c Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

Transcription

1 Moral Calculations

2 Moral Calculations Game Theory, Logic, and Human Frailty Lasz16 Mera Translated by Anna C. Gösi-Greguss English Version Edited by David Kramer c Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

3 Illustrations by Mikl6s M. Miltenyi Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Springer-Verlag New Y ork, Inc. in 1998 Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1 st edition 1998 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mer6, Lasz16. Moral calculations : game theory, logic, and human frailty / Uszl6 Mer6. p. cm. "Copernicus imprint." Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Game theory. 2. Thought and thinking. I. Tide. QA269.M DC Manufactured in the United States of America. Printed on acid-free paper ISBN SPIN

4 Preface This book is about rational thinking-something that may, perhaps, not even exist. There are many indicators that human thinking is essentially nonrational, even in those cases where the methods of pure logic can effectively be applied. I addressed this matter in my book Ways of Thinking. The present book does not rely on Ways of Thinking, but rather complements it: Here we are going to discuss thinking from the point of view of John von Neumann's theory of games. I shall not attempt to characterize the mathematical level of this book, because it has none. Here you will find no formulas whatsoever, although you will occasionally meet ideas whose origins are mathematical. To understand the book you will need no mathematics beyond the four basic arithmetical operations. Nevertheless, I do not promise the reader an easy time of it, and I defend myself with the words of Frigyes Karinthy, the father of Hungarian satire: "It's not me that's complicated; what's complicated is what I'm talking about." This book is in the form of an essay. It is intended primarily to be read rather than studied, although parts of it could be taught in a university course. Therefore, I did not stick to the fundamental rules of textbook writing, namely, that the material be easy to learn, easy to teach, and easy to examine on-usually at the expense of being slightly boring. Rather, my aim was to meet the demands of the reader seeking mental adventure. Nevertheless, I found it useful to differentiate between generally accepted scientific theories and facts on the one hand, and my own views on the other. For the former I use the first person plural or passive voice, while for the latter I employ the first person Singular. Although even what is presented as

5 vi Preface science should not be viewed as indisputable, I definitely hope that my opinions will provoke debate and further thought. The book is divided into three parts. The first part introduces the basic concepts of game theory, together with several games and reallife situations that illustrate the theory's ideas and typical approaches to different psychological and moral issues. The second part is probably the most difficult of the three. Here I demonstrate in five different fields of science-mathematics, psychology, evolutionary biology, economics, and quantum physics-the diversity of ways in which the ideas of game theory can manifest themselves. In the third part the lines converge. This part is purely about psychology-about rational thinking in particular-which is not at all the same as logical thinking. I would like to thank Csaba Andor, Laszlo Antal, Eva Banyai, Miklos Barabas, Nora Bede, Aniko Bodi, judit Bokor, Ferenc Brody, Zsuzsa Csanyi, Istvan Czigler, Andrea Dull, Peter Futo, Eva Gartner, Csilla Greguss, janos Herczeg, Monika Holcsa, Gyorgyi Hosszu, Sandor Illyes, Andras joo, Zsuzsa Kaldy, Ildiko Kiraly, Erika Kovacs, Eva Kovacshazy, Kriszta Mady, Csaba Mera, Katalin Mera, Vera Mera, Nora Nadasdy, Balazs Nagy, janos Pataki, Ferenc Pinter, julia Seba, Istvan Siklosi, Endre Somos, Dora Speer, Eszter Szabo, judit Szabo, Peter Tatray; Enika Tegyi, Robert Urban, Zoltan Olkei, Tibor Vamos, Katalin Varga, Zoltan Vassy; and Zsuzsa Votisky for their ideas, remarks, suggestions, and criticism. The preparation of this book was generously supported by grant No. T-006S45 from OTKA to the author. Laszlo Mera Budapest, Hungary

6 Contents Preface Games of Morality 1. Auction and Posing The Dollar Auction Game The Three Critical Points Out of the Party and into the Psych Lab High-Stakes Auctions Dollar Auctions in Everyday Life Dollar Auctions in the Wild Posing for a Random Period 2. The Brute as Hero Dice and the Common Interest A Martian Humankind The Protagonist Appears Game Theory Pure and Mixed Strategies Optimal Mixed Strategies Who Optimizes and Why? 3. The Prisoner's Dilemma Two Logical Solutions On the Nature of Logic Everyday Prisoner's Dilemmas Prisoner's Dilemmas with Many Persons Iterated Prisoner's Dilemmas v

7 viii Contents Axelrod's Competitions The Personality Traits of the Programs Tit for Tat in Sticklebacks Psychological Experiments with the Prisoner's Dilemma The Significance of Phrasing The Golden Rule Logic and the Golden Rule The Categorical Imperative The Categorical Imperative and Diversity The Gift of the Magi The Basic Forms of Two-Person Games with Mixed Motivation 58 Chicken 60 Asymmetric Games 62 The Dollar Auction and Ethical Principles 63 Cooperation and Rationality The Bluff 67 The World of Poker 69 A Simple Poker Model 70 The Evolution of the Poker Face 72 The Poker Model Analyzed 73 Bluff Big or Not at All 76 Bluff as a Cognitive Strategy 77 Nature's Bluffs The Sources of Diversity John von Neumann's Game Theory 83 The Case of the Schizophrenic Snail 84 The Mathematical Background of von Neumann's Theorem 87 The Principle of Rationality 88 Rational Players 89 The Value of the Game 91 Stone-Paper-Scissors 92 Generalizations of von Neumann's Theorem 95 Games with Handicap 98 The Part and the Whole 100

8 Contents ix 7. Competition for a Common Goal 103 Purely Cooperative Games 104 Mutual Fate Control 107 Theoretical Considerations 108 Experimental Evidence 110 Asynchronous Decisions III The Role of Being Informed ll3 The Rationale of Curfews ll4 On the Nature of Psychological Laws ll6 Cooperation by Competition ll7 8. Hawks and Doves ll9 The Theory of Group Selection 121 The Theory of Gene Selection 123 Competition Between the Two Theories 125 The Struggle Between Hawks and Doves 127 Rationality in the Selfish Gene Theory 129 Rationality in Group Selection Theory l30 Complex Strategies l32 9. Socialism and Free Enterprise 135 Economics and Evolution l36 The Invisible Hand l38 Theories of Equilibrium 140 Planned Economies 142 The Diversity of Mixed Economies 145 The Logic of Evolution Games Elementary Particles Play 150 The Dual Nature of Light 152 Two-Slit Experiments 155 If You Ask a Stupid Question Schr6dinger's Equation 159 Probabilistic Frogs 160 Chance as an Organizing Force 163 Searching for the Grand Unified Theory 166 The Great Game of Nature 169

9 x The Psychology of Rationality 11. Loves Me, Loves Me Not... Schrodinger's Cat Digression: "Poetic" Thoughts The Contingency of Human Concepts Stone-Paper-Scissors Redux The Cheating Innkeeper Quasi-rationality Plucking Petals Distancing 12. Rational Irrationality Correct Decisions Reached by Inadequate Methods Fortuities of Consciousness The Methods of Rational Decisions Meditative Techniques The Scientific Foundations of Meditative Techniques Ideomotor Techniques Today Thus, Tomorrow Otherwise Logic and Intuition 13. Collective Rationality Analysis of the Science 84 Game Outcome of the Million Dollar Game The Hidden Aim of the Game The Hiding Lottery The Smallest Number Wins Game The Means of Collective Rationality 14. The Heterogeneity of Human Thought Logically Isomorphic Tasks On the Role of Rationality Descartes's Error Where Does Rationality Reside in Us? Games People Play Further Aspects of Games 15. There Are Many Ways to Nirvana The Nature of Rational Cognition The Nature of Mystical Cognition Contents

10 Contents Rationality as a Technique of Distancing Beyond Rationality The Two Components of Thinking Game as Essence Nirvana References and Further Reading Index xi