Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress

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1 Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Œ œ Ÿ

2 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š On December 27, 2008, Israel launched a major military campaign dubbed Operation Cast Lead against the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip in order to counter Palestinian rocket fire and, more broadly, to significantly weaken all aspects of Hamas rule in Gaza. On January 3, 2009, Israel began a ground offensive into Gaza intended to eliminate Hamas s willingness or capability to launch rockets at Israeli towns and cities. As of January 14, Israeli bombings and ground forces had reportedly killed over 1,000 Palestinians, while 13 Israelis had been killed by Palestinian rockets and attempts to counter the ground invasion. Some Israeli observers have suggested that neither toppling the Hamas regime nor permanently ending all rocket attacks is a realistic goal. Nevertheless, by temporarily disabling Hamas s military capacity and slowing its rearmament, Israel could ease the frequency and intensity of Hamas attacks in the months ahead as it prepares to deploy new, more sophisticated anti-rocket defense systems. One complicating factor for Israel is time: the longer Operation Cast Lead runs without a definitive outcome in Israel s favor, the more pressure will grow for a cessation of hostilities. The unraveling of the six-month tahdiya or temporary cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that led to the December 2008 outbreak of violence in and around the Gaza Strip can be linked to several factors some tactical, some more deeply-rooted. Some commentators have said that giving up on the cease-fire was in both sides interests. The world response to the Gaza crisis has been characterized by consistent calls for an end to the violence and by concern over the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Both houses of Congress have passed resolutions supporting Israel s right to defend itself. The crisis has exacerbated tensions between countries in the region with a relatively pro-western orientation like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia and other countries and non-state actors like Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. Egyptian-facilitated talks aimed at halting the fighting continue after a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, durable and fully respected ceasefire was passed unanimously on January 8, with the United States abstaining. U.S. President-elect Barack Obama will likely be compelled to address the Gaza situation directly at the outset of his administration. The incoming 111 th Congress may be called upon to increase various forms of assistance to Israel, to the Palestinian Authority headed by President Mahmoud Abbas, and to Palestinian civilians in order to support a sustainable post-conflict order that guarantees Israel s security and attends to the needs of the Palestinian humanitarian situation. The Gaza crisis constitutes a conundrum for all involved. Israel would like to avoid a drawn-out invasion and occupation of Gaza, but at the same time does not want to abandon the military operation without assurance that the end result will leave Israelis more secure from rocket attacks. Although the ground attack might endanger its rule in Gaza, Hamas may welcome it in the hopes of miring Israeli forces in close-quarters combat to strip away their advantages in technology and firepower and in hopes of heightening perceptions that Palestinians are being victimized. Linking the cessation of violence in and around Gaza with international enforcement of a truce or a broader regional security initiative may be possible, but, at present, no proposed solution appears straightforward. This report will be updated as necessary to reflect further developments. Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

3 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š Introduction: Israel s Gaza Campaign... 2 Overview of the Conflict... 2 Major Developments Military, Diplomatic, and Humanitarian... 4 The Conflict s Origins... 6 Can Israel Achieve Its Goals?...9 The Unraveling of the Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire... 9 Background of Hamas in the Gaza Strip The Cease-Fire and Its End Impact on Civilians...11 Impact on Palestinian Civilians Impact on Israeli Civilians International Response International Community United Nations...14 United States Middle East Possible Consequences of the Gaza Campaign Effect on the Arab-Israeli Peace Process Prospects for an Israeli-Palestinian Two-State Solution A Syria-Israel Peace Deal: Still in the Cards? Mounting Pressure on Egypt Impact of Conflict on Israeli Election The General Palestinian Response Implications for U.S. Policy and the 111 th Congress The Incoming Obama Administration From Proactive to Reactive? Public Diplomacy Challenges Possible Options for the Incoming 111 th Congress Defense Budget Appropriations for U.S.-Israeli Missile Defense Programs Oversight of U.S. Arms Sales to Israel Humanitarian Aid (Including to UNRWA) and Other Economic Assistance to Palestinians...28 U.S. Security Assistance to the Palestinian Authority Conclusion: Strategizing an Exit and a Future Conundrums Ways of Reaching and Sustaining a Truce Figure 1. Map of the Gaza Strip in the Conflict... 1 Figure 2. Range of Selected Rockets and Mortars Fired from the Gaza Strip... 8 Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

4 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š Table 1. Defense Budget Appropriations for U.S.-Israeli Short-Range Missile Defense: FY2006-FY Table 2. U.S. Appropriated Funds Directed to Palestinians (June 2007-December 2008) Author Contact Information Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

5 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š Figure 1. Map of the Gaza Strip in the Conflict Sources: U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (including for the Bisection Line) and UNOSAT, with additional data from UNRWA; adapted by CRS. Note: All locations are approximate. Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

6 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š On December 27, 2008, Israel launched an extensive military campaign dubbed Operation Cast Lead against the Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip in order to counter Palestinian rocket fire into southern Israel and, more broadly, to significantly weaken all aspects of Hamas rule in Gaza. Initially, coordinated Israeli air strikes against pre-selected targets took Hamas by surprise, as the operation commenced in full daylight (Hamas expected any attack to come at night) and was timed to coincide with a meeting of Hamas s leadership as well as a graduation ceremony of hundreds of new Gazan police cadets. In addition to Hamas weapons caches and military facilities, Israel has targeted other elements of Gaza s infrastructure that it believes support Hamas s military objectives, including mosques, the Islamic University of Gaza, Hamas s Al Aqsa television station, the homes of Hamas militants and government officials, a wide range of government buildings, and a network of smugglers tunnels along the border with Egypt. Israeli air strikes have reportedly killed senior Hamas officials and militants, including Hamas interior minister Said Siam (who was responsible for various security apparatuses in Gaza, was a key security liaison between Hamas s political and military wings, and was known as an extremist among Hamas s top leadership ranks in Gaza), Salah Abu Shrakh (head of Hamas s general security service), and Mahmoud Watfah and Shaykh Nizar Rayyan (influential figures within Hamas s military wing (the Izz al Din al Qassam Brigades)). 2 On January 3, 2009, Israel expanded its operations by beginning a ground offensive sending thousands of troops over Gaza s northern border, along with tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery divisions. Observers presume that the ground operation began in the north largely to disable Palestinian rocket launch sites that took advantage of the area s relative proximity to targets in southern Israel. Palestinian rocket attacks on southern Israel have continued (see the inset section Palestinian Rocket Attacks from Gaza: Threat Assessment and Israeli Responses below), although their frequency appears to have gradually diminished as the fighting has endured. Hamas and other allied Palestinian militant groups have reportedly moved more rocketlaunching operations into densely-populated sectors of Gaza City and to areas further south that are less endangered by Israeli forces. As of January 14, Israeli air and naval strikes and ground forces had reportedly killed over 1,000 Palestinians, including hundreds of Hamas gunmen but also hundreds of Palestinian civilians (civilians represent at least half of the total deaths, according to reports), while 13 Israelis had been killed four from Palestinian rocket fire and nine from other fighting. For a more detailed 1 This section was written by Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs and Acting Research Manager, Middle East and Africa Section; and by Jim Zanotti, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs; except where otherwise specified. 2 Yaakov Katz, Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam Dies in IAF Air Strike, jpost.com, January 15, Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

7 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š breakdown of casualties and internal displacement, see Impact on Civilians below. Israeli officials also have said that several Hamas fighters have been taken into Israeli custody. Having captured military targets in the northern sector of Gaza (e.g., weapons caches, rocket launch sites, bunkers), the Israeli forces positioned themselves around Gaza City during the week of January 5 after taking control of Gaza s main north-south highway, and there has been closequarters fighting between Israeli forces and Hamas gunmen in various Gaza City neighborhoods and in towns in the immediate vicinity such as Jabalia. By cutting off northward access and effectively stopping all tunneling from Egypt, Israeli forces are seeking to prevent Hamas from supplying their fighters with weapons from the south of Gaza. Israeli officials allege that Hamas s guerrilla warfare tactics of deception (fighting in civilian clothes, using tunnels and bunkers, and using civilian buildings for military purposes) are based on Iranian training and on methods used by Hezbollah (the Lebanese Shia militant group whose summer 2006 war with Israel is regularly compared by observers to the conflict in Gaza). 3 According to Yuval Diskin, the head of Israel s Shin Bet (internal security service), senior Hamas leaders have even used Gaza s main medical center, Shifa Hospital (see location on Figure 1), as a hideout (see Impact on Palestinian Civilians below). Despite Hamas s use of these tactics, Israeli ground forces do not appear to have met lasting formidable resistance from Hamas fighters or prepared positions. Israel has reportedly gained valuable intelligence from Gazans it has detained, from captured maps and plans, and from subterfuge. Israel s decision to have its troops go in heavy, using armored vehicles and firepower even in urban environments and warning civilians to leave ahead of time, is also thought to have kept Israeli casualties low, perhaps at the price of greater threats posed to Gazan civilians. According to Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Israel s attacks were intended to deal Hamas a severe blow, ending its willingness and capability to launch rockets at Israeli towns and cities. As the third week of fighting began, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that Israel was getting close to achieving the goals it set for itself but that more patience, determination and effort are still demanded. There are reports that Israel believes that the Gaza-based leadership of Hamas is inclined to accept a cease-fire, given the setbacks it has suffered in the fighting and its seemingly weakened military capacity. The Gaza leadership s views may be at odds with the proclaimed stance of Damascus-based Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal, who reportedly has been conferring with Iranian and Syrian leaders throughout the conflict and has demanded that Israel end its assault and open all border crossings before agreeing to a cease-fire. As the week of January 12 began, Israeli Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad and representatives from Hamas were talking separately with Egyptian facilitators regarding a possible end to the fighting. U.S. and Israeli media sources report an ongoing debate among Olmert, Barak and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni over how the war should end and whether Israel should seek a cease-fire with Hamas or unilaterally declare victory at some point. 4 Thus far, significant domestic public approval has accompanied Israel s military operations. An Israeli announcement on January 11 that its reservists have entered the fighting alongside its regular army divisions could signal the beginning of a third phase to the conflict, in which Israel may engage more directly in urban 3 Steven Erlanger, A Gaza War Full of Traps and Trickery, New York Times, January 10, Griff Witte, Israelis Push to Edge of Gaza City, Washington Post, January 12, Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

8 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š warfare in an attempt to further weaken and pressure Hamas militants and leaders, may seek to seize the strip of Gazan land immediately bordering Egypt to gain control of the smuggling routes, and may even try to end Hamas rule in Gaza. 5 As of January 15, Israeli forces were reportedly thrusting further into Gaza City. The Gaza headquarters of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) and Al Quds Hospital have both sustained damage (see the locations of both sites on Figure 1; also see Impact on Palestinian Civilians below). After U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon (who had just arrived in Israel to try to facilitate an end to the fighting see United Nations below) said that Barak had apologized to him for the damage inflicted on the UNRWA building (which has injured three UNRWA staff members and may have involved incendiary white phosphorus shells) and had called the incident a grave mistake, 6 Olmert while expressing regret told Ban that Israel fired in response to Hamas attacks from the UNRWA compound. 7 The intensification of Israeli military operations has led to heightened international pressure for an end to hostilities. As the second week of fighting neared its end, the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1860 on January 8, which called for an immediate, durable and fully respected ceasefire leading to the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Diplomatic attention centered around a joint Egyptian-French proposal to end hostilities and establish a sustainable post-conflict order, but both Israel and Hamas have thus far refused to halt the conflict. Resistance by Egypt to allowing greater international authority over smuggling prevention efforts from its side of the border, along with disagreements over which parties might be assigned responsibility for the crossings from the Gaza side of the border, may have made a compromise elusive. Getting updates on developments in the Gaza Strip has been made more difficult due to Israel s barring of the international media from entering the territory independently (only a small group has been permitted into Gaza, accompanied by Israeli troops), even though the Israeli Supreme Court issued an order during the first week of the conflict requiring that some journalists be admitted. Asked to explain the continuing embargo, Daniel Seaman of Israel s Government Press 5 On January 2, Vice Premier Haim Ramon said on Israeli television: What I think we need to do is to reach a situation in which we do not allow Hamas to govern. Ethan Bronner, Is the Real Target Hamas Rule? New York Times, January 3, Israel Apologizes to Ban for Hitting U.N. Compound, Reuters, January 15, An Israeli security source has denied that Barak called the incident a grave mistake. Gaza Pounded Amid Push for Truce, BBC News Online, January 15, Olmert reportedly said, We do not want such incidents to take place and I am sorry for it but I don't know if you know, but Hamas fired from the UNRWA site. This is a sad incident and I apologise for it. Sheera Frenkel and Philippe Naughton, UN Headquarters in Gaza Hit by White Phosphourus Shells, The Times Online (UK), January 15, This section was written by Jim Zanotti, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs. Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

9 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š Office said, Any journalist who enters Gaza becomes a fig leaf and front for the Hamas terror organization, and I see no reason why we should help that. 9 Many have called attention to what they characterize as a humanitarian crisis for the people of Gaza, although Israel insists that it is not targeting Gaza s population at large only Hamas. Starting on January 7, Israel instituted (and Hamas has generally reciprocally observed) what it calls a humanitarian corridor a lull in violence for three hours every day in order to allow medical assistance in conflict areas and to allow trucks to bring needed goods and supplies to Gazan civilians. Some, however, insist that this measure does not sufficiently address the situation. There is also evidence that Israeli forces may have accidentally shelled a residential site in the Zeitoun neighborhood south of Gaza City to which some Israeli troops had previously gathered about 110 civilians, killing about 30 and injuring dozens more, and that the Israelis kept the site and a broader area of the neighborhood off-limits to international rescue and health care providers for up to four days. For more information on the humanitarian situation in Gaza, see Impact on Civilians below. One of the most controversial events of the ground offensive to date has been the January 6 shelling by Israeli forces of a school in Jabalia (just north of Gaza City) operated by UNRWA. When the school was hit killing approximately 40 Palestinians and wounding dozens more it was being used as a civilian shelter. Israeli officials have vacillated in their public statements regarding whether Palestinian militants were firing from the U.N. school grounds or from an adjacent area, while U.N. officials have maintained that no firing came from the school grounds and have called for an independent investigation. Reported Israeli strikes on two other U.N. schools (one in Jabalia, one in Gaza City) and on two U.N. humanitarian aid convoys (which killed one U.N. worker and injured two others), despite the United Nations insistence that its buildings and vehicles were clearly marked and their locations provided to Israeli officials, have led to condemnation by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon of Israel s actions vis-à-vis the convoys and to a one-day suspension of U.N. food delivery operations (see Impact on Palestinian Civilians below). An Israeli military spokesman claimed that Hamas was attacking humanitarian convoys and blaming the attacks on Israel. 10 Another notable occurrence was the firing of at least two Katyusha rockets on January 8 from southern Lebanon into northern Israel (near the town of Nahariya). The rockets did not cause fatalities, but did lead to two injuries at a senior care facility that was hit. Israel fired back at the location from which the rockets came, but did not retaliate further. The timing of the firing initially led Israel and many observers to wonder whether Hezbollah was attempting to open a second front in the conflict, but subsequent indications are that Hezbollah was not directly responsible, and the Israeli government has expressed its belief that the rocket fire was an isolated incident. Nonetheless, some analysts believe that Hezbollah and/or Iran may have orchestrated or at least consented to the firing to cause confusion in Israel and to portray themselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause, and that the indirect, low-level nature of the attack may have been intentionally calibrated to avoid a major Israel reprisal. These suspicions grew on January 14 9 Lisa Goldman, Eyeless in Israel, Jewish Daily Forward, January 8, According to the same source, Israeli media have not been allowed in the Gaza Strip for more than two years. 10 See Griff Witte and Colum Lynch, As U.S. Abstains, U.N. Security Council Calls for Cease-Fire, Washington Post, January 9, Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

10 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š when another volley of three or four Katyusha rockets was fired into northern Israel from southern Lebanon (and shortly thereafter, three more Grad-style rockets that were set to be fired were reportedly discovered and dismantled by Lebanese troops), once again triggering return fire from Israel aimed at the source. Prior to the start of Israel s campaign, experts warned that a full-scale resumption of Israeli- Palestinian violence was imminent, as Egyptian mediation failed to extend the six-month ceasefire (tahdiya or calm) that expired on December 19, Each party felt as though the other was violating the terms of the original cease-fire. Hamas demanded unsuccessfully that Israel lift its economic blockade of Gaza, while Israel demanded also unsuccessfully a full end to rocket fire and progress on the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli corporal who has been in Hamas s captivity for more than two years. Violence had already resumed in the waning days of the cease-fire. After an Israeli raid on November 4 (ostensibly aimed at preventing Hamas s use of tunnels to abduct Israeli soldiers), rocket fire on Israel from Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups in Gaza resumed with greater intensity (see the inset section Palestinian Rocket Attacks from Gaza: Threat Assessment and Israeli Responses below). Some analysts speculated that the cross-border skirmishes and rocket fire that continued into December represented jockeying by both parties for more favorable renegotiating positions as the cease-fire s December 19 expiration approached. 11 On the 19 th, Hamas issued a statement on its website that The cease-fire is over and there will not be a renewal because the Zionist enemy has not respected its conditions. On December 24, approximately 88 rockets were fired into southern Israel from Gaza, followed by another 44 on December The magnitude of this violation of Israeli airspace and territory although it did not cause casualties apparently prompted the Israeli leadership s decision to launch the December 27 air strike and larger offensive. Although it appears that the timing of the conflict s outbreak was driven primarily by the end of the cease-fire, the fact that it occurred during the U.S. presidential transition and on the eve of Israeli elections scheduled for February 2009 (not to mention just two weeks before the possible, although disputed, expiration of Abbas s PA presidential term on January 9, ) has led some observers to speculate that these political factors had at least partial influence on Israel s and Hamas s actions. In any event, it now appears likely that the fighting in and around Gaza could impact near-term political developments See Karin Laub, Analysis: Hamas, Israel Trying to Rewrite Truce, Associated Press, November 17, International Crisis Group, Ending the War in Gaza, Middle East Briefing No. 26, January 5, See Middle East Politics: Prolonging Abu Mazen, Economist Intelligence Unit, November 28, The New York Times has written: Many Middle East experts say Israel timed its move against Hamas, which began with airstrikes on Dec. 27, 24 days before Mr. Bush leaves office, with the expectation of [the Bush Administration s] backing in Washington. Israeli officials could not be certain that President-elect Barack Obama, despite past statements of sympathy for Israel s right of self-defense, would match the Bush administration s unconditional endorsement. Scott Shane, Israel Strikes Before an Ally Departs, New York Times, December 29, Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

11 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š Palestinian Rocket Attacks from Gaza: Threat Assessment and Israeli Responses 18 Since 2001, several Palestinian terrorist groups based in the Gaza Strip have attacked communities in southern and coastal areas of Israel with thousands of indiscriminately fired rockets and mortars. During the second Palestinian intifada or uprising in 2001, Hamas militia members and others fired homemade mortars at Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip and launched the first locally produced Qassam rockets, named after the early 20th century militant leader Shaykh Izz al Din al Qassam. Widely-available household ingredients, such as fertilizer, sugar, alcohol, and fuel oil, serve as propellants for the low-cost Qassam rockets, which are fabricated locally from scrap metal and pipes and armed with smuggled explosives. Teams of engineers, chemists, and machinists have improved the range and payload of the Qassam series rockets over time, and several individuals and facilities associated with rocket research and production operations have been targeted in Israeli military raids. Since 2006, longer-range 122mm Grad rockets and 122mm Grad-style copies, often referred to as Katyushas, have expanded the range of Hamas and its allies beyond relatively small Israeli communities near the Gaza border, such as the town of Sderot (population est. 24,000), to the larger coastal cities of Ashqelon (population est.120,000) and Ashdod (population est. 200,000) and to the Negev city of Beersheva (population est. 185,000). Similar midrange rockets have been fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Al Quds series) and the Popular Resistance Committees (Nasser series). A map showing the approximate range of various Gaza-based rockets and mortars appears as Figure 2 on the next page. Press reports allege that some 122mm rockets fired against Israel have been Grad-style copies made in Iran, while others have been Eastern-bloc editions modified to expand their range and lethality. The longer range Grad rockets are believed to be smuggled into the Gaza Strip via tunnels from Egypt. The approximately 7,000 rockets and mortars fired by Palestinians since 2001 have killed at least 18 Israelis and wounded dozens, while the persistent threat of rocket fire has had a broader negative psychological effect on Israelis living in targeted communities. 15 Some observers estimate that Palestinian militants in Gaza may have had as many as 10,000 rockets at their disposal at the outset of the conflict, up to a third of which may have been Grad-style rockets. In response to ongoing rocket attacks, Israel has invested millions of dollars in both passive and active defense measures, including an advance warning alert system known as Color Red, safe room construction programs in residential areas near Gaza, and the deployment of a new counter-rocket defense system known as Iron Dome. In December 2008, the Israeli cabinet issued final approval for a three-stage plan to build reinforced security rooms in all 8,500 housing units within 2.8 miles of the Gaza Strip. The cost of the program is estimated to be over $200 million. 16 Reports suggest that Israel has budgeted $230 million for the development and procurement of the Iron Dome system; its rocket interceptor costs are estimated at $45,000 each, with a total annual system deployment cost in areas around Gaza estimated at $25 million. Some Israeli military officials and public figures reportedly favor the deployment of a less mobile, but potentially more cost effective directed laser system, based on the work of the joint Israeli-U.S. Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) research program that was terminated in For more detailed information on Israeli rocket defense measures, see Defense Budget Appropriations for U.S.-Israeli Missile Defense Programs below. 15 Toni O'Loughlin and Hazem Balousha, News: Air Strikes on Gaza, The Observer (UK), December 28, 2008; David Isby, Effective anti-qassam defence could be more than six years away, Jane's Missiles and Rockets, January 01, Herb Keinon and Yaakov Katz, Cabinet okays rocket-protection for communities within range, Jerusalem Post, December 8, 2008; Yaakov Lappin and Dan Izenberg, Barak wants government's okay to hit Gaza residential areas, Jerusalem Post, November 10, See Alon Ben-David, Iron Dome advances to meet Qassam threat, Jane's Defence Weekly, March 17, This inset section was written by Christopher M. Blanchard, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs. Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

12 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š Figure 2. Range of Selected Rockets and Mortars Fired from the Gaza Strip Source: Map Resources, adapted by CRS. Data based on reporting by Jane s Missiles and Rockets and Israeli government statements to international media outlets. Note: All ranges listed for weapons are approximate and may vary based on launch sites and the characteristics of individual rockets, most of which are locally produced and some of which are modified from their original foreign designs. Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

13 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š Operation Cast Lead appears to have been planned well in advance. Some Israeli observers have suggested that although the military has unleashed a devastating series of bombings, neither toppling the Hamas regime nor permanently ending all rocket attacks is a realistic goal even with the ground forces that have been inserted. Instead, observers suggest that Operation Cast Lead seeks to severely cripple all aspects of Hamas s presence in Gaza military, economic, and cultural so that it would take several years of rebuilding for Hamas to return to its pre- December 2008 strength. By temporarily disabling Hamas s military capacity, Israel could substantially ease the frequency and intensity of Hamas attacks in the months ahead as it prepares to deploy new, more sophisticated anti-rocket defense systems. With Gaza blockaded by land and sea, Israel has calculated that it would take Hamas significantly longer to rearm and rebuild than it took for Hezbollah after its war with Israel in 2006 (see the inset section Palestinian Rocket Attacks from Gaza: Threat Assessment and Israeli Responses above). Some military experts have suggested that survival is Hamas s main goal, as the organization may try to retain some rocket capability until the fighting wanes. One complicating factor for Israel is time: the longer Operation Cast Lead runs without a definitive outcome in Israel s favor, the more pressure, both internal and external, will grow for a cessation of hostilities. Furthermore, the risk of unintended regional escalation, though it remains low, is always a possibility. A weakened Hamas may be more susceptible to accepting terms of reconciliation offered by its Palestinian rival Fatah (the political movement currently headed by Mahmoud Abbas, who is both President of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)), which has been bolstered by international assistance and Israeli engagement over the past year. The prospects for reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, which many believe to be integral to effective Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, may be undermined by the selective targeting of Hamas and the passive acceptance of the Israeli offensive by Fatah, the PA, and the PLO that many observers claim is apparent despite statements of opposition. 20 The unraveling of the tahdiya or temporary cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that led to the December 2008 outbreak of violence in and around the Gaza Strip was not only a result of shortterm tactical considerations by Israel and Hamas (see The Conflict s Origins above), but 19 This section was written by Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs and Acting Research Manager, Middle East and Africa Section. 20 A Washington Post column has asserted that Abbas s adviser Nimr Hammad told the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar: The one responsible for the massacres is Hamas, and not the Zionist entity, which in its own view reacted to the firing of Palestinian missiles. Robert J. Lieber, Hard Truths About the Conflict, Washington Post, January 1, Abbas has, however, assertively call for an end to fighting since the week of January 5. In one statement, he said that if a cease-fire was rejected, that all parties would be to blame, but singled Israel out as being potentially responsible for perpetuating a waterfall of blood. 21 This section was written by Jim Zanotti, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs. Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

14 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š reflective of the deeply-rooted dilemma posed by Hamas s steady rise in influence over Israeli- Palestinian relations during the last 20 years and more recently in Gaza proper. Because of its militant, anti-israel ideology and its acts of terrorism, Hamas has been politically and financially isolated by Israel, the United States, and other international actors making any engagement with the organization, even through third parties, extremely difficult. Israel has repeatedly asserted that Hamas will remain in isolation until it renounces violence and, more importantly, recognizes Israel s right to exist as a nation-state. Since Hamas s inception, it has maintained its primary base of support and particularly strong influence in the Gaza Strip, even though its current political headquarters is in Damascus, Syria. Hamas s politicization and militarization can be traced to the intifada ( uprising ) that began in the Gaza Strip in 1987 in resistance to the Israeli occupation. Hamas refuses to recognize the right of Israel to exist, refuses to renounce the use of violence, and refuses to consider itself bound by previous agreements reached by the PLO with Israel. For these reasons, the United States designated it as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 1997, and U.S. aid to Palestinians has been tailored to bypass Hamas and Hamas-controlled entities. Hamas s victory in January 2006 Palestinian legislative elections set in motion a chain of events that has led to the current crisis. The refusal of the United States, the European Union, and much of the rest of the world to have direct dealings with or to give financial assistance to a Hamasdominated PA cabinet led to a tense standoff that was only temporarily averted by a February 2007 Hamas-Fatah unity agreement brokered by Saudi Arabia. These tensions contributed to the factional fighting between Hamas and Fatah that led to Hamas s forcible takeover of the Gaza Strip in June In response to the Hamas takeover, PA President Abbas dissolved the Hamasled cabinet and appointed a caretaker technocratic PA government in the West Bank, leading to renewed U.S. and international assistance for the PA in the West Bank that prompted Hamas to tighten its grip on Gaza even further. As the vulnerability of Israeli cities and towns near the Gaza border to mortar and rocket fire from an Hamas-controlled Gaza became clearer, Israel and Hamas indirectly agreed (via Egyptian mediation) to the six-month cease-fire in June In return for a moratorium on attacks, Hamas understood that Israel would open the Gaza border crossings to allow a flow of workers and goods. One ostensible aim of the cease-fire was to facilitate a prisoner exchange agreement Israel s release of a number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Hamas s release of Israeli corporal Gilad Shalit. Yet, as discussed earlier in this report (see The Conflict s Origins above), no such agreement was achieved. For the first five months, the cease-fire held relatively well. Some rockets were fired into Israel, but most were attributed to non-hamas militant groups, and, progressively, Hamas appeared increasingly able and willing to suppress even these attacks. No casualties were reported (only minor property damage was incurred), and Israel refrained from retaliation. Nevertheless, Israel cited the sporadic rocket fire as justification for keeping the border crossings and Gaza s seaport closed to nearly everything but basic humanitarian supplies. Hamas, other Arab leaders, and international organizations involved in aiding Gazan civilians complained that Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

15 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š Israel was reneging on its promises under the agreement. Some in Israel believed that the pressure applied through a blockade on Gaza could squeeze Hamas from power by turning Gazans against the Islamist group, while other observers asserted the exact opposite that confining economically desperate people in Gaza would likely increase their dependence on Hamas. The nearly complete shutdown of the highly export-dependent Gazan economy 22 left Israel and its supporters open to charges that they were knowingly worsening the already-precarious situation of Gaza s population one of the most densely concentrated (Gaza s 1.5 million people live within the territory s 146 square miles) and poorest in the world. The United Nations estimates that at least 80% of Gazans live below the poverty line. Many believe that, all along, both sides considered the temporary cease-fire to be merely an opportunity to prepare more fully for eventual conflict. Accounts of Hamas s military buildup and its use of tunnels from Egypt s Sinai Peninsula for smuggling weapons, and reports describing how Israel devised plans for the Gaza offensive, support this argument. Some commentators have said that giving up on the cease-fire was in both sides interests asserting that Hamas wanted to reclaim the mantle of heroic resister in order to reverse recent erosions in its popularity among Palestinians since its takeover of Gaza, while Israeli leaders wanted to prove their ability to defend Israeli citizens on the eve of national elections. 23 The fighting in Gaza and southern Israel during this conflict has affected both Palestinian and Israeli civilians. Questions have been raised over who is a legitimate target. Rockets from Palestinian militants in Gaza are almost exclusively fired with the aim of killing and terrorizing Israeli civilians. Israel s bombing campaign and ground offensive has targeted Hamas, but some have charged that Israel s targeting of cultural, residential, and governmental sites has disproportionately impacted Gaza s civilian population despite Israel s insistence that these sites are inextricably linked with Hamas s military operations. 25 Israeli officials and media have alleged that Hamas has virtually or actually used Gaza civilians as human shields, citing Hamas s use of homes, mosques, schools, and hospitals for military purposes and its militants immersion in densely-populated areas. The toll exacted goes beyond civilians immediate wellbeing to possible implications for regional politics (see International Response, The General Palestinian Response, and Conclusion: Strategizing an Exit and a Future below) and postconflict reconstruction (see Humanitarian Aid (Including to UNRWA) and Other Economic Assistance to Palestinians below), including concerns over further radicalization on either or both sides. 22 The Palestinian Federation of Industries estimates that 98% of Gaza s industrial operations are now inactive. See The World Bank, Palestinian Economic Prospects: Aid, Access and Reform: Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee, September 22, Daoud Kuttab, Has Israel Revived Hamas? Washington Post, December 30, This section was written by Casey L. Addis, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs. 25 Israel has dropped leaflets, made phone calls and sent SMS (text) messages to warn thousands of civilians of impending attacks in their vicinity, but the damage done to a broad array of potential shelters (including mosques and U.N. buildings) have led some to question whether safe havens from the fighting exist. Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

16 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š In spite of periodic humanitarian relief shipments allowed by Israel, ongoing fighting has further deteriorated the already dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. While casualty and injury figures are difficult to verify, the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that, as of January 14, 1,013 Palestinians have been killed, including 322 children and 76 women, and 4,560 have been injured in the fighting (but OCHA estimated the number of critical injuries to be slightly more than 10% of total injuries as of January 11). The number of displaced persons is estimated between 80,000 and 90,000, including up to 50,000 children. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) is operating 41 shelters housing 37,937 people in the Gaza Strip. Shelters are overcrowded and it is problematic to open new shelters due to security concerns. 26 Access to food, potable water, and services such as electricity and sanitation also are extremely limited. The January 11 OCHA report states that approximately 500,000 of Gaza s 1.5 million residents have no access to running water and that infrastructure damage has raised concerns about contamination of existing water supplies. On January 10, the Gaza City Wastewater treatment plant was reportedly hit by Israeli fire and the extent of the damage is yet unknown. According to U.N. reports, shortages of fuel and food have compounded humanitarian concerns and the functions of relief agencies have been limited because of security concerns. Hospitals are reportedly running on backup generators and, due to shelling, only an estimated 35 of 58 primary health care clinics are open. Health care supplies and staff are also in short supply. The United Nations temporarily suspended deliveries into Gaza on January 8 due to personnel casualties, which U.N. representatives claim occurred despite the scheduled lulls in the fighting intended to facilitate the flow of relief aid and despite coordination with Israeli officials and the IDF. 27 The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) also suspended deliveries into Gaza for a limited time on January 8 out of concerns for its workers safety. At the same time, the ICRC issued an unusually direct statement claiming that the Israeli military had not met its obligations under international humanitarian law in allowing for the care and evacuation of the wounded in connection with shelling damage mentioned above in the Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City (see Major Developments Military, Diplomatic, and Humanitarian ). The January 15 reports of damage sustained by UNRWA s Gaza headquarters and Al Quds Hospital in Gaza City (see Overview of the Conflict above) are likely to intensify concerns that the Israeli military is not distinguishing between military targets and civilian areas with sufficient precision United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Field Updates on Gaza, January 10-11, 2009 and January 14, Available online at ocha_opt_gaza_situation_report_2009_01_11_english.pdf and ish.pdf. 27 United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Field Update on Gaza, January 10-11, Available online at ocha_opt_gaza_situation_report_2009_01_11_english.pdf.. 28 See International Committee of the Red Cross News Release, Gaza: ICRC Demands Urgent Access to Wounded as Israeli Army Fails to Assist Wounded Palestinians, January 8, Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

17 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š As mentioned above (see Overview of the Conflict ), a recent Israeli report alleges that senior Hamas leaders in Gaza are hiding in the basement of Shifa Hospital, Gaza s flagship medical facility (see location on Figure 1). This further fuels allegations that Hamas leaders are willing to endanger civilians to protect themselves, while also raising concerns about a military strike against the facility, which could potentially cause large numbers of civilian casualties and damage or destroy the hospital further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. 29 As of January 14, an estimated 13 Israelis have been killed (four from rocket fire), including four civilians, and approximately 58 civilians have been injured (not counting those treated for shock). 30 Over 600 rocket attacks have been launched by Hamas into southern Israel since the official expiration of the cease-fire on December 19, 2008 according to Israel s Shin Bet, some 565 (plus some 200 mortars) since the beginning of the Israeli offensive on December Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups firing rockets and mortars target Israeli civilians specifically, and some observers argue that the arbitrary nature of these attacks compound the physical danger they represent with severe psychological repercussions that cannot be quantified. 32 The siren alert system used to warn civilians of incoming attacks provides only momentary warning time for Israelis to head to shelters, and because the rockets are fired indiscriminately, virtually no place can be safely ruled out as a target further contributing to Israeli anxieties. Since Operation Cast Lead started on December 27, 2008, Hamas rockets have hit a school, open markets, homes, and other sites in Sderot, Gedera, Ashdod, Ashqelon, Beersheva, and elsewhere in southern Israel. As mentioned above (see Major Developments Military, Diplomatic, and Humanitarian ), northern Israel has also been hit by rockets originating from Lebanon on January 8 and January 14, prompting concerns among Israelis in the north that they might have to be on indefinite alert. The government of Israel has stated that it is the right of its people to feel safe in their homes, and other analysts have alluded to the expectation of normal life Amos Harel, Sources: Hamas Leaders Hiding in Basement of Israeli-Built Hospital in Gaza, Ha aretz, January 12, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Field Update on Gaza, January 14, Available online at ish.pdf. 31 Yanir Yagna, Gaza Militants Fire at Least 14 Rockets into Southern Israel, Ha aretz, January 14, Israeli Embassy Press Release, January 10, Available online at 33 Richard Cohen, A Conflict Hamas Caused, Washington Post, January 6, Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

18 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š The worldwide response to the Gaza crisis has been characterized by consistent calls for an end to the violence and by concern over the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Protests broke out in numerous Middle Eastern and other international capitals, and the Arab media have continuously aired footage of casualties in Gaza. The crisis also has exacerbated existing tensions between countries in the region with a relatively pro-western orientation like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia and other countries and non-state actors like Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. European and other Western countries have generally faulted Hamas for starting the crisis but some, including France, also have criticized the Israeli response as disproportionate. Much of the international community outside the Middle East has expressed concerns about the humanitarian situation in Gaza but has generally placed the blame for the current violence squarely with Hamas. Nevertheless, all parties have called for an end to or, at the very least, a deescalation of the violence. On January 6, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, with support from France and Turkey, put forth a proposed initiative to address the situation in Gaza. While some specifics of the proposal are still ambiguous, the initiative included a call for an immediate cease-fire to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian supplies and an urgent meeting between Israelis and Palestinians to agree on specific arrangements to ensure a durable cease-fire, secure Gaza s borders from arms shipments, and reopen all crossing points into Gaza. Delegations from both Hamas and Israel were scheduled to meet separately with Egyptian officials in Cairo during the week of January 12 to discuss the proposal. Libya, a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) member, called for a special session of the UNSC after the Israeli air strikes began. The UNSC met on December 28 and issued a statement expressing serious concern over the situation in Gaza and calling for an immediate halt to all violence. The statement also included a call for expanded humanitarian assistance to the people in Gaza. According to the Washington Post, a stronger UNSC statement urging an immediate cease-fire was blocked on January 4 by the United States. 35 As the fighting wore on for a second week, the UNSC convened on January 8 and adopted Resolution 1860 by a vote of 14-0 with one abstention (the United States). Resolution 1860 calls for an immediate, durable and fully respected ceasefire, leading to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and: 34 This section was written by Casey L. Addis, Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs. 35 Sudarsan Raghavan, Israeli Forces Push Deeper Into Gaza Strip, Washington Post, January 5, Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ

19 œ ŠŽ Š Š Šœ Œ Š Š calls upon Member States to intensify efforts to provide arrangements and guarantees in Gaza in order to sustain a durable ceasefire and calm, including to prevent illicit trafficking in arms and ammunition and to ensure the sustained re-opening of the crossing points on the basis of the 2005 Agreement on Movement and Access between the Palestinian Authority and Israel; and in this regard, welcomes the Egyptian initiative, and other regional and international efforts that are under way. 36 In a January 12 speech in Ashqelon, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert claimed that his personal intervention with President Bush was responsible for changing the U.S. vote on Resolution 1860 from a yes to an abstention: In the night between Thursday and Friday, when the secretary of state [Condoleezza Rice] wanted to lead the vote on a ceasefire at the Security Council, we did not want her to vote in favour. I said get me President Bush on the phone. They said he was in the middle of giving a speech in Philadelphia. I said I didn't care. I need to talk to him now. He got off the podium and spoke to me. I told him the United States could not vote in favour. It cannot vote in favour of such a resolution. He immediately called the secretary of state and told her not to vote in favour... [Secretary Rice] was left shamed. A resolution that she prepared and arranged, and in the end she did not vote in favour. 37 A State Department official has denied Olmert s claim, stating that the abstention was planned and that The government of Israel does not make US policy. 38 After the vote, Secretary Rice explained the U.S. abstention by stating that the United States thought it important to see the outcomes of the Egyptian mediation efforts in order to see what this resolution might have been supporting. 39 Both Israel and Hamas rejected the call for an immediate ceasefire; Israel responded by calling Resolution 1860 unworkable and fighting continued. Both sides also expressed concerns about the Egyptian proposal. As Israel intensified its ground operation on January 10-11, reports circulated that Israel was planning to use the Egyptian-facilitated talks during the week of January 12 to demand an end to smuggling along the Philadelphi Corridor at the Gaza-Egypt border UNSC Resolution 1860, adopted January 8, Rice Shame-Faced by Bush Over UN Gaza Vote: Olmert, Agence France Presse, January 12, Ibid. However, on January 9, a day after the U.N. vote and three days before Olmert publicly claimed to have personally influenced the U.S. vote, Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riad Malki voiced his surprise that the United States had not voted in favor of Resolution Malki said he had been told that the Americans would vote in favor, but that just prior to the vote, Secretary Rice came into the Security Council chamber and apologetically informed the Saudi foreign minister that she would abstain, but would clarify later that she supported the resolution nonetheless: What happened in the last 10 or 15 minutes, what kind of pressure she received, from whom, this is really something that maybe we will know about later. Barak Ravid, State Department: Olmert Never Told U.S. to Abstain from U.N. Vote on Gaza, haaretz.com, January 13, UNSC Document SC/9596, January 8, Andrew Whitley, director of UNRWA s New York office, said in a January 13 panel discussion in Washington that the United States and other members of the UNSC were responsible for removing provisions from Resolution 1860 that were in the original Arab League proposal, which would have called for an end to the blockade of Gaza and for all sides to pay more attention to the needs of civilians and to international humanitarian law. Remarks by Andrew Whitley, Americans for Peace Now panel discussion, Prospects for Progress Toward Israeli-Palestinian Peace Under the Obama Administration and in the Wake of the Gaza War, Washington, DC, January 13, United States Open Source Center (OSC) Document GMP , IDF Reserves Poised; Egypt Waits for Hamas to Seek Deal; Davutoglu in Cairo, Ma ariv Electronic Edition, Tel Aviv, January 9, Žœœ Š ŽœŽŠ Œ Ž Ÿ ŒŽ