GWS Analysis Militancy in Southern Philippines: Discerning trends regarding the type of attacks prosecuted Summary The case of jihadist militancy in Southern Philippines came to worldwide media attention with the recent battle between IS-linked militants and army troops for Marawi, although the problem has been ongoing for decades. This paper presents an analysis of incidents linked to jihadist extremism between 2015-2017 trends in jihadist militant activity and identifies trends based on type and geographical distribution. The results indicate that there has been an increase in activity as well as attempts by militant elements to expand into new territories. Introduction On 23 May 2017 Philippine forces launched a raid in Marawi in the Southern Mindanao region after receiving information regarding the presence of Isnilon Hapilon, a leader of the Islamist militant group Aby Sayyaf and Maute Islamist group formations. A large number of heavily armed militants attacked Marawi and took over parts of the city. The black and white flag of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was hung from buildings, a testamentto both Maute s and Abu Sayyaf s devotion to global jihad as they had both pledged allegiance to ISIS in the previous year. In recent months, further indications of direct links between the militant factions of the Middle East and in Southern Philippines have emerged. In recent reports information was revealed regarding transfer of funds from ISIS in Syria to Mindanao militants in the period leading up to the Marawi attack. Furthermore, during the ongoing battles in the Marawi area bodies of militants identified as Middle East nationals were found. In response to the sudden influx of militants in the city the army was mobilized and initiated an immediate major operation to shore up the region and push back against the jihadist assault. This was followed by months of heavy clashes in Marawi as the armed forces were forced into a close quarters battle as they took control over the area building by building. On 17 October president Duterte formally announced victory in Marawi as only a few dozen militants remained in the area. Reliable figures concerning the casualties from the siege in Marawi is not readily available, but it is estimated that the total number of fatalities may exceed 1500, including nearly 1000 militants. With the assault on Marawi the issue of islamist militancy in the south of the Philippines was briefly elevated into the international media spotlight. However the events track their roots back through decades of insurgency in the region. This study aims at providing insight regarding the activities of these Islamist militant groups from the beginning of 2015 right up to the invasion of Marawi on 23 May 2017. The main focus will be to discern trends regarding the type of attacks prosecuted, the intensity of operations and the geographical distribution of related incidents. GWS Production AB Ideon Gateway Scheelevägen 27 223 63 Lund Sweden www.globalwarningsystem.com
Background on Islamist militant groups in southern Philippines Insurgent activity linked to the Muslim Moro population of southern Philippines, originating in ambitions of establishing a separate state has been ongoing since the late 1960 s, and have since then resulted in at least 100.000 deaths. In recent decades, the involved militant movements have splintered in several ways, and some factions have turned toward a hardline Wahhabi Islamist doctrine. Moro Islamic Liberation Front The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was founded in 1977 and is active in the mainly Muslim southern region of Mindanao. The group was founded by a number of members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) who wanted to pursue a separatist campaign with a more Islamic focus. MILF escalated their activity significantly following a peace agreement signed in 1996 between MNLF and the government, which was unpopular in the Mindanao region, and an all-out war followed in 2000-2001. Currently there is an ongoing peace process between MILF and the government and violent incidents involving the group are scarce. An anomalous incident took place in January of 2015 when a clash between security forces and MILF in Maguindanao led to over 50 casualties. Another unusual incident occurred in late December 2016 when rival groups within MILF clashed in Banisilan leaving at least 15 dead. Recently MILF has taken steps to distance themselves ideologically from outright jihadist groups in the region. Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) was formed in 2010 as a splinter group from MILF by members who held a stricter view of Islam influenced by Wahhabism. The breakaway group also disagreed with compromises on behalf of the MILF leadership regarding the perceived goal of a separate islamist state in Mindanao. Abu Sayyaf The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) was formed in 1991 and like MILF it was created by former members of the MNLF. From early on the group was heavily influenced by Al-Qaeda including a personal relationship between Abubakar Janjalani (founder of ASG) and Usama bin Laden. Compared to the earlier groups they have stood out in their particular targeting of civilian, often Christian people. The largest attack attributed to ASG is the Superferry 14 bombing which took place in Manila bay in 2004 and left over 100 fatalities. In June 2014 ASG pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The group uses piracy as way to fund its activities. Ansar Khalifa Philippines Ansar Khalifa Philippines (AKP), also called Ansar al-khilafa (Supporters of the Caliphate) is a relatively new faction which first gained attention when they declared allegiance to ISIS in 2014. The group is thought to be based in the provinces South Cotabato and Sarangani. There have been indications that members of AKP has been involved in a supporting role in the Marawi siege. The group is well known for a failed attempt to carry out a bombing near the US embassy in Manila in December 2016. Maute Maute is an Islamist militant group founded in 2012 by former members of MILF aiming to pursue a more radical Islamist agenda. The group is active in the Mindanao region. It is led by several members of the Maute family, and first came into the public eye when they bombed a night club in Cagayan de Oro in 2013. Earlier this year the group made headlines worldwide after the siege of Marawi in Mindanao. Maute itself has along with several other groups in the Philippines pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). According to intelligence material the group has the most well-trained and disciplined fighting members among the pro-is outfits in the region and played a leading role on behalf of the militants involved in the operations in Marawi. GWS Production AB Ideon Gateway Scheelevägen 27 223 63 Lund Sweden www.globalwarningsystem.com
Methodology For this study a compilation of all incidents related to militancy that was recorded by GWS events database was made. All incidents that were clearly not related to Islamist militancy, mainly those relating to communist rebel group NPA were removed. A statistical analysis of these individual incidents was conducted where factors such as type of event, number of casualties and location were taken into account. This statistical data then allowed to make a deeper analysis of trends related to jihadism and militancy in the region during this period. Note that for 2017 this study only includes the period from 1 January to the start of the Marawi siege on 23 May, and all comparison of the year-for-year statistics presented here should take this into account. Disclaimer This study should not be interpreted as a complete dataset over all cases of Islamist Data on incidents Number of incidents 2015 (52 incidents) Number of incidents 2015 (52 incidents in total) militant violence in the Philippines, we are however confident that it constitutes a useful source for extrapolating general trends on the subject. Information regarding details such as casualty figures in incidents is often unreliable. GWS style of reporting is based on producing and sending out alerts and verified information as soon as possible, and not primarily focused on keeping the app user up to date on such information unless it directly impacts their security. Therefore the statistics in this paper on the number of casualties related to the Islamist insurgency should not be considered an exact number, but rather an indication of the general trend of hostilities in the region. During the study we also noted that for a number of incidents casualties among security forces were reported while those among militants were not. This is likely due to sources on the ground being unable to access that information. The specific statistics for casualty distribution should be interpreted with this in mind. Number of incidents 2016 (95 incidents in total) Number of incidents 1 Jan. to 23 May 2017 (68 incidents) Based on the data available concerning reported incidents during the period of this study it is foremost noteworthy that there was a steady increase from September to December 2016, and that the number has remained high, above 12 per month in 2017. Notable spikes in the number also occurred in February, July and August 2016.
Geographical analysis With the geographical distribution of incidents related to jihadism the vast majority of recorded cases have taken place in the western half of Mindanao and in Sulu Archipelago. Furthermore, a few significant hotspots of militant activity can be discerned. Below is a list of areas along with details regarding militant activity. Note that this report only includes incidents for 2017 between 1 January and 25 May, when the assault on Marawi began. Maguindanao/Cotabato located east of Cotabato City Jolo Island Basilan Island Several minor hotspots with an increased concentration of militancy, although in lower numbers than those above were also located: Zamboanga/Zamboanga del Norte region Tacurong City and surrounding region Lanao del Sur Bohol island, Cebu province Tawi-Tawi region of Sulu archipelago Maguindanao/Cotabato This region encompasses Midsayap in the north; Datu Odin and Shariff Aguak in the west; Ampatuan in the south; Pikit and Sultan Sumagka in the east. The number of recorded incidents are 8 in 2015, 13 in 2016 and 11 in 2017. BIFF is mostly active in this area. Jolo Island Jolo Island has seen high militant activity, with 13 cases in 2015, 21 cases in 2016 and 4 in 2017. Around 60 percent of incidents recorded occurred in the Patikul area. The group primarily active there is ASG. Most incidents were clashes between militants and security forces. Basilan Island Like Jolo, Basilan is a stronghold for ASG militants. There were 9 cases in 2015, 16 cases in 2016 and 12 in 2017. Incidents have been spread across many parts of the island and were mostly clashes following militant attacks on security forces or military operations. Like in Jolo the number of attacks on civilian targets is low, likely due to the islands being important bases of ASG and they are wary of eroding their support among the local populace. Zamboanga/Zamboanga del Norte There were 3 recorded cases in the region in 2015 and 7 in 2017. No dominant group affiliation has been identified. The most serious attack took place in the waters to the east of Zamboanga in January 2017 when 8 people were killed during a pirate attack by ASG militants. A bomb attack also occurred in a bar in Zamboanga City in January 2015, causing one death and 30 injuries. Tacurong City and surrounding region There were a series of attacks (4 in 2015, 2 in both 2016 and 2017) in Tacurong and surrounding areas including Isulan, President Quirino, Esperanza, Polomolok and Tulunan. It is suspected that BIFF was responsible for the majority of these attacks. Lanao del Sur Parts of Lanao del Sur has seen militant activity, much that have been linked to Maute. While there was only one incident in 2015 the number increased to 9 in 2016 and 5 2017. Most Incidents have been recorded in Butig and Marawi. Of special note is a series of clashes in November and December of 2016 when militants temporarily seized control of government buildings in Butig and raised the flag of the Islamic State, drawing similarities with later events in Marawi. Bohol island, Cebu province There were a series of armed clashes between security forces and ASG militants in mid 2017 on Bohol Island, which is located north of Mindanao. These incidents may indicate an attempt by the militant group to expand their activities. Sulu archipelago excluding Jolo and Basilan islands This is the primary area of operations for ASG pirates. There have regular hijackings of vessels and kidnappings of both fishermen and cargo ship crew. Many incidents have occurred near Tawi-Tawi island.
Map of militant activity hotspots in Mindanao Types of incidents After an initial review and interpretation of the material on incidents within the scope of this study the following classification of incidents have been made. Map of militant activity hotspots in Sulu Archipelago Civilian target attack(cta) Any attack that target civilian areas Military target attack(mta) Hostile action that targets security forces and is initiated by militants Clash Hostile action that seems to be the result of army/militant encounters or military operations Attack on authorities(aoa) Usually attacks targeting government officials or local leadership figures Kidnapping and piracy(kp) Year CTA MTA Clash AOA KP 2015 18 11 18 2 4 2016 27 22 31 3 14 2017 12 13 30 2 12 The types of incidents showed the largest increase are clashes and cases of kidnapping and piracy, which have accumulated nearly equal numbers of cases during all of 2016 and in the pre-marawi period of 2017. Distribution of casualties Outlier incidents There were several noteworthy incidents that occurred outside the main areas of militant activity, but warrants mention due to their particular nature. A bomb attack took place in the town of Hilongos which is located on the western coast of Leyte and across the water from Bohol. The attack caused 27 injuries and was claimed by Maute. The number casualties related to the insurgency has increased along with the number of attacks. The number of reported casualties including both deaths and injuries from the material of this study is shown below. On 21 September 2015 suspected ASG militants carried out a kidnapping of foreign tourists on the resort island Samal, located off Davao City. Several of the victims were later executed. The Roxas market in Davao City was struck by a bomb on 2 September 2016 causing dozens of fatalities and injuries. The attack was the first major incident involving the then newly formed Maute group. It should be noted that the number shown above for 2015 is inflated due to an anomolous event in early 2015 when Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) militants and security forces clashed.
This single incident caused at least 80 casualties despite ongoing peace talks between the government and MILF. As a measure of militant activity the numbers shown here are therefore understating the upward trend after 2015 since the vast majority of attacks lead to small number of casualties. The distribution of casualties among the subgroups that have been separated in the analysis (civilians, security forces and militants) have remained fairly stable during the period of the study. However there has been a shift toward fewer civilian and higher militant casualties reported. 2015: Civilian 29 percent; Military 22 percent; Militants 29 percent; Unknown 19 percent 2016: Civilian 26 percent; Military 25 percent; Militants 19 percent; Unknown 28 percent 2017: Civilian 19 percent; Military 23 percent; Militants 41 percent; Unknown 16 percent General trends regarding militant activity There has been an observable increase in militant activity as measured by the number of recorded incidents during the period of this study, particularly during late 2016 and 2017. However these results could partially be linked to an increase in military anti-militant operations in the region. It should however be noted that the increase has happened in the same timeframe when several militant factions active in the region have turned more heavily toward islamist extremism and declared allegiance to the Islamic State. Thus this development is partially or likely influenced by IS as a firebrand for global jihad. Another worrying trend that is observable through a series of incidents in 2017 is the attempt by Abu Sayyaf to expand their operations into the Cebu region north of Mindanao, particularly in parts of Bohol Island. Any further such expansions may cause an increased risk of incidents in urban areas and tourist resorts on the central islands of the Philippines. Even though there have been previous attempts by militant groups at taking control over urban areas, such as the attacks on Butig by Maute in 2016, the large scale engagement by primarily Maute and Abu Sayyaf in Marawi constitutes a change in modus operandi. However it is unclear whether another such attempt would be possible in the short to medium term considering the losses for the militant groups during the clashes in recent months. About GWS and Safeture GWS Production AB, (Global Warning System) was founded in 2009, triggered by our founder s personal experience with the global SARS epidemic in 2003, the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, and the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008. During these incidents, our founder concluded that lives could have been saved by targeted early warnings and reliable disaster information. Through our software service Safeture, our core value is to provide early warning and real-time travel safety and security information directly to our users' mobile phone. Safeture is a personal mobile safety and security management platform and app that caters to the business traveller s safety and security needs. Safeture serves companies as a travel risk management and duty of care package. We do this by providing real-time information to company management about travelling employees and at the same time, providing travelling employees with valuable information about disasters, and other threats that could affect their business travel. GWS, therefore, helps companies take care of their travelling employees during their most vulnerable times. For more information, visit our website: www.globalwarningsystem.com or give us a call us on +46 46 38 67 50