N U M U N X V Y O U H A V E T H E F L O O R A P R I L , Cabinet of Somalia BACKGROUND GUIDE

Transcription

1 N U M U N X V Y O U H A V E T H E F L O O R A P R I L , Cabinet of Somalia BACKGROUND GUIDE

2 Introduction Ministers of the Somali Cabinet, Turmoil continues to grow in Somalia, stemming from extreme levels of violence and poverty. The people are looking to us, their leaders, to help them in their time of acute need. Each member of the Council of Ministers of the Federal Government of Somalia has a specialized focus in order for Somalia to function efficiently, effectively, and for the benefit of its people. I am looking to you, my cabinet, in times of crisis to aid my decision-making for these challenges which loom so heavily over the lives of the Somali people. In a time of war and instability, all eyes are turned towards this cabinet to see which steps the country shall take. As a cabinet, we are called upon to act swiftly in the face of peril. This dossier is presented to you with the understanding that you will approach the tasks ahead of us with composure and confidence to ameliorate the lives of our people. Every issue you will face has multiple, delicate facets, and one misstep can lead to the deaths of thousands. As a state, Somalia has greatly limited resources, and the economic and humanitarian implications of our actions must be considered before all others. I have faith in you to lead us through these troubled times. As a member of the Somali Cabinet, you have been called upon to face crises as a committee, invoking each of your specializations in order to collaborate efficiently 2

3 and cohesively. Working diplomatically with your fellow ministers, you must propose directives to fend off the imposing threats of chaos and violence. The lives of millions are in your hands, and you have been chosen for your positions for a reason. Both topics at hand feature issues that are highly correlated, and will require intelligent, dynamic solutions to see meaningful change. A country is only as strong as its institutions, and the solutions you formulate as a committee are contingent upon meaningful institution-building to restore order and normalcy to a nation that lacked stability for half a century. The Somali people and the greater east African community are counting on this committee to format actionable solutions that will restore Somalia to its historical prosperity. Godspeed, Hassan Ali Khayre, Prime Minister of the Federal Republic of Somalia Topic 1: Somaliland, Puntland, and lack of central Governance Historical Background A rich history of trade between the wealthy city state of Mogadishu and other Somali sultanates defined the early history of the nation. Somalia s location on the Horn of 3

4 Africa ensure active participation in the Monsoon Marketplace of the Indian ocean saw relative prosperity in its early history as it experienced rule by different different groups including the Omanis, Ottomans, and various local Arab sultanates century since the arrival of Islam in the 7th century, prior to the arrival of Europeans in the 19th century. 1 The modern borders of Somalia emerged from a union between Italian Somaliland and British Somaliland in 1960, and Somalia s modern history has been riddled with war, internal strife, and strongmen plaguing its stability. During the early Cold War, its socialist-aligned government could rely upon the global hegemons to ensure its success, and allied particularly with the USSR. When Somalia invaded Ethiopia in the Ogaden war in the late 1970s, the American and Soviet governments reversed their positions of support. Somalia was on the cusp of victory in 1977 when the USSR intervened, and ultimately pushed the Somali forces out of the Ogaden region of Ethiopia, thus fully dispelling their forces from the country by This intervention prompted the Somali government to seek new allies, and they naturally aligned with the Soviets geopolitical rival, the United States. This reversal of partnership led the way for the reinstitution of totalitarian rule by the aging President Mohamed Siad Barre. Soviet forces repelled the Somali attack while the United States temporarily bolstered the Somali government. 1 The History of Somalia, Njoku, R, 2013, Greenwood, Santa Barbara, CA 2 Ethiopia vs. Somalia, The Polynational War Memorial, 4

5 In 1979, the government, faced with a great degree of civil unrest through Somalia and particular dissatisfaction with the way the government was ruling, created and passed a new constitution, opening the floor to elections for the People s Assembly. 3 Societal factionalism and clan alliance helped propel the unrest, and should be a facet of the conflict closely analyzed by this committee. Regardless, due to Barre s iron grip on power within the government, these elections did not take place until the 1980s, when the ruling Somali Revolutionary Socialist Party s politburo was disbanded and replaced with the Supreme Revolutionary Council. 4 Despite giving up some of his power through the new constitution, Barre s presidency continued as he was elected to another term at the end of Despite his reelection, civil unrest continued to grow with blame being particularly placed upon Barre and his dictatorship. In response to this growing civil unrest, Barre s totalitarianism only grew, and crackdowns on civil liberties became increasingly harsh in the following years. Regional and ideological splinter groups, many of which funded by or otherwise aided by Ethiopia, began to strengthen throughout the 1980 s as the federal 3 The Somali Democratic Republic Constitution of 1979, The People s Assembly, 4 Supreme Revolutionary Council, The U.S. Library of Congress, 5 Mohamed Siad Barre, Encyclopedia Brittanica, 5

6 government began to crumble. 6 By 1988, civil war had erupted. President Siad Barre was deposed in 1991 and the nation fractured into factional violence and regional succession. Somaliland declared formal separation from Somalia in 1991, and the Puntland (a region between Somaliland in the north and Somalia in the south) became a flashpoint for territorial disputes and a haven for insurgents. To this day, the Puntland is known for its piracy which plagues shipping routes in the region, and Somaliland remains unrecognized by any country or international organization despite having achieved relative stability and advancement as a quasi-state. 7 Somalia s descent into civil war soon brought about an era of failed interventions by international actors. By 1992, Somalia s warring clans had caused a famine resulting in over 300,000 deaths, and it prompted an international response. United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOMI) failed to quell the violence or alleviate the famine; the United States authorized Operation Restore Hope by the United Task Force (UNITAF) in late While this second effort proved successful, by 1993 relations with allied clans had disintegrated. Nineteen US soldiers were murdered in Mogadishu (as depicted in Black Hawk Down), resulting in the total 6 Troubled Ethopia-Somalia History haunts Horn of Africa, Barry Malone, 7 Emil, A, and Baraise, A, 2006, The Somali conflict : root causes, obstacles, and peace-building strategies, African Security Review, Volume 15, Issue 1,, p

7 withdrawal of United States troops followed by UN withdrawal two years later. Between 1991 and 2004, fifteen governments came and went. The period of failed transitional governments culminated in a US-backed invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia to remove the Islamic Courts Union from power in This defeated Islamist organization fractured into contemporary terrorist organizations including Al-Shabaab. In addition to the various clans vying for power, insurgents without defined territorial claims now added a new dimension to the broader Somali conflict. Ethiopia again invaded Somalia in 2011 to confront the threat of al-shabaab, which had thrived in the south of Somalia, outside the range of Mogadishu s Transitional Federal Government s enforceable power. Concerns over the growing number of international trade ships attacked by pirates in the Gulf of Aden prompted the UN to allow countries to send ships into Somali water for counter-piracy purposes. 8 In 2009, Al-Shabab, an extremist Islamist insurgency that continues to wreak havoc in Eastern Africa, began to make significant territorial gains in the southern part of the country. 9 In 2012, the first Somali parliament in nearly 20 years is sworn in. Immediately afterward, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud takes power in the first presidential election since Somalia Profile - Timeline. BBC News, BBC, 4 Sept. 2017, IBID 10 IBID 7

8 Current Situation The civil war in Somalia still continues in present day. The current fighting is concentrated in the southern part of the country, which has resulted in many civilian deaths and displacements. 11 The al-shabaab terrorist organization also continues to be a threat to Somalia s national security. In particular, the violence and terrorism along the Somali-Kenyan border has grown due to al-shabaab recruitment in Kenya. The organization has since allied itself with al-qaeda, and has become a continental rival to the Islamic State (ISIS). Al- Shabab has its own multinational group of aligned African terror organizations, and has promulgated its goal of implementing its own extremely radical interpretation of Islam. 12 Multinational terror alliances will be a critical factor of this committees debate. Al-Qaeda s alliance with al-shabaab and Islamic State s alliance with Nigeria s Boko Haram should be analyzed. Al-Shabab is most international known for its infamous in the 2015 Garissa University attack in Kenya, in which 148 people were killed. 13 Despite many reforms being put in place by the federal government of Somalia and foreign entities, instability still grips the nation in the midst of its civil conflict. Significant power in the nation remains outside of the 11 Somalia Civil War, GlobalSecurity.org, 12 Gaffey, Conor. How Al-Shabab Overtook Boko Haram to become Africa s Dealiest Militants. Newsweek. June 2, Hilary Kimuyu, It s two years after Garissa University attack, Nairobi News, April 2, 2017, 8

9 hands of the government, which certainly does not have the Weberian monopoly on violence required to maintain control of the nation. Somaliland and the Puntland remain with a high degree of autonomy, and al-shabab maintains a geographically significant presence as it continues a campaign of terror both domestically and in neighboring Kenya. 14 Government and Leadership Since its implementation in 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia has attempted to create a central government to reunite the country that has been divided under essentially anarchist rule since the beginning of the civil war. This new central government is officially recognized by foreign countries and occupies Somalia s seat in the United Nations and the African Union. 15 As of February 2017, the elected president is Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo Mohamed, who holds both Somali and American citizenship. 16 Mohamed previously held the position of Prime Minister of Somalia from November 2010 until June In his first 50 days in office, Mohamed enacted reforms including creating a code of ethics for the Cabinet, implementing an Anti-Corruption Commission to oversee the actions of public 14 Al-Shabaab in Somalia: The History and Ideology of a Militant Islamist Group, Hansen, S, 2013, Oxford University Press, New York, NY 15 Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Relations, Somali Gov, 16 The World Factbook: Somalia, CIA, 17 IBID 9

10 officials, and monitoring federal spending. In regards to the civil war, Mohamed worked with AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) to regain control of Mogadishu and sent one thousand government troops to work with AMISOM in the hopes of re-gaining more territory. 18 He has also expressed preparedness to talk to the al-shabaab insurgents and attempt to negotiate peace. 19 Despite this, the government s attempts to limit the effects of terrorism and bring peace to the country have been largely ineffective. This has resulted in bombings and terrorist attacks on Mogadishu. 20 The Somali government has made great development toward integrating the country and repairing the damage wrought by terrorist forces, but still has progress to be made. Foreign Involvement Many foreign nations and entities have become involved in the Somali civil war as it has progressed over the years. The United Nations is still currently involved in efforts to create peace and stability in Somalia. The UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) was established in June 2013 to encourage national reunification, provide 18 Somalia - Prime Minister Addresses General Debate, 72nd Session, United Nations, September 22, 2017, ( 19 Somalia country profile, BBC, September 4, 2017, Amanda Sperber, Out of Tragedy, An Opportunity for Somalia, October 17, 2017, 10

11 policy advice to the fledgling government, and monitor the human rights situation. 21 Under UNSOM, Somalia s federalism process has been greatly improved; however, there is still much work to do in the areas of national security and economic recovery. 22 The United States has been involved in the Somali conflict, mainly by providing troops, since 1992 when the UN first adopted the UNOSOM mission. Most recently, on March 30th 2017, American president Donald Trump approved a plan that would allow AFRICOM (United States Africa Command) to increase counter-terrorism strikes. 23 This allows for airstrikes in areas that had been previously placed under protection, an action which Pentagon officials intend to help destroy al- Shabaab strongholds. 24 Both Ethiopia and Kenya were widely involved in the Somali conflict throughout the course of the civil war. As of 2016 Ethiopia has reportedly completely withdrawn its troops. 25 Kenya was involved with the conflict up until 2012 under the Operation Linda Nchi, a joint military operation between Kenyan and Somali forces. This operation sought to target al-shabaab militants and ensure the security of the 21 Somalia, United Nations, 22 IBID 23 Ryan Browne, Trump to ramp up Somalia anti-terror campaign, March 30, 2017, 24 IBID 25 Ethiopia withdraws troops in Somalia over lack of support, October 26, 2016, 11

12 countries. 26 Troops entered Somalia from the southern border with Kenya and went on to liberate bases and towns in southern Somalia from al-shabaab control. Currently, Kenya still contributes monetary and military support the Somali peacekeeping mission under AMISOM. 27 Control of Mogadishu Currently, the ruling government in Mogadishu is the Federal Parliamentary Republic with Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed as President and Hassan Ali Khayre as Prime Minister. A conflict between Militia from ICU (Islamic Court Union) rumored to be backed by Al-Qaeda and ARPCT (Alliances for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism) which was then rumored to be backed by the US broke out during 2006 in the capital. It was eventually won by ICU as they seized the city on the 5 th of June 2006 imposing Sharia Law. Around 2 years before the seizure of Mogadishu, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) tried to regain control over the area assisted by Ethiopian troops, AMISOM peacekeepers, and air support by the United States. These efforts successfully drove out the ICU and solidified its rule. 28 During the beginning of 2007, Abdullah Yusuf Ahmed, former colonel of the Somali 26 Katherine Zimmerman, Timeline: Operation Linda Nchi, October 24, 2011, 27 John Ahere, Peacekeeping Contributor Profile: Kenya, Last modified January 2017, 28 Ken Menkhaus, 'Local Security Systems in Somali East Africa,' in Andersen/Moller/Stepputat (eds.), Fragile States and Insecure People,' Palgrave, 2007, 73. Archived February 22, 2014, at the Wayback Machine. 12

13 Army and founder of the TFG, relocated to Mogadishu from Baidoa. This marked the time where the federal government controlled maximum amount of the state. 29 A new technocratic government was elected to office in 2010 that ended up formatting the security sector. By August 2011, the new administration and its AMISOM allies had managed to capture all of Mogadishu from the Al-Shabaab militants. 30 Current State of the Economy Somalia under the UN has officially been classified as a least developed country. Before the civil war, Mogadishu was a financial hub, but since the city s pacification since 2011, many multinationals have open up including the Coca-Cola factory. Eventually, the first bank in many decades was set up in 2011 as well. Somalia s economy is based upon mainly on livestock, remittance/money transfers from abroad, and telecommunications. 31 The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) determined in 2012 that it had the lowest development indicators in the world, and a "strikingly low" Human Development Index (HDI) value. Agriculture is the most important economic sector. It accounts for about 65% of the GDP and employs 65% of the workforce. 32 Livestock contributes about 40% to GDP and more than 50% of export earnings. The processing of agricultural products, 29 "Ethiopian Invasion of Somalia". Globalpolicy.org. 14 August Retrieved 27 June "Al-Shabaab 'dug in like rats'". Independent Newspapers Online. 10 August Somalia". World Factbook. Central Intelligence Agency Retrieved Guide to African Markets". British Chambers of Commerce Retrieved 20 August

14 accounts for 10% of Somalia's GDP. 33 Seven Somali-owned firms from the financial services, telecommunications and transportation sectors are expected to list their shares therein for prospective global investment. 34 Topic 2: Al-Shabaab Historical Background As an organization, al-shabab primarily stepped into the international lense in 2006 as a splinter group formed from the military branch of the Sharia court conglomerate known as the Islamic Court Union (ICU) after its fall. 35 From 2006 to 2009, al-shabab gained footholds throughout Somalia, conducting numerous terror plots primarily targeting African Union Peacekeepers, Somali Ministers and Officials, and individuals that they deemed were in violation of Islam. 36 Much of their early violence was characterized primarily by strict accordance with Sharia law, including the stoning death of a 13-year-old rape victim and Somali citizen named Aisha Ibrahim Duhulow for adultery, as well as the whipping of women for wearing bras in 33 Central Bank of Somalia - Annual Report 2012". Central Bank of Somalia. Retrieved 2 August Somalia's new bourse sees seven firms listing on opening in 2015". Reuters. 26 November Retrieved 26 November Al Jazeera and Agencies. Timeline: Al-Shabab Violence. Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 30 Aug. 2010, 36 Mohamed, Hamza. Al-Shabab Bombs Target African Union Troops in Somalia. Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 26 July 2016, 14

15 public In 2010, at the beginning of a famine that would last into 2012 and kill nearly 260,000 people, al-shabab forced the UN World Food Programme to withdraw from southern Somalia by threatening attacks targeted against staff members. Later that year al-shabab formally declared an alliance with al-qaeda in an attempt to mobilize and claim larger portions of the Somali capital of Mogadishu. 39 Despite these efforts, in early 2011, al-shabab withdrew from Mogadishu and later lost control over towns of Baidoa and Afoye, in part due to mobilization of Kenyan troops into Somalia in an attempt to force out the terrorist organization. 40 The next year, al-shabab lost control over their last major city, Kismayo, in a joint operation led by Somali government and African Union forces. 41 Despite the seeming resurgence by anti-terror forces, in 2013, al-shabab attacked a Kenyan shopping center located in Nairobi and killed 60 people. 42 Al-Shabab attacks on Kenyan soil crescendoed, reaching a climax in the Garissa University College attacks, where 148 students, 37 Howden, Daniel. 'Don't Kill Me,' She Screamed. Then They Stoned Her to Death. The Independent, Independent Digital News and Media, 8 Nov. 2008, 38 Sheikh, Abdi. Somali Islamists Whip Women for Wearing Bras. Edited by Helen Nyambura- Mwaura, Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 16 Oct. 2009, 39 Somalia Profile - Timeline. BBC News, BBC, 4 Jan. 2018, IBID 41 IBID 42 McConnell, Tristan. 'Close Your Eyes and Pretend to Be Dead'. Foreign Policy, Foreign Policy, 23 Sept. 2016, foreignpolicy.com/2015/09/20/nairobi-kenya-westgate-mall-attack-al-shabab/. 15

16 primarily Christian, were killed. 43 In February of 2016, al-shabab issued a statement that they would target anyone working with with newly-elected Somali president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed. 44 Most recently in October of 2017, following a plethora of smaller suicide bombings and attacks throughout Somalia, a truck bombing which has primarily been attributed to al-shabab killed over 350 people in Mogadishu, leaving both the country and the international community reeling. 45 Despite collaboration with the African Union and United Nations as well as United States airstrikes, al-shabab remains a force of fear, terror, and violence spreading at a pestilential rate throughout Somalia. While this international effort has led to progress, it falls upon the Somali cabinet to determine the proper course of action to not only prevent al-shabab from regaining majority control over Somalia, but also to eventually extinguish the tremendously credible threat of terror nationwide. Institutions Political scientists often seek to utilize an institutional understanding of a conflict. That is to say that they seek to find the institutions that influence political 43 Gettleman, Jeffrey, et al. Somali Militants Kill 147 at Kenyan University. The New York Times, The New York Times, 2 Apr. 2015, 44 Somalia Profile - Timeline. BBC News, BBC, 4 Jan. 2018, Somalia to Announce 'State of War' against Al-Shabab Following Deadly Truck Bombing. Fox News, FOX News Network, 20 Oct. 2017, 16

17 and societal behavior in order to explain a conflict. When discussing Somali institutions, it is important to consider the negative space created from a lack of institutional framework in governance. Tatiana Nenova of the World Bank discusses this in the era following the collapse of Siad Barre s autocracy in She argues that in the case of Somalia there has been a high level of private organizational engagement in the institution building that is normally undertaken by governments. Private entities in Somalia have provided commodities traditionally backed by state infrastructure guarantees such as electricity and telecommunication networks. 47 With a lack of state infrastructure comes opportunities for a replacement of expected services via a market without any meaningful federal regulation. We see this with the example of water being sold by micro-entrepreneurs as explained by Nenova. 48 Somalia is a case study for a fully deregulated market in the context of an economy that looks to develop rapidly. The economic conditions in Somalia are further hindered by this lack of regulation because of problems inherent to economies that are left fully to their own devices. Monopolies, poor coordination, public goods provisions, and a lack of 46 Nenova, Tatiana. Private sector response to the abscence of government institutions in Somalia. Wolrd Bank. July 30, B00PUBLI 47 IBID 48 IBID 17

18 capitalization on comparative advantage in production costs. Delegates in the Somali committee must consider the outsized impact of business owners in the country to provide services that the government simply cannot. When examining the implementation of regulation delegates should also consider the flipside, that is complete regulation and the risks of corruption and weak property rights that come with it. Foreign institutions are also important in understanding both state and nonstate actor behavior in the Somali conflict. UNSC Resolution 1816 of 2008 was a major step forward in incorporating the multinational institution s ability to add or remove levels of red tape from a coalition effort to combat piracy in the Gulf of Aden. 49 Utilizing article VII of the UN Charter the UNSC authorized states to collaborate for the express purpose of combating the theft of foreign property by Somali pirates, a security service that a functioning Somali government would have been expected to provide. Institutions can be critical in understanding the building blocks of behavioral dictation in a conflict. Many of the actors in the conflict this committee is seeking to resolve are influenced heavily by both domestic and international institutions. It is critical that you as a committee consider institution building as a development 49 J. Ashley Roach. The American Journal of International Law. Vol. 104, No. 3 (July 2010), pp

19 strategy, as well as utilizing the institutions already in place in Somalia, baring in mind that these can take both public and private forms. International Action As al-shabab grew in power during the 2000s, it became necessary for foreign powers to intervene in order to protect Somalia and prevent the threat of al-shabab from becoming more international. The African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) is a peacekeeping force established by the African Union in January 2007, which includes troops from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. 50 AMISOM s goals include working to establish peace and stability in Somalia as well as striking against al-shabab. 51 Between 2007 and 2012, AMISOM troops managed to liberate the port city of Kismayo from al-shabab control as well as implement the Transitional Federal Government and regain governmental control of Mogadishu. 52 This international force, which includes some of Somalia s closest neighboring countries and is still presently active, has proved invaluable in the fight against al-shabab, to the point where it is clear that Somalia is 50 Bennett Seftel, AMISOM: A Decade into the Fight Against Al Shabaab, The Cipher Brief, 19 Nov. 2017, 51 IBID 52 IBID 19

20 dependent on AMISOM aid to maintain the peace in the country. 53 Yet, this presence, while necessary for peacekeeping, is not completely welcomed by the Somali people. The degree of control that foreign countries, especially Kenya and Ethiopia, exert over the country is taken as an insult to Somali national pride, causing discontent surrounding the foreign countries presence in Somalia. 54 The other major international force at work against al-shabab in Somalia is the United States. Though US forces withdrew from operations within Africa in the later 1990s, the rise of the al-shabab terror group sparked a new era of US intervention in Africa as part of the war on terror. 55 The United States, often partnering with AMISOM, has been successful in decreasing al-shabab s control over Somalia. In 2016, the US executed 14 strikes against the terror group and later executed 16 strikes in 2017 by September alone. 56 This increase comes in part because of President Trump s March 2017 decision to allow the US military to attack the al-qaeda militants associated with the al-shabab. 57 Yet despite this, the Somali president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, who is also an American citizen, has expressed a 53 Alex de Waal, Can Somalia Ever Win Against Al-Shabab?, ForeignPolicy.com, 19 Oct. 2017, 54 IBID 55 Emily Johnson, Inside America s shadow war against al-shabab, Public Radio International, 1 Sept, 2017, 56 Shawn Snow, US ops against al-shabab in Somalia heat up, Military Times, 13 Sept. 2017, 57 IBID 20

21 desire for an increased supply of weapons from the US. 58 This would require a lift of the arms embargo placed on Somalia in 1992; however, Mohamed believes that it would allow Somali forces to gain the advantage over al-shabab. 59 This request leaves it to the United States to decide whether to increase involvement in Somalia even further. Somalia relies on international involvement in the fight against al-shabab as they do not possess the infrastructure to continue the fight without foreign troops. Because of this, it is important that the Somali Cabinet considers these international entities when forming policies in order to better the country of Somalia as a whole. Non-State Actors in Somalia Power in Somalia is tenuously balanced between the internationally recognized government of President Mohamed and the many other non-state actors exercising control over their regions of influence. The Mogadishu-based central government has very little power outside of the Capital, and struggles to maintain power even there. 60 Much like a feudal system of government, various clan leaders throughout Mogadishu and the rest of Somalia lend their support to the central government and reinforce its 58 Emily Johnson, Inside America s shadow war against al-shabab, Public Radio International, 1 Sept, 2017, 59 IBID 60 Ken Menkhaus, State Building and Non-State Armed Actors in Somalia, Syracuse University, 9/9/15, 21

22 legitimacy as long as there is incentive to do so. Somalis strong connection to ancestral clans has led to favoritism to clan members and repression of outsiders both in the political and security spheres. The weakness of Mohamed s government has led Somalis to turn to many non-state actors (NSAs) to provide stability and security for their regions, or even simply neighborhoods. 61 The largest allied NSA of influence operating in Somalia is the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This force of twenty-two thousand troops actively combats Al-Shabaab, and has liberated all major cities within Somalia with collaboration from central government troops. 62 Al-Shabaab, the most potent enemy NSA Somalia currently faces, has allied with al-qaeda in an attempt to oust Mogadishu s government and launch attacks into neighboring countries. 63 Among the many challenges to the central government s stated goal of rebuilding the failed state, are in fact, its reliance upon NSAs. Because protection has become commoditized within Somalia, those profiting from providing security forces now have an incentive to maintain a stable chaos. Clan leaders with private militias protect their peoples within Mogadishu and surrounding areas; those of another clan may benefit from short-term protections, but will pay tolls to pass through clan security checkpoints and 61 IBID 62 AMISOM Mandate, AMISOM, 2018, 63 Marco Rotelli, Humanitarian Actors Struggle for Access, Impartiality, and Engagement with Armed Non-State Actors, Professionals in Humanitarian Assistance and Protection 1/5/18, 22

23 ultimately incentivize continued instability. 64 Private security contractors make considerable incomes protecting foreigners and diplomats. While the government may command a modest military, independent security solutions far outweigh the power of the government, and almost always have better pay, and far more legitimacy within the eyes of those they protect. In addition to these NSAs, the autonomous regions of the Puntland in the northeast and Somaliland in the north operate relatively functional societies and effective security forces without any cooperation with Mogadishu. Humanitarian groups are active in Somalia. However, the perceived political interests of these groups weakens their reputation for neutrality and has led to some being targeted as combatants. Setting up an integrated mission [is] linked to the blurring of the lines between the UN Political and Humanitarian Affairs in Somalia, and Opposition groups, particularly Al-Shabaab, see UNSOM as a political partisan, [causing] humanitarian actors lose the ground to negotiate. 65 Armed groups often rely upon humanitarian agencies to provide necessary goods and services to the people 64 Ken Menkhaus, State Building and Non-State Armed Actors in Somalia, Syracuse University, 9/9/15, 65 Marco Rotelli, Humanitarian Actors Struggle for Access, Impartiality, and Engagement with Armed Non-State Actors, Professionals in Humanitarian Assistance and Protection 1/5/18, 23

24 they within their area of control. 66 However, in filling this gap, humanitarian free up resources for these organizations to devote to strengthening their insurgency. Counter-terror restrictions essentially criminalize engaging with Al-Shabaab. 67 Thus, it is easy to spin aid agencies which refuse to interact with terror organizations as clearly politically aligned with the government, and therefore legitimate targets in the eyes of Al-Shabaab. United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), is the most recent attempt by the UN to directly intervene in Somalia. Its mission involves advancing humanitarian rights, monitoring the progress of the current government, and security. UNSOM coordinates with AMISOM and other groups to achieve these ends. 68 As a result of fusing these numerous objectives, prioritization of one goal may weaken progress on another; an instance where this problem may emerge could include excusing government violations of human rights laws to ensure continued legitimacy. Territorial Control 66 Ashley Jackson, Humanitarian Negotiations With Armed Non-State Actors: Key Lessons From Afghanistan, Sudan, and Somalia, Humanitarian Policy Group, 2014, somaliangoconsortium.org/download/578571d6a4dd0/ 67 IBID 68 Mandate, UNISOM, 2018, 24

25 Understanding rebel control of state territory requires a breakdown of the definition of control. Northwestern University professor Ana Arjona provides an in depth breakdown of various stages of rebel territorial control as correlated with behavioral and institutional incentives of the local political landscape. Arjona (2016) argues that in areas with strong local institutions, i.e. local government, police forces, and community organizations with low levels of corruption rebels will be less likely to take full control over an area. 69 Full control can be represented by the introduction of replacement institutions, particularly with extractive characteristics, such as local taxes. Anecdotal evidence should not be considered alongside scholarly content in terms of accuracy, but in cases of understanding life under rebel control it can be valuable. Testimony from people living under Al-Shabaab have described a strict interpretation of the law and a banning of normative behavior such as tobacco smoking, music, and playing popular local sports such as soccer. 70 Roadblocks and other means to restrict free movement have also been observed. 71 Life under Al- Shabaab is ostensibly meant to resemble the group s own interpretation of strict Islamic law, and testimony from those in Somalia living under the group s control have confirmed the lack of state law enforcement. Formerly popular social activities 69 Arjona, A. (2016). Rebelocracy : Social order in the Colombian civil war (Cambridge studies in comparative politics). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. 70 Life under Somalia's Al-Shabab Militants. BBC News, BBC, 22 Feb. 2012, 71 IBID 25

26 such as watching European soccer matches have been banned and can result in arrest if caught. 72 Understanding Al-Shabaab is to understand their intention of being socially disruptive. By attacking local institutions and changing established cultural norms and popular behaviors they seek to assert their control not over the land but over the people. Al-Shabaab does not have a codified way of ruling any given territory given the perogatrices of local branch leaders to impose their own rule, but a universal expectation is a strict adherence to an extremist interpretation of Islamic sharia law. Delegates in this committee must consider liberation of those under Al-Shabaab control to be a high priority, as well as remaining cognizant of the institution building that is necessary after removing the insurgent group s control of an area. Positions Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Ise Awad As Minister of Foreign Affairs you will have a wide range of power over Somalia s diplomatic corps as well as direct lines of communications with the resources of other nations. It will be critical in your role to take advantage of the Somali government s relationship with the United States and its vast intelligence network in East Africa, as well as its considerable regional military assets. As well as the United States, Somalia s 72 IBID 26

27 relationship with Kenya, the African Union, and former colonial power Italy should be carefully weighed, in addition to Sunni Muslim allies with deep pockets on the Arabian Peninsula. Minister of Interior and Federal Affairs - Abdi Mohamed Sabriye As Minister of Interior and Federal Affairs the country s domestic services and federal bureaucracy must be kept in order. Your powers lie in the web of institutions controlled by the federal government, including the police. Consider carefully your relationship with other ministers who have levels of control over federal services and infrastructure, and be mindful not to become a jack of all trades, master of none. Keeping control of federal institutions and ensuring they stay out of the control of the various factors of corruption that plague Somalia is crucial to your position. Minister of Finance - Abdirahman Duale Beyle As Minister of Finance your power lies in one simple source, the federal budget. As well as overseeing all financial matters in Somalia, including wealthy foreign donors looking for high upside investment opportunities, you also oversee the federal budget, and have a loud voice when it comes to approving the federal budget with your fellow committee members. Use your control over the budget wisely, and be sure to make more friends than enemies. Minister of Defense - Abdirashid Abdullahi Mohamed 27

28 As Minister of Defence your position is critical to both topics as you oversee Somalia s defence forces. You oversee Somalia s 12,000 active and 24,000 reserve troops, and you are responsible for their prudent labor delegation. Understanding where to send Somalia s troops while facing treats from multiple sectors will be essential to this committee s success in the face of an ever evolving menace. The Army, Navy, and fledgling Airforce are at your command. Minister of Education - Abdirahman Dahir Osman As Minister of Education you are in charge of Somalia s most important single resource, its youth. Somali human capital represents its greatest potential for growth and the importance proper investment in the youth cannot be understated. Securing foreign investment in Somalia s education infrastructure, be it through the UN, African Union, donor country s, or private investment, should be a top priority of your position. Arguing on behalf of an increase of domestic funds towards education programs should also be at the front end of your agenda. Minister of Humanitarian and Disaster Management - Maryam Qasim Ahmed As Minister of Humanitarian and Disaster Management you must be ready to think on your feet. Disasters come thick and vast in tumultuous political environments and you must be prepared to use Somalia s disaster management budget to mitigate the severity of everything from terror attacks to natural disasters. In addition you must 28

29 seek to improve the conditions of the Somalia s vast number of IDPs and refugees living in squalid conditions in camps. Minister of Planning and Economic Promotion - Jamal Mohamed Hassan As Minister of Planning and Economic Promotion you will be in charge of the economic planning for Somalia s future. Taking into consideration the myriad opinions on development economics you must sort through the nebulous theories of academics and find what is best for your nation. You will have a high degree of say in the direction in which the economy heads, be that overriding certain budget allocation propositions, or designating foreign direct investment (FDI) towards your own narrowly tailored investment projects the future of Somalia s economy is in your hands. Minister of Commerce and Industry Mohamed Abdi Hayr As Minister of Commerce and Industry your power lies in the regulation of Somalia s corporate sector as well as foreign companies operating in Somalia. Regulating Somalia s large informal economy should be one of the foremost issues considered. Somalis participate in a massive, unregulated informal economy driven by, amongst other factors, foreign remittances. It is in your best interest to drive those out of the informal economy and into Somalia s growing corporate entities. Developing healthy 29

30 domestic commerce as well as international trade will be critical to your success. Take advantage of the power of foreign corporations in your position. Minister of Religious Affairs - Iimaan Abdullahi Ali As Minister of Religious Affairs you must maintain harmony between Somalia s Sunni and Shafi i muslims as well as the small minority of those practicing other religions. The people will look to you for theological guidance, and you have a tremendous amount of influence over the country s moral practices via your decrees. Maintaining a positive relationship with community religious leaders through whom you can articulate your idea will be essential. Minister of Women and Human Rights - Deeqa Yasin Hajji Yusuf As Minister of Women and Human Rights your task is to ensure proper investment in Somalis marginalized by societal institutions. Oppression of women has been a horrible fact of life in Somalia for centuries, as the modernization of the country is contingent upon proper direct integration into the economy of all citizens. Somalia will not be able to maximize production without its full labor force, and sexism is a driver of economic regression. The human rights situation in Somalia at the moment is dire, and advancement of Somalia s standard of living will be impossible without cracking down on all forms of human rights violations. Rapid development often comes with tradeoffs in civil liberties, it is your job to use your office to ensure this 30

31 does not happen in Somalia. Vetoing legislation or action on behalf of the Somali government you find unbecoming of a government committed to human rights advancement will be one of your prerogatives. Minister of Internal Security - Mohamed Abukar Islow Dualle As Minister of Internal Security your first responsibility to the safety and security of Somali citizens. Ensuring a sense of order is essential for the daily functions of life within the country. Doing this will require close control and collaboration with other members of the committee over control of the army as well as localized police forces. Your power lies in the protection of the Somali people, and your focus on protecting domestic interests such as Somali businesses and educational institutions from threats foreign and domestic. Minister of Agriculture - Said Hussein Iid As Minister of Agriculture your main point of control comes in the country s food production. Steering Somalia towards a future of sustainability in food production is essential. One thing that is critical to note, famine is almost always a political phenomenon not an environmental one. Preventing a repeat of the atrocities suffered in 1991 will require careful planning and allocation of food for appropriate uses, and not as tokens to be used in political disagreements. Agriculture is the largest single sector in the Somali economy, which gives you a tremendous amount of power in the 31

32 molding of the economic direction of the country. Use your control over allocation of government and international organization subsidies to your advantage. Minister of Health and Social Care - Fowsiya Abiikar Nur As Minister of Health and Social Care you are tasked with overseeing the healthcare of the Somali people as well as social work. Raising the overall life expectancy should be of the utmost priority, in addition to using your powers as health minister to cut down on private gun violence. Social care institutions have largely corrupted as a result of the rampant violence. Establishing resources for youth and at risk peoples is tremendously important towards your position. Using your budget allocations to upgrade hospitals and work towards the stated goal of having universal healthcare by 2016 should also be strongly considered, along with securing more funding for the Health Sector Strategic Plan (HSSP) and its goals. Minister of Information - Abdirahman Omar Osman As Minister of Information your job is to decrease the opportunity cost of government communications in Somalia. Ensuring a coherent stream of information between the government and its constituents its essential for this committee, as you are serving the people of Somalia fundamentally. Your powers include widespread control over what the government hides from the public, and what it does not. This is power that must not be taken lightly. There is no constitutionally entrenched free speech in Somalia, 32

33 and you must thus use your good judgement to ensure ethical lines are not crossed. Collaborate with NGOs and journalists to make sure the story is told. Minister of Justice - Hassan Hussein Hajji As Minister of Justice you will be tasked with the oversight of the country s legal institutions and any trials that occur within the committee. You as a committee will have the ability to try any private or public actors you see fit, and providing counsel for the accused will be your task as a barrister. A country s judicial institutions act as a safeguard against all manor of corruption, and are essential in providing the level of societal stability necessary for economic growth. In addition to acting as the country s de facto attorney general, you will act as the corruption watchdog. Be careful of who you accuse, your check on power is essential. Minister of Labour - Salah Ahmed Jama As Minister of Labour you will oversee the country s growing labor force and be sure that Somalia is achieving peak productivity by taking advantage of its human capital. This will require collaboration with other ministers of government, notably the Minister of Commerce, to ensure that Somalia s economic growth is being driven by Somalians, and not foreign investment. The latter is certainly important, but the former is the future of Somalia. Be sure to use your power to improve educational infrastructure and trade learning, as well as programs to steer at risk youth away from 33

34 paths of radicalization and into the productive labor market. Keeping unemployment, especially for young Somalis, is absolutely crucial for development and the prevention of terror. Minister of Constitutional Affairs Abdirahman Hoosh Jibril As Minister of Constitutional Affairs, you will be in charge of implementing civic education programs on the Somali government throughout Somalia. Additionally, the country in the midst of a constitutional review and the Minister of Constitutional Affairs has been tasked with collected public input on constitutional amendments and recommending changes to Parliament. As a country with new, sometimes unstable institutions, this review process is paramount in solidifying the staying power of the Somali government. Minister of Ports and Marine Transport Maryan Aweys As Minister of Ports and Marine Transport, you will exercise a high degree of control over the ports and territorial waters of Somalia. As a country with poor interior infrastructure, Somalia relies on oceanic shipping to drive much of its economy. Sitting on the Horn of Africa, Somalia is also in proximity to some of the world s busiest shipping lanes, and proper management could lead to unprecedented profit and growth. Furthermore, the Minister of Ports and Marine Transport much cope with piracy, not the threat it once was, but still a very real fear in Somali waters. 34