Struggle for Marawi. Steven Rood, Fellow-in-Residence. Kapihan sa SWS March 8, 2018 Social Weather Stations. War for Hearts and Minds

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1 Steven Rood, Fellow-in-Residence Kapihan sa SWS March 8, 2018 Social Weather Stations War for Hearts and Minds March 8,

2 March 8, Philippines Special Operations March 8,

3 Islamic State: Brothers in Marawi Nasheed: March 8, pdfs/swsfebmarjun2015surveys.pdf March 8,

4 SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING OF MUSLIMS VS. CHRISTIANS, PHILIPPINES, 2017Q1-Q4 MUSLIMS CHRISTIANS Net Gainers Net Optimists Net Sat. with Life Net Happy Jobless (% of adults) March 8, READINESS TO HELP THE VICTIMS OF THE MARAWI CITY CRISIS, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2017 Unready, 20% Net* +40 Undecid ed, 20% Ready, 60% * Net readiness= % Ready minus % Unready correctly rounded. Don t know/refuse responses are not shown. Q87. Gaano po kayo ka-handang tumulong sa mga naging biktima ng krisis sa Marawi City? Kayo po ba ay (SHOWCARD) Third Quarter 2017 Social Weather Report September 23-27, 2017 National Survey 4

THINGS ONE CAN DO IN ORDER TO HELP THE VICTIMS OF THE MARAWI CITY CRISIS, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2017 (Base: Those who are ready to help the victims of Marawi City Crisis) Pray for/offer mass for the

5 THINGS ONE CAN DO IN ORDER TO HELP THE VICTIMS OF THE MARAWI CITY CRISIS, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2017 (Base: Those who are ready to help the victims of Marawi City Crisis) Pray for/offer mass for the victims 54% Donate relief goods 51 Donate clothes 49 Donate money 16 Work personally in packing/ delivering relief goods 13 Keep/protect victims in own house 4 Give free transportation/rides 2 Give free medicine 0.1 Q88. KUNG TALAGANG/MEDYO HANDA: Alin po sa mga sumusunod ang inyong kayang gawin upang makatulong sa mga biktima ng krisis sa Marawi City? Alin pa po? (SHOWCARD, ALLOW MULTIPLE RESPONSES) Third Quarter 2017 Social Weather Report September 23-27, 2017 National Survey Mindanao and Sulu Archipelago Mainstream Moro Fronts Islamic City of Marawi MNLF heartland MILF heartland Moro National Liberation Front Moro Islamic Liberation Front March 8,

Area of Operation of Selected Groups Butig, Marawi (IS-Ranao; Maute) Proposed territory of the Bangsamoro Parang, Barira, Buldon, Matanog-- Ca mp Abubakar MILF) Sulu (ASG KFR) Basilan (ASG,Hapilon)

6 Area of Operation of Selected Groups Butig, Marawi (IS-Ranao; Maute) Proposed territory of the Bangsamoro Parang, Barira, Buldon, Matanog-- Ca mp Abubakar MILF) Sulu (ASG KFR) Basilan (ASG,Hapilon) SPMS Box,,BIFF March 8, Formal Conflict Management MNLF & MILF 1976 Tripoli Agreement MNLF Marcos Marcos unilaterally re-interpreted it 1987 Jeddah Accord MNLF Aquino Overtaken by 1987 Constitution under Cory Aquino 1996 Final Peace Agreement (FPA) MNLF Ramos Integration of MNLF into PNP & Army (actually, MNLF sons & nephews) Arms to Farms in reality was Arms AND Farms 2001 Start of serious progress in MILF talks 2008 MOA-AD debacle, near-agreement with MILF Declared unconstitutional, violent upsurge, 750,000 IDPs 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro (CAB) w/ MILF 2015 Mamasapano incident (44 PNP-SAF killed) so no Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) to implement CAB 2016 Joint Communique on conclusion of Tripartite (OIC-MNLF- GPH) Review of the Implementation of the 1996 FPA 2017 Expanded Bangsamoro Transition Commission revises draft BBL 2018 Draft Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) again before Congress March 8,

Upsurge in Violent Extremism Abu Sayyaf (1991 breakaway from MNLF in Sulu [Tausug] and Basilan [Yakan]) Abdurajik Janjalani fought in Afghanistan, got funding from Osama bin Laden Beginning late

Umbra Kato as MILF commander attacked (MOA-AD) In 2011 declared bughat by MILF after long process (died 2015) Beginning 2014, reports of recruiting on college campuses in Mindanao Maute brothers (

7 Upsurge in Violent Extremism Abu Sayyaf (1991 breakaway from MNLF in Sulu [Tausug] and Basilan [Yakan]) Abdurajik Janjalani fought in Afghanistan, got funding from Osama bin Laden Beginning late 1990s, mostly known for kidnapping and piracy But in particular, Basilan ASG retained Islamic thrust (Isnilon Hapilon) Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (in Maguindanao/North Cotabato) In 2008, Umbra Kato as MILF commander attacked (MOA-AD) In 2011 declared bughat by MILF after long process (died 2015) Beginning 2014, reports of recruiting on college campuses in Mindanao Maute brothers ( Islamic State Ranao ), middle-eastern trained (Maranao, based themselves in Butig, LdS) Beginning 2016, frequent clashes with AFP, culminating in November in Butig, LdS March 8, Islamic State Abu Bakr al-baghdadi declared Caliphate June ) July 2 Taguig inmates; July 23 Hapilon swear bay ah 2016 ISIS names Hapilon Amir, releases video urging militants to go to PH December 2016 Hapilon goes to Lanao del Sur May 2017 plan to seize Marawi at beginning of Ramadan prematurely set off by arrest attempt on Hapilon Islamic City of Marawi, July 2014 March 8,

Urban Warfare in Mindanao Conflict Jolo, February 1974, 8 days to wrest

(AFP) retook it Zamboanga, September 2013 20 days 208 MNLF killed 20 AFP

militants killed, 165 AFP & PNP, 47 civilians 460,000 displaced, mostly

8 Urban Warfare in Mindanao Conflict Jolo, February 1974, 8 days to wrest control from MNLF City burned as the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) retook it Zamboanga, September days 208 MNLF killed 20 AFP & 5 PNP 12 civilians 119,000 displaced Marawi, May-October militants killed, 165 AFP & PNP, 47 civilians 460,000 displaced, mostly home-based March 8, Dress Rehearsal Butig, Lanao Sur (26 Nov 2016) They have been decimated. The capability to sustain and get back to the fight is no longer there AFP, Dec. 1, days 63 militants killed; 2 AFP killed, 35 injured Mautes said that they will go down upon Marawi to burn the place. And I said, Go ahead, do it. (Du30, Dec 12) March 8,

Door Via Sangihe Chain March 8, 2018 19 Understanding Violent Extremism in Mindanao Findings from Fieldwork (The Asia Foundation)

9 Troubled Maritime Region Troubled Maritime Region Indanan-Inabanga April 2017 Marawi February 2013 invasion of Sabah by Sulu Sultanate Sulu Basila n Samal Island Patikul September 2015 Lahad Datu Money smuggling via Tawau to finance #MarawiClash Back Door Via Sangihe Chain March 8, Understanding Violent Extremism in Mindanao Findings from Fieldwork (The Asia Foundation) Photo courtesy of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, The East Asia Wilayah and Indonesia (21 July 2017: IPAC Report No. 38) 9

10 Mutually reinforcing push factors: Frustration borne out of continuing perceived and actual marginalization of Muslims in Mindanao. Anti Muslim bias; sense of persecution Unaddressed historical injustices Experiences of human rights violations; need for revenge Military operations seen as willful destruction of Muslim communities Dire political and economic situation Corrupt officials and overall bad governance Poverty, illiteracy, unemployment Frustration with the MNLF and MILF leadership and the peace process Non passage of the BBL as evidence of government treachery Nationalist Moro fronts cooperation with the enemy Mutually reinforcing pull factors: Emotional and spiritual appeal of extremist ideology Extremist ideology as compelling response to the present situation Power and social prestige in the community Belonging to a select group of young Muslim heroes and warriors Adventure and romantic appeal of youthful idealism Financial reward 10

11 Who are the likely recruits? In mainland Mindanao (urban) Usually college students Higher level students of madrasah Young, idealistic and with leadership potential Many belong to the middle class families In the islands Young, poor with low education Usually children and relatives of MNLF fighters Personally suffered loss of family members due to conflict The extremist narrative; their spiel Singularity of aqeedah: this is the correct way of practicing Islam. All others are innovation and unacceptable Islam is under attack globally and locally Muslims will always be deceived by non-muslims Khilafa is the answer to the problems of Muslims Peace process is a deception MNLF and MILF are traitors; turned their backs to true jihad 11

12 Recruitment process? (Basilan & Sulu) (ASG) Initial offer to learn Arabic Feeds those who come for religious education Indoctrinati on on kidnapping and violence Financial enticements Guerilla training and swearing of allegiance Recruitment process (Mainland) (Dawlah Islamiya, Ansar Al-Khilafa Philippines) Social media Recruitment from among family members Student organization s Financial Enticemen t Guerilla training and swearing of allegiance mubaya Interpersona l discussions; long intimate car rides Public displays of ISIS flags to project popularity Short wave radio channel s Islamic study circles called halaqa 12

13 What makes the extremist groups resilient? Community and family support Not necessarily because of shared belief Social obligation to help family members in need Cultural obligation to help a Muslim who is fighting a non-muslim Government seen as the common enemy Community tolerance and silence due to fear of reprisal from extremists Communities also benefit financially (Sulu & Basilan) Foreign support Aside from regular payments to members, $600,000 for Marawi Coordination of different elements ASG and Maute, or Dr. Mahmud for Indonesians Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) Bangsamoro Basic Law to implement peace agreement Faces rough ride in Congress, particularly House of Representatives The Bangsamoro narrative is counter to that of the caliphate Community resilience interventions Space for community-based dialogue; management of localized conflict Positive messaging with the religious (note: some local ulama threatened) Security sector reform on Countering Violent Extremism Rethinking of present security sector approach to VE Governance Issues Work to improve accountability of local officials Legal framework (Bank Secrecy, Money Laundering, Human Security Act 5 year to declare ASG terrorist group) March 8,

14 Role of Mainstream Moro Fronts MILF: BBL best vaccine against the ISIS virus (won t convince those dedicated to a caliphate, but can present a positive Bangsamoro narrative) 2010/2011 process to declare Umbra Kato and his (BIFF) Bughat Study Group on violent extremism, but reluctant to endorse anti-cve June 25, 2017 issued a fatwa against (unnamed) violent extremist elements Meanwhile, Commander Bravo has cooperated with CCCH in operations against Mautes; issued YouTube video in June 2017 ( your jihad is not ours ) Twice MILF forces have repelled ISIS-linked militants trying to enter Maguindanao Similarly, action against BIFF in central Mindanao has had MILF cooperation since 2011 Joint Peace and Security Teams (AFP/PNP/BIAF) held open Marawi Peace Corridor MNLF (Misuari) has recently intervened to help release Abu Sayyaf hostages in Sulu In February 2013 his forces launched offensive, suffered casualties (including 4 beheadings) March 8, Pathologies of Marawi Reconstruction Military Reservation as declared in 1957 the military will not claim any land that it does not need New camp to take 10 of the 250 hectares Total Uncertainty with regard to land 11,000 buildings, 3000 informal 7,000 parcels as per Land Management Bureau, overlapping, conflicts Plans for the Modern Marawi City Wide boulevards, promenades, etc. President Duterte wants just low structures to prevent sniping All local sectors NGOs, Sultans, LGUs say lack of consultation Residents have lost everything, are not able to return and have a very murky future a situation that could easily lead to discontent. March 8,

#52 Malingap Street, E-mail: sws_info@sws.org.

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Religious Extremism: Manifestation, Incidence and. Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective

Religious Extremism: Manifestation, Incidence and Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective Steven Rood, Ph.D. Fellow-in-Residence Social Weather Stations 16 August 2018 OUTLINE Difficulties