Clergy supply, deployment, and attrition in the Diocese of Melbourne

ANGLICAN CHURCH OF AUSTRALIA Clergy supply, deployment, and attrition in the Diocese of Melbourne A PAPER FOR THE BISHOP PERRY INSTITUTE FOR MINISTRY AND MISSION June 2015 Colin Reilly 1. OVERVIEW... 3 2. METHODOLOGY... 4 3. DEMOGRAPHIC ENVIRONMENT... 4 4. ORDINATIONS... 8 5. WHERE ARE MELBOURNE ORDINANDS NOW?... 11 6. CLERGY CHARACTERISTICS... 13 7. DEPLOYMENT... 17 8. CHANGES IN THE ACTIVE MINISTRY COHORT... 19 9. THE AUSTRALIAN CONTEXT... 21 10. FURTHER RESEARCH... 24 REFERENCES... 24

Table 1 Active Anglican clergy and the census in the Diocese of Melbourne, 1861 to 2011... 6 Table 2 Census Anglicans and active clergy in Melbourne, Victoria, and Australia, 1961 to 2011... 7 Table 3 Ordination source for Australian active clergy, 1961 to 2011... 9 Table 4 Ordination of deacons in the Diocese of Melbourne and Australia, 1837 to 2015... 9 Table 5 Diaconal ordination of active clergy in Melbourne, 1961 to 2014... 10 Table 6 Deacons ordained in Melbourne from 1961, active & not in directory, 1971 to 2014... 12 Table 7 Melbourne deacons ordained from 1961 to 1970: whereabouts and participation level, 1971 to 2014... 13 Table 8 Ordained experience and average age of active clergy in the Diocese of Melbourne, 1850 to 2014... 14 Table 9 Average age of Victorian active clergy, 1961 to 2014... 14 Table 10 Average years of ordained experience of Victorian active clergy, 1961 to 2014... 15 Table 11 Gender of Melbourne active clergy, 1961 to 2014... 17 Table 12 Melbourne clergy deployment summary, 1961 to 2014... 18 Table 13 Melbourne parish clergy deployment, 1991 to 2014... 18 Table 14 Active clergy in Australia: change by decades, 1961 to 2011... 19 Table 15 Active clergy in Melbourne: changing numbers, 1961 to 2014... 20 Table 16 Australian parishes, parish clergy & Census Anglicans by diocese, 2011... 21 Table 17 Anglicans per active cleric, 1991 and 2011... 22 Table 18 Anglican Church of Australia: Parishes, 1996 to 2011... 23 Figure 1 Anglicans as a proportion of the total population by province, 1891 to 2011... 5 Figure 2 Census Anglicans and parish clergy in the Diocese of Melbourne, 1911 to 2011... 7 Figure 3 Active clergy age profile, Diocese of Melbourne, 1961 to 2014... 16 Figure 4 Rates of change of active clergy numbers in the Diocese of Melbourne, 1961 to 2011... 19 Feedback and comments on this paper are welcome. They can be directed to the author at colre@bigpond.com or 0404 819 038

Then he said to his disciples, The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest. Matthew 9:38-39 1. OVERVIEW 1.1 The report of the Viabilities & Structures Task Force to the 2014 meeting of the General Synod of the Anglican Church of Australia has drawn the attention of the national church to a serious situation: The Anglican Church of Australia is at a crossroad. For over 30 years it has been slowly declining and the time has come for a revolution if it is to be a strong and sustainable church for the future. (Anglican Church of Australia 2014, 8-005) 1.2 In its report to the 2010 meeting of General Synod the Ministry Commission noted that the fundamental focus for the Commission's work is the nature of ministry (lay and ordained) in twenty-first century Australia, including as one of three areas (b) sustaining vocations (supervision, review, support this includes consideration of ageing profile, ministry in rural Australia) (Anglican Church of Australia 2014, 5 073). 1.3 This report presents some information about active clergy in the Diocese of Melbourne that might inform consideration of the issues raised by the Viabilities & Structures Task Force and the Ministry Commission. 1.4 Some general observations can be drawn from the detailed data in this report: The number of Anglicans in Melbourne has fallen by 29% over the last half century while the total population has doubled (Table 1) The number of active clergy in Melbourne has stabilised, but has been increasing in the rest of the Australian Church (Table 2) Melbourne ordinations are sufficient to replace clergy who die or retire, but not to replace clergy who leave to minister elsewhere or leave active ministry for other reasons (Table 15) The turnover rate of the active clergy in Melbourne each decade has been increasing and now more than half the active clergy have left active ministry in Melbourne within ten years (Table 15) Fewer clergy die in service or in the early years of retirement, but the retirement rate has been increasing (Table 15) The average age of clergy is increasing in Melbourne, but at a similar rate to other Victorian dioceses (Table 9) The average length of ordained experience of clergy is declining slightly (Table 8) Melbourne has a higher proportion of female clergy than the rest of Australia, but it is lower than in some other dioceses in Victoria (Table 11) The number of incumbents is in decline in Melbourne, but there has been an increase in assistant clergy and in charge appointments in parishes (Table 13) Page 3 of 24

2. METHODOLOGY 2.1 This report provides data derived from an analysis of the 1961, 1971 and 1981 national clergy lists in the Diocese of Sydney Year Book (Anglican Church of Australia. Diocese of Sydney), the 1991 edition of The Australian Anglican Clergy Directory (Anglican Media 1991) and the 2001 (Angela Grutzner & Associates 2001), 2011 (Publishing Solutions 2010) and 2014 (Publishing Solutions 2014) editions of The Australian Anglican Directory [AAD] and data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Population Censuses (Australian Bureau of Statistics 2014). For the pre-1961 period data has principally been derived from the Melbourne Yearbook (Anglican Church of Australia. Diocese of Melbourne, n.d.). 2.2 Clergy have been counted as active if they are listed as holding a current ecclesiastical position in a diocese in the relevant directory. Where clergy are retired but continue to exercise some ministry they have nevertheless not been counted as active. Where a cleric holds a PTO (permission to officiate) licence but his or her chief occupation is clearly related to religious duties (e.g. an Anglican cleric teaching in a non Anglican theological educational institution or a priest engaged in religious broadcasting) that person has been counted as active. A person licensed in more than one diocese is counted against the diocese in which the majority of his or her ministry takes place or, if that is not clear, against the diocese of residence. 2.3 No attempt has been made to distinguish between part-time, honorary and full-time active clergy because the available information is incomplete and does not give sufficient detail to calculate full-time equivalent numbers. 2.4 The numbers of active clergy in this report are lower than those published in the statistics page of the AAD it is possible that the AAD includes all clergy other than retired clergy in its active category. 3. DEMOGRAPHIC ENVIRONMENT 3.1 In the earlier years of European settlement Anglicans comprised more than half the Australian population. By 1891 that was still true in Tasmania and Western Australia, but since then, with immigration and social change, the proportion of Anglicans has diminished markedly (Figure 1). Ecclesiastically, there are now three distinct groups. Tasmania, least affected by immigration, has the highest concentration of Anglicans in the nation (26%). The provinces of New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia have Anglican populations of just under 20%. Victoria, most affected by immigration, and South Australia, with its free settlement heritage, have Anglican populations of just over 12%. Page 4 of 24

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1891 1901 1911 1921 1933 1947 1954 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011-10% Extra-provincial (Tasmania) Queensland Victoria New South Wales South Australia Western Australia Figure 1 Anglicans as a proportion of the total population by province, 1891 to 2011 3.2 In Victoria population change has occurred at different paces in the metropolitan area and in the rest of the State as shown in Table 2. The number of Anglicans fell by 29% between 1961 and 2011 in the Diocese of Melbourne, but by only 15% in the country dioceses. With an increasing total population, only 11% are now Anglicans in the Diocese of Melbourne and 17% in the remainder of Victoria. 3.3 Table 2 presents some information on the relationship of active clergy to the Anglican population. This prompts the question: is there an optimum number for this ratio that would indicate whether or not there are sufficient clergy to meet the church s needs? 3.4 In the late 1980s a Melbourne investigation worked on the basis of 10% of protestant Christians attending church and that for Anglicans the proportion was perhaps between 5 and 10%. Using the then costs for maintaining a parish with one full-time priest it was calculated that a population of 4,320 nominal (census) Anglicans was required to to support a one priest parish. (Anglican Diocese of Melbourne: Department of Evangelism and Church Growth 1988) 3.5 In England it is estimated that over 40% of the total population (53m in 2011) are Anglican. This gives an Anglican population of at least 21 million. There were 11,375 active licensed clergy in 2012 or one cleric for every 1,864 Anglicans. (Church of England 2014) 3.6 In The Episcopal Church [USA] in 2011 there were 18,040 clergy (including retired) one for every 105 active baptised members. (Clergy Pension Group Office of Research 2013) Page 5 of 24

3.7 In the Anglican Church of Australia, the number of active clergy has been rising as the proportion of Census Anglicans in the Australian population has been falling. Census Anglicans reached a peak of 4 million in 1991 and fell to 3.7 million in 2011. However, the rate of decline was lower in the latest inter-census period (2006 to 2011) than in earlier periods. 3.8 Census and active clergy figures for the Diocese of Melbourne can be calculated from 1861. Table 1 Active Anglican clergy and the census in the Diocese of Melbourne, 1861 to 2011 3.9 The diocese initially comprised the whole of the Colony in Victoria but was subdivided in 1875 and 1902. So from the time of the first Commonwealth Census in 1911 it is possible to present the number of parish clergy and Census Anglicans per cleric for the present boundaries of the diocese (Figure 2). From this it would appear that there is no direct correlation between these two numbers. However, it is possible that there is a lag effect, with the number of parish clergy reaching a peak in 1991, thirty-seven years after the peak in numbers of twentieth century Census Anglicans per cleric in 1954. As the ordinands of the 1960s and 1970s retire they are not quite being replaced. (Although the total number of active clergy has stabilised, school chaplaincy has grown at the expense of parish ministry.) 3.10 From one perspective it could be said that the declining ratio of Anglicans to clergy puts additional strain on parishioners to support their clergy. Another point of view would say that the potential for the church has never been greater with more non- Anglicans to be evangelised for every stipendiary cleric. Page 6 of 24

4,000 400 3,500 350 Anglicans per parish cleric (line) 3,000 300 2,500 250 2,000 200 1,500 150 1,000 100 Number of parish clergy (bars) 500 50 0 0 1911 1921 1947 1954 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Census year Parish clergy Anglicans per parish cleric Figure 2 Census Anglicans and parish clergy in the Diocese of Melbourne, 1911 to 2011 Table 2 Census Anglicans and active clergy in Melbourne, Victoria, and Australia, 1961 to 2011 Census year Melbourne Victoria Australia CENSUS ANGLICANS 1961 654,332 893,159 3,668,940 1971 676,864 892,568 3,953,204 1981 574,336 777,551 3,810,469 1991 551,637 772,632 4,004,755 2001 489,493 715,407 3,881,162 2011 464,411 666,472 3,679,907 Change 1961 to 2011-29% -25% 0% TOTAL POPULATION 1961 2,109,176 2,930,113 10,508,186 1971 2,688,419 3,502,351 12,755,638 1981 3,017,520 3,832,443 14,576,330 1991 3,274,256 4,244,249 17,284,036 2001 3,550,871 4,687,264 18,972,350 2011 4,233,276 5,401,852 21,507,719 Change 1961 to 2011 101% 84% 105% Page 7 of 24

Census year Melbourne Victoria Australia PROPORTION ANGLICAN 1961 31.0% 30.5% 34.9% 1971 25.2% 25.5% 31.0% 1981 19.0% 20.3% 26.1% 1991 16.8% 18.2% 23.2% 2001 13.8% 15.3% 20.5% 2011 11.0% 12.3% 17.1% Change 1961 to 2011-65% -60% -51% ACTIVE CLERGY 1961 280 438 1,717 1971 343 521 2,000 1981 350 539 2,053 1991 425 597 2,339 2001 364 494 2,324 2011 378 504 2,486 Change 1961 to 2011 35% 15% 45% CENSUS ANGLICANS PER ACTIVE CLERIC 1961 2,337 2,039 2,137 1971 1,973 1,713 1,977 1981 1,641 1,443 1,856 1991 1,304 1,294 1,712 2001 1,345 1,448 1,670 2011 1,229 1,322 1,480 Change 1961 to 2011-47% -35% -31% POPULATION PER ACTIVE CLERIC 1961 7,533 6,690 6,120 1971 7,838 6,722 6,378 1981 8,621 7,110 7,100 1991 7,741 7,109 7,389 2001 9,755 9,488 8,164 2011 11,199 10,718 8,652 Change 1961 to 2011 49% 60% 41% 4. ORDINATIONS 4.1 Melbourne diaconal ordinations since the arrival of Bishop Perry are shown in Table 4. 4.2 As can be seen from Table 15 Melbourne ordinations have been sufficient to cover exits from ministry due to retirement or death. But there are other exits some clergy leave Melbourne to minister elsewhere in Australia or overseas, others move to the PTO lists because they cannot find an appropriate placement or wish to pursue other activities, some disappear from the directories because they change denomination, leave ministry because of relationship difficulties or for disciplinary reasons, lose their faith, or just wish to withdraw from the institutional church for a period. How are these clergy replaced? Principally by importing clergy from other dioceses in Australia or Page 8 of 24

overseas, supplemented with a few clergy received from other denominations, mainly Roman Catholics. Table 5 shows where the Melbourne active clergy were ordained. 4.3 As a whole, the Australian Church has become less reliant on overseas ordained clergy. Melbourne and Victorian ordained clergy are a significant but declining portion of the active clergy population of Australia: Table 3 Ordination source for Australian active clergy, 1961 to 2011 Where ordained 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 New South Wales 38% 38% 41% 39% 41% 46% Queensland 9% 11% 12% 15% 16% 13% South Australia 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% Tasmania 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% Melbourne 11% 13% 14% 16% 14% 13% Other Victoria 13% 9% 9% 7% 7% 5% Western Australia 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 7% Total Australia 86% 85% 91% 93% 94% 93% Overseas 14% 15% 9% 6% 5% 5% Other denominations 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Unknown 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Table 4 Ordination of deacons in the Diocese of Melbourne and Australia, 1837 to 2015 NOTE: The figures for the latest period (2012-2016) should be treated with some caution as the total number for Australia is probably understated. Earlier periods are believed to be fairly complete but are subject to revision as more investigation is carried out on clergy for whom the compiler at present has insufficient information to determine diocese of ordination. It is Page 9 of 24

unlikely, however, that this will significantly alter the proportion figure of Melbourne's contribution to the national ordination tally. Table 5 Diaconal ordination of active clergy in Melbourne, 1961 to 2014 Page 10 of 24

5. WHERE ARE MELBOURNE ORDINANDS NOW? 5.1 What is the ministry experience of ordinands over time? The following table presents two aspects of the ministry lifespan of Melbourne clergy. For each cohort of deacons ordained in a ten year period their standing at decade intervals from 1971 to 2011 and for 2014 is shown. The active clergy are those who were listed in the Sydney Year Book or the Australian Anglican [Clergy] Directory for each year as being in some form of active ministry in the Australian Church or in an organisation supporting the church (e.g. non-anglican theological education institutions that cater for Anglicans). The not in directory clergy are those who no longer appear in the Directory. Some of these are engaged in active ministry overseas, but many have slipped away and no longer hold a licence of any kind. 5.2 The proportional figures are probably the more informative. They show, for each cohort how, as would be expected, the proportion of clergy remaining in active ministry falls over time with death, retirement, resignation, and failure to find a new position once one placement has ended. 5.3 The numbers in the table are coloured in diagonal lines to assist in comparing like with like. For example the red figures indicate the third decade of each cohort. So it can be seen that 59% of the 1961-1970 group of ordinands were still in active ministry somewhere in Australia during their third decade, but only 49% of the 1981-1990 cohort were still in active ministry in the same period after ordination. This is partly explained by the rising average age at ordination, and hence ministry cut short by retirement. A further factor was the acceptance of the ordination of women, which led to a number of mature age ordinations. The general trend seems to be a decline in the proportion of ordinands remaining in active ministry and an increase in the proportion no longer holding a licence of any kind. Page 11 of 24

Table 6 Deacons ordained in Melbourne from 1961, active & not in directory, 1971 to 2014 Ordained deacon in Total deacons ordained 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2014 (a) NUMBER OF ACTIVE CLERGY IN AUSTRALIA 1961-1970 128 107 86 76 50 5 4 1971-1980 112 101 93 79 48 35 1981-1990 144 125 85 65 47 1991-2000 111 87 66 54 2001-2010 164 138 114 2011-2013 (a) 51 43 NUMBER NOT IN DIRECTORY NOT KNOWN TO HAVE DIED 1961-1970 9 21 25 21 24 25 1971-1980 8 12 12 18 25 1981-1990 15 23 28 35 1991-2000 12 21 26 2001-2010 13 24 2011-2013 (a) 6 PROPORTION STILL ACTIVE IN AUSTRALIA 1961-1970 84% 67% 59% 39% 4% 3% 1971-1980 90% 83% 71% 43% 31% 1981-1990 87% 59% 45% 33% 1991-2000 78% 59% 49% 2001-2010 84% 70% 2011-2013 (a) 84% PROPORTION NOT IN DIRECTORY NOT KNOWN TO HAVE DIED 1961-1970 7% 16% 19% 16% 19% 20% 1971-1980 7% 11% 11% 16% 22% 1981-1990 10% 16% 19% 24% 1991-2000 11% 19% 23% 2001-2010 8% 15% 2011-2013 (a) 12% (a) For 3 years only, so not directly comparable to figures for previous decade periods. 5.4 For a church that has a polity of lifelong ordination vows, the proportion of clergy that disappears from the system as indicated by the proportion not in directory figures is disturbing. When coupled with clergy who remain in the system but move to the PTO lists before retirement, there is a significant wastage of ministry resources. Some of the disappearances relate to clergy who leave Australia to minister overseas, a few are because of name changes, and some are no doubt due to action taken with respect to power and trust issues, but this is unlikely to explain all the attrition shown here. (If it does, the professional standards problem facing the church is much greater than we have been led to believe.) 5.5 The proportional figures are given in Table 7 for the 1961-1970 cohort, which has now reached retirement age. Page 12 of 24

Table 7 Melbourne deacons ordained from 1961 to 1970: whereabouts and participation level, 1971 to 2014 Whereabouts and participation level 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2014 Victoria Active 94 69 58 38 4 3 Other not retired (incl PTO) 11 8 6 3 2 2 Retired 0 4 9 23 44 42 Total Victoria 105 81 73 64 50 47 Other Australia Active 13 17 18 12 1 1 Other not retired (incl PTO) 0 5 2 0 2 0 Retired 0 1 1 12 12 11 Total other Australia 13 23 21 24 15 12 Not in directory not known to have died 9 21 25 21 24 25 Deceased 1 3 9 19 39 44 Total 128 128 128 128 128 128 Proportion Active 84% 67% 59% 39% 4% 3% Other not retired (incl PTO) 9% 10% 6% 2% 3% 2% Retired 0% 4% 8% 27% 44% 41% Not in directory not known to have died 7% 16% 20% 16% 19% 20% Deceased 1% 2% 7% 15% 30% 34% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 6. CLERGY CHARACTERISTICS 6.1 This section presents some information on the age, experience (years since diaconal ordination), and gender of Melbourne active clergy. Some historical indicators of relative experience (average years since ordained deacon) and age are given in Table 8. 6.2 The average age of Melbourne clergy has been 45 or above since the 1870s, rising to 53 during the Second World War, falling again until the 1960s, and then on a continuous gradual rise to the current average age of about 55. For the 83% of clergy for whom a birth year is known, the average age in 2014 is 55 (higher than any prior year in a sample taken each decade from 1850 as shown in Table 8). There may be some skewing of the data in that the age of the more recent ordinands is less likely to be known. Nevertheless, even if the average age of the sixty clergy for whom a birth year has not yet been published was, say, 30, it would only reduce the overall average age to 52, still significantly above the average age of late forties from 1954 to 1991. Average age does not tell all see Figure 3 for a depiction of the underlying age profiles. Page 13 of 24

Table 8 Ordained experience and average age of active clergy in the Diocese of Melbourne, 1850 to 2014 6.3 Table 9 shows that the Melbourne average age has increased in a similar fashion to the other dioceses of the province. Table 9 Average age of Victorian active clergy, 1961 to 2014 Total active Total with Proportion Year clergy age with age Victoria Ballarat Bendigo Gippsland Melbourne St Arnaud Wangaratta 1961 439 438 100% 46 46 47 47 46 47 49 1971 522 520 100% 47 47 45 46 47 44 46 1981 534 534 100% 47 48 47 48 47 48 1991 599 597 100% 49 47 48 52 49 46 2001 499 497 100% 52 52 53 55 52 53 2011 511 475 93% 55 53 57 58 54 57 2014 526 443 84% 56 55 57 59 55 61 Page 14 of 24

6.4 With rising ages at the time of ordination, the average length of ordained experience of active clergy has been falling in all Victorian dioceses, but not by as much as their age has been increasing. Lack of clerical experience may therefore be compensated for by greater life experience. As the year of ordination is known for all but a handful of Victorian active clergy, the average figures here are very reliable. Table 10 Average years of ordained experience of Victorian active clergy, 1961 to 2014 Year Victoria Ballarat Bendigo Gippsland Melbourne St Arnaud Wangaratta 1961 18 16 16 19 18 17 20 1971 17 17 15 15 18 14 17 1981 18 17 17 16 19 19 1991 17 17 15 19 17 14 2001 18 21 18 16 18 20 2011 17 19 14 15 17 18 2014 16 18 13 15 16 17 6.5 Age and gender profiles for active Melbourne clergy shown in Figure 3 reveal a reversal over time from 1961 where (apart from the under 30 group) the usual demographic pyramid pattern of smaller numbers as age increases prevails, but by 2014 the reverse occurs for both genders. While this could be said to anticipate an ageing profile in the general population, it should be a matter of concern for a church that needs to address the younger generations for its longer term survival. 6.6 Women in ordained ministry make up 29% of all Victorian active clergy, compared to about 23% nationally. Within the province Gippsland has the highest proportion (45%), followed by Bendigo and Wangaratta with a third each, then Melbourne with 27% and Ballarat (12%). Page 15 of 24

Age unknown 70 & over 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 Under 30 1961 Age unknown 70 & over 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 Under 30 2001-50 0 50 100 150-50 0 50 100 150 A ge unknown 70 & over 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 Under 30 1971 Age unknown 70 & over 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 Under 30 50 50 100 150 50 50 100 150 2011 Age unknown 70 & over 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 Under 30 1981 Age unknown 70 & over 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 Under 30 2014 50 50 100 150 50 50 100 150 Total active clergy 1991 Female Male Age unknown 500 70 & over 400 60-69 50-59 300 40-49 30-39 Under 30 200 100 0 50 50 100 150 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2014 Figure 3 Active clergy age profile, Diocese of Melbourne, 1961 to 2014 Page 16 of 24

Table 11 Gender of Melbourne active clergy, 1961 to 2014 Year Victoria Ballarat Bendigo Gippsland Melbourne St Arnaud Wangaratta FEMALE 1991 41 1 38 2 2001 73 3 5 64 1 2011 137 3 16 14 98 6 2014 150 4 16 18 101 11 MALE 1961 440 52 28 32 280 21 25 1971 522 49 26 44 343 25 36 1981 534 61 53 37 350 36 1991 558 53 43 34 385 43 2001 426 36 36 23 301 30 2011 374 25 24 19 280 26 2014 376 29 31 22 272 22 FEMALE AS PROPORTION OF TOTAL 1991 7% 0% 2% 0% 9% 4% 2001 15% 0% 8% 18% 18% 3% 2011 27% 11% 40% 42% 26% 19% 2014 29% 12% 34% 45% 27% 33% 7. DEPLOYMENT 7.1 The dominant focus of active clergy in Melbourne is parochial ministry. Within sector ministry there has been a marked growth in school chaplaincy and growth then diminution of industrial chaplaincy. At the centre more clergy are engaged in various aspects of theological education. (Table 12) 7.2 In Table 13 a breakdown is given of parish clergy from 1961 to 2014. This shows an increase of in charge appointments and of assistant clergy in parishes. This is partly due to the reduction in the number of parishes through closures and amalgamations. 7.3 Despite the fall in the number of parishes, 33% more clergy are engaged in the parish sector in 2014 than in 1961 and the number of clergy per parish has risen by 27% from 1.1 in 1961 to 1.4 in 2014. There appears to be a slow change from a paradigm of the sole practitioner model of parish ministry to a multi-staffed parish model. This could be analogous to the move away from the sole practitioner to group practitioner model by family doctors and solicitors. Page 17 of 24

Table 12 Melbourne clergy deployment summary, 1961 to 2014 Activity group 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2014 Centre Oversight 3 5 4 7 4 4 4 Support 1 3 5 6 4 1 1 Cathedral 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 Theological education 4 12 8 15 13 18 19 Summary for Centre Total 11 23 20 32 24 26 27 Proportion of total 4% 7% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% Parochial Parochial 215 257 255 298 280 276 285 Proportion of total 77% 76% 73% 70% 77% 73% 76% Sector ministry Defence 3 4 5 3 3 7 3 Education 18 25 27 33 32 43 40 Health & welfare 24 22 26 28 15 19 14 Industrial 4 5 11 21 7 2 1 Summary for Sector ministry Total 49 56 69 85 57 71 58 Proportion of total 18% 16% 20% 20% 16% 19% 16% Other Mission 3 4 5 6 2 5 3 Religious order nei 1 2 1 Ecumenical 1 1 1 1 1 Summary for Other Total 5 7 6 8 3 5 3 Proportion of total 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% Total Melbourne active clergy 280 343 350 423 364 378 373 NOTE: In this table Centre refers to central diocesan functions with Oversight including bishops and full-time archdeacons. In Other, Mission is principally clergy working with mission agencies to promote their activities and Religious order nei (not elsewhere included) are members of religious orders who are not engaged directly in, say, parish ministry or as chaplains. Table 13 Melbourne parish clergy deployment, 1961 to 2014 Parishes Clergy per Total parish In Assistant Ethnic Year (a) parish clergy Incumbent charge Locum cleric chaplaincy 1961 198 1.09 215 91 77 44 1971 232 1.11 257 130 75 8 42 1981 233 1.09 255 167 43 6 36 1991 243 1.22 297 177 40 7 70 3 2001 228 1.23 280 153 50 5 69 3 2011 207 1.33 276 124 51 4 95 2 2014 Change 1961 to 2014 207 4.5% 1.38 26.6% 285 32.6% 108 (b) 18.6% 62-19.5% 2 111 152.3% 2 (a) Including parochial districts in 1961 (79) and 1971 (75) and 2001 (1) and Authorised Anglican congregations in 2014 (2). (b) Excludes ministers in 1961 and 1971 who were in charge of parochial districts and did not have the same rights as incumbents of parishes. Page 18 of 24

8. CHANGES IN THE ACTIVE MINISTRY COHORT 8.1 In Australia the number of active clergy has been growing steadily over the past half century (Table 14). By 2011 the number of active clergy had grown by 731 from the 1961 figure of 1,737 (an increase of 42%). Table 14 Active clergy in Australia: change by decades, 1961 to 2011 Period Active at beginning Entries to active ministry Exits from active ministry Returning to active Newly ordained Overseas Australian Overseas Australian ordained ordained ordained ordained pre during during pre period period period period Deaths Retirements Other Active at end 1961-1971 1,713 113 91 658 33-207 -235-163 2,003 1971-1981 2,094 136 66 589 15-181 -351-231 2,137 1981-1991 2,048 137 0 850 0-127 -427-316 2,165 1991-2001 2,165 112 117 792 15-93 -514-293 2,301 2001-2011 2,301 111 80 1,047 37-105 -612-394 2,465 NOTE: Deaths include those clergy who died whilst still in active ministry and those who retired, but died before the next decade began. Discrepancies between the number of clergy shown here to be active at the end of each decade (calculated by adding the entries to ministry and subtracting the exits from ministry from the number of clergy active at the beginning of the period) and the number shown to be active at the beginning of the next decade are due to the incomplete classification of some data in the earlier decades and double counting of clergy who were simultaneously listed in more than one diocese. 8.2 Compared to the rest of Australia, the number of active clergy in Melbourne has been relatively stable, but was still higher by 19% in 2014 than in 1961. Decade changes for 1961 to 2011 are shown in Table 15, together with the period from 2011 to the publication of the 2014 edition of the AAD and the total movement from 1961 to 2014. 8.3 Apart from the 1990s, which included a particularly high number of retirements and some clergy who left over the ordination of women, there has been a net increase in clergy numbers in every decade. Since at least 1961 there has been a high turnover of clergy. This rate is increasing, driven partly by the shorter ministry life associated with later ordination ages, but also by a rising proportion of clergy who move to the PTO lists or go ex directory before reaching retirement. The number of clergy leaving Melbourne for active ministry elsewhere in Australia has been relatively stable and is more than covered by imports from the rest of the country to Melbourne. Figure 4 Rates of change of active clergy numbers in the Diocese of Melbourne, 1961 to 2011 Stayers is the proportion of clergy who were active at the beginning and end of the period; refreshment is newcomers or returners to the diocese, and turnover is the proportion of clergy who leave active ministry during the period. 60% 40% 20% 0% 1961 to 1971 to 1981 to 1991 to 2001 to 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Stayers rate Refreshment rate Turnover rate Page 19 of 24

Table 15 Active clergy in Melbourne: changing numbers, 1961 to 2014 1961 to 1971 Number at start of period 280 INS Ordained during period: 1971 to 1981 1981 to 1991 1991 to 2001 2001 to 2011 2011 to 2014 1961 to 2014 343 350 423 365 378 280 Melbourne 87 80 121 89 121 63 561 Other Australia 12 7 17 13 6 1 56 Overseas 3 2 7 2 6 2 22 Total ordained during period 102 89 145 104 133 66 639 Ordained pre beginning of period: Melbourne 17 49 27 15 12 3 123 Other Australia 66 24 47 49 58 29 273 Overseas 8 14 12 5 13 7 59 Roman Catholic 1 1 2 Total prior ordained 91 87 87 70 83 39 457 TOTAL INS OUTS Death 193 30 176 30 232 22 174 12 216 9 105 5 1,096 Retirement 28 51 73 109 82 33 376 Active ministry other Australia 39 35 36 51 40 18 219 PTO and other in directory 15 26 8 24 35 24 132 Ex directory 18 27 20 36 37 30 168 TOTAL OUTS 130 169 159 232 203 110 1,003 Number at end of period 343 350 423 365 378 373 373 Number active at both start and end Propn starters still active (stayers rate) 150 54% Propn finishers not at start 56% 50% 55% 48% 57% Propn starters ex directory 6% 8% 6% 9% 10% Propn starters neither active nor retired nor died 12% 15% 8% 14% 20% Propn INS to starters (refreshment rate) 69% 51% 66% 41% 59% 174 51% 191 55% 191 45% 162 44% 268 108 Propn INS ordained in Melbourne 54% 73% 64% 60% 62% Propn OUTS to starters (turnover rate) 46% 49% 45% 55% 56% Death rate 11% 9% 6% 3% 2% Retirement rate 10% 15% 21% 26% 22% INS - OUTS (net change) 63 7 73-58 13-5 93 Net change as propn of start number 23% 2% 21% -14% 4% -1% 19% Melbourne ordinations less deaths and retirements 29-1 26-32 30 25 77 Page 20 of 24

9. THE AUSTRALIAN CONTEXT 9.1 Here are some comparative data for the whole of the Australian Church. Table 16 Australian parishes, parish clergy & Census Anglicans by diocese, 2011 Page 21 of 24

Table 17 Anglicans per active cleric, 1991 and 2011 Page 22 of 24

Table 18 Anglican Church of Australia: Parishes, 1996 to 2011 Page 23 of 24

10. FURTHER RESEARCH 10.1 Examination of clergy numbers is a proxy for assessing the health of the church. It can be misleading without comprehensive information about other aspects of church life, such as finances, attendances, and other forms of participation. 10.2 The clergy statistics presented here show some trends but conceal myriad individual stories. 10.2 A particular shortcoming of the statistics given here is the difficulty of tracking the activities of clergy who leave Australia to minister elsewhere. If a similar policy to that of Crockford s Clerical Directory (whereby career details are maintained of all clergy who have served in the British Isles) were to be adopted by the publishers of the Australian Anglican Directory it would serve both the affected clergy and the Australian Church well. 10.3 Further analysis could confirm whether there are two (or more) clergy streams transitory and truly vocational. 10.4 Many of the observations in this report are being offered in a vacuum as comparative data has not yet been discovered from elsewhere in the Anglican Communion to identify whether changes in clergy ministry patterns in Melbourne are unique or merely local expressions of more widespread trends. The data does exist to attempt such analyses for the rest of the Australian Church. It is likely that the Diocese of Sydney, and perhaps others, have had a different experience from Melbourne over recent decades. REFERENCES Angela Grutzner & Associates. 2001. The Australian Anglican Directory 2001. Malvern, Vic: Angela Grutzner & Associates. Anglican Church of Australia. 2014. Report of the Viability & Structures Task Force: The Sixteenth General Synod Book 8. The Standing Committee of the General Synod of The Anglican Church of Australia. Anglican Church of Australia. Diocese of Melbourne. n.d. Yearbook of the Diocese of Melbourne. Melbourne. Anglican Church of Australia. Diocese of Sydney. n.d. Year Book of the Diocese of Sydney. Sydney: Diocesan Registry. Anglican Diocese of Melbourne: Department of Evangelism and Church Growth. 1988. Policy Guidelines for New Area Development, the Planting of New Churches, and Redeployment of Parish Property. Anglican Media. 1991. The Australian Anglican Clergy Directory. Melbourne: Anglican Media. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 2014. Population Census. Accessed June 27. http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/census?opendocument#frombanner=gt. Church of England. 2014. The Church of England Year Book 2014: A Directory of Local and National Structures and Organizations and the Churches and Provinces of the Anglican Communion. 130th ed. London: Church House Publishing. Clergy Pension Group Office of Research. 2013. The State of the Clergy 2012: A Report for The Episcopal Church. Clergy Pension Group. https://www.cpg.org/linkservid/dc3ee5a8-f95c-2278-107475f87bfdb2aa/showmeta/0/?label=report-state%20of%20the%20clergy%202012. Publishing Solutions. 2010. The Australian Anglican Directory 2011. Doncaster Heights Vic: Angela Grutzner.. 2014. The Australian Anglican Directory 2014. Oak Park, Vic: Publishing Solutions. Page 24 of 24