The Economics of Faith: Using an Apocalyptic Prophecy to Elicit Religious Beliefs in the Field
|
|
- Darrell Cunningham
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Economics of Faith: Using an Apocalyptic Prophecy to Elicit Religious Beliefs in the Field Ned Augenblick Haas School of Business Ernesto Dal Bo Haas School of Business Jesse Cunha Naval Post-graduate Academy Justin M. Rao Yahoo! Research
2 beliefs about the supernatural
3 people
4 who believe(d) in a specific date of Christ s return
5 a belief that is tempting to dismiss as crazy
6 question:
7 can we learn anything about humans form beliefs more generally?
8 are they mentally unsound?
9 or maybe
10 these people are normal
11 like you and I
12 but simply hold beliefs we don t agree with?
13 if so then
14 we can learn about how and why people in general:
15 we can learn about how and why people in general: 1) form extreme beliefs
16 we can learn about how and why people in general: 1) form extreme beliefs 2) adjust to evidence against them
17 we argue they are normal
18 all humans are a bit strange
19 beliefs based on insufficient evidence are hard to rationalize
20 (within traditional economics)
21 prefs over outcomes
22 beliefs have instrumental role
23 less traditional theories
24 1) cognitive dissonance costs Akerlof and Dickens (1982)
25 2) anticipatory utility Brunnermeier and Parker (2005)
26 beliefs play a hedonic role
27 rational agents manipulate beliefs (based on costs)
28 demand for beliefs
29 general behavioral evidence
30 stated overconfidence in surveys (Svenson 1983)
31 (attribute and signal space) Santos-Pinto and Sobel (2005) Benoit and Dubra (2011)
32 self-serving bias Babcock and Lowenstein (1993)
33 attribution theory Heider (1958)
34 confirmation bias Lord, Ross and Lepper (1977)
35 valence-dependent processing/search Eil and Rao (2011) Mobius et al. (2011)
36 (could be just a bias towards positive, not demand for beliefs)
37 ideally we d have:
38 1) beliefs formed recently
39 1) beliefs formed recently 2) data cannot be misinterpreted with slight biases or difference in priors
40 1) beliefs formed recently 2) data cannot be misinterpreted with slight biases or difference in priors 3) trigger financial decisions
41 the Family Radio group satisfy these properties
42 we study them in 4 ways
43 1) time-preference (belief) study
44 1) time-preference (belief) study 2) survey of group members
45 1) time-preference (belief) study 2) survey of group members 3) model of beliefs
46 1) time-preference (belief) study 2) survey of group members 3) model of beliefs 4) analysis of online message board
47 <Background>
48 Harold Camping
49 Camping May, years old
50 Successful Civil Engineer UC Berkeley Graduate
51 Founder and head of Family Radio
52 theological basis
53 biblical literalism
54 through various other calculations/numerology date pinned
55
56 through various other calculations/numerology date pinned
57 through various other calculations/numerology date pinned
58 no longer a possibility
59 absolute certainty
60 guaranteed
61 Prediction: On May 21
62
63
64 Predicted May 21
65 then 5 months of
66 Armageddon
67 Oct 21, 2011 Physical End of World
68 (based on literal interpretation of Book of Revelation)
69 other denominations opt for metaphorical interpretation
70 Timeline of the Prediction
71 2004: Camping discusses prediction on FR air
72 2004: Camping discusses prediction on FR air 2004: Long-time financial manager of FR dies
73 2004: Camping discusses prediction on FR air 2004: Long-time financial manager of FR dies 2005 March: Camping publishes Time Has an End formally proving May 21, 2011 Judgment Day
74 2004: Camping discusses prediction on FR air 2004: Long-time financial manager of FR dies 2005 March: Camping publishes Time Has an End formally proving May 21, 2011 Judgment Day : FR liquidates assets (FCC spectrum), donations pick up
75 2004: Camping discusses prediction on FR air 2004: Long-time financial manager of FR dies 2005 March: Camping publishes Time Has an End formally proving May 21, 2011 Judgment Day : FR liquidates assets (FCC spectrum), donations pick up : spending balloons, mainly through advertising, assets swell then drop
76 Family Radio balance sheet (compiled from IRS 990 filings)
77 (guess when prediction happened)
78 May 7-14, 2011: Our experiment
79 May 7-14, 2011: Our experiment May 21, 2011: Nothing out of the ordinary
80 May 7-14, 2011: Our experiment May 21, 2011: Nothing out of the ordinary May 23, 2011: Camping declares spiritual judgment had occurred. End of world would still occur Oct 21, Rapture now added to Oct 21.
81 May 7-14, 2011: Our experiment May 21, 2011: Nothing out of the ordinary May 23, 2011: Camping declares spiritual judgment had occurred. End of world would still occur Oct 21, Rapture now added to Oct 21. June 6, 2011: Camping suffers stroke, makes no further public appearances
82 May 7-14, 2011: Our experiment May 21, 2011: Nothing out of the ordinary May 23, 2011: Camping declares spiritual judgment had occurred. End of world would still occur Oct 21, Rapture now added to Oct 21. June 6, 2011: Camping suffers stroke, makes no further public appearances Oct 21, 2011:?
83 evidentiary basis similar to religious groups in general (more controversial)
84 2006 Gallup poll: 3 in 10 Americans: Bible is literal word of God 4 in 10: God created humans in present form about 10,000 years ago 4 in 10: angles and demons are active in the world 92% believe in God, 79% absolute certainty
85 why study these people?
86 1) Religious beliefs guide decisions
87 2) These beliefs have a similar (or at least not too different) basis as those held by many people
88 3) verifiable predictions based in the supernatural are rare
89 <Experiment and Survey>
90 experiment basic idea: - more you believe in May 21, less valuable money delivered after May 21 is
91 experiment basic idea: - more you believe in May 21, less valuable money delivered after May 21 is - to measure demand for beliefs, we vary stakes, through changing probability decision is executed
92 experiment basic idea: - more you believe in May 21, less valuable money delivered after May 21 is - to measure demand for beliefs, we vary stakes, through changing probability decision is executed - use Seventh-day Adventists as controls
93 experiment design: - used BDM mechanism - check for $5 cashable immediately - check for $X cashable in 4 weeks - $X ranged from $ make choice - decision enacted with either 6% prob or 50% prob
94 experiment features: - totally private - decisions not seen by anyone except person handling payments
95 decision sheet:
96 Control group
97 Seventh-day Adventists - believe in imminent return of Christ
98 Seventh-day Adventists - 9 th largest denomination in U.S.
99 Seventh-day Adventists - approached in same way, after services
100 Summary statistics and participant overview
101
102
103
104 FR seem to believe, up to stakes $500
105 SDA show reasonable discount factor (0.71)
106 inelastic demand for beliefs
107 what did FR members think they would do if prediction failed?
108 Imagine you wake up on May 21 st and there are no visible signs that Judgment Day occurred, what percent chance would you then place on the End of the World occurring on October 21st?
109 Even answering admitting fallible?
110 all but 6 answered - 1 blank - 5 May 21 will happen!
111
112 mean: 80.1% significantly different from May 21 belief: z=2.44
113 shows more doubt but
114 modal subject says they will continue to believe 100% even if prediction fails in key ways
115 but a minority do say they will stop believing
116 What did happen?
117 May 21, 2011
118 May 21, 2011 quietly passes
119 May 23, 2011
120 Spiritual judgment occurred. God has judged us all, silently. Through His mercy has spared us Armageddon. The end of the world and Rapture will come quietly on Oct 21, Camping (in national press conference)
121 How did believers adjust?
122 IRB: could not follow members
123 Next best: textual analysis of online message board
124 Message board overview - open to public to read, must join to post - we recorded all messages 1 month before and 1 month following May 21 - RA coded over 5000 messages for content - Analysis only includes users who posted before and after
125
126 flurry of uncertainty following May 21
127
128 alternate dates
129
130 (none prior to May 21)
131 alternate date: typically predicts Rapture within 1 day of post
132 seem hopeful
133 user-level analysis
134
135 Before: 87% strong believers After: 53%
136 Before: 4.5% non-believers After: 11.2%
137 89% continue to believe at least somewhat
138 what about attrition?
139 if we assume all attriters became non-believers: 28.5% non-believers
140 ex-post rationalization? or
141 commitment to believe
142 mean prospective continued belief: 80% (quite similar to observed)
143 word frequency analysis
144
145
146 Official theory: Pre-May 21: Rapture, earthquakes, fire, etc.
147 Official theory: Pre-May 21: Rapture, earthquakes, fire, etc. Post-May 23: spiritual judgment, no Rapture
148 spiritual judgment not even mentioned before May 21
149 other alternate theories were discussed Ex. Matthew 24:36
150 related work
151 Festinger (1957) UFO cult and cognitive dissonance
152 Hader (1983) Nuclear war cult
153 Often barriers to exit high
154 Family Radio had
155 no church
156 no compound
157 members lived normally in community
158 yet still significant attachment to a falsified theory
159 (consistent with what the told us ahead of time)
160 Model
161 religious beliefs in general seem extreme
162 some believe fully in God
163 others think this is crazy
164 and we all have similar evidence (more controversial)
165 colloquially you believe or you don t
166
167
168 What is the probability you think God of taken more broadly, a spiritual higher power exists?
169
170 <Conclusion>
171 even beliefs formed on insufficient evidence seem tough to move
172 the mind seems to commit in advance to many beliefs
173 could help explain other examples of a failure to update
174 a demand for beliefs model can explain extreme religious beliefs generally
175 the supply and demand for beliefs appears to be a strong determinant of human behavior
176 <The End>
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE ECONOMICS OF FAITH: USING AN APOCALYPTIC PROPHECY TO ELICIT RELIGIOUS BELIEFS IN THE FIELD
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE ECONOMICS OF FAITH: USING AN APOCALYPTIC PROPHECY TO ELICIT RELIGIOUS BELIEFS IN THE FIELD Ned Augenblick Jesse M. Cunha Ernesto Dal Bó Justin M. Rao Working Paper 18641 http://www.nber.org/papers/w18641
More informationRegional Variations in Religiosity: A Case Study of the Catholic Church
While members of the same religion often practice their religion in the same way, this is not always the case. Sometimes members of the same religion behave in very different ways depending on whom they
More informationNORTH AMERICAN DIVISION 2004 CONGREGATIONS STUDY. Roger L. Dudley and Gene Heinrich
NORTH AMERICAN DIVISION 2004 CONGREGATIONS STUDY Roger L. Dudley and Gene Heinrich In the autumn of 2004 a survey was sent to a sample of Seventh-day Adventist congregations in the North American Division.
More informationLeaving the Church Why some Seventh-day Adventist members leave the church, and why some come back ANTHONY KENT GENERAL CONFERENCE
Leaving the Church Why some Seventh-day Adventist members leave the church, and why some come back ANTHONY KENT GENERAL CONFERENCE Thanks & Acknowledgements ARTUR STELE, DAVID TRIM, GALINA STELE, LISA
More informationLeaving the Church: Facts and Figures about Retention
Leaving the Church: Facts and Figures about Retention David Trim, Ph.D. Director of Archives, Statistics, and Research General Conference of Seventh-day Adventists First a look at objective data then at
More informationMission and Retention
Mission and Retention Statistics and research data on retention and loss David Trim Director of Archives, Statistics, and Research General Conference of Seventh-day Adventists Retention and non-retention>
More informationCONGREGATIONS ON THE GROW: SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTISTS IN THE U.S. CONGREGATIONAL LIFE STUDY
CONGREGATIONS ON THE GROW: SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTISTS IN THE U.S. CONGREGATIONAL LIFE STUDY The U.S. Congregational Life Survey (USCLS) was a poll of individuals who attend church or other worship facilities
More informationTHE SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTIST CHURCH AN ANALYSIS OF STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND THREATS (SWOT) Roger L. Dudley
THE SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTIST CHURCH AN ANALYSIS OF STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND THREATS (SWOT) Roger L. Dudley The Strategic Planning Committee of the General Conference of Seventh-day Adventists
More informationSummary of Research about Denominational Structure in the North American Division of the Seventh-day Adventist Church
Summary of Research about Denominational Structure in the North American Division of the Seventh-day Adventist Church Surveys and Studies Completed in 1995 by the NAD Office of Information & Research By
More informationCongregational Survey Results 2016
Congregational Survey Results 2016 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Making Steady Progress Toward Our Mission Over the past four years, UUCA has undergone a significant period of transition with three different Senior
More informationMeasuring Pluralism: A Difficult Task
Measuring Pluralism: A Difficult Task Steve Cable examines the data concerning American Christians beliefs about pluralism, the belief that all religions are true and valid ways to know about God, the
More information3. WHERE PEOPLE STAND
19 3. WHERE PEOPLE STAND Political theorists disagree about whether consensus assists or hinders the functioning of democracy. On the one hand, many contemporary theorists take the view of Rousseau that
More informationThis report is organized in four sections. The first section discusses the sample design. The next
2 This report is organized in four sections. The first section discusses the sample design. The next section describes data collection and fielding. The final two sections address weighting procedures
More informationSeptember 11, 1998 N.G.I.S.C. New Orleans Meeting. Within the next 15 minutes I will. make a comprehensive summary of dozens and dozens of research
September, N.G.I.S.C. New Orleans Meeting CHAIRMAN JAMES: Mr. Ladouceur. MR. LADOUCEUR: Within the next minutes I will make a comprehensive summary of dozens and dozens of research that we've conducted
More informationA Climate of Controversy The Danger of Scientific Illiteracy in a Changing World
A Climate of Controversy The Danger of Scientific Illiteracy in a Changing World Presented by Prof. James Wysong, Jr. West Central Florida AMS Local Chapter Hillsborough Community College Don t Believe
More informationGGV Pillar 7: Reasons & Rationalizations
GGV Pillar 7: Reasons & Rationalizations GVV Pillar 7: Reasons & Rationalizations introduces the last principle of Giving Voice to Values (GVV). By anticipating the typical reasons and rationalizations
More informationONWARD ISRAEL ALUMNI BACK HOME: From Engagement to Empowerment
ONWARD ISRAEL ALUMNI BACK HOME: From Engagement to Empowerment September 2016 OVERVIEW OVERVIEW Onward Israel provides young adults between the ages of 19-27 mostly North American college students with
More informationMillennial Young Adults and their Responses to
Leanne Millennial Young Adults and their Responses to Leanne M. Sigvartsen Jan A. Sigvartsen Paul B. Petersen 1 The Beyond Beliefs study undertaken by ClergyEd.com and the Religion and Biblical Languages
More informationNCLS Occasional Paper Church Attendance Estimates
NCLS Occasional Paper 3 2001 Church Attendance Estimates John Bellamy and Keith Castle February 2004 2001 Church Attendance Estimates John Bellamy and Keith Castle February 2004 Introduction The National
More informationResearch Report People Joining the Seventh-day Adventist Church in Pennsylvania and their Experience with the Church
Research Report People Joining the Seventh-day Adventist Church in Pennsylvania and their Experience with the Church By Monte Sahlin and Paul Richardson April 2002 The purpose of this study is to find
More informationAssessment of Common Fund for 2018, incorporating the former How do we decide?
9753 Assessment of Common Fund for 2018, incorporating the former How do we decide? The function of the Common Fund is to be the primary source of funding for the provision of ministry across the Diocese.
More informationCSC290 Communication Skills for Computer Scientists
CSC290 Communication Skills for Computer Scientists Lisa Zhang Lecture 2; Sep 17, 2018 Announcements Blog post #1 due Sunday 8:59pm Submit a link to your blog post on MarkUs (should be operational next
More informationSoul Searching: The Religious and Spiritual Lives of American Teenagers, 2005
Youth Ministry Studies (2005) Soul Searching: The Religious and Spiritual Lives of American Teenagers, 2005 Christian Smith and Melinda Lundquist Denton www.youthandreligion.org The Study: This was the
More informationIn Search Of Belief: Revised Edition By Joan Chittister O.S.B. READ ONLINE
In Search Of Belief: Revised Edition By Joan Chittister O.S.B. READ ONLINE In this revised edition of "In Search of Belief, " Sister Joan Chittister challenges readers to reflect upon whether they truly
More informationFACTS About Non-Seminary-Trained Pastors Marjorie H. Royle, Ph.D. Clay Pots Research April, 2011
FACTS About Non-Seminary-Trained Pastors Marjorie H. Royle, Ph.D. Clay Pots Research April, 2011 This report is one of a series summarizing the findings of two major interdenominational and interfaith
More information16 Free Will Requires Determinism
16 Free Will Requires Determinism John Baer The will is infinite, and the execution confined... the desire is boundless, and the act a slave to limit. William Shakespeare, Troilus and Cressida, III. ii.75
More informationIntroduction to Inference
Introduction to Inference Confidence Intervals for Proportions 1 On the one hand, we can make a general claim with 100% confidence, but it usually isn t very useful; on the other hand, we can also make
More informationSCHOOL OF PRACTICAL AND ADVANCED STUDIES THE NEXT GENERATION BECOME A CHURCH WITH IMPACT! INTRODUCTION TO TAKE YOUR CHURCH S PULSE TOOL
S O P A S SCHOOL OF PRACTICAL AND ADVANCED STUDIES THE NEXT GENERATION INTRODUCTION TO TAKE YOUR CHURCH S PULSE TOOL Take Your Church s Pulse is a diagnostic tool that leads to healthy conversations for
More informationThe World Church Strategic Plan
The 2015 2020 World Church Strategic Plan The what and the why : Structure, Objectives, KPIs and the reasons they were adopted Reach the World has three facets: Reach Up to God Reach In with God Reach
More informationWhile Most Americans Believe in God, Only 36% Attend a Religious Service Once a Month or More Often. by Humphrey Taylor
The Harris Poll #59, October 15, 2003 While Most Americans Believe in God, Only 36% Attend a Religious Service Once a Month or More Often Belief and attendance vary greatly among different segments of
More informationNaturalism vs. Conceptual Analysis. Marcin Miłkowski
Naturalism vs. Conceptual Analysis Marcin Miłkowski WARNING This lecture might be deliberately biased against conceptual analysis. Presentation Plan Conceptual Analysis (CA) and dogmatism How to wake up
More informationOn the Verge of Walking Away? American Teens, Communication with God, & Temptations
On the Verge of Walking Away? American Teens, Communication with God, & Temptations May 2009 1 On the Verge of Walking Away? American Teens, Communication with God, & Daily Temptations Recent studies reveal
More informationAugust Parish Life Survey. Saint Benedict Parish Johnstown, Pennsylvania
August 2018 Parish Life Survey Saint Benedict Parish Johnstown, Pennsylvania Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate Georgetown University Washington, DC Parish Life Survey Saint Benedict Parish
More informationVISIONING TOOL FOR INTERGENERATIONAL MINISTRY
INTRODUCTION Intergenerational ministry, in various forms, has been around the church for a very long time. In Intergenerational Christian Formation: Bringing the Whole Church Together in Ministry, Community
More informationSupporting Info for C060 on (Anti Sexism Stained Glass Ceiling)
Supporting Info for C060 on (Anti Sexism Stained Glass Ceiling) Background: Women have been ordained clergy in The Episcopal Church since 1974 (adopted by Canon at the 65 th General Convention of 1976).
More informationEl Monte Community Assessment. A report by Elder Monte Sahlin Center for Creative Ministry August 2011
El Monte Community Assessment A report by Elder Monte Sahlin Center for Creative Ministry August 2011 1 Who is Monte Sahlin? An ordained Seventh-day Adventist minister for 40 years who has done assessments
More informationOur Hope In Christ's Return
Our Hope In Christ's Return Just over a month ago, we were celebrating what is called Advent season, when we looked forward to Christmas when we worship the birth of Jesus our Redeemer, Immanuel. Christmas
More informationMay Parish Life Survey. St. Mary of the Knobs Floyds Knobs, Indiana
May 2013 Parish Life Survey St. Mary of the Knobs Floyds Knobs, Indiana Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate Georgetown University Washington, DC Parish Life Survey St. Mary of the Knobs Floyds
More informationSurvey of Teens and. Source of Data in This Report
Survey of Teens and Young Adults Mega Study 1 North American Division of the Seventh day Adventist Church Source of Data in This Report A random sample of 500 local congregations in the North American
More informationRamsey s belief > action > truth theory.
Ramsey s belief > action > truth theory. Monika Gruber University of Vienna 11.06.2016 Monika Gruber (University of Vienna) Ramsey s belief > action > truth theory. 11.06.2016 1 / 30 1 Truth and Probability
More informationDerby Diocesan Academies Trust
Member of the Derby Diocesan Academy Trust (DDAT) Company No. 09442311 Derby Diocesan Academies Trust Turnditch CE Primary School January 2016 Contents 1.0 Rationale 2.0 Collective Worship Aims 3.0 Legal
More informationWho Really Uses Christian Media?
Who Really Uses Media? Research Update October 2011 Recently the film Courageous opened as the number four top-grossing movie in the country. The film brought in more than $9 million in gross sales its
More informationGVV Pillar 1: Values. Teaching Notes for GVV Pillar 1: Values - Page 1 of 5
GVV Pillar 1: Values GVV Pillar 1: Values introduces the first principle of Giving Voice to Values (GVV). Citing research, Mary Gentile suggests a small set of values, or hyper- norms, that are universally
More informationAmericans Views of Spiritual Growth & Maturity February 2010
Americans Views of Spiritual Growth & Maturity February 2010 1 Table of Contents Methods... 3 Basic Spiritual Beliefs... 3 Preferences... 3 What happens when we die?... 5 What does it mean to be spiritual?...
More informationStrategic Plan Complexity should not be admired; it should be avoided. Author Unknown
Seventh-day Adventist Church Strategic Plan 2017-2020 Complexity should not be admired; it should be avoided. Author Unknown 1 Complexity should not be admired; it should be avoided. Author Unknown 2 VISION
More informationThe Global Church Member Survey 2018 David Trim
Reaching the World: How did we do? The Global Church Member Survey 2018 David Trim ... lots of data! Results from each division shared with officers Today: just sharing key findings 2013 n = 26,343 in
More informationARAB BAROMETER SURVEY PROJECT ALGERIA REPORT
ARAB BAROMETER SURVEY PROJECT ALGERIA REPORT (1) Views Toward Democracy Algerians differed greatly in their views of the most basic characteristic of democracy. Approximately half of the respondents stated
More informationJournal of Religion & Film
Volume 16 Issue 1 April 2012 Journal of Religion & Film Article 13 5-25-2012 Take Shelter Dereck Daschke Truman State University, Kirksville, Missouri, ddaschke@truman.edu Recommended Citation Daschke,
More informationEND TIMES DAWNING ENDORSEMENTS FOR
ENDORSEMENTS FOR END TIMES DAWNING Steve Ashburn has written a profoundly prescient book for these days so near the return of Christ. End Times Dawning: Get Ready! explores biblical prophecy with concise
More informationTitle: Jeff Jones and David Askneazi, Free Expression on American Campuses Episode: 35
Title: Jeff Jones and David Askneazi, Free Expression on American Campuses Episode: 35 Transcript This is a professional transcript, but it may contain errors. Please verify its accuracy by listening to
More informationMel Gibson s The Passion and Christian Beliefs about the Crucifixion: Two COMPAS/National Post Opinion Surveys
Mel Gibson s The Passion and Christian Beliefs about the Crucifixion: COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research March 7, 2004 Background and Summary Two Polls Intercept Study among Movie-Goers and
More informationBayesian Probability
Bayesian Probability Patrick Maher September 4, 2008 ABSTRACT. Bayesian decision theory is here construed as explicating a particular concept of rational choice and Bayesian probability is taken to be
More informationKJV MINISTERS BIBLE BLACK GENUINE COWHIDE KJV MINISTERS BIBLE BLACK PDF THE KING JAMES BIBLE DEFENDED! - JESUS-IS-SAVIOR.COM
KJV MINISTERS BIBLE BLACK PDF THE KING JAMES BIBLE DEFENDED! - JESUS-IS-SAVIOR.COM CHRISTIAN DENOMINATIONS - BIBLEFACTS.ORG 1 / 6 2 / 6 3 / 6 kjv ministers bible black pdf Resources for Study on the King
More informationRule Rationality: A Synthesis of Behavioral and Mainstream Economics
Rule Rationality: A Synthesis of Behavioral and Mainstream Economics Bob Aumann Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality The Hebrew University, Jerusalem CORE, Universite Catholique de Louvain 9 May
More informationReason and Argument. Richard Feldman Second Edition
Reason and Argument Richard Feldman Second Edition Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England and Associated Companies throughout the world Visit us on the World Wide Web at:
More informationTHE BYLAWS THE CHINESE CHRISTIAN CHURCH OF NEW JERSEY PARSIPPANY, NEW JERSEY. Approved by GA on Oct
THE BYLAWS OF THE CHINESE CHRISTIAN CHURCH OF NEW JERSEY PARSIPPANY, NEW JERSEY Approved by GA on Oct. 21 2007 ORIGINALLY ISSUED: 1975 FIRST REVISION: 1983 SECOND REVISION: 1991 THIRD REVISION: 1999 FOURTH
More informationSPIRITUAL SETUPS ~Presuppositions About God and Us that set us up for differing views about spirituality~
SPIRITUAL SETUPS ~Presuppositions About God and Us that set us up for differing views about spirituality~ The following sets of ideas contain different presuppositions or assumptions that function as foundation
More informationStudying Adaptive Learning Efficacy using Propensity Score Matching
Studying Adaptive Learning Efficacy using Propensity Score Matching Shirin Mojarad 1, Alfred Essa 1, Shahin Mojarad 1, Ryan S. Baker 2 McGraw-Hill Education 1, University of Pennsylvania 2 {shirin.mojarad,
More informationRecoding of Jews in the Pew Portrait of Jewish Americans Elizabeth Tighe Raquel Kramer Leonard Saxe Daniel Parmer Ryan Victor July 9, 2014
Recoding of Jews in the Pew Portrait of Jewish Americans Elizabeth Tighe Raquel Kramer Leonard Saxe Daniel Parmer Ryan Victor July 9, 2014 The 2013 Pew survey of American Jews (PRC, 2013) was one of the
More informationOccasional Paper 7. Survey of Church Attenders Aged Years: 2001 National Church Life Survey
Occasional Paper 7 Survey of Church Attenders Aged 10-14 Years: 2001 National Church Life Survey J. Bellamy, S. Mou and K. Castle June 2005 Survey of Church Attenders Aged 10-14 Years: 2001 National Church
More informationSurvey Report New Hope Church: Attitudes and Opinions of the People in the Pews
Survey Report New Hope Church: Attitudes and Opinions of the People in the Pews By Monte Sahlin May 2007 Introduction A survey of attenders at New Hope Church was conducted early in 2007 at the request
More informationDivine Restraint: An experimental analysis of religious preference and intertemporal discounting
Divine Restraint: An experimental analysis of religious preference and intertemporal discounting Jeremy Thornton, Brock School of Business - Samford University Having, First, gained all you can, and, Secondly
More informationThe Problem of Theodicy and Religious Response to Cancer
Journal of Religion and Health, Vol. 36, No. 1, Spring 1997 The Problem of Theodicy and Religious Response to Cancer VINCENT D. MOSCHELLA, KRISTIN R. PRESSMAN, PETER PRESSMAN, and DAVID E. WEISSMAN ABSTRACT:
More informationPJ Library Family Survey
PJ Library Family Survey November 4, 2016 SECTION 1: FAMILY BACKGROUND WITH PJ LIBRARY Please tell us about your PJ Library subscription. 1. [If using generic link] Is your family currently receiving books
More informationChapter 11. Religion, Education, and Medicine. Religion Education Medicine. McGraw-Hill McGraw-Hill Companies. All Rights Reserved.
Chapter 11 Religion, Education, and Medicine Religion Education Medicine McGraw-Hill 2013 McGraw-Hill Companies. All Rights Reserved. Religion Religion Socially shared and organized ways of thinking, feeling,
More informationMen practising Christian worship
Men practising Christian worship The results of a YouGov Survey of GB adults All figures are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 7,212 GB 16+ adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 23rd - 26th September
More informationNICHOLAS J.J. SMITH. Let s begin with the storage hypothesis, which is introduced as follows: 1
DOUBTS ABOUT UNCERTAINTY WITHOUT ALL THE DOUBT NICHOLAS J.J. SMITH Norby s paper is divided into three main sections in which he introduces the storage hypothesis, gives reasons for rejecting it and then
More informationListening Project 2017 Report to the Congregation August 2017
Listening Project 2017 Report to the Congregation August 2017 Purposes of Listening Project 2017 Affirm Second s strengths Identify near-term opportunities Aid the Pastor Nominating Committee and prospective
More informationSocial Perception Survey. Do people make prejudices based on appearance/stereotypes? We used photos as a bias to test this.
SOCIAL PERCEPTIONS Social Perception Survey Do people make prejudices based on appearance/stereotypes? We used photos as a bias to test this. Randomization Using the master schedule, our group immediately
More informationVideo Reaction. Opening Activity. Journal #16
Justification / explanation Interpretation / inference Methodologies / paradigms Verification / truth / certainty Argument / evaluation Evidence / data / facts / support / proof Limitations / uncertainties
More informationSUMMARIES AND TEST QUESTIONS UNIT 6
SUMMARIES AND TEST QUESTIONS UNIT 6 Textbook: Louis P. Pojman, Editor. Philosophy: The quest for truth. New York: Oxford University Press, 2006. ISBN-10: 0199697310; ISBN-13: 9780199697311 (6th Edition)
More informationI m a Chicago Bulls basketball fan. My hopes were
1 WHEN HOPE SINKS I m a Chicago Bulls basketball fan. My hopes were formed during the Michael Jordan era. We hoped for a championship every year and usually got it until Michael retired the second time.
More informationA Brief History of Scientific Thoughts Lecture 5. Palash Sarkar
A Brief History of Scientific Thoughts Lecture 5 Palash Sarkar Applied Statistics Unit Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata India palash@isical.ac.in Palash Sarkar (ISI, Kolkata) Thoughts on Science 1
More informationPhilosophy 12 Study Guide #4 Ch. 2, Sections IV.iii VI
Philosophy 12 Study Guide #4 Ch. 2, Sections IV.iii VI Precising definition Theoretical definition Persuasive definition Syntactic definition Operational definition 1. Are questions about defining a phrase
More informationThe Realities of Orthodox Parish Life in the Western United States: Ten Simple Answers to Ten Not Too Easy Questions.
By Alexey D. Krindatch (Akrindatch@aol.com) The Realities of Orthodox Parish Life in the Western United States: Ten Simple Answers to Ten Not Too Easy Questions. Introduction This paper presents selected
More informationEpistemic Responsibility in Science
Epistemic Responsibility in Science Haixin Dang had27@pitt.edu Social Epistemology Networking Event Oslo May 24, 2018 I Motivating the problem Examples: - Observation of Top Quark Production in p p Collisions
More informationThe Adventist Mission: A 50-Year Perspective
General statistics compiled by Kathleen Jones; assisted by Carole Proctor Financial statistics compiled by Gina John-Singh Charts 1-7 developed by Carole Proctor, Chart 8 by Joshua Marcoe, and Chart 9
More informationJanuary Parish Life Survey. Saint Paul Parish Macomb, Illinois
January 2018 Parish Life Survey Saint Paul Parish Macomb, Illinois Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate Georgetown University Washington, DC Parish Life Survey Saint Paul Parish Macomb, Illinois
More informationEvolution: The Darwinian Revolutions BIOEE 2070 / HIST 2870 / STS 2871
Evolution: The Darwinian Revolutions BIOEE 2070 / HIST 2870 / STS 2871 DAY & DATE: Wednesday 27 June 2012 READINGS: Darwin/Origin of Species, chapters 1-4 MacNeill/Evolution: The Darwinian Revolutions
More informationAFRICAN CONTINENT. Elizabeth M. Role, PhD. Director of Graduate Studies & Research University of Eastern Africa, Baraton, Kenya
AFRICAN CONTINENT Elizabeth M. Role, PhD Director of Graduate Studies & Research University of Eastern Africa, Baraton, Kenya UNIVERSITY OF EASTERN AFRICA, BARATON SDA CHURCH FOUNTAIN OF KNOWLWDGE UNIVERSITY
More informationSID: So you realized that you changed your prayer and changed your results.
1 Is there a supernatural dimension, a world beyond the one we know? Is there life after death? Do angels exist? Can our dreams contain messages from Heaven? Can we tap into ancient secrets of the supernatural?
More informationProbability Distributions TEACHER NOTES MATH NSPIRED
Math Objectives Students will compare the distribution of a discrete sample space to distributions of randomly selected outcomes from that sample space. Students will identify the structure that emerges
More informationVISIONING TOOL FOR INTERGENERATIONAL MINISTRY
VISIONING TOOL FOR INTERGENERATIONAL MINISTRY For assistance with this tool, contact GenOn Ministries 877.937.2572 info@genonministries.org GenOn Ministries P.O. Box 4, Springdale, PA 15144 877.937.2572
More informationWhat Study Bible Do You Recommend?
Bible - Versions & Translations What Study Bible Do You Recommend? By Dr. Paul M. Elliott From the TeachingtheWord Bible Knowledgebase Today we answer one of our readers and listeners most frequently-asked
More informationIntroduction Questions to Ask in Judging Whether A Really Causes B
1 Introduction We live in an age when the boundaries between science and science fiction are becoming increasingly blurred. It sometimes seems that nothing is too strange to be true. How can we decide
More informationGreater New York Survey of Members
Greater New York Survey of Members Conducted for the Greater New York Conference of the Seventhday Adventist Church by the Center for Creative Ministry Source of Data n Questionnaires were distributed
More informationPray, Equip, Share Jesus:
Pray, Equip, Share Jesus: 2015 Canadian Church Planting Survey Research performed by LifeWay Research 1 Preface Issachar. It s one of the lesser known names in the scriptures. Of specific interest for
More informationFalsification or Confirmation: From Logic to Psychology
Falsification or Confirmation: From Logic to Psychology Roman Lukyanenko Information Systems Department Florida international University rlukyane@fiu.edu Abstract Corroboration or Confirmation is a prominent
More informationTHE ALLYN & BACON GUIDE TO WRITING
THE ALLYN & BACON GUIDE TO WRITING SEVENTH EDITION JOHN D. RAMAGE, JOHN C. BEAN, AND JUNE JOHNSON PART 2: WRITING PROJECTS CHAPTER 13 WRITING A CLASSICAL ARGUMENT Chapter 13 Learning Objectives In this
More informationIraqi Public Favors International Assistance
Iraqi Public Favors International Assistance January 31, 2006 Full Report Questionnaire/Methodology Though many Iraqis are unhappy with the presence of US-led forces, most express strong support for various
More informationAtheism: A Christian Response
Atheism: A Christian Response What do atheists believe about belief? Atheists Moral Objections An atheist is someone who believes there is no God. There are at least five million atheists in the United
More informationRunning Head: PRESIDENTIAL RELIGIOSITY. Presidential Religiosity: Mitt Romney s Mormon faith and his political favorability
1 Running Head: PRESIDENTIAL RELIGIOSITY : Mitt Romney s Mormon faith and his political favorability Spencer Brignac, Thomas Oubre, Lauren Smith, Ambria Washington Louisiana State University 2 Abstract
More informationNATIONAL: U.S. CATHOLICS LOOK FORWARD TO POPE S VISIT
Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll CONTACTS: For commentary on poll results and the pope
More informationTHE AUDIO MINICAST OVERVIEW
SHATTER THE DARKNESS LIVE RADIO BROADCAST THEME FOR THIS WEEK MAY 23RD TO 27TH 2011 'WHERE IS HAROLD CAMPING NOW?' WHERE ARE THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN DECEIVED? RAMIFICATIONS THE AUDIO MINICAST OVERVIEW It is
More informationStewardship, Finances, and Allocation of Resources
Stewardship, Finances, and Allocation of Resources The May 2003 Survey Table of Contents HIGHLIGHTS... i OVERVIEW...ii STEWARDSHIP IN CONGREGATIONS... 1 Approaches to Stewardship... 1 Integrating Stewardship
More informationSurvey of Church Members. Minnesota Conference of the Seventh-day Adventist Church 2006 Center for Creative Ministry
Survey of Church Members Minnesota Conference of the Seventh-day Adventist Church 2006 Center for Creative Ministry Source of Data o A random sample of 34 local churches was selected and telephone interviews
More informationSegment 2 Exam Review #1
Segment 2 Exam Review #1 High School Mathematics for College Readiness (Segment 2) / Math for College Readiness V15 (Mr. Snyder) Student Name/ID: 1. Factor. 2. Factor. 3. Solve. (If there is more than
More informationPrograms RELIGION AND BIBLICAL LANGUAGES. BA: Religion 31
RELIGION AND BIBLICAL LANGUAGES Griggs Hall, Room 110A (616) 471-3177 Fax: (616) 471-6258 religion@andrews.edu http://www.andrews.edu/relg Faculty Keith E. Mattingly, Chair Lael O. Caesar Mark B. Regazzi
More informationQUEBEC CONFERENCE OF SEVENTH-DAY ADVENTISTS ORGANIZING THE SABBATH SCHOOL IN THE LOCAL CHURCH
ORGANIZING THE SABBATH SCHOOL IN THE LOCAL CHURCH The Sabbath School in the local church is a unit of the worldwide Sabbath School system. It is responsible for appointing and training class leaders, developing
More informationFALL 2017 CHURCH SURVEY RESPONSES
FALL 2017 CHURCH SURVEY RESPONSES BACKGROUND In fall 2017 Franklin First UMC created a church-wide congregation survey to gather feedback on satisfaction with current programming. Responses were collected
More information