Understanding the Arab Spring : Public Opinion in the Arab World Craig Charney Presentation to Center for Strategic and International Studies Washington, DC January 26, 2012
Sources National Opinion Polls This presentation is based on scientific, national, randomly-sampled opinion surveys taken in Arabic by trained local interviewers and polling groups. Charney Research Polls: March 2011 Egypt (615 respondents) August 2010 Lebanon (1000 respondents), Palestine (1019 respondents) July 2009 Palestine (2402 respondents) July 2008 Lebanon (1800 respondents) Oct 2008 Yemen (1304 respondents), Saudi Arabia (1199 respondents), Algeria (1199 respondents), Egypt (1205 respondents) Other Polls: Spring 2011 Gallup World Poll: Syria, Egypt, Yemen, Palestine, Tunisia, Algeria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE (1000 respondents each) April 2011 Pew Research Center: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon (1000 respondents each) October 2010 Gallup World Poll: Qatar (1000 respondents), UAE (1000 respondents), Kuwait (1000 respondents), Lebanon (1000 respondents) April 2010 Gallup World Poll: Bahrain (1000 respondents), Jordan (1000 respondents), Syria (1000 respondents), Tunisia (2000 respondents) March 2010 Gallup World Poll: Algeria (1000 respondents), Egypt (2000 respondents), Saudi Arabia (1000 respondents), Libya (1000 respondents), Morocco (1000 respondents) Feb 2010 Gallup World Poll: Palestine (1000 respondents), Yemen (1000 respondents) Feb 2010 Gallup World Poll: Palestine (1000 respondents), Yemen (1000 respondents) July 2010 Shibley Telhami, University of Maryland: Egypt (818 respondents), Saudi Arabia (812 respondents), UAE (512 respondents), Morocco (816 respondents), Lebanon (509 respondents), Jordan (509 respondents) 2010 Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Palestine (1100 respondents), Jordan (1000 respondents), Egypt (1000 respondents), Lebanon (1000 respondents) 2009 Pew Global Attitudes Survey: Palestine (1100 respondents), Egypt (1000 respondents) August 2009 IRI Poll: Jordan (1000 respondents) August 2009 Greenberg Poll: Egypt (800 respondents) Jordan (1000 respondents ) Fall 2006 Arab Barometer Survey: Morocco (1277 respondents), Kuwait (750 respondents) Spring 2006 Arab Barometer Survey: Palestine (1270 respondents), Jordan (1142 respondents) 2000: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database 2
Today s Presentation Distinguishing Factors: Economic and Political Common Elements: Political and Economic New Media Post-Revolutionary Conditions Post-Revolutionary Elections Religious Institutions and Identity International Issues 3
Distinguishing Factors Upheavals occurred where the fewest were thriving; stability prevailed where the most were. Percent thriving Group 1: Major Upheaval Country Thriving % Group 2: Spring 2011 Instability Country Thriving % Country Group 3: Stable Thriving % Syria 3% Morocco 9% Kuwait 45% Egypt 6% Algeria 18% Qatar 48% Bahrain 7% Lebanon 18% Saudi Arabia Yemen 11% Jordan 28% UAE 58% Libya 14% Tunisia 16% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average 18% Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010, 2011 4
Distinguishing Factors The countries in upheaval saw significant drops in the proportions of citizens thriving in the past three years, unlike the rest. Group 1 Countries Average thriving: 2009*-2011 Country % Thriving (2009) % Thriving (2010) % Thriving (2011) Syria 21% 3% Egypt 25%* 11% 6% Yemen 17% 12% 11% Libya 24% 14% N/A 25% 15% 18% Tunisia 25%* 14% 16% 8% Bahrain 27% 7% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average *Egypt and Tunisia from 2007-2008 more tracking data available 2009 2010 2011 Gallup World Poll 2007-2011 5
Distinguishing Factors: Economic The countries most dissatisfied with job creation tended to be the least stable (Groups 1 and 2). In your country, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the efforts to increase the number of quality jobs? (Satisfied only) 7 66% 34% 35% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010 6
Distinguishing Factors: Economic Countries with more poverty had more unrest. Have there been times in the last 12 months when you did not have enough money to buy the food that you or your family needed? (Yes only) 29% 18% 12% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010-2011 7
8 7 Distinguishing Factors: Economic Dissatisfaction with the local economy was also closely linked to instability. Right now, do you think the economic conditions in the city or area in which you live, as a whole, are getting better or worse? (Better only) 75% 43% 25% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010-2011 8
Distinguishing Factors: Political Regimes fell in countries where people felt the most voiceless. Have you voiced your opinion to a public official (in the last month)? (Yes only) 25% 21% 15% 13% 5% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010 9
Perceptions of widespread corruption and reported problems were more common in Groups 1 and 2 the less stable countries. 7 Is corruption widespread throughout the government in your country? (Yes only) 61% 61% 7 Distinguishing Factors: Political Paid bribe to official for service in past year (Yes only) 44% 48% 21% 21% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010-2011 10
Distinguishing Factors: Political Lack of confidence in the rule of law was linked to instability. In your country do you have confidence in the judicial system and the courts? (Yes only) 9 8 8 7 55% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010 11
Distinguishing Factors: Political Countries where elections were seen as rigged also were less stable. In your country do you have confidence in the honesty of elections? (Yes only) 58% 48% 34% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010 12
Distinguishing Factors: Political Countries where mistrust of domestic media was higher (Groups 1 and 2) were more unstable. In your country do you have confidence in the quality and integrity of the media? (Yes only) 8 7 67% 47% 36% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010 13
There is a strong desire for democracy across the region. Percent preferring a democratic system of government Common Elements: Political 9 8 7 83% 79% 77% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average CR 2008, Arab Barometer 2006 14
Majorities throughout the Arab world believe today that democracy is compatible with Islam. 8 7 79% Democracy compatible with Islam (Yes only) 65% Common Elements: Political 73% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Pew 2007, 2009, 2010; CR 2008, Arab Barometer 2006 15
Common Elements: Political The majority of citizens said political change should be peaceful in Arab countries (except Libya). Some people believe that groups that are oppressed and are suffering from injustice can improve their situation by peaceful means ALONE. Others do not believe that peaceful means ALONE will work to improve the situation for such oppressed groups. What do you believe? (Believe peaceful means ALONE only) 7 55% 54% Group 1 Average* Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010 *Libya: 34% 16
A consensus across the region favors foreign trade and globalization. Percent saying greater foreign trade is good Common Elements: Economic 9 8 68% 85% 76% 7 Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Pew 2010, 2009; CR 2008 17
New Media Internet access is lower in the less stable countries while it is nearly universal in the most stable (and developed). Does your home have internet access? (Yes only) 9 81% 8 7 28% 34% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010 18
New Media Mobile phones have become almost ubiquitous in the Arab world, where very few had them a decade ago. Does your home have a cellular phone? (Yes only) 10 9 8 7 86% 89% 99% 7% 13% 23% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average 2000 2011 Gallup World Poll 2010, ICT 2000 19
New Media The key news medium in the region is television, though internet and print matter in some countries. What is your primary source for international news? 10 9 5% 9% 3% 1% 1% 14% 12% 12% 3% 9% 8 7 12% 15% 19% 9% 15% 86% 95% 64% 57% 88% Egypt Morocco Jordan Lebanon UAE Saudi Arabia Television Internet Newspapers/magazines Radio Telhami 2010 20
New Media Al Jazeera leads as an international news source, but MBC, Al Arabiya, and Egyptian TV also have large audiences. When you watch international news, which of the following networks do you watch most often? 10 9 8 7 4% 9% 1% 14% 54% 12% 6% 5% 21% 3% 65% 16% 1% 14% 9% 41% 31% 24% 15% Egypt Morocco Jordan Lebanon UAE Saudi Arabia Al Jazeera Egyptian network MBC Al Arabiya Telhami 2010 21
Post-Revolutionary Conditions There was enormous hope and optimism in Egypt and Tunisia following the revolutions in those countries. Generally speaking, do you think things in [Egypt/Tunisia] are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of the country? (Egypt) How do you feel about the future? (Tunisia) 10 10 9 8 82% 79% 9 8 79% 7 61% 7 57% 27% 14% 27% 16% 15% 6% Egypt 2008 Egypt March 2011 Tunisia April 2011 Egypt March 2011 Tunisia April 2011 Right direction CR 2011, 2008; Pew 2011, EMRHOD 2011 Wrong direction Optimistic Pessimistic Neither/Don't know 22
Post-Revolutionary Conditions Egyptians and Tunisians saw their countries biggest problems as the economy and security; corruption and democracy ranked lower. 35% 25% 15% 5% 35% 22% Egypt (Mar) 8% 7% Biggest national problem (mentioned by 5% or more) Tunisia (Apr) 39% 37% 5% 35% 25% 15% 5% 7% 8% CR 2011, IRI 2011 23
Voter turnout soared as Egyptians could vote freely, but dropped as Tunisians were no longer coerced to vote. Egypt Turnout Post-Revolutionary Elections Tunisia Turnout 9 9 89% 8 7 62% 8 7 52% 21% 2005 2011 2009 2011 Official turnout 24
After the revolutions, political parties were unknown to large proportions of Egyptians and Tunisians. Egypt June 2011 Party familiarity top 5 parties (Don t know only) Post-Revolutionary Elections Tunisia April 2011 Party familiarity top 3 parties (Don t know only) Freedom and Justice Party 39% Ennahda 71% Wafd Party 41% PDP 88% Al Ghad Party 59% Tagammu Party 63% Ettajdid 92% Al Nour Party 58% Don't know any 61% 10 10 CR 2011, EMRHOD 2011 25
Post-Revolutionary Elections Moderate Islamists took two-fifths of the vote in Egypt and Tunisia, Salafis one-fifth more in Egypt. Tunisia Oct 2011 Parliamentary Election Results (votes) Egypt* Nov-Dec 2011 Minor Parties and Lists 32% Blank ballots 6% Ennahada (Islamist) 37% Secular Parties 27% Freedom and Justice (Islamist) 37% Ex-NDP 5% Secular Parties 25% Other Islamists 4% Al Nour (Salafis) 27% Official results *1st + 2nd Rounds 26
Post-Revolutionary Elections In Egypt, undecideds broke decisively for the Islamists as the election approached. 7 Freedom and Justice Party (Muslim Brotherhood) Oppose 56% 54% 7 Oppose Al Nour Party (Salafis) 57% 58% Don t know 29% 31% 42% Don t know 35% 36% 31% Support 16% 15% 9% June 2011 Sept 2011 Dec 2011 Gallup 2011 Support 11% 7% 5% June 2011 Sept 2011 Dec 2011 27
Post-Revolutionary Elections Turkey s political system is the most popular political model among Egyptians, followed by Europe. If Egypt s political system looked like that of one of the following countries, which one would you prefer it to be? Turkey 44% Germany, France, UK 22% Saudi Arabia China 8% 8% United States 5% Morocco Iran 2% 1% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% Telhami 2011 28
Religious Institutions and Identity Confidence in religious institutions is far higher across the region than that in political institutions. In your country do you have confidence in the religious organizations? (Yes only) 9 8 7 81% 79% 84% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010 29
Religious Institutions and Identity There is broad support for banning criticism of Islam and harsh Sharia punishments in several Arab countries. Some people say the law should prohibit criticism of Islam or other religions. Would you agree or disagree? (Agree only) Views of Sharia punishments (Favor only) 10 9 8 82% 8 75% 86% 10 9 8 77% Cut hands for theft Death for apostasy 84% 86% 7 7 58% 13% 6% Yemen Egypt Algeria Saudi Arabia Egypt Jordan Lebanon Egypt Jordan Lebanon CR 2008, Pew 2010 30
Tension between Sunni and Shia, and Muslim and Christian, is strong in a number of countries. 9 8 Is your opinion of Shia Muslims favorable or unfavorable? 77% 75% 74% 9 8 Religious Institutions and Identity Is your opinion of Christians favorable or unfavorable? 87% 79% 78% 7 7 56% 52% 15% 25% 16% 21% 15% 4% 4% Yemen Egypt Algeria Saudi Arabia Favorable Yemen Egypt Algeria Saudi Arabia Unfavorable CR 2008 31
Suicide bombing is generally rejected across the region. Suicide bombing is never justified to defend Islam (Agree) Religious Institutions and Identity 8 7 64% 55% 71% Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Pew 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2011 32
International Issues Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, Iran s president, is not very popular with most Arabs. Percent favorable to Ahmedinejad 10 9 8 7 26% 28% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Pew 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2008 33
International Issues Favorability to America s leadership is low throughout the region, despite Barack Obama as president. Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of the USA? (Approve only) 10 9 8 7 24% 24% 27% Group 1 Average Group 2 Average Group 3 Average Gallup World Poll 2010, 2011 34
Views of the UN are mixed, with greater popularity in countries touched by its work for the Palestinians. Percent favorable to UN International Issues 10 9 8 7 65% 54% 41% 35% 35% 18% Lebanon Egypt Algeria Kuwait Saudi Arabia Jordan Morocco Yemen Pew 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011; CR 2008, 2009; Greenberg 2009 35
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