JOMUN XIV Forum: Issue: Situation in Syria Student Officer: Inhoo Lee Position: Deputy Chair INTRODUCTION Syria fallen into and has stayed in a state of factional chaos for 5 years, with numerous human rights violations among the extensive list of casualties. Currently, the death toll has amassed to 250,000 people, and the conflict still maintains its path of destruction and violence. The main players in this civil crisis are the Syrian Government, the Russian Government, Islamic State, the Syrian Liberation Front, and the Islamic Front (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). The multiple forces have been exchanging fire to gain more control in Syria. At this point in time, there is a power vacuum in Syria. The fighting began in 2011, when protests begin in Syria to end Bashar al Assad s regime. In return, the government forces rained down on the civilians, who subsequently returned fire. Conflict ensued, and other forces such as Hezbollah backed the Syrian Government, which was backed by the Iranian, Russian, and Iraqi resources. Additionally, ISIL or the Islamic State fought to dominate Syria with pro Islam ideologies (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). The resulting fighting has led to numerous human rights concerns and strings of massacres. Thus, the following research report explores a more detailed development of the war and investigates past and future methods of recovery (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS Terrorist a person who uses violent acts to frighten the people in an area as a way of trying to achieve a political goal Research Report Page 1 of 13
Jihadist a person who participates in wars to strengthen the prevalence of Islam Chemical Weapons Any toxic chemical or its precursor that can cause death, injury, temporary incapacitation or sensory irritation through its chemical action Internally Displaced Persons Someone who is forced to flee his or her home but remains in his or her country Refugee A person who has been forced to leave his or her country Proxy War A war instigated by major powers, who do not involve themselves in the conflict Sunni A branch of Islam that differs from Shia in its understanding of the three caliphs Shia A branch of Islam that believes that Ali is Muhammad s first successor BACKGROUND ON THE ISSUE The situation in Syria erupted during the Arab Spring when government forces and civilians clashed. Eventually, rebellion groups began forming and ISIL and Hezbollah joined the fight. As of now, the conflict between multiple powers has turned Syria into a nest of humanitarian crisis. Arab Spring The Arab Spring was an international string of protests against authoritarian governments in the middle east region. Nations that have contributed towards the Arab Spring trend are Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAE, and Yemen. In Syria, the Arab Spring took form as a series of protests that started on the 8 th of April, 2011 against the Assad Regime. The citizens wanted the authoritarian despot to release political prisoners, Research Report Page 2 of 13
introduce democracy, and an end to government corruption. However, in Syria, the government violently turned on the citizens on the 25 th of April, when the Syrian Army launched a string of attacks on towns with tanks, infantry, and artillery that continued into May. The death toll for civilians reached a 1000 when protesters also turned violent when members of a funeral demonstration were killed by the police. The back and forth violence has characterized the rest of the Syrian Civil War (An Interactive Timeline of Middle East Protests). Proxy Wars The Assad Regime follows and aligns itself with the Alawite branch of Islam, which derives from Shia Islam. The rebel groups of Syria such as Syrian Free Army (FSA) and the Islamic Front are followers of the Sunni branch of Islam. In addition, Sunni nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Shia groups such as Hezbollah, Iran, and Iraq backed their respective branch of Islam. Therefore a proxy war between the Sunni and the Shia ensued in Syria. Both sides supported their members in Syria with money, weaponry, and soldiers. Although it has been denied by the Assad regime and Hezbollah, reports indicate that Hezbollah fighters were recruited in Syria to fight ISIL and the forces that opposed the Assad Regime. The Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims have had multiple conflicts in the past, but as of now, the two groups are clashing Syria, resulting in devastation of civilians. More recently, another proxy war has begun, which is the indirect conflict between the United States and Russia. The United States, along with many other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations, has created the Combined Joint Task Force, to combat ISIL and to protect the FSA with airstrikes, which has implemented friendly relations with Western nations. However, the Russian air force has been targeting Assad opposition groups such as the FSA and has been protecting the Assad regime from opposition groups from rebel groups. Therefore, the United States and Russia have been indirectly fighting each other by attacking opposing groups of the Syrian Civil War (Council on Foreign Relations). Rebel Offensive As soon as the Assad regime attacked protesters in 2011, rebellion groups have been popping up all over Syria. The most notable offensive groups include FSA and the Islamic Front. Both groups were formed mainly to attack the Assad regime and to bring back stable government in Syria. Although they lack the resources available to the Assad regime, the groups have been fighting aggressively for the past 5 years (Council on Foreign Relations). Jihadist Attacks The main contributor to Jihadist Attacks in Syria has been ISIL, the organization has been responsible for terror attacks in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and France. Due to the power Research Report Page 3 of 13
vacuum that is present in Syria, the terror group is able to move without much resistance from town to town. The largest impact of ISIL has been its humanitarian damage. ISIL has been responsible for rape, burnings, and mass executions. It is a relentless and powerful force in Syria as it controls a third of the land (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). MAJOR COUNTRIES AND ORGANIZATIONS INVOLVED Syrian Armed Forces (Syria) The Syrian Armed Forces are controlled directly by Assad s Regime. They fight against opposition forces. They were one of the organizations that began the Syrian Civil War in 2011. The forces of Syria have been accused of using chemical weapons along with more conventional arms to repress the civilians of Syria. There are approximately 325,000 active troops and 300,000 reserve troops (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). National Defense Forces (Syria) The National Defense Forces are pro Assad forces composed of multiple militia. They are payed by the government and work as volunteers. There are 100,000 troops that are primarily infantry. These forces are on the front lines of the battle and coordinate themselves with the Syrian Armed Forces (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). Hezbollah Hezbollah is a pro government organization that has been fighting for the Syrian Armed Forces by regaining control in opposition occupied villages. Approximately 3,000 Hezbollah militants have been recruited to fight in Syria. In 2013, the organization commenced a campaign to attack other Jihadists such as ISIL. In 2014, the death toll for Hezbollah fighters was 500 (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). Iran Iran has been sending combat units into Syria to provide military guidance and more infantry. Support from Iran has come into Syria ever since the beginning of the civil war in 2011. In 2013, there were 10,000 Iranian operatives in Syria (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). Russia The Russian government has been using Russian Armed Forces in Syria since September of 2015. The main target of Russia s Airstrikes has been Opposition forces (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). Research Report Page 4 of 13
China Although no action has been taken yet, China has denounced ISIL on multiple occasions. Currently the Chinese aircraft carrier, Liaoning, has been seen in the Persian Gulf along with guided missiles (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). Free Syrian Army The Free Syrian Army is a military organization that opposes the Assad Regime. The group consists of defected Syrian Armed Forces soldiers. The organization started on the 29 th of July, 2011. Although the FSA has limited resources, the organization has tried hard to face the Assad regime (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). Islamic Front The Islamic Front is composed of 7 different militia and opposes the Assad regime. The organization does not have ties with the FSA and is backed by Saudi Arabia with weaponry and money (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). Western Coalition The Western Coalition is comprised of United States, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, France, Jordan, The Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom. The nations conduct airstrikes against ISIL and associates of the Assad regime. The Coalition works closely with the FSA to gather intelligence on the location of Assaddominated military camps (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). ISIL The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is a group of militants that enforces Sharia law in the towns that they dominate. It is notorious for its human rights offences and is noted as the most violent extremist group in Syria. ISIL has approximately 7,000 fighters and controls large parts of northern Syria (Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News). TIMELINE OF KEY EVENTS 15 March 2011 Arab Spring Protests Citizens protest for more democratic government in Syria. Research Report Page 5 of 13
The Syrian Armed Forces respond violently with armored infantry to suppress protests against the regime (War in Syria: Timeline of Key Events). 29 July 2011 Assad Opposition Forces that oppose Assad such as the FSA began to gain strength (War in Syria: Timeline of Key Events). 8 November 2011 Escalation of Conflict FSA and Syrian Armed Forces units began fighting all throughout Syria, especially in Homs (War in Syria: Timeline of Key Events). 21 August 2013 Suspected Use of Chemical Weapons, but the offenders have not be identified. Rockets with Sarin were launched in Syria causing at least 1,000 deaths (War in Research Report Page 6 of 13
Syria: Timeline of Key Events). 5 June 2014 United States Airstrikes The United States began targeting ISIL hot spots in Syria with airstrikes, in order to relieve pressure on the prodemocratic rebels (War in Syria: Timeline of Key Events). September 2015 Russian Intervention The Russian air force carries out bombings against opposition organizations but claims it is attacking members of the Islamic State (War in Syria: Timeline of Key Events).. Research Report Page 7 of 13
February 2016 Peace In Aleppo The United States and Russia organized a partial ceasefire between the Assad Regime fighters and major rebel opposition groups. However, the Islamic State are not included in the deal, so Islamic State inflicted conflict still occurs (War in Syria: Timeline of Key Events). RELEVANT UN RESOLUTIONS, TREATIES AND EVENTS The situation in Syria is one that is of high importance due to the number of refugees and displaces persons due to the conflict in Syria. The United Nations has been focused on solving humanitarian crises in Syria. For example, a group named, United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS), has been formed to respond to the civil war. The following resolutions reflect the effort of the UN. The Syrian Civil War Observer Force: United Nations Resolution 2042, 14 April, 2012 Authorizes the sending of 30 unarmed observers to check the status of ceasefire Establishes of the United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria: United Nations Resolution 2043, 21 April, 2012 Maintains the integrity of ceasefire Research Report Page 8 of 13
Renews mandate of Syrian Observer Mission for 30 days: United Nations Resolution 2059, 20 July, 2012 Revisions were made to resolution 2042 by adding the duration: 30 days Syrian civil war, Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons: United Nations Resolution 2118, 27 September, 2013 Designed to aid the removal of chemical weapons Syrian civil war, access for humanitarian aid: United Nations Resolution 2139, February 22, 2014 Permits access for aid groups Syrian civil war, Humanitarian situation in Syria and the establishment of a monitoring mechanism: United Nations Resolution 2165, 14 July, 2014 Elaborates on an implementation of a monitoring system and accessibility for humanitarian aid systems. Syrian civil war, Chemical weapons in Syria: United Nations Resolution 2209, 6 March, 2015 Sets a plan for chemical weapons removal Syrian civil war, Cease fire: United Nations Resolution 2254, 18 December, 2015 Plans of a potential cease fire PREVIOUS ATTEMPTS TO SOLVE THE Geneva II Conference on Syria/ Action Group The Geneva Conference was held in 2012 to provide possible solutions for peace in Syria. The plan aims to match an opposition delegate and an Assad regime delegate to agree on a plan for transitional government to commence the beginning of the New Syrian Republic. The communique is the plan for the action group to implement in Syria. The communique, the plan, includes: Plans for a compromised future for Syria Sets clear deadlines and respective objectives Research Report Page 9 of 13
Offers stability for all parties Is achieved in the most peaceful manner possible Full representation of all genders Establishment of a constitution The main obstacles for this solution were the unwillingness to participate by the Assad delegates and the opposition delegates. Tensions were still very high between the two warring groups. Thus, this solution was not very successful (Here s What You Need to Know about the Syria Peace Talks). Geneva III Conference on Syria/ International Syrian Support Group This conference was prepared to improve on the mistakes of the previous Geneva conference. The conference was held as a preliminary negotiation session between the belligerent sides. However, the two sides were not able to meet as the opposition High Negotiation Committee (NHC), because the NHC stated that the Assad regime were still attacking opposition forces, even after a ceasefire was agreed upon. Thus, it was arranged to only converse between the UN and the NHC as the NHC would not fully participate if a delegate of the Assad regime was present. On January 29 th, the convention was held, and the NHC alerted the UN that the Assad regime may be planning an attack on the city of Aleppo. Thus, the talks were suspended as the UN did not want to be involved the attack of Aleppo. This solution was somewhat successful, although the main intention was to have both parties present at the discussion (Here s What You Need to Know about the Syria Peace Talks). Geneva III Conference on Syria/ Resolution 2254 Although the conference had lacked to produce a complete depth in discussion between the parties, the conference sparked the implementation of Resolution 2254. The resolution states the following: Reconfirms the ideals of the communique Emphasizes the need for verification methods of ceasefire Calls on parties to allow humanitarian aid into the country Demands that parties cease to attack civilian or civilian aid units The ceasefire mechanism of the resolution was successful for a limited amount of time, because of the roaring tension between the countries (Here s What You Need to Know about the Syria Peace Talks). POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS Research Report Page 10 of 13
Establishment of Long Term Ceasefire A ceasefire is desperately needed in Syria to allow Regime delegates and Opposition delegates time to gather and organize their opinions on the future of Syria. As seen before in the middle east a ceasefire is vital to the progress of the region, and failure to do so can lead to political collapse. For example, in the Arab Israeli conflicts of 1957, conflict arose and escalate due to multiple unsuccessful attempts of ceasefire. A ceasefire is very dependent on the trust between the two sides to uphold the guidelines of the ceasefire. However, in the Israeli Palestine conflict, both nations were not determined enough to maintain the peace, and thus the fighting escalated, especially since the conflict was at its core driven largely by hatred. However, the mid 1990s served as a breakthrough in peace attempts. Both nations had respectable delegates that spoke truly and freely about the situation at hand. Thus, a ceasefire was successfully upheld (Ceasefire Beyond Intractability). Separation of Peace Talks A large issue in the Syrian civil war is the tension between opposition forces and regime forces. In order to facilitate a combined and comprehensive peace talk, it is important that separate talks be held through the UN. Thus, the UN will have a clear idea of the desires of both parties for the future of Syria and will be able to prepare accordingly to eventually bring the two sides together for one impactful discussion about the transition of Syria. This solutions has been successful during the Iraq Iran conflict. When neither nations would obey a ceasefire, a separate meeting with the United States for each nation allowed the United States to facilitate more productive debate when the two sides actually met (Iran- Iraq War). Establishment of Human Aid Zones A large crisis in Syria is the refugee increase. A method of rescuing civilians is to have zones in hotspots where civilians can get water, food, and any other medical supplies. This zone would be implemented during ceasefires, and soldiers would be positioned to guard the public from Jihadist groups that may be lurking. This system was successful in Afghanistan after a ceasefire was settled upon. Currently, the IRC has helped 63,000 children receive primary schooling even in high risk communities (The IRC in Afghanistan). WORKS Research Report Page 11 of 13
Works Cited Baleo, Marie. "Can Resolution 2254 End the War in Syria?" Ntt. N.p., 14 Jan. 2016. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <https://nottmagazine.com/2016/01/14/can-resolution-2254-end-thewar-in-syria/>. Blight, Garry, Sheila Pulham, and Paul Torpey. "Arab Spring: An Interactive Timeline of Middle East Protests." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 22 Mar. 2011. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2011/mar/22/middle-east-protestinteractive-timeline>. "Ceasefire Beyond Intractability." Ceasefire Beyond Intractability. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/cease-fire>. Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations, n.d. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/conflict/civil-war-insyria>. History.com Staff. "Iran-Iraq War." History.com. A&E Television Networks, 01 Jan. 2009. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <http://www.history.com/topics/iran-iraq-war>. "The IRC in Afghanistan." Humanitarian Aid and Development in Afghanistan. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <http://www.rescue.org/irc-afghanistan>. Morello, Carol. "Here s What You Need to Know about the Syria Peace Talks." Washington Post. The Washington Post, n.d. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/02/11/what-you-needto-know-about-the-syria-peace-talks/>. "Syria: The Story of the Conflict - BBC News." BBC News. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868>. "War in Syria: Timeline of Key Events." Alaraby. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Apr. 2016. <https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2015/3/13/timeline-syria-4-years-ofdevastation>. Research Report Page 12 of 13
APPENDIX OR APPENDICES http://www.bbc.com/news/world middle east 26116868 Provides a very broad overview of the Syrian conflicts. It is a great introductory resource. This site is great for understanding the connection between the Syrian conflicts and those of other middle eastern nations. http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2011/mar/22/middle east protestinteractive timeline https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/02/11/what you need toknow about the syria peace talks/ This article is very detailed on the current stages of the civil war. The report is detailed and will introduce the stances of different players of the war at this time. Research Report Page 13 of 13