The Evolving American Presidency Series

Transcription

1 The Evolving American Presidency Series Series Foreword The American presidency touches virtually every aspect of American and world politics. And the presidency has become, for better or worse, the vital center of the American and global political systems. The framers of the American government would be dismayed at such a result. As invented at the Philadelphia Constitutional Convention in 1787, the presidency was to have been a part of the government with shared and overlapping powers, embedded within a separation-of-power system. If there was a vital center, it was the Congress; the presidency was to be a part, but by no means the centerpiece of that system. Over time, the presidency has evolved and grown in power, expectations, responsibilities, and authority. Wars, crises, depressions, industrialization, all served to add to the power of the presidency. And as the United States grew into a world power, presidential power also grew. As the United States became the world s leading superpower, the presidency rose in prominence and power, not only in the United States but on the world stage as well. It is the clash between the presidency as created and the presidency as it has developed that inspired this series. And it is the importance and power of the modern American presidency that makes understanding the office so vital. Like it or not, the American presidency stands at the vortex of power both within the United States and across the globe. This Palgrave series recognizes that the presidency is and has been an evolving institution, going from the original constitutional design as a chief clerk, to today where the president is the center of the American political constellation. This has caused several key dilemmas in our political system, not the least of which is that presidents face high expectations with limited constitutional resources. This causes presidents to find extraconstitutional means of governing. Thus, presidents must find ways to bridge the expectations/power gap while operating within the confines of a separation-of-power system designed to limit presidential authority. How presidents resolve these challenges and paradoxes is the central issue in modern governance. It is also the central theme of this book series. Michael A. Genovese Loyola Chair of Leadership Loyola Marymount University Palgrave s The Evolving American Presidency, Series Editor The Second Term of George W. Bush edited by Robert Maranto, Douglas M. Brattebo, and Tom Lansford The Presidency and the Challenge of Democracy edited by Michael A. Genovese and Lori Cox Han Religion and the American Presidency edited by Mark J. Rozell and Gleaves Whitney Religion and the Bush Presidency edited by Mark J. Rozell and Gleaves Whitney

2 Test by Fire: The War Presidency of George W. Bush by Robert Swansbrough American Royalty: The Bush and Clinton Families and the Danger to the American Presidency by Matthew T. Corrigan Accidental Presidents: Death, Assassination, Resignation, and Democratic Succession by Philip Abbott Presidential Power in Action: Implementing Supreme Court Detainee Decisions by Darren A. Wheeler President George W. Bush s Influence over Bureaucracy and Policy: Extraordinary Times, Extraordinary Powers edited by Colin Provost and Paul Teske Assessing George W. Bush s Legacy: The Right Man? edited by Iwan Morgan and Philip John Davies Acting Presidents: 100 Years of Plays about the Presidency by Bruce E. Altschuler America Responds to Terrorism: Conflict Resolution Strategies of Clinton, Bush, and Obama by Karen A. Feste Presidents in the Movies: American History and Politics on Screen edited by Iwan W. Morgan Watergate Remembered: The Legacy for American Politics edited by Michael A. Genovese and Iwan W. Morgan Clinton/Gore: Victory from a Shadow Box by Jeffrey J. Volle Bad Presidents: Failure in the White House by Philip Abbott The Unilateral Presidency and the News Media: The Politics of Framing Executive Power by Mark Major Maligned Presidents of the Late 19th Century by Max J. Skidmore Pitiful Giants: Presidents in Their Final Terms by Daniel P. Franklin The Unsustainable Presidency: Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Beyond by William F. Grover and Joseph G. Peschek Professional Pathways to the Presidency by Theresa Marchant-Shapiro

3 Professional Pathways to the Presidency Theresa Marchant-Shapiro

4 PROFESSIONAL PATHWAYS TO THE PRESIDENCY Copyright Theresa Marchant-Shapiro, Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. First published in 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN in the United States a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Marchant-Shapiro, Theresa. Professional pathways to the presidency / Theresa Marchant-Shapiro. pages cm. (The evolving American presidency) Summary: Presidential hopefuls frequently claim they are qualified because their job experience is the same as a great president. However they ignore the failed presidents who shared the same pathway. This book evaluates all the presidents systematically to determine how prior professional experience influences presidential performance -- Provided by publisher. 1. Presidents United States History. 2. Vocational qualifications Political aspects United States. I. Title. E176.1.M dc A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Knowledge Works (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: May

5 Contents List of Tables Preface vii ix One Preparing for Greatness 1 Two Generally Popular: Military Experience 23 Three Heir Apparent: Vice Presidents 41 Four Washington Insiders: Members of Congress 69 Five From the Mansion to the White House: Governors 91 Six The Chosen Ones: Presidential Appointees 109 Seven The Business of the Presidency: Nonpolitical Experience 135 Eight Modeling Greatness: Evaluating the Pathways to the Presidency 155 Appendix: Resumes of the Presidents 175 Notes 219 Bibliography 235 Index 247

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7 Tables 1.1 Presidential Greatness C-SPAN Ratings of the Presidents for Political Skills C-SPAN Ratings of the Presidents for Leadership Abilities C-SPAN Ratings of the Presidents for Character Attributes Presidential Greatness and Military Experience Impact of Military Experience on Presidential Performance Presidential Greatness and Political Experience among Generals Presidential Greatness and Vice Presidents Impact of Vice Presidential Experience on Presidential Performance Presidential Greatness and Succession among Vice Presidents Presidential Greatness among Vice Presidents, by Century Presidential Greatness among Twentieth-Century Vice Presidents Presidential Greatness and Congress Impact of Congressional Experience on Presidential Performance Presidential Greatness and House in Congress Presidential Greatness and Type of Senate Selection Presidential Greatness and Governors Impact of Gubernatorial Experience on Presidential Performance Presidential Greatness and Election as Governor Presidential Greatness and Strength of Elected Governor s Role Presidential Greatness and Presidential Appointments Impact of Appointive Experience on Presidential Performance Impact of Appointive Foreign Affairs Experience on Presidential Performance 130

8 viii Tables 6.4 Impact of Experience as Secretary of State on Presidential Performance Presidential Greatness and Political Experience among Appointees Impact of Experience as a Semiprofessional Appointee on Presidential Performance Presidential Greatness and Business Experience Impact of Business Experience on Presidential Performance Presidents as Rulers: Vice President and Presidential Performance Presidents as Executives: Major Political Offices and Presidential Performance Presidents as Executives: Major Political Offices and Political Skills (Cells Contain Standardized Coefficients) Presidential Greatness and Dark Horse Candidates Presidents as Politicians: Major Political Offices and Presidential Performance Presidents as Politicians: Major Political Offices and Presidential Leadership (Cells Contain Standardized Coefficients) 167

9 Preface In this book, I draw on three attributes I inherited from my father: his love of politics, his love of statistics, and his love of storytelling. The Marchant clan loves politics: My grandmother was a state legislator, and my dad continued the tradition by being actively involved in Democratic Party politics. My favorite memory is of 1976 when a Georgia peanut farmer, Jimmy Carter, was running for president as a Washington outsider. As was our tradition, dad and I went down to the county Democratic Party headquarters in Provo, Utah, and picked up campaign literature to pass out. Carter may have been at the top of the ticket, but in the state of Utah that year, there was also a new candidate running for governor. Calvin Rampton (D) had been governor for 12 years (yes, citizens of Utah used to elect Democrats!) but was stepping down. In his place, the party had nominated Scott Matheson. Wearing green buttons for Carter and brown buttons for Matheson, dad and I enjoyed our time together passing out campaign literature in local neighborhoods and discussing the candidates with whoever was interested. Come November 2, both of us were thrilled when both Carter and Matheson got elected. My dad decided that since I had campaigned for Matheson by handing out fliers that day, I must be (at least partially) responsible for his winning. Therefore, I deserved to go to the inauguration. Dad took me out of school that day to drive up to Salt Lake City and I, along with thousands of other well-wishers, watched as Matheson was sworn in as governor at his inauguration. For me the highlight of the day was meeting a state Supreme Court justice who years before had played checkers with my grandfather. Matheson was subsequently reelected in 1980 to serve a total of eight years as a Democratic governor in what would become the most conservative state in the country. (Two of his sons, Scott Matheson, Jr, and Jim Matheson, served in the US House of Representatives.) Jimmy Carter did not fare so well. He was defeated in 1980 by Ronald Reagan, probably the single-most loved politician in the state of Utah. I think that Carter was a good president and a truly great man, but not everyone shares my views. In particular, Nelson Polsby, a well-known and well-respected political scientist, thought that Carter was a terrible president. Polsby wondered how Carter could have been

10 x Preface nominated, much less elected. In the early 1980s, Chris Achen, who later became my dissertation chair, served on the Political Science faculty at Berkeley with Polsby. They would have conversations in which Polsby would rail on Carter. He would lay the blame for Carter on the nomination process that had become too sensitive to popular opinion and insufficiently tied to the preferences of party elite. Polsby reasoned that since presidents need to be able to work with Congress in order to get anything done, members of Congress ought to have more influence in the selection process. Achen disagreed. As a small d democrat, he thought that the people ought to be involved in the process. So once Achen joined the faculty at the University of Chicago, he and I decided to collect data about the nominations of all the presidents so that we could do a systematic analysis of the question. Did party elite or rank-and-file party members do a better job of choosing presidents? Polsby had initiated his evaluation of the nominating process with a single data point (the nomination of Jimmy Carter) and surmised that the process was flawed. Similarly, pundits frequently refer to individual presidents as evidence of what it takes to be a great president or, conversely, what dooms them to failure. Our goal was to evaluate the presidents in a more systematic way in order to get more generalizable results. This is where the second attribute that I inherited from my father kicked in: Dad loved statistics. He took great joy in teaching my mother and siblings the statistics they needed to complete their graduate theses. And he thoroughly enjoyed conducting surveys to analyze for his own research. I understand his feelings completely. I, too, take great joy in getting down into the raw numbers to find the model that best depicts an underlying causal relationship. At that point in the research project, I began to collect historical data on all the presidents. We initially wanted to see whether it was true that party elites pick nominees who are more likely to become great presidents. That initial project has morphed into a broader question. How can we recognize those individuals who have the potential for greatness as president? In that context, we began to ask about what types of prior professional experience best predict presidential greatness. This book is structured around the statistical analysis of those data. In order to code the nominations for quantitative analysis, I read all the historical sources I could find. These qualitative accounts appealed to the third attribute I inherited from my father: his love of storytelling. Dad loved nothing better than telling a good story.

11 Preface xi Again. And. Again. My husband, Andy, often became frustrated with my dad because he would drag his stories out so long. But I always enjoyed listening. It did not matter that I heard the stories before because they were worth hearing again. These days, Andy gets frustrated with me because instead of answering his questions with a single word I, like my father, tell the story. For me, stories are like life: The point is not in getting to the end; it is the process that counts. As I researched the presidents, I collected a host of stories that I used in my teaching over and over again. One of my favorite parts of teaching is the opportunity to tell stories that bring abstract concepts to life. I am not a qualitative researcher. The original research I contribute through this book is quantitative, not qualitative. But I wrote this book so that I could tell stories. I wanted to tell the stories of those individuals who would later become president of the United States. Much as I love statistics, I fear the current focus of political science research on quantitative analysis has meant that students do not graduate with a strong enough historical background to understand what the numbers mean in the real world. I hope that by combining the statistical analyses with these stories stories of real lives readers will walk away with a greater ability to identify what characteristics in presidents former lives distinguish the great from the not-so-great. The statistical analysis allows us the find the underlying patterns that prepare individuals for success as presidents. The individual accounts allow us to see how individuals have translated their specific experiences into success. I hope that in combination we will be able to look at candidates and make informed predictions how their past performance will translate into future service as a president. It is commonplace to say that books owe their existence to many more people than just the authors. That is certainly the case for this book. Foremost, my thanks go to Chris Achen for his support in graduate school and after. Not only do I owe him my professional career, this project was his brainchild. I am grateful to my colleague and friend from sociology, Greg Adams, for his comments on the early chapters of the book his insights into Weber were very valuable. My former student, Chris Bandecchi, stepped in when I felt overwhelmed and helped by editing the last chapter. Garrison Nelson contributed his encyclopedic knowledge of the presidents by reviewing the resumes. Thanks to all my friends and relations who prayed for me when my laptop was stolen. It may not have been recovered, but those prayers were answered by divine inspiration as I rewrote the three chapters that I lost.

12 xii Preface Many students contributed to this project over the years. Dawn Harrington and Kristi Campbell researched the nominations of all the presidents. Allison Goldberg studied presidents relations with Congress. Tomas Herazo gathered data for the resumes. Kurt Calash analyzed presidential appointments. Julie Jones looked into presidents who had lost elections. My understanding of the presidents expanded based on term papers written by my students in studying elections, students at Union College wrote about specific presidential nominations; in studying leadership, students at Southern Connecticut State University wrote about the leadership styles exhibited by various presidents. As the research project unfolded, I was the beneficiary of advice from countless panel discussants and participants. Southern Connecticut State University supported the project by granting me research reassigned time to work on it. And, of course, my family s support has been central to my ability to complete the project. They have been remarkably patient as stacks of books piled up around the house. I am particularly grateful to my spouse, Andy. Every night he would come home and ask what I had learned that day. Then he would patiently listen as I told him my favorite story for the day. Those sessions were very helpful in helping me formulate the words to articulate the most important features of what were inevitably complex political situations. Andy also gave me the outsider s perspective to help me see how timeless the principles of presidential leadership are. He keeps telling me that my next book should be called The More Things Stay the Same, because as I told him the stories it became clear that none of the hardships of modern presidents are new. It has all happened before.