SURVEY FINDINGS 8 February 2009 PERAK POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Transcription

1 MEDIA RELEASE PERAK STATE OPINION SURVEY SURVEY FINDINGS 8 February 2009 PERAK POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 1

2 All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be distributed, reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means including photocopying without the permission of Merdeka Center application for which should be addressed to the same. The distribution, reproduction, copying or transmission including the quotation of a part of the whole thereof by a non-customer is strictly prohibited 2

3 Methodology Survey based on interviews of 507 respondents comprising registered voters aged 21+ via telephone across the state of Perak Respondents comprised 46% Malays, 42% Chinese and 12% Indians in conformance with the 2008 Electoral Roll. This differs from the state population proportions of 54% Malay, 31% Chinese, 15% Indian and others. Respondent selection based on random stratified sampling according to parliamentary district, ethnicity and gender Poll was carried out between 6-8 th February 2009 Margin of error for this survey is estimated at ±4. for the overall sample 3

4 Respondent Profile Ethnicity Gender Setting Malay Chinese Indian 42% Urban Rural Male Female 12% 46% State assembly 1 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 2% 4 Gerik Lenggong Larut Parit Buntar Bagan Serai Bukit Gantang Taiping Padang Rengas Sungai Siput Tambun Ipoh Timur Ipoh Barat Batu Gajah Kuala Kangsar Beruas Parit Kampar Gopeng Tapah Pasir Salak Lumut Bagan Datok Telok Intan Tanjong Malim

5 Respondent Profile Occupation 1 19% Private sector 12% Civil service 4% Business owner 12% Selfemployed 2% 1% Unemployed, looking for work 19% Student Homemaker Retiree Total monthly household income Age 1 21% 12% 9% 14% 5% % 25% 27% < RM1,500 RM1,501 RM3,000 RM3,001 RM5,000 > RM5,000 Don't know No response and above 5

6 Survey Findings 6

7 Acceptance of ADUN leaving party How strongly do you accept or not accept state governments formed through defections of state assembly persons (ADUN)? 41% 1 13% 16% 25% 3% 1% Strongly accept Somewhat Somewhat don't Do not accept at Don't know No response accept accept all 7

8 Acceptance of ADUN leaving party (across races) How strongly do you accept or not accept state governments formed through defections of state assembly persons (ADUN)? Strongly accept Somewhat accept Somewhat don't accept Do not accept at all Don't know No response % 1% 1% 6% 1% 41% 31% 45% 25% 16% 13% 16% 21% 25% 42% 68% 5% 9% 2% 7% Total (n=507) Malay (n=236) Chinese (n=211) Indian (n=60) 8

9 Support towards dissolution of the state assembly In your view, should the Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave the way for fresh elections? % 22% 16% 6% 4% 1% Strongly yes Somewhat yes Somewhat no Strongly no Don't know No response 9

10 Support towards dissolution of the state assembly (across races) In your view, should Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave the way for fresh elections? Strongly yes Somewhat yes Somewhat no Strongly no Don't know No response 1% 4% 1% 6% 3% 4% 8% 16% 8% 3% 6% 28% 18% 31% 22% 6% 52% 14% 45% 54% 7 Total (n=507) Malay (n=236) Chinese (n=211) Indian (n=60) 10

11 Support towards dissolution of state assembly (across age, gender and location) In your view, should Perak State Assembly (DUN) be dissolved to pave way for fresh elections? Yes No Don't know No response % 4% 1% 4% 4% 6% 3% 2% 3% 8% 3% 5% 1% 2% 8% 22% 19% 24% 18% 24% 24% 19% 19% 25% 6 74% 76% 71% 76% 77% 72% 73% 72% 77% 78% Total (n=507) Male (n=251) Female (n=256) (n=51) (n=94) (n=127) (n=136) 61 and above (n=99) Urban (n=254) Rural (n=253) Private sector (n=95) Civil service (n=63) 11

12 Who decides? Among the following, who is most rightful in deciding who should form government in Perak? % 1 The people through election 21% 3% 1% The royalty Don't know No response 12

13 Who decides? (across races) Among the following, who is most rightful in deciding who should form government in Perak? T he people through election The royalty Don't know 3% 1% 5% 7% 21% 38% 76% 6 No response 88% 2% 98% Total (n=507) Malay (n=236) Chinese (n=211) Indian (n=60) 13

14 Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the people of Perak? % 29% 9% Yes (Reflects the will of the people) No (Doesn't reflect people's will) Don't know 14

15 Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis (across races) To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the people of Perak? Yes (Reflects the will of the people) Don't know No (Doesn't reflect people's will) No response % 9% 8% 9% 17% 42% 62% 82% 68% 29% 9% 13% Total (n=507) Malay (n=236) Chinese (n=211) Indian (n=60) 15

16 Views on the role of the Palace in current crisis (across age groups, gender and location) To what extent do you think the role of the Palace in this issue reflect or does not reflect the will of the Perak people? Yes (Reflects the will of the people) Don't know No (Doesn't reflect people's will) No response % 6% 1% 12% 8% 9% 11% 1% 7% 1% 12% 9% 9% 1% 4% 3% 59% 62% 68% 55% 69% 64% 59% 61% 61% 64% 6 73% 29% 25% 32% 24% 28% 27% 35% 26% 27% 38% 22% Total (n=507) Male (n=251) Female (n=256) (n=51) (n=94) (n=127) (n=136) 61 and above (n=99) Urban (n=254) Rural (n=253) Private sector (n=95) Civil service (n=63) 16

17 Impact of the crisis on Pakatan Rakyat In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Pakatan Rakyat (PR) Increase a lot Increase a little Decrease a little Decrease a lot Don't know No response 2% 3% 2% 5% 13% 3% 14% 14% 1% 13% 8% 22% 26% 15% 43% 28% 17% 28% 19% 32% Total (n=507) Malay (n=236) Chinese (n=211) Indian (n=60) Pakatan Rakyat (PR) 17

18 Impact of the crisis on Barisan Nasional In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Barisan Nasional (BN) 10 Increase a lot Increase a little Decrease a little Decrease a lot Don't know No response 1% 1% 2% 12% 12% 14% 8% % 16% 23% 36% 38% 31% 23% 27% 41% 15% 17% 25% 13% 6% 1 1% Total (n=507) Malay (n=236) Chinese (n=211) Indian (n=60) Barisan Nasional (BN) 18

19 Impact of the crisis on democracy In your view, will the crisis in Perak increase or decrease support of the people for the following institutions? Democracy in Malaysia Increase a lot Increase a little Decrease a little Decrease a lot Don't know No response 3% 17% 18% 29% 22% 12% 1% 12% 9% 31% 17% 5% 24% 25% 34% 11% 2% 15% 25% 5% 23% Total (n=507) Malay (n=236) Chinese (n=211) 1% Indian (n=60) Democracy in Malaysia 19

20 Views on solutions In your view, which of the following is the best solution to the current Perak crisis? 1 33% 35% 28% 3% 1% Call for fresh polls Hold 3 by-elections Accept the new BN Others Don't know at areas where the state government ADUNs defected 20

21 Views on solutions (across races) In your view, which of the following is the best solution to the current Perak crisis? Call for fresh polls for the entire state 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 4% 5% 2% 7% 13% 28% 35% 33% Don't know Others Accept the new BN state government Hold 3 by-elections at areas where the ADUNs defected 51% 26% 44% 37% 44% 43% Total (n=507) Malay (n=236) Chinese (n=211) Indian (n=60) 21