Visions of Somalia in 2039 Created by Tessa Finlev and Aaron Gardner

Transcription

1 Visions of Somalia in 2039 Created by Tessa Finlev and Aaron Gardner Visionary Scenario Description of life in the year 2039 It s 6:00 am in Mogadishu and Nadifa s alarm goes off much to her dismay. She rolls out of bed, kisses her husband Ali, and makes breakfast for her seven year old daughter and husband. Nadifa then gets herself ready for work. She takes the bus downtown where she works at Somalia s new commodity futures market as an assistant to Dr. Ahmed. Dr. Ahmed returned from Minnesota two years ago to consult on the design and implementation of the futures market. Today is a regular day: she ll stay at the office until 5:00. At 4:30 her mobile alarm goes off to remind her to call her housekeeper to check in and talk to her daughter about her day in school. After work Nadifa heads home to make dinner with her housekeeper. On the way home she stops off at Nakumat, a Kenyan supermarket chain that has spread throughout the region, to pick up rice for dinner along with other odds and ends. During dinner Nadifa trades stories about her day with her daughter, widowed mother, and housekeeper. Her mother tells her about Nadifa s childhood friend who s apparently in the process of divorcing her husband after repeated beatings. Nadifa is once again reminded of how thankful she is that her husband has taken a more progressive stance on gender equality, and wonders if this is perhaps due to his education by Peace Corps volunteers while in secondary school. Divorce in Somalia is fairly unusual and still stigmatized, but reunified Somalia s new constitution recognizes it as a right if domestic violence is present. Ali is looking to expand his tourism business into a nearby village that is home to a solar power farm that supplies Mogadishu with much of its power. Since it is controlled by a different clan, he has gone to seek a blessing from the village elders to expand his ecotourism business there. The farm was originally funded by Saudi Arabia and Ali knows wealthy ecotourists love to see these sorts of international collaborations. It s unclear when he ll be back but Nadifa won t be surprised if it s in 3 or more days. After dinner Nadifa and her family prepare for Isha a, the fifth prayer of the day, and head off to bed. Description of life in the year 2011, looking back from 2039 During dinner Nadifa starts an animated discussion with her mom and

2 housekeeper about life in They agree that getting rid of the Transitional Federal Government (TGF) was one of the best things that happened to Somalia is looked back on as the beginning of the end of many lifetimes of war and chaos sticks out in Nadifa s mind because it was one of the worst years in Mogadishu as Al-Shabaab stepped up efforts to overthrow the TFG and bombings were a daily occurrence. She lost quite a few classmates during that time. But thankfully 2011 was the darkness before the light. Description of the changes that took place between 2011 and 2039 After the civil society uprisings in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2011 and 2012 successfully brought in peaceful and non-extremist democracies the international community saw they could be more relaxed about allowing indigenous views of democracy to develop internally in countries like Somalia. In this way, international peacekeeping efforts began to change focus from topdown military and political intervention to emphasize bottom-up community based and organized peacebuilding efforts. Islands of peace within violent societies were sought out and nourished in hopes of spreading peace throughout all of society. In Somalia this played out through a reduction of AMISOM troop strength. TFG s military power was slowly weakened as the international community gradually transferred funding from the TFG to local islands of peace with the guidance of the Somali diaspora. Instead of funding NGOs and community groups directly, the local islands of peace were funded vis-à-vis the wider Somali diaspora to discourage Al-Shabaab from seeing the bottom-up peacebuilding efforts as being Western interference. The Somali diaspora played a major role in creating this shift by funding the islands of peace themselves through remittances as well as accepting international financing. The focus was truly on supporting local efforts and after slow and steady progress proved very successful. Summary of key changes and looking forward beyond 2039 Key Changes Unification of Somaliland and Somalia in Creation of new constitution that draws on Islam as well as Xeer, a decentralized Somali legal tradition. The constitution is hailed with international respect as being the first to truly place local and traditional practices into modern legal documents. In this way Somalia has become the first traditionally stateless nation to be able to create a functioning state. By 2039 Somali lawyers are consulting in Afghanistan to bring about similar changes. Nile river conflict between Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt has been resolved and marginalized third party spoilers. This removed Egypt s motivation for destabilizing Ethiopia by funding Al-Shabaab.

3 Somalia has become food secure thanks to an influx of aid and investment into the newly peaceful and democratic society. By 2039 most aid has stopped in favor of investment. The process of ending dependency on aid was greatly influenced by Rwanda s previous success and relied on much consultation from Rwanda s former president Kagame. By 2039 Somalia has become a major port of entry for trade in the Greater Horn of Africa and FDI is entering Somalia from all over the world. This was encouraged by a trend to lowering trade barriers throughout Africa as well as early investment in basic Somalian infrastructure. Increasing global interest in solar energy has also led to substantial investment in multiple solar farms. The telecom industry in Somalia is booming. The reunification of Somalia quickly led to a spread of the top of the line telecommunications infrastructure built up in Somaliland as early as Somalia is now an outsourcing hub, providing stable employment for many workers. The focus on islands of peace (as opposed to military intervention) ultimately bore fruit in the form of a small, professional self-defense force in which all clans are represented. This defense force includes a navy and coast guard formed by reintegrating former pirates. The coast guard successfully polices Somalia s ocean resources and Somalia once again profits from its fisheries. The navy and coast guard have also successfully prevented further degradation from illegal toxic dumping and stopped piracy. Somalia has settled on a federalist form of governance in which regional governments in Somaliland, Puntland, and southern Somalia enjoy a limited degree of autonomy. The national government is representative and is chosen periodically by a clan-based process. This structure successfully sensitizes government to the collective aspirations of civil society through strong feedback loops between clan elders and their members. Women find representation through the 6th clan (a female based clan ) which was brought in as an equal clan member of government. In this way women can influence policy through both their familial clan and their gender based clan. Beyond 2039 The futures commodities market is expected to smooth income for farmers, livestock traders, and fishermen. Eventually there is hope that it can lead to increased investment.

4 Having gained a mantle of moral leadership in the region Somali leaders are expected to continue to build peace throughout Africa. Their success in helping to end the long standing conflict in Northern Uganda and Yemen is hailed as evidence of their commitment to peace and ability to build it. The work they are doing in Afghanistan is having interesting and impressive results. Eventually, remembering Somalia as a failed state will become an act of imagination. Life continues on normally, children go to school, women get jobs, and people are safe. Somalia is not the richest country but life is good and comfortable. Somalia enjoys improved relations but also faces more challenging commercial relationships with its neighbors. Gaining port business has been slow. Kenya now has two major ports, one of which is just at the Somali border. Tanzania s port was up and running long before Somalia s. Nevertheless Somalia is happy to face this challenge absent violence. Somalia hopes to attract investment into new advanced solar powered desalination plants that are hoped to drastically boost local agricultural production and lower dependence on regional trade. Somalia is facing a growing trade imbalance due to its inability to grow enough food. When the war ended, less than 1% of their land was being farmed. The hope is with a few of these desalination plants they can bring it up to 10% in 10 years. The issue now is to do so before there is an all out economic crisis and Somalia will need to borrow money from the IMF.

5 Challenging Scenario Description of life in the year 2039 It s 6:00 am in Mogadishu and Nadifa s alarm goes off much to her dismay. She rolls out of bed, kisses her husband Ali, and makes breakfast for Ali and her 7 year old daughter. Nadifa then gets ready for work and takes the bus downtown to Somalia s commodity futures market where she works as an assistant to Dr. Ahmed. Dr. Ahmed returned from Minnesota two years ago to help consult on the design and implementation of the futures market. Mid way through her work day an American woman comes to Nadifa s office to learn more about their work. Nadifa approaches her with caution unsure if she is a well intentioned aid worker or a soldier/spy. She answers her questions for fear of being arrested by national security forces for subversion but doesn t offer any more information than the bare minimum. At 4:30 Nadifa s mobile alarm goes off and reminds her to call her housekeeper to check in and talk to her daughter about her day in school. Nadifa finishes work at 5:00 pm, after which she heads home to make dinner with her housekeeper. On the way home she stops off at Nakumat, a Kenyan supermarket chain that has spread throughout the region, to pick up rice for dinner along with other odds and ends. While in the market she is nervous as always because of the risk of suicide bombings. Nadifa thinks it s time she stop shopping at Nakumat since this new wave of insurgency is angry at Western influence. Despite Nakumat being Kenyan, it s modeled after western culture and symbolizes western affluence and modernity. Her bus ride home is delayed because the police stop it to arrest a woman for wearing a hijab. During dinner Nadifa trades stories about her day with her daughter, widowed mother, and housekeeper. Her mother tells her about Nadifa s childhood friend who s apparently in the process of divorcing her husband because he won t stop beating her. Last week she ended up in the hospital again. Nadifa is once again reminded of how thankful she is that her husband has taken a more progressive stance on gender equality, and wonders if this is perhaps due to his education by USAID contractors while in secondary school. Divorce is very unusual and still stigmatized, but the new constitution of Somalia and Puntland recognizes it as a. In this and many other respects, the new constitution mirrors Western institutions. Meanwhile Ali is away. He is in an inland village at a secret meeting of anti- Federal Government activists. The Federal Government is the successor to the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). In 2014 the international community successfully shattered Al-Shabaab after intense fighting that displaced the majority of Somali citizens around Mogadishu. In the aftermath the TFG was

6 quickly made permanent despite its lack of legitimacy and chronic infighting. Although opposed to the government, Ali is not connected to the suicide bombers, and most Somalis are very angry and concerned about this new trend. Nadifa supports her husband s work because she knows that as long as the Federal Government is around Somalia will always be unstable. But Ali s activities frequently keep him away for extend periods and Nadifa fears he will one day be arrested and tortured by state security forces. After dinner Nadifa and her family prepare for Isha a, the fifth prayer of the day, and head off to bed. Description of the changes that took place between 2011 and 2039 Although some of the civil society uprisings in MENA in resulted in moderate, secular, democratic governments, the failure of some movements to topple their repressive regimes along with the perceived lack of support from Western governments led to increased radicalism across the region. This in turn led the international community to retrench with a more interventionist military based approach to peace enforcement. In Somalia this played out through a massive increase in AMISOM troop strength. Ethiopia, America, England, Uganda, and NATO also sent in troops and ultimately inflicted a crushing defeat on Al-Shabaab and other militants after a brutal, grinding counterinsurgency war. Although this war now referred to as The Final Blow was short lived and a military success, rebuilding Somalia has been more challenging from the outside looks like a success. GDP growth has been impressive and for all intents and purposes Somalia is a thriving country. But the Federal Government is not appreciated as truly representing Somalia and insurgencies are popping up with increasing frequency and threatening to drag Somalia back to Description of life in the year 2011, looking back from 2039 From is beginning to seem frighteningly familiar. Although Somalia has been relatively peaceful and Nadifa would never have the life she has now if The Final Blow did not take place, she is angry at the irrational way the international community has dealt with Somalia. Often times she feels looked down upon, and Somalia is treated like a baby that cannot build its own future. Al-Shabaab, a group that had no popular support in 2011, is now being remembered by some as a hero organization. Nadifa is terrified by this talk and hopes that her husband knows what he is doing. She hopes the opposition he is building against the Federal Government will be level-headed and manage to avoid violence and dividing Somalia as in What sticks out to Nadifa is the difference amongst Somalis. In 2011 they were a nation deeply divided by clan lines, Islam, modernity, and gender equality. But now Somalis are united: us against the Federal Government.

7 Summary of key changes and looking forward beyond 2039 Key changes The international community continues to deny recognition to Somaliland. Creation of new constitution solely based on Western notions of democracy and institutional norms. Nile river conflict between Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt has been resolved and marginalized third party spoilers. This removed Egypt s motivation for destabilizing Ethiopia by funding Al-Shabaab. This of course was not the end of Al-Shabaab: they found new funding sources among radicalized Islamic populations after the disastrous uprisings. Somalia has become food secure thanks to an influx of aid and investment into the relatively peaceful and stable society. By 2039 Somalia is heavily dependent on aid to carry out basic governmental functions. By 2039 Somalia has become a major port of entry for trade in the Greater Horn of Africa and FDI is entering Somalia from all over the world. This was encouraged by a trend to lowering trade barriers throughout Africa as well as early investment in basic Somalian infrastructure. Increasing global interest in solar energy has also led to substantial investment in multiple solar farms. The telecom industry in Somalia is growing. Commercial agreements with Somaliland quickly led to a spread of the top of the line telecommunications infrastructure built up there as early as Somalia is now an outsourcing hub, providing stable employment for many workers. The focus on military intervention ultimately produced a very ruthless national security force propped up by foreign funds. The relatively high wages paid to soldiers and police have ensured clan representation and enticed former pirates to join a new navy and coast guard. The coast guard successfully polices Somalia s ocean resources. In this way Somalia profits from its fisheries, successfully prevents degradation from illegal toxic dumping, and has stopped piracy. Somalia has settled on a federalist form of governance in which regional governments in Puntland and southern Somalia enjoy a limited degree of autonomy. The national government is elected by popular vote and consists of a two chamber legislature and president. This structure was specifically designed to mirror Western political institutions and has lead to extreme feelings of cultural alienation and marginalization within traditional

8 civil society. Women find representation through the 6th clan (a female based clan ) which is brought in as an equal member of government. In this way women can influence policy through both their familial clan and their gender based clan. Beyond 2039 The funds required to entice government soldiers are getting steeper and steeper as the wages available for local jobs are increasing. The international community is beginning to bicker over who should bear the greatest cost. Although no one wants to admit it publicly, people are increasingly becoming concerned over the sustainability of the Somalia project. But after so many years it s hard to see how to change directions without being forced to. The futures commodities market is expected to smooth income for farmers, livestock traders, and fishermen. Somalia hopes to attract investment into new advanced solar powered desalination plants that are hoped to drastically boost local agricultural production and lower dependence on regional trade. Somalia is facing a growing trade imbalance due to its inability to grow enough food. When the war ended, less than 1% of their land was being farmed. The hope is with a few of these desalination plants they can bring it up to 10% in 10 years. The issue now is to do this before there is an all out economic crisis and Somalia will need to borrow money from the IMF. Somalia is facing very difficult challenges in convincing investors that Somalia is a safe place to invest. Sovereign risk is considered among the worst in the world despite the outward appearance of success. Despite being relatively peaceful Somalia continues to be a destabilizing force in the Horn of Africa. There is little hope that the remaining militants will ever cease their resistance and they continue to conduct bombings in the region and internationally. Additionally, Somalia is seen as a weak, Western tool in the region and its leaders command little respect. Although the memory of Somalia as a failed state has receded and many Somalis are better off than in the past, the specter of backsliding into war and chaos never seems to recede. The anger over the perceived cultural castration by the West is slowly bubbling to the surface and fears of an all out civil war between the government army and a unified rebel force are palpable.

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10 Expectable Scenario Description of life in the year 2039 Nadifa wakes up to the sound of gun fire. Al-Shabaab has once again escalated its attacks in Mogadishu. The same old story prevails: Al-Shabaab and the now 35 year old Transitional Federal Government are still fighting over the country s capitol. Nadifa rolls out of bed and kisses her husband Ali. After making breakfast for her 7 year old daughter and Ali, Nadifa walks to the local market with her daughter where they sell their homemade soap.. Ali husband is mostly idle, but resisting the temptation to join Al-Shabaab despite the potential for a minimal income. While at the market Nadifa and her daughter are nervous, as always. Suicide bombings, Al-Shabaab mortar attacks, and errant AMISOM fire all too frequently strike the area. They stay there until close to nightfall, depending on how her sales have gone. Most days she sells nothing. Nadifa and most other residents are indoors by night for fear of unmanned drone attacks. She heads home to make dinner, usually consisting of whatever food aid they can obtain. Food always has to go a long way as the community is left to care for the seemingly endless stream of orphans and jobless. While preparing dinner Nadifa misses her mother s help. Her mother, who used to live with her, was killed five years ago in a suicide bombing. As she and her family eat, her husband bemoans the lack of opportunity amid the ongoing violence, and dreams about moving to Puntland where he has heard there is some semblance of a successful life. Nadifa tells her daughter stories she has heard about the luxurious life that other Somalis in the diaspora live, but her Ali tells her to be quiet. After dinner Nadifa and her family prepare for Isha a, the fifth prayer of the day, and head off to bed. Description of the changes that took place between 2011 and 2039 Nadifa s daughter asks her what peace is. She thinks back throughout the history she knows. 2011? 2020? 1991? Who can really tell the difference? From her own life and histories she has heard, the only differences are between who is fighting whom, if you can even determine that fact. The fact is, despite her 30 years of life, Nadifa has no idea what peace is. She has heard rumors of a peaceful period somewhere in the early 2000s, before the Transitional Federal Government existed. People say the Islamic Courts Union managed to maintain some order, but then the Americans came in and killed them. No one seems to know the truth though. Peace seems like a false reality anyway. Violence has ebbed and flowed through the years, and probably always will. Life goes on. People die. Maybe we live, but we are always hungry.

11 Summary of key changes and looking forward beyond 2039 Key Changes Although some of the civil society uprisings in MENA in were successful, they failed to shift the dominant paradigm with respect to international relations, democracy, and peacekeeping efforts. By 2039 the international community is facing peacekeeping fatigue after nearly 50 years of involvement in Somalia. The bare minimum is being done, purely as face-saving measures. The international community gave up on reunification of Somalia in the wake of the successful secession in the Sudan and recognizes Somaliland s sovereignty. Over the years constitutions have come and gone amid perpetual TFG infighting. The constitution and TFG are largely irrelevant in any case since the law throughout much of the land is sharia as enforced by Al- Shabaab. Nile river conflict between Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt has been resolved and marginalized 3rd party spoilers in Somalia. Despite losing funding from Egypt as a result, Al-Shabaab has found new funding sources among radicalized Islamic populations. Of course Al Qaeda continues to fund them and their relationship has become very strong over the years. Al- Shabaab has continued to terrorize the region. Al Qaeda has helped to reinforce the quest for a Muslim caliphate throughout the region, and tourism is down in all nearby countries. The TFG continues to rely entirely on international aid to support itself. Since aid workers cannot enter most of the country, little aid reaches the people most in need. Al-Shabaab has, however, set up a rudimentary taxation system, which together with funds from Middle East donors and remittances from the diaspora goes to support the population. By 2039 China is the only country willing to invest in Somalia. They have funded projects in Puntland and Somaliland to help extract resources from the interior. In order to provide comfortable living quarters for Chinese workers they have also built modern housing facilities powered by solar panels. In order to discourage resentment at these facilities China engages in minimal development efforts in Somalia. The telecom industry in Somaliland is booming and increased border tensions have developed. Continuous instability in Somalia and the solidified separation of the two countries has stopped any chance of Somaliland s prosperity from spreading into Somalia. Pirates have continued to plague the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden. Their

12 financial success has lead to some continued development in Puntland, and this is increasingly seen as the only hope for Somalia among Somalis. Somalia remains a broken nation. Women continue to work through the 6th Clan to bring about peace. The future Given the prevalent peacekeeping fatigue, there is little hope that the military/political stalemate will be broken any time soon. Puntland hopes to convince China to invest in a new advanced solar powered desalination plant that is hoped to drastically boost local agricultural production. It s hard to imagine a future any different from the past 50 years or so of fighting. The region increasingly looks down on Somalia. Ethiopian and Kenyan ethnic Somalis Ethiopian and Kenyan natives who are ethnic Somalis and whose families have lived in Ethiopia and Kenya since Europe created these states and divided ethnicities increasingly face marginalization and discrimination within their home countries as they are deemed partially responsible for the regional chaos. Somalia as a failed state has become widely accepted as a permanent reality and efforts at conflict management are seen as the only possible thing to do. However, some people in the conflict resolution field believe that Somalia is finally close to being ripe for peace. After so many years of fighting combined with decreased international intervention, a slow and steady movement to help the 6th Clan spread peace is building. The hope is they may be able to emulate the successful peacekeeping efforts organized and led by Liberian women in Much like Liberian women, Somali women hold a special place especially through the 6th Clan in that they are not involved in the fighting and are able to connect across societal factions with the common goal of protecting their families and ending the violence. Although the past sometimes seems like the blueprint of an eternal future, some people are beginning to see glimmers of hope for lasting peace, and a quiet revolution is brewing.