Values, Trends, and the Arab Spring Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co-PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong We thank the Office of Naval Research, the National Science Foundation, & the Ford Foundation for their support.
Overview Between the decline of the liberal age in 1940s-50s and the Arab Spring, the Arab world experienced the upsurge of two major cultural movements: Pan-Arab nationalism Islamic fundamentalism. The Arab Spring is a departure from extremism: Non-ideological movements for democracy & economic prosperity No Arab political unity & decline in the political significance of the army The Internet as an ideologically-neutral organizing tool A shift in people s political and cultural values Who participated in the Arab Spring: The case of Egypt?
Methodology Survey data available Collected in face-to-face interviews using paper-and-pencil instruments Nationally representative samples using PPS Sample size Dates collected Oversampling Response rate Egypt 3,496 June-Aug 2011 Coptic Christians 93% Egypt 1,677 Jan 2012 None Iraq 3,000 Jan-Feb 2011 None 61% Lebanon 3,034 March-July 2011 Druze 88% Saudi Arabia 2,005 Jan-Feb 2011 Shi a Muslims 73% Survey data pending Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey
Sample dispositions Methodology Egypt (2011) Egypt (2012 Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia Male 49% 52% 53% 59% University education 15% 15% 13% 28% 15% Average age 38 40 36 35 34 Religion: Not asked Sunni* 23% 75% Shi a* 31% 33% 25% Druze 6% Muslim (no sect spec) 86% 29% Christian 14% 0.4% 26% *Muslim sect was not reported in Saudi Arabia but 25% of respondents were from a predominantly Shi a city, and 75% were from predominantly Sunni cities
People s Explanations for the Arab Spring: Movements for democracy & economic prosperity % reporting main reaso on for the Arab Spring 7 59% 51% Freedom & democracy 25% 15% Economic equality & prosperity 9% Islamic government 9% 9% 2% 2% 3% Counter Western influence Part of a Western conspiracy 4% Arab unity Egypt Lebanon
% Relying A great deal or Somewhat on Satellite TV, Internet, or Mobile as Sources of Information 8 7 69% 74% 62% 49% 49% 28% 14% 14% Egypt Iraq Saudi Arabia Satellite TV Internet Mobile
Trends in Values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis National Identity Which one of the following best describes you? 1. I am an Egyptian, Iraqi, Saudi, above all 2. I am a Muslim, above all 3. I am an Arab, above all 4. I am a Kurd, above all 5. Other
National Identity: Egyptian Muslims 9 8 7 8% 81% 56% 48% 41% 1% 2% Above all, I am Egyptian Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab 2001 2011 2012 3%
National Identity: 7 56% Iraq 59% 63% 57% 23% 32% Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Mar.-2007 Jul.-2007 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011 % Above all, I am Iraqi
10 9 8 7 17% National Identity: Saudi Arabia 75% 46% 44% Above all, I am Saudi Above all, I am Muslim Above all, I am Arab 2003 2011 9% 8%
Trends in Values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis Religion & Politics 1.Wishes of the people vs. Shari'a law 2.Characteristics of politicians 3.Secular politics 4.Forms of government
Attitudes toward Secular Politics: People s Wishes Versus the Shari a (Forced choice, 2011) 10 9 8 7 28% 18% 12% 56% A good govt implements only the law of the shari'a 72% 82% 88% 44% A good govt makes laws according to people's wishes Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia
10 9 8 7 Attitudes toward Secular Politics Which is better in a politician? (Forced choice, 2011) 22% 19% 14% Strong religious beliefs 43% 78% 81% 86% 58% Strong commitment to national interests Egypt Iraq Lebanon Saudi Arabia
Egyptian Muslims: People s Wishes Versus the Shari a 7 48% 62% 31% A good government implements only the shari'a law (% strongly agree) 2000 2011 A good government makes laws according to the people's wishes (% strongly agree)
Egyptian Muslims: Attitudes toward secular politics % Strongly agree/agree 10 9 91% 93% 8 7 49% 57% 2011 2012 Egypt would be better if religion and politics were separated Democracy may have problems but it's better than other forms of govt
Iraq: Attitudes toward secular politics % Strongly agree/agree that Iraq would be a better place if religion and politics are separated 8 7 53% 63% 69% 76% 69% Dec.-2004 Apr.-2006 Oct.-2006 Dec.-2008 Jan.-2011
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for the Shari a & in trust of religious institutions 9 8 7 69% 31% Shari'a law very important 2003 2011 84% 46% Trusting religious institutions a great deal
Egyptian Muslims: Democracy vs. Strong head of gov t (% Very good) 9 8 7 84% 79% 68% 9% 2% 5% Democratic political system Strong head of government 2001 2008 2011
7 Iraq: % Strongly agree with different forms of government 59% 55% 53% 22% 15% 11% 11% 12% 5% 6% 7% Democracy Islamic government Strong head of government 2004 Apr-06 2011 Army rule
Saudi Arabia: Democracy as the best form of government (% Strongly agree/agree) 8 7 71% 58% 2003 2011
Trends in Values among Egyptians, Iraqis, and Saudis Attitudes toward gender equality 1. A wife must always obey her husband. 2. Men make better political leaders than women do. 3. University education is more important for boys than it is for girls.
Egyptian Muslims: Increase in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree) 8 7 68% 73% 55% 47% 16% 21% 25% Wife must always obey her husband Men make better political leaders 2000 2011 2012 University education is more important for boys
Iraq: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree) 8 7 64% 63% 71% 69% 42% 33% 29% 25% 8% A wife should always obey her husband Men make better political leaders University education is more important for boys 2004 2006 2011
Saudi Arabia: Decline in support for gender inequality (% Strongly agree) 7 53% 61% 44% 44% Men make better political leaders 2003 2011 A wife must always obey her husband
Participation in Demonstrations against the Mubarak Regime among Egyptian Muslims in 2011
Egyptian Muslims: Measure of Participation On the scale of 1 to 10, with 1 indicating minimum to none participation and 10 the utmost participation, where do you put the extent of your participation on this scale? Participation % Participating 1 (Minimum to none) 60.1% 2 6.4% 3 5.5% 4 5.3% 5 4.9% 6 4.3% 7 5.5% 8 4.6% 9 1.7% 10 (Utmost) 1.9% N 3005 Mean (standard deviation) 2.7 (2.56)
Egyptian Muslims: Correlates of participation Correlation coefficients Demographics Male.152 ** Unmarried.115 ** Formative years under Mubarak.089 ** Employed.138 ** SES.212 ** Urbanarea.162 ** Organizational membership factor Religious/Political/Charitable membership.008 Attitudes toward government Trust in government -.110 ** Rating of government -.057 ** Sources of information Radio.066 ** Domestic TV.027 Foreign satellite TV.058 ** Newspaper.212 ** Internet.182 ** Mobile.070 ** ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Egyptian Muslims: Correlations of participation (continued) Correlation coefficients continued Gender segregation Gender mixing doesn t lead to moral decay.039 Liberalism factor Gender equality/socialindividualism/secular politics.140 ** Religiosity Mosque/Church attendance.114 ** Frequency of prayer -.001 Identify as religious person -.049 * Importance of God in life -.042 Morality factor Stealing/Violence/Tellinglies.244 ** Social-Psychological issues Perceived control.103 ** Insecurity.112 ** Free will.205 ** Attitudes toward the West Cultural invasion by the West.006 Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors.152 ** ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation OLS Regression Demographics Male.092** Unmarried.049* Formative years under Mubarak.052* Employed.026 SES.054* Urban area.095** Organizational membership factor Religious/Political/Charitable membership -.018 Attitudes toward government Trust in government -.035 Rating of government -.016 Sources of information Radio.035 Domestic TV.018 Foreign satellite TV -.011 Newspaper.122** Internet/Mobile.032 ** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed);* Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Egyptian Muslims: Predictors of participation (continued) OLS Regression continued Gender segregation Gender mixing doesn t lead to moral decay.041* Liberalism factor Gender equality/social individualism/secular politics.058** Religiosity Mosque/Church attendance.016 Frequency of prayer.008 Identify as religious person.013 Importance of God in life -.035 Morality factor Stealing/Violence/Telling lies.219** Social-Psychological issues Perceived control.092** Insecurity.111** Free will.143** Attitudes toward the West Cultural invasion by the West -.016 Factor of British/Americans/French as neighbors.065** Adjusted R 2.210 ** Regression coefficient is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed);* Significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)
Summary 1. Increase in national identity 2. Decline in support for the shari a 3. Increase in gender equality (except in Egypt) 4. Predictors of participation in the Arab Spring: (1) Male, single, formative years under
Thank you! Mansoor Moaddel (PI) Arland Thornton (Co-PI) Stuart Karabenick Linda Young-DeMarco Julie de Jong