generate shifts in our judgments regarding the correct application of know. One

Forthcoming in Synthese Knowledge, Belief, and Egocentric Bias Paul Dimmock Abstract Changes in conversationally salient error possibilities, and/or changes in stakes, appear to generate shifts in our judgments regarding the correct application of know. One prominent response to these shifts is to argue that they arise due to shifts in belief and do not pose a problem for traditional semantic or metaphysical accounts of knowledge (or know ). Such doxastic accounts face familiar difficulties with cases where knowledge is ascribed to subjects in different practical or conversational situations from the speaker. Jennifer Nagel has recently offered an ingenious response to these problematic cases appeal to egocentric bias. Appeal to this kind of bias also has the potential for interesting application in other philosophical arenas, including discussions of epistemic modals. In this paper, I draw on relevant empirical literature to clarify the nature of egocentric bias as it manifests in children and adults, and argue that appeal to egocentric bias is ill-suited to respond to the problem cases for doxastic accounts. Our discussion also has significant impact on the prospects for application of egocentric bias in other arenas. Keywords: Psychological Bias; Epistemic Egocentrism; Knowledge Ascriptions; Classical Invariantism 1

Introduction As is familiar from examples involving banks, airports, and painted mules, changes in conversationally salient error-possibilities, and/or changes in how much is at stake, appear to generate shifts in our judgments regarding the correct application of know. 1 Contextualists have argued that these judgments motivate the semantic thesis that the contents of knowledge -ascribing and denying sentences vary with context. Impurists have argued instead that these judgments motivate the metaphysical thesis that knowledge is constitutively tied to practical or conversational factors. 2 But more conservative theorists have rejected the claim that the shifts in our judgments about know warrant our embrace of surprising metaphysical or semantic theses about knowledge (or know ). Among these more conservative theorists are those who suggest that our judgments are an upshot of the fact that shifts in stakes and/or salient error possibilities lead to shifts in the presence of belief (see esp. Bach 2005: V & Nagel 2008, 2010a, 2010b, 2011). 3 Such belief-centric (or doxastic ) proposals face a number of familiar challenges and difficulties. Some prominent obstacles include accounting for examples where belief is stipulated to be present and for examples where knowledge is ascribed (or denied) to a subject in a different practical or conversational situation from the speaker. In a series of papers, Jennifer Nagel (2008, 2010a, 2010b, 2011) has attempted to address these challenges for doxastic proposals. Although Nagel s proposals have not garnered much 1 See e.g. Vogel 1990: 15-16, Cohen 1999: 58, DeRose 2009: 1-5, Lewis 1996. There is now a substantial empirical literature investigating the extent to which these shifts in judgment are exhibited by ordinary speakers. There seems to be some good evidence that shifts in the salience of error possibilities generate shifts in ordinary speakers judgments regarding know, but the situation is arguably less clear in regard to stakes effects. See e.g. Buckwalter 2014, Schaffer & Knobe 2012, and Buckwalter & Schaffer 2014 for some relevant empirical work and discussion. 2 Prominent contextualist accounts include Cohen 1999, DeRose 1995, 2009, Lewis 1996, Blome-Tillmann 2014, Ichikawa 2017. Impurist (or anti-intellectualist ) accounts include Hawthorne 2004: ch. 4, Stanley 2005, Fantl & McGrath 2009, Weatherson 2005, 2017. 3 It is possible to pursue a doxastic approach to explaining shifts in our judgments about know that is metaphysically or semantically non-conservative (see e.g. Weatherson 2005). In the present paper, I shall focus on conservative (i.e. classical invariantist) attempts to pursue a doxastic approach, but our discussion plausibly has significance for some non-conservative doxastic approaches as well. 2

serious attention in the literature, her attempt to revive the doxastic approach seems especially worthy of consideration in light of recent criticism of other attempts by conservatively-minded theorists to explain the aforementioned shifts in our judgments about know (see e.g. Nagel 2010a: 286-301, Blome-Tillmann 2013, Dimmock & Huvenes 2014, Dinges forthcoming (a)). It also seems worthy of consideration in light of an interesting and innovative aspect of Nagel s proposals her appeal to egocentric bias. As we shall see later on, appeal to egocentric bias would seem to have the potential to address problems both for various epistemological theories, and also for theories in a range of other philosophical arenas, including accounts of epistemic modals, predicates of personal taste, and moral claims. A more careful look at how egocentric bias functions would therefore seem to be of some significant and general philosophical interest. 1. A Doxastic Approach Consider the following examples (adapted from Nagel 2010a: 287; Cohen 2002: 312-3): Table A. John is in a store looking at what appears to be a bright red table a few yards ahead of him. John s young son asks John, Do you know that the table is red?. John replies, Yes, I know it s red. Table B. John is in a store looking at what appears to be a bright red table a few yards ahead of him. John s young son asks John, Do you know that the table is red?, and remarks that the table would appear just the same to John if it was white but illuminated by red lights. John replies, No, I don t know that it s red. Assume that in both Table A and Table B the table is indeed red, and the lighting conditions normal. The standard story, applied to our examples, is that John s knowledge ascription 3

seems true in Table A and his knowledge denial seems true in Table B. 4 Non-sceptical epistemologists concede that John s knowledge ascription in examples like Table A is true. These theorists therefore have no trouble accommodating the judgment that his knowledge ascription in Table A seems true. But John s grounds for believing that the table is red seem to be the same in Table A and Table B. It might therefore seem that if John knows in Table A, he knows in Table B. The challenge for non-sceptical epistemologists is therefore to explain why it nevertheless seems true for John to deny that he knows in examples like Table B. As noted in the Introduction, some prominent non-sceptical epistemologists have argued that our judgments about examples like Table B can be explained if we accept either contextualism or impurism. But more conservative non-sceptical epistemologists classical invariantists reject these contentious theories, and maintain that know is not semantically context sensitive and that knowledge is not constitutively tied to nonepistemic factors, such as salient error possibilities or stakes. 5 In order to defend their position, classical invariantists therefore require some alternative explanation for our judgments regarding examples like Table B. One natural classical invariantist suggestion is that the reason John s knowledge denial seems true in Table B is that considering the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights causes John to lose his belief that the table is red. If that s right, then assuming belief is required for knowledge it follows that John s utterance of I 4 For some relevant empirical work on these kinds of judgments, see e.g. Schaffer & Knobe 2012; Buckwalter 2014. Note that to generate the reported judgments it may be necessary to amend Table B to ensure that the possibility of tricky lighting becomes sufficiently salient (see Schaffer & Knobe 2012: 19-22). If necessary, the discussion to follow could be recast in terms of such amended cases. 5 For characterisation of the relevant positions in the debate, see e.g. DeRose (2009: 1-49) or MacFarlane (2014: ch. 7). Note that classical invariantists also reject the semantic claim associated with relativist or perspectival accounts of know viz. the claim that the contents of knowledge -ascribing and denying sentences are only true relative to some additional epistemic standards parameter (see e.g. MacFarlane 2005, 2014: ch. 7). 4

don t know that the table is red in Table B is in fact true. It is therefore unsurprising that it seems true. There seem to be three broad mechanisms via which John might lose his belief in Table B: 6 Lowers credence. Some empirical research suggests that considering additional error possibilities leads to lower levels of subjective confidence (Kelley 1972). It might therefore be proposed that considering the possibility of tricky lighting causes John to lower his credence (degree of confidence) in the proposition that the table is red such that his credence is no longer high enough for him to count as believing that it is red (cf. Nagel 2010b: 422). Raises threshold. Some theorists have suggested that the level of credence required for belief is determined (in part) by the practical or conversational situation of the subject (Weatherson 2005). It might therefore be proposed that John s consideration of the possibility of tricky lighting raises the credence threshold John must meet to count as believing that the table is red such that, even if John does not lower his credence upon considering the possibility of tricky lighting, he nevertheless ceases to believe that the table is red. 7 Other factors. Having a belief might not simply be a matter of having a credence above a certain threshold it might require something else in addition (or instead). It might 6 These three broad approaches can be found in Nagel (2010b), though Nagel does not take pains to distinguish them. Bach (2005: V) does not indicate the mechanism via which a subject like John might lose his belief, merely remarking (in regard to a similar case) that the subject s belief may be shaken somewhat. 7 Note that this particular account of how John loses his belief may ultimately require accepting impurism, and thus be unacceptable to those seeking to defend classical invariantism. See Weatherson (2005) and Nagel (2010b: 417-8) for some relevant discussion. 5

therefore be proposed that considering the possibility of tricky lighting removes John s belief that the table is red by impacting that something else. For example, it might be proposed that believing that P requires perhaps in addition to having a certain credence in P the kind of psychological conviction associated with 'taking it to be settled that P or having one s mind made up that P (cf. Nagel 2010b: 416-21). It might then be suggested that in situations where we are considering ways we might be mistaken with respect to P, we often require additional evidence before being psychologically able to (e.g.) take it to be settled that P. 8 In that case, considering the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights might remove John s belief that the table is red not because it lowers his credence that the table is red, and not because the credence threshold for belief goes up, but rather because considering that possibility causes John to no longer take it to be settled that the table is red. Call this view removes psychological conviction. 9 The particular mechanism via which John loses his belief is not central to the discussion to come, so I shall remain neutral on that issue in what follows. 10 In addition, I shall continue to focus on examples, like Table A and Table B, that concern how shifts in salient error possibilities impact our judgments about the correct application of know. Doxastic approaches to examples involving shifts in practical factors, such as stakes, meet with parallel problems, and the discussion to follow can be fairly straightforwardly extended to 8 See Nagel (2010b: esp. 416-21, 2011: 13-15, 2010a: 303) for development of ideas along similar lines, and discussion of relevant psychological literature. 9 It may be natural to pursue a similar proposal if one thinks that the doxastic requirement on knowledge is not belief, but is rather being sure or being (subjectively) certain (see e.g. DeRose 2009: 186n). 10 Nagel appears to show preference for a view along the lines of removes psychological conviction (see e.g. Nagel 2010b: 418). One possible advantage of this proposal is that it may be more naturally suited to explaining our judgments regarding just how much additional evidence John requires in order to know that the table is red (see esp. Nagel 2011: 13-5; also 2010a: 303). Issues surrounding how much additional evidence subjects like John need to possess in order to know will return later ( 2, 6). 6

cover such examples. To keep things manageable, I shall therefore largely ignore stakesbased cases in what follows. 2. Challenges An immediate concern for those sympathetic to the kind of doxastic approach sketched in the previous section is that we exhibit similar judgments about the correct application of know even when belief is stipulated to be present. For example, we can imagine a case, Table B*, which is just like Table B except that Table B* contains the additional stipulation that John believes, on the basis of how the table looks, that the table is red. The concern is that even with such an additional stipulation in place, it seems true for John to respond, I don t know that the table is red (cf. Nagel 2010a: 287-8, DeRose 2009: 1-2). How is this to be squared with a doxastic approach to explaining the shifts in our judgments about know? Nagel (2008, 2010a, 2010b, 2011) puts forward a novel strategy for responding to such stipulated-belief cases. In regard to a case similar to Table B*, she writes: People who are actively thinking about the influence of lighting conditions on colour judgements can still go ahead and make their colour judgements without checking the lighting, but would typically do so only under conditions of compromised or motivated belief formation. But these conditions haste, distraction, wishful thinking are the sort of conditions that tend to lower accuracy of judgement. When the accuracy of one s judgement appears to be compromised, one seems to be a mere believer, rather than a knower. (Nagel 2010a: 303) Roughly, then, the strategy is that if it is stipulated that John believes that the table is red despite actively considering the possibility that it is white but illuminated by red lights (and 7

despite not checking for red lights), he will appear to have formed his belief via the influence of some epistemically problematic factor, such as wishful thinking. The presence of such a factor would seem to us to render John s belief formation insufficiently accurate (reliable), and so we judge that John lacks knowledge. 11 A great deal more could be said about this strategy for handling stipulated-belief cases, but for the purposes of the present paper, I shall just grant that it is successful. 12 In what follows, I wish to focus on a further set of problematic cases for the doxastic approach, concerning situations where the subject of a knowledge claim is in a different conversational or practical situation from the speaker. Various cases illustrate the problem. The following are two representative examples: Table (3 rd Person). Suppose that John and his son are in a situation like Table B John s son has just raised the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights, and John utters I don t know that the table is red. But now suppose that John s wife, Alice, is a few feet away from John, with a similar clear view of the table as him. Alice has clearly not overheard John and her son s conversation, and is not considering ways she might be mistaken, such as that the table is white but illuminated by red lights. Alice believes, on the basis of how the table looks, that the table is red. Suppose that after John issues his knowledge denial, John s son notices his mother looking at the table. John s son says to John that the table would also appear just the same to his mother if it was white but illuminated by red lights, and asks John if his mother knows that the table is red. John responds No, she has the same evidence as me. She doesn t know that it s red either. 11 Nagel (2010b: 420n) offers a slightly different suggestion: that the subject s belief may appear to fall short of knowledge because it will seem to lack the epistemic virtues necessary for knowledge. The differences between this proposal and the one in the main text are not important for the discussion to follow. 12 Sripada & Stanley (2012: 18-23) criticise Nagel s strategy for handling stipulated-belief cases as either implausible or committed to impurism (and so unsuitable for preserving classical invariantism). Nagel addresses some concerns along these lines in (Nagel 2010b: 427-8; see also 2011: 13-5). Shin (2014: 173-7) also raises some concerns for Nagel s proposal. 8

In regard to similar cases, it is standardly reported that John s response seems true (see e.g. Nagel 2010a: 287-8, Vogel 1990: 15-16, Cohen 1999, DeRose 2009: 3-6). 13 Table (Modal Contrast). Suppose that John and his son are in a situation like Table B John s son has just raised the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights, and John utters I don t know that the table is red. Two shop assistants, Rick and Mona, are standing next to the table, and have overheard John and his son s conversation. Rick and Mona look up and check that there is no red lighting. Rick then asks Mona if she agrees with John that he doesn t know that the table is red, reiterating John s son s observation that the table would appear just the same to John if it was white but illuminated by red lights. Mona replies, I agree he doesn t know the table is red. But if his son hadn t raised the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights, he would know that it s red. In regard to similar cases, it is standardly reported that Mona s response seems strange (see e.g. Hawthorne 2004: 177n, Nagel 2010b: 426, Blome-Tillmann 2009: 320). 14 A doxastic approach, even one supplemented by Nagel s strategy for handling stipulatedbelief cases, seems ill-suited to account for our judgments in these cases. Consider Table (3 rd Person). In that example, John s son remarks that the table would appear just the same to Alice if it was white but illuminated by red lights, and John utters [Alice] doesn t know that it s red. John s utterance seems true, but since Alice is not considering error possibilities, the doxastic approach does not seem to supply any obstacle to Alice knowing 13 As in the case of Table B, it may be necessary to amend the case to ensure that the possibility of tricky lighting becomes sufficiently salient in order to generate the judgment that John s denial of knowledge to Alice seems true (see fn. 4). (Similar remarks may also apply to Table (Modal Contrast).) Such amendments are not important to the discussion that follows. 14 Note that Mona s utterance may seem true (and not strange) if we suppose that had John s son not raised the possibility of tricky lighting, John would have looked up at the lighting, and so been able to confirm that the lighting conditions are normal. But I take it that this is not the natural reading of the case. The natural reading is that if his son had not raised the possibility of tricky lighting, John would have had just the same grounds to believe that the table is red that he has in the actual case (roughly, how the table looks), and so would still lack confirmation that that the lighting conditions are normal. 9

that the table is red. Indeed, as Alice resembles the John-character in Table A, it seems that advocates of the doxastic approach (as non-sceptics) should accept that Alice knows that the table is red. So why does John s utterance seem true? Or consider Table (Modal Contrast). In that example, Rick remarks that the table would seem just the same to John if it was white but illuminated by red lights, and Mona utters [John] doesn t know that the table is red. But if his son hadn t mentioned the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights, he would know that it s red. Mona s utterance seems strange, but on the doxastic approach, her utterance is plausibly true. As things actually stand, the possibility of tricky lighting is salient to John. Given the doxastic approach, it should therefore be natural to suppose that John does not believe, and so does not know, that the table is red. However, if John s son had not mentioned the possibility of tricky lighting, the obstacle to John believing that the table is red would presumably be absent, and John would know that the table is red. So why does Mona s utterance seem strange? 15 The general problem underlying cases like Table (3 rd Person) and Table (Modal Contrast) can be usefully stated in terms of the familiar language of ruling out error possibilities. Once an error possibility becomes suitably salient, we are prone to judge as though subjects must be able to rule out that possibility in order to be truly said to know (cf. Lewis 1996). For example, once the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights becomes suitably salient, we are prone to judge as though John and Alice must be able to rule out that possibility i.e. possess something like the evidence acquired by explicitly looking up and checking the lighting in order to be truly said to know that the table is 15 It should be noted that the range of problem cases extends beyond examples like Table (3 rd Person) and Table (Modal Contrast). Other relevant examples include Temporal Contrast cases (see e.g. Stanley 2005: 106), Third- Person Contrast cases (see e.g. Neta 2007: 182-3), and Retraction cases (see e.g. MacFarlane 2005: 2.3). Our discussion could just as easily have focused on these examples. 10

red. 16 A positive aspect of the doxastic approach is that it seems suited to explaining why we judge in this way in regard to subjects, like John in Table B, who are considering the error possibilities at issue: these subjects need to gather additional evidence in order to naturally form the relevant belief (i.e. to form the relevant belief without the influence of epistemically problematic factors, like wishful thinking). However, we also judge as though those subjects who are not considering the error possibilities at issue, such as Alice in Table (3 rd Person), must be able to rule out those possibilities in order to be truly said to know (cf. Bach 2005: V). But at least insofar as the error possibilities at issue are distant or improbable ones such as the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights subjects who are not considering those error possibilities presumably do not need to be able to rule them out in order to naturally form beliefs. 17 Thus, in regard to examples involving these kinds of subjects, a doxastic approach seems ill-suited to explaining our judgments. 18 3 Egocentric Bias The preceding cases, involving attributions/denials of knowledge to subjects in different conversational situations from the speaker, can seem extremely problematic for advocates of the doxastic approach. But Nagel (2010a: 301-6, 2010b: 425-6) provides an ingenious 16 I take it that we have some intuitive grasp on what is needed for a subject like John to rule out that the table is white but illuminated by red lights. Ruling out that possibility seems to require something like the evidence acquired by explicitly looking up and checking the lighting, and something over and above mere statistical evidence for thinking that the relevant tricky-lighting scenario is unlikely. It should be noted that some philosophers think that our intuitive notion of ruling out may simply collapse into knowledge that the relevant possibility does not obtain (see e.g. DeRose 1995: 16-7). But this is not important for us here: the present appeal to ruling out error possibilities is being made for illustrative (and not reductive) purposes. 17 See Nagel (2010b) for extensive discussion of natural ( evidence-based ) belief formation vs. epistemically problematic belief formation. 18 It might be suggested that the best response to examples like Table (3 rd Person) and Table (Modal Contrast) is to combine a doxastic approach with some other explanatory approach (e.g. the pragmatic approach found in Brown 2006, Rysiew 2007). An initial concern with such hybrid approaches is that they are liable to render appeal to doxastic factors explanatorily redundant. But the more pressing concern is that such hybrid accounts seem liable to inherit the various problems associated with those other explanatory approaches (see e.g. Nagel 2010a: 286-301, Blome-Tillmann 2013, Dimmock & Huvenes 2014, Dinges forthcoming(a) for some discussion of relevant problems). 11

way to exploit the doxastic approach to explain our judgments even in the examples sketched above an appeal to egocentric bias. 19 Empirical research indicates that we have trouble making accurate judgments about those in more naïve positions than ourselves. In particular, a significant body of research has shown that, when making judgments about those more ignorant than ourselves, we tend to mistakenly treat them as though they share our knowledge (see e.g. Nickerson 1999, Birch & Bloom 2004). This tendency is often termed epistemic egocentrism or the curse of knowledge. Nagel does not propose that a tendency to share our knowledge might explain our judgments in the cases presented in the previous section, but she does suggest that a similar bias could be in play, since the broader problem of epistemic egocentrism concerns not just our knowledge but also our beliefs, attitudes and concerns (2010a: 302). 20 Nagel (2010a: 301-6; see also 2010b: 425-6) proposes that our judgments about examples like Table (3 rd Person) and Table (Modal Contrast) might be a reflection of an egocentric tendency to treat others as sharing our concerns about error possibilities. In regard to a case similar to Table (3 rd Person), Nagel writes: Once concerns about the possibility of tricky lighting have been raised for me, I illegitimately evaluate [the subject s] predicament as if he shared those concerns. Ordinarily, a person who is actively concerned about the lighting would glance up to check it prior to making a judgement about the colour of the table. People who are actively thinking about the influence of lighting conditions on colour judgements can still go ahead and 19 Nagel is not the only classical invariantist to invoke psychological bias to explain problematic judgments. Williamson 2005 and Gerken 2012 (see also Gerken & Beebe 2016) also defend classical invariantism via appeal to psychological bias. For criticism of Williamson s approach, see Nagel (2010a: 286-301); for criticism of Gerken, see Stoutenburg (2017). 20 Nagel does not explicitly cite any literature in support of this claim. Although it is widely accepted that we tend to treat others as sharing our beliefs, attitudes and concerns (see e.g. the literature on the false consensus effect (Ross et al. 1977; Dawes 1989)), it is less clear that these tendencies will all have the same characteristics as epistemic egocentrism (understood narrowly as a tendency to treat others as sharing our knowledge). In particular, it is less clear whether tendencies to treat others as sharing our beliefs, attitudes and concerns will be as robust as our tendency to treat others as sharing our knowledge. (Of potential relevance here: see Birch and Bloom (2004: 257-8; also 256, Box 1) on the contrast between treating others as sharing our knowledge vs. sharing our ignorance.) For the purposes the present paper, I shall just grant to Nagel that the relevant tendencies are equally robust. 12

make their colour judgements without checking the lighting, but would typically do so only under conditions of compromised or motivated belief formation. (Nagel 2010a: 303) By reading the description in Table (3 rd Person), the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights becomes salient to us. Due to egocentric bias, we mistakenly treat Alice as though she is also considering that possibility. John s knowledge denial to Alice therefore seems true because it seems to us that Alice could only hold the belief that the table is red if she were under the influence of some epistemically problematic factor, such as wishful thinking. 21 An initial concern. Is it plausible that we would treat Alice as though she is considering the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights even though it is apparent from the case description that she is not considering such error possibilities? An interesting feature of epistemic egocentrism is that it is surprisingly robust. We tend to treat others as sharing our knowledge (at least to some degree) even when it is apparent that they lack this knowledge (see e.g. Fischoff 1975, Camerer et al. 1989, Birch & Bloom 2004). Nagel (2010a: 301-6) proposes that our tendency to treat others as considering the error possibilities that we are considering might exhibit similar robustness that we exhibit the relevant bias even if it is stipulated that the subject is not considering such possibilities. For the present, let us grant that this response is successful; the issues here will come to the fore in 4-6. A similar egocentric explanation can be offered in response to examples like Table (Modal Contrast). In regard to that case, the proposal would be that when trying to imagine counterfactual situations in which John is not considering the possibility that the table is 21 Nagel (2010b: 425-6) offers an alternative explanation for stakes-based cases similar to Table (3 rd Person). Her response mirrors one found in Stanley (2005: 102-4). For criticism of that proposal, see Schaffer (2006: 93-4) & MacFarlane (2014: 186-7). Bach (2005: V) also offers an alternative error-theoretic treatment of the cases; I consider Bach s response in fn. 37. 13

white but illuminated by red lights, we still mistakenly treat John as though he is considering that possibility. As a result, it seems to us that even if John were not considering the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights, he would still fail to know that the table is red, since he would only be able to form the belief that it is red if he were under the influence of some epistemically problematic factor, like wishful thinking. Thus, Mona s utterance of He doesn t know that the table is red. But if his son hadn t raised the possibility that the table is white but illuminated lights, he would know it s red seems false because her utterance of the conditional seems false (cf. Nagel 2010b: 426). 22 The proposal also seems able to account for the more general observation associated with our problem cases namely, that when the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights becomes suitably salient, we are prone to treat both subjects who are and subjects who are not considering that possibility as needing to be able to rule out that possibility in order to know. If, due to egocentric bias, we treat subjects who it is apparent are not considering the error possibilities that we are as though they are considering those possibilities, appeal to doxastic effects can presumably explain why we treat those subjects as also needing to rule out the error possibilities we are considering in order to possess knowledge. 23 22 What about structurally similar cases that concern shifts in practical factors, like stakes, rather than shifts in salient error possibilities (see e.g. Stanley 2005: 3-6 & 106 for relevant cases)? Nagel (2010b) proposes that high stakes subjects exhibit higher levels of epistemic anxiety than low stakes subjects. (A subject s level of epistemic anxiety corresponds (roughly) to the amount of evidence the subject needs to possess in order to be able to naturally form the relevant belief.) To handle stakes-based versions of examples like Table (3 rd Person) and Table (Modal Contrast), Nagel (2010b: 425-6) suggests that, due to egocentric bias, high stakes subjects may be prone to treat low stakes subjects as though they share their own high levels of epistemic anxiety. The concerns to follow carry over fairly straightforwardly to this kind of egocentric strategy as well (cf. fn. 33). (Nagel (2008: 292) offers a slightly different egocentric bias strategy for handling so-called Ignorant High Stakes cases; the concerns raised below may also pose a problem for this explanation, but for considerations of space, I cannot pursue the issue here.) 23 Stoutenburg (2017: 2037-9) objects to Nagel s appeal to epistemic egocentrism on the grounds that she has not first explained why we treat subjects who are considering (e.g.) the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights as needing to rule out that possibility in order to know that the table is red. However, Stoutenburg does not mention or consider the doxastic elements of Nagel s proposal that are intended to handle this issue. Roughly, Nagel s suggestion is that, due to the psychological constraints on belief formation, subjects who are considering the possibility of tricky lighting will not be psychologically able to form the belief that the table is red (without the 14

Interestingly, appeal to egocentric bias would also seem to have the potential for much broader philosophical application. For one thing, it seems that structurally similar appeals to egocentric bias could be put to work defending rival positions in the debates surrounding the metaphysics/semantics of knowledge. For example, impurist invariantists (commonly called subject-sensitive invariantists ) claim that knowledge is necessarily connected to the subject s conversational or practical concerns. On such accounts, the ignorance-inducing effects of considering error possibilities, or focusing on particular practical matters, are limited to those subjects who are in fact considering those error possibilities or focusing on those practical matters. As a result, impurist invariantists also face trouble with examples like Table (3 rd Person) and Table (Modal Contrast) (see e.g. Stanley 2005: 98-9 & 106). But drawing on Nagel s suggestions, impurist invariantists might propose that our judgments regarding such cases are not in fact a threat to their theories: they are merely the upshot of an egocentric tendency to treat other subjects as though they share our conversational and practical concerns. 24 There is also potential for application in other domains. For example, a lot has been made in the literature on epistemic modals (epistemic uses of expressions like might and possible ) of so-called eavesdropper cases. These are examples in which an eavesdropper, who knows that P, overhears a speaker, who does not know that P, make a claim of the form It might be that not-p. It is oft-reported that it seems true for the eavesdropper to say That s false in reference to the speaker s might -claim (see e.g. Hawthorne 2007). Such cases pose a problem for some standard contextualist accounts of epistemic modals on which epistemic uses of It might be that not-p express, roughly, that not-p is compatible with what the speaker knows (or with what the speaker and her intended audience knows). influence of epistemically problematic factors) unless they have evidence sufficient to rule that possibility out (see 1-2 above & esp. Nagel 2011: 13-5). 24 See Dinges forthcoming(b) for a recent development of this kind of proposal. I take the concerns raised in 4-6 to carry over fairly straightforwardly to Dinges proposal, but for considerations of space, I cannot engage with his proposal here. Thanks to an anonymous referee for drawing my attention to Dinges paper. 15

But if the eavesdropper (and us) treat the speaker as sharing our knowledge that P, that could explain why the eavesdropper (and us) judge that it seems correct for the eavesdropper to say That s false. Egocentric bias could also be central to explaining some cases of moral disagreement and of disagreement about personal taste that pose trouble for contextualist theories of moral terms like good and wrong (see e.g. Khoo & Knobe forthcoming) and of taste expressions like fun and disgusting (see e.g. MacFarlane 2014: ch. 6). If we treat others as sharing our moral codes and personal tastes, then even supposing that terms like good and disgusting express different properties when used by different those with different moral codes or personal tastes, we may mistakenly treat others as expressing the same properties that we express when using those terms and erroneously judge that we are in disagreement as a result. 25 Given its potentially broad diagnostic potential, then, it seems that a better understanding of egocentric bias would be beneficial. 4 A Partial Bias Nagel suggests that our tendency to treat others as considering the error possibilities that we are considering is a facet of epistemic egocentrism (Nagel 2010a: 301-6, 2010b: 425). This is important for Nagel s project because epistemic egocentrism is a surprisingly robust bias. Remarkably, subjects in the relevant empirical studies continue to be biased even if they are told about epistemic egocentrism and its effects on judgment (Fischoff 1975), and even if they are given financial incentives to avoid the bias (Camerer et al. 1989). But although the 25 The point here is that appeal to egocentric bias appears to show significant prima facie explanatory promise. The extent to which appeal to egocentric bias can assist in explaining our judgments seems liable to depend, inter alia, on the precise details of the contextualist accounts at issue. Similar remarks apply to the other potential applications of egocentric bias sketched above. 16

bias is robust, it is not as strong as our previous discussion (and Nagel s own discussion) might have seemed to indicate. In regard to very young children, Birch and Bloom (2004, 2007) suggest that epistemic egocentrism is very powerful. Consider an example familiar from debates in developmental psychology: Displacement. An experimental participant is told a story about Sally who places her candy in basket A and then leaves the room. In the story, another character then moves Sally s candy to basket B. The participant is asked where Sally will first look for her candy when she comes back into the room. Children under four typically respond that Sally will first look in basket B. (Wimmer & Perner 1983; Baron Cohen, Leslie, & Frith 1985.) Birch & Bloom (2004, 2007) (see also Birch & Bernstein 2007) suggest that these results be understood in terms of epistemic egocentrism. Birch & Bloom propose that the child responds that Sally will first look for her candy in basket B because the child treats Sally as sharing his knowledge that the candy is in basket B, and that he does this despite being apprised of the information (from the story) that Sally was out of the room when her candy was moved. 26 This clearly resembles the kind of bias that Nagel alleges is present in examples like Table (3 rd Person) and Table (Modal Contrast). We treat the relevant subject as sharing our concern with the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights, despite being apprised of the information that the subject is not considering such error possibilities. 26 The traditional understanding of these tasks is that they reveal a more fundamental cognitive deficit in very young children than simply epistemic egocentrism. Birch & Bloom (2004, 2007) (also Birch & Bernstein 2007) attempt to push back against that traditional understanding, but the dispute is not important for our purposes. The central point is that epistemic egocentrism does not manifest in such a powerful way in adults. 17

The problem is that epistemic egocentrism does not manifest in this kind of strong way in adults. A central feature of epistemic egocentrism as it manifests in adults is that it is a partial bias (Birch & Bloom 2004: 258, Box 2; see also Camerer et al. 1989). We (adults) do not straightforwardly treat others as though they know what we do, at least not when it is apparent that those others do not share our knowledge. Rather, our knowledge impairs our ability to make accurate judgments about those more ignorant than ourselves. A common theme in the literature on understanding egocentric bias is the idea that our judgments about how another person will act or judge are shaped by our thinking about how we would act or judge in that person s situation (see e.g. Nickerson 1999; cf. Nagel 2010a: 302). On this picture, epistemic egocentrism with respect to knowledge emerges because we are unable to fully suppress the effects of our own knowledge when making judgments about those more ignorant than ourselves. The result is various partial errors. Consider the displacement task. Adults (and older children) do not judge that Sally will first look in basket B. We thus do not treat Sally as though she straightforwardly shares our knowledge of her candy s location when making a judgment about how Sally will act. But research does suggest that our own knowledge that the candy is in basket B might lead us to commit various partial errors. For example, one potential partial effect is that our own knowledge that the candy is in basket B will lead us to overestimate the likelihood that Sally will first look in basket B. In this regard, Birch and Bloom (2007) conducted a study that indicates that (adult) subjects who are told that Sally s candy is removed from basket A and then placed in basket B will judge that it is more likely that Sally will first look in basket B than will those subjects who 18

are told merely that the candy has been removed from basket A and then returned to a basket (but not told which basket). 27 Such results indicate that the more knowledgeable subjects are biased in their judgments about the likelihood of where Sally will first look for her candy. But any bias in their judgments about how Sally will act is decidedly partial: Birch & Bloom s study suggests that the more knowledgeable subjects will still assign a low probability to the claim that Sally will first look in basket B, even if it is higher than the probability assigned by the more ignorant subjects. A couple of prominent examples serves to further demonstrate the partial nature of epistemic egocentrism. An influential study by Baron and Hershey (1988), one Nagel (2010a: 302-3) emphasises when introducing her own proposal, comprised an investigation into the effects of outcome knowledge on our evaluation of various medical and monetary decisions. As part of the study, subjects were given the following medical case: A 55-year old man had a heart condition. He had to stop working because of chest pain. He enjoyed his work and did not want to stop. His pain also interfered with other things, such as travel and recreation. A type of bypass operation would relieve his pain and increase his life expectancy from age 65 to age 70. However, 8% of the people who have this operation die from the operation itself. His physician decided to go ahead with the operation. The operation succeeded. Evaluate the physician s decision to go ahead with the operation. (Baron & Hershey 1988: 57) Participants were also supplied with a case that was the same except that it involved a negative outcome in that case, it was stated that the operation was unsuccessful and the 27 Birch and Bloom s (2007) study was conducted on a more complicated example than the one discussed in the main text. Their example involved several baskets of different shapes and colours, and the baskets themselves were also moved around while the Sally-character was out of the room. The results showed statistically significant bias in the judgments of subjects who knew where the object (a violin) was placed: those participants who knew which basket the violin was in judged it more likely that the Sally-character would first look in that basket than did those participants ignorant of the violin s location. (Though interestingly Birch and Bloom found no statistically significant bias in versions of the example where it was especially implausible that Sally would first look in the basket where the violin in fact was. To the extent that it is especially implausible that a typical subject would be considering the possibility that the table is white but illuminated by red lights, this may be a source of additional concern for Nagel s proposal. But I set it aside.) 19

man died. 28 The participants were told that the man s physician had no further information on which to ground her decision to go ahead with the operation other than what is given in the first paragraph of the quoted text, and were asked to evaluate the physician s decision, the decision itself, the quality of the thinking that went into it, on the following scale: 3 clearly correct, and the opposite decision would be inexcusable; 2 correct, all-thingsconsidered; 1 correct, but the opposite would be reasonable too; 0 the decision and its opposite are equally good; -1 incorrect, but not inexcusable; -2 incorrect, all-thingsconsidered; -3 incorrect and inexcusable. If participants had straightforwardly treated the physician as though she shared their knowledge of the actual outcome when making her decision, we would presumably expect a preponderance of 3s in the case where the operation succeeded, and -3s in the case where the man died. The reason is simple: if (e.g.) the physician knew the man was going to die, then her decision to undertake the operation would presumably be incorrect and inexcusable. But this is not what happened. Instead, what was found was a tendency to evaluate the physician s decision as slightly higher up the aforementioned scale in the case where the operation succeeded than in the case where the man died. (Baron & Hershey calculated the mean decision evaluation in the positive outcome (operation succeeded) case and then subtracted it from the mean decision evaluation in the negative outcome (patient died) case. They report that, across a range of similar positive/negative-outcome case pairs, the mean difference was 0.7 i.e. a positive outcome as opposed to a negative outcome produced, on average, an increase of slightly more than half an increment on the ranking scale described above.) This suggests that our evaluation of decisions is indeed biased by our knowledge of the relevant outcome, but that once again, the effect is partial. We do not straightforwardly treat the physician as though she shares our knowledge of the outcome. 28 The cases were presented along with several others in a within-subjects design; the positive outcome case was spread far apart in the presentation from its corresponding negative outcome case to reduce reliance on memory. 20

Consider a final example. As part of a well-known study by Baruch Fischoff (1975), a group of participants ( before-subjects ) were given some information concerning a particular event (e.g. a conflict between British and Gurka forces in the 1800s), and asked to estimate the likelihood of each of a list of four possible outcomes, given that information. Another group of participants were given the same information, but were also told that a particular outcome in fact came to pass (e.g. that the Gurka forces triumphed). This second group of participants ( after-subjects ) were asked to judge the likelihood of the four possible outcomes as they would have, had they not known what happened. Aftersubjects gave estimates of how likely they would have judged the reported outcome to be that were significantly higher than the estimates produced for that outcome by beforesubjects. Nevertheless, when asked to judge as they would have, had they not known what happened, after-subjects did not treat their counterfactually-imagined more ignorant selves as though they knew the relevant outcome. If they had, they would presumably have issued probabilities close to 100% for the outcome that they were told came to pass. 29 Instead, after-subjects estimates of how likely they would have judged that outcome to be were merely inflated. (Across a range of historical events, Fischoff reports that the mean increase in probability estimate for the reported outcome among after-subjects vs. before-subjects was 9.2%.) 30 The upshot of such studies is that although we are often cursed by our own knowledge when making judgments about others, we do not straightforwardly treat others as though they know what we know, at least not in situations where it is apparent that they do not possess that knowledge. The claim that we treat such subjects as sharing our knowledge is 29 Participants were asked to express their probability estimates as percentages. 30 Note that unlike the Baron & Hershey (1988) study, Fischoff s study employed a between-subjects design (as did Birch & Bloom 2007). 21

thus a rather misleading oversimplification (cf. Birch & Bloom 2004: 258, Box 2). What really happens is that our own privileged knowledge leads us to make various partial judgmental errors errors in judgment about how others will judge and act, or about the appropriateness of their so doing, that are plausibly the result of a failure to fully suppress our own knowledge. A more accurate characterisation of the phenomenon is thus that we treat those who it is apparent are more ignorant than ourselves as though they share our knowledge to some degree. 31 Or drawing on the familiar language of epistemic position (DeRose 1995), it seems that our own knowledge leads us to treat more ignorant others as though they occupy a better epistemic position (one more like our own) than they really do. Consider the displacement task. We do not straightforwardly treat Sally as sharing our knowledge that her candy is in basket B. But insofar as we overestimate the likelihood that Sally will first look in basket B, we do seem to be treating Sally as though her epistemic position with respect to the proposition that her candy in in basket B is better than it really is. 5 Partial Bias and Salient Error Possibilities Let s turn now to consider the other facet of epistemic egocentrism (broadly understood) that Nagel proposes accounts for our judgments in the problem cases encountered in 2 that we will treat other subjects as though they are considering the error possibilities that we are. The preceding reflections on how epistemic egocentrism manifests with respect to knowledge suggest that it is implausible that we will straightforwardly treat others as 31 In regard to Baron & Hershey s (1988) investigation into our evaluation of medical and monetary decisions, Nagel herself writes that the subjects began to misrepresent the decision-makers egocentrically as though they did have some degree of foreknowledge (Nagel 2010a: 303; emphasis added). This passage suggests that Nagel recognises the partial nature of epistemic egocentrism as it manifests with respect to knowledge. It is thus somewhat surprising that she does not acknowledge that the same is likely to be the case with respect to her own proposed bias. 22