How Many are We Today? The Demographic Perspective

Brandeis University, October 23-24, 2011 Plenary 4: Numbering the Jews PROVISIONAL, REVISED 0CT 23 NOT YET FOR QUOTATION How Many are We Today? The Demographic Perspective Sergio DellaPergola Professor Emeritus The A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry The Hebrew University of Jerusalem 1

MAIN APPROACHES IN THE STUDY OF US JEWISH DEMOGRAPHY Approach Examples Advantages Disadvantages Original data (also) aimed at national Jewish population estimate 1. Jewish sponsored largescale ad-hoc national survey 2. Compilation of local Jewish community surveys 3. Meta-analysis of Jewish subsamples from general national surveys 4. Compilation of current records of Jewish population change: vital statistics, migration data, conversions 5. Jewish sponsored ad-hoc longitudinal panel 6. Jewish enhanced general national survey NJPS, AJIS, HARI. AJYB, NAJDB. SSRI project. HIAS. No other central source in the US. Examples in Europe, Latin America. Not yet attempted. Not yet attempted. Detailed contents. Consistency in inter-group comparisons. Secondary source, relatively low cost of data collection. Secondary source, relatively low cost of data collection. Insights on sociodemographic change over time. Detailed contents. Consistent monitoring of change patterns. Less costly than Jewish ad-hoc national survey. High cost of truly representative sample. Relatively low response rates. No definitional or contents homogeneity. No synchronism. No definitional or contents homogeneity. No synchronism. Fragmented sources. Limited scope of contents. Lack of coverage, esp. marriage and conversion. Gradual phasing out of sample and need to replace. Less detailed than Jewish ad-hoc national survey. Yes. No. No. No. Possibly. Possibly. 2

CONFIGURING CONTEMPORARY JEWISH POPULATIONS Jewish ancestry ever Law of Return Enlarged: CORE, not declared CORE, declared, not by religion CORE, declared, by religion Total persons in households with core Jews or raised Jewish For illustrative purposes only: not proportional to actual populations 3

PROCESSES AFFECTING JEWISH POPULATION SIZE AND COMPOSITION Explanatory factors Proximate variables, including policy interventions Population related processes Dependent variables Natural increase: World system inequalities Longevity, mortality National context Marriage, fertility Community context Personal characteristics: (Process specific) Migration balance: Immigration, immigrants absorption Population size Gender Socio-economic Emigration Identification balance: Population composition by ethnicity, religion Culturalidentificational Jewish identity, accessions Assimilation, secessions Territorial balance: Boundary changes 4

3 US Jewish Women's Fertility 1970-2001 Children born, by mother's birth year 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 40-44 30-34 20-24 0-1895 1900-05 1910-15 1920-25 1930-35 1940-45 1950-55 1960-65 1970-75 1895-00 1905-10 1915-20 1925-30 1935-40 1945-50 1955-60 1965-70 1975-80 1970 1990 2001 5

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES: JEWS IN ISRAEL; JEWS AND TOTAL IN THE U.S. - 1947-2010 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 TFR Children 2.00 Israel Jews U.S. Jews U.S. Total pop. 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1947-51 1952-56 1957-61 1962-66 1967-71 1972-76 1977-81 1982-86 1987-91 1992-96 1997-01 2002-06 2007-08 2010 6

JEWISH INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION BALANCE ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES 1948-2010 500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 Israel U.S. 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1948-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-05 2006-08 2009-10 7

PEW 2007 SURVEY ADULTS ENTERING AND LEAVING JEWISH GROUP Percent of US total population Childhood religion Entering group Leaving group Current religion 1.9 +0.3-0.5 1.7 8

6500 MAIN US (CORE) JEWISH POPULATION SURVEY ESTIMATES 1957-2010 6250?? 6000 CPS 5750 NJPS AJIS Thousands 5500 5250 5000? HARI ARIS-DP SSRI 4750 4500? 4250 4000 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010 9

SURVEY BASED US (CORE) JEWISH POPULATION PROJECTIONS 1957-2010 6000 Thousands 5750 5500 5250 5000 4750 AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ CPS NJPS AJIS ARIS-DP HARI 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI SSRI-DP Pew-DPL Pew-DPH 4500 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 10

7000 MAIN US (CORE) JEWISH POPULATION ESTIMATES, 1945-2010 Thousands 6750 6500 6250 6000 5750 5500 5250 5000 4750 4500 4250 AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ CPS NJPS AJIS ARIS-DP HARI 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI SSRI-DP Pew-DPL Pew-DPH 4000 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 11

7000 MAIN US (CORE) JEWISH POPULATION ESTIMATES 1990-2010 Thousands 6750 6500 6250 6000 5750 5500 5250 5000 4750 4500 4250 AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ CPS NJPS AJIS ARIS-DP HARI 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI SSRI-DP Pew-DPL Pew-DPH 4000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 12

READING NJPS 1990-2001 Birth Cohort Age 1990 Actual 1990 Age 2001 Projected 2001 Actual Diff. 2001 % Diff. 2001 Act- Act- Proj Proj Total 5,515,000 Total 5,367,244 5,035,468-331,776-6.2 1990-2000 0-9 514,095 515,146 1,051 0.2 1970-1990 0-19 1,299,755 10-29 1,305,271 1,291,741-13,530-1.0 1950-1970 20-39 1,687,154 30-49 1,624,543 1,338,527-286,016-17.6-1950 40+ 2,528,091 50+ 1,923,333 1,890,055-33,278-1.7 NJPS 2001 originally computed total core Jewish population: 5,035,468 NJPS 2001 estimated total core Jewish population: 5,200,000 NJPS 2001 our revised total core Jewish population estimate: 5,367,244 ± 2.8% error, Jewish population range: 5,217,000 5,517,000 13

READING SSRI META-ANALYSIS 2000 1990-2005 U.S. social surveys (n = 74): Median percent Jewish adults = 1.94% Ratio of Jewish to total population allowing for lower share of persons under 20: 130/139 = 0.935 1.94% * 0.935 = 1.814% 2000 U.S. total population = 281,421,906 Median U.S. Jewish population (by religion) in 2000: 1.814% * 281,421,906 = 5,104,993 Average survey response rate on religion:.95 Jewish population adjusted for non-response/no religion: 5,104,712 /.95 = 5,373,677 14

READING PEW SURVEY OF US RELIGION 2007 Percent Jewish by religion out of total weighted sample: 1.669% Children under 18 per 100 adults: Total 35, Jewish 28 Correction factor due to fewer under 18:.948 Percent in mixed households: 31% Assumed Jewish children in mixed households: 35% Correction factor for non-jewish children:.956 Corrected percent Jewish by religion: 1.669% *.948 *.956 = 1.512% Estimated Jewish population by religion in 2007: 1.512% * 301,580,000 = 4,559,890 Average survey response rate on religion:.831 Jewish population adjusted for non-response/no religion: 4,559,890 /.831 = 5,487,232 Sampling error: ±4.5% Jewish population range: 5,240,307-5,734,157 15

COMPARISON OF NJPS 2001 REVISED ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS AND PEW 2007 SURVEY 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 ±4.5% Thousands 5,400 5,300 ±2.8% ±2.8% 5,200 5,100 5,000 4,900 NJPS 2001-DP Pew 2007 NJPS 2010-DP 16

7000 6500 US JEWISH AND TOTAL, AND ISRAEL POPULATION ESTIMATES 1945-2010 Thousands 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ CPS NJPS AJIS ARIS-DP HARI 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI SSRI-DP Pew-DPL Pew-DPH US Tot/100 Isr J 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 17

DECENNIAL PERCENT POPULATION GROWTH 1950-2020 40.0 35.0 10 Years Percent Growth 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 AJYB/ShDa Rosenwaike ICJ NJPS ARIS-DP 1957 Proj SchDP(a) 1970 Proj 1990 Proj 2001 Proj M SSRI US Tot/100 Isr J -5.0-10.0 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 18

19 U.S. JEWISH POPULATION BY AGE, 1957-2001 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 1957 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 1970 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 1990 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 2001?

U.S. JEWISH POPULATION BY AGE, 2001-2026 2001 CORRECTED 2006 30.0 30.0 25.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 Percent 15.0 Percent 15.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 0.0 0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ 0.0 0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ 2011 2016 30.0 30.0 25.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 Percent 15.0 Percent 15.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 0.0 0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ 0.0 0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ 2021 2026 30.0 30.0 25.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 Percent 15.0 Percent 15.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ 5.0 0.0 0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+ 20

Year HOW MANY ARE WE TODAY? DEMOGRAPHY'S ANSWER, 1950-2020 U.S. Core Jewish Population Main source 1950 4,680,000 Rosenwaike 1960 5,197,000 Rosenwaike, CPS 1970 5,420,000 NJPS 1980 5,560,000 NJPS Projection 1990 5,515,000 NJPS 2000 5,367,000 Corrected NJPS, AJIS, SSRI 2010 5,425,000 Corr. NJPS Projection, PEW 2020 5,343,000 Corrected NJPS Projection 21

5750 HOW MANY ARE WE TODAY? DEMOGRAPHY'S ANSWER, 1950-2020 Echo effect 5500 Second echo ± Thousands 5250 5000 Baby boom ± ± ± 4750 4500 22 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

U.S. JEWISH POPULATION: ALTERNATIVE DEFINITIONAL CRITERIA, 2011 Criterion Millions Trend Orthodox: Jewish denomination preferred ± 0.7 Growth Active: Volunteer to community work ± 1.5 Decline Community: Jewish organization affiliated ± 3.0 Decline Religion: Declare to be Jewish by religion ± 4.6 Up Down Demography: Core Jewish population ± 5.4 Up Down Ancestry: Have Jewish parents ± 6.8 Growth Enlarged: Total population in Jewish households ± 8.0 Growth Law of Return: Eligible for Israeli citizenship ± 12.0 Growth Ancestry ever: Jewish ancestry at any time in the past?? Growth Source: Author's estimates. 23

CONCLUDING REMARKS Definitional and analytic rules in the study of American Jewry need to follow two basic strands: Jews in the United States integrally pertain to American society, and consequently share and respond to changing socioeconomic and cultural stimuli in the country. Jews have often anticipated national trends, occasionally they have been late joiners. American Jews, inasmuch as they are part of world Jewry, belong to a transnational entity sharing and affected by significant commonalities and global processes. These two constraints have determined the past, and will delimit the future range of the possible and of the plausible trends and patterns of American Jewish demography. Yes, we can be one epistemic community. 24