GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia How GAIA aseroids can improve planeary ephemerides? A. Fienga 1,2 1 Insiu UTINAM, Universié de Franche-Comé, France 2 IMCCE, Observaoire de Paris, France A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 1 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia Ouline Overview of he planeary ephemerides INPOP and he aseroids Use of GAIA aseroid observaions o improve Jupier orbi A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 2 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia JPL DE/IAA EMP/INPOP Direc numerical inegraion of equaions of moion 9 planes + Moon + aseroids, GR, J2 Sun, TDB/TCB Fied o observaions Fi of aseroid masses and densiies INPOP: www.imcce.fr/inpop Numerical inegraion wih exended precision 80b Earh and Moon Roaions INPOP(TCB) for GAIA and INPOP(TDB) from IAU 2006 INPOP10a (Fienga e al. 2011), INPOP06 (Fienga e al. 2008), INPOP08 (Fienga e al. 2009), Tess of fundamenal physics / Use for paleoclimas A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 3 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia Overview of he planeary ephemerides JPL DE, EPM, INPOP Same modelling expec for he aseroids rely mainly on (Mars) spacecraf daa Lack of Jupier good observaions Cassini: good consrains on Saurn Impac in he fi in % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Mercury Venus INPOP10a Mars Jupier Saurne Uranus Passive range VEX Viking MGS MEX Sellar occulaions Opical Flybys VLBI Nepune Pluo 1 Poor accuracy of he Jupier orbi 2 Crucial role of he aseroids A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 4 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia Overview of he planeary ephemerides JPL DE, EPM, INPOP Same modelling expec for he aseroids rely mainly on (Mars) spacecraf daa Lack of Jupier good observaions Cassini: good consrains on Saurn Impac in he fi in % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Mercury Venus INPOP10a Mars Jupier Saurne Uranus Passive range VEX Viking MGS MEX Sellar occulaions Opical Flybys VLBI Nepune Pluo 1 Poor accuracy of he Jupier orbi 2 Crucial role of he aseroids A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 4 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia Inernal accuracies of planeary ephemerides INPOP10A DE421 INPOP10A INPOP08 INPOP10A INPOP06 [mas] 10 5 0 1900 1940 1980 2020 dae 1900 1940 1980 2020 [mas] 30 10 10 30 1900 1940 1980 2020 dae 2 1 0 1 2 Longiude [mas] 100 100 300 dae 1900 1940 1980 2020 Laiude [mas] 200 0 100 200 1900 1940 1980 2020 dae disance [km] 200 0 100 300 Longiude [mas] 20 10 0 10 dae Laiude [mas] 10 5 0 5 10 Geocenric disance [km] 1900 1940 1980 2020 dae disance [km] 15 5 0 5 10 1900 1900 1940 1980 2020 A. Fienga 1940 1980 2020 May 4h, 2011 1900 1940 1980 2020 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? dae dae dae 5 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia Planes U min U max α δ ρ α δ ρ mas mas km mas mas km Mercury 5 6 1.5 9 4 1.5 Venus 8 3 0.4 8 6 1.0 Mars* 40 15 10 75 30 15 Jupier 20 30 15 400 200 300 Saurne 0.8 0.4 3 40 60 100 Uranus 300 120 1200 220 100 1500 Nepune 400 100 3500 160 150 5000 Pluo 3000 1000 80000 6000 2000 140000 long la ρ long la ρ Earh 3 1.5 0.04 6 3 0.10 A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 6 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia INPOP and he aseroids Aseroids are highly imporan in planeary ephemerides for: Mars wih more han 30 years of very accurae (< 5 meers) spacecraf racking global fi for all he planes: more han 35 % are Mars daa INPOP10a (Fienga e al. 2011) 24635 aseroid orbis (asorb daabase) inegraed in INPOP planes aseroids, aseroids aseroids, EIH Kuchynka e al. 2010: Lis of he mos probable perurbers of inner planes (287) + ring Mass esimaions wih BVLS algorihm Sudy of correlaions A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 7 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia INPOP and he aseroids Aseroids are highly imporan in planeary ephemerides for: Mars wih more han 30 years of very accurae (< 5 meers) spacecraf racking global fi for all he planes: more han 35 % are Mars daa INPOP10a (Fienga e al. 2011) 24635 aseroid orbis (asorb daabase) inegraed in INPOP planes aseroids, aseroids aseroids, EIH Kuchynka e al. 2010: Lis of he mos probable perurbers of inner planes (287) + ring Mass esimaions wih BVLS algorihm Sudy of correlaions A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 7 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia INPOP10a (Fienga e al. 2011) Lis of he mos probable perurbers + ring (Kuchynka e al. 2010) Mass esimaions wih BVLS algorihm Sudy of correlaions Fixed masses (15) A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 8 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia INPOP and he aseroids Uncerainies of 10% on he 3 Big mass deerminaions A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 9 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia INPOP and he aseroids 324 Bamberga 3 Juno 704 Ineramnia 532 Herculina 7 Iris 29 Amphirie 24 Themis 15 Eunomia 6 Hebe 11 Parhenope 139 Juewa 747 Wincheser 8 Flora 41 Daphne 511 Davida 52 Europa 16 Psyche 130 Elekra 107 Camilla 65 Cybele 21 Lueia 216 Kleopara 804 Hispania INPOP10a Oher K11 INPOP08 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Densiy [g.cm^ 3] 94 m 56 m 34 m 33 m 28 m 27 m 26 m 22 m 21 m 17 m 17 m 16 m 13 m 12 m 10 m 10 m 10 m 7 m 5 m 5 m 5 m 3 m 2 m A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 10 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia How GAIA can help? GAIA aseroid mass deerminaions grea improvemen in he masses for he bigges improvemen for he mass deerminaions wih INPOP Saellies small Jovian saellies Nepune and Uranus saellies Saellies are no ye implemened in INPOP Aseroid orbis 24635 aseroids already implemened in INPOP Big picure: mass + orbi + planes A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 11 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia How GAIA can help? GAIA aseroid mass deerminaions grea improvemen in he masses for he bigges improvemen for he mass deerminaions wih INPOP Saellies small Jovian saellies Nepune and Uranus saellies Saellies are no ye implemened in INPOP Aseroid orbis 24635 aseroids already implemened in INPOP Big picure: mass + orbi + planes A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 11 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia How GAIA can help? GAIA aseroid mass deerminaions grea improvemen in he masses for he bigges improvemen for he mass deerminaions wih INPOP Saellies small Jovian saellies Nepune and Uranus saellies Saellies are no ye implemened in INPOP Aseroid orbis 24635 aseroids already implemened in INPOP Big picure: mass + orbi + planes A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 11 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia Do GAIA aseroid observaions can give beer informaions on Jupier orbi compared o he presen accuracy of Jupier observaions? Presen observaion accuracy over 6 years VLBI Galileo observaions + Flybys normal poins 10 mas in geocenric (α,δ) and 2 km in geocenric disances 8 mas in barycenric longiudes and laiudes impac on he Jupier orbi over 6 years 10 9 AU for a 10 8 for he angles 10 7 for e A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 12 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia quesions: Wha are he impacs of such uncerainies on aseroid orbis? Are hey observable a he level of accuracy of he GAIA observaions? mehod Inegrae aseroid orbi wih differen Jupier orbis Fi of he aseroid orbi o a reference orbi Measuremen of he differences in barycenric longiudes and laiudes of he aseroid 3 cases 1 of he 3 Bigs: 4 Vesa an aseroid wih a close approach wih Jupier: 86 Semele a Troyen: 588 Achilles A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 13 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia Exploring he ellipsoid of Jupier orbi uncerainies For one specific se of variaions of Jupier IC inducing (δλ, δ b)=(17,5) mas Impac on Longiudes Impac on Laiudes Differences in Longiudes [microseconds] 20 0 20 40 60 4 Vesa 86 Semele 588 Achilles Differences in Laiudes [microseconds] 20 0 20 40 60 4 Vesa 86 Semele 588 Achilles 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 [yr] 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 [yr] A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 14 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia For various ses of variaions of Jupier IC inducing (δλ, δ b) up o 6 mas A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 15 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 16 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 17 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia Preliminary Conclusions On hese 3 cases: GAIA aseroid orbis would no be sensiive o small discrepancies (< 6 mas) of he Jupier orbi Bu wha abou looking for specific close approaches? wha abou oher planes? Mars, Earh wih NEO, Nepune wih TNO? Nex seps Make a selecion of he mos perurbed aseroids in order o opimize he resuls Make he modelling more realisic! A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 18 / 19
GREAT-SSO: Solar Sysem science before and afer Gaia The end A. Fienga May 4h, 2011 How GAIA can improve planeary ephemerides? 19 / 19