Earnings Insight Trading Buy WCI Communities, Inc (WCI) Gross Sales in the First Quarter Appear Strong Contents: Executive Summary Background 2 Q4 Earnings Notes 5 Deeds Recorded in Q1 6 Disclaimers 16 While we do not formally cover WCI Communities, Inc. or maintain an investment rating on the company, we believe that there may be a short term opportunity to buy the shares ahead of the first quarter earnings. We have spent over thirty hours in the past few weeks reading county property deeds, record by record, in an attempt to estimate Q1 gross revenues for WCI and how this will compare to expectations. The company guided that they would sell 400-450 traditional homes in 2008 and 275-300 tower units. Investment Highlights Q1 gross revenues appear to have been very strong We estimate total gross revenues of $251 mln in Q1 WCI earnings are likely to provide a positive surprise in Q1 Based on our efforts, it appears that they have closed on 142 traditional homes in Florida in Q1 for total revs of $79.63 mln, or $560,801 per home. The total gross revenues (pre-cancellations) for traditional home sales in Q1 should be $116 mln. It appears that WCI has closed 120 tower sales in Q1. Total revenues, precancellations, in the tower unit in Florida during Q1 appear to be a very healthy $126.77 mln, or $1.06 mln per unit. We estimate that total gross tower revenues will be $135.77 mln in Q1. Research Analyst: Nathan Weiss nweiss@uniteconomics.com (617) 763-4415
Background Based on county deed records, it appears that WCI has closed on 142 traditional homes in Florida during Q1, for total revenues of $79.63 mln, or $560,801 per home. It is important to note that these are estimated gross revenues. Last quarter they closed on 257 traditional homes for a total of $267 mln ($1.03 mln per home), 71% of which were in Florida. If the percentage of overall homes sold in Florida continues to be around 70% in the first quarter, WCI should have sold 199 gross units and the total gross revenues (pre-cancellations) for traditional home sales in Q1 should be $116 mln. Given management s prior full-year guidance of 400-475 traditional home sales in 2008, this figure should be a positive surprise to the market. It appears that WCI closed on 120 tower units in Q1 vs. management guidance of 275-300 tower units sales in 2008. Total gross revenues, pre-cancellations, in the towers unit during Q1 appear to be a very healthy $126.77 mln, or $1.06 mln per unit, based on Florida deed records. We estimate an additional $21 mln in revenues will be recognized for closings at the watermark. Net of adjustments to match deed data to reported sales data at One Bal Harbor, we expect total gross tower revenues to be $135.77 mln in Q1. The Watermark in NJ will be the vital to Q2 and full-year tower results. WCI states on their website that only 26 units remain. There are 206 total units in the project, 177 of which were listed as sold as-of last Q. If the 26 units notice is any indication, WCI has likely sold 3 more units during the first quarter and registered no cancellations. Closings at this property are likely just beginning, so the next few weeks will be key to see how many buyers default. We expect WCI to give some Watermark default guidance on their Q1 earnings call. Recent news articles in New Jersey show that closings are going well in similar properties (the area is called the Golden Coast ). If WCI can close 75%, or 133, of the sold units in Q2, this will bring in some $230 mln revs (vs. an estimated $186 mln COGS). These 133 tower units sold will make for a strong Q2 and WCI would have a total of 222 tower unit sales in the first half of 2008, even if no other towers are sold in Q2. This would compare favorably to full year targets. In reality, they should close some 50+ Oceanside B units, putting WCI into the bottom of their full-year tower unit sales guidance by the end of Q2. Our analysis of the Watermark is as follows: The Watermark http://www.wcicommunities.com/default.asp?pageid=home&siteid=79&vid=1000 Luxury tower on the Hudson river in North Bergen, on New Jersey s Gold Coast. 206 units, $233 mln total sales price ($1.13 mln avg/unit), 177 units sold (86%) with avg deposit of 20%. A HUD building, est completion Mar 08 Assuming 20% GM, COGS is $186.4 Central Case - $230.67 mln revs versus $186.4 mln COGS Assuming 75% of sold units close - $150.28 mln + $7.51 mln forfeited deposits (15% HUD cap) Remaining units sold at a 30% discount, or $57.90 mln Bear Case $188.63 mln versus $186.4 mln COGS Assuming 60% of sold units close - $120.23 mln + $12.02 mln forfeited deposits (15% HUD cap) Remaining units sold at a 50% discount, or $56.38 mln Page 2
Oceanside B, a waterfront tower project, is scheduled to start closing in April. As of mid April, we have not seen any deeds filed in Broward County for this project. The project may be challenging for WCI as it is located between Ft Lauderdale and Boca Raton where real estate prices have been falling sharply. WCI Bears will focus on this project and the cancellation rates. Interestingly, even with a cancellation rate of 40% and discounts of 30% relative to initial sales price on unsold units, we believe that the project can be profitable. Our analysis of Oceanside B is as follows: Oceanside B http://www.wcicommunities.com/default.asp?pageid=home&siteid=80&vid=1000 Waterfront project between Ft Lauderdale and Boca Raton an absolutely horrible location given the market declines in surrounding neighborhoods. 186 units, $238 mln total sales price ($1.28 mln avg/unit), 118 units sold (63%) with avg deposits of 18%. A HUD building, completion Apr 08 Assuming 20% GM, COGS is $190.4 mln Central Case $202.57 mln revs versus $190.4 mln COGS Assuming 60% of sold units close - $89.96 mln + $9.00 mln forfeited deposits (15% HUD cap) Remaining units sold at a 30% discount, $103.61 Bear Case - $165.10 mln revs versus $190.4 mln COGS Assuming 45% of sold units close - $67.47 mln + $12.37 mln in forfeited deposits (15% HUD cap) Remaining units sold at a 50% discount, $85.26 mln These two projects, using the central case for The Watermark and the Bear Case for Oceanside B, will generate combined revenues of $396 mln. The majority of the proceeds will be free to pay down debt as WCI is not replacing tower inventory with new projects. In addition, WCI owns amenity assets which are worth an estimated $350 mln in total and are likely to be sold in bits over the net few quarters. By the end of Q2, WCI should have the ability to pay down $400-$500 mln in debt in addition to holding $200 mln in cash on the balance sheet. It is reasonable to calculate that WCI can pay down some $700 mln in debt in 2008, with the repayments increasing to $900 mln if the strength in traditional home sales continues and the amenities assets are sold down aggressively. Given that there are only 42 mln shares outstanding and there is a lack of information as to which specific assets have been written down, attempting to forecast earnings with any precision would be a futile exercise. The share will likely be driven by the strength in sales each quarter and WCI s ability to pay down debt. Page 3
Notes from Q4 2007 Earnings Release From the last conf call and press release: WCI had 391 spec tower units at the end of 2007 and 477 spec traditional homes In Q4 WCI closed 187 traditional homes in Florida, 55 in the northeast and 15 in the mid-atlantic for total revs of $162.2 mln ($631,000/home) WCI closed 165 tower units in Q4 Management focused on closing the Watermark Towers in Q1 Projected high default rates at the Oceanside Management expects to close 400-450 traditional homes in 2008 Management expecting to close 275-300 tower units in 2008 (200-230 on contract, the rest out of inventories) Began closing One Bal Harbor in Q4 2007 a key property. Closed 157 of 185 Luxury condos in Q4, 48 of 115 Hotel Units Received approval from North Bergen in New Jersey to begin closing the Watermark Tower in early March, closings expected through Q2 Expecting approval to begin closing Oceanside at end of March Page 4
Sales Recorded by County Deeds in Q1 The following list is the result of a county by county deeds search for WCI Properties. Every available deed was read to determine that, to the best of our knowledge, the sale was registered in Q1 2008. The majority of the information available is from the state of Florida, thanks to a state-wide push to provide online access to legal documents. We expect Florida to represent some 70%-80% of gross Q1 revenues. HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY, FL 32 Traditional Homes, $11,319,616 Revenues Traditional Homes: Maplewood #4, $207,000 Westshore Yacht Club #6039, $473,164 Maplewood #22, $206,507 Westshore Yacht Club #6002, $580,000 Westshore Yacht Club #6030, $660,453 Sun City Center #271, $339,640 Maplewood #102, $213,500 Oakley Green #104, $244,495 Maplewood #91, $225,000 Toscana II #16, $350,000 Maplewood #1, $219,000 Westshore Yacht Club #6012, $370,000 Sun City Center #269, $358,000 Maplewood #98, $225,000 Corinth Condo #34, $225,000 Maplewood #90, $225,145 Westshore Yacht Club L8 B32, $730,000 Sun City Center #271, $243,000 Maplewood #28, $208,000 Westshore Yacht Club #6039-107, $354,000 Westshore Yacht Club #6102-107, $328,133 Westshore Yacht Club #6030-102, $355,000 Westshore Yacht Club #4815-105, $500,000 Page 5
Westshore Yacht Club #6039-108, $495,000 Westshore Yacht Club, #6002-104, $325,000 Westshore Yacht Club #6012-108, $415,000 L2 Sun City Center #269, $590,000 Oakley Green #99, $220,000 Maplewood #84, $223,000 Maplewood #72, $230,000 Westshore Yacht Club, #1203, $873709 Maplewood #75, $217,870 Collier County, FL 24 Traditional Homes, $8,416,686 Revenues, 10 Tower Units, $4,814,642 Revenues The Artesia Project in Sunrise is offering 20% discounts online Traditional Homes: Mansions at Artesia Naples Unit 1302 Building 13, $276,636 Village Homes E Artesia Naples Building 37, $232,006 Mansions at Artesia Naples, Unit 1702 Building 17, $238,000 Artesia Block G, Lot 11, $190,000 Mansions at Artesia Naples, Unit 1003 Building 10, $155,000 Village Homes E Artesia Naples Unit #39, $190,000 Artesia Block B, Lot 18, $278,000 Artesia Block E, Lot 14, $225,000 East Artesia Unit #46, $200,000 Artesia Block B, Lot 12, $274,072 Mansions at Artesia Naples, Unit 202 Building 2, $230,000 Mansions at Artesia Naples, Unit 403 Building 4, $212,679 Mansions at Artesia Napes, Unit 701 Building 7, $200,000 Mansions at Artesia Naples, Unit 803 Building 8, $221,398 Mansions at Artesia Naples, Unit 503 Building 5, $228,000 Serafina Tiburon Lot 40, $1,350,000 Artesia Block E, Lot 16 $435,000 Toscana Tuscany Reserve unit #806, $1,260,000 Page 6
Village Homes East Artesia, Building 38, $306,775 Village Homes East Artesia, Building 35, $250,000 Serafina Tiburon Lot #14, $1,462,902 Artesia Block B, Lot 9, $355,000 Village Homes East Artesia, Building 36, $277,860 Artesia Block E, Lot 9, $305,000 Towers: Lesina Hammock Bay Unit #304, $433,000 Lesina Hammock Bay, Unit 202, $625,000 Lesina Hammock Bay, Unit 605, $595,000 Lesina Hammock Bay Unit #303, $525,000 Lesina Hammock Bay, Unit #504, $475,000 Lesina Hammock Bay, Unit #606, $650,000 Lesina Hammock Bay, Unit #703, $575,000 Palm Beach County, FL 1 Tower Unit, $2,100,000 revenues One Singer Island, PH 602, $2,100,000 Broward County, FL 75 Traditional Homes, $54,198,214 revs Traditional Homes: Heron Bay 170-76, $345,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137, $764,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137, Lot 13, $850,000 Heron Bay 170-76 2C, $530,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2-137B Lot 5, $905,719 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182 Lot 5, $850,000 Heron Bay 173-181B Lot 23, $520,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 74, $985,000 Page 7
Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 7, $1,025,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 11, $680,000 Heron Bay 173-181B Lot 7, $799,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 3, $915,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 27, $1,235,388 Heron Bay 170-76B Site 3D, $325,000 Heron Bay 173-181B Lot 18, $470,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 66, $875,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2, 174-137B Lot 3, $725,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1, 172-182B Lot 26, $1,500,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 41, $1,235,145 Cypress Point III at Heron Bay U22-F, $320,420 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1,172-182B Lot 2, $1,225,000 Heron Bay 2 173-181B Lot 36, $399,000 Heron Bay 2 173-181B Lot 37, $671,100 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 2, $1,300,000 Cypress Pointe II at Heron Bay Unit 18A, $310,000 Cypress Pointe III at Heron Bay, Unit 39C, $300,000 Cypress Pointe IV at Huron Bay Unit 33-F, $350,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 69, $915,000 Heron Bay 170-76B Site 7A, $329,000 Cypress Pointe III at Heron Bay Unit 38-F, $300,000 Cypress Pointe IV at Heron Bay Unit 32-B, $295,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 50, $1,270,000 Heron Bay 2 173-181B Lot 17, $420,000 Cypress Pointe IV at Heron Bay Unit 34-F, $315,340 Heron Bay 170-76B Site 11D, $316,000 Heron Bay 2 173-181B Lot 9, $619,000 Cypress Pointe III at Heron Bay, Unit 21-A, $323,000 Heron Bay 2 173-181B Lot 8, $600,000 Heron Bay 170-76B Site 13C, $360,000 Cypress Pointe III at Huron Bay 22-D, $330,849 Page 8
Heron Bay 2 173-181B Lot 16, $578,581 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 43, $1,648,750 Cypress Pointe IV at Heron Bay 32-F, $310,000 Heron Bay 2 183-181B Lot 34, $555,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 1, $1,125,000 Heron Bay 170-76B Site 1B, $360,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 38, $1,800,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 2, $910,000 Heron Bay 170-76B Site 3c, $344,250 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 5, $905,719 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 5, $850,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 74, $985,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 7, $1,025,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 11, $680,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 27, $1,255,388 Heron Bay 2 173-181B Lot 18, $470,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 66, $875,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 3, $725,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 41, $1,235,145 Cypress Pointe III at Heron Bay 22-F, $320,420 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 2, $1,300,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 69, $915,000 Cypress Pointe IV at Heron Bay 32-B, $295,000 Heron Bay 170-76B Site 11D, $316,000 Cypress Pointe III at Heron Bay 21-A, $323,000 Heron Bay 2 173-181B Lot 16, $320,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 43, $1,648,750 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 38, $1,800,000 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #1 172-182B Lot 2, $910,000 Heron Bay 170-76B Site 3C, $344,250 Parkland Golf and Country Club Replat #2 174-137B Lot 51, $1,225,000 Cypress Pointe IV at Heron Bay 35C, $340,000 Page 9
Cypress Pointe IV at Heron Bay 35B, $340,000 Miami-Dade County - 76 Tower Units (38 Residential, 40 Hotel), $95,956,229 Total Revenues ($62,618,984 Tower, $33,337,244 Hotel) Towers: One Bal Harbor #2406, $1,307,142 One Bal Harbor #1905, $1,264,285 One Bal Harbor #2203, $1,414,285 One Bal Harbor #1701, $1,105,715 One Bal Harbor #1903, $1,457,142 One Bal Harbor #1602, $1,114,285 One Bal Harbor #2408, $5,035,714 One Bal Harbor #602, $972,857 One Bal Harbor #2507, $2,550,000 One Bal Harbor #1605, $1,178,571 One Bal Harbor #1609, $2,035,714 One Bal Harbor #1004, $1,564,285 One Bal Harbor #2105, $1,392,857 One Bal Harbor #2506, $1,350,000 One Bal Harbor #2205, $1,328,571 One Bal Harbor #1909, $2,121,428 One Bal Harbor #1401, $1,114,285 One Bal Harbor #202, $795,857 One Bal Harbor #2308, $4,500,000 One Bal Harbor #1704, $1,692,857 One Bal Harbor #1209, $1,837,714 One Bal Harbor #1208, $1,971,428 One Bal Harbor #703, $1,607,142 One Bal Harbor #901, $1,041,428 One Bal Harbor #2505, $1,414,285 Page 10
One Bal Harbor #909, $1,907,142 One Bal Harbor #803, $1,521,428 One Bal Harbor #1109, $1,885,714 One Bal Harbor #1207, $2,100,000 One Bal Harbor #2508, $4,457,142 One Bal Harbor #2405, $1,371,428 One Bal Harbor #1702, $1,157,142 One Bal Harbor #1505, $1,178,571 One Bal Harbor #2304, $1,521,428 One Bal Harbor #1805, $1,328,571 One Bal Harbor #1009, $1,928,571 One Bal Harbor #1201, $1,092,857 One Bal Harbor #316, $529,714 Hotel Condos: One Bal Harbor #1403, $1,350,000 One Bal Harbor #412, $544,285 One Bal Harbor #713, $891,429 One Bal Harbor #1611, $612,857 One Bal Harbor #911, $709,885 One Bal Harbor #517, $861,429 One Bal Harbor #516, $544,285 One Bal Harbor #917, $925,714 One Bal Harbor #216, $570,000 One Bal Harbor #1013, $1,007,142 One Bal Harbor #416, $544,285 One Bal Harbor #1016, $572,142 One Bal Harbor #1110, $951,428 One Bal Harbor #1614, $1,011,428 One Bal Harbor #513, $921,428 One Bal Harbor #1212, $587,285 One Bal Harbor #1213, $977,143 Page 11
One Bal Harbor #616, $544,285 One Bal Harbor #815, $535,715 One Bal Harbor #814, $878,571 One Bal Harbor #313, $1,341,514 One Bal Harbor #1210, $942,857 One Bal Harbor #1211, $557,143 One Bal Harbor #1413, $1,028,571 One Bal Harbor #414, $985,714 One Bal Harbor #617, $891,429 One Bal Harbor #812, $664,285 One Bal Harbor #614, $985,714 One Bal Harbor #610, $1,365,000 One Bal Harbor #1616, $595,714 One Bal Harbor #1617, $1,011,428 One Bal Harbor #1714, $1,011,428 One Bal Harbor #1513, $1,067,142 One Bal Harbor #916, $621,428 One Bal Harbor #912, $621,428 One Bal Harbor #611, $544,285 One Bal Harbor #913, $1,007,142 One Bal Harbor #1505, $1,178,571 One Bal Harbor #410, $1,050,000 One Bal Harbor #1505, $1,178,571 One Bal Harbor #717, $835,714 Duval County, FL 1 Traditional Home, $670,000 Revenues Traditional Homes: Costa Verano #701, $670,000 Flagler County, FL 1 Tower Unit, $1,800,00 Revenues Page 12
Towers: Le Jardin #602, $1,800,000 Lee County, FL 32 Tower Units, $22,097,279 Revenues Towers: Castella at the Colony #1201, $775,000 Florencia at the Colony #1704, $845,000 Florencia at the Colony #1006, $1,125,000 Florencia at the Colony #705, $645,000 Florencia at the Colony #1205, $770,000 Florencia at the Colony #206, $895,000 Florencia at the Colony #505, $595,000 Castella at the Colony #3401, $675,000 Florencia at the Colony #503, $470,000 Florencia at the Colony #1105, $745,000 Florencia at the Colony #904, $570,000 Florencia at the Colony #304, $420,000 Florencia at the Colony #303, $420,000 Castella at the Colony #1202, $575,000 Villa Trevi at the Colony #23709, $1,295,000 Castella at the Colony #1102, $575,000 Florencia at the Colony #302, $545,000 Florencia at the Colony #605, $620,000 Florencia at the Colony #802, $670,000 Florencia at the Colony #603, $495,000 Florencia at the Colony #2006, $1,245,000 Florencia at the Colony #604, $495,000 Florencia at the Colony #306, $945,000 Florencia at the Colony #702, $645,000 Page 13
Florencia at the Colony #804, $545,000 Florencia at the Colony #1504, $731,200 Florencia at the Colony #305, $635,000 Florencia at the Colony #1603, $720,000 Florencia at the Colony #1404, $670,000 Florencia at the Colony #1402, $725,000 Florencia at the Colony #1202, $746,900 Florencia at the Colony #1804, $764,179 Escambia County, FL 4 Traditional Homes, $2,240,000 Revenues Traditional Homes: Lost Key Marina unit 807, $550,000 Lost Key Marina unit 607, $580,000 Lost Key Golf unit 901, $490,000 Lost Key Golf unit 801, $620,000 Sarasota County, FL 6 Traditional Homes, $2,789,285 mln Revenues Traditional Homes: Venetian Golf Club Lot 69, $647,700 Venetian Golf Club 4A lot 36, $240,300 Venetian Golf Club 4A lot 1, $375,000 Venetian Golf Club 9D, $350,000 Venetian Golf Club 8C, $367,000 Venetian Golf Club 3E Lot 16, $809,285 Marion County, FL Ashley Farms Property, no sales reported Page 14
Manatee County, FL Tidewater Preserve, no sales reported Hudson County, NJ North Bergen Watermark, Working on finding access to the public records, very important project to WCI with 206 units with a sales price of $233 mln with closings in Q2 Fairfax County, VA Foster s Run Arlington County, VA The Club at Quincy. Currently closing Units??? Expecting update on Q1 conf call. Page 15
Disclaimers This report is published for informational purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used as, or considered to be, personal investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Before buying or selling any security, you should evaluate the investment yourself, including the suitability of any investment in light of your overall financial circumstances, and consider retaining your own professional investment advisor. While the author has no reason to believe that the information presented in this report is inaccurate, no representation as to its completeness or accuracy is made and no obligation is being undertaken to update such information should the author subsequently learn it was, or has become, inaccurate. The analyst at the company issuing this report, Unit Economics (a division of Weiss, Harrington and Associates, LLC) did not receive any compensation, directly or indirectly, related to the views expressed in this report, or in exchange for providing research relating to any company mentioned in this report. The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this research report may have visited certain operations of the subject company. The travel expenses of the analyst in connection with such visits were not paid or reimbursed by the subject company. Analysts and employees of Weiss, Harrington and Associates LLC may not accept any gift from any company covered by research, or under consideration of receiving research coverage, by Unit Economics or Weiss, Harrington and Associates, LLC in excess of $100. Neither Unit Economics nor Weiss, Harrington and Associates, LLC provides investment banking services or receives revenues for investment banking services. Employees of Unit Economics and Weiss, Harrington and Associates, LLC, including the author of this report, are allowed to take positions in the companies that they and the firm maintain recommendations on. Our employees may trade a stock which has an active investment recommendation by Unit Economics and/or Weiss, Harrington and Associates, LLC at any time without notice to clients or those receiving our research, which may include closing security positions that are still actively recommended to our clients and those receiving our research. In some cases, our employees may have a position in a security prior to it being initiated in a research report. The analyst(s) responsible for writing and/or reviewing this research report receive(s) compensation relating to the overall profitability of Unit Economics and Weiss, Harrington and Associates, LLC which may be impacted by, among other factors, the profitability of our clients in the ideas presented. Page 16