Iraq conflicts and security issues.docx

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1 Sultan Qaboos University, Oman From the SelectedWorks of Sharifa Al-Kindi April 15, 2016 raq conflicts and security issues.docx Sharifa Zaher Al-Kindi Available at:

2 nternational Security Seminar Series raq Conflict and Security ssues Sharifa Zaher Al Kindi Political Science Department 15 April 2016

3 Table of Contents ntroduction Historical Background... 1 A- British occupation of raq B- Anglo raqi war C- nternal revolutions D- ran-raq war E- The invasion of Kuwait F- the nvasion of raq Current Situation... 9 A- Foreign Affairs. 9 B- Conflicts..10 C- Socio-Cultural Situation. 10. Futuristic Expectations & Solution Alternatives Conclusion Bibliography... 15

4 ntroduction raq was one the most advanced country in the Middle East, and women were most liberated than any other Arab country, however the invasion of raq in 2003 and the ethnic conflicts have lead to the deterioration of the region significantly. More than that the state lost the control and become suffering from anarchy and violence. Whereby the siege of raq targeted the people and the fate of society at all not just Saddam. This led to the destruction of raq's capabilities and prevent it from getting out of its problem. As response, that requires raq to look for a quick and effective solution for raqi people, to enjoy better life with a high stability and security. f raq has not been able to achieve prosperity and security for its people, the situation of the country will be more dangerous, in which the spreading of terrorism and violence will continue. However, who is responsible about the divisions and fractious of national Unity in raq, is that the raqi people themselves or there is another external factor? This Study is going to look for the historical background of wars that is involved raq in order to figure out the effect of History in current situation. That will include, the occupation of raq by Britain, the Anglo-raqi war, the internal issues of raq, the ran-raq war, the invasion of Kuwait and the nvasion of raq in Then, the study will move to describe the current situation comprising the main conflicts, the impact of international community and the socio-cultural situation. Finally, the study will end with the futuristic expectations of raq situation and will suggest some solutions that might solve the problem.. Historical Background A- British occupation of raq Britain is one of the great power which found a strategic and economic interests in raq,therefore it sought to occupy raq's three provinces Baghdad, Mosul, and Basra, which were under the control of the Ottoman Empire For strategic interest Britain sought to get an Ottoman covenants that guarantee them protection when they penetrate to the Middle East, then they succeed to get the first concession from Sultan Murad which paved the way for them to extend their influence in the region and stabilize Britain's interests in raq. n addition, raq provided communication route between Britain and ndia, which was important for the economic interests of the East ndia company which was established in The strategic location of raq, Russo-Turkish war 1828 and the fall of the Mamluk sultanate 1831 were important factors that spurred British to extend their influence in raq. الدكتور حليم بركات, مدونتي ليوميات احتالل العراق )بيروت: منتدى المعارف, 2012( 7-10, 1

5 However, there were also an economic interests represented in merchant shipping, export, import, oil and other works that were carried out by the British trading companies, which have been strengthened after the opening of the Suez Canal in More than that, the opening of foreign banks in raq helped to link the British and raqi economies and the emergence of the telegraph has facilitated these business operations. Since raq is an oil-rich country, Britain tried to seize the raqi oil fields through concessions obtained from Ottoman state. However the most important concession is that which was obtained by raq petroleum company (Turkish oil company before) in 1925 after the fall of Ottoman empire, this concession enabled Britain to guarantee a permanent interests from the raqi government, which was founded in 1925 under the British flag. That strategic and economic interests were key factors behind Britain 's desire to occupy raq militarily, as well as the emergence of Germany as a rival pushed Britain to the occupation of raq to protect those interests. Thus, a committee was formed by the Government of ndia in 1911,recommending the occupation of Basra and Faw to strengthen the prestige of Britain in the region. Subsequently, British consuls began to prepare the information needed about the military capabilities of the Ottoman Empire and planning for the crisis map. Then, with the outbreak of World War Britain found the opportunity to take military action against the Ottomans, where the occupation of raq has passed through three phases. The first phase was when the British government sent its first campaign to raq in 1914 opted to Bahrain and then to Basra, but unfortunately Ottoman authorities realized the advance of British troops too late, therefore it failed in repelling them. As a result, the British forces succeeded in occupying Basra, and the campaign lasted until annexed triangle between Basra, Amarah and Nasiriyah in The second phase, was occupation of Basra and the collapse of Ottoman resistance encouraged the ndian government to move on Baghdad in April of nitially, British government had achieved control of A-lKut, however British armies they had been crushed by the Ottoman forces through a battle between them took place in Al-Madaen, Which led to the withdrawal of its troops in The last phase started when Britain began to reorganize its army and prepare for the recovery of Kut and the capture of Baghdad. Sais Sbeko Treaty that concluded between France and Britain in 1915 has facilitate that occupation, because under that convention the region between Baghdad and Basra had bee placed in the hands of Britain. Britain was planning to occupy the rest of raq, including Mosul. n view of that, raq became officially under the military occupation of Britain. After World War When the victorious nations approved the mandate system, raq was placed under the British Mandate in April Britain used the autocrat colonial style الدكتور بشار فتحي جاسم العكيدي, صراع النفوذ البريطاني-االمريكي في العراق )الموصل: مجلس كلية التربية في جامعة الموصل,,) bid 2

6 against raqis and deceived them with false promises, such as freedom and justice. Accordingly, that led to the revolution of raqis in June 1920, looking forward to independence, that revolution was able to achieve some successes despite the unequal power of both sides, where it had forced the British to achieve part of their promises. More than that, the revolution was the first step in the march of founding the modern raqi state, whereby it had few important result including the regulation of the raqi-british relationship on the basis of contractual, the establishment of a provisional government headed by Abdul Rahman Al-Kilani and British became advisers of raqi ministers. However, when Winston Churchill became the Minister of the British colonies, he decided to reduce expenses in the Middle East, including raq and which required defining the future of raqi government. For that reason, Emir Fiasal bin Al-Hussain was nominated to the throne of raq in 1921, and the form of raq's government became constitutional monarchy, but still Britain had been overseeing the Foreign Relations of raq. B- Anglo raqi War 1941 n 1932 raq became nominally independent from British rule. However, before that independency, Britain has concluded Anglo-raqi Treaty in 1930 which had some conditions that ensure the British control over raqi petroleum resources. One of the conditions was establishing British military bases in raq with facilities of their forces movement through the country. Nevertheless, most of raqis were against that treaty. Until 1937 raqi government was independent in protecting its national security. However, in 1939 when WW declared Britain was putting pressure on raq's government to declare war against Nazi Germany, but raq government had only cut the diplomatic relations with Germany. Consequently, anti-brithish revolution broke out in 1941 by raqi nationalists, led by Rashid Ali who set up a secret communication with the Germans in the Middle East in order to take advantage of the bad relationship between Germany and Britain to restrict British rights guaranteed under Anglo-raqi treaty and to force out most pro-british politicians from raq. However, this led to armed confrontation between Ali and his alliance (opposition to Britain) and Nuri Al-Siad, the prime minister and his alliance (pro- British). So, Britain intervened militarily to support Nuri by sending a military campaign against rebel government in On the other side, Rashid Ali on behalf of "National Defence Government" asked for military aid on April of 1941 from Germany to confront the landing of British forces in Basra. But the revolution had not been able to continue, so this resistance surrendered after a month of war. The war ended with occupation of raq again by الدكتور بشار فتحي جاسم العكيدي, صراع النفوذ البريطاني-االمريكي في العراق )الموصل: مجلس كلية التربية في جامعة الموصل, 2003(, Matthew Hughes, Anglo-raqi war (1941). The encyclopedia of war, no. 1/2 (2011): 2, 3

7 Britain and return the power of pro-british government headed by Jamil Al-Madfaei, who resigned and was succeeded by Nuri Al-Said. C- nternal Revolutions Kurds led a revolution in raq 1945, they were supported by Russia, Britain sent troops to raq in order to ensure oil security. The revolution ended in 1947, at the same year raq concluded a military cooperation agreement with Jordan, that led to participation of raq with Jordan in its war against srael The war ended in 1949 with truce agreement that signed by Arabs and rejected by raq. n 1958 raq joined with Jordan in federation, but it didn t last long, because of the military coup against King Faisal and the declaration of a republic headed by Najib al-rubaie in 1958, then raq withdrew from the federation treaty with Jordan in Once more in 1979, Baath party led a successful coup détente that brought Ahmed Al-Baker to power, and he signed an agreement with Kurds that enable them to get a seats on parliament and to be ministers. The unrest with Kurds in north returned in 1974, where they received military support from ran. Then,as a result of signing Algiers Agreement in 1975, ran stopped supporting the Kurdish rebels, that enable raq to put down the revolution. D- ran-raq War ranian raqi conflict dates back to 244 AD since the rule of the Persian Sassanid over raq. later, it had became ethnic conflict after the slamic conquests, as a result of discrimination policy taken by the Umayyad against non-arabs. Afterward, ranian revolution 1979 turned tension between raq and ran to the hostility and armed confrontation. That was for two major reasons, such as border crisis, and minority issues and dual loyalty in both countries. Firstly, the crisis of demarcation appeared due to the dispute over the Shatt Al-Arab, which was a waterway results from the confluence of the river Tigris and river Euphrates in Karma. Both rivers flow into the Arabian Gulf and is valid for maritime. The problem boils down to demand of ran for joint management in the Shatt Al-Arab, because the bulk of its water comes from ran's Karun River and it has two main ports acquired by Ottoman Empire on the Shatt al-arab called Al-Abaad and Al-Mahmara. As raq goes back to the Shatt Al- Arab to the requirements of the geographical situation that impose a large importance for raq, where it is the only waterway for raq toward Gulf. Secondly, the advent of Persian traders Shiites to raq for the first time in the sixteenth century by the Safavid occupation of raq, they occupy high positions in the Shiite institutions of raq. Subsequently, after the founding of the modern state of raq in 1921, the problem of ranian nationals and their nationality and rights appeared. n 1924 raqis divided into two categories Ottoman عبدالوهاب كريم حميد, "مركز العراق في النظام الدولي, " )أطروحة لنيل الدكتوراة., جامعة محمد الخامس(, 608 عبدالوهاب كريم حميد, "مركز العراق في النظام الدولي, " )أطروحة لنيل الدكتوراة., جامعة محمد الخامس(,

8 dependency and ran dependency. Ottoman dependency has been granted first degree nationality, while ran dependency has been granted the second degree nationality. More than that, citizenship shall not be granted without the certification of ruler, who was always sectarian, then Shittes of raq where sometimes considered as ran dependency. n 1979, ran and raq witnessed the deterioration of the relationship. n this year Al Khomeini took office in ran, and then 5 months later raqi President Ahmed Hassan was replaced by deputy Saddam Hussein. The main reason for the ran-raq war was the abolishing of the Treaty of 1975 by Saddam, due to the Kurdish threat from ran, and he accused ran of bombing raqi border countries in September Correspondingly, he pushed his troops into ranian territory, to start with the longest war in twentieth century and the most bloody. During the war in 1988, raqi forces committed a genocide against Kurds in Halbajan using chemical weapons that banned internationally. This 8 years war which ended officially in 1988, when both parties approves the peace plan that was proposed by UN in 598 resolution, but it had resulted in deaths. The other reason were escalating of interventions in the internal affairs of each other and, Baghdad and Tehran providing help to the opposition parties in the other country. For example, ran publicly called to topple the regime in Baghdad, where the former president Khamenei stressed that by saying "Has to be that the future government in raq is a Muslim Shiite government and the principle of velayat-e faqih will be the principle of the future of raq, the leader of slamic nation is the mam Khomeini, there is no difference between the ranian people and the raqi acceptance of mam commander in follow his orders, governments and states determined by international borders, but the mam is not limited by geographical obstacles". From this standpoint ranian regime hostile the raqi regime and considered it as not representing slam, where we can regard Khomeini's call for Muslims in raq to topple the secular regime led by Baath Party as first step to the war. Another reason is United State was in touch with Saddam secretly trying to persuade him to attack raq and topple the slamic republican regime, in order to free the Americans hostages in ran. America tried to prolong the war as much as possible to weaken the economic and military capabilities of ran and raq which threats their interests and srael's interests in the region. Finally, despite big conflict on the border crisis, still it is not sufficient reason to create a fierce war that led to loss of thousands of victims life and money to both parties. Thus the main reason of the war was more likely political and ideological, whereby both regimes led by two parties ideologically contradictory. عبدالخالق ناصر شومان, الطائفية السياسية في العراق )لندن:دار الحكمة, 2013(,

9 E- The nvasion of Kuwait After the First World War and the discovery of oil in the Gulf, Britain divided the Levant 's territory, and it has played an important role in the demarcation of the border between Saudi Arabia, raq and Kuwait through Uqair conference The border between raq and Kuwait determined by Sir Percy Cox in favor of Kuwait, because during the determination of raqi-saudi border he granted Saudi part from Kuwait territory as a compensation of territory he passed to raq. After raq became independent in 1932, emphasis was placed on the boundary line of 1913 and 1922 agreements. Yet, it seems that raq was not satisfied with the boundary that it has confirmed in 1932, because it had an intention of escalating its incursion in the Gulf through controlling Kuwait's islands (Warbah and Bubiyan), both islands are important for raq as enable her to control the main navigation channel linking the Khawr Zubair. But Kuwait rejected to negotiate on this issue before resolving the problem of boundary. n 1955 Britain has intervene to reach compromise between both parties, whereby it has suggested enabling raq to develop Um Kasr port, renting Wrabah for raq, providing Kuwait with water of Shat A-Arab and demarcation of the border at 1000 meters to south Safwan. However, the regime in raq has changed from monarchy to republic in 1958, then the head of the republic Abdul Karim Qasim refused to recognize Kuwait's independence of 1961 and directly he claimed for annexing Kuwait. Thus far, Kuwait was supported by Arab League and Britain forces, and Arab league has limited claims of raq. Consequently, in 1963 Qasim has removed from power by coup d'état, then president Arif took the reins of power who recognized the independence of Kuwiat and improved the relation with it. Though, the tension between both countries returned in 1972 when raq started to claim again to Warbah and Bubiyan islands, that led raq to control over "Smaita" that located in the border of Kuwait. But due, to the diplomatic efforts of Arab League, raq took out its troops from Kuwait. Although Kuwait supported raq with $ 13.2 billion during the ran-raq war, but raq accused Kuwait of violating its border and stealing 2.4 million of raq's oil wealth. More than that, Saddam called on Kuwait to waive raqi debt that incurred in his war with ran, and he demanded for 10 billion $ during Jeddah talks in July 1990, where Kuwait has agreed to provide only 9 billion. As response, Saddam met with the Ambassador of US in Baghdad Glaspie, but she said "we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait". Thereafter, Saddam forces entered Kuwait in second of Cuneyt Yenigun, Ozcan M. "Republic of raq", (in) Wolfgang, G., nat, K. (Ed.): Foreign Policy in the Greater Middle East, Central Middle Eastern Countries, WVB Wissenschaftliher Verlag, Berlin Publications, Berline, 2005, bid 6

10 August, occupied the entire territory and announced it as a province of raq. Then directly, UNSC issues a resolution of 660 that asking Saddam to withdraw his forces from Kuwait as soon as possible, but he didn t respond to that resolution. n consequence, UNSC issues 661 resolution to impose economic sanctions on raq, and the war between raq and coalition forces that support Kuwait declared, that called "Gulf war". The war passed through two stages, firstly "Operation Desert Shield" which is defensive operation launched by US and Saudi Arabia aimed to protect Saudi Arabia and put pressure on Saddam to withdraw his forces from raq, also US convinced UN to make a resolution that limiting raq with a certain date to took off their forces. Secondly, "Desert Storm" the battle that started in January of 1991 by US-led coalition as a response of raq rejection to UN resolution of 678. Gulf states have spent a lot of money in that battle where they purchased advanced military technologies, but they received support of many countries including Syria, Egypt and Algeria. Afterward the operation ended in February of 1991 when raq declared the acceptance of UN resolutions, in addition to the resolution of border demarcation with Kuwait. F- The nvasion of raq The events of Sept. 11 formed a serious deviation on the path of international relations, that allowed US to expand its influence and foreign interventions surpassing international public opinion. So, when oil became one of the most important objective for the American decision makers, the invasion of raq became the only mean to reach that objective. Still. there are several factors domestically and internationally affected on the US decision to occupy raq. Since Bush declared war on what he called "terrorism", he was looming military strike on raq as he consider it as a threat for regional and international stability. Then, in 2002 Bush succeeded in obtaining the approval of Congress to give him the authority to use military force against raq. All this thanks to the circumstances that have been created after Sept.11 attacks, where he launched several military institutions and his policy adopted on mass mobilization and stir up nationalist feelings about the need to protect the nation and the homeland. Briefly, the religious direction of Bush and his adoption of Protestant ideas had an important impact on his foreign policy, whereby Protestants Evangelicals are based on the theory of "just war". n addition, US Vice President Cheney accused Baghdad of seeking to posses weapons of mass destruction, and he said " The risks of inaction against raq are far greater than the risk of action". Whereas the terrorism issue became a security issue in US, they started to look at foreign policy in the framework of using of force towards raq, according to their Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld "No terrorist state poses a greater Cuneyt Yenigun, Ozcan M. "Republic of raq", (in) Wolfgang, G., nat, K. (Ed.): Foreign Policy in the Greater Middle East, Central Middle Eastern Countries, WVB Wissenschaftliher Verlag, Berlin Publications, Berline, 2005,

11 or more immediate threat to the security of our people and the stability of the world than the regime of Saddam Hussein in raq". n this way, international law is neglected if it is not fit with US foreign interests, while pre-emptive strike approach has become a legitimate. That demonstrate the fact that nternational legitimacy is not determined by the United Nations, instead it determined by the US Congress. When we talk about the goals of America's occupation of raq, we must exclude the fabricated justifications such as Democracy, WMD and the relationship between raq and Al-Qaida. There are three undeclared goals, firstly control over raq oil, where the administration of President Bush Jr. has a close and personal links with oil companies. n instance, Minister of Commerce ( Don Evans ) was president of the company Tom Brown nc in 2000, and Secretary of the Army ( Thomas Diet ) was vice president of ores Azwn Energy Company..etc. Secondly, ensure the security of srael, where there is a mutual vision between srael and Us on occupying raq, that lie in weaken the forces of extremism, nationalists and opponents of the Arab -sraeli conflict's settlement in the Arab world. As well to replace the raqi regime with a new pro- American regime that might recognize srael and establish a diplomatic relation with it. Finally, strategic goal represented in the importance of raq's location and in reducing dependence on Gulf states especially with establishing military bases in raq. The invasion of raq began officially on March 19, 2003, by the coalition forces led by the United States, where British and American military forces has formed 98% of the coalition. US has used four tools to facilitate its invasion of raq. The first one is Military and intelligence, where US has used Powell doctrine that is based on using the enormous military powers of US to hit vital targets of raq, particularly the command centers of raqi armed forces, that aimed for weakening their capabilities to control over the state.more than that, CA used some of raqi military leaders to obtain information on the location of Saddam Hussein, in exchange for financial rewards. Second one is American propaganda, which Promoted through the media that raqi people will receive US and British forces with flowers, because they will liberate them from the injustice of the Saddam regime, despite the fact that some independent public opinion polls have shown that only 2% of raqis perceive the United States as a liberation force. The third one is economic tool represented in confiscating of 1.6 billion of raqi assets that is frozen in US banks, arguing that Washington will use in the process of re-contracting raq after the war, as well as the 1483 عبد الناصر محمد سرور, "دوافع و تداعيات القرار االستراتيجي االمريكي باحتالل العراق عسكريا." مجلة جامعة االقصى) 53-74:)2010, عبد الناصر محمد سرور, "دوافع و تداعيات القرار االستراتيجي االمريكي باحتالل العراق عسكريا." مجلة جامعة االقصى) 53-:)2010,74http:// Youssef Bassil, The 2003 raq War: Operations, Causes, and Consequences. Journal Of Humanities And Social Science17, no. 1/2 (2010): 34-36, 8

12 resolution of UNSC that provides lifting of previous sanctions, and allowed for the occupation authorities to sell raqi oil and put the proceeds in an account under their control. The last one is employment of nternational Organization to achieve the goals of war, where Condoleezza Rice, US national security adviser issued a warning to the United Nations to act over the threats posed by the raqi regime Otherwise, Washington reserves the right to act in defend its self- interests. Then during the occupation of raq nternational organization legitimized the occupation, and named the American forces as a coalition forces. The war ended after Obama announced the withdrawal of US troops from raq in 2011, But it has killed raqis.. Current Situation The invasion of raq in 2003led to the deterioration of the situation in raq sharply, violence by coalition forces was as an incentive to increase the violence and insurgency by terrorist groups and the ranian and American militias. V More than that, when Washington has announced its willingness to withdraw its troops from raq in 2011, it raged political landscape dramatically, with increased suspicion and fear between the parties, sometimes taken sectarian dimension and other times political dimension. n any case the competition for power and influence centers was like marathon or wrestling on the Romanian way, that will not end until the elimination of one of the conflicting parties. That sectarian process in fact has been encouraged by US military since they entered raq 2003, where no one was in the US administration and military leadership talking about raqi people, they were only talking about the Shiites, Sunnah, Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen. Additionally, they formed a temporary Security Council on the basis of a sectarian and racist divide. V As a consequence, the armed factions in raq that based on religious, ethnic and tribal identities have weakening the state, because those identities were competing over the power to control the territory and resources. V A- Foreign Affairs عبد الناصر محمد سرور, "دوافع و تداعيات القرار االستراتيجي االمريكي باحتالل العراق عسكريا." مجلة جامعة االقصى) 53-74:)2010, Mrak Landler, "US Troops to Leave raq by Year's End, Obama Says" The New York Times, October. 21, "إحصائية جديدة لقتلى غزو العراق", الجزيرة نت, V Brit. J. Criminol, The Transformation Of Violance in raq. ResearchGate 17, no. 1/2 (2009): 2-9, عبدالحسين شعبان, "العراق ما بعد االحتالل االمريكي: من القوة الناعمة إلى القوة الخشنة." مجلة التقرير االستراتيجي الخليجي) 2012 ( :-2 V V, 23 V Brit. J. Criminol, The Transformation Of Violance in raq. ResearchGate 17, no. 1/2 (2009): 2-9, 9

13 Both Hard power that used by Bush in post-occupation and Soft power that used by Obama years later have failed in restoring the stability to the country and eliminating terrorism. But even the situation got worse, in which the Al-Qaeda became more active and using violence strongly, besides the increasing of tension in Kirkuk after escalating the conflict over disputed areas and the rise of Kurdish flag in late B- Conflict the armed conflict in raq escalated into a civil war since 2006, especially after the killing of Al-Qaeda leader, al-zarqawi and the formation of what is known as the slamic State of raq, which took over parts of southern Baghdad. However, the SS that called "Daash" started to spread significantly in 2014 under its leader Abu Bakr al-baghdadi. Then the trend of the war has changed, some analysts described it as a "new war", in which the state lost its monopoly over the organized violence and the power shifted to militates. Consequently, that lead the security and stability situation in raq to become more fragile, and the restoration of national unity become more difficult. which made the matters even worse in June 2014, is the imposition of SS militants control over the city of Mosul, the second largest city after the capital, Baghdad. This was due to collapse of raqi forces that suffered of fear and low morale, where raqi soldiers take off their uniforms and fled southward. As a response, Nuri al-maliki, raq's prime minister asked the parliament to declare state of emergency in the country, and he called for the mobilization of "all national energies to combat Daash in Nineveh province and other provinces". Meanwhile, Kurdish Peshmerga, took the chance to advance farther south, and they succeeded to control over all the disputed areas between Erbil and Baghdad, as well as Kirkuk, that make up ten percent of raq's total oil reserves. While the central government in Baghdad is struggling to confront the threats of successive events that led to the deterioration of security in raq, the Kurdistan regional government declared its intention to call for a referendum on independence of Kurds from raq and SS announced the creation of new "Caliphate" that comprise raq and Syria. C- Socio-Cultural Situation A large number of Sunni leaders have been fed up with the practices of the jihadist organization (Daash) in their areas and on the border of Syria. Therefore, they openly supported the military campaign launched by the central government in raq against Brain Michael, "How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and raq." RAND corporation (2015): 2-5, Brit. J. Criminol, The Transformation Of Violance in raq. ResearchGate 17, no. 1/2 (2009): 2-9, جيم ميور, "مسلحو داعش يسيطرون على الموصل شمالي العراق و المالكي يطالب البرلمان بإعالن الطوارئ, " بي بيس ي عربي, حزيران. 10,

14 the rules of Daash, thus that gave a chance for Nuri al-maliki to cooperate with those Sunni tribal and religious leaders to combat terrorism and to overcome sectarian divisions in the country. However, Al-Malki has lost this chance when he describes the military campaign in Anbar as an old war between "Hussein's followers and the followers of Yazid," a reference to the key Shiite battle in the seventh century. Even worse, he has taken several steps that serve the interests of extremists through break up a popular protest camp thronged with thousands of Sunni raqis for months to demand peaceful change, and arrested the powerful Sunni lawmaker Ahmed al- Alwani. The same mistake had repeated, by media and politicians in international community, political headlines focused on SS and consider it as the only force behind the control of many Sunni cities in the north of Baghdad. However, Daash, is just one faction in the insurgency, while there are at least six groups have participated in the offensive. The rebels include a coalition of some 80 Sunni Arab tribes that called "the Military Council of the Tribes of raq" and has a strong presence in some Sunni areas such as Fallujah and Ramadi. This coalition embraces nearly 41 armed groups, including soldiers who were part of Saddam's raqi army. The problem is not with the participation of those forces in fighting side by side with Daash, but because those groups has shown many times ago their willingness to support the federal government against extremism. But, for them, al-maliki has repeatedly shown that he can't be trusted. However, that fact has been realized too late by council of representative of raq, then they failed to withdraw confidence from Al-Maliki. The scene is repeated again today, whereby the country is suffering of austerity, corruption and violation of human rights without implementing any reforms program. Thus, the "state of Law coalition called for the dissolution of parliament and new elections, according to Allkash "We will work to question the prime minister Haider al-abadi in Parliament during the coming sessions; it has become an urgent necessity; for failing to carry out reforms, eliminating the heads of corruption in the country." All in all, the current situation in raq, accelerating spread of terrorism and the deterioration of security in the region explains the failure of the claimed "counterterrorism campaign", that launched by the United States in According to raqi activist Yanar Mohammed We used to have a government that was almost secular. t had one dictator. Now we have almost 60 dictators slamists who think of women as forces of evil. This is what is called the democratization of raq. The present and the future of raq left with the state of more David Romano, raq s Descent into Civil War: A Constitutional Explanation. The Middle East Journal 17, no. 1/2 (2014): 1-2, Hassan Hassan, More Than SS, raq s Sunni nsurgency, Sada Middle East analysis, Jun. 17, اللكاش, "استجواب العبادي في البرلمان اصبح ضرورة ملحة" النور نيوز, يناير. 26,

15 or less intensive "new war", where both weak government and militates fighting for holding power and controlling territories, especially when the efforts of US to establish quasicolonial control of raq failed with Status of Forces Agreement and the presidency of Obama.. Futuristic Expectations and Solution Alternatives The current raqi situation will continue for many years, it is still changing negatively and positively with the developing of events on its regional surroundings. For example, if Syria collapsed, that will reflect on the ranian influence in raq, there is also the role of Turkey and the failure of Arab organizations in dealing with the raqi file. Additionally there is a big possibility of separating Kurdistan from the rest of raq, and establishing the modern Kurdish state. The significant increase of sectarian conflicts indicates that the de facto division of raq will continue, as long as there is no inclusive and unified national project. More than that, the rebuilding of raqi security force will take time, and even if it will succeed to defeat SS that will not end the hostilities, because the war in the country is not between two sides any more. Hence, the future of raq is blurry, especially with the continuing regional and international intervention. The road to change and achieve comprehensive reforms will be long, since the process of radical change will not be realized until the fear transferred from raqi people to their rulers, who until recently had been enjoying a foreign protection from US and ranian support. Moreover, the absence of national raqi project that combine all raqi components including the nationalists opposed to the occupation and its subsequent installation will prolong the road too. raq will not change overnight, due to the long years of totalitarian politics that has eliminate great potentials and prevented the accumulation of experience, which requires great efforts to regain the initiative and train the masses in all fields. The closer the nationalists get to unified collaboration the more possibility they get to reach their desired goal, especially as the new polarizations may arise to make the conflict with a political dimension rather than sectarian. Even if 'm not optimistic in the short term, but believe that raqis have sufficient capacity to build their future, and they need the wisdom which is still absent. raq has an economic potential that enable them to make a comprehensive development in various aspects of life. But, unfortunately, those possibilities was not exploited in a good manner, because of ongoing conflicts. n instance, raq is exporting more than 3 million barrels of oil a day and it holds the world's fourth largest oil reserves, however there are 7 million raqis are living جعفر العقيلي و بثينة جدعون, "مستقبل العراق" ندوة قراءة المستقبل السياسي للعراق, تموز خير الدين حسيب, "العراق و أمريكا... إلى أين ", مركز الدراسات العربية المعاصرة, نيسان جعفر العقيلي و بثينة جدعون, "مستقبل العراق" ندوة قراءة المستقبل السياسي للعراق, تموز

16 below the poverty line, which is equivalent to 23% of the population. What is more, the country is suffering from a serious food crisis! Which is not strange, because the Transparency nternational ranked raq among the most corrupt countries in the world. t concluded that the crisis in raq is more likely ideological rather than economic, As stated by prof. Abbas Kadhim " reconstruction must not be limited to restoring raq's physical infrastructure. But, Political, social and economic reconstruction are equally important, and vital to protecting against a future collapse of the raqi state". As for the sectarian and ideological conflicts, there is no doubt that the new generations are completely different from the old generations in the way of thinking and concerns. The new generations are not interested in doctrinal differences of the religious jurisprudence, but their attention is focused on worldly affairs and the equality of rights in the state more than anything else. f, however, they subjected to persecution because of their religious affiliation, that will lead them to be a fanatic sectarian and push them to insurgency. Thereafter, many thinkers argues that the slogan of political slam (the solution in slam, the Quran our constitution) has proved its failure throughout the history, and the solution lies in a secular democratic system that treats all people of one nation equally and on the basis of belonging to the nation not a race, religion or caste V. From my point of view, that's not always the case because the problem is not with slam, but the problem with those regimes that have adopted slam in a wrong way, or with those people who understood slam in a racial and sectarian basis. Therefore, it is important to educate these people the truth of slam, and how the founders of those sects originally co-existed peacefully and accepted each other, their different views are mercy. Then, believe that the perfect solution which might uproot the sectarian problem from the source of existence is developing the educational process and provide a strong curriculum with a certain courses that educate the new generation on the sectarian and ethnic tolerance. Furthermore, am not against the establishment of democratic system, but it should be understood that democracy is a culture rather than process. n that case, it should not be imposed on people by force as the US was trying to do when it invaded raq in t is really easy to get rid of the dictatorial regime but it is difficult to establish a democracy among the people not familiar with that culture. Moreover, secularism is not even bad thing, because if it is applied probably that will guarantee the protection of religion and the freedom of worship, and it will allow people to perform their rituals without fear. However, if the secularist regime will target only "slam" rather than "religions in general" that will worsen the problem due to strongly commitment of raqis to their traditions,values and religion. Regarding Kurdish problem, the answer is modifying of the federal Constitution to establish a clear solution that achieve justice and fairness for all. Accordingly, suggest that the Sinan Salahdeen, raq has exported the first shipment of natural gas condensate in its history, US news and world report, march. 20, 2006 رواء حيدر, "تقرير دولي: العراق احدى الدول التي تعيش أزمة غذائية ممتدة" إذاعة العراق الحر, تشرين , "خمس دول عربية على قائمة الدول االكثر فسادا في العالم" الحرة, V "الحلول المقترحة لمشكلة الطائفية في العراق" موقع عبدالخالق حسين, 13

17 Kurdish leadership has to choose one of two things: either an independent Kurdish state, or the acceptance of autonomous (decentralized) within a federal raqi state, with the right of the central government in carrying out all the tasks such as distribution of resources among the people, foreign relations,the leadership of the armed forces and so on. To conclude, what mostly raq needs today is restructuring of thinking patterns, as well as political and cultural behaviors of raqi people. Any idea should be fought and corrected with its opposite idea, instead of using force. Accordingly, raq will not be able to get rid of sectarianism until it frees the minds of the people from this idea, and so by embracing the demands of the disputing parties, distributing resources fairly between them and save their dignity. At the international level, raq should establish a good relations with neighboring countries and resolve differences through peaceful means. t must take a firm stand for the countries that have contributed and continue to contribute to supporting terrorism in the country, and take legal action against them to stop them. Conclusion n conclusion, the study explained the history of raq's conflict starting from the British occupation and the establishment of the modern raq, and ended with the occupation of raq by US in 2003 which affected the current situation in raq dramatically. However, the study found that not just US was the determining factor for the deterioration of security in raq nowadays, there are also domestic factors such as the absence of the dea of Unity in the minds of raqi people. Thus, if raqis wanted to get rid of foreign domination and restore their creative essence, they have to free themselves firstly from their internal differences. Whereby, the end of the study shows some proposals that might be effective to restore the security and the unity in raq. Finally, n my opinion the change of the raq's society is at the hand of the raqi people and their government, where if they have a serious intention to cooperate and achieve unity, no one can stop them. But, it requires a bit of patience a huge of efforts. الدكتور حليم بركات, مدونتي ليوميات احتالل العراق )بيروت: منتدى المعارف, 2012(,

18 References Bassil,Youssef. The 2003 raq War: Operations, Causes, and Consequences. Journal Of Humanities And Social Science17, no. 1/2 (2010): Criminol,Brit. J. The Transformation Of Violence in raq. The British Journal for Criminology 17, no. 1/2 (2009): 2-9. Hassan,Hassan. More Than SS, raq s Sunni nsurgency, Sada Middle East analysis, Jun. 17, Hughes,Matthew. Anglo-raqi war (1941). The encyclopedia of war, no. 1/2 (2011): 2, Landler,Mrak."US Troops to Leave raq by Year's End, Obama Says" The New York Times, October. 21, Michael,Brain. "How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and raq." RAND corporation (2015): 2-5. Romano, David. raq s Descent into Civil War: A Constitutional Explanation. The Middle East Journal 17, no. 1/2 (2014): 1-2. Salahdeen,Sinan. raq has exported the first shipment of natural gas condensate in its history, US news and world report, march. 20, Yenigun, Cuneyt, Ozcan M. "Republic of raq", (in) Wolfgang, G., nat, K. (Ed.): Foreign Policy in the Greater Middle East, Central Middle Eastern Countries, WVB Wissenschaftliher Verlag, Berlin Publications, Berline, 2005, عبدالوهاب كريم حميد, "مركز العراق في النظام الدولي, " )أطروحة لنيل الدكتوراة., جامعة محمد الخامس(, عبدالخالق ناصر شومان, الطائفية السياسية في العراق )لندن:دار الحكمة, 2013(, عبد الناصر محمد سرور, "دوافع و تداعيات القرار االستراتيجي االمريكي باحتالل العراق عسكريا." مجلة جامعة االقصى) 53-74:)2010, عبدالحسين شعبان, "العراق ما بعد االحتالل االمريكي: من القوة الناعمة إلى القوة الخشنة." مجلة التقرير االستراتيجي الخليجي) 2012 ( :-2, 23 اللكاش, "استجواب العبادي في البرلمان اصبح ضرورة ملحة" النور نيوز, يناير. 26,2016 جعفر العقيلي و بثينة جدعون, "مستقبل العراق" ندوة قراءة المستقبل السياسي للعراق, تموز خير الدين حسيب, "العراق و أمريكا... إلى أين ", مركز الدراسات العربية المعاصرة, نيسان. 2006

19 رواء حيدر, "تقرير دولي: العراق احدى الدول التي تعيش أزمة غذائية ممتدة" إذاعة العراق الحر, تشرين , "خمس دول عربية على قائمة الدول االكثر فسادا في العالم" الحرة, "الحلول المقترحة لمشكلة الطائفية في العراق" موقع عبدالخالق حسين الدكتور حليم بركات, مدونتي ليوميات احتالل العراق )بيروت: منتدى المعارف, ) , الدكتور بشار فتحي جاسم العكيدي, صراع النفوذ البريطاني-االمريكي في العراق )الموصل: مجلس كلية التربية في جامعة الموصل,,) "إحصائية جديدة لقتلى غزو العراق", الجزيرة نت, 1