Inversion Towards Occupation

Transcription

1 Inversion Towards Occupation A New Challenge to Israel s National Security Concept January 2007

2 A New Challenge to National Security Crisis in Israel s National Security Concept Israel is in Strategic Inferiority Palestinians may not fight for end of occupation Israel s policy towards Hamas has failed 2

3 Crisis in Israel s National Security Concept Objective Two-State One-State Anchor Israeli Strength Iranian Hegemony Problem USA Palestinians IDF Security & Foreign Affairs Alliance with the Superpower State & End of Occupation Win, Deter Structure of the Political System US Decline; Erosion of Pro-Israel Lobby Inversion Towards Occupation How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza? Logic Military Political Strategy of Implosion Enemy States and Organizations The Resistance Network

4 Adaptive Challenge for National Security Technical Problem Semi-technical Problem Adaptive Challenge Problem Known Known Un-Known Solution Known Un-Known Un-Known 4 Ron Heifetz Leadership without Easy Answers"

5 Strategy of Implosion Purpose: Destruction of Israel Meshal: If Hamas cannot Ahmadinejad: protect the Palestinian The Palestinian people, Ahmadinejad: Nasrallah: We Israel do not is need on a refugees let the PA will go be to hell able to [Hamas] return. tanks crash and course planes just [Israel] like the is The will future not find of Palestine it difficult will to be Soviet weaker Union than a disappeared. spider web. announce determined the by dissolution referendum. of the (7/31/06) (12/2/06) PA and a return (11/29/06) to ground zero: an occupied nation. (3/19/06) Continuation of Occupation De-Legitimize Promote 1SS Oppose 2SS Israeli Implosion War Against Occupation Military Means Single Arab State in its place 5

6 Inversion Towards Occupation Palestinians oppose PSPB Palestinians seek state (even PSPB) Inversion towards occupation? Palestinians oppose occupation? 1937 Inversion towards 2SS Int'l community supports 2SS 6

7 Significance of Inversion Strategic Inferiority Clash of Logics Price and Value Harder to End Control Political Logic: Ending Control Value Price > Military Logic: Increasing Control Time 7

8 Hamas Accelerates Inversion Political Dead-End Crisis of Palestinian Representation Dismantling the PA Negotiation Meshal: Hamas will close the political chapter 2SS and the PA will collapse. (11/25/06) Unilateral 8

9 Policy Guidelines Re-establishing an Address Consolidating Separation Upgrading Political Status 9

10 Risks Pal. State Recog. IL Battle Hamas Policies vis-à-vis Hamas Obstruction Exposure Confrontation 3 Demands + embargo No PA collapse Corridor of difficult decisions War against Hamas De-Jure De-Facto Already exists Bypassing Hamas Upgrading the PA Deal with Fatah Hamas doesn t fall / change PA collapses Hostile PA Weaken Abu Mazen PA collapses / terror Hamas wins Fatah under-delivers

11 Policies vis-à-vis Hamas Obstruction Exposure Unity Gov t Allow it to Govern Address Confrontation Civil War Fatah wins at least in the WB 11

12 Responses are Bubbling Objective Anchor Two-State Solution Israeli Strength One State Iranian Hegemony Economic Sanctions & Military Tools Problem Security & Foreign Affairs Political System Political Reform USA Palestinians IDF Closeness with the Power State & End of Occupation Victory, Deter US Decline Inversion Towards Occupation How to Win in Lebanon and Gaza? Regional Alliances Exposure or Confrontation Winograd Commission Meridor Report Logic Enemy Military States and Organizations Political Strategy of Implosion Resistance Network How to Break the Amoeba s Bones?

13 Conclusions Israel faces a new strategy: Occupation leads to Israel s implosion Palestinians don t want or can t end the occupation Policy against Hamas is failing Allow a unity government to govern Confront Hamas in a Palestinian Civil War Commissions of Inquiry are not enough Problem lies in the National Security Concept Relevant commission yet to be formed 13