Jane's Intelligence Review. Foreign fighters - Battle-hardened Europeans return from Syria

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1 Jane's Intelligence Review Foreign fighters - Battle-hardened Europeans return from Syria [Content preview Subscribe to Jane s Intelligence Review for full article] Increasing numbers of European citizens have travelled to Syria to fight for Islamist groups in the civil war. Rafaello Pantucci examines the threat facing Europe from fighters returning home and the risk of domestic militant attacks as a result. Syrian militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) on 7 December 2013 posted an announcement on its Facebook page stating that a Luxembourg national using the battlefield name Abu Huthaifa had died in al-safira, Aleppo governorate. The news - although unconfirmed in any mainstream press - marked a new chapter in the history of global jihadism. As the first national from Luxembourg publicly known to have died fighting alongside jihadist groups in Syria, he became another 'first' in a war that is rapidly eclipsing all previous jihadist battlefields. For European security officials who are increasingly concerned about the conflict, 2013 marked a new high in a trend that had been rising since In its annual report on terrorist trends in Europe, the EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE- SAT) 2013, the European Police Office (Europol) reported that, "in 2012, there was a distinct rise in the number of EU citizens travelling to Syria, in a number of cases fighting alongside groups associated with religiously inspired terrorism". Page 1 of 8

A 21-year-old from Denmark sits on top of a Soviet-era ZPU-4 anti-aircraft gun at a training camp near Idlib and Aleppo, Syria, in May 2013.

2 A 21-year-old from Denmark sits on top of a Soviet-era ZPU-4 anti-aircraft gun at a training camp near Idlib and Aleppo, Syria, in May Public data and specific instances across Europe suggest that the majority of those reported to be fighting in Syria are in their 20s. (PA) Jihadist profiles Little is known about Abu Huthaifa. The brief statement posted about him on JeM's Facebook page indicated that he had entered Syria through Turkey and that he might be as young as 18 years old. Beyond this, he was a young Caucasian wearing traditional army garb. However, in his portrait there are a number of features observed among the European contingent fighting in Syria. First, the lack of clarity about his ethnicity reflects the broad background of the European foreign fighter contingent in Syria. Unlike the civil conflict in Libya, which seemed to draw mostly, but not only, Libyan Europeans to fight, the civil war in Syria has attracted Europeans of various ethnic backgrounds, from Arabs and South Asians to converts of every ethnicity. A review of available information about foreign fighters in Syria reveals that the broad base of fighters in the country reflects the ethnic breakdown of Muslims across Europe. According to the 2011 census, the majority of Muslims in the UK are of South Asian origin. Citizens of that origin equally represent the largest contingent of British foreign fighters in Syria. Europeans of multiple ethnicities with distinct national accents appear in videos recorded by jihadist groups on the battlefield. One video discovered in early June 2013, which purported to have been Page 2 of 8

3 taken in March, showed a group including Dutch-speaking individuals beheading someone identified as a Syrian government supporter, with at least one of those involved speaking Flemish (Belgian Dutch). Other videos to emerge actively encourage individuals to join the fighting in their native languages: English - by a Briton of seemingly African origin talking by the side of the road as he loads a pistol; Swedish - by Swedes of Arab origin; Danish; French; and other languages. German authorities have grown increasingly concerned about the activity of a 38-year-old former rapper, Denis Mamadou Cuspert. A Ghanaian-German convert, he was known by his stage name Deso Dogg or his battlefield kunya (an honorific title) Abu Talha al-almani. Prominent for his radical views in Germany before going to Syria, Cuspert has become the face of German jihad in Syria, releasing videos of himself rapping and calling on others to join the fight. It is unknown whether or not he is still alive. Second, Abu Huthaifa's age reflects the fact that jihad in Syria remains primarily attractive to the younger demographic, with a large number of teenagers in particular drawn to the fight. In October, Burkhard Freier, head of the North Rhine-Westphalia branch of the German domestic intelligence agency Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), told the ZDF (Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen) television network that his service had "observed adolescents who departed for Syria in order to fight there". In September, he reported that a group of more than 20 young German Muslims had gone from Germany to Turkey and onwards to Syria. Among the group there were five teenagers, including a 15-year-old. In December, the minister of the interior of the German federal state of Hesse, Boris Rhein, highlighted a study commissioned by his ministry, which suggested that of 23 males who had gone to fight in Syria, nine were still at school. In Norway, a pair of Somali-born sisters aged 16 and 19 declared in an to their parents, "Something needs to be done [about Syria]. We want to help the Muslims, and the only way to do so is to be with them in their pains and their joy." The girls' father tracked them down in Syria, but failed to persuade them to return. In Belgium, the worried parents of two teenagers - Jejoen Bontinck and Brian de Mulder - separately spoke to the international media in March and April of 2013, expressing their concerns about their sons, who had gone to fight in Syria. However, the spectrum of fighters also includes those who are middle-aged. Abdal Munem Mustafa Halima (also known as Abu Basir al-tartusi) - a London-based extremist preacher, believed to be in his 50s and originally from Syria - emerged in videos published online by the group Ansar al-sham in October 2012, seemingly addressing crowds in Latakia. One video posted on the video-sharing website YouTube is dated 8 August Travel and recruitment A third element that Abu Huthaifa's case highlights is the method of travelling to Syria. Having entered the country through Turkey, his case reveals the main route used by European foreign Page 3 of 8

fighters to the battlefield. In most cases, individuals travel to Turkey and from there cross the porous border into Syria, where they connect with Islamist groups on the ground.

4 fighters to the battlefield. In most cases, individuals travel to Turkey and from there cross the porous border into Syria, where they connect with Islamist groups on the ground. A Turkish soldier stands by an FNSS infantry fighting vehicle as he patrols the border with Syria, near Cilvegözü, Turkey, on 11 September Many European foreign fighters travel to Turkey and from there cross the porous border into Syria where they connect with Islamist groups on the ground. (PA) Sometimes it is done by road under the auspices of aid convoys from Europe. The convoys often carry genuine medical supplies or other essential goods and are driven by individuals who have raised money with a genuine intent to hand it over to refugees. Yet often unwittingly, the convoys also transport individuals who seek to join jihadist groups in Syria. As a result, border authorities at the UK port of Dover frequently stop and search suspicious individuals in convoys under Schedule 7 on port and border controls of the UK Terrorism Act Others fly into Turkey (sometimes on unused package holidays), using the country's well-connected main cities as points of entry from where they travel to the Syrian border by internal transport. In other instances, individuals take circuitous routes across Europe, driving to a smaller European airport to then take a flight to Turkey. Some go through North African countries such as Egypt and then take flights on to Lebanon or Turkey. A senior Turkish official at a presentation in London in late October 2013 reported that Turkish authorities had prevented several hundred individuals from crossing the border into Syria. However, given the reported number of European fighters on the ground, which could be in the low Page 4 of 8

5 thousands, this highlights the porosity of the border. According to media reports from early December, Turkey informed its European partners that during 2013 it had arrested and deported approximately 1,110 EU citizens who had arrived in Turkey with the intention of joining jihadist groups in Syria; requests for their detention had been received from other countries or the sharing of intelligence through the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol). The fourth element of Abu Huthaifa's profile becomes salient once he arrived in the country. Given that his biography was posted on a Facebook page that is managed by a group close to one of Al- Qaeda's affiliates - the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) - it seems likely that he was serving alongside this group. According to Zelin's study, only 20% of subjects reported group affiliation; the two primary Al-Qaeda affiliates on the battlefield, based on their responses, were ISIL and Jabhat al- Nusra. Nevertheless European fighters travelling to Syria. (IHS) Returnee threat Page 5 of 8

6 Shariah4Belgium has become notorious among European affiliates of the British group al- Muhajiroun - initially established in 1996 in the UK by now-excluded preacher Omar Bakri Mohammed and is currently overseen by preacher Anjem Choudary - because of allegations in the Belgian press that individuals connected to Shariah4Belgium in Syria had been recorded threatening attacks in Europe. For example, a Facebook message was sent to Dutch-language Belgian newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws listing a series of targets in Antwerp and Brussels to be attacked on 31 December In July 2012, one of the leaders of Shariah4Belgium, 22-year-old Houssien Elouassaki, was sentenced to 200 hours of community service in Belgium for "insults, threats, and racist comments" to a police officer. He failed to serve his sentence and subsequently fled to Syria, where he became the leader of a group of approximately Belgians who were connected with Jabhat al-nusra. In April 2013, Elouassaki's younger brother Hakim returned home from Syria to Vilvoorde, Belgium, having been seriously injured. Houssien was killed fighting in Syria on 13 September, according to sources quoted in the Belgian press. Based on reports in Belgian media verified by official sources, Houssien was overheard talking about wanting to attack the Palais de Justice in Brussels. Whether or not these threats were anywhere near becoming actual plots remains unclear. A far more dangerous militant cell was discovered in Kosovo in early November. Kosovar authorities conducted operations in the cities of Pristina and Gjilan, arresting six ethnic Albanians. A seventh suspect escaped. Two of the men were alleged to have attacked a pair of American Mormon missionaries in Pristina on 3 November, and those group members were arrested as they tried to purchase weapons from undercover officers. The status of legal proceedings against those detained was unknown at the time of going to press. According to the authorities' briefing with the Associated Press, the investigation into the cell had apparently lasted three months, and following the interception of a telephone call in which group members were heard discussing a possible attack in an unnamed European country, the group was arrested. The group was found to have in its possession a sniper rifle, a carbine, an assault rifle, two handguns, 1,200 rounds for an AK-47 assault rifle, and explosive materials for possibly making an improvised explosive device (IED). According to officials talking to the press at the time, two of the detainees had fought in Syria, and the broader cell was linked to a wider community of radicals who had been travelling back and forth to Syria. Far more mature than the threats emanating from the Belgian group, the Kosovo plot was of the type with links to Syria that concerns European security services, namely, individuals with battlefield experience and access to weapons who return home with the intent to carry out an attack. Kosovar authorities reported that following the arrests they received threats and demands to release the detainees, identified in the Serbian press as a group known as 'Jihad of Kosovo'. The Albanian group's targeting was not clear, but a long tradition of jihadist fighting in the Balkans has made the region a source of concern for authorities across Europe, with the problem aggravated by the fact that an estimated 150 Albanians are believed by Kosovar authorities to be fighting in Syria. Page 6 of 8

7 Despite the apparent severity of the Albanian threat, the most serious warnings are increasingly coming from the UK. The director general of the Security Service (MI5), Andrew Parker, and the head of the Counter-Terrorism Command (CTC), or SO15, at the Metropolitan Police, Commander Richard Walton, have mentioned the fact that the jihad in Syria is increasingly becoming a security threat beyond its borders. In his speech at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) on 8 October, Parker highlighted that MI5 had noted a substantial increase in cases with connections to Syria. According to Parker, "a growing proportion of our casework now has some link to Syria, mostly concerning individuals from the UK who have travelled to fight there or who aspire to do so". He also spoke of how MI5 judged that "[Jabhat] al-nusra and other extremist Sunni groups there aligned with Al-Qaeda aspire to attack Western countries". This threat was brought into sharper domestic focus in December, when Walton told an audience in London that his officers were "starting to see signs" that Britons were returning from Syria tasked with carrying out attacks back at home. Outlook There is a rising level of concern among security officials across Europe consulted by IHS Jane's about the threat emanating from Syria. The plots highlighted to date probably represent only the beginning of a threat that will evolve in various ways in the coming years. Although it is by no means the case that every individual returning from Syria will pose a domestic threat or will launch an attack, the high number of European jihadist fighters in Syria means that a threat of some sort is likely to emerge. Moreover, a protraction of Syria's civil war would mean more individuals would be drawn to the battlefield, therefore increasing the pool of potential jihadist recruits who could be a threat back at home. Indeed, the gravity of the situation was highlighted by a US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessment reported in The Wall Street Journal on 31 December, that drew on analysis of previous insurgencies, concluding that the civil war in Syria "could last another decade or more". The foreign fighter contingent in Syria is likely to match this timescale and is therefore also likely to be at the heart of Europe's militant threat for the next five years at least - a period of time that will only increase the longer the conflict continues. CASE STUDY: ABU HUTHAIFAAbu Huthaifa's profile appears on the Facebook page of the "Army of Mohammad Peace and Blessings be upon him - Abu Ubaidah al-muhajir" (which translates as the migrant - meaning that the fighter is or was outside his homeland). Abu Ubaidah al-muhajir appears to be the name of one of the units fighting in the conflict. IHS Jane's assesses that the Arabic-language page has an international jihadist tenor, rather than exclusively Syrian jihadist. Unusually, most of its updates are about members who have been killed in action rather than about major victories or battles, with a particular bias towards recording the deaths of Tunisian citizens. According to the Facebook account, the 'brother' and media activist from Luxembourg, Abu Page 7 of 8

8 Huthaifa, left his family back home. He entered Turkey to study, then moved to Syria to support the religion of Allah. He was not more than 18 years old. He was martyred in al-safira, Aleppo governorate. Copyright IHS Global Limited, 2014 For the full version and more content: IHS Jane's Military and Security Assessments Intelligence Centre IHS Jane's Military and Security Assessments Intelligence Centre delivers the world's most comprehensive and reliable coverage, expert analysis and detailed reference material concerning defence, geopolitics and state stability. Subscribe to Jane s Military and Security Intelligence Centre for access to the latest news, analysis and data For advertising solutions contact the IHS Jane s Advertising team Page 8 of 8

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