National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1794 Likely Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report October 27-28, 2016 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track 23 69% P2NET P2 P3 ID1_12NET Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Approve % Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 4 2% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 255 4% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 4 2% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues 322 8% Health Care Issues 269 5% Senior s Issues 258 4% Women s Issues 0 6% Education Issues 08 6% Energy Issues 82 5% Other 56 3% Next we will look at a list of names that have been talked about as potential candidates for President. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each individual. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable 06 59% Heard Of, No Opinion 22 % Never Heard Of 6 0% Page 1

2 ID1_12 Question Response Frequency Percentage Next we will look at a list of names that have been talked about as potential candidates for President. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each individual. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. Donald Trump Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable 336 9% Somewhat Unfavorable 77 0% Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 22 % Never Heard Of 6 0% ID2_1NET ID2_1 Next we will look at a list of names that have been talked about as potential candidates for President. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each individual. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. Hillary Clinton Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 2 % Never Heard Of 4 0% Next we will look at a list of names that have been talked about as potential candidates for President. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each individual. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. Hillary Clinton Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable 99 % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 2 % Never Heard Of 4 0% Page 2

3 Question Response Frequency Percentage ID2_7NET Next we will look at a list of names that have been talked about as potential candidates for President. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each individual. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. Bernie Sanders Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 36 8% Never Heard Of 8 % ID2_7 ID3_2NET Next we will look at a list of names that have been talked about as potential candidates for President. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each individual. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. Bernie Sanders Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable 52 29% Somewhat Unfavorable 332 8% Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 36 8% Never Heard Of 8 % you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Total Favorable 26 5% Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % Page 3

4 ID3_2 Question Response Frequency Percentage you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Very Favorable 4 2% Somewhat Favorable 220 2% Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % ID3_3NET ID3_3 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Paul Ryan Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 290 6% Never Heard Of 50 8% you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Paul Ryan Very Favorable 7 7% Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 290 6% Never Heard Of 50 8% Page 4

5 Question Response Frequency Percentage ID3_4NET you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Bill Clinton Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 77 4% Never Heard Of 0 % ID3_4 ID3_6NET you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Bill Clinton Very Favorable 338 9% Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable 292 6% Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 77 4% Never Heard Of 0 % you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 296 7% Never Heard Of 40 8% Page 5

6 ID3_6 Question Response Frequency Percentage you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Nancy Pelosi Very Favorable 20 7% Somewhat Favorable 350 9% Somewhat Unfavorable 288 6% Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 296 7% Never Heard Of 40 8% ID3_7NET ID3_7 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Charles Schumer Total Favorable 3 8 8% Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Charles Schumer Very Favorable 9 5% Somewhat Favorable 226 3% Somewhat Unfavorable 207 2% Very Unfavorable 265 5% Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % Page 6

7 Question Response Frequency Percentage indpresapp_9net you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Gary Johnson Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 44 25% Never Heard Of 330 8% indpresapp_9 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Gary Johnson Very Favorable 73 4% Somewhat Favorable 298 7% Somewhat Unfavorable % Very Unfavorable 270 5% Heard Of, No Opinion 44 25% Never Heard Of 330 8% indpresapp_10net you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable 62 35% Heard Of, No Opinion 268 5% Never Heard Of 23 7% Page 7

8 Question Response Frequency Percentage indpresapp_10 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mike Pence Very Favorable % Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable 269 5% Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 268 5% Never Heard Of 23 7% indpresapp_11net you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Tim Kaine Total Favorable % Total Not Favorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 306 7% Never Heard Of 240 3% indpresapp_11 v16g5 you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Tim Kaine Very Favorable 62 9% Somewhat Favorable % Somewhat Unfavorable 273 5% Very Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 306 7% Never Heard Of 240 3% If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? Hillary Clinton % Donald Trump % Don t Know / No Opinion 228 3% Page 8

9 v16g17b Question Response Frequency Percentage If the 2016 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, for whom would you vote? Democrat Hillary Clinton % Republican Donald Trump % Libertarian Gary Johnson 39 8% Green Party s Jill Stein 64 4% Don t Know / No Opinion 32 7% v16g17c v16g18 v16g18_ln As of today, do you lean more toward Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? (N=132) Democrat Hillary Clinton 8% Republican Donald Trump 5 % Libertarian Gary Johnson 8% 95 72% If the election for for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? As of today, do you lean more toward the... (N=251) Democratic candidate % Republican candidate % Don t Know / No Opinion 260 5% Democratic candidate 32 53% Republican candidate 9 47% v16gopprim Which candidate did you support in the 2016 Republican primary for President? (N=703) Ted Cruz 97 4% Donald Trump % John Kasich 48 7% Marco Rubio 5 7% Ben Carson 62 9% Jeb Bush 3 2% Someone Else 28 4% Don t Know / No Opinion 47 7% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 9

10 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consu;t Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female 96 54% age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 269 5% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 294 6% PID/Gender: Ind Women 260 4% PID/Gender: Rep Men 27 5% PID/Gender: Rep Women 296 7% xdemtea Tea Party: Supporter % Tea Party: Not Supporter % N 776 xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 669 xeduc3 Educ: < College 50 64% Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 232 3% xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k+ 23 3% Continued on next page Page 10

11 National Tracking Poll #161019, October, 2016 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemwhite Ethnicity: White 48 83% xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 43 8% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am. 22 2% demraceother Ethnicity: Other 92 5% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 36 20% Relig: Ath./Agn./None % Relig: Something Else 257 4% N 597 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 49 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics % N 050 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian % N 790 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural 49 27% xdememploy Employ: Private Sector 60 34% Employ: Government 09 6% Employ: Self-Employed 46 8% Employ: Homemaker 68 9% Employ: Student 53 3% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 46 8% Employ: Other 28 7% xdemjobstatus Job Type: White-collar % Job Type: Blue-collar % Job Type: Don t Know 325 8% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 3 9 8% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 11

12 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consu;t Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track 23 69% xnr2bin Obama Job: Approve % Obama Job: Disapprove % N 754 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security 322 8% #1 Issue: Health Care 269 5% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 258 4% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 0 6% #1 Issue: Education 08 6% #1 Issue: Energy 82 5% #1 Issue: Other 56 3% xsubvote14o 2014 Vote: Democrat % 2014 Vote: Republican % 2014 Vote: Other 56 3% 2014 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 789 xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 59 3% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote 270 5% N 790 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 327 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % xv16g Vote: Clinton % 2016 Vote: Trump % 2016 Vote: Undecided 228 3% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 12

13 National Tracking Poll #161019, October, 2016 Page 13