A Major Shift in the Political Landscape Graphs for the report on the April 12 National Survey May 12
Methodology National Survey April 5, 12 2, national face-to-face interviews: 5 interviews in each of the following regions: Baghdad, South, West, and Kurdistan national results weighted representatively Margin of error +/- 2.2 percent on full sample, +/- 4.4 percent on regional samples; +/- 2.9 on total Non- Kurdistan sample The Kurdistan region sample reflects updated population estimates increasing Dohuk to 24 percent of the region Page 1
A significant positive shift in the country mood Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction 6 45 5 5 5 U.S. Withdrawal 48 4 44 41 41 37 44 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 2
8 Only Kurdistan sees a drop in right direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? from Right Wrong Oct 11 +11-6 +1 +5 +23 - +19-1 -21 +24 6 4 48 5 44 35 65 32 35 58 26 64 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 3
Perceptions of an improving economy help positive mood Would you say Iraq s economy right now is strong or weak? Strong Weak 6 46 55 49 U.S. Withdrawal 52 4 38 34 33 34 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 4
Positive mood brings significant jump in Maliki job approval 6 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-maliki is doing as prime minister? Approve Disapprove 58 54 54 53 U.S. Withdrawal 53 4 4 4 39 34 44 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 5
1 8 6 4 Maliki job approval up across regions and voter groups Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-maliki is doing as prime minister? approve 53 44 57 39 83 16 Approve 3 64 Disapprove Oct. 11 +19 +12 +34 +11 +1 +11 +7 +32 +14 87 1 17 8 Total Baghdad South West K'stan INA voters 99 1 Da'wa voters 75 72 23 Sadr voters 28 ISCI voters Page 6
6 Significant jump in Maliki favorable ratings Now, I d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. 47 47 % Favorable % Unfavorable 51 49 U.S. Withdrawal 45 4 41 34 34 31 41 Nov-1 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Page 7
Maliki favorability dramatically improves among base Δ favorable 1 % Favorable % Unfavorable Oct 11 +14 +13 +28 +4-1 + +12-3 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8 45 54 41 35 73 17 21 3 58 78 66 23 14 67 5 76-1 Total Baghdad South West K'stan Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Page 8
Maliki has strongest rating of non-kurd pols Non-K stan 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8-1 Now, I d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY) Δ favorable 52 48 35 33 33 32 31 48 48 % Favorable % Unfavorable Oct 11 +17 +7 +7 +8-2 +6 N/A -5* +2-1 1 57 24 13 17 18 17 5 53 59 72 73 Maliki Sadr Jaafari Hakim Allawi Nujaifi Amiri Mahdi Hashemi Mutlaq * Last asked in November 1 Page 9
6 4 Maliki s favorability rises above Sadr s non-k stan only Now, I d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. 45 43 Maliki - % Favorable 46 35 39 Sadr - % Favorable 35 U.S. Withdrawal 52 4 41 48 Nov-1 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Page 1
Maliki improves across all issues; outperforms Da wa vote For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-hakim; or Muqtada al-sadr? (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY) More interested in power than helping Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi Improving security Improving basic services Can end sectarianism Fights corruption Creating jobs Can bring political stability Can unite Iraq Acting like a dictator Cares about people like you Helping the poor 27 22 22 34 32 32 3 29 39 37 49 2 1 1 5 7 3 5 6 4 3 5 15 12 19 16 17 23 3 12 14 8 47 38 24 25 34 23 26 28 16 31 26 24 21 21 25 19 21 22 21 15 19 Maliki Jul 11 +22 + +11 N/A +15 +13 +14 +5 N/A +8 +9 Allawi Jul 11-6 -6-8 N/A -1-5 -6-7 N/A -6-4 4 6 8 1 Da wa non-k stan vote: 26% INA non-k stan vote: 14% Page 11
Maliki acting like a dictator non-kurdistan For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-hakim; or Muqtada al-sadr? (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY) Acting like a dictator 8 Maliki 6 64 4 27 14 Total non-kurdistan Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Page 12
Iraqis looking for a strong leader, despite drawbacks I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Statement 1: It is more important to have a strong leader to keep Iraq stable, even if that means giving up some freedoms. Statement 2: It is more important to ensure social and political freedoms in Iraq, even if that means some instability. 1 8 6 74 73 8 82 77 83 4 14 16 13 Total Baghdad South West K'stan Shia Non-Kurd Sunni 8 45 28 15 48 7 23 Kurd Page 13
Significant increase in Da wa support Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref 3 U.S. Withdrawal 1 22 22 16 8 9 6 8 6 5 22 21 16 18 14 12 1 13 11 8 1 1 7 6 4 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 14
3 Da wa s growth even stronger among likely voters Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. Δ likely voters Oct 11 +8-1 -1-2 -2 -- -- -- 3 First bar = Total Second bar = Likely voters 22 1 12 12 12 1 13 11 1 5 6 6 4 2 2 Da'wa INA Sadr IFND ISCI NRT (No vote) (Und/ref) Page 15
3 Da wa separates from other parties in South, Baghdad Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. Islamic Da'wa Party Iraqi National Accord Sadr Trend ISCI IFND Δ Oct. 4 11 +4-4 -- +1-1 +15-3 -3-3 +1 -- -- +2-1 -1 38 27 23 1 16 15 13 9 9 2 6 5 1 5 1 Baghdad South West 16 Page 16
Negative mood of country intensifies in Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY) Right direction Wrong direction 8 67 64 6 4 5 37 52 37 47 4 25 26 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 17
Getting better or worse in Iraq Kurdistan only Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (KURDISTAN ONLY) Water supply Electricity supply Security Housing Development of the oil industry Sectarianism Distribution of oil revenues Political instability Job opportunities Corruption Worse Better 7 89 15 8 38 56 43 48 47 28 6 28 61 26 63 27 79 17 79 15-1 -8-6 -4-4 6 8 1 better Oct. 11 +12 +18 +4-15 n/a -6 n/a -16 +5-4 Page 18
Yet majority still sees Kurdistan heading in right direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY) Right direction Wrong direction 1 8 85 72 74 78 65 6 4 3 21 22 15 9 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 19
1 8 Favorability of Kurdish parties improves Kurdistan only % Favorable % Unfavorable Δ favorable Oct 11 +1 +8 +18 +8 +13 6 4 - -4-6 -8 59 55 24 22 39 3 26 33 37 31-1 KDP PUK Goran KIU KOMAL Page
8 6 4 - -4-6 -8-1 Kurdish leaders remain popular in Kurdistan Now, I d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (KURDISTAN ONLY) Δ favorable % Favorable % Unfavorable Oct 11 +17 +4 n/a +15 1 66 65 64 16 18 21 Talabani Massoud Barzani Nechirvan Barzani Mustafa 41 31 Page 21
Kurdistan vote stable, with PUK drop Kurdistan vote** Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (KURDISTAN ONLY) KDP PUK Goran Movement KIU Und/DK/Ref 5 4 37 41 44 42 3 1 27 28 18 21 14 15 12 14 12 12 9 9 4 2 4 5 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 **Vote totals reflect updated population distribution data Page 22
Δ from Kurdistan divided by governorate Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (KURDISTAN ONLY) KDP PUK Goran 1 Oct 11 +4-5 -- -9-14 +12 +4 +5 +1 8 84 6 4 48 44 19 1 9 13 12 Dohuk Erbil Sulaymaniyah 24% 35% 41% Page 23
Jobs and services continue to be top concerns Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address. Jobs and unemployment Basic services like electricity and water Security Corruption High prices Infrastructure development Education Political instability Sectarianism 1 8 6 5 17 23 27 42 55 Oct. 11-4 +7 -- -7 +7 +1-1 -2 -- 4 6 Page 24
Jobs a concern across all regions, services in South Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address. Jobs and unemployment Basic services Corruption Security Baghdad West South K'stan 51 47 62 58 31 29 71 6 31 19 1 54 28 47 19 9 4 6 8 Page 25
Perception of jobs and electricity remain extremely weak Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY) Security Sectarianism Water supply Development of the oil industry Housing Interfence of countries in Iraq's internal affairs Political instability Distribution of oil revenues Corruption Electricity supply Job opportunities Worse Better 42 56 42 47 5 44 44 37 62 31 65 25 7 21 68 19 76 18 77 16 89 1 better Oct. 11 +19 +9-8* n/a -8 +13-1 n/a +6-4 +1 * Last asked in November 1-1 -8-6 -4-4 6 8 1 Page 26
1 Electricity supply varies by region; worst in South Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (ELECTRICITY SUPPLY) Better Worse Oct 11-1 -- -22 +18 -- -1 +9-11 +18-18 8 6 69 64 92 68 8 4 25 24 23 15 6 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 27
1 Sunnis most pessimistic about country direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? Right Wrong Oct 11 +11-6 +16-12 +15-9 -18 +24 8 6 4 48 44 6 66 59 32 26 3 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Page 28
Security and jobs concerns dominate among Sunnis Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address. Non-Kurd Sunni Shia Kurd Sunni Oct. 11 Security 11 23 48 +3 Jobs and unemployment 47 57 56-13 Basic services Corruption 11 18 22 31 47 54 +14-17 4 6 Page 29
Majority of Sunnis (and Kurds) see sectarianism worsening Please tell me if you think sectarianism is getting better or worse in Iraq. (WORSE ONLY) 8 Shia worse Non-Kurd Sunni worse Kurd worse 71 6 47 52 56 58 61 4 28 27 36 36 36 36 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Page 3
A Sunni majority now see Iraq as a divided country I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Statement 1: Iraq is mostly a divided country. Statement 2: Iraq is mostly a unified country. 8 Mar 11 +12-2 +6 +1 +29-15 +1 -- 6 4 35 56 23 68 58 38 53 26 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Page 31
Worries about Maliki power grab among Sunnis and Kurds 8 Do you believe that al-maliki has too much power, just the right amount, or not enough power? too much Too much power Just the right amount Not enough Mar. 11 +1 +5 +6 +43 6 69 58 4 46 41 36 32 14 14 17 7 12 Total Shia non-kurd Sunni Kurd 23 Page 32
Sunnis see Maliki as power-grabbing; lay blame I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Statement 1: As prime minister, Nouri al-maliki's priority has been to maintain order and security. Statement 2: As prime minister, Nouri al-maliki's priority has been to consolidate his power. Statement 1: Members of parliament are more to blame for the current political crisis. Statement 2: Prime Minister al- Maliki is more to blame for the current political crisis. 8 6 4 51 37 68 22 3 61 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni 9 66 35 46 46 37 14 68 Kurd Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni 54 24 Kurd Page 33
Sunnis see Maliki interested in power, acting like dictator For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-hakim; or Muqtada al-sadr? (NON-KURDSITAN ONLY) Maliki Others/all/none/DK 1 More interested in preserving his own power than helping the people Acting like a dictator 8 86 6 4 74 53 47 59 41 26 14 Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Page 34
Hashemi case divisive; contributes to Sunni concern For each one, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event. 8 6 58 79 69 Approve Filing charges against Vice President Tareq al-hashemi Disapprove Kurdish leaders allowing Vice President Tareq al-hashemi to stay in Kurdistan 59 76 64 4 29 14 15 39 37 29 14 23 4 39 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Page 35
8 Most Sunnis see judicial independence worsening Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. Independence of Iraq s judges and courts Better Worse 6 58 61 56 4 45 41 29 21 26 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Page 36
Sunnis skeptical about Iraq s democratic credentials I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Statement 1: Iraq today is a real democracy. Statement 2: Iraq today is not a real democracy. Oct 11 +2-1 +13-1 -4 +6-41 +28 8 6 4 75 59 45 45 49 33 32 12 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Page 37
8 Sunnis strongly feel Allawi does not have enough power Do you believe that Ayad Allawi has too much power, just the right amount, or not enough? not enough Too much power Just the right amount Not enough Mar. 11 +1-9 +7 +32 6 73 4 42 36 28 3 11 13 4 13 1 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd 49 Page 38
1 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8-1 Maliki s favorability jumps among Disaffected Shia Now, I d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (DISAFFECTED SHIA ONLY) Δ favorable 62 55 18 32 % Favorable % Unfavorable Oct 11 +1 +14-17 +6 +9-1 -32-6 43 37 41 45 18 15 1 1 54 74 88 89 Sadr Maliki Jaafari Hakim Nujaifi Allawi Hashemi Mutlaq Page 39
4 3 1 4 8 7 7 Maliki support jumps, Sadr drops among disaffected Shia Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (DISAFFECTED SHIA ONLY) Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref 25 15 15 14 5 11 9 9 29 18 12 22 4 6 U.S. Withdrawal 29 17 15 15 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 7 7 Page 4
Maliki improves on key issues Disaffected Shia For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-hakim; or Muqtada al-sadr? (DISAFFECTED SHIA ONLY) Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi Improving security 59 3 16 14 8 Maliki Jul 11 +23 Sadr Jul 11-4 Improving basic services 5 3 16 11 +17 +4 Creating jobs 36 5 25 27 7 +15 +5 Helping the poor 28 6 36 1 +9 +13 Cares about people like you 23 12 32 27 6 +5 +8 4 6 8 1 Page 41
Openness to opposition group with alternative proposals Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event. A group of political parties declaring themselves as opposition within the Council of Representatives and proposing policy alternatives different from those set forth by the government 8 6 68 Approve Disapprove 76 8 58 4 46 34 21 21 16 12 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 42
Opposition actions looking for watchdogs, alternatives Imagine that certain members of the CoR made an announcement declaring that they are forming an opposition group within the Council of Representatives. For each action, please tell me how it would make you feel towards this group -- would it make you feel much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, just a little more favorable, or no more favorable? Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable Closely monitor the govt's actions and make public missteps, bad policies, or corrupt practices. Propose alternative policies for creating jobs, providing basic services, and fighting corruption. Hold a monthly question and answer session with government ministers to hold them accountable. To create more jobs, propose a 5-point economic plan that shows specific steps the gov t needs to take. Weekly media briefings to discuss what the government did and what were its successes and failures. Conduct a listening tour to hear concerns and then present those concerns & solutions to the government. A series of public meetings to listen to people s concerns and provide the gov t with policy alternatives. Organize a group to monitor gov t actions and make public missteps, bad policies, or corrupt practices. To end pol. divisions, propose a 5-point reconciliation plan that shows steps the gov t needs to take. Hold a series of public debates between government opposition leaders so citizens hear opposing views. 69 63 63 63 63 62 61 57 57 55 89 88 86 85 85 87 85 86 82 81 4 6 8 1 Page 43
Opposition actions would likely increase support Assuming an opposition group did some of the things you just heard, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for members of this group in the next election? More likely Less likely 8 6 66 79 71 4 53 41 27 15 17 29 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 44
Significant shift in Kurdistan s perception of Iraq s direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY) Right direction Wrong direction 8 67 64 6 4 5 37 52 37 47 4 25 26 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 45
Kurdistan now has doubts about Iraqi democracy I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Statement 1: Iraq today is a real democracy. Statement 2: Iraq today is not a real democracy. 8 Oct. 11 +2-1 +4-1 +18-13 -5 +2-38 +27 6 69 65 4 45 45 44 48 52 26 3 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 46
Majority still see Kurdistan heading in right direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY) Right direction Wrong direction 1 8 85 72 74 78 65 6 4 3 21 22 15 9 Nov-1 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Page 47
Kurdistan most supportive of more autonomous regions Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event. Leaders from Anbar, Diyala, and Salahaddin asking for the establishment of an autonomous region for their governorate 1 Approve Disapprove 8 6 4 82 82 67 59 58 39 27 11 17 19 Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Page 48
Jobs and corruption concerns dominate in Kurdistan Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address. Jobs and unemployment Corruption Security Basic services Baghdad West South Kurdistan 51 47 62 58 31 19 1 54 28 47 19 9 31 29 71 6 4 6 8 Page 49
Corruption and jobs continues to worsen in Kurdistan Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (KURDISTAN ONLY) Water supply Electricity supply Security Housing Development of the oil industry Sectarianism Distribution of oil revenues Political instability Job opportunities Corruption Worse Better 7 89 15 8 38 56 43 48 47 28 6 28 61 26 63 27 79 17 79 15-1 -8-6 -4-4 6 8 1 better Oct. 11 +12 +18 +4-15 n/a -6 n/a -16 +5-4 Page 5
Barzani/KDP strong on jobs, weak on corruption For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-maliki; Nechirvan Barzani*; Barham Salih; or Nawshirwan Mustafa? (KURDISTAN ONLY) N. Barzani* Maliki All/none/other/DK/ref Mustafa Salih Making Kurdistan stronger Improving security Creating jobs Can bring political stability Bringing independence to Kurdistan Cares about people like you Uniting Iraq Ending sectarianism Fights corruption Improving basic services Helping the poor 43 39 4 33 35 34 26 33 31 38 36 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 23 3 1 25 32 29 38 26 32 52 3 19 21 11 23 9 12 12 6 7 12 18 14 19 24 17 19 4 16 24 22 31 3 4 6 8 1 KDP Kurdistan vote: 42% PUK Kurdistan vote: 21% * Before April 12, asked Massoud Barzani; April 12 onward, asked Nechirvan Barzani Page 51
1 8 6 4 - -4-6 -8-1 Kurdish leaders ratings improve Kurdistan only Now, I d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with 1 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 5 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (KURDISTAN ONLY) Δ favorable % Favorable % Unfavorable Oct 11 +17 +4 n/a +15 66 65 64 16 18 21 Talabani M. Barzani N. Barzani N. Mustafa 41 31 Page 52
Favorability of Kurdish parties also improves K stan only Δ favorable 1 8 % Favorable % Unfavorable Oct 11 +1 +8 +18 +8 +13 6 4 - -4-6 -8 59 55 24 22 39 3 26 33 37 31-1 KDP PUK Goran KIU KOMAL Page 53