Bangladesh 2017: Resurgence of Radicalism

Transcription

1 NIAS Strategic Forecast 17 Trends. Threats. Projections Bangladesh 2017: Resurgence of Radicalism Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray March 2017 International Strategic and Security Studies Programme National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bengaluru , India

2 NIAS Strategic Forecast #17 I March 2017 National Institute of Advanced Studies International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP) The International Strategic & Security Studies Programme, was started at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore in 1996 with the broad objective of conducting academic and policy research related to national and international security issues. The emphasis of research is towards integrating complex elements of science and technology with policy, organizational and institutional arrangements. NIAS Strategic Forecasts aim at highlighting trends, threats and projections on contemporary developments at the regional and global levels. This series include the following reports: US 2017: Trump and Asia Prof Amit Gupta East Asia 2017: In the age of Donald Trump Dr Prakash Panneerselvam China 2017: Foreign Policy Offensive? Dr Bhartendu Kumar Singh Bangladesh 2017: Resurgence of Radicalism Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray C National Institute of Advanced Studies 2017 Published by National Institute of Advanced Studies Indian Institute of Science Campus Bengaluru INDIA Tel: NIAS Report: R Myanmar 2017: One Step Forward, Two Steps Backward Dr M Mayilvaganan Nepal 2017: Where to from here Sohan Sha Pakistan 2017: The Slow Burn Prof D. Suba Chandran Sri Lanka 2017: A Balancing Act Dr N. Manoharan Leftwing Extremism 2017: Sparks from a flailing revolution Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray

3 Bangladesh 2017 Bangladesh 2017: Resurgence of Radicalism Bibhu Prasad Routray Director, Mantraya In the last two years, Islamist radicalism has witnessed resurgence in Bangladesh... much of these attacks are owned by the Islamic State. While the world believes these claims, government in Dhaka continues to contest this popular narrative. How is this resurgence of radicalism likely to evolve in 2017? This has been analysed by taking into the two principal factors: operational strength and influence of the Islamists; and Official counter terrorism policy. In the last two years, Islamist radicalism has witnessed resurgence in Bangladesh. Arguably the second South Asian country where a wave of religion inspired violence expressed through high profile as well as smaller terror attacks continue, much of these attacks are owned by the Islamic State. While the world believes these claims, government in Dhaka continues to contest this popular narrative. The ruling Awami League (AL) government on the contrary blames the indigenous Islamists rather than the transnational terror formation for the terror acts. Its response to end such terror has consisted of a series of kinetic operations and systemic targeting of the Islamists. And yet, intermittent terror attacks continue to take place. Photo Source: How is this resurgence of radicalism likely to evolve in 2017? This has been analysed by taking into the two principal factors: (i)

4 NIAS Strategic Forecast 11, # 17 December I March operational strength and influence of the Islamists and (ii) Official counter terrorism policy. I Resurgence of the Radicals: On 14 March, two militants blew themselves up to evade arrest at Sitakunda in Chittagong. On 16 March, a suicide bomber blew himself up near a camp of the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) at Ashkona in Dhaka. On March 24, another suicide bomber attacked a police box and blew himself up in Uttara, near Dhaka Airport. On the same day, the army, police, and RAB began an operation at a suspected den of banned Islamist militant Jama'atul Mujahedeen Bangladesh (JMB) at a house in Shibbari area of Sylhet city in northeastern Bangladesh. By March 26, six people, including two policemen, were killed in terrorist bomb blasts and grenade attacks in Sylhet; and later two terrorists blew themselves up. The Islamic State owned all these attacks. The government, however, dismisses such claims and blames neo-jmb, a new radicalised avatar of the erstwhile Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) for the attacks. Irrespective of the veracity of the Islamic State's or the Government of Bangladesh' claims, these incidents are the latest in a series of incidents to have taken place in Bangladesh since 2015 demonstrating a resurgence of radicalism. The 1 July 2016 attack on the Holey Artisan café in Dhaka's Gulshan neighborhood, that killed 22 people, most of them foreigners remains the biggest of the terror attacks in the country's history. The erstwhile JMB aimed at establishing the rule of Islam in Bangladesh through an armed struggle. (i) Increasing strength of the Islamists: The 1 July 2016 attack on the Holey Artisan café in Dhaka's Gulshan neighborhood, that killed 22 people, most of them foreigners remains the biggest of the terror attacks in the country's history. The erstwhile JMB aimed at establishing the rule of Islam in Bangladesh through an armed struggle. The outfit was opposed to the establishment of democracy and calls for the conduct of government under Islamic law. Although the neo-jmb has not explicitly clarified regarding its end objective, it is not expected to be different from its predecessor. The Islamic State, on the other hand, expands this objective by linking it to a much wider playing arena. It provides the wannabe militants a profile far beyond what a home grown militant can aspire for. This will make the Islamic State sympathisers, even without any direct linkage with the parent outfit, pose a far greater challenge than what the official estimate portrays. (ii) Expanding areas of influence: The Neo JMB has been active in northern districts of Bangladesh since its re-surfacing in Notwithstanding the official claim that the country's northern region has remained a stronghold of militants where most of the militant activities have been organised, attacks have taken place throughout Bangladesh, implying a much larger spread of

5 Pakistan s Bangladesh New 2017 Army Chief: Likely Challenges for India radicalism. Militants have recruited not just from the working class and the traditional strongholds of the Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing the Islami Chhatra Shibir combine, but have successfully targeted campuses of private schools and universities. This trend is likely to continue well into 2017 taking advantage the political polarisation in the country amid the AL's continued move to punish the people who collaborated with Pakistan during the liberation movement. The Islamisation of the campuses and role of outfits like the Hizb-ut Tahrir in radicalising students will ensure a continuous supply for radicals for the neo-jmb and the Islamic State. The Islamisation of the campuses and role of outfits like the Hizb-ut Tahrir in radicalising students will ensure a continuous supply for radicals for the neo-jmb and the Islamic State. (iii) Profile of the radicals: The JMB had been initiated by persons who had some level exposure to the anti-soviet jihad in Afghanistan and operational linkages with the al Qaeda. Most of the top leaders came from modest social background and with madrassa education. The neo-jmb/ Islamic State sympathisers, on other hand, represent a capacity leap. According to the official assessments, the neo-jmb, "is far more radicalized and fearsome". Being inspired by the ideology of the Islamic State, skilled in modern technology and equipped with sophisticated firearms it is capable of causing damage more than the old JMB which a decade ago." Attackers of the Holey Artisan cafe consisted of tech-savvy young men educated in private universities/schools. They hailed from well-to-do families. Even though the neo-jmb/islamic state still uses ordinary and less-educates commoners, in the coming day its reliance on educated and self-funded young Bangladeshis is bound to grow. (iv) Growing relationship with the IS: The erstwhile JMB' linkages with the al-qaeda mostly remained symbolic. The neo-jmb hot into fame after carrying out a robbery on the Bangladesh Commerce Bank Limited (BCBL) in Ashulia, a suburban area near Dhaka city on 21 April 2015, leaving eight people dead, an incident demonstrate the lack of adequate finance with the outfit. The new crop of militants, on the other hand, are more closely aligned with the Islamic State. The escapades of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria inspires them. The acts of the lone-wolfs acting on behalf of the Islamic State prepares them for undertaking similar actions in Bangladesh. Moreover, investigations reveal that some of these militants have also received substantial external assistance. Such symbiotic relationship is bound to grow and manifest itself in various ways in the months to come. (v) Impact on neighbouring India: Bangladesh has warned India that a large number of Islamist cadres have been able to infiltrate into India in search of safe haven, for recruitment of cadres and also for

6 NIAS Strategic Forecast 11, # 17 December I March plotting terror attacks within India. According to an official report submitted by Dhaka to India's Ministry of Home Affairs, the year 2016 witnessed an over-three-fold increase over 2015 in infiltration by Harkat-ul-Jihadi al-islami (HuJI) and JMB extremists into the border states of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. The report said approximately 2,010 HuJI and JMB operatives had entered the three states. While nearly 720 men made a safe passage through the Bengal border, the remaining 1,290 are suspected to have entered through Assam and Tripura. Some JMB cadres have been arrested in Assam. The October 2014 explosion in Burdwan that killed two persons revealed the presence of JMB cadres within India. However, it is unlikely that JMB or Islamic State militants who are using Indian territory for safe haven and organise attacks in Bangladesh will make India their primary target. (v) Expanding terror frontiers: In the coming months, the source of terror may not confine itself to the disgruntled Islamists alone and may expand to other disenfranchised groups like the Rohingyas. There have been ample indications of Pakistan based terror formations like the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) attempting to recruit and radicalise the Rohingya community with an objective of carrying out attacks in India and Bangladesh. Bangladesh has about 3 to 5 lakhs disenfanchised Rohingyas. If a miniscule minority of these are converted as terrorists, it can have serious consequences. II Counter-Terrorism Response Return of the military courts in Pakistan now is a foregone conclusion. The question is what the short term challenges are for Sharif (in getting In the extension coming through another months, Parliamentary the amendment) source and long term issues (in terms of shrinking political space in domestic governance and external relations). of terror may not confine itself to the disgruntled Islamists alone and may expand to other disenfranchised groups like the Rohingyas. There have been ample indications of Pakistan based terror formations like the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) attempting to recruit and radicalise the Rohingya community with an objective of carrying out attacks in India and Bangladesh. Bangladeshi authorities have killed at least 34 suspected militants and arrested hundreds in raids carried out since the July 2016 attack on the Holey Artisan cafe in Dhaka. In early March 2017, 24- year old Amijul Islam, described as the coordinator of the neo JMB militants across the country and in charge of reorganising the outfit's military wing was killed in a security operation in Bogra, after being arrested few days back in Rajshanhi district. His predecessor Fazlur Rahman Taher alias Raj had been arrested in Chandpur Pabnapara village in Natore district on 13 January. On 20 March, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) arrested five JMB militants belonging to the 'Sarwar-Tamim' faction. These instances are part of a much wider anti-terrorism kinetic approach launched by Bangladesh to rid the country off radicalism. And yet there is little sign that such an approach is succeeding. (i) Reliance on a kinetic approach: On 8 October 2016, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said: "Our government has always taken stern action against terrorism and

7 Pakistan s Bangladesh New 2017 Army Chief: Likely Challenges for India militancy and would continue to curb the twin demons with an iron hand... There would be no place for terrorism and militancy on Bangladesh's soil." Earlier on September 3, 2016, asking the terrorists and militants to surrender or face dire consequences, Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan said: "If you do not give yourself up to the law enforcement agencies, you will face what your accomplices have experienced in the immediate past operations." Indeed, Dhaka's past successes against the JMB by using a force centric approach probably influences it current counterterrorism policy. On the one hand, Dhaka dismisses claims that the Islamic State has any influence in the country and on the other, it believes that a force centric approach alone is sufficient to deal with the challenge. The best example of this trend was Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury, described as the IS chief for Bangladesh. Chowdhury appeared in the Islamic State videos and was repeatedly cited in the group's publications, However, Dhaka maintained that he merely belonged to the JMB. Tamim, the mastermind of the Gulshan café attack, was killed during a raid in Narayanganj in August In spite of the fact that resurgence of radicalism is deep rooted and linked to the polarised politics, influenced by external as well as internal factors, Bangladesh's reliance on 'eliminating terrorists to eliminate terrorism' is likely to continue. Over the years security forces have taken recourse to the tactic of taking the arrested terrorist in search of arms or his colleagues and kill him following an alleged escape bid. (ii) Eliminating terrorists to eliminate terrorism: The official response spearheaded by the RAB and the police has been to demonstrate success, which combines kinetic operations against the militants and also, killing of alleged JMB leaders, mostly in fake encounters. Over the years security forces have taken recourse to the tactic of taking the arrested terrorist in search of arms or his colleagues and kill him following an alleged escape bid. In recent past, Amijul, a petty electrician who was described as neo-jmb coordinator was killed in similar circumstances in Bogra. Similarly, 30 year old Khaled Hasan alias Badar Mama, the previous chief of neo-jmb's north Bengal division too was killed in Sherpur district on 29 August Following the 17 March suicide attack, one Hanif Mridha was arrested and died in custody the next day. Mridha' family members claim that he had been picked up by RAB on 27 February 27, three weeks before his death. This tactic was extremely effective vis-avis the country's ragtag left-wing extremist organisations, although in case of the JMB and the Islamic State such killings may backfire arousing sympathies among potential recruits. (iii) Limitations of a kinetic approach: A not-so-conservative estimate in 2007 concluded that Bangladesh

8 NIAS NIAS Strategic Forecast 11, # 17I December March had more than 10,000 JMB members across the country, with a 2000 strong suicide squad called Shahid Nasirullah Araft Brigade. According to South Asia Terrorism Portal, 265 Islamist militants have been killed by security forces between 2008 and Of these 133 were killed in 2013 alone, bulk of whom belonged to the Jamaat-e-Islami. This indicates that much of the wherewithal of the radicals is still intact and may be employed in coming months. Bangladesh still does not consider it worthwhile to attempt a comprehensive approach that combines deradicalisation, an amnesty scheme, counselling, involvement of parents and preachers to address the radicals. (iv) Low scale, for how long? Apart from the 2016 attack on the Holey Artisan cafe in which the gun totting militants massacred 22 persons, most of the terror attacks have remained low impact. Bangladesh seems to be taking comfort from the lack of ability of what it considers to be an essentially poorly trained and inadequately organised group of militants and appears convinced in the adequacy of a force centric approach alone. However, given that the Islamic State/ neo-jmb are increasingly taking recourse to suicide terrorism, a pattern of terrorism that involves the highest degree of radicalisation, such complacency may prove to be disastrous. Combined with techsavvy youngsters, relatively unknown funding pattern and external sponsors, the quality of attacks may undergo a huge leap in no time. III Conclusion In spite of the security force operations aiming to neutralise the Islamists, Bangladesh in 2017 is likely to see small as well as bigger terror attacks, responsibility for most of which will be claimed by the Islamic State. Even while conforming to the official narrative of the IS having no presence in the country and the neo-jmb being responsible for the terror activities, it needs to be accepted that the massive crackdown that followed on the Islamists following the 2016 Gulshan cafe attack did not eliminate them altogether. In fact, they lay low for sometime before regrouping and launching attacks in The problem is far too deep rooted and publicity seeking counterterrorism operations are inadequate to deal with the challenge. About the author Bibhu Prasad Routray is Director, Mantaraya, an independent research forum that seeks to make constructive contributions in the realm of strategy, innovation and alternatives. Views expressed are author s own