Dmand and tickt pric lasticity analysis in th southrn railway lin of th Islamic Rpublic of Iran H. Ghahramani & B. Amini ¹School of Railway Enginring, Iran Univrsity of Scinc and Tchnology, Iran Dpartmnt of Civil Enginring, Intrnational Univrsity of Imam Khomini, Iran Abstract Th papr is a rport of th rsarch mad to modl th passngr dmand from Thran to th citis in th Southrn Railway lin of Iran, and from Ahwaz at th South to th sam citis including Thran. Th final accptabl modl was th xponntial form with indpndnt variabls as th population and incom lvl at th origin citis, th tickt pric and th indx of rcration and ducation in th dstination citis. Th calibratd modls show that th origin population and th rcration-ducational indx of th dstination ar th first and scond most ffctiv paramtrs. Th modl is to b usd by th Iran Passngr Trains Company (RAJA), to prdict th futur passngr dmand and its train schduling, and also its tickt pric stratgis. Suggstions ar proposd to th company according to th lasticitis obtaind. Kywords: passngr trains, railway dmand modl, railway tickt pric, rcration-ducation indx. Introduction Passngr trips in th I. R. of Iran, xcpt for on train pr day in Thran- Mashad Lin opratd by th Mostazafan Foundation (calld th Eastrn_Bonyad Train) as a privat company, is carrid out by th Iran Passngr Trains Company (RAJA), which is a govrnmnt company supportd by th I. R. of Iran Railways, RAI. Prdiction of futur dmand and accordingly, Computrs in Railways IX, J. Allan, C. A. Brbbia, R. J. Hill, G. Sciutto & S. Son (Editors) 00 WIT Prss, www.witprss.com, ISBN -853-75-9
56 Computrs in Railways IX train schduling and passngr wagon nds ar don basd on xprinc and traditional mthods in th company. Th tickt prics, which is incrasd annually basd on high inflation rats, is anothr paramtr affcting th dmand and rvnu of th company, and has bn th caus of many controvrsis in rcnt yars. Th Southrn Lin conncts Thran to Ahwaz, which is th capital city of th oil rich and industrial Provinc of Khozstan in th South, and is th oldst and most dmandd lin of th RAI. This lin conncts svral othr provincs and stops at th important citis of Qum, Arak, Azna, Andimshk, and th Port of Khoramshahr, kilomtrs south of Ahwaz. Thus th passngr dmand and tickt prics in this lin smd to b mor critical and chosn to b modld. Trip purposs and ffctiv paramtrs Bcaus of its rlativly low spd compard to th othr mods of intrcity travl in Iran, such as airplan and, in som cass, bus, only low-lvl businss and stat mploys assignmnt trips ar xpctd to b don by train, bsids th othr typs of intrcity trips such as rcrational and ducational (RE), trips. In ordr to dtrmin th main purposs of trips in this lin, a qustionr was prpard and distributd to th passngrs in Thran and Ahwaz Stations. Th rsult of this survy (Tabl ) shows that th main trip purposs ar rcration and ducation; and th businss and govrnmntal assignmnt trips ar rathr low. Th rason bhind this is that most of ths typs of trips ar usually don by airplan and only a low prcntag of it, at th mdium and low lvl, is don by train. Th low prcntag of mdical trips is also justifiabl bcaus train is not a good mod for th typ of patints sking bttr doctors and hospitals in larg citis, lik Thran and Ahwaz. Accordingly th paramtrs of population and incom lvl in th origin city, tickt pric and rcration-ducation (RE) indx of th dstination city wr chosn as th indpndnt variabls of th modl. Tabl : Main trip purposs prcntags. Trip purpos Rcration Education Businss Statassign Thran-Ahwaz. 7.6 6.5 8.3 Ahwaz-Thran 5.7 5.8 8.0 5.5 Mdica l 3.5 5.0 3 Data gathring Trip statistics and tickt prics information ar obtaind from th RAJA passngr Trains Company and th RAI statistical yar books [, ]. Th availabl statistics of four yars (Iranian yar bgins on March ), namly from 998 to 00 (377 to 380, Iranian Calndar), wr usd to calibrat th modls. Population of citis and incom lvls wr xtractd from th Iranian Cntr for Statistics publications [3, ]. Th RE indx is calculatd for all major Computrs in Railways IX, J. Allan, C. A. Brbbia, R. J. Hill, G. Sciutto & S. Son (Editors) 00 WIT Prss, www.witprss.com, ISBN -853-75-9
Computrs in Railways IX 57 citis by th Cntral Bank of th Islamic Rpublic of Iran, basd on th valu of 00 for th yar of 997 (376), and is publishd in a statistical yar book [5]. Th information is givn in Tabl. Tabl : Th rcration-ducation indx of th citis. Yar 998 999 000 00 00 Thran Qum Arak Azna Dorud Andim. Ahwaz Khora. 66 39 80 0 0 5 60 77 95 76 9 3 77 97 9 60 78 98 9 7 66 87 9 7 66 87 6 65 86 0 Structur and calibration of th modls First a st of linar rgrssion modls wr calibratd with th data obtaind for th dpndd variabl and th four spcifid indpndnt variabls, but low corrlation factor (R ), wr found. Th xponntial form was chosn in th scond trial as: 3 3 y = αx x x x () whr: x = Population in th origin city, x = Incom lvl in th origin city, x3 = Tickt pric, x = RE indx, α and i = Constants Tabl 3: Th dmand modl constants, dstination Thran. Dstinat. Qum Arak Azna Dorood Andim. Ahwaz Khoram Dist. kms 80 30 9 67 675 86 937 α.5 3.6 56.7 9.5 3.6 3.53 5.9 3 3. 9.63 0.9 7.06.8 56. 0.5 0.3 0.05 0.0 0.69 0.5 0.57 0.55 0.6.86 0.33 0.5 0.98 0.0 0.89..73 0.3 0.539.809.939 R sq S 0.9985 0.9985 0.9865 0.9895 0.9900 0.99 0.9998 0.0650 0.0358 0.008 0.00 0.000 0.033 0.0038 Computrs in Railways IX, J. Allan, C. A. Brbbia, R. J. Hill, G. Sciutto & S. Son (Editors) 00 WIT Prss, www.witprss.com, ISBN -853-75-9
58 Computrs in Railways IX Th gathrd data wr usd to calibrat two sts of modls for Thran and Ahwaz as th origin citis. Th rsults of this calibration procss, togthr with th corrlation factor, R sq and th standard rror, S can b found in tabls 3 and. Tabl : Dstinat. Dist. kms Thran 86 Qum 636 Arak 96 Azna 397 Dorood 39 Andim. Khoram. 5 Discussions Th dmand modl constants, dstination Ahwaz. α 8.86 5.98 6.79 3.6 5.69 3.9 35. 3 58.7 9.95 8.86 6.5 8..56.39 0.85 0.303 0.93 0.083 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.365 0.99 0.70.0.650.58.85 3.3.6.903 0.336 0.59 0.97.5 R sq 0.998 0.975 0.995 0.977 0.998 0.98 0.978 S 0.003 0.035 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.063 0.38 Notifying th strngth of th modls in prdicting th futur dmand, as th paramtr s shows, and th constants i as th lasticitis of dmand with rspct to th rlatd variabls, th following conclusions may b rachd: - Th lasticity of dmand with rspct to th incom lvls much lowr than population both in trips from Thran and Ahwaz ( and in tabls 3 and ). That is du to low tickt prics of train rlativ to th othr mods of intrcity transportation systms, lik airplan or bus in Iran. Thrfor it is mor dmandd by th mdium to low incom classs. - For Thran-Arak and Thran-Khoramshahr th lasticity of dmand with rspct to tickt pric is rlativly high compard to othr citis. Th rason is that ths two citis ar th only ons with airports (bsids Thran and Ahwaz), thrfor incrasing th tickt pric will divrt th passngrs to th air and bus systms, and th RAJA Company should not incras th pric of tickts for ths routs. 3- Th lasticity of dmand with rspct to th pric of tickt from Ahwaz to Khoramshahr is rathr high (-.85), bcaus of a short distanc ( kms), and th availability of othr ground mods, lik bus srvics and far-passngr cars and thir rlativly lowr travl tim, a high lvl of comptition xists. So RAJA should b cautious in incrasing th tickt pric in this rout. - Th RE indx, considrd as th attraction of th dstination, is of much importanc, bcaus th lasticity shows rlativly highr valus for th citis of Qum, Arak, Ahwaz and Khoramshahr (from Thran), as in Computrs in Railways IX, J. Allan, C. A. Brbbia, R. J. Hill, G. Sciutto & S. Son (Editors) 00 WIT Prss, www.witprss.com, ISBN -853-75-9
Computrs in Railways IX 59 tabl 3, and that is du to th xisting highr ducation cntrs in ths citis and th trips mad by th studnts. Khoramshahr as a port in th South has had his own spcial rcrational attraction for yars. 5- Th lasticity of dmand with rspct to th RE indx of th abov mntiond citis, and also for Thran, is rlativly high and mor than (for Thran is 3.3). This shows th high dmand from th univrsity studnts for trips to ths citis and spcially Thran with many highr ducation institutions. 6 Conclusions In this rsarch work two sts of dirct dmand modls wr calibratd for th prsonal trips in th Southrn Lin of th Islamic Rpublic of Iran Railways (RAI), which is carrid out by th RAJA Passngr Trains Company. Th modls ar to b usd for th prdiction of dmands, and, accordingly, schdul trains to answr th xpctd dmand. Th modls wr also usd to analyz th lasticitis of dmand with rspct to tickt prics, and suggstions wr givn to th RAJA Company to adjust its tickt pric changing stratgy. Rfrncs [] Islamic Rpublic of Iran, Rail Transportation Statistics Yar Book (377 to 38), (in Prsian). [] RAJA Passngr Trains Company, Statistics Yar Book, (378 to 38), (in Prsian). [3] Iran Cntr for Statistics, Dtaild Rsults of Cnsus on City Familis Expnss and Incoms, 38 (in Prsian). [] Iran Cntr for Statistics, Statistical Yar Books, (in Prsian). [5] Th Cntral Bank of th Islamic Rpublic of Iran, Statistical Yar Books (378 to 38), (in Prsian). [6] Usr's Manual, Data Analysis Softwar. Computrs in Railways IX, J. Allan, C. A. Brbbia, R. J. Hill, G. Sciutto & S. Son (Editors) 00 WIT Prss, www.witprss.com, ISBN -853-75-9