Reflections on Religion, Identity, Crisis and War: New Theory and Data Patrick James University of Southern California
Outline Religion, IR and CP Theorizing and Hypotheses RCS Dataset Final Thoughts
Religion, IR and CP Interest in religion and politics is on the rise Religion and IR section founded in ISA just a few years ago Rising concerns about religious extremism in the world But also interest in potential positive role Key gap: data for systematic analysis to assess role of religion
Theorizing and Hypotheses Religious beliefs come in packages of essential ethics and worldviews Religion is like ideology functional form Explains economic and political life Supplies standards for evaluation Provides identity Prescribes some degree of action Society will reflect values systems of principal religions
Theorizing and Hypotheses Democracy Proposition: States with demographics favoring a more authoritarian religion are less likely to be democratic than otherwise. Wealth Proposition: States dominated by religions favoring economic freedom (including irreligion) are wealthier than otherwise. Conflict Proposition: States with different religious demographics experience conflict at different rates.
RCS Dataset RCS (N = 6,721,574; 1800-2010) on deposit with ARDA Davis Brown and Patrick James as co-investigators http://www.thearda.com/archive/files/descriptions/brown. asp
RCS Dataset RCS meets four needs Annual observations Back to at least 1900 and even 1800 Digitized data Nuanced coverage
RCS Direct Observation Sources
RELIGIOUS Christian Christian Syncretic Jewish Mandaean Muslim Muslim Syncretic Zoroastrian Bahai Jain Sikh Hindu Buddhist Buddhist Syncretic Confucianist Shintoist Taoist Chinese Folk Religionist NOT RELIGIOUS Indigenous New Religionist Not Religious Unsp. Atheist Other Religionist
Christian Christian Unspecified Catholic Protestant (Broad) Protestant (Narrow) Quasi-Protestant Orthodox Other Non-Liminal Christian Liminal Christian
Christian Catholic Roman Catholic Latin Rites Non-Latin Rites Other Catholic
Christian Protestant (Broad) Protestant (Narrow) Protestant Unspecified Lutheran Reformed Anabaptist-Brethren-Pietist Baptist Adventist Wesleyan Multi-Denominational Other Protestant Quasi-Protestant Anglican Pentecostal
Christian Orthodox Orthodox Unsp. Oriental Orthodox Eastern Orthodox
Christian Liminal Christian Liminal Christian Unspecified Extra-Canonical Christian Mormon Other Extra-Canonical Christian Non-Trinitarian Christian Jehovah s Witness Unitarian Other Non-Trinitarian Christian Other Liminal Christian
Muslim Muslim Unspecified Sunni Shia Khariji (Ibadi) Other Non-Liminal Muslim Liminal Muslim
Muslim Muslim Sunni Shia Sunni Unspecified Twelver Hanafi 12er Unsp. Maliki Jafari Shafii Batini Hanbali Ismaili (Sevener) Other Sunni Zaydi Other Shia
Muslim Liminal Muslim Druze Ahmadi
Buddhist Buddhist Unspecified Theravada Mahayana Tibetan Other Buddhist
Indigenous Indigenous Unspecified Animist Shamanist Other Indigenous
Table 3. Logit regression of MID occurrence on religious demographics in dyad-year, 1946-2010 Variable Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Lower Christian pct -.0088** in dyad (.0027) Lower Muslim pct.0012 in dyad (.0043) Lower Buddhist Complex.0205** pct in dyad (.0065) Lower Not Religious pct.0285** in dyad (.0090) [unreported intra-regional controls all strongly positive & significant] Constant -6.2693*** -6.4554*** -6.4619*** -6.4877*** (.1294) (.1184) (.1128) (.1103) Observations 643,234 634,407 642,637 632,021 Clusters 16,263 16,082 16,263 15,934 * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<.001
Final Thoughts RCS can be used to test state-level propositions about IR and CP of great interest regime type, wealth and conflict Results for Conflict Proposition serve as starting point for discussion of global and regional patterns RCS can be integrated with standard research designs in IR and CP Future priority RCS and the study of civil strife