OSMO-R, -2014 - a.bundel@gmail.com muravev@mecom.ru Gdaly.Rivin@mecom.ru, inna@mecom.ru ( ) -2014. ( ).... (neighborhood verification). 37

. COSMO-Ru1 1 1-7 2 2.. 2012/2013. COSMO-Ru 3 NMM. ERS S ( ERification System nified Survey) - COSMO.,. +5 C +15 C. HARMONIE ~1200 1400. 1400 HARMONIE. FROST-2014 (Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed). COSMO-Ru1 4 ASTER 30. 38

. 7. -.. -2014 2014 ). 1 (ME) - (RMSE) COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 (02 23 2014 ) COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2. -. - 30. 2 (. 1 ) COSMO-Ru1. RMSE COSMO-Ru1. COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 (. 1 ). (.. ). -.... - -.. 2 39

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10 /3 2014. : 30-0 4. 15 ( COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 ). COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 ( 15 ). - (neighborhood verification ( ) - -..) 5 7. ERS S (performance diagrams) (1 ) ( - ) ( ). :.. 3 COSMO-Ru2 (. 3 ) COSMO-Ru1 (. 3 ). 95 - -.. 15. 24 COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 30.... 4 ME RMSE 2 COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 600 1000 1500 2000 00.. 43

) ). 3. COSMO-Ru2 ) COSMO-Ru1 ) 3-, 0,01 3 2014.. 95 -. 00. 44

) 600 6) 1000 45

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, 600 37107- RASNA A OL ANA --- LAT:43.683 LON:40.2 HEI HT:567 39149- ordon Laura (Roshydromet) --- LAT:43.7 LON:40.265 HEI HT:570 39159-Sledge-700 ---LAT:43.669 LON:40.289 HEI HT:701 39557-Nordic-675 ---LAT:43.678 LON:40.237 HEI HT:676 39558-Nordic-615 ---LAT:43.678 LON:40.234 HEI HT:615 39560-S i ump-650 ---LAT:43.677 LON:40.24 HEI HT:628 1000 39153-Snowboard-1025 (IRAM) --- LAT:43.656 LON:40.328 HEI HT:1027 39154-Freestyle-1080 (IRAM) --- LAT:43.653 LON:40.321 HEI HT:1077 39165-R H -7 (Finish) ---LAT:43.645 LON:40.331 HEI HT:980 39562-MCarousel-1000 ---LAT:43.668 LON:40.257 HEI HT:978 1500 39111-R H -4 ---LAT:43.639 LON:40.313 HEI HT:1580 39136-Alpica-Service-1500(Roshydromet)--- LAT:43.648 LON:40.293 HEI HT:1465 39161- iathlon-1500 ---LAT:43.693 LON:40.335 HEI HT:1497 39162- iathlon Stadium ---LAT:43.692 LON:40.327 HEI HT:1471 39163-S i Stadium ---LAT:43.695 LON:40.329 HEI HT:1483 39164- iathlon-1400 ---LAT:43.693 LON:40.319 HEI HT:1407 39561-MCarousel-1500 ---LAT:43.654 LON:40.251 HEI HT:1434 2000 39108-R H 2 ---LAT:43.63 LON:40.307 HEI HT:2137 39109-R H -3 ---LAT:43.636 LON:40.309 HEI HT:2043 39146-R H -8 ---LAT:43.635 LON:40.308 HEI HT:1740 ( ). 1500 -. 1500 - COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2. 47

COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2. ERS S.. -.. 5 2 COSMO-Ru1 1200 ( <25 ) ( >75 ). 1200 -.. 5 -... 5. 2 COSMO-Ru1, 1200, <25, ) >75, ). 00. 48

, EDI 1 2-2014.. 2011/2012. COSMO-Ru2 2012/2013.. -... 2012/2013. - MET 8. R. 2008 (extreme dependency score (EDS) stable extreme dependency score (SEDS) extremal dependency index (EDI) and symmetric extremal dependency index (SEDI)) 6 EDS SEDS EDS. 9 EDI. 9. 49

. 2. -. EDI.. 6 EDI - ( ) COSMO-Ru2 2 2 NMM 1 ( COSMO). :. -. EDI -.. 6 : 2012/2013. COSMO-Ru2 NMM NMM. 1 / 10 2 / 5. 2.. - COSMO- Ru2 EDI COSMO-Ru2-9 COSMO-Ru2 NMM. -7 10-9 5. 50

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COSMO-Ru2. 1. -2014. - -.. 2. COSMO-Ru1 1 - -. COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 RMSE ME ME.. 3. - COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 2014.: 30-0 4. 15. COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 -. 52

-. 4. (600 1000 1500 2000 ) ( ). 1500. 5. EDI ( ). EDI 2012 2013. : COSMO-Ru2 NMM NMM. - COSMO-Ru2 EDI COSMO-Ru2-9 COSMO-Ru2 NMM. COSMO-Ru2. 1 2014.. I. COSMO //. 2013. 11.. 5 21. 2. 2014.. II. COSMO //. 2013. 12. 5 22. 3. 53

COSMO-Ru / : 13 16 2013..: 2014. 4. COSMO-Ru1: //. 2014.. 352... 5. Fuzzy verification of high resolution gridded forecasts: review and proposed framewor // Meteor. Appl. 2008. ol. 15.. 51 64. doi:10.1002/met.25. 6. D.B. Extremal Dependence Indices: improved verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary events // Wea. Forecasting. 2011. ol. 26.. 699 713. 7. erifying Forecasts Spatially // ull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2010. ol. 91.. 1365 1373. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010 AMS2819.1. 8. MET: Model Evaluation Tools ersion 4.0 (METv4.0). ser s uide 4.0.1. / Developmental Testbed Center 2012 oulder Colorado SA (www.dtcenter.org/met/users) 9. Suggested methods for the verification of precipitation forecasts against high resolution limited area observations / W F R Second Draft November 2013. 54