A Statistical Overview of the Grand Canyon Synod With comparisons to Rocky Mountain, Northern Texas Northern Louisiana, Southwestern Texas, and Texas Louisiana Gulf Coast Synods Research and Evaluation, Office of the Presiding Bishop Evangelical Luthern Church in America November 2017 Territory The Grand Canyon Synod of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America covers 153,781 square miles. The smallest area covered by a synod is Saint Paul Area synod (1,535 square miles) whereas the largest area covered is Alaska (571,951 square miles). The median territory covered is 22,000 square miles. Twenty synods in the ELCA cover 10,000 square miles or less. Figure 1 shows the territory of the synods in the report. 1 Figure 1: Territory of the Synods Thousands 500 400 2E 415.59 300 Square Miles 200 2D 153.78 4D 139.93 100 4E 79.16 4F 58.07 0 1 For a better fit, we condensed synod names: 2D is Grand Canyon, 2E is Rocky Mountain, 4D is Northern Texas Northern Louisiana, 4E is Southwestern Texas and 4F is Texas Louisiana Gulf Coast Synod. See Section 10.01.01 of the Constitution, Bylaws and Continuing Resolutions of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America for the boundaries of each synod. 2D Overview Page 1 of 9
Figure 2 shows the number of ELCA baptized members per square mile in these synods. Grand Canyon Synod reported a total of 44,554 baptized members in 2016, which is approximately one baptized member per three square miles. This compares to one member per two square miles in Texas Louisiana Gulf Coast and one member per ten square miles in Rocky Mountain Synod. Figure 2: Baptized ELCA Members per Square Mile (as of 2016) 4F, 0.6 4E, 0.4 2D, 0.3 4D, 0.2 2E, 0.1 0 0.5 1 Baptized ELCA Lutherans per Square Mile Per the 2010 Census, Grand Canyon had a population of 8,393,360. The 2017 estimate is 9,189,776; the 2022 projection is estimated at 9,754,327, an increase of 6.14 percent. The 44,554 baptized members (as of 2016) account for 0.5 percent of the 2016 population; in 2000, the 76,587 baptized members accounted for 1.2 percent of the 6,544,023 people in the synod s territory (see Table 1). Table 1: Population and Membership General Population ELCA Baptized Members Members as % of Population 2000 6,544,023 76,992 1.17 2010 8,393,360 55,751 0.66 2016 9,031,863 44,554 0.49 2D Overview Page 2 of 9
Baptized Membership and Worship Attendance At the end of 2016, Grand Canyon had 89 organized congregations; at the end of 2010 there were 94 organized congregations. In 2005, the synod reported 109 congregations and in 2000, it reported 105 (see below). Figure 3: Number of Congregations The number of congregations has declined 15 percent since 2000. 120 100 105 109 94 89 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2005 2010 2016 In 2016, the total baptized membership of the synod was 44,554 or an average of 500 baptized members per congregation. For the ELCA, the average number of baptized members per congregation was 391 in 2016. During 2016, the congregations in the Grand Canyon Synod baptized 612 children and 86 adults while affirming the faith of 1013 adults. As a point of comparison, the synod reported losing 2,924 members (592 to death) during this same time. As Figure 4 shows, Grand Canyon has narrowed the gap between members received and lost since 2011. 2 In 2016, the aggregate worship attendance on a typical Sunday was 21,874 (49% of baptized membership) with an average Sunday attendance per congregation of 245. The average number of attendees per congregation for the ELCA was 101 (26 percent of baptized members). This suggests congregations in the Grand Canyon Synod are attracting a considerably higher number of baptized members to worship relative to the rest of the ELCA, an impressive feat. In 2016, 57 percent congregations had average worship attendance of 126 or greater. These congregations account for 86 percent of the synod s overall worship attendance (see Figure 5). In 2006, congregations with 126 or more in average attendance accounted for 67 percent of congregations and 92 percent of average attendance, suggesting some larger congregations are declining. 2 For this statistic, we only used the number of child and adult baptisms and subtracted this from the number of reported deaths, like the rate of natural increase. 2D Overview Page 3 of 9
Figure 4: Difference Between Members Received and Lost, 2011 2016 2000 1133 1000 786 613 620 731 698 0 629 557 586 589 645 592 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 received lost Figure 5: Distribution of Worship Attendance and Congregations 100% 86% 50% 57% 17% 0% 0% 5% 1% 7% 2% 6% 3% 9% 8% 1 to 25 26 to 50 51 to 75 76 to 100 101 to 125 126 or more Worship Attendance Congregations 2D Overview Page 4 of 9
Figure 6 shows the trend in worship attendance for synods comparable to the Grand Canyon Synod between 2010 and 2016. As the figure indicates, overall attendance is in decline for the synods cited in this report, with Southwestern Texas (4E) showing a decline of 28 percent between 2010 and 2016. Figure 6: Aggregate Worship Attendance, Selected Synods, 2010 and 2016 Thousands 30 25 20 2D 26.62 2E 23.52 4E 16.04 21.87 18.71 15 10 4F 14.10 4D 11.65 11.53 8.67 11.21 5 0 Giving Total giving (undesignated and designated giving) in 2016 for Grand Canyon Synod totaled $42,561,524 or $1,946 per worship attendee. In 2010, total giving was $42,809,116 and $1,608 per attendee. Total giving in 2016 (adjusted for 2010 dollars) is $38,628,555. 3 This suggests despite a higher per capita rate of giving, the Grand Canyon Synod has not been able to offset losses due to the decline in worship attendance (see Figure 7). 3 We used Tom s Inflation Calculator and the CPI to calculate these figures. 2D Overview Page 5 of 9
Figure 7: Giving per Attendee, Selected Synods, 2010, 2016 in 2010 dollars, and 2016 Actual $3,000 2010, 4F $2,000 2010, 2D 2010, 2E 2010, 4D 2010, 4E $1,000 $0 Operating expenses for the synod in 2010 were $36.3 million, or 71% of the approximately $51 million in disbursements; in 2016 operating expenses were $33.4 million, or 64 percent of the approximately $52 million in disbursements. When looking at operating expense as a percentage of total giving, we see most synods in this analysis covering their operating expenses with sufficient margin (see Figure 8). 2D Overview Page 6 of 9
Figure 8: Operating Expenses as Percentage of Total Giving (% in Grey) Millions $50 $43 $47 84% 87% 94% 100% $40 78% $40 77% $30 $33 $29 $30 $25 $25 $28 50% $20 $19 $10 $0 2D 2E 4D 4E 4F 0% Mission support, the amount of money shared through congregations for the ministries of synods and the ELCA churchwide expression, from the Grand Canyon Synod as a percentage of regular giving was 5.0 percent in 2016. Table 2 shows mission support per attendee and as a percentage for selected synods. Table 2: 2016 Mission Support per Attendee and as Percentage 4 per attendee as % of undesignated giving 2D Grand Canyon $85.34 5.0 2E Rocky Mountain $116.63 5.2 4D Northern Texas Northern Louisiana $139.87 5.7 4E Southwestern Texas $129.00 5.9 4F Texas Louisiana Gulf Coast $121.01 5.0 ELCA $104.17 5.6 4 Mission support figures came from the CD170 Summary of Congregation Statistics report. Per attendee figure is calculated based on the reported mission support divided by the synod s reported aggregate worship attendance. 2D Overview Page 7 of 9
The Synod Office and its Financial Resources Section 10.21 of the Constitution, Bylaws and Continuing Resolutions of the Evangelical lutheran church in America outs the primary purpose of synod offices: 10.21 Each synod, in partnership with the churchwide organization, shall bear primary responsibility for the oversight of life and mission of this church in its territory. In fulfillment of this role and consistent with policies and procedures of this church the synod shall: a) provide for pastoral care of congregations and rostered leaders in the synod; b) plan for, facilitate, and nurture the mission of this church through congregations; c) strengthen interdependent relationships among congregations, synods and the churchwide organization, and foster relationships with agencies and institutions affiliated with or related to this church as well as ecumenical partners; d) interpret the work of this church to congregations and to the public territory of the synod. Despite the consistency of responsibilities, the amount of money available to synod offices to carry out these responsibilities varies widely. Table 3 shows all the synods referenced in this report and the amount of mission support income to them. Table 3: Mission Support for Selected Synods, 2016 5 From Congregations to Synods Amount Remaining in Synod Percent to Churchwide Amount to Churchwide 2D Grand Canyon $1,866,680 50% $933,340 $933,340 2E Rocky Mountain $2,182,469 50% $1,091,235 $1,091,235 4D Northern Texas Northern Louisiana $1,213,214 48% $582,343 $630,871 4E Southwestern Texas $1,487,139 52% $773,312 $713,827 4F Texas Louisiana Gulf Coast $1,356,880 50% $678,440 $678,440 As Figure 9 shows, the actual dollar amount of congregational giving to the synod for mission support has stabilized since 2010, if not slightly increased. However, mission support appeared to peak in 2007 with the total nearing $2.87 million, and then declined between 2008 and 2010 in the amount of nearly $1 million. Some of this decline is likely due to at least 10 congregations leaving the synod and ELCA as a results of decisions made at the 2009 Churchwide Assembly. 5 These amounts are from 2016 Synods Detailed Remittance report as of 31 January 2017 worksheet. To calculate From Congregations to Synod figures, we divided Amount to Churchwide by Percent to Churchwide. 2D Overview Page 8 of 9
Figure 9: Congregational Giving to Mission Support for Grand Canyon Synod Actual and Adjusted for 2005 Dollars Millions $3 $2.84 $2.74 $2.74 $2.74 $2.66 $2.68 $2.60 $2.36 $2.20 $2 $2.01 $1.80 $1.75 $1.85 $1.79 $1.84 $1.80 $1.82 $1.62 $1.52 $1.57 $1.50 $1.52 $1.48 $1.48 $1 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Grand Canyon Synod Bishop Election Questionnaire In Fall of 2017, Grand Canyon Synod conducted a brief survey asking respondents about their congregations successes and struggles, outreach efforts and what responsibilities they consider it important the synod office perform. Respondents were also asked about expectations of the bishop and synod office, as well as what the two priorities will be during the bishop s six year term. The questionnaire was made available in both English and Spanish through various media, including social media, websites, PDFs and email invitation; a summary follows. Respondents seem to be looking for the new bishop to do the following: provide congregations and rostered ministers with care, support and leadership as well as offer leadership development to leaders and congregations. Congregations and members will offer prayerful and financial support to the synod office and a willingness to support the bishop s vision and plan. The synod should consider its top two priorities over the next six years to be evangelism and strengthening and supporting current congregations. 2D Overview Page 9 of 9