Cursed? On the Gambler s Fallacy, Confirmation Bias, and the Case of Mini War Gaming s Quirk
|
|
- Rosamund Thomas
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 MUSINGS OF A PHILOGAMER 007 Cursed? On the Gambler s Fallacy, Confirmation Bias, and the Case of Mini War Gaming s Quirk Matthew Gray Army Gaming 05 August Introduction Consider, for a moment, the following scenario. You and a friend have decided to hammer out a few rounds of your favorite table-top wargame. Although neither of you has any clear advantage at the outset, within a few minutes you begin to feel that the victory has started to elude your grasp. Roll after roll things just do not seem to go your way as the dice reveal string upon string of frustrating numbers. It looks as if the dice gods have turned against you as you sit helplessly and watch your army gradually crumble. In short course the game comes to an end with you suffering a massive defeat. Given this experience you determine the most reasonable conclusion is, simply, that you are cursed. Long-time gamers as well as newcomers will most certainly recognize themselves in this story. We have all had the experience of entering a dice-casting drought where our rolling hand seems to be as cold as Dwarven steel left out in the Norse winter. Of course, few (if any) of us thinks that we are literally cursed. That is, the language of curses is merely employed in a metaphorical manner. Even so, we oftentimes do end up with some vague belief that there is some pattern at work in our misfortune that tips the scales of fate against us. Beyond this point, however, few of us ever venture. In what follows, I would like to explore the phenomenon of the curse of the dice rolls. For those of you who find the idea of a curse appealing or who enjoy the mystique of the possibility 1
2 of unknown forces influencing your dice rolls, my argument will most likely be rather disappointing. In short, I claim that although strings of bad rolls (e.g., a long string of 1s) certainly occur, these stings are rarely, if ever, a sign of any deviation from statistical averages. Instead, the idea of a curse can be traced back in part to two different forms of fallacious thinking, namely the Gambler s Fallacy and Confirmation Bias. To begin, we sketch out the Gambler s Fallacy and Confirmation Bias in turn after which we then take up the case of the Mini War Gaming employee Quirk and the apparent curse of bad rolls (i.e., 1s) under which he suffers. In relation to this case we will carry out our philosophical and statistical analysis as well as put forward several reflections on probability and human psychology. 2. The Gambler s Fallacy Let us begin with the Gambler s Fallacy. The Gambler s Fallacy, what is also known as the Monte Carlo Fallacy or the Fallacy of the Maturity of Chances, is an incorrect manner of reasoning by which one assumes that independently random events are in fact influenced by surrounding and past events. A good example of this is how some people understand the roulette wheel at a casino to function. If the wheel is constructed in a fair manner, each spin operates as an isolated random event in which a ball, after being whirled around the wheel, lands on one of 37 or 38 colored and numbered pockets. 1 Despite this, it is common for both operators and gamblers to believe that a string of occurrences, for example, 12 rolls of black, entails that the roll of red will be more likely the next time. This, however, is incorrect. As Stuart A. Vyse nicely puts it, Each spin of the wheel is an independent event and has no effect on subsequent spins. Even if twenty-five blacks were rolled in a row, the probability of a red on the next spin would be unchanged. 2 To use an even simpler example, the chances of flipping heads on a coin are always 50/50 irrespective of the result of preceding flips. Indeed, this fallacious way of thinking has had some deleterious consequences such as in the case of the patrons of the Monte Carlo Casino from which the fallacy gains its name. On August 18, 1913 gamblers within the casino received word that the roulette table was rolling a long streak of black and consequently they rushed the table in order to bet on the inevitable red. Red, however, was long coming not before 26 consecutive spins of black. And in the long road to 26, betters, doubling-down in their belief that red had to be more likely on the next spin, lost millions of francs to the casino. The gambler s fallacy is perhaps a far more common occurrence in our lives than we would care to admit. It shows up in our beliefs about sports events such as the cold streak in a batter or the hot hand in basketball, in the pride we take in our belief that we are able to predict 1 The number varies depending upon whether one is referencing the European or American wheels. 2 Stuart A. Vyse, Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Superstition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997), p
3 future events (that are in fact random), in our pointing to underlying reasons for why one person was infected with a sickness and another was not, and so on and so forth. And part of the reason we fall prey to this fallacy time and again is directly tied to our humanity. As human beings we seek narrative unity to what happens around us perhaps as a rebellion against the uncomfortableness of randomness. Moreover, we remember what happens in the past and we are oftentimes unable to bracket these memories when we are faced with a new independent event. Put differently, we don t think as purely logical robots, but rather we think as beings with memories who are embedded within a narrative arc. Thus arises the Gambler s Fallacy. 3. Confirmation Bias A second form of fallacious thinking that we may touch upon is that of Confirmation Bias. In short, Confirmation Bias represents the irrational tendency to interpret or remember information in such a way that confirms one s already-held beliefs and affirms one s own hypotheses. 3 Consider for example the case of astrology and horoscopes. 4 Horoscope.com has listed the following for Pisces (my own sign) for today s date, August 5, 2017: You may have had a tendency to go about your daily routine lethargically lately, Pisces. But today the alarm clock wakes you up. You may understand that your help is urgently needed and there s no time to waste. You can expect to pour a great deal of energy into a single, well-defined goal. If you usually wander from project to project, this will change for you. 5 Now, a Pisces who believes in the power of astrology will likely find this message to be insightful. Why is this the case? Aside from the rather generic language of the horoscope which allows it to be applicable to almost any reader, the believer in astronomy interprets the message in a particular manner by which he lays greater emphasis on aspects of his life that conform to the description while conveniently overlooking aspects that contradict it. In other words, the faithful Pisces has a bias to believe in the truth of the message and therefore he ultimately ends up with evidence that confirms the belief he already holds. In many areas of life Confirmation Bias represents a dangerous breakdown of proper thinking: for example, when scientists are led to draw conclusions that affirm their scientific hypothesis but conclusions that are in fact false; or when we draw prejudiced conclusions about entire groups of people being a certain way because we notice and remember a few affirmative cases while missing altogether the overwhelming number of counterexamples with which we 3 See Frederic P. Miller, Agnes F. Vandome, and John McBrewster, Confirmation Bias (Saarbrücken, Germany: VDM Publishing, 2009). 4 See Vyse, Believing in Magic, pp Retrieved August 5,
4 are met on a daily basis. As such, it is crucially important that we remain vigilant in questioning our own biases and retaining a healthy skepticism about the conclusions we draw that, on the surface, appear to be so obvious. 4. The Case of Mini War Gaming s Quirk: Statistical Analysis But what, more specifically, do the Gambler s Fallacy and Confirmation Bias have to do with the notion of being cursed in wargaming? In moving towards answering this question, we may now take up the case of Mini War Gaming s Quirk through the lens of statistical analysis. As we mentioned in the introduction above, the story about the curse of Quirk has long been floating around Mini War Gaming headquarters, whether in numerous batreps or in various Sit and Talks. As we would be led to believe, Quirk has been doomed to roll 1s. When we carry out statistical analysis of a sampling of the games in question where Quirk has been identified as cursed, the data nevertheless reveals something far different. Consider three examples. First, in the Return to Fayoom: Mission 4A 6 batrep we notice that out of 706 rolls Quirk in fact rolled 1s a mere 109 times. This is 15.4% of the time, which is 1.3% below the statistical average of rolling a 1 on a D6. 7 In contrast, Steve, out of 507 rolls, ended up with a total of 96 cases of 1s, which is 2.2% over the statistical average. Moreover, when we consider 5s, which generally is a good number, Quirk was far over the average by 3.1% and Steve was in fact far under the average by 2.1%. From this data, we see that Steve would instead be a better candidate for the one who is cursed. Second, in Old World Wars Episode 223 we have a similar result. Here Quirk rolls almost entirely in-line with the statistical averages and even ends up at 0.5% below the average for rolls of 1s. Steve, on the other hand, shows greater deviation: not only is he massively under the average with respect to his rolls of 4s, but he is also 1.5% over the average with respect to the roll of 1s. Again, in this batrep Steve would appear to be the one who suffers from the curse. Finally, in War of the Realms Episode 145, we see that although Quirk is over the average with respect to the roll of 1s, he is nevertheless over by a mere 0.6%. Such a deviation can hardly be construed as anything like a curse. In conclusion, then, as the statistical data points out, Quirk is in fact snuggly aligned with the laws of probability. Or to phrase this another way, we simply have no evidence of Quirk suffering from anything like a pattern of bad luck. Briefly stated: no curse. 6 This is an important batrep precisely because Steve, in one of his Sit and Talks identifies it as one of the examples where the curse of Quirk is clearly manifested. 7 These percentages have been rounded. 4
5 5. Concluding Remarks: The Fallacies and the Curse With our conclusion concerning the curse of Quirk, we have now come full circle. What exactly can account for the discrepancy between the statistical data and the belief at Mini War Gaming regarding Quirk s misfortune? In short, we can point to the phenomena of the Gambler s Fallacy and Confirmation Bias that we have sketched out above. With respect to the latter, it is not difficult to imagine some form of this fallacious thinking at play at Mini War Gaming. Perhaps at some crucial point in a game Quirk rolled an untimely 1, which in that particular situation proved to be rather damning. Such an occurrence likely became the center of stories and jokes for the rest of the day, the week, and the month, which in turn embedded the occurrence into the memory of the content producers and began to create the narrative of Quirk as unlucky. In subsequent games, then, Quirk and Quirk s opponents suddenly began to notice 1s everywhere while inadvertently ignoring the statistical weight of these rolls in relation to the other rolls. The bias had now taken root, and each 1 rolled only served to confirm and to solidify the belief that Quirk was cursed. With respect to the former, once the narrative of Quirk as cursed took hold, it would then become easy for the Mini War Gaming staff to slide into a form of the Gambler s Fallacy (albeit an inverse form) in which they began more and more to believe that the string of 1s they believe they have observed would, due to Quirk s being cursed, entail that more 1s would certainly be on their way. And in this way, the curse of Quirk becomes legend, all the while lacking any basis in statistical evidence. It is important, however, to note that even though Quirk s rolls generally fell in-line with the laws of probability, such rolls nevertheless did occur at different times and in different situations within the games played situations that were more or less beneficial to Quirk. In this respect, it could be possible that the curse felt by Quirk was a result not of rolling 1s, but of rolling a disproportionate number of bad rolls in particular situations (e.g., rolling low when attacking but high when taking leadership tests). Fleshing out this possibility would require further analysis that runs far beyond the scope of this essay. My hypothesis, however, is that even in these cases there is likely not adequate deviation from the statistical norm to claim that Quirk is any worse off with respect to probability than any of his opponents. In the end, perhaps we the gamers see Quirk as cursed because we are not always thinking logically and rationally. Rather, we are instead trying to construct a narrative that fits into the arc of our gaming lives and that carries the semblance of coherence with our gaming memories. But perhaps this is precisely what we are after when we play these games: we are looking to suspend reality and to believe in magic. And perhaps such suspension and belief, if kept to the wargaming table and to our gaming halls, is harmless enough to be entertained and embraced. 5
6 Appendix: Statistical Breakdown of Dice Rolls from Three Games Return to Fayoom: Mission 4A Quirk +/- Steve +/- Total Rolls /15.4% -1.3% 96/18.9% +2.2% 2 114/16.1% -0.6% 82/16.2% -0.5% 3 124/17.6% +0.9% 90/17.8% +1.1% 4 104/14.7% -2.0% 85/16.8% +0.1% 5 140/19.8% +3.1% 74/14.6% -2.1% 6 115/16.3% -0.4% 79/15.6% -1.1% Old World Wars: Episode 223 Quirk +/- Steve +/- Total Rolls /16.2% -0.5% 108/18.2% +1.5% 2 72/15.9% -0.8% 110/18.5% +1.8% 3 80/17.7% +1.0% 105/17.7% +1.0% 4 79/17.5% +0.8% 78/13.2% -3.5% 5 70/15.5% -1.2% 92/15.5% -1.2% 6 78/17.3% +0.6% 100/16.9% +0.2% War of the Realms: Episode 145 Quirk +/- Mitch +/- Total Rolls /17.3% +0.6% 82/15.0% -1.7% 2 150/18.4% +1.7% 98/17.9% +1.2% 3 125/15.3% -1.4% 100/18.3% +1.6% 4 144/17.6% +0.9% 105/19.2% +2.5% 5 123/15.1% -1.6% 82/15.0% -1.7% 6 131/16.1% -0.6% 80/14.6% -2.1% 6
CHAPTER 17: UNCERTAINTY AND RANDOM: WHEN IS CONCLUSION JUSTIFIED?
CHAPTER 17: UNCERTAINTY AND RANDOM: WHEN IS CONCLUSION JUSTIFIED? INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS Deduction the use of facts to reach a conclusion seems straightforward and beyond reproach. The reality
More informationMITOCW watch?v=ogo1gpxsuzu
MITOCW watch?v=ogo1gpxsuzu The following content is provided under a Creative Commons license. Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare continue to offer high quality educational resources for free. To
More informationInductive Reasoning.
Inductive Reasoning http://toknow-11.wikispaces.com/file/view/snowflake_logic.png/291213597/snowflake_logic.png Inductive reasoning is which we reason from particular, observed phenomena to generalizations.
More informationWorld without Design: The Ontological Consequences of Natural- ism , by Michael C. Rea.
Book reviews World without Design: The Ontological Consequences of Naturalism, by Michael C. Rea. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2004, viii + 245 pp., $24.95. This is a splendid book. Its ideas are bold and
More informationModule - 02 Lecturer - 09 Inferential Statistics - Motivation
Introduction to Data Analytics Prof. Nandan Sudarsanam and Prof. B. Ravindran Department of Management Studies and Department of Computer Science and Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
More informationBayesian Probability
Bayesian Probability Patrick Maher September 4, 2008 ABSTRACT. Bayesian decision theory is here construed as explicating a particular concept of rational choice and Bayesian probability is taken to be
More informationThe following content is provided under a Creative Commons license. Your support
MITOCW Lecture 14 The following content is provided under a Creative Commons license. Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare continue to offer high quality educational resources for free. To make a
More informationScientific Realism and Empiricism
Philosophy 164/264 December 3, 2001 1 Scientific Realism and Empiricism Administrative: All papers due December 18th (at the latest). I will be available all this week and all next week... Scientific Realism
More informationThink by Simon Blackburn. Chapter 6a Reasoning
Think by Simon Blackburn Chapter 6a Reasoning Introduction Philosophers attach enormous significance to our capacity to reason, and for this reason the study of reasoning itself is the most fundamental
More informationMATH 1000 PROJECT IDEAS
MATH 1000 PROJECT IDEAS (1) Birthday Paradox (TAKEN): This question was briefly mentioned in Chapter 13: How many people must be in a room before there is a greater than 50% chance that some pair of people
More informationThe St. Petersburg paradox & the two envelope paradox
The St. Petersburg paradox & the two envelope paradox Consider the following bet: The St. Petersburg I am going to flip a fair coin until it comes up heads. If the first time it comes up heads is on the
More informationPhilosophical Perspectives, 16, Language and Mind, 2002 THE AIM OF BELIEF 1. Ralph Wedgwood Merton College, Oxford
Philosophical Perspectives, 16, Language and Mind, 2002 THE AIM OF BELIEF 1 Ralph Wedgwood Merton College, Oxford 0. Introduction It is often claimed that beliefs aim at the truth. Indeed, this claim has
More informationCraig on the Experience of Tense
Craig on the Experience of Tense In his recent book, The Tensed Theory of Time: A Critical Examination, 1 William Lane Craig offers several criticisms of my views on our experience of time. The purpose
More informationON WRITING PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAYS: SOME GUIDELINES Richard G. Graziano
ON WRITING PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAYS: SOME GUIDELINES Richard G. Graziano The discipline of philosophy is practiced in two ways: by conversation and writing. In either case, it is extremely important that a
More informationLogical (formal) fallacies
Fallacies in academic writing Chad Nilep There are many possible sources of fallacy an idea that is mistakenly thought to be true, even though it may be untrue in academic writing. The phrase logical fallacy
More informationIs the Skeptical Attitude the Attitude of a Skeptic?
Is the Skeptical Attitude the Attitude of a Skeptic? KATARZYNA PAPRZYCKA University of Pittsburgh There is something disturbing in the skeptic's claim that we do not know anything. It appears inconsistent
More informationHow to Write a Philosophy Paper
How to Write a Philosophy Paper The goal of a philosophy paper is simple: make a compelling argument. This guide aims to teach you how to write philosophy papers, starting from the ground up. To do that,
More information16 Free Will Requires Determinism
16 Free Will Requires Determinism John Baer The will is infinite, and the execution confined... the desire is boundless, and the act a slave to limit. William Shakespeare, Troilus and Cressida, III. ii.75
More information5: Preliminaries to the Argument
5: Preliminaries to the Argument In this chapter, we set forth the logical structure of the argument we will use in chapter six in our attempt to show that Nfc is self-refuting. Thus, our main topics in
More informationNaturalism vs. Conceptual Analysis. Marcin Miłkowski
Naturalism vs. Conceptual Analysis Marcin Miłkowski WARNING This lecture might be deliberately biased against conceptual analysis. Presentation Plan Conceptual Analysis (CA) and dogmatism How to wake up
More information6.041SC Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability, Fall 2013 Transcript Lecture 3
6.041SC Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability, Fall 2013 Transcript Lecture 3 The following content is provided under a Creative Commons license. Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare
More information145 Philosophy of Science
Scientific realism Christian Wüthrich http://philosophy.ucsd.edu/faculty/wuthrich/ 145 Philosophy of Science A statement of scientific realism Characterization (Scientific realism) Science aims to give
More informationPHI 1700: Global Ethics
PHI 1700: Global Ethics Session 3 February 11th, 2016 Harman, Ethics and Observation 1 (finishing up our All About Arguments discussion) A common theme linking many of the fallacies we covered is that
More informationIs Epistemic Probability Pascalian?
Is Epistemic Probability Pascalian? James B. Freeman Hunter College of The City University of New York ABSTRACT: What does it mean to say that if the premises of an argument are true, the conclusion is
More informationChoosing Rationally and Choosing Correctly *
Choosing Rationally and Choosing Correctly * Ralph Wedgwood 1 Two views of practical reason Suppose that you are faced with several different options (that is, several ways in which you might act in a
More informationSøren Kierkegaard Philosophical Fragments, Concluding Scientific Postscript excerpts 1 PHIL101 Prof. Oakes updated: 10/10/13 12:03 PM
Søren Kierkegaard Philosophical Fragments, Concluding Scientific Postscript excerpts 1 PHIL101 Prof. Oakes updated: 10/10/13 12:03 PM Section III: How do I know? Reading III.5 Søren Kierkegaard (1813-1855)
More informationResponses to Respondents RESPONSE #1 Why I Reject Exegetical Conservatism
Responses to Respondents RESPONSE #1 Why I Reject Exegetical Conservatism I think all of us can agree that the following exegetical principle, found frequently in fundamentalistic circles, is a mistake:
More informationWhat is Pseudoscience?
What is Pseudoscience? A theory, methodology, or practice that purports to be scientific yet is without scientific foundation. By Jason Braithwaite Ph.D, John Jackson 2006 Pseudosciences are practices
More informationDirect Realism and the Brain-in-a-Vat Argument by Michael Huemer (2000)
Direct Realism and the Brain-in-a-Vat Argument by Michael Huemer (2000) One of the advantages traditionally claimed for direct realist theories of perception over indirect realist theories is that the
More information1. What is Philosophy?
[Welcome to the first handout of your Introduction to Philosophy Mooc! This handout is designed to complement the video lecture by giving you a written summary of the key points covered in the videos.
More informationSUPPORT MATERIAL FOR 'DETERMINISM AND FREE WILL ' (UNIT 2 TOPIC 5)
SUPPORT MATERIAL FOR 'DETERMINISM AND FREE WILL ' (UNIT 2 TOPIC 5) Introduction We often say things like 'I couldn't resist buying those trainers'. In saying this, we presumably mean that the desire to
More informationNow you know what a hypothesis is, and you also know that daddy-long-legs are not poisonous.
Objectives: Be able to explain the basic process of scientific inquiry. Be able to explain the power and limitations of scientific inquiry. Be able to distinguish a robust hypothesis from a weak or untestable
More informationLogic -type questions
Logic -type questions [For use in the Philosophy Test and the Philosophy section of the MLAT] One of the questions on a test may take the form of a logic exercise, starting with the definition of a key
More informationMarcel Sarot Utrecht University Utrecht, The Netherlands NL-3508 TC. Introduction
RBL 09/2004 Collins, C. John Science & Faith: Friends or Foe? Wheaton, Ill.: Crossway, 2003. Pp. 448. Paper. $25.00. ISBN 1581344309. Marcel Sarot Utrecht University Utrecht, The Netherlands NL-3508 TC
More informationA solution to the problem of hijacked experience
A solution to the problem of hijacked experience Jill is not sure what Jack s current mood is, but she fears that he is angry with her. Then Jack steps into the room. Jill gets a good look at his face.
More informationGandalf s Solution to the Newcomb Problem. Ralph Wedgwood
Gandalf s Solution to the Newcomb Problem Ralph Wedgwood I wish it need not have happened in my time, said Frodo. So do I, said Gandalf, and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them
More informationNICHOLAS J.J. SMITH. Let s begin with the storage hypothesis, which is introduced as follows: 1
DOUBTS ABOUT UNCERTAINTY WITHOUT ALL THE DOUBT NICHOLAS J.J. SMITH Norby s paper is divided into three main sections in which he introduces the storage hypothesis, gives reasons for rejecting it and then
More informationDegrees of Belief II
Degrees of Belief II HT2017 / Dr Teruji Thomas Website: users.ox.ac.uk/ mert2060/2017/degrees-of-belief 1 Conditionalisation Where we have got to: One reason to focus on credences instead of beliefs: response
More informationINTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING. Unit 4A - Statistical Inference Part 1
1 INTRODUCTION TO HYPOTHESIS TESTING Unit 4A - Statistical Inference Part 1 Now we will begin our discussion of hypothesis testing. This is a complex topic which we will be working with for the rest of
More informationThe End Times Ostrich Syndrome
The End Times Ostrich Syndrome Take heed, keep on the alert; for you do not know when the appointed time will come Therefore, be on the alert for you do not know when the master of the house is coming,
More informationProbability Distributions TEACHER NOTES MATH NSPIRED
Math Objectives Students will compare the distribution of a discrete sample space to distributions of randomly selected outcomes from that sample space. Students will identify the structure that emerges
More informationSeptember 11, 1998 N.G.I.S.C. New Orleans Meeting. Within the next 15 minutes I will. make a comprehensive summary of dozens and dozens of research
September, N.G.I.S.C. New Orleans Meeting CHAIRMAN JAMES: Mr. Ladouceur. MR. LADOUCEUR: Within the next minutes I will make a comprehensive summary of dozens and dozens of research that we've conducted
More informationTheories of epistemic justification can be divided into two groups: internalist and
1 Internalism and externalism about justification Theories of epistemic justification can be divided into two groups: internalist and externalist. Internalist theories of justification say that whatever
More informationPhilosophy Epistemology Topic 5 The Justification of Induction 1. Hume s Skeptical Challenge to Induction
Philosophy 5340 - Epistemology Topic 5 The Justification of Induction 1. Hume s Skeptical Challenge to Induction In the section entitled Sceptical Doubts Concerning the Operations of the Understanding
More informationIntroductory Statistics Day 25. Paired Means Test
Introductory Statistics Day 25 Paired Means Test 4.4 Paired Tests Find the data set textbooks.xlsx on the Moodle page. This data set is from OpenIntro Stats. In this data set we have 73 textbooks that
More informationBayesian Probability
Bayesian Probability Patrick Maher University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign November 24, 2007 ABSTRACT. Bayesian probability here means the concept of probability used in Bayesian decision theory. It
More informationAre Miracles Identifiable?
Are Miracles Identifiable? 1. Some naturalists argue that no matter how unusual an event is it cannot be identified as a miracle. 1. If this argument is valid, it has serious implications for those who
More informationPHL340 Handout 8: Evaluating Dogmatism
PHL340 Handout 8: Evaluating Dogmatism 1 Dogmatism Last class we looked at Jim Pryor s paper on dogmatism about perceptual justification (for background on the notion of justification, see the handout
More informationThe unity of the normative
The unity of the normative The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Scanlon, T. M. 2011. The Unity of the Normative.
More informationThe Paradox of the stone and two concepts of omnipotence
Filo Sofija Nr 30 (2015/3), s. 239-246 ISSN 1642-3267 Jacek Wojtysiak John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin The Paradox of the stone and two concepts of omnipotence Introduction The history of science
More informationResurrection Quick Stop Lesson Plan
The teachfastly.com resources are not intended as a complete curriculum. The activities are designed to be woven into your existing teaching. This is therefore not a single lesson plan, but rather a quick
More informationReviewed Work: Why We Argue (and How We Should): A Guide to Political Disagreement, by Scott Aikin and Robert Talisse
College of Saint Benedict and Saint John s University DigitalCommons@CSB/SJU Philosophy Faculty Publications Philosophy 12-2014 Reviewed Work: Why We Argue (and How We Should): A Guide to Political Disagreement,
More informationPhilosophy 12 Study Guide #4 Ch. 2, Sections IV.iii VI
Philosophy 12 Study Guide #4 Ch. 2, Sections IV.iii VI Precising definition Theoretical definition Persuasive definition Syntactic definition Operational definition 1. Are questions about defining a phrase
More informationVan Fraassen: Arguments Concerning Scientific Realism
Aaron Leung Philosophy 290-5 Week 11 Handout Van Fraassen: Arguments Concerning Scientific Realism 1. Scientific Realism and Constructive Empiricism What is scientific realism? According to van Fraassen,
More informationContent Area Variations of Academic Language
Academic Expressions for Interpreting in Language Arts 1. It really means because 2. The is a metaphor for 3. It wasn t literal; that s the author s way of describing how 4. The author was trying to teach
More informationWHY RELATIVISM IS NOT SELF-REFUTING IN ANY INTERESTING WAY
Preliminary draft, WHY RELATIVISM IS NOT SELF-REFUTING IN ANY INTERESTING WAY Is relativism really self-refuting? This paper takes a look at some frequently used arguments and its preliminary answer to
More informationLet s explore a controversial topic DHMO. (aka Dihydrogen monoxide)
Let s explore a controversial topic DHMO (aka Dihydrogen monoxide) DHMO.org Dihydrogen-monoxide (Transtronics site) Coalition to Ban DHMO Ban Dihydrogen Monoxide! DHMO Chemical Danger Alert - The Horror
More informationTHE GOD OF QUARKS & CROSS. bridging the cultural divide between people of faith and people of science
THE GOD OF QUARKS & CROSS bridging the cultural divide between people of faith and people of science WHY A WORKSHOP ON FAITH AND SCIENCE? The cultural divide between people of faith and people of science*
More informationthe negative reason existential fallacy
Mark Schroeder University of Southern California May 21, 2007 the negative reason existential fallacy 1 There is a very common form of argument in moral philosophy nowadays, and it goes like this: P1 It
More informationThinking and Reasoning
Syllogistic Reasoning Thinking and Reasoning Syllogistic Reasoning Erol ÖZÇELİK The other key type of deductive reasoning is syllogistic reasoning, which is based on the use of syllogisms. Syllogisms are
More informationMany Minds are No Worse than One
Replies 233 Many Minds are No Worse than One David Papineau 1 Introduction 2 Consciousness 3 Probability 1 Introduction The Everett-style interpretation of quantum mechanics developed by Michael Lockwood
More informationBritish Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 62 (2011), doi: /bjps/axr026
British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 62 (2011), 899-907 doi:10.1093/bjps/axr026 URL: Please cite published version only. REVIEW
More informationNON-COGNITIVISM AND THE PROBLEM OF MORAL-BASED EPISTEMIC REASONS: A SYMPATHETIC REPLY TO CIAN DORR
DISCUSSION NOTE NON-COGNITIVISM AND THE PROBLEM OF MORAL-BASED EPISTEMIC REASONS: BY JOSEPH LONG JOURNAL OF ETHICS & SOCIAL PHILOSOPHY DISCUSSION NOTE OCTOBER 2016 URL: WWW.JESP.ORG COPYRIGHT JOSEPH LONG
More informationWarrant, Proper Function, and the Great Pumpkin Objection
Warrant, Proper Function, and the Great Pumpkin Objection A lvin Plantinga claims that belief in God can be taken as properly basic, without appealing to arguments or relying on faith. Traditionally, any
More informationDiscussion Notes for Bayesian Reasoning
Discussion Notes for Bayesian Reasoning Ivan Phillips - http://www.meetup.com/the-chicago-philosophy-meetup/events/163873962/ Bayes Theorem tells us how we ought to update our beliefs in a set of predefined
More informationJohn Locke. An Essay Concerning Human Understanding
John Locke An Essay Concerning Human Understanding From Rationalism to Empiricism Empiricism vs. Rationalism Empiricism: All knowledge ultimately rests upon sense experience. All justification (our reasons
More informationDetachment, Probability, and Maximum Likelihood
Detachment, Probability, and Maximum Likelihood GILBERT HARMAN PRINCETON UNIVERSITY When can we detach probability qualifications from our inductive conclusions? The following rule may seem plausible:
More informationDelusions and Other Irrational Beliefs Lisa Bortolotti OUP, Oxford, 2010
Book Review Delusions and Other Irrational Beliefs Lisa Bortolotti OUP, Oxford, 2010 Elisabetta Sirgiovanni elisabetta.sirgiovanni@isgi.cnr.it Delusional people are people saying very bizarre things like
More informationUNIVERSITY OF MALTA THE MATRICULATION EXAMINATION ADVANCED LEVEL
UNIVERSITY OF MALTA THE MATRICULATION EXAMINATION ADVANCED LEVEL PHILOSOPHY MAY 2017 EXAMINERS REPORT ADVANCED PHILOSOPHY MAY 2017 SESSION EXAMINERS REPORT Part 1: Statistical Information Table 1 shows
More informationConsciousness might be defined as the perceiver of mental phenomena. We might say that there are no differences between one perceiver and another, as
2. DO THE VALUES THAT ARE CALLED HUMAN RIGHTS HAVE INDEPENDENT AND UNIVERSAL VALIDITY, OR ARE THEY HISTORICALLY AND CULTURALLY RELATIVE HUMAN INVENTIONS? Human rights significantly influence the fundamental
More informationThe Advancement: A Book Review
From the SelectedWorks of Gary E. Silvers Ph.D. 2014 The Advancement: A Book Review Gary E. Silvers, Ph.D. Available at: https://works.bepress.com/dr_gary_silvers/2/ The Advancement: Keeping the Faith
More informationRealism and instrumentalism
Published in H. Pashler (Ed.) The Encyclopedia of the Mind (2013), Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, pp. 633 636 doi:10.4135/9781452257044 mark.sprevak@ed.ac.uk Realism and instrumentalism Mark Sprevak
More informationCan Things Get Better?
Can Things Get Better? by Fred Alan Wolf, Ph.D. Have Brains / Will Travel San Francisco CA mailto:fred@fredalanwolf.com web page: http://www.fredalanwolf.com Wolf: Can Things get Better? 2 Our world always
More informationCRUCIAL TOPICS IN THE DEBATE ABOUT THE EXISTENCE OF EXTERNAL REASONS
CRUCIAL TOPICS IN THE DEBATE ABOUT THE EXISTENCE OF EXTERNAL REASONS By MARANATHA JOY HAYES A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
More informationGeorge Soros: How He Knows What He Knows: Part 1: The Belief in Fallibility (First in a Four- Part Exclusive Series) Zeroing In
George Soros: How He Knows What He Knows: Part 1: The Belief in Fallibility (First in a Four- Part Exclusive Series) by: Flavia Cymbalista, Ph.D., with Desmond MacRae There are few who have not been dazzled
More informationTake Home Exam #1. PHI 1500: Major Issues in Philosophy Prof. Lauren R. Alpert
PHI 1500: Major Issues in Philosophy Prof. Lauren R. Alpert Name: Date: Take Home Exam #1 Instructions Answer as many questions as you are able to. Please write your answers clearly in the blanks provided.
More informationWho or what is God?, asks John Hick (Hick 2009). A theist might answer: God is an infinite person, or at least an
John Hick on whether God could be an infinite person Daniel Howard-Snyder Western Washington University Abstract: "Who or what is God?," asks John Hick. A theist might answer: God is an infinite person,
More informationDifference between Science and Religion? - A Superficial, yet Tragi-Comic Misunderstanding
Scientific God Journal November 2012 Volume 3 Issue 10 pp. 955-960 955 Difference between Science and Religion? - A Superficial, yet Tragi-Comic Misunderstanding Essay Elemér E. Rosinger 1 Department of
More informationEvery simple idea has a simple impression, which resembles it; and every simple impression a correspondent idea
'Every simple idea has a simple impression, which resembles it; and every simple impression a correspondent idea' (Treatise, Book I, Part I, Section I). What defence does Hume give of this principle and
More informationPhilosophy 148 Announcements & Such. Inverse Probability and Bayes s Theorem II. Inverse Probability and Bayes s Theorem III
Branden Fitelson Philosophy 148 Lecture 1 Branden Fitelson Philosophy 148 Lecture 2 Philosophy 148 Announcements & Such Administrative Stuff I ll be using a straight grading scale for this course. Here
More informationA Question. What is Rational?
The question is solely in response to claims made by atheists that there is no God. It is significant that atheists use the most ridiculous arguments against God, and yet never prove His non-existence!
More informationThe problems of induction in scientific inquiry: Challenges and solutions. Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction Defining induction...
The problems of induction in scientific inquiry: Challenges and solutions Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction... 2 2.0 Defining induction... 2 3.0 Induction versus deduction... 2 4.0 Hume's descriptive
More informationGoheen, Michael. A Light to the Nations: The Missional Church and the Biblical Story. Grand Rapids, MI: Baker, 2011.
Goheen, Michael. A Light to the Nations: The Missional Church and the Biblical Story. Grand Rapids, MI: Baker, 2011. Michael Goheen is Professor of Worldview and Religious Studies at Trinity Western University,
More informationNINETY FIVE PRETERIST THESES AGAINST A FUTURE APOCALYPSE. By Morrison Lee 2015
AUSTRALIAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE RATIONAL STUDY OF PROPHECY NINETY FIVE PRETERIST THESES AGAINST A FUTURE APOCALYPSE By Morrison Lee 2015 THE MANY FAILINGS OF A LITERAL THEORY OF THE SECOND COMING. It has
More informationTHE INFERENCE TO THE BEST
I THE INFERENCE TO THE BEST WISH to argue that enumerative induction should not be considered a warranted form of nondeductive inference in its own right.2 I claim that, in cases where it appears that
More information1 Introduction. Cambridge University Press Epistemic Game Theory: Reasoning and Choice Andrés Perea Excerpt More information
1 Introduction One thing I learned from Pop was to try to think as people around you think. And on that basis, anything s possible. Al Pacino alias Michael Corleone in The Godfather Part II What is this
More informationThe Problem of the External World
The Problem of the External World External World Skepticism Consider this painting by Rene Magritte: Is there a tree outside? External World Skepticism Many people have thought that humans are like this
More informationWriting your Paper: General Guidelines!
Writing your Paper: General Guidelines! 1. The argument: general introduction The argument must be an interpretive hypothesis your paper formulates and demonstrates. The argument should be recognizably
More informationJeffrey, Richard, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing, Cambridge University Press, 2004, 140 pp, $21.99 (pbk), ISBN
Jeffrey, Richard, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing, Cambridge University Press, 2004, 140 pp, $21.99 (pbk), ISBN 0521536685. Reviewed by: Branden Fitelson University of California Berkeley Richard
More informationHintikka s Socratic Epistemology Meets Gettier s Counterexamples
Hintikka s Socratic Epistemology Meets Gettier s Counterexamples John Ian K. Boongaling Abstract The overall goal of this paper is to apply Hintikka s Socratic Epistemology to Gettier s counterexamples
More informationScientific Progress, Verisimilitude, and Evidence
L&PS Logic and Philosophy of Science Vol. IX, No. 1, 2011, pp. 561-567 Scientific Progress, Verisimilitude, and Evidence Luca Tambolo Department of Philosophy, University of Trieste e-mail: l_tambolo@hotmail.com
More informationMcCLOSKEY ON RATIONAL ENDS: The Dilemma of Intuitionism
48 McCLOSKEY ON RATIONAL ENDS: The Dilemma of Intuitionism T om R egan In his book, Meta-Ethics and Normative Ethics,* Professor H. J. McCloskey sets forth an argument which he thinks shows that we know,
More informationDavid Hume ( ) and His Attack on Divine Action (Miracles) and Providence: From Empiricism to Skepticism and Naturalism
David Hume (1711-1776) and His Attack on Divine Action (Miracles) and Providence: From Empiricism to Skepticism and Naturalism Prayer Before Studying Theology: O God, who has prepared for them that love
More informationEstablishing premises
Establishing premises This is hard, subtle, and crucial to good arguments. Various kinds of considerations are used to establish the truth (high justification) of premises Deduction Done Analogy Induction
More informationxiv Truth Without Objectivity
Introduction There is a certain approach to theorizing about language that is called truthconditional semantics. The underlying idea of truth-conditional semantics is often summarized as the idea that
More informationAttfield, Robin, and Barry Wilkins, "Sustainability." Environmental Values 3, no. 2, (1994):
The White Horse Press Full citation: Attfield, Robin, and Barry Wilkins, "Sustainability." Environmental Values 3, no. 2, (1994): 155-158. http://www.environmentandsociety.org/node/5515 Rights: All rights
More informationA romp through the foothills of logic Session 3
A romp through the foothills of logic Session 3 It would be a good idea to watch the short podcast Understanding Truth Tables before attempting this podcast. (Slide 2) In the last session we learnt how
More informationOutline. The Resurrection Considered. Edwin Chong. Broader context Theistic arguments The resurrection Counter-arguments Craig-Edwards debate
The Resurrection Considered Edwin Chong July 22, 2007 Life@Faith 7-22-07 Outline Broader context Theistic arguments The resurrection Counter-arguments Craig-Edwards debate Life@Faith 7-22-07 2 1 Broader
More informationWRITING AN ESSAY. Introduction. Argument 1. Argument 2. Argument 3. Argument 4. Conclusion
WRITING AN ESSAY I. Structure Typical structure of an essay: Introduction Argument 1 Argument 2 Argument 3 Argument 4 Conclusion II. Writing an introduction The first few sentences should explain and introduce
More informationAPPEARANCE AND REALITY
Bertrand Russell, Problems of Philosophy CHAPTER I APPEARANCE AND REALITY IS there any knowledge in the world which is so certain that no reasonable man could doubt it? This question, which at first sight
More information