Jane's Intelligence Review. Lebanon struggles to secure its borders

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1 Jane's Intelligence Review Lebanon struggles to secure its borders [Content preview Subscribe to IHS Jane s Intelligence Review for full article] Amid the ongoing regional security threat, Hizbullah and the US now have a shared enemy in the Islamic State. Nicholas Blanford examines Lebanon's ambivalent attitude towards the anti-islamic State coalition and explores the potential for co-operation. The first rains of the winter season have struck the desolate and rugged mountains along Lebanon's eastern border with Syria, opening the possibility that several thousand Syrian militants, including fighters with extremist group the Islamic State, could attempt to break out of their mountain redoubt into populated areas of Lebanon. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), which are heavily deployed around the key town of Arsal, home to approximately 38,000 Sunnis, thwarted several probes in late September and early October by armed militants, most likely from the Al-Qaeda-aligned Jabhat al-nusra, attempting to reach the town for resupply. Approximately 16 kilometres to the south of Arsal, fighters from the Iran-backed Shia Hizbullah organisation have built a string of fortified mountain-top observation posts close to the Syrian border. These are intended to block militant Sunni jihadist groups from penetrating Shia-populated areas of the Bekaa Valley and to thwart the creation of a contiguous logistical route linking the Arsal area to Syrian insurgent-held territory in the adjacent regions of Qalamoun and Zabadani to the north and west of Damascus, respectively. Although the focus of attention remains on the northeastern edge of Lebanon's border with Syria, battlefield developments south of Damascus and in the Golan Heights during the summer (June to September) brought other extremist groups, such as Jabhat al-nusra, close to Lebanon's southeast frontier, the nexus of the Israel-Syria-Lebanon tri-border area. Jabhat al-nusra's proximity to a cluster of Sunni villages centred around Shebaa in southeast Lebanon suggests that the militant group could attempt to establish a foothold inside Lebanese territory. Page 1 of 11

2 Lebanese border security (IHS) Page 2 of 11

3 Lebanese border security (northeast corner of Lebanon) (IHS) Page 3 of 11

Lebanese border security (southeast corner of Lebanon) (IHS) 1518792 Jihadist build-up Arsal served as a logistical hub for Syrian insurgent factions from early in the uprising against the regime of

4 Lebanese border security (southeast corner of Lebanon) (IHS) Jihadist build-up Arsal served as a logistical hub for Syrian insurgent factions from early in the uprising against the regime of Syrian president Bashar al-assad, which began in early Dirt tracks leading east from the town were used by Syrian insurgents to ferry weapons, ammunition, and food into Syria, while the town also housed medical facilities to treat wounded fighters and civilians. Arsal's population tripled between 2012 and 2014, with the influx of up to 120,000 Syrian refugees who had fled their homes in Homs province and Qalamoun region, according to the town's municipal council. Page 4 of 11

The presence of insurgents in Arsal and the surrounding mountains began to increase from June 2013 after the fall of Qusayr, an insurgent-held town 8 km north of Lebanon's northern border that was

5 The presence of insurgents in Arsal and the surrounding mountains began to increase from June 2013 after the fall of Qusayr, an insurgent-held town 8 km north of Lebanon's northern border that was seized by Hizbullah and Syrian troops after a 17-day assault. The number of insurgents increased further in the Arsal area after Hizbullah, backed by Syrian troops, launched a six-month campaign in November 2013 to recapture the strategic Qalamoun region between Damascus and Homs that lies adjacent to Lebanon's eastern border. By mid-april 2014, most of Qalamoun had returned to the control of the Assad regime, with surviving insurgent forces having fled either south to the Zabadani region or west into the remote mountains along the Lebanon-Syria border. In June, Iraqi Shia paramilitary forces fighting on behalf of the Assad regime were recalled following the lightning campaign by the Islamic State that month, which rapidly seized Mosul and advanced on Baghdad. The departure of the Iraqi paramilitaries left the Assad regime's grip on some areas uncertain. An Israeli army tank patrolling near the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms in southern Lebanon, on 8 October. Hizbullah had attacked an Israeli patrol in the nearby hills of Kfar Shouba village the previous day. (PA) In the Qalamoun region, insurgents based in Lebanon noticed a reduction in the number of checkpoints and pro-assad regime assets garrisoning villages and towns and launched a series of hit-and-run attacks. The fighting expanded further into Qalamoun, dragging Hizbullah and Syrian troops back into the conflict. It also spilled into the barren mountains inside Lebanon, pitting Hizbullah against Syrian insurgent groups, mainly Jabhat al-nusra. Page 5 of 11

On 2 August, a combined force of approximately 500-700 militants from the Islamic State, Jabhat al-nusra, and the Free Syrian Army launched a sudden assault against LAF positions in Arsal.

6 On 2 August, a combined force of approximately militants from the Islamic State, Jabhat al-nusra, and the Free Syrian Army launched a sudden assault against LAF positions in Arsal. The LAF was unprepared for such an attack and several positions were overrun, including the headquarters of a battalion of the LAF's 8th Mechanised Infantry Brigade. The battalion commanding officer and his deputy were killed. Preparing the defences After the assault on Arsal, the LAF bolstered its presence in the town in a bid to seal it off as a source of resupply from the militants in the mountains and to guard against another attack. Before 2 August, individual fighters had often visited family members in the refugee camps around Arsal and picked up basic supplies for their comrades. However, the LAF blocked all the access routes from the mountains to Arsal after their intervention. By early October, the LAF's 5th Intervention Regiment and 8th Mechanised Infantry Brigade were deployed in the Arsal area, with support from the 2nd Land Border Regiment. Nine LAF positions were being erected around Arsal and strengthened with Hesco blast barriers and sandbags. In addition, an LAF company-sized fortified observation post fitted with long-range surveillance cameras was built with UK funding 9.5 km north of Arsal, guarding the approaches to Ras Baalbek, a Christian village. A second tower was due to be built closer to Arsal before the end of The LAF also had trailer-based mobile observation platforms deployed for temporary surveillance missions on hills around Arsal. Lebanese army reinforcements arrive on the outskirts of Arsal on 4 August. Arsal served as a logistical hub Page 6 of 11

7 for Syrian insurgent factions. (PA) The LAF currently operates two Cessna AC208 Combat Caravans, one of which is capable of carrying AGM- 114 Hellfire missiles from a limited stock available. In recognition of the utility of the aircraft during the Arsal battle, the US agreed to sell another armed Cessna to the LAF, while the reconnaissance Cessna will be adapted to carry missiles. Military sources consulted in Lebanon by IHS Jane's confirmed the sale of the third Cessna, funded by Saudi Arabia, although no date for delivery has been set. The LAF has also deployed artillery batteries near the village of Labwe, 3 km west of Arsal, to cover the eastern mountain ranges. By the end of 2014, the LAF intends to be in a position of strength in the Arsal area that will allow it to mount aggressive patrols along the 1-km no-man's land separating its cordon around Arsal and the beginning of militant-controlled terrain. The new Arsal? Although Arsal is the primary concern for the LAF and Hizbullah and has drawn the attention of the international community, there are fears that another Sunni-populated town - Shebaa in the south-east corner of Lebanon - could also become a stronghold for anti-hizbullah Sunni militants. Shebaa, which has a population of approximately 20,000, swollen by around 6,000 Syrian refugees, lies at the southern foot of Mount Hermon, with several other Sunni-populated villages nearby. In August and September, Syrian insurgent groups, including Jabhat al-nusra, gained territory in the northern sector of the Golan Heights patrolled by the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), and on 28 August, Jabhat al-nusra militants abducted 45 Fijian UNDOF soldiers. The soldiers were released two weeks later, but in mid-september the UNDOF withdrew most of its peacekeepers from the eastern side of the buffer zone, known as the Bravo Line, to the Alpha Line, which lies on the Israeli side. Jabhat al-nusra and other Syrian factions essentially have current control over much of the Syrian side of the Alpha Line in the northern half of the UNDOF zone, up to the village of Beit Jen. The village lies directly opposite Shebaa and is separated by the southern peaks of Mount Hermon, which at that point reach up to 2,000 metres in elevation, therefore creating a natural barrier to vehicles. Page 7 of 11

Lebanese Sunni masked gunmen in Fnaydek, north Lebanon, during the 3 September funeral procession of Sergeant Ali Sayid, who was beheaded by Islamist militants.

8 Lebanese Sunni masked gunmen in Fnaydek, north Lebanon, during the 3 September funeral procession of Sergeant Ali Sayid, who was beheaded by Islamist militants. The militants also took approximately 36 Lebanese soldiers and policemen hostage during their assault on Arsal in August. (PA) The smuggling trails between Shebaa and Beit Jen have been used for the past two years by refugees fleeing the fighting in Syria, and also by militants seeking medical aid or for rest and recuperation. The only vehicle-worthy roads in the area lie to the north of Mount Hermon, but the Syrian army controls the territory on the Syrian side of the border and the LAF has set up roadblocks and checkpoints on the Lebanese side. The only transport between Beit Jen and Shebaa is either on foot or by donkey, limiting Jabhat al-nusra's ability to project force into the Shebaa area even if it should wish to do so. The LAF has also sent additional troops into Shebaa and deployed artillery batteries. Violent Ashura? Shia, Hizbullah-supporting areas of Lebanon were struck by at least 11 suicide IED attacks between November 2013 and the end of June 2014, killing 61 people and wounding 500 others, according to statistics compiled by IHS Jane's. Most of the attacks occurred between January and the end of March, when the Qalamoun region was under the control of Syrian insurgent groups and was the origin of many of the IED-rigged vehicles that were driven into Lebanon via Arsal. The Qalamoun IED factories were overrun Page 8 of 11

9 by Hizbullah and Syrian troops by mid-april; since then, the Lebanese security agencies have had some success at uncovering IED plots and arresting suspects. Enhanced security measures in some Shia areas, such as the southern suburbs of Beirut, have helped deter suicide VBIED (SVBIED) attackers. However, according to Hizbullah sources consulted by IHS Jane's, the group has been particularly concerned at the possibility of militants wearing explosive vests staging shooting attacks in the densely populated southern suburbs of Beirut before detonating their vests. In early October, Hizbullah offloaded several thousand of its AK-47-type assault rifles onto the black market in Beirut, specifically to allow its Shia support base to arm itself. The stamped logo of the Abbas Brigades, a Hizbullah fighting unit, was removed from the stocks of the rifles and the weapons were sold in green plastic bags for approximately USD1,300-1,400 each, around USD less than the local market price for an AK-47. The Hizbullah sources said that the rifles sold out quickly. Despite such security measures undertaken by Hizbullah and the Lebanese security apparatus, it is surprising that there have been no attacks of any kind against the Shia party and its supporters since the end of June. The motivation to strike at Hizbullah exists among Lebanese Sunnis and Syrian militants. There have been a number of isolated shooting attacks against the LAF in Tripoli and the northern Akkar province in 2014, with at least six soldiers killed since the beginning of August, according to Lebanese media reports. Many Sunnis accuse the LAF of siding too closely with Hizbullah, claiming that Lebanese Sunnis are arrested for attempting to join insurgent factions in Syria while nothing is done to prevent several thousand Shia Hizbullah fighters from battling on behalf of the Assad regime. Ahmad Fatfat, a Sunni MP from Tripoli and a member of the moderate Future Movement, was reported to have said in early October, "There is a sense of aversion toward the army in Tripoli and the problem is related to how the army implements its security measures across Lebanon." Another potential source of militancy lies within the Syrian refugee population, which officially stands at 1.2 million but is actually likely to be much higher. The Lebanese government has resisted calls to set up refugee camps, fearing that they will become permanent dwelling places similar to those established for the Palestinians after the Second World War. To date, the Syrian refugee population has been mainly concerned with daily survival, but the threat of potential radicalisation and mobilisation exists and concerns Lebanese officials. Page 9 of 11

Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers prepare to deploy towards Arsal on 4 August. The LAF thwarted several probes in the area by armed militants in late September and early October.

10 Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldiers prepare to deploy towards Arsal on 4 August. The LAF thwarted several probes in the area by armed militants in late September and early October. (PA) Conclusion One of the ironies of the current parlous security situation in Lebanon is that Hizbullah and the US now have a shared enemy in the Islamic State. However, Hizbullah has spoken out against the US-led anti- Islamic State coalition, following the lead of its Iranian patron which, along with Syria, was sidelined from the alliance. In a televised address on 23 September, Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, "He who dropped the atomic bomb on the people of Japan, and who killed in Vietnam and elsewhere and who stood by [Israeli prime minister Binyamin] Netanyahu in the 50-day war on Gaza is not qualified ethically or morally to present itself as a leader of a coalition to fight terrorism." Iranian and Hizbullah officials argue that the US campaign against the Islamic State is insincere, and that the anti-assad policies of Washington and Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar were responsible for the rise of violent jihadists in Syria. A more pressing concern for Iran and Hizbullah is the long-term objective of the coalition. Washington has announced that it will facilitate the training of vetted moderate Syrian insurgent forces to allow them to Page 10 of 11

11 fight the Islamic State in Syria. However, US-trained insurgents could eventually pose a greater threat to the Assad regime and Syria's overstretched army. The Lebanese state has adopted an ambivalent attitude towards the coalition, reflecting the domestic divergence of views. Lebanese minister of foreign affairs Gebran Bassil attended an international meeting in Paris on 15 September to discuss strategy against the Islamic State, saying, "No-one has the right to step down from their duty to confront [the Islamic State]". However, Bassil also called for the anti-islamic State campaign to be conducted under the aegis of the United Nations, in a possible attempt to dilute Washington's leadership role; in an apparent nod to Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah, he added that there should not be "any exclusion of countries or parties that are willing to counter the Islamic State." Copyright IHS Global Limited, 2014 For the full version and more content: IHS Jane's Military & Security Assessments Intelligence Centre This analysis is taken from IHS Jane s Military & Security Assessments Intelligence Centre, which delivers comprehensive and reliable country risk and military capabilities information, analysis and daily insight. IHS country risk and military capabilities news and analysis is also available within IHS Jane s Intelligence Review. To learn more and to subscribe to IHS Jane s Intelligence Review online, offline or print visit For advertising solutions contact the IHS Jane s Advertising team Page 11 of 11

U.S. Admits Airstrike in Syria, Meant to Hit ISIS, Killed Syrian Troops

http://nyti.ms/2cxkw1u MIDDLE EAST U.S. Admits Airstrike in Syria, Meant to Hit ISIS, Killed Syrian Troops By ANNE BARNARD and MARK MAZZETTI SEPT. 17, 2016 BEIRUT, Lebanon The United States acknowledged