Global View Assessments Winter Key Judgment: Pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong leave China few viable options.

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Global View Assessments Winter Key Judgment: Pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong leave China few viable options."

Randell Fitzgerald
6 years ago
Views:

1 China: Hong Kong Protests Destabilize China and Taiwan Key Judgment: Pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong leave China few viable options. Analysis: On September 27, 2014, protests began in response to Beijing s announcement that candidates for Hong Kong s 2017 elections would be vetted by the Chinese government. The protesters are calling for fully democratic elections with universal suffrage. Although the protests were started by students, the Occupy Central pro-democracy movement also took to the streets. No single group leads the demonstrations, and both the young and the old are taking part. So far, the protesters have remained peaceful and orderly, going so far as to clean up trash. However, teargas was deployed by riot police, and Hong Kong s leadership has decried the protests as harming Hong Kong s image and economy. China has shut down access to Instagram on the mainland in response to violent imagery from the protests. Assessment: China has little margin for error if it wishes to avoid a political fiasco. Both the Taiwanese and the Chinese peoples are watching closely to see how Beijing will respond. The scope of the Hong Kong protests means that China will not be able to appease the protesters easily. If the Chinese give significant concessions to the protesters in Hong Kong, pro-democracy advocates in Taiwan and China will be emboldened in their respective causes. However, cracking down on the protests would also have grave implications for Beijing. Any violence on the part of Beijing would instantly create parallels to the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre that left hundreds of people dead and generated a great international outcry. Such violence could lead to demonstrations in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China. China must subvert the protesters through other means. Possible alternative methods include winning the support of those not involved in the protests, spreading targeted propaganda that undermines the protesters position, and allowing the movement to die out over time. In any case, a swift end to the protests in Hong Kong is unlikely. Author: Michael Beach 1

2 Syria: Implications of Arming Moderate Rebels Against ISIS Key Judgment: The announcement of the United States arming moderate Syrian Rebels could have a backlash against the U.S. similar to the Soviet War in Afghanistan in the 1980 s. Analysis: On September 18, 2014, both chambers of Congress approved legislation for the Obama Administration to arm and train moderate Syrian rebels. The Syrian rebels will be tasked with taking the fight to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syrian (ISIS) extremists. President Obama has vowed to keep American troops from stepping foot in Iraq and Syria because of the fatigue of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last 13 years. Arming and training the moderate Syrian Rebels and the Kurdish Peshmerga fighters will help take back cities and towns from ISIS fighters with the assistance from U.S. led air strikes. Assessment: Although ISIS is becoming a greater threat to American interests and assets, arming rebels will not completely eradicate the threat that ISIS imposes. ISIS split from Al-Qaeda because of their extreme ideologies in restoring the Caliphate. The U.S. intervention in Iraq and Syria is similar to the covert arming of the mujahideen fighters against Soviet Union troops in Afghanistan. The C.I.A. trained and armed the fighters much like the Syrian rebels. After the Soviet withdrawal of Afghanistan, the mujahideen who were expertly trained, formed into the Taliban, cut ties with the Western world and eventually gave Al-Qaeda a home to plan the largest terrorist attack ever executed. After the eradication of ISIS, Syrian rebels will have the training and weapons supplied to them by the U.S. to turn them on the U.S. allies and interests and such as Israel and petroleum. Because of the potential threat of blowback, continued U.S. air strikes without supplying rebels with weapons appears to be the optimum U.S. policy strategy. Author: Aaron Ayerdis 2

3 Syria: ISIS Closes in on Kurdish Town in Syria; Turkey Debates Sending Troops Key Judgment: ISIS fighters have recently been attacking towns on the Turkish border in order to expand their territory, resulting in a flood of refugees into Turkey. Analysis: As the threat of ISIS grows near the countries bordering Iraq and Syria, hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing to find shelter. In recent days, around 150,000 people have fled to Turkey as refugees, escaping ISIS fighters, armed with tanks and heavy weaponry, who are trying to gain control of a small town called Kobani. If they were to take control of this town, ISIS would control a complete stretch of land from their self-declared capital of Raqqa, all the way back to the Turkish border. Turkish officials have been debating on whether or not to send troops into the region to deal with the problem. As of now, they continue to back US-coalition airstrikes that are targeting ISIS militants in the region but have yet to join in the fighting themselves. US Navy Rear Admiral John Kirby discussed recent airstrikes in the Kobani region. He was unable to provide details as to how effective the strikes were and whether or not they were having an effect on the ISIS advance. A US official said that strikes there must be calculated and precise to decrease the chances of collateral damage. Moreover, a lack of direct, reliable Intelligence is hampering operations. Assessment: An ISIS presence of any substantial manner near the border of our allied countries presents a threat to both international and national security. As we have seen since the beginning of the problems with ISIS, any territory they gain only aids their combat power and allows them to further their attacks against US supported militants. The US-led coalition will require Turkish involvement to help in decreasing the active combat power of ISIS. With the US unwilling to deploy actual combat troops on the ground, actionable intelligence from the region is indispensable. If Turkey were to help gather intelligence on ISIS, this would allow for US airstrikes in the region to be more effective in stopping the ISIS advance. The situation is likely to get much worse for Turkey as ISIS grows and encroaches upon their border. Ankara will need to help the Coalition with actual troops and more actual intelligence if they hope to see a decrease in the ISIS threat. Author: Jacob Sherman 3

4 United States: Returning from Syria, Lone Wolves Join the Pack Key Judgment: American citizens returning back home from fighting in Syria will become a growing terrorist threat in the US. Analysis: With the war raging on in Syria, there are many foreign fighters who are traveling abroad to fight for the jihadist movement. According to US Intelligence, there are over one hundred US citizens currently fighting in Syria and Iraq with Islamic forces. There is also estimated to be over one thousand foreign fighters who possess citizenship with our allied countries. With these growing numbers, prominent radical terrorist groups in the region are growing, including such groups as the Khorasan Group, ISIS, and the al-nusra Front. These groups are allowing these fighters the ability to receive training, combat experience, connections, and a firmer sense of radicalization. All three of these groups do have confirmed fighters possessing US passports, and all want to eventually conduct attacks within the United States. Assessment: The problem with this current situation is a complex spider-web of interconnected threats. The fact that a rumored one thousand fighters are currently fighting in Syria is an immediate failure of our allies and our intelligence networks for not stopping them before taking flight. Secondly, once they arrive in Syria, they receive combat experience, deeper radicalization, and are able to network with other terrorists, thus enabling them to plan attacks and swap information. This networking of the militants allows them to synthesize their operational plans to attack US targets inside the US. Also complicating the problem is the fact that these individual, who are American citizens have US passports and are able to return to their home country legally. Moreover, this also poses serious problems for our allies. The concern is were US allies attacked, public and political support these allied governments may plummet, thus withdrawing their alliance with Western efforts against ISIS and correlating groups thus directly degrading Washington s efforts (as demonstrated by the Madrid Train bombings in 2003). Additionally, this poses a serious threat of the vulnerabilities of US critical infrastructure. Were a group such as Khorasan, a group determined to attack the US, to send fighters back to the States trained in explosives, chemical/biological attacks, or cyber operations, then these lone wolves could potentially return unnoticed and attack US infrastructure. Therefore, the US must focus on tracking the terrorists overseas possessing US passports and must stop them before they return to US soil. Efforts also must continue to find cost effective ways to increase security in US areas of infrastructure that these groups are intent and able to cripple. Lastly, the US security and intelligence must continue to share with allies the critical information and intelligence on potential attackers and attacks. Author: Ryan Coe 4

5 Syria: The Rise and Threat of the Khorasan Key Judgment: The terrorist group known as the Khorasan has been utilizing the resources of Syria in order to carry out their plans to recruit followers, plot future Western attacks, and construct destructive bombs. Analysis: The Khorasan militants are experienced and highly dangerous al Qaeda members who are using the airstrikes on Syria to plan out attacks on the United States. On September 22, 2014, the United States sent out U.S. fighter jets to target key areas within Syria, especially the terrorist cell: the Khorasan. The airstrikes on the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria revealed to United States intelligence analysts that the Khorasan militant group has been plotting attacks beyond the border of Syria. The Yemen affiliates of al Qaeda have been working alongside the Khorasan for the past year to develop bombs which have planned to be delivered to the United States in order to attack the American homeland. The Obama administration is working continuously with the Department of Homeland Security to assess the risks that could come about from Western Khorasan recruits reaching the United States. Khorasan militants have travelled from Pakistan, Afghanistan and elsewhere to Syria in order to carry out operations correlated with al Qaeda ideals and plans. Assessment: The possible threat of lone wolf terrorist attacks within the United States has increased as US airstrikes attacked targets in Syria. The aftermath of the Syria conflict will cause those who are supporters of ISIS to react with violent and detrimental responses, such as the uprising of the Khorasan group. The United States must focus its efforts on detecting Khorasanmanufactured bombs which could be life-threatening were they to reach American airports. The Khorasan group could potentially be a far greater threat to the United States considering that they are receiving their funds and resources through al Qaeda militant leaders. Unlike ISIS, the Khorasan group wishes to attack Western target areas such as the United States through the use of domestic attacks by homegrown or recently-returned-from-syria terrorists. In any case, the threat to the US from these types of attacks in real and not decreasing. Author: Cody Sholar 5

6 Iraq: Islamic State s Killer Broadcast Key Judgment: ISIS over the past few months has been escalating its worldwide terror by furthering its overall social media potential, not only to intimidate enemies, but win support of surrounding populations. Analysis: With the Islamic State recently posting beheadings of James Foley on August 19 th and other beheadings of American allies on the 2 nd and 14 th, the demonstrative terror and brutality of ISIS continues to expand. The Islamic State has been posting precursor videos showing the killing of Western hostages since the group s formation when they were killing foreign targets to create a psychological impact on the global audience. Using the videos is not only to provoke fear into Western forces but to show Western cultures, such as the United States, how effective a mass media can be. Employing this idea of information operations through the deployment of online and offline media, is just another step ISIS is taking by spreading their message via global mass media. The highquality production of these videos motivates recruitment and potential donors in the Gulf to aid them, thus furthering overall ISIS gains. ISIS has been using videos not only in social media, but in battle as well. The goal of videos in battle is to dehumanize the enemies of ISIS so that the Islamic State militants can justify the killing of innocent men, women, and children to promote their message and faith. Assessment: Overall, the appalling nature of these beheadings has resulted in the intended effects; generating intense global attention to ISIS and the situation in Syria. Clearly, the ISIS has choreographed and broadcast these beheadings in order to provoke, threaten and intimidate the US and allies. Although the momentum of this mass media effort has been generating for some time, ISIS has increasingly become the topic of news headlines throughout the world. ISIS is using these videos not only to gain attention, but to sway donors, recruits, and fighters, and are truly are making the best of their resources. While terrorist groups have been using mass media as a means to advocate their political objectives for decades, ISIS has branched off from typical propaganda and used high-end production to advance their purpose. As a terrorist coalition, the Islamic State will continue broadcast the most gruesome media in order to achieve their intended results. In the future, more killer broadcasts will be posted on social media by ISIS and other terrorist groups, not only because it is simple, easily accessible, and an expedient process, but also because it enables the achievement of their strategic, political and security goals. Author: Christian Sprague 6

7 ISIL: What Another Beheading Means for the US and the International Community Key Judgment: The ISIL beheadings in an effort to achieve their strategic, political goals and attempt to force United States forces and the international community to cease airstrikes and armed intervention in Iraq and Syria. Analysis: On 13 September 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) executed its third journalist hostage. David Haines, a British journalist, was killed via beheading by an ISIL executioner with a British accent. This executioner is presumed to be the same individual who executed the first two American hostages, James Foley on 20 August 2014, and Steven Sotloff on 2 September The original intent of the execution of the American hostages was to convince the United States to halt airstrikes on Islamic State strongpoints and key assets. However, with the latest hostage being a British citizen, it is clear that the Islamic State is broadening its message to convince the United Kingdom to withdraw its support of the coalition combatting the Islamic State. Assessment: ISIL has become notorious for using extreme forms of violence to convey its messages to the rest of the international community. Based on the continuous trend of events, ISIL will continue the beheading of journalists in the region until its demands are met and international forces cease military operations in the region. On the one hand, the trend of beheadings is a positive outcome for the United States and the international community because they demonstrate that the strategic airstrikes and anti-isil military operations are certainly inflicting damage on the group. On the other hand, this means that Western journalists in the region are in imminent danger of being the subjects of Islamic State beheading videos. Undoubtedly, the ISIL beheadings is an effort to achieve their strategic, political goals and attempt to force United States forces and the international community to cease airstrikes and armed intervention in Iraq and Syria. Due to recent pressure from the international community to take action, the United States has joined a coalition of other nations in the Middle East, initially including Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, to begin major bombing of Islamic State strongpoints, such as Raqqa (the ISIL capital). We expect that the major bombing campaign will certainly be a significant setback to ISIL forces in the region; however, for the United States to completely resolve the issue with the Islamic State, it can be assumed that all out conventional warfare accompanied by troops on the ground will be required to bring an end to the conflict. Author: Benjamin York 7

8 Nigeria: Boko Haram Transitions to Conventional Fight for Territory Key Judgment: Boko Haram s transition from guerrilla attacks to a more conventional fight for territory has resulted in the group seizing control of several towns in Northeastern Nigeria, which will likely create a haven for future Boko Haram operations. Analysis: Recently Boko Haram has transitioned its tactics into a more conventional fight targeting towns within the Mandara mountain range, which borders Cameroon. Instead of their past tactics of raiding villages and destroying infrastructure, Boko Haram has opted to create its own caliphate, much like that of the Islamic State. While the villages under Boko Haram s control have little importance in economic resources or political influence, the Mandara Mountains provide a terrain that provides a safe haven for the insurgents to move freely from Northeastern Nigeria into Cameroon. The Cameroonian border only adds to the group's protection by securing the rear of its position against Nigerian military action. Assessment: Boko Haram controls an area within the Mandara Mountains, if they were to spread deeper into Nigeria's most northeastern states, the lack of protective terrain coupled with the Nigerian military's ability to maneuver more freely has the possibility of weakening the group. However, it may be feasible that Boko Haram could threaten to take control of Borno state's capital, Maiduguri. A similar effort to claim territory during the first half of 2013 ended poorly for the group after a state of emergency reinforced the Joint Task Force in Nigeria's northeast. If Boko Haram attempts to extend its reach outside of the Mandara Mountains the result will likely be similar. With the current safe haven that Boko Haram controls and the porous borders between Nigeria and Cameroon contributing to the resupply of the group s forces the Nigerian military must reinforce the northeast. Due to the escalation of Boko Haram s recent operations the United States and neighboring allies should provide assistance to the Nigerian government. Without this assistance Boko Haram could strengthen and become increasingly more violent. Author: Jason French 8

9 Nigeria: Boko Haram Threat Assessment Key Judgments: The objective of the extremist, Islamic sect Boko Haram is to create an Islamic State in Nigeria, and to that end has conducted an insurgency in northern Nigeria, thus threatening the country s stability and security. Analysis: Boko Haram, which translates roughly into Western education is forbidden, has increasingly attacked not only Nigerian military and government targets, but has burned and destroyed schools, kidnapped students, and targeted institutions affiliated with westernized beliefs or education. Boko Haram is a rising threat to the overall stability of Nigeria, and interestingly shares similar characteristics to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Boko Haram, which started in 2002 under the leadership of Mohammed Yusuf, has grown in numbers and has increased the level of attacks against the Nigerian government. Moreover, Boko Haram is part of the al Qaeda franchise network, including such groups al Qaeda, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the Islamic State, and others, and has received funding from these types of groups, including in recent years, as much as 70 million dollars from the World Islamic Call Society. Operationally, Boko Haram has been responsible for brutal cases of car bombings, attacks on civilians, suicide bombings carried out on government buildings as well as churches, attacks on the United Nations, and killing of estimated 4,000 people so far in Assessment: Boko Haram is a serious security threat to Nigeria and West Africa. U.S relations with Nigeria are vital and any instability to the region is of direct concern to American interests. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, seventh most populous country in the world, 22nd fastestgrowing economy in the world, 13th largest supplier of global oil, second largest destination for U.S. private investment in Africa, and second largest African contributor to UN peacekeeping operations. With this much at stake, Nigerian security is of critical importance. Without a significant shift in the balance of the fighting, Boko Haram will continue to threaten Lagos. For a number of reasons, Nigeria has been unable to defeat this threat, while Boko Haram has not been able to move this insurgency forward and overthrown the government. Were an Islamic state established in Nigeria, it would destabilize the region and pose a greater threat to international security. While US and international assistance could provide needed support to counter Boko Haram, Lagos is not likely to seek or accept external support. Author: Loren Day 9

Global View Assessments Fall 2013

Global View Assessments Fall 2013 Saudi Arabia: New Strategy in Syrian Civil War Key Judgment: Saudi Arabia has implemented new tactics in the Syrian civil war in an effort to undermine Iran s regional power. Analysis: Shiite Iran continues