Non-Religious Demographics and the Canadian Census Speech delivered at the Centre For Inquiry Ontario April 29, 2011 Contact: Greg Oliver President Canadian Secular Alliance president@secularalliance.ca Canadian Secular Alliance 216 Beverley Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5T 1Z3 www.secularalliance.ca
The history of the census in Canada dates back to 1666 in the colony of New France. In 1765, just after the conquest of Quebec by the British in the Seven Years War, the census data including religious affiliation first appeared as assessing the delicate balance between Catholics and Protestants became a pressing concern. Since the first post-confederation census in 1871, religious affiliation has been recorded once every ten years and will again be a part of the now optional long form questionnaire given to approximately 32% of households in the 2011 Census. The wording of the religious affiliation question that has been asked since 1971 is What is this person s religion? Indicate a specific denomination or religion even if this person is not currently a practising member of that group. For example, Roman Catholic, Ukrainian Catholic, United Church, Anglican, Lutheran, Baptist, Greek Orthodox, Jewish, Islam, Buddhist, Hindu, Sikh, etc.. The respondent has the option to write in a religious denomination or select the No religion checkbox. Note that the question is worded in a way that encourages non-practising Canadians to choose a religious affiliation even though this may conflict with their actual religious worldview. But I ll get to that later. First let s check out the what the results have been No religion has gone from 0.5% in 1961, to 4.3% in 1971, to 7.4% in 1981, to 12.6% in 1991 and up to 16.5% in 2001. According to the 2001 data, no religion represents the second largest religious demographic behind Christianity and is 2.6 times larger than all non-christian denominations combined. 18% 16% 14% 12% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
In the period between 1991 and 2001, No Religion was the fastest growing group in total numbers, increasing from 3.4 to 4.9 million. This was an increase of about 1.5 million, while all other denominations combined increased by about 1.2 million during this period. +2000000 +1500000 +1000000 +500000 +0-500000 -1000000 No Religion Roman Catholic Christian (other) Muslim Hindu Buddhist Sikh Orthodox Jewish Protestant About 37% of people in the Yukon reported they had no religion, the highest proportion among the provinces and territories. It was followed by British Columbia at 35% and Alberta at 23%. In contrast, only 2.5% of the population of Newfoundland and Labrador reported no religion which was the lowest - followed by Quebec at 5.6%.
4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% B.C. Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia P.E.I. Nfld. & Labrador Yukon/NWT/NU If examined by age, only about 6.3% of those over the age of 55 reported no religion, which is far below the 35% for the 25 to 44 year old range. No religion also had among the lowest median ages of all major denominations in 2001 at 31.1 years. Only Muslims and Sikhs were younger. By contrast the Presbyterian median age was 46. As well, among the immigrants admitted to Canada between 1991 and 2001, 21.3% claimed no religion. 35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+ What does this mean for the future? Perhaps you ve been able to identify somewhat of a trend going on here. Also, since 2001 we ve had 9/11, we ve had the so-called new atheists publish a series of best-selling books. It s safe to say that irreligion in general has had a far greater level of media attention and public debate in the last decade than in the decade before it. So what can we expect in the
future? Well, according to StatsCan, not very much change at all. In 2010, they released a publication called Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population. In this paper their data modeling projected No Religion at 17.5% of the population in 2006, and increasing to 20.9% by 2031. But, as I alluded to earlier, the question itself is currently worded in a way that systematically understates the actual number of Canadians who have no religious beliefs. Encouraging people to choose a religious affiliation even if they don t actually practice a religion will inevitably lead some people to select the religious affiliation of their parents or ethnic community, even though they might not actually believe anything about the religion itself. Other recent surveys support this claim. In a 2008 Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey, 23% of respondents said that they did not believe in a god, while 6% offered no opinion, which actually means the figure is 25% when properly adjusted. For respondents under the age of 25, this figure was 36%, or 39% of those who answered the question. This figure presumably would not include deists, who believe the universe to be the deliberate creation of an intelligent being, but who reject religion on the grounds that they believe it to be a creation of man. In 2010, a smaller survey of 420 Canadians by Carleton University Survey Centre and the Montrealbased Association for Canadian Studies found 2 said they don't believe in a "personal God" but "do believe in a higher power", 12% adopted the classic agnostic position and said they "don't know whether there is a God and don't believe there is a way to find out", and 7% said no god exists. That would make a total of 39% with no religion. Another example of this structural underestimation is Quebec. According to the 2001 census, only 5.6% of Quebec s population has no religion approximately one third of the national average. For those of you who are not already aware, Quebecois nationalism has been a very potent force in Canadian politics - past and present. And the Roman Catholic church was historically a huge part of Quebec s cultural identity. Since the Quiet Revolution in the 1960 s, the role of religion in Quebec society has changed and nowadays it is often regarded as the least religious province in the country. In the aforementioned 2008 Harris-Decima poll, 67% of French Canadians claimed to believe in a god, slightly less likely than their counterparts in English Canada at 73%. But only 3.9% of Canadians who only speak French claimed No Religion in the 2001 Census. Furthermore, every three years StatsCan contributes to a survey called The National Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating. The purpose of this survey is to gather data on charities but it also gathers data on the rate of attendance at religious services. In 2007, 17% of Canadians were said to have attended religious services on a weekly basis. In Quebec, the rate was only - which was the lowest in the nation. B.C. was the second lowest province at 16.2%.
35% 3 25% 2 15% 5% B.C. Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia P.E.I. Nfld. & Labrador Yukon/NWT/NU When the current census question reports that Quebec has a rate of irreligion that is one third of the national average, you know you re dealing with highly flawed or perhaps even intentionally misleading statistical methodology. And the StatsCan projection that only 20.9% of Canadians will be nonreligious in 2031 is also pretty difficult to take seriously by any reasonable standard. Just last month, the American Physical Society projected that Canada will be 61% non-religious by 2050. Now, admittedly it s very difficult to accurately project that far into the future. But this figure strikes me as a lot more likely to be accurate than any estimate put out by StatsCan. Another significant issue affecting accuracy of the census is the recent Conservative decision to scrap the mandatory long form census. Until recently, the long form census was handed out to 2 of households and was mandatory to fill out. Jail time was a potential legal consequence but had never been used. This past year, the Conservatives announced the elimination of the long form census, insisting that it violated privacy rights. The other major parties were willing to eliminate the threat of incarceration but insisted that the long form questionnaire remain mandatory. So a compromise was met, which resulted in the long form questionnaire remaining but becoming voluntary and sent out to 32% of households instead of just 2, starting with the 2011 census. The response rate is expected to fall from 94% to 5. This resulted in the resignation of the Chief Statistician of Canada, who is a deputy of the Minister of Industry. What does this mean for reporting of religious affiliation? Well, it may result in the figure for No Religion being higher or lower than it otherwise would have been. However, it also means that the figure will be less credible than it otherwise would have been. This is particularly unfortunate for the non-religious community because we stand to gain significant numbers looking forward. Even though the question as it stands is biased against us and independent polls will still be conducted to document
our growth, it is by far the most respected and reported figure and now it will be less credible. The census has a much larger sample size than any other conceivable poll and is relied upon heavily for government policy and political advocacy. So what can be done to fix this situation? First of all, the question on the census questionnaire needs to be changed to remove the bias against irreligion. This can be done simply by eliminating the line that encourages non-practicing Canadians to pick a religion. As well, the definition of No Religion should be clarified or expanded to distinguish between deists and agnostic/atheists. Secondly, it wouldn t hurt to add a question about the rate of religious participation. The only way to fix this is through StatsCan or parliament. Four years prior to each census, StatsCan commissions a census content consultation, where the public is invited to make suggestions to improve the census. The submissions are then reviewed and decided upon internally. This is the time when change is most likely to occur. Unfortunately, we won t have this opportunity again until 2017. In the short term, the most important thing we can do is encourage people to complete this year s long form census and check the No Religion box if they aren t actually practicing a religion. I would discourage people from writing atheist or agnostic or humanist in the blank space. Approximately 100,000 people did this in 2001. In some of the StatsCan tables, these people have been integrated into a group along with those who checked the box called No Religious Affiliation. However, in some of StatsCan s literature, only data from the No Religion checkbox is included. This is why sometimes you ll see No Religion reported as 16.2% and sometimes at 16.5% for 2001. This data is used for a wide variety of purposes including government legislation and our community has been underrepresented in society for far too long. The more credible numbers we have at our disposal that accurately report the size of our large and quickly growing community, the faster this will cease to be the case.