Religious Extremism: Manifestation, Incidence and. Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective

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1 Religious Extremism: Manifestation, Incidence and Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective Steven Rood, Ph.D. Fellow-in-Residence Social Weather Stations 16 August 2018 OUTLINE Difficulties in using Surveys on this Topic Thoughts From Youth VE 2017 survey Final Thoughts in looking at Extremism 2 Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 2 1

2 Difficulties in using Surveys on this Topic: Examples from April 2018 Post-Conflict Expectations in Marawi City, Lanao del Sur, and Maguindanao Poor Question Wording Respondent Reluctance to Answer Teasing out Attitudes by Analysis 3 Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 3 BEST STATEMENT DESCRIBING ONE'S UNDERSTANDING OF JIHAD*, BY AREA, APR 2018 [MUSLIMS ONLY] Lanao Maguindanao del Sur IDP Marawi City Camps Residents Jihad represents struggle in the way to God (Allah) 35% 89% 62% 52% Jihad is one of the pillars of Islam It is an obligation for every Muslim to practice It should not exist Jihad is a practice like in the time of the crusades Jihad is a political practice of Muslims striving for justice using any means available, including a weapon *Gallup World Poll question Don t know and no answer responses are not shown. Q87. Which of these statements best describes your understanding of Jihad? (SHOWCARD) (ONE ANSWER ONLY) Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 4 2

3 PERCEIVED NUMBER OF MUSLIMS THAT SUPPORT TERRORIST GROUPS, BY AREA AND EDUCATION, APR 2018 Up to Up to Up to College some some some grads Mag LdS IDPs MCRs Elem. H.S. Coll. & up in the Philippines Very many/many 12% 24% 14% 22% 15% 21% 18% 12% Undecided Few/Very few Net* in Mindanao Very many/many Undecided Few/Very few Net* in one s locality Very many/many Undecided Few/Very few Net* Legend: Mag=Maguindanao, LdS=Lanao del Sur, IDPs=Internally Displaced Persons-Marawi, MCRs=Marawi City Residents *Net figures = % Very many/many minus % Few/Very few, correctly rounded. Qs In your opinion, how many Muslims in [our country, Mindanao, your locality] support terrorist groups like Abu Sayyaf and Maute group? (SHOWCARD) Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 5 Chart 20. % WHO SAID THAT THE FOLLOWING ACTS OF TERRORIST GROUPS ARE ALWAYS/SOMETIMES JUSTIFIED, BY AREA, APR 2018 Marawi groups Lanao IDP Marawi City Maguindanao del Sur Camps Residents Ambushing the military while conducting roadside patrols 5% 11% 4% 6% Training children to become soldiers in war Suicide bombing Bombing of non-military establishments and religious sites like church Killing of civilians Attacking camps of police or military Kidnapping Qs Here are some possible acts of terrorist groups like Abu Sayyaf and Maute group to fight for their cause. Please tell me if these are justified or not justified. You may indicate your answers by placing the card with the pronouncements in the appropriate place on this rating board. (ALWAYS JUSTIFIED, SOMETIMES JUSTIFIED, UNDECIDED IF JUSTIFIED OR NOT JUSTIFIED, RARELY JUSTIFIED, OR NEVER JUSTIFIED) Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 6 3

4 Chart 21. % WHO SAID THAT THE FOLLOWING ACTS OF TERRORIST GROUPS ARE RARELY/NEVER JUSTIFIED, BY AREA, APR 2018 Marawi groups Lanao IDP Marawi City Maguindanao del Sur Camps Residents Kidnapping 89% 80% 50% 64% Killing of civilians Attacking camps of police or military Ambushing the military while conducting roadside patrols Bombing of non-military establishments and religious sites like church Training children to become soldiers in war Suicide bombing Qs Here are some possible acts of terrorist groups like Abu Sayyaf and Maute group to fight for their cause. Please tell me if these are justified or not justified. You may indicate your answers by placing the card with the pronouncements in the appropriate place on this rating board. (ALWAYS JUSTIFIED, SOMETIMES JUSTIFIED, UNDECIDED IF JUSTIFIED OR NOT JUSTIFIED, RARELY JUSTIFIED, OR NEVER JUSTIFIED) Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 7 Thoughts from Youth VE 2017 survey Merdeka Findings Unsurprising: High Acceptance of Violence Surprising: High Level of Ultra-Literalists Youth VE Conservative Islamic Values Widespread; 53% to 75% agree that: Gender segregation should be enforced Sharia should be strictly enforced Older Generation not practice true form Islam Democracy not right form of Government 8 Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 8 4

5 Final Thoughts in looking at Extremism The Narrowing Funnel from Milieu to Action ISIS wants to Eliminate the Gray Zone 9 Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 9 Funnel from Milieu to Action What is the process of moving into last level Young, in transition, finding identity Need intimate dialog, not mass messaging Friends, Classmates, Family Also need positive empowering appeal (e.g., successful Bangsamoro) Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 10 5

6 Don t Cooperate with ISIS in the Extinction of the Gray Zone Conservative Islamic Values are Widespread Most Salafi (from salaf predecessor or ancestor) are attacks Kharijites [ those who defected from the group to rebel against the early caliphs, Uthman and Ali] Islam Under Threat is the only variable in the Youth VE study that consistently predicts Ideology and Violence Disputing Islamic Values only proves the point of ISIS propaganda Correlates in South East Asia: Philippines Perspective 11 6