GLOBAL EXPOSURE AUGUST 2012
Arab Spring Leads to Islamic Autumn One year after the Arab Spring revolutions, has it turned into a nightmare? By Charles Krauthammer GLOBAL EXPOSURE P ost-revolutionary Libya appears to have elected a relatively moderate pro-western government. Good news, but tentative because Libya is less a country than an oil well with a long beach and myriad tribes. Popular allegiance to a central national authority is weak. Even if the government of Mahmoud Jibril is able to rein in the militias and establish a functioning democracy, it will be the Arab Spring exception. Consider: Tunisia and Morocco, the most Westernized of all of the Arab countries, elected
GLOBAL EXPOSURE Islamist governments. They are moderate, to be sure, but Islamist still. Egypt, the largest and most influential, has experienced an Islamist sweep. The Muslim Brotherhood didn t just win the presidency. It won nearly half the seats in parliament, while more openly radical Islamists won 25 percent. Combined, they command more than 70 percent of parliament-- enough to control the writing of a constitution (which is why the generals hastily dissolved parliament). As for Syria, if and when Bashar al-assad falls, the Brotherhood will almost certainly inherit power. Jordan could well be next. And the Brotherhood s Palestinian wing (Hamas) already controls Gaza. What does this mean? It constitutes the third stage of modern Arab political history. Stage I was the semi-colonial-monarchic rule, dominated by Britain and France, of the first half of the 20th century. Stage II was the Arab nationalist era--secular, socialist, anticolonial and anti-clerical--ushered in by the 1952 Free Officers Revolt in Egypt. Its vehicle was military dictatorship and Gamal Nasser led the way. He raised the flag of pan-arabism, going so far as changing Egypt s name to the United Arab Republic and merging his country with Syria in 1958. That absurd experiment--it lasted exactly three years--was to have been the beginning of a grand Arab unification, which, of course, never came. Nasser also fiercely persecuted Islamists--as did his nationalist successors, down to Egypt s Hosni Mubarak and the Baathists, Iraqi (Saddam Hussein) and Syrian (the Assads)--as the reactionary antithesis to Arab modernism. The Arab Spring is a misnomer. This is an Islamist ascendancy, likely to dominate Arab politics for a generation. Pre-election demonstrations in Egypt But the self-styled modernism of the Arabnationalist dictators proved to be a dismal failure. It produced dsyfunctional, semisocialist, bureaucratic, corrupt regimes that left the citizenry (except where papered over by oil bounties) mired in poverty, indignity and repression. Hence the Arab Spring, the serial uprisings that spread east from Tunisia in early 2011. Many Westerners naively believed that the future belonged to the hip, secular, tweeting kids of Tahrir Square. Alas, this sliver of Westernization was no match for the highly organized, widely supported, politically serious Islamists who effortlessly swept them aside in national elections. This was not a Facebook revolution but the beginning of an Islamist one. Amid
GLOBAL EXPOSURE the ruins of secular nationalist pan- Arabism, the Muslim Brotherhood rose to solve the conundrum of Arab stagnation and marginality. Islam is the answer, it preached and carried the day. But what kind of political Islam? On that depends the future. The moderate Turkish version or the radical Iranian one? To be sure, Recep Erdogan s Turkey is no paragon. The increasingly authoritarian Erdogan has broken the military, neutered the judiciary and persecuted the press. There are more journalists in prison in Turkey than in China. Nonetheless, for now, Turkey remains relatively pro- Western (though unreliably so) and relatively democratic (compared to its Islamic neighborhood). Egypt Tunisia Started Jordan Iraq 25 January 2011 LibyaSyria Kuwait Algeria Started 17 December Started Lebanon President 2011 Started Started Hosni 14 10 Mubarak January February 2011 2011 overthrown and sentenced Started 17 February Started 15 March 2011 2011 Started President 28 December Zine UN Started El to Abidine life mandated 2011 12 Large-scale Prime 18 Minister February in January prison military Ben Ali 2011 protests Maliki 2011 overthrown and demonstrations announced not Yemen Resignations Resignation from intervention Parliament and government Demonstrations, 14 January 2011 NATO Prime protests, after Assumption intervention Minister 23 King running sit-ins years Abdullah for of 3rd Prime Hariri s of in control power government II by dismissed termminister Nasser Started 27 January the Armed Forces Large Mohammed 2011 overthrown two prime ministers defections from the Syrian army and clashes Lifting New constitution Suspension of the Overthrow 19-year-old All 11 states ministers and Resignations Al-Ahmed of President s their of the state leader resigned cabinets of provincial Al-Sabah governors and local President Ali Abdullah of Muammar emergency religion Constitution and dissolution of the between Dissolution Saleh soldiers and defectors Gaddafi 16 Ended shall be January Islam Parliament September Informal authorities of Parliament overthown after invalid elections Resignation of 2012 Violent 2011, Ended law Prime crackdowns, that later Minister Prime killed 20,000 Minister Al-Khasawneh by rebel - 30,000 must forces be resigned, killed Sunni Muslim King Thought to 25000-30000 be Sustained the Democratic spark chose Demonstrations, December Mujawar 2011 and MPs of ruling party civil for estimated Egyptian disorder fourth election Prime dead ongoing unrest held, Minister protests, riots Occupation of several areas by al-qaeda Mohamed and Houthi Mursi, rebels of the Suspended Ended from December the Arab league 2011 Presidential Muslim election Brotherhood held, Abd elected Rabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi elected Tap on a country name to see protests and elections For now, the new Islamist ascendancy in Arab lands has taken on the more benign Turkish aspect. Inherently so in Morocco and Tunisia; by external constraint in Egypt, where the military sees itself as guardian of the secular state, precisely as did Turkey s military in the 80 years from Ataturk to Erdogan. Genuinely democratic rule may yet come to Arab lands. Radical Islam is the answer to nothing, as demonstrated by the repression, social backwardness and civil strife of Taliban Afghanistan, Islamist Sudan and clerical Iran. As for moderate Islamism, if it eventually radicalizes, it too will fail and bring on yet another future Arab Spring where democracy might actually be the answer (as it likely would have been in Iran had the mullahs not savagely crushed the Green Revolution). Or it might adapt to modernity, accept the alternation of power with secularists and thus achieve by evolution an authentic Arab-Islamic democratic norm. Perhaps. The only thing we can be sure of today, however, is that Arab nationalism is dead and Islamism is its successor. This is what the Arab Spring has wrought. The beginning of wisdom is facing that difficult reality.
GLOBAL EXPOSURE AUGUST 2012
Arab Spring Leads to Islamic Autumn One year after the Arab Spring revolutions, has it turned into a nightmare? By Charles Krauthammer Post-revolutionary Libya appears to have elected a relatively moderate pro-western government. Good news, but tentative because Libya is less a country than an oil well with a long beach and myriad tribes. Popular allegiance to a central national authority is weak. Even if the Libyan government of Mahmoud Jibril is able to rein in the militias and establish a functioning democracy, it will be the Arab Spring exception. Consider: Tunisia and Morocco, the most Westernized of all of the Arab countries, elected GLOBAL EXPOSURE
GLOBAL EXPOSURE Islamist governments. They are moderate, to be sure, but Islamist still. Egypt, the largest and most influential, has experienced an Islamist sweep. The Muslim Brotherhood didn t just win the presidency. It won nearly half the seats in parliament, while more openly radical Islamists won 25 percent. Combined, they command more than 70 percent of parliament-- enough to control the writing of a constitution (which is why the generals hastily dissolved parliament). As for Syria, if and when Bashar al-assad falls, the Brotherhood will almost certainly inherit power. Jordan could well be next. And the Brotherhood s Palestinian wing (Hamas) already controls Gaza. What does this mean? The Arab Spring is a misnomer. This is an Islamist ascendancy, likely to dominate Arab politics for a generation. came. Nasser also fiercely persecuted Islamists --as did his nationalist successors, down to Egypt s Hosni Mubarak and the Baathists, Iraqi (Saddam Hussein) and Syrian (the Assads) -- as the reactionary antithesis to Arab modernism. But the self-styled modernism of the Arabnationalist dictators proved to be a dismal failure. It produced dsyfunctional, semi-socialist, bureaucratic, corrupt regimes that left the citizenry (except where papered over by oil bounties) mired in poverty and repression. Hence the Arab Spring, the serial uprisings that spread east from Tunisia in early 2011. Many Westerners naively believed that the future belonged to the hip, secular, tweeting kids of Tahrir Square. Alas, this sliver of Westernization was no match for the highly organized, widely supported, politically serious Islamists who effortlessly swept the hopeful aside in national elections throughout the region. This was not a Facebook revolution but the beginning of an Islamist one. Amid This constitutes the third stage of modern Arab political history. Stage I was the semi- colonial, semi- monarchic rule, dominated by Britain and France, during the first half of the 20th century. Stage II was the Arab nationalist era--an era of secular, socialist, anti-colonial and anti-clerical -- that was ushered in by the 1952 Free Officers Revolt in Egypt. Its vehicle was military dictatorship and Gamal Nasser led the way. He raised the flag of pan-arabism, going so far as changing Egypt s name to the United Arab Republic and merging his country with Syria in 1958. That absurd experiment--it lasted exactly three years--was to have been the beginning of a grand Arab unification, which, of course, never Pre-election demonstrations in Egypt
GLOBAL EXPOSURE the ruins of secular nationalist pan-arabism, the Muslim Brotherhood rose to solve the conundrum of Arab stagnation and marginality. Islam is the answer, it preached and carried the day. But what kind of political Islam? On that depends the future. The moderate Turkish version or the radical Iranian one? To be sure, Recep Erdogan s Turkey is no paragon. The increasingly authoritarian Erdogan has broken the military, neutered the judiciary and persecuted the press. There are more journalists in prison in Turkey than in China. Nonetheless, for now, Turkey remains relatively pro-western (though unreliably so) and relatively democratic (compared to its Islamic neighborhood). For now, the new Islamist ascendancy in Arab lands has taken on the more benign Turkish aspect. Inherently so in Morocco and Tunisia; by external constraint in Egypt, where the military sees itself as guardian of the secular state, precisely as did Turkey s military in the 80 years from Ataturk to Erdogan. Genuinely democratic rule may yet come to Arab lands. Radical Islam is the answer to nothing, as demonstrated by the repression, social backwardness and civil strife of Taliban Afghanistan, Islamist Sudan and clerical Iran. As for moderate Islamism, if it eventually radicalizes, it too will fail and bring on yet another future Arab Spring where democracy might actually be the answer (as it likely would have been in Iran had the mullahs not savagely crushed the Green Revolution). Or it might adapt to modernity, accept the alternation of power with secularists and thus achieve by evolution an authentic Arab - Islamic democratic norm. Perhaps. The only thing we can be sure of today, however, is that Arab nationalism is dead and Islamism is its successor. This is what the Arab Spring has wrought. The beginning of wisdom is facing that difficult new reality. Tap on a country name to see protests and elections Morocco Egypt Iraq Yemen Jordan Morocco Algeria Libya Started Syria25 Started January 102011 February 2011 Started Started 20 February 28 December Lebanon Started 2011 Started 2011 President Started 27 Started 14 January 2011 Kuwait January Prime 17 February Hosni 15 March Minister 2011 Mubarak 2011 2011 Maliki overthrown announced and sentenced not Political Demonstrations, concessions by protests, Started President King UN Mohammed to mandated sit-ins life 12 Large-scale in January prison military 2011 protests and demonstrations Resignations Started Ali running Abdullah 18 February VI from for Saleh 3rd intervention Parliament term 2011 overthown and government Referendum Lifting on of the constitutional 19-year-old Prime Resignation NATO Assumption reforms state Minister King Abdullah intervention of Hariri s II control government dismissed two by Armed overthrown prime ministers Large Resignation Resignations of defections Prime of Minister Prime from of provincial the Minister Mujawar Syrian governors Nasser army Forces and MPs and and clashes of ruling local New constitutional of emergency All provision Overthrow confirms Suspension 11 party between ministers and their King of leader of soldiers resigned cabinets Mohammed authorities the Al-Ahmed Muammar Constitution and defectors Gaddafi Al-Sabah and dissolution 16 of the as highest Ended religious January authority 2012 Informal Occupation Prime September Parliament Violent law Demonstrations, 2011, that Minister crackdowns, Prime Al-Khasawneh later killed Minister 20,000 protests, by rebel must - 30,000 riots forces be resigned, Sunni killedmuslim King Dissolution of several of areas Parliament by al-qaeda after invalid and Houthi elections rebels Sustained Presidential chose Ended November 2011 25000-30000 Democratic Suspended civil Ended fourth estimated disorder Prime election from December the ongoing Minister Ended election December held, held, Abd dead 2011 Arab Mohamed 2011 Rabbuh league Mansur Mursi, of Al-Hadi the elected Muslim Brotherhood elected