No Opinion % As you may know, it was recently revealed that an FBI agent investigating coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign was removed from the investigation after he exchanged anti-trump text messages with another former investigator. Does knowing this give you more or less con dence in the investigation, or does it not change your mind either way? Much more con dence 2 9 % Somewhat more con dence 207 % Somewhat less con dence 272 4% Much less con dence 352 8% Does not change my mind either way % Dont Know/No Opinion 368 9% Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Donald Trump Very likely 70 36% Somewhat likely 256 3% Not too likely 203 0% Not likely at all % Dont Know/No Opinion % Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Jared Kushner Very likely 55 28% Somewhat likely 292 5% Not too likely 95 0% Not likely at all 2 6 % Dont Know/No Opinion 70 36% Page 10

11 POL22_5 Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Donald Trump Jr. Very likely % Somewhat likely 295 5% Not too likely 2 8 % Not likely at all 326 7% Dont Know/No Opinion % POL22_6 POL22_7 POL22_8 POL22_9 Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Jeff Sessions Very likely % Somewhat likely 338 7% Not too likely 2 % Not likely at all 236 2% Dont Know/No Opinion % Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Michael Flynn Very likely % Somewhat likely 339 7% Not too likely 68 9% Not likely at all 45 7% Dont Know/No Opinion % Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Paul Manafort Very likely % Somewhat likely 298 5% Not too likely 7 9% Not likely at all 29 7% Dont Know/No Opinion % Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Kellyanne Conway Very likely 375 9% Somewhat likely 290 5% Not too likely 247 3% Not likely at all 304 6% Dont Know/No Opinion % Page 11

12 POL22_10 Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Reince Priebus Very likely 339 7% Somewhat likely 298 5% Not too likely 2 2 % Not likely at all 98 0% Dont Know/No Opinion % POL22_11 POL22_12 POL23 POL24 Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Ivanka Trump Very likely % Somewhat likely 289 5% Not too likely 308 6% Not likely at all % Dont Know/No Opinion % Based on what you know, how likely is it that each of the following acted improperly when it comes to any alleged coordination between the Russian government and Donald Trumps 2016 presidential campaign? Mike Pence Which of the following best applies to you? Very likely % Somewhat likely 293 5% Not too likely 274 4% Not likely at all % Dont Know/No Opinion % I currently work outside the home % I do not work outside the home, but I have worked 377 9% outside the home for a duration of more than one year I do not work outside the home % Dont Know/No Opinion 05 5% Have you experienced or witnessed sexual harassment in the workplace? (N=1,323) Yes % No % Don t Know/No Opinion 4 3% Page 12

13 POL25 Generally, how true do you nd allegations of sexual harassment you may have read about recently in the media? All are true 95 0% Most are true % About half are true and half are false % Most are false 54 8% All are false 0 % Don t Know/No Opinion 229 2% indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 83 43% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Paul Ryan Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 13

14 indpresapp_7 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 82 42% indpresapp_8 indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 74 38% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 372 9% If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 08 6% If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 04 53% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 283 4% Page 14

15 indpresapp_11 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 264 3% indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 376 9% If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Jared Kushner Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 15

16 indpresapp_15 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Steve Bannon Total Favorable 345 8% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_16 indpresapp_17 indpresapp_18 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Hope Hicks Total Favorable 258 3% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Gary Cohn Total Favorable 265 4% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 25 64% If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 16

17 indpresapp_19 indpresapp_20 If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Jeff Sessions Total Favorable 42 22% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 84 43% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 17

18 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 284 5% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 34 7% PID/Gender: Ind Women 338 7% PID/Gender: Rep Men 286 5% PID/Gender: Rep Women 32 6% xdemtea Tea Party: Supporter % Tea Party: Not Supporter % N 943 xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 730 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 236 2% xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k 7 57% Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % Continued on next page Page 18

19 National Tracking Poll #171203, December, 2017 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 75 9% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am. 25 3% demraceother Ethnicity: Other 2 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic % Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 337 7% N 730 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 46 2% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 097 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian % N 950 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 6 6% Employ: Self-Employed 75 9% Employ: Homemaker 95 0% Employ: Student 62 3% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 46 7% Employ: Other 62 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 360 8% Military HH: No % xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track 78 60% Continued on next page Page 19

20 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Q172 Strongly Approve 44 23% Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 265 4% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 99 5% xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security 367 9% #1 Issue: Health Care 37 9% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 298 5% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 82 4% #1 Issue: Education 9 6% #1 Issue: Energy 70 4% #1 Issue: Other 88 5% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Republican Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 2 % N 633 xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 04 5% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 953 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 357 8% 4-Region: Midwest 46 24% 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West 4 2 % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 20

21 National Tracking Poll #171203, December, 2017 Page 21