Why Iran Will Ignite a Regional War, Sooner Rather than Later By: Lisa Daftari / Fox News.com / July 16, 2012

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1 Adventist Heritage From: Charles E. Wheeling on behalf of Charles E. Wheeling Sent: Tuesday, July 17, :11 PM To: Adventist Heritage Subject: [Spam:*********** SpamScore] July 17, Enews from the Desk of Charles Wheeling Having trouble viewing this ? Click here Hi, just a reminder that you're receiving this because you have expressed an interest in Inspiration Books East. Don't forget to add webmaster@inbookseast.org to your address book so we'll be sure to land in your inbox! You may unsubscribe if you no longer wish to receive our s. July 17, 2012 Why Iran Will Ignite a Regional War, Sooner Rather than Later By: Lisa Daftari / Fox News.com / July 16, 2012 Sanctions may have cut Iran's oil exports by a million barrels a day. "The Islamic Republic of Iran is in protection mode; its mere existence depends on protecting its nuclear sites and maintaining Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria. Now, the possibility that Assad's regime will fall, together with the intensification of sanctions against Iran that were implemented early this month, have politically and economically isolated the Iranian regime to a point where the only way out is for it to create its own global diversion through military provocation. "Currently, three snowballing events against the backdrop of mounting Western pressure on Iran and failed negotiations at the United Nations Security Council. "First, sanctions are further crippling the already weak and crumbling Iranian economy. Both the regime and the people of Iran are already feeling the intense economic pressure as the prices of basic goods have skyrocketed. "Second, the probable fall of the Assad regime and even its current deterioration are undermining the axis of survival created between the two countries, thereby challenging 1

2 Iran's relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon and its strategic geopolitical status in the region. "And lastly, oil prices continue to decline and Iran's oil output is at the lowest recorded level in the last 20 years. "A regional escalation would be the ideal distraction to take global pressure off Iran's nuclear agenda and prevent harm to and dissolving of Assad's regime. "A politically and economically cornered Islamic Republic suffering from the latest implementation of targeted sanctions, a weakening of the Assad regime and further economic deterioration of both Syrian and Iranian regimes, is vying for a similar escalation that is not too far away. "Iran will opt for conflagration over surrender in the coming months. The pressures are high, yet the circumstances of 1988 and 2003 are absent. More importantly, the Islamic regime in Tehran now boasts the unwavering support and encouragement of Russia." Click Here To Read It All U.S. Navy Ship Fires at Small Boat in Persian Gulf By: Barbara Starr / CNN.com / July 17, 2012 "A U.S. military supply ship fired Monday at a small boat in the Persian Gulf after it came too close, killing one person on board and wounding three, Defense Department officials said. The USNS Rappahannock, a fuel resupply ship, fired on what the officials called a "small, white pleasure craft." "The USNS Rappahannock, a fuel resupply ship, fired on what two U.S. officials called a 'small, white pleasure craft' 10 miles (16 kilometers) from the Dubai port of Jebel Ali. "The causalities were Indian fishermen, according to the United Arab Emirates' news agency WAM. "U.S. officials expressed their condolences and said the incident is under investigation. "'In accordance with Navy force protection procedures, the sailors on the USNS Rappahannock... used a series of nonlethal, preplanned responses to warn the vessel before resorting to lethal force," the Navy said in a statement. "'The U.S. crew repeatedly attempted to warn the vessel's operators to turn away from their 2

3 deliberate approach. When those efforts failed to deter the approaching vessel, the security team on the Rappahannock fired rounds from a.50-caliber machine gun.'" Click Here To Read It All World Economy Heads for Another Perfect Storm The International Monetary Fund's latest "World Economic Outlook" makes for chilling reading. A perfect storm in which all parts of the world economy go down together seems fast to be gestating somewhere out in the mid-atlantic. By: Jeremy Warner / The Telegraph.co.UK.com / July 16, 2012 "True enough, the IMF has not reduced its forecasts of world growth for this year and next by very much -- just 0.1 and 0.2pc respectively -- but it notes some key downside risks. For the best part of the last year, the US has seemed immune to Europe's woes, but now cracks are beginning to emerge. "To the all too familiar economic threats posed by the Eurozone must now be added the approaching 'fiscal cliff' in the US, whose own nascent recovery is in any case fast losing momentum, and the evident slowdown in emerging markets. "All three cornerstones of the world economy seem now to be heading into the sand. "For the best part of the last year, the US has seemed immune to Europe's woes, but now cracks are beginning to emerge. With the recovery fading, the US may even have slipped back into negative growth in the second quarter, though that still remains a minority view. Even so, most anticipate at best anaemic growth of little more than 1pc in annualised terms, and that's before we encounter the dreaded 'fiscal cliff', which could suck as much as 4pc out of US output. "The effect would be so extreme that, for that reason alone, the IMF assumes the politicians won't allow it happen. The IMF comforts itself with the prediction that some kind of political consensus will eventually be reached that extends temporary tax cuts and prevents the deep automatic spending cuts due to kick in at the end this year." Click Here To Read It All Latest IBE Communicator -- Free LiveLink PDF Download: Also visit The Perfect Storm website: Many FREE resources FREE MP3s 3

4 FREE iphone-ready presentations FREE Sabbath Sermons FREE ebook PDFs -- Visit today! Fire! Flood! Earthquake... So much is happening, we barely look up anymore July is the month when things make a change. Just past the solstice at the end of June, summer arrives and the planet makes a slow wind-down to the other end of its orbit around the sun. As sundown each day creeps slowly down the clock, we in the northern hemisphere look forward to cooler months! Things have gone on like this for millennia -- but somehow things are just a little different. Click image above to download a free LiveLink PDF report and read the rest of the article... Forward this to a friend This was sent to ahc@andrews.edu by webmaster@inbookseast.org Update Profile/ Address Instant removal with SafeUnsubscribe Privacy Policy. Inspiration Books East PO BOX 352 Jemison AL Spam 4

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6 Why Iran will ignite a regional war, sooner rather than later Fox News of 2 7/18/2012 9:39 AM Print Close By Lisa Daftari Published July 16, 2012 FoxNews.com The Islamic Republic of Iran is in protection mode; its mere existence depends on protecting its nuclear sites and maintaining Bashar al Assad s regime in Syria. Now, the possibility that Assad s regime will fall, together with the intensification of sanctions against Iran that were implemented early this month, have politically and economically isolated the Iranian regime to a point where the only way out is for it to create its own global diversion through military provocation. Currently, three snowballing events against the backdrop of mounting Western pressure on Iran and failed negotiations at the United Nations Security Council 5+1 talks have, and continue to limit, Iran s political and economic flexibility, even if the regime s saber rattling propaganda declares otherwise. First, sanctions are further crippling the already weak and crumbling Iranian economy. Both the regime and the people of Iran are already feeling the intense economic pressure as the prices of basic goods have skyrocketed and the value of the rial currency has plummeted. Should Iran refuse to stop enriching uranium, additional sanctions will be implemented, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has publicly stated. Second, the probable fall of the Assad regime and even its current deterioration are undermining the axis of survival created between the two countries, thereby challenging Iran s relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon and its strategic geopolitical status in the region. And lastly, oil prices continue to decline and Iran s oil output is at the lowest recorded level in the last 20 years, both Iran and Syria are becoming further weakened both economically and politically. Prospects seem bleak. OPEC projects that global oil demand in 2013 is expected to slow to 800,000 barrels a day from 900,000 barrels a day in A regional escalation would be the ideal distraction to take global pressure off Iran s nuclear agenda and prevent harm to and dissolving of Assad s regime. This is the same strategy that the Iranian regime used in 2006 when fear that the International Atomic Energy Agency was going to transfer the country s nuclear portfolio of violations to the United Nations Security Council led to the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit by Islamic Jihad, with the assistance of Hamas on the Gaza border. This was then followed by the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers on the Lebanese border. These events took Iran s nuclear proliferation program out of the international spotlight in exchange for an intense military standoff between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Now, a politically and economically cornered Islamic Republic suffering from the latest implementation of targeted sanctions, a weakening of the Assad regime and further economic deterioration of both Syrian and Iranian regimes, is vying for a similar escalation that is not too far away. An alternative to provocations that will ultimately and inevitably lead to a large-scale military showdown in the region is for the regime to fold. In its 32 year reign, the Islamic Regime surrendered twice before when it was brought to its knees by foreign entities; once in 1988 when the father of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini signed a ceasefire with Saddam Hussein sealing off a long and bloody 8 year Iran-Iraq War, and again in 2003, the Islamic Republic suspended its nuclear program fearing American military presence in neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan at the time. Iran will opt for conflagration over surrender in the coming months. The pressures are high, yet the circumstances of 1988 and 2003 are absent. More importantly, the Islamic regime in Tehran now boasts the unwavering support and encouragement of Russia.

7 Why Iran will ignite a regional war, sooner rather than later Fox News of 2 7/18/2012 9:39 AM Russia has openly supported both the Iranian and Syrian regimes at a time when the tension between Iran and the west coincides with a growing strain between the U.S. and Russia. The regimes in Tehran and Damascus enjoy the support of Russia while Russian President Vladmir Putin has positioned himself to use Iran and Syria to strategically advance Russia s standing vis-à-vis the U.S. The final element that makes a provocation in the coming weeks even more likely is the significant build-up of U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf, originally intended to counter Iranian threats to close off of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by firing a test-fire missile exercise, launching the Grand Prophet 7, which can reach up to 1300 km, enough to reach Israel and the Gulf states. Tehran s message to the U.S. is that they will not be undermined or weakened by Western intimidation. Now, with U.S. presence in the Gulf, a global military conflict of catastrophic proportions could come from the slightest brush of an elbow. We must assume the Iranian regime is sufficiently rational in understanding that whatever damage they could cause to the regional and western front, they will also suffer immensely. Following that premise, one is tempted to believe that their current conduct is only an exercise of extreme brinkmanship strategy, built on the assumption that President Obama, focused on his re-election, and Europe, as its historical record has proven, will back down first. Lisa Daftari is a journalist and commentator who specializes in counterterrorism, Middle East and Iranian affairs. For more, visit her website: Print Close URL Home Video Politics U.S. Opinion Entertainment SciTech Health Travel Lifestyle World Sports Weather Privacy Terms This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed FOX News Network, LLC. All rights reserved. All market data delayed 20 minutes.

8 U.S. Navy ship fires at small boat in Persian Gulf - CNN.com 1 of 2 7/18/2012 9:41 AM U.S. Navy ship fires at small boat in Persian Gulf - CNN.com By Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent updated 2:51 AM EDT, Tue July 17, 2012 CNN.com Washington (CNN) -- A U.S. military supply ship fired at a small boat in the Persian Gulf on Monday after it came too close, killing one person onboard and wounding three, Defense Department officials said. The USNS Rappahannock, a fuel resupply ship, fired on what two U.S. officials called a "small, white pleasure craft" 10 miles (16 kilometers) from the Dubai port of Jebel Ali. The USNS Rappahannock, a fuel resupply ship, fired on what the officials called a "small, white pleasure craft." news agency WAM. The casualties were Indian fishermen, according to the United Arab Emirates' U.S. officials expressed their condolences and said the incident is under investigation. The small boat appeared to be headed for that port, the Defense Department officials said, adding that their information was preliminary. The U.S. ship verbally warned the smaller boat when it was 1,200 yards (1,100 meters) away and fired at least one warning shot before the decision was made to fire shots to disable the boat, the officials said. "In accordance with Navy force protection procedures, the sailors on the USNS Rappahannock... used a series of nonlethal, preplanned responses to warn the vessel before resorting to lethal force," the Navy said in a statement. "The U.S. crew repeatedly attempted to warn the vessel's operators to turn away from their deliberate approach. When those efforts failed to deter the approaching vessel, the security team on the Rappahannock fired rounds from a.50-caliber machine gun." Officials described the course of events as standard procedures when a small boat gets too close to a U.S. Navy ship. The officials, who would not be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation, also described the small boat as having made a series of maneuvers, but emphasized they were waiting for more details about what exactly happened. UAE authorities are investigating the incident, WAM quoted Tariq Ahmed Al Haidan, a Foreign Ministry official, as saying. And a UAE source said the Emirates' government would follow up after a review. Jebel Ali is 22 miles (35 kilometers) southwest of Dubai and 37 miles (60 kilometers) north of Abu Dhabi. With 67 berths and extensive dry-dock facilities, it is the largest man-made port in the world and the largest port in the Gulf region and in the Middle East.

9 U.S. Navy ship fires at small boat in Persian Gulf - CNN.com 2 of 2 7/18/2012 9:41 AM 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

10 World economy heads for another perfect storm - Telegraph of 4 7/18/2012 9:42 AM World economy heads for another perfect storm The International Monetary Fund s latest World Economic Outlook makes for chilling reading. A perfect storm in which all parts of the world economy go down together seems fast to be gestating somewhere out in the mid-atlantic. For the best part of the last year, the US has seemed immune to Europe s woes, but now cracks are beginning to emerge. Photo: OJO Images/Rex Features By Jeremy Warner 7:58PM BST 16 Jul 2012 True enough, the IMF has not reduced its forecasts of world growth for this year and next by very much just 0.1 and 0.2pc respectively but it notes some key downside risks, and it is not just the problems of the eurozone it is talking about this time either. Already struggling to return to growth, the UK needs these new pressures like a hole in the head. To the all too familiar economic threats posed by the eurozone must now be added the approaching fiscal cliff in the US, whose own nascent recovery is in any case fast losing momentum, and the evident slowdown in emerging markets. All three cornerstones of the world economy seem now to be heading into the sand. Let s take each in turn. The IMF makes the heroic presumption in keeping its aggregate growth

11 World economy heads for another perfect storm - Telegraph of 4 7/18/2012 9:42 AM forecasts on a roughly even keel that the eurozone is on the mend, with financial conditions gradually easing for periphery nations. In reaching this conclusion the IMF assumes that the measures agreed at a recent summit of European leaders will be implemented soon and will work as prescribed in restoring market confidence. These assumptions both look questionable. It s still far from clear quite how serious eurozone member states are about the banking union they ve agreed. Details remain confused and thin on the ground. Northern creditor nations also seem to be fast backtracking on use of the European Stability Mechanism to recapitalise banks directly and on use of bailout funds for intervention in secondary bond markets. And even if these things are enacted in uncompromised form, they only address the symptoms of the problem, leaving the root causes in widely divergent competitiveness between member states largely untouched. It sometimes seems that the IMF exists in a bubble of academic economic and financial analysis which pays scant regard to the way in which these problems play out in the real world. Even if the solutions agreed at the summit do succeed in stilling the markets and I ll believe it when I see it they will do little or nothing to lift these economies out of the economic slump they ve fallen into. The euro cannot be safe until it delivers prosperity for all, and we are still a million miles away from such an outcome. For the best part of the last year, the US has seemed immune to Europe s woes, but now cracks are beginning to emerge. With the recovery fading, the US may even have slipped back into negative growth in the second quarter, though that still remains a minority view. Even so, most anticipate at best anaemic growth of little more than 1pc in annualised terms, and that s before we encounter the dreaded fiscal cliff, which could suck as much as 4pc out of US output. The effect would be so extreme that, for that reason alone, the IMF assumes the politicians won t allow it happen. Instead, the IMF comforts itself with the prediction that some kind of political consensus will eventually be reached that extends temporary tax cuts and prevents the deep automatic spending cuts due to kick in at the end this year. Perhaps this is correct. The American political system has a habit of going to the wire on these issues but, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, can in the end always be counted on to do the right thing, once everything else has been tried. That s what happened during the debt ceiling crisis of early last year. Unfortunately, the problem wasn t finally resolved back then. In settling the debt ceiling crisis, the US political system merely set itself up for the looming fiscal cliff of automatic tax rises and spending cuts. President Obama only managed to push the problem a couple of years out into the future.

12 World economy heads for another perfect storm - Telegraph of 4 7/18/2012 9:42 AM Worries over the Budget have now come back to haunt. A fog of political uncertainty has once more descended over the US economy. Political gridlock is again the order of the day. No doubt the Fed can be relied on to come riding to the rescue with a third round of quantitative easing some believe it should already have done so but even if you think more money printing the right approach, it couldn t possibly counter a 4 percentage point fiscal squeeze. Still, there are always the turbo-charged emerging markets to support growth, aren t there? Unfortunately not. Even China is slowing fast. Caught between stagnant export markets and evident overcapacity in the domestic economy, a hard landing now seems all too possible. China is about to test the assumption that a centrally directed economy can somehow buck the usual rules of market economics. I know which side my money is on. What s so worrying is that if the Chinese domestic economy stalls, China would then almost certainly attempt to export its way out of trouble by dumping its excess capacity wholesale on world markets. Some might argue that this is what it has been doing all along, and that this is a large part of the West s problem. Well it could be about to get a whole lot worse, testing faith in free and open trade close to breaking point. As for the UK, the IMF growth forecast has been downgraded more than any other advanced economy for this year and next, with virtually nil growth this year and just 1.4pc next. The IMF also trails official UK forecasts by some distance on deficit reduction. A while back, when its forecasts for the UK looked much prettier than they do now, the IMF said the Government might have to consider a plan B if growth slowed. Since then it has slowed a lot, but still the IMF is not urging outright reversal of the austerity measures. Of course we all know why this is the case. The IMF can t go to a country not obviously in need of a bail-out and say you ve got things hopelessly wrong, especially one that unlike the US and Canada, has just agreed to cough up more IMF funding. What s more, it was once glowing in its praise for the boldness of Osborne s deficit reduction strategy. For the IMF to change tack would be a godsend to the Opposition and like a knife in the back to Osborne. Still, the message was quite bad enough, coming the very day the Government chose to relaunch its growth strategy with a welcome but, in the scale of things, insignificant programme of rail electrification. The way things are going, the UK economy may soon need rather more urgent

13 World economy heads for another perfect storm - Telegraph of 4 7/18/2012 9:42 AM defibrillation than that. Copyright of Telegraph Media Group Limited 2012

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