Survey of US Voters Opinions on Religious Freedom Report-July 30, 2015

Transcription

1 Survey of US Voters Opinions on Religious Freedom Report-July 30, 2015

2 Methodology Online survey of US Voters Survey was conducted June 29-July 6, respondents, overall margin of error of percentage points Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100% Report - July 30 2

3 Religious Freedom Segmentation

4 Common Sense Solution Most voters believe there is a common sense solution to protect both religious freedoms and gay rights. I believe there can be a common sense solution that both protects religious freedom and protects gay and lesbian couples from discrimination. Agree 71% Somewhat 3 Strongly [VALUE] Disagree 20% Somewhat Strongly [VALUE] Don't know Agree Disagree Don't know Q31. Please indicate whether you agree or disagree Report - July 30 4

5 Protecting Liberties Forced Choice Most voters think both protecting religious liberties and protecting the rights of gays and lesbians are important. Protecting religious liberties 31% Protecting the rights of gays and lesbians 8% Both are important 53% Neither are important 3% Don't know 5% Q37. Which issue do you think is more important? (RANDOMIZE 1-2) Report - July 30 5

6 Wedding Photographer Refusal More than 80% of voters believe a photographer should have the right to decline services based on religious beliefs. Suppose a Christian wedding photographer has deeply held religious beliefs opposing same-sex marriage. If a same-sex couple wanted to hire that photographer for their wedding ceremony, should the photographer have the right to say no? Yes 82% No Don't know 8% Report - July 30 6

7 Religious Freedom Segmentation Center: Choose Both on the forced choice AND agree on a common sense solution Left: Not in the center group; More important to protect gay/lesbian rights on the forced choice; OR Both/Neither/Don t know on forced choice AND say photographer cannot refuse. Right: Not in the center group; More important to protect religious freedom on the forced choice; OR Both/Neither/Don t know on forced choice AND say photographer can refuse. Left Center Other Right 45% 3% 42% Segmentation combining responses to religious freedom questions July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 7

8 Federal Role by Segmentation Across attitudinal groups, voters disagree that government should interfere in religion. It should be up to the federal government to determine what constitutes legitimate religious beliefs. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 11% 79% Left () 17% 15% 68% Center (45%) 12% 4% 84% Right (42%) 8% 11% 81% Report - July 30 8

9 Providing Services by Segmentation Even on the left of the debate, few believe government should mandate services. Federal and state governments should be able to require by law a private citizen to provide a service or provide their private property for an event that is contrary to their religious beliefs. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 18% 14% 68% Left () 35% 21% 44% Center (45%) 19% 8% 73% Right (42%) 14% 13% 73% Report - July 30 9

10 Wedding Photographer Refusal by Segmentation The vast majority of the middle group think a photographer should be allowed to refuse. Suppose a Christian wedding photographer has deeply held religious beliefs opposing same-sex marriage. If a same-sex couple wanted to hire that photographer for their wedding ceremony, should the photographer have the right to say no? Yes Don't know No Overall 82% 8% Left () 40% 50% Center (45%) 84% 11% Right (42%) 97% 2% 1% Report - July 30 10

11 Role of Military Chaplains by Segmentation Most in the center group feel the military should not interfere with chaplains. Yes, to a great extent Yes, to some extent Yes, to a minor extent Don't know No, never Overall 13% 12% 17% 53% Left () 22% 19% 20% 29% Center (45%) 5% 14% 14% 12% 54% Right (42%) 7% 15% 61% Q36. Recently there has been controversy over the role of chaplains in the US military. Do you think the military should be able to restrict the private conversations, counselling, prayer and teaching of military chaplains? Report - July 30 11

12 Segmentation Detail: Demographics and Attitudes

13 Religious Freedom Segmentation: Demographics Voters who fall in the center are slightly more likely to be Democrats or Independents and live outside the South. Subgroup Overall Center Men <50 24% 23% Men % 23% Women <50 24% 24% Women % 30% Democrat/Lean 43% 4 Independent/Other 1 19% Republican/Lean 40% 35% White/Other 77% 78% African-American 14% 13% Latino/Hispanic 9% 9% Northeast 18% 20% Midwest 24% 23% South 37% 32% West 21% 24% July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 13

14 Religious Freedom Segmentation: Demographics Voters who fall in the center are more likely to be college graduates, less likely to be Evangelicals, and attend church less frequently. Demographic Overall Center Non-College Grad 55% 50% College Grad 45% 50% Attend church regularly 30% 2 Attend, but not regularly 27% 29% Do not attend/(dk/ref) 43% 45% Evangelical Protestant 25% 17% Other Protestant 22% 27% Catholic 23% 24% Other Religion 8% Agnostic/Atheist 7% 8% Non-Religious/Refused 17% July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 14

15 Religious Affiliation by Segmentation Voters in the center group are slightly less likely to be evangelical, and otherwise close to average on religious affiliation. Born Again/ Evangelical Other Protestants Catholic Other Religion Atheist/ Agnostic No Preference/ Refuse Overall 25% 22% 23% 7% 17% Left () 4% 13% 19% 28% 2 Center (45%) 17% 27% 24% 8% 8% 1 Right (42%) 40% 17% 25% 3% 2% 13% July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 15

16 Church Attendance by Segmentation Voters in the center group are also average on church attendance. Regularly attend church Attend, not regularly Do not attend/ref Overall 30% 27% 43% Left () 11% 17% 72% Center (45%) 2 29% 45% Right (42%) 40% 27% 33% July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 16

17 Spirituality by Segmentation Voters on the left of the debate are less likely to consider themselves spiritual. Very spiritual Somewhat spiritual Not spiritual Refused Overall 30% 49% 19% 2% Left () 12% 42% 44% 2% Center (45%) 29% 51% 18% 2% Right (42%) 3 50% 13% 2% July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 17

18 Belief in God by Segmentation Most in the center believe in God. Believe in God Do not believe in God Don't know Refused Overall 82% 7% 8% 3% Left () 52% 27% 14% 7% Center (45%) 82% 9% 2% Right (42%) 90% 3% 5% 2% July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 18

19 Party by Segmentation Voters in the center group are more Independent and less Republican than average. Democrat Independent Republican Overall 34% 39% 27% Left () 62% 3 3% Center (45%) 32% 48% 20% Right (42%) 31% 14% 55% July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 19

20 Ideology by Segmentation Voters in the center group are slightly less conservative than average. Liberal Moderate Conservative Overall 24% 25% 51% Left () 64% 1 20% Center (45%) 30% 28% 43% Right (42%) 20% 70% July 14 DRAFT Report on Religious Issues 20

21 Religious Freedom Attitudes by Subgroup

22 Religious Freedom Attitudes Most voters want the government to stay out of religion, and most also believe there is a common sense solution to protect both religious freedoms and gay rights. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Don't know Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Total Agree Total Disagree I believe there can be a common sense solution that both protects religious freedom and protects gay and lesbian couples from discimination 35% 3 9% 71% 20% Federal and state governments should be able to require by law a private citizen to provide a service or provide their private property for an event that is contrary to their religious beliefs 5% 13% 14% 1 51% 18% 68% It should be up to the federal government to determine what constitutes legitimate religious beliefs 3% 8% 19% 60% 11% 79% Q For each of the following statements, please indicate whether you agree or disagree Report - July 30 22

23 Common Sense Solution by Party Democrats and Independents are more likely to believe there is a common sense solution than Republicans. I believe there can be a common sense solution that both protects religious freedom and protects gay and lesbian couples from discrimination. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 71% 20% Democrat (34%) 71% 14% 15% Ind/Other (39%) 77% 7% 1 Republican (27%) 60% 30% Report - July 30 23

24 Common Sense Solution by Segmentation The common sense attitude was used to define the center group. Many of those on the left and right of the debate also feel a common sense solution is realistic. I believe there can be a common sense solution that both protects religious freedom and protects gay and lesbian couples from discrimination. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 71% 20% Left () 61% 14% 25% Center (45%) 100% Right (42%) 45% 15% 40% Report - July 30 24

25 Common Sense Solution by Religious Affiliation Evangelicals are the least likely to believe in a common sense solution. I believe there can be a common sense solution that both protects religious freedom and protects gay and lesbian couples from discrimination. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 71% 20% Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 60% 9% 32% Other Protestants (22%) 7 8% 1 Catholic (23%) 75% 15% Other Religion () 81% 4% 15% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 79% 3% 19% No Preference/Ref (17%) 67% 19% 14% Report - July 30 25

26 Common Sense Solution by Church Attendance Regular churchgoers are less likely to believe in a common sense solution. I believe there can be a common sense solution that both protects religious freedom and protects gay and lesbian couples from discrimination. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 71% 20% Attend church regularly (30%) 6 24% Attend, not regularly (27%) 74% 8% 18% Do not attend/ref (43%) 72% 11% 17% Report - July 30 26

27 Federal Role by Party Nearly nine in ten Independent and Republican voters don t think it should be up to the federal government to define religious beliefs. It should be up to the federal government to determine what constitutes legitimate religious beliefs. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 11% 79% Democrat (34%) 1 18% 6 Ind/Other (39%) 7% 88% Republican (27%) 9% 85% Report - July 30 27

28 Federal Role by Religious Affiliation Disagreement is high across all religious denominations. It should be up to the federal government to determine what constitutes legitimate religious beliefs. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 11% 79% Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 13% 4% 83% Other Protestants (22%) 8% 1 7 Catholic (23%) 7% 7% 8 Other Religion () 13% 80% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 1 2% 82% No Preference/Ref (17%) 13% 21% Report - July 30 28

29 Federal Role by Church Attendance Even those who do not attend church oppose government interference in religion. It should be up to the federal government to determine what constitutes legitimate religious beliefs. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 11% 79% Attend church regularly (30%) 84% Attend, not regularly (27%) 9% 8% 83% Do not attend/ref (43%) 12% 15% 73% Report - July 30 29

30 Providing Services by Party More than seven in ten Republicans and Independents believe government should not be able to require a citizen to provide services for an event contrary to their beliefs. Federal and state governments should be able to require by law a private citizen to provide a service or provide their private property for an event that is contrary to their religious beliefs. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 18% 14% 68% Democrat (34%) 27% 21% 52% Ind/Other (39%) 14% 12% 73% Republican (27%) 14% 7% 79% Report - July 30 30

31 Providing Services by Religious Affiliation Unaffiliated voters feel government should not be able to compel services. Federal and state governments should be able to require by law a private citizen to provide a service or provide their private property for an event that is contrary to their religious beliefs. Overall 18% Agree Don't know Disagree 14% 68% Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 17% 5% 78% Other Protestants (22%) 14% 18% 68% Catholic (23%) 23% 14% 63% Other Religion () 27% 12% 61% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 25% 11% 64% No Preference/Ref (17%) 13% 25% 62% Report - July 30 31

32 Providing Services by Church Attendance Non-churchgoers also feel the government should not be able to require citizens to provide services. Federal and state governments should be able to require by law a private citizen to provide a service or provide their private property for an event that is contrary to their religious beliefs. Agree Don't know Disagree Overall 18% 14% 68% Attend church regularly (30%) 17% 9% 74% Attend, not regularly (27%) 21% 11% 69% Do not attend/ref (43%) 18% 19% 63% Report - July 30 32

33 Religious Freedom vs Rights of Gays and Lesbians

34 Wedding Photographer Refusal by Party More than 80% of voters believe a photographer should have the right to decline services based on religious beliefs. Suppose a Christian wedding photographer has deeply held religious beliefs opposing same-sex marriage. If a same-sex couple wanted to hire that photographer for their wedding ceremony, should the photographer have the right to say no? Yes Don't know No Overall 82% 8% Democrat (34%) 72% 11% 17% Ind/Other (39%) 83% 7% Republican (27%) 93% 5% 2% Report - July 30 34

35 Wedding Photographer Refusal by Affiliation Even unaffiliated voters think a photographer should be able to refuse. Suppose a Christian wedding photographer has deeply held religious beliefs opposing same-sex marriage. If a same-sex couple wanted to hire that photographer for their wedding ceremony, should the photographer have the right to say no? Overall Yes Don't know No 82% 8% Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 94% 4% 3% Other Protestants (22%) 81% 11% 9% Catholic (23%) 81% 13% Other Religion () 78% 1 7% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 80% 2% 17% No Preference/Ref (17%) 71% 11% 18% Report - July 30 35

36 Wedding Photographer Refusal by Church Attendance Non-churchgoers also believe a photographer should be able to refuse. Suppose a Christian wedding photographer has deeply held religious beliefs opposing same-sex marriage. If a same-sex couple wanted to hire that photographer for their wedding ceremony, should the photographer have the right to say no? Yes Don't know No Overall 82% 8% Attend church regularly (30%) 88% Attend, not regularly (27%) 80% 8% 11% Do not attend/ref (43%) 79% 8% 13% Report - July 30 36

37 Forced Choice by Party Most Republicans think protecting religious liberties is more important. Protecting religious liberties Both are important Neither are important Don't know Protecting the rights of gays and lesbians Overall 31% 53% 3% 5% 8% Democrat (34%) 22% 55% 2% 7% 14% Ind/Other (39%) 23% 61% 5% 3% 8% Republican (27%) 54% 39% 2% 5% Q37. Which issue do you think is more important? (RANDOMIZE 1-2) Report - July 30 37

38 Forced Choice by Segmentation The forced choice question was used to define the center group. Protecting religious liberties Both are important Neither are important Don't know Protecting the rights of gays and lesbians Overall 31% 53% 3% 5% 8% Left () 1 2% 1% 81% Center (45%) 100% Right (42%) 74% 14% Q37. Which issue do you think is more important? (RANDOMIZE 1-2) Report - July 30 38

39 Forced Choice by Religious Affiliation More than six in ten Evangelicals think protecting religious liberties is more important. Protecting religious liberties Both are important Neither are important Don't know Protecting the rights of gays and lesbians Overall 31% 53% 3% 5% 8% Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 61% 34% 1% 2% Other Protestants (22%) 25% 62% 3% 7% 4% Catholic (23%) 29% 58% 4% 3% Other Religion () 12% 69% 0% 3% 17% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 5% 54% 0% 35% No Preference/Ref (17%) 15% 57% 11% Q37. Which issue do you think is more important? (RANDOMIZE 1-2) Report - July 30 39

40 Forced Choice by Church Attendance Nearly half of regular churchgoers prioritize the protection of religious liberties. Protecting religious liberties Both are important Neither are important Don't know Protecting the rights of gays and lesbians Overall 31% 53% 3% 5% 8% Attend church regularly (30%) 48% 45% 3% 2% Attend, not regularly (27%) 32% 57% 1% 5% 5% Do not attend/ref (43%) 18% 57% 5% 14% Q37. Which issue do you think is more important? (RANDOMIZE 1-2) Report - July 30 40

41 Role of Military Chaplains

42 Role of Military Chaplains Half of voters think the military should not be able to restrict military chaplains. Recently there has been controversy over the role of chaplains in the US military. Do you think the military should be able to restrict the private conversations, counselling, prayer and teaching of military chaplains? Yes, to a great extent Yes, to some extent 13% Yes, to a minor extent 12% No, never 53% Don't know 17% Report - July 30 42

43 Role of Military Chaplains by Party More than six in ten Republicans do not think the military should be able to restrict military chaplains. Yes, to a great extent Yes, to some extent Yes, to a minor extent Don't know No, never Overall 13% 12% 17% 53% Democrat (34%) 8% 19% 11% 19% 43% Ind/Other (39%) 4% 15% 17% 55% Republican (27%) 9% 12% 62% Q36. Recently there has been controversy over the role of chaplains in the US military. Do you think the military should be able to restrict the private conversations, counselling, prayer and teaching of military chaplains? Report - July 30 43

44 Role of Military Chaplains by Affiliation Some non-christians and unaffiliated voters think the military should be able to restrict the counseling of military chaplains. Yes, to a great extent Yes, to some extent Yes, to a minor extent Don't know No, never Overall 13% 12% 17% 53% Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 4% 12% 9% 68% Other Protestants (22%) 9% 15% 15% 55% Catholic (23%) 11% 11% 14% 57% Other Religion () 2% 15% 23% 18% 42% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 15% 17% 22% 35% No Preference/Ref (17%) 5% 22% 29% 33% Q36. Recently there has been controversy over the role of chaplains in the US military. Do you think the military should be able to restrict the private conversations, counselling, prayer and teaching of military chaplains? Report - July 30 44

45 Role of Military Chaplains by Church Attendance Few non-churchgoers support restrictions on military chaplains. Yes, to a great extent Yes, to some extent Yes, to a minor extent Don't know No, never Overall 13% 12% 17% 53% Attend church regularly (30%) 5% 7% 12% 9% 65% Attend, not regularly (27%) 1 12% 12% 54% Do not attend/ref (43%) 15% 11% 25% 44% Q36. Recently there has been controversy over the role of chaplains in the US military. Do you think the military should be able to restrict the private conversations, counselling, prayer and teaching of military chaplains? Report - July 30 45

46 Values and the Presidential Race

47 Characteristics of a presidential candidate Nearly eight in ten voters think both character and moral values and positions on key issues are important. Character and moral values 7% Positions on key issues Both are important 79% Neither are important 1% Don't know 3% Q34. What is more important to you in choosing a presidential candidate? (RANDOMIZE 1-2) Report - July 30 47

48 Religious Profile of US Voters

49 Religious Affiliation Questions Protestant Something else Mormon Jewish Muslim 8% 0.7% 1.8% 0.4% 41% Christian? Yes () No/ Refuse (2%) Evangelical or Born-Again Christian? Yes No/ Refuse Born Again/ Evangelical Other Protestant Other Religion 25% 22% Buddhist 0.5% Hindu 0.2% Roman Catholic Orthodox 23% 0.2% Catholic 23% Agnostic Atheist 4.9% 2. Atheist/Agnostic 7% No Preference Refused 13% 4% No Preference/Ref 17% Report - July 30 49

50 Religious Affiliation Christianity Among those who said something else, more than seven in ten identified as Christian. Yes 71% No 17% Refused 11% Q55. Do you consider yourself a Christian? (N=62) Report - July 30 50

51 Religious Affiliation by Party Nearly half of Republicans identify as Born Again/Evangelical Christians. Born Again/ Evangelical Other Protestants Catholic Other Religion Atheist/ Agnostic No Preference/Ref Democrat (34%) 20% 20% 25% 7% 9% 19% Ind/Other (39%) % 9% 19% Republican (27%) 44% 18% 22% 4% 3% 9% Report - July 30 51

52 Religious Affiliation by Ideology Over a quarter of Moderates identify as Catholic. Born Again/ Evangelical Other Protestants Catholic Other Religion Atheist/ Agnostic No Preference/Ref Liberal (24%) 9% 17% 21% 9% 18% 2 Moderate (25%) 17% 24% 27% 5% 21% Conservative (51%) 3 23% 23% 4% 4% Report - July 30 52

53 Church Attendance by Religious Affiliation More than half of Evangelicals attend church on a regular basis. Regularly attend church Attend, not regularly Do not attend/ref Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 60% 28% 13% Other Protestants (22%) 22% 35% 43% Catholic (23%) 34% 37% 29% Other Religion () 27% 21% 52% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 0% 4% 9 No Preference/Ref (17%) 5% 15% 79% Report - July 30 53

54 Church Attendance by Party Nearly half of Republicans are regular churchgoers. Regularly attend church Attend, not regularly Do not attend/ref Democrat (34%) 23% 31% 4 Ind/Other (39%) 25% 22% 53% Republican (27%) 4 29% 24% Report - July 30 54

55 Church Attendance by Ideology Over half of Moderates attend church. Regularly attend church Attend, not regularly Do not attend/ref Liberal (24%) 18% 20% 62% Moderate (25%) 20% 37% 43% Conservative (51%) 41% 25% 34% Report - July 30 55

56 Spirituality by Religious Affiliation Most unaffiliated voters consider themselves spiritual. Very spiritual Somewhat spiritual Not spiritual Refused Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 57% 41% 2% Other Protestants (22%) 25% 57% 1 2% Catholic (23%) 19% 64% 15% 2% Other Religion () 28% 47% 24% 1% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 8% 25% 6 1% No Preference/Ref (17%) 21% 42% 30% Report - July 30 56

57 Spirituality by Church Attendance Most non-churchgoers consider themselves spiritual. Very spiritual Somewhat spiritual Not spiritual Refused Attend church regularly (30%) 57% 40% 2% Attend, not regularly (27%) 22% 70% 8% Do not attend/ref (43%) 15% 43% 37% 4% Report - July 30 57

58 Belief in God by Religious Affiliation Nearly half of unaffiliated voters believe in God. Believe in God Do not believe in God Don't know Refused Born Again/Evangelical (25%) 100% Other Protestants (22%) 95% 4% 1% Catholic (23%) 95% 4% 2% Other Religion () 53% 21% 11% 14% Atheist/Agnostic (7%) 15% 54% 31% 1% No Preference/Ref (17%) 62% 12% 18% 9% Report - July 30 58

59 Belief in God by Church Attendance Most non-churchgoers believe in God. Believe in God Do not believe in God Don't know Refused Attend church regularly (30%) 98% 1% 1% Attend, not regularly (27%) 9 2% 1% 1% Do not attend/ref (43%) 62% Report - July 30 59

60 Contact Information Patrick Caddell Report - July 30 60