Nuclear Energy Today International Status

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Nuclear Energy Today International Status"

Lionel Bryant
5 years ago
Views:

1 Spanish Nuclear Forum Complutense University Summer course Nuclear Energy Today International Status Thierry Dujardin Deputy Director Science and Development OECD Nuclear Energy Agency THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 1

2 Overview Current Situation Nuclear energy and sustainable development Natural resources Key Challenges Outlook Economics Innovative systems Concluding Remarks THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 2

3 Energy World Scene (1) Growing needs of electricity, heat, hydrogen, potable water... Increased energy efficiency needed Fossil fuel resources limited Fossil fuel use affects the environment Renewable sources bigger role, but limited overall contribution THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 3

4 Energy World Scene (2) WEC Sydney (9/04) Keep all energy options open No technology should be idolised or demonised IAEA Ministerial Conference - Paris(3/05) With OECD & NEA Greenpeace Co-Founder Calls N-Power Environmentally Safe and Sound (4/05) US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 4

5 Energy Policy and Sustainable Development Energy policy Sustainable development The 3 E s 3 dimensions Economics Economics Environment Environment Energy security Social THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 5

6 Nuclear Energy and the Economic Dimension of Sustainable Development ~ 24% of OECD electricity generated by nuclear Low marginal cost of existing nuclear units Increasing load factors Uprating of plant capacities Low cost of lifetime extension Long term stability of generation costs Very low sensitivity of nuclear KWh to natural uranium cost THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 6

7 World Average Nuclear Power Plant Availability Factor (%) 83 Source : IAEA THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 7

8 Electricity Cost Sensitivity to Fuel Price Volatility + 75 % Gas price x % Uran ium price x 2 GAS-FIRED PLANT NUCLEAR PLANT THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 8

9 Nuclear Energy and the Environmental Dimension of Sustainable Development Efficient use of natural resources Practically no greenhouse gas emissions Small volumes of solid waste Feasibility of final disposals Important social concern THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 9

10 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity Production Chains (g C/kWh equiv.co 2 ) Lignite Coal Oil Gas Solar pv Hydro Biomass Wind Nuclear THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 10

11 Nuclear Energy and the Social Dimension of Sustainable Development Human capital, scientific knowledge, highly qualified manpower Man-made asset, technology intensive industry Institutional framework, comprehensive laws and regulations Security of supply reduced dependence, especially on oil and gas geopolitical diversity of natural resources and technologies domestic source of energy THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 11

12 Uranium Resources (1) Plentiful Secure Expandable Plentiful ~ 14.4 MT Known conventional resources 4.6 MT Est. additional & speculative res. 9.8 MT Consumption ~ MT/y Market dominated by secondary sources until ~ 2003 Former military applications overproduction Depressed prices Low investment in exploration and production capacity Change in trends since 2 years THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 12

13 Uranium Prices & Exploration THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 13

14 Uranium Proven World Reserves (as of ) Secure Uzbekistan 61.5 (2.5%) Ukraine 34.6 (1.4%) Canada (13.6%) USA (4.2%) Kazakhstan (15.7%) Russia (5.1%) Algeria 19.5 (0.8%) < 80 USD/kgU Mongolia 46.2 (1.9%) China 35.1 (1.4%) Niger (4.2%) Brazil 86.2 (3.5%) Others 55.4 (2.3%) THD / 5 July 2005 Namibia (5.7%) South Africa (9.4%) El Escorial, Spain Australia (28.6%) 14

15 Uranium Resources (2) Plentiful Secure Expandable Expandable Conventional enough for ~ 200 years Unconventional resources Phosphates ~ 22 MT Seawater ~ 4000 MT Technology exist to improve energy yield (over x 50 with the fast neutrons reactors and closed fuel cycles) Natural uranium ~ 0.7 % U235, 99.3 % U238 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 15

16 Nuclear Energy Today in OECD Countries Mature technology Important operating experience Robust R&D infrastructure Current nuclear power plants are competitive Externalities Large and diversified industrial sector THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 16

17 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 17

18 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 18

19 Externalities Costs that are born by the society as a whole rather than by consumers Detrimental to global economic, social and environmental optimisation Health and environmental impacts of release of waste - CO2, radioactive waste Routine operation (not included in nuclear costs) Decommissioning & dismantling (included) Insurance (severe accidents) Policy factors not reflected in market prices THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 19

20 External Costs of Electricity Generation (m /kwh) Wind Solar PV Source: ExternE 1999 Biomass 0-7 Nuclear 3 Gas 16 Oil 33 Coal 39 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 20

21 World Situation Important contrast between regions and within regions Asia Japan, Korea - on-going China - huge perspectives Others - still under consideration Europe Finland, France - key policy Phase out policies under question Strong opponents North America USA - NP2010 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 21

22 Key Challenges Environment Safe and socially accepted management of radioactive waste, especially HLW Economics Reducing financial risk of new investments Security Proliferation resistance and physical protection and always safety and reliability THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 22

23 Nuclear Energy and Society Bjorn Wahlström THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 23

24 Radioactive waste 3 categories : low, intermediate and high level Disposal of LLW and most ILW, mature practice HLW ~ 1% of total volume, ~ 99% of total radioactivity Deep geological disposal considered as practicable by the scientific and technical community Little societal consensus Actual risk vs perceived risk Ethical considerations Greater involvement of stakeholders and better communication needed THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 24

25 Primary Energy Demand (Gtep) %/y + 59% +0.9%/y % Source: AIE WEO 2004 World OECD THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 25

26 Electricity Consumption (10 3 TWh/y) %/y + 97% %/y + 46% 5 0 World OECD Source: AIE WEO 2004 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 26

27 Investments for the electricity sector [ ] Additional Capacity (GWe) Investment for plants (billion $) Investment for transmission & distribution (billion $) Source: AIE WEO 2004 OECD World THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 27

28 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 28

29 What is the Study? 6 th edition in a series initiated in 1982 Joint IEA/NEA endeavor Based on national data Relying on a common approach Providing Reference information Analysis of cost elements Support to decision making THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 29

30 Framework Cost data provided by participants Technical characteristics Construction costs and schedule and O&M costs Fuel price projections Common levelised cost methodology Common assumptions Discount rates [5%, 10%] Economic lifetime [40 years for most plants] Load factor for base-load plants [85%] THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 30

31 Scope of the Study ~ 130 power plants in 21 countries Coal, gas, nuclear Cogeneration Wind, hydro, solar Others (biomass, waste incineration,...) Cost elements supported by electricity producers Investment, including refurbishment, decommissioning and interest during construction O & M Fuel, including waste management and disposal THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 31

32 Out of the Scope Transmission & distribution costs Business risks Externalities Impacts of CO 2 or carbon tax Damage from residual pollution Value of security of supply Site/project specific factors THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 32

33 Overnight Construction Costs [USD/kWe] 2500 Coal 2500 IGCC Gas IGCC + CO2 capture LNG CAN-C USA-C1 USA-C2 CZE-C1 CZE-C2 CZE-C3 CZE-C4 DNK-C FIN-C FRA-C1 FRA-C2 DEU-C1 DEU -C2 DEU -C3 DEU -C4 SVK-C1 SVK-C2 TUR-C1 TUR -C2 TUR -C3 JPN-C KOR-C1 KOR-C2 BGR-C* ROU-C* ZAF-C1 ZAF-C2 CAN-G USA-G1 USA-G2 BEL-G CZE-G FRA-G DEU-G GRC-G1 GRC-G2 ITA-G1 ITA-G2 ITA-G3 NLD-G PRT-G SVK-G CHE-G1 CHE -G2 CHE -G3 TUR-G1 TUR-G2 JPN-G KOR-G ZAF-G 2500 Nuclear 2500 Wind Offshore CAN-N USA-N CZE-N FIN-N FRA-N DEU-N NLD-N SVK-N CHE-N JPN-N KOR-N1 KOR-N2 ROU-N USA-W AUT-W BEL-W CZE-W DNK-W1 DNK -W2 DNK -W3 DEU-W1 DEU -W2 DEU -W3 GRC-W1 GRC -W2 GRC -W3 GRC -W4 GRC -W5 ITA-W1 ITA-W2 NLD-W PRT-W THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 33

34 Generation Costs at 5% [USD/MWh] Coal Fuel O&M Investment Fuel O&M Investment Gas CAN-C USA-C1 USA-C2 CZE-C1 CZE-C2 CZE-C3 CZE-C4 DNK-C FIN-C FRA-C1 FRA-C2 DEU-C1 DEU-C2 DEU-C3 DEU-C4 SVK-C1 SVK-C2 TUR-C1 TUR-C2 TUR-C3 JPN-C KOR-C1 KOR-C2 BGR-C ROU-C ZAF-C1 ZAF-C Nuclear Fuel O&M Investment Wind O&M Investment CAN-N USA-N CZE-N FIN-N FRA-N DEU-N NLD-N SVK-N CHE-N JPN-N KOR-N1 KOR-N2 ROU-N USA-W AUT-W BE-W CZE-W DNK-W1 DNK-W2 DNK-W3 DEU-W1 DEU-W2 DEU-W3 GRC-W1 GRC-W2 GRC-W3 GRC-W4 GRC-W5 ITA-W 1 ITA-W 2 NLD-W PRT-W CAN-G USA-G1 USA-G2 BEL-G CZE-G FRA-G DEU-G GRC-G1 GRC-G2 ITA-G1 ITA-G2 ITA-G3 NLD-G PRT-G SVK-G CHE-G1 CHE-G2 CHE-G3 TUR-G1 TUR-G2 JPN-G KOR-G ZAF-G1 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 34

35 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 35 Generation Costs at 10% [USD/MWh] CAN-C USA-C1 USA-C2 CZE-C1 CZE-C2 CZE-C3 CZE-C4 DNK-C FIN-C FRA-C1 FRA-C2 DEU-C1 DEU-C2 DEU-C3 DEU-C4 SVK-C1 SVK-C2 TUR-C1 TUR-C2 TUR-C3 JPN-C KOR-C1 KOR-C2 BGR-C ROU-C ZAF-C1 ZAF-C2 Fuel O&M Investment Coal CAN-G USA-G1 USA-G2 BEL-G CZE-G FRA-G DEU-G GRC-G1 GRC-G2 ITA-G1 ITA-G2 ITA-G3 NLD-G PRT-G SVK-G CHE-G1 CHE-G2 CHE-G3 TUR-G1 TUR-G2 JPN-G KOR-G ZAF-G1 Fuel O&M Investment Gas USA-W AUT-W BE-W CZE-W DNK-W1 DNK-W2 DNK-W3 DEU-W1 DEU-W2 DEU-W3 GRC-W1 GRC-W2 GRC-W3 GRC-W4 GRC-W5 ITA-W1 ITA-W2 NLD-W PRT-W O&M Investment Wind CAN-N USA-N CZE-N FIN-N FRA-N DEU-N NLD-N SVK-N CHE-N JPN-N KOR-N1 KOR-N2 ROU-N Fuel O&M Investment Nuclear

36 Cost Ranges* [USD/MWh] Gas 5% Gas 10% 40 Coal 10% Nuclear 10% Coal 5% 30 Nuclear 5% 20 Gas 5% Gas 10% Nucl ear 10% Coal 10% 10 Coal 5% Nucl ear 5% 0 * Excluding the 5% highest and 5% lowest values THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 36

37 Cost Ratios at 5% 10 countries provided data for coal and gas and/or coal and nuclear and/or gas and nuclear Coal is cheaper* than gas in 7 countries Nuclear is cheaper* than gas in 9 countries Nuclear is cheaper* than coal in 7 countries * By a margin of 10% or more THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 37

38 Cost Ratios at 10% 10 countries provided data for coal and gas and/or coal and nuclear and/or gas and nuclear Coal is cheaper* than gas in 5 countries** Coal is cheaper than nuclear in 1 country Gas is cheaper* than coal in 1 country Nuclear is cheaper* than coal in 7 countries Nuclear is cheaper* than gas in 8 countries** * By a margin of 10% or more ** For most combination of plants THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 38

39 Ratio Coal/Gas GAS CHEAPER COAL CHEAPER 5% discount rate 10% discount rate 0.3 CAN USA-C1/G1 USA-C2/G2 CZE-C2 CZE-C4 FRA-C1 DEU-C2/G DEU-C4/G SVK-C1 TUR-C1/G2 TUR-C2/G2 TUR-C3/G2 JPN KOR-C1/G ZAF-C2/G THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 39

40 Ratio Coal/Nuclear NUCLEAR CHEAPER 5% discount rate 10% discout rate COAL CHEAPER 0.7 CAN USA-C1 USA-C2 CZE-C1 CZE-C2 CZE-C3 CZE-C4 FIN FRA-C1 FRA-C2 DEU-C1 DEU-C2 DEU-C3 DEU-C4 SVK-C1 SVK-C2 JPN KOR-C1/N1 KOR-C1/N2 KOR-C2/N2 KOR-C2/N1 ROU THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 40

41 Ratio Gas/Nuclear NUCLEAR CHEAPER 5% discount rate 10% discount rate GAS CHEAPER 0.8 CAN USA-G1 USA-G2 CZE FRA DEU NLD SVK CHE-G1 CHE-G2 CHE-G3 JPN KOR-N1 KOR-N2 THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 41

42 Outcomes Data base on electricity generation costs Analysis of cost factors Specific issues addressed in appendices to the report Integration of wind power in grids Investment risks CO 2 emission trading Generation technologies Valuing heat from CHP THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 42

43 Findings No technology/source is always cheaper for base load electricity generation Cogeneration is gaining momentum Wind power is the renewable source attracting the most interest Electricity generation costs are decreasing owing to technology progress and competition THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 43

44 How to Address Challenges Implement ambitious and comprehensive R&D programmes Enhance international co-operation Take advantage of existing infrastructures Generation IV - Fusion THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 44

GIF Generation IV International Forum To foster collaborative R&D aiming at developing future generation nuclear energy systems Euratom joined (7/2003)

45 GIF Generation IV International Forum To foster collaborative R&D aiming at developing future generation nuclear energy systems Euratom joined (7/2003) 8 common goals sustainability economics safety and reliability proliferation resistance and physical protection THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 45

46 Evolution of Nuclear Power THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 46

47 6 systems selected R&D planning viability performance demonstration THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 47

Generation IV Systems Acronym Spectrum Fuel cycle SFR Sodium

fast closed GFR Gas Cooled Fast Reactor fast closed VHTR Very

Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor thermal & fast once-t.

48 Generation IV Systems Acronym Spectrum Fuel cycle SFR Sodium Cooled Fast Reactor fast closed LFR Lead Alloy Cooled Reactor fast closed GFR Gas Cooled Fast Reactor fast closed VHTR Very High Temperature Reactor thermal once-through SCWR Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor thermal & fast once-t. & closed MSR Molten Salt Reactor thermal closed THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 48

49 Rationale for Selection Hopes / Promises of significant progress in Economy Safety & Reliability Sustainability Physical protection and non-proliferation Missions Electricity Hydrogen, Desalination, Process heat Variety Innovation, leverage on R&D needs National priorities Timing THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 49

VHTR Very High Temperature Reactor Thermal spectrum, once-through uranium cycle Prismatic block / pebble bed fuels Highly ranked in economics

50 VHTR Very High Temperature Reactor Thermal spectrum, once-through uranium cycle Prismatic block / pebble bed fuels Highly ranked in economics (efficiency > 50%) Hydrogen production & other process-heat applications Above 1000 C Fuels and materials Safety (transient) THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 50

51 SCWR Supercritical Water Cooled Reactor Open cycle & thermal / closed & fast spectrum High pressure, High temperature (>22.1 Mpa, 374 C) Highly ranked in economics (thermal efficiency, plant simplification) Electricity production 500/550 C Corrosion and stress Materials Water chemistry THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 51

52 MSR Molten Salt Reactor Thermal, epithermal spectrum, closed fuel cycle No need for fuel fabrication, operates at low pressure Excellent performance in waste burn down 700/800 C Molten salt chemistry and handling Materials Fuel cycle THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 52

53 Fast Neutrons Reactors with Closed Fuel Cycles Strong advantages in terms of sustainability Breeding Better use of natural resources Burning Better management of Plutonium and minor actinides Attractive passive safety characteristics Missions : electricity & management of actinides Gas, Na, Pb-Bi parallel options THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 53

54 Radiotoxicity and Spent Fuel Management Relative radiotoxicity Relative radiotoxicity Spent fuel (Pu + MA + FP) Natural uranium ore FP MA + FP Time (years) THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 54

GIF Fast Reactors Gas Fast Reactor 850 C /

55 GIF Fast Reactors Gas Fast Reactor 850 C / high P. New fuel, materials Core design Helium turbine Sodium Fast Reactor 550 C / low P. Lead Fast Reactor 550/800 C / low P. Fuels and materials Lead or lead alloys handling THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 55

56 Sodium-cooled Fast reactors (SFR) The most developed up to now Technological experience (France, Japan, UK, Russia, USA) Challenges Capital cost reduction Passive safety (transient) and reliability Strengthened proliferation resistance Industrial demonstration of pyroprocessing THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 56

57 Concluding Remarks on Generation IV 3 clear assets A common wish to favor a nuclear renaissance An international robust framework to develop the needed R&D A consensus towards the fast neutrons family with closed cycles The Generation IV initiative is an outstanding tool to help in broadening the opportunities for the use of nuclear energy in a sustainable development perspective and also a mean to bring young scientists and engineers in the nuclear sector THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 57

58 Nuclear Fusion (1) Fission: splitting of heavy atomic nucleus Fusion: combining light nuclei to form more massive nuclei Sun Hydrogen Helium million C Earth Deuterium + Tritium Helium+n+E Major challenge: understanding and control of plasma Containment magnetic or inertial Impurities THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 58

59 Nuclear Fusion (2) Potential advantages of fusion reactors More or less unlimited supply of fuel Deuterium in water Tritium produced from lithium Inherently safe Only small amounts of long-lived highly radioactive waste ( but tritium!) Unable to produce fissile materials Large international co-operation ITER No significant contribution before the second half of the century THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 59

60 Concluding Remarks (1) Energy needs are huge, especially in developing countries No ideal or magic solution All technologies will be needed No opposition between renewable and nuclear energy From a sustainable development perspective, nuclear energy has a major role to play in the 21st century global warming security of supply diversity of supply & price stability THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 60

61 Concluding Remarks (2) Competitiveness not the most crucial issue Innovative technology is required and under development Increased temperature hydrogen, economics Fast neutrons family & closed fuel cycles sustainability (resources & waste management) Existing infrastructures (equipment and teams) are valuable assets THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 61

62 Concluding Remarks (3) Enhanced international co-operation needed R&D effectiveness Public acceptance OECD/NEA, promoter of international cooperation, willing to help Experience of joint projects GIF technical secretariat Dealing adequately with the societal concerns is the key issue for the future of nuclear energy THD / 5 July 2005 El Escorial, Spain 62

MR. SPEAKER: The hon. the Government House Leader.

May 3, 2012 HOUSE OF ASSEMBLY PROCEEDINGS Vol. XLVII No. 26 MR. SPEAKER: The hon. the Government House Leader. MR. KENNEDY: Thank you, Mr. Speaker. Mr. Speaker, I am going to use my twenty minutes today